dc CB 23:06 GMT May 31, 2013
United States
Mtl JP 19:44 GMT May 31, 2013 - My Profile
United States: Reply
May 31, 2013, 3:19 p.m. EDT
Banks complain about QE3 to Fed
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
There is much consternation about what triggered today's rapid escalation of selling pressure in US stocks. As the evening wends on and traders sip their Absinthe, it appears an embargoed record of the Fed's Advisory Panel minutes was at least a major concern as it raised the very real specter that those in charge are concerned at the monster they have created:
"There is also concern about the possibility of a breakout of inflation, although current inflation risk is not considered unmanageable, and of an unsustainable bubble in equity and fixed-income markets given current prices."
"Unsustainable bubble"? And this not from some fringe blog but... bankers?
And some bonus words, which have to be read to be believed:
Uncertainty exists about how markets will reestablish normal valuations when the Fed withdraws from the market. It will likely be difficult to unwind policy accommodation, and the end of monetary easing may be painful for consumers and businesses. Given the Fed�s balance sheet increase of approximately $2.5 trillion since 2008, the Fed may now be perceived as integral to the housing finance system.
Uhm... wow.
The 34 Words That May Have Caused Today's Crash In Stocks
dc CB 21:00 GMT May 31, 2013
United States
took them 5 years and the Fines are Staggering:
Goldman Sachs and Glenn Hadden, one of Wall Street�s top traders, have been fined by the CME Group over a Treasury futures trade in 2008.
Goldman has been ordered to pay $875,000 and was cited for failure to supervise Mr. Hadden. Mr. Hadden has been ordered to pay $80,000.
CME Group Sanctions Goldman Sachs and Top Wall Street Trader
dc CB 20:57 GMT May 31, 2013
United States
there was a lot of portfolio rebalancing at the end of the day today. since Treasuries took such a big hit in the past week and a half...Funds that are required to have XXX allocated to Treas and XXX to Stox were forced to sell Stox and buy Treas.
Mon and Tues will be the days to watch.....Then a week or so og Gaming What Ben Will Do during Quad Witching Week....FMOC and Quad Witch June 17-21.
Mtl JP 20:47 GMT May 31, 2013
United States
DJIA lost 208.42 points to close at 15,116.11
about 100 points in the last half hour of trading
IF stox are assessing future ease of access to easy money remains to be seen how bond types assess same issue
dc CB 20:00 GMT May 31, 2013
United States
wrote last week:
dc CB 20:49 GMT May 25, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week : Reply
US May Bonuses set this week...then New Money June 3 to start the next week, then Tues Jun4 the 21st UP Tues in a row.
With another $85bln month of POMO and MBS Buying by the FED....
____________________________________________________
dc CB 01:22 GMT May 23, 2013
United States: Reply
continuing with POMO After the 3 day Weekend
Tues $1.25 - $1.75 billion
Wed $2.75 - $3.50 billion
Thurs $1.25 - $1.75 billion
Fri to End the New Highs Month $4.25 - $5.25 billion
If Stox sell off in the face of this? Which would include the 20th in a Row Up Tuesday(if it does occur...it will)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Only Tues UP proved out.
"""""If Stox sell off in the face of the?"""""
seem they are...if Mon and Tues don't recover...then I suspect a change in the game as the Control over the market that has been in place for years....Higher Stox PLUS Higher Bond Prices is slipping away from the Mainipulators.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:58 GMT May 31, 2013
Chart Points
Reply
UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close
data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.
dc CB 18:13 GMT May 31, 2013
United States
JP
it's still May for about 2 hours....still time to sell and go away. :)
look at IYR - ETF Real Estate bascially made up of about a 100 Property "Stocks" like shopping mall, hospitals, rental props. Was basically a Yield play. Look to sell yield plays. HYG - higrade corp.
5y Yield, cost of that Margin goin' up up up.
CHEER - FEAR = Yield Rate.
Mtl JP 18:04 GMT May 31, 2013
United States
dc CB 17:58 what trade(s) do you recommend on that ?
Lahore FM 18:03 GMT May 31, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Cubriclas hope you took that long on audnzd 200 pips ago as suggested by me when you asked..despite suggestions from some friends of caution and care.
good weekend!
dc CB 17:58 GMT May 31, 2013
United States
The amount owed on loans secured by investments rose to $384 billion at the end of April, according to data compiled by Finra, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. It was the first time the total had surpassed the 2007 peak of $381 billion, a peak that was followed by the Great Recession and credit crisis.
The accompanying charts show the level of outstanding margin debt since 1960, both in dollars and as a percentage of gross domestic product. The latest total of borrowing amounts to about 2.4 percent of G.D.P., a level that in the past was a danger signal.
Shades of Prerecession Borrowing
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 17:19 GMT May 31, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply
Prices in prime fixed income markets mixedr after strong start today. Peripherals are mixed.
Cambridge Joe 17:03 GMT May 31, 2013
EURUSD
Interesting ! While 2981 would trigger a down cycle (if reached in the next 20...30 mins...) the outlook for the fag-end of the session looks e/$ positive to me... Made safe from 2949 having taken half..... we will see... as they say ! :-)
HK RF@ 15:46 GMT May 31, 2013
USD/CAD
Don't worry about the American economy which is not that recovering.
Wait for the next US bad news::))
Toronto KH 15:36 GMT May 31, 2013
USD/CAD
But interest rate differential on long end favors US
HK RF@ 15:26 GMT May 31, 2013
USD/CAD
Reply
A strong US PMI is good for Canada too, so need to worry about for the time;)
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:57 GMT May 31, 2013
forum post
Reply
Sheriff, I sent you an email we have on file but it got bounced. Send me a current email so I can reply to your post.
Cambridge Joe 14:57 GMT May 31, 2013
EURUSD
Reply
e/$ 2960 precipitates a buy about 30 mins out from here. IMO. GL
GVI Forex Blog 14:37 GMT May 31, 2013
Reply
May 31, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, June 3. Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: AU/CH/FR/DE/EZ/GB/US- PMI
GVI Forex Data Outlook for 1 June 2013
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:35 GMT May 31, 2013
Calendar
Reply
May 31, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, June 3.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: AU/CH/FR/DE/EZ/GB/US- PMI
- Far East: CN- NBS PMI (Sat), AU- PMI, Retail Sales.
- Europe: CH- PMI, FR- PMI, DE- PMI, EZ- PMI, GB- PMI.
- North America: US- Markit PMI, ISM PMI, Construction Spending.
Direct links to primary data sources
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:58 GMT May 31, 2013
United States
University of Michigan-Conference Board Sentiment Final U of M reading revised up sharply from Mid-May. New recent high.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:55 GMT May 31, 2013
United States
Another strong number
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:48 GMT May 31, 2013
United States
Chicago PMI much stronger than expected. Sub-components strong.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:35 GMT May 31, 2013
United States
Reply
HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update)
EURUSD= 1.2990
GBPUSD= 1.5210
USDJPY= 100.66
AUDUSD= 0.9590
USDCAD= 1.0315
Direct links to primary data sources
HK RF@ 13:35 GMT May 31, 2013
USD/CAD
Reply
This is now probably one of the few darlings of the Mkt.
Chart wise I like the daily: Nice Stoch. crossing+RSI Div.+Big enough ADX for reversal.
Possibly to keep for 2 or 3 days B4 decision.
HK RF@ 13:20 GMT May 31, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
FM
Correct, just take the contrarian view.
It is all a game of probabilities(except for WafQ:).
Lahore FM 13:18 GMT May 31, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
RF dear "that would be the day i die" as the country song said when i would need assurance from anyone on the market other than myself.
happy trades
london red 13:13 GMT May 31, 2013
-
Reply
markets appear to be working into option expiries today. some big ones on usdjpy dragging it higher. 50/80 are possible closes at top of hour. following this, should get another good move before london close
HK RF@ 12:47 GMT May 31, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
I can assure you, that tonight it is hard to drop below 1.0250.
Lahore FM 12:46 GMT May 31, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
i am looking to add so anything under 1.0285 will be bonus Red Sir!
london red 12:45 GMT May 31, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
usdcad looking toppy this week, think if below 10285/90 need to watch out for more consolidation at lower levels
Lahore FM 12:44 GMT May 31, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Cheers..i had been following the moves.i am not contrary in order to be contrary.
glgt.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:43 GMT May 31, 2013
United States-Canada
U.S. CPI and PCE Deflator. PCE 1.10% y/y just above floor of Fed target.
HK RF@ 12:41 GMT May 31, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Lahore FM
I like people who are contrarians to my opinions.
Hope many will follow you master (about USD/CAD ::))
Lahore FM 12:38 GMT May 31, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Buy USDCAD
Entry: Target: Stop:
buy all dips on usdcad.i bought 1.0315 now.
HK RF@ 12:31 GMT May 31, 2013
CONTRA AL SHABAB NO BRAINER.
Reply
Did ye follow me:::)))
HK RF@ 08:35 GMT May 31, 2013
USD/CAD : Reply
Buy USDCAD
Entry: about at 1.0360 Target: Gamble on data Stop: later
Sydney ACC 12:30 GMT May 31, 2013
Bigger forces at play in market's wild swings Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/big
Been out with the family missed the action, looking at light show in Sydney Harbour missed the comments regarding the SMH article I posted.
What I thought when I read the article is the emphasis the market places on Non-Farm Payroll figures each month. This figure determines trends in interest rate and FX markets for the ensuing weeks. The initial figure, however, is invariably adjusted over the following two months yet the adjustments are ignored.
Take yesterday's Australian economic data - Capital Expenditure and Housing Approvals. Both issued at 11:30am AEST the market was anxious for the former, didn't like what it saw pushed Aussie down to 0.9580, then read the latter liked that. The currency then jumped up to 0.9640 all in the space of a few seconds certainly less than a minute. For a retail trader or a corporate too short a time frame to be able to react. Now where are we? Back at 0.9600.
Melbourne Qindex 12:19 GMT May 31, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR/USD : The market has picked up good support around 1.2967 and it can easily move back to 1.3009. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above 1.3050. The short term targeting point is 1.3133.
Qindex.com
EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts
Beijing Laowen 11:43 GMT May 31, 2013
EURJPY 130.20
Amman wfakhoury 10:20 GMT May 31, 2013
============================
Cool, almost there mate.
Amman wfakhoury 10:20 GMT May 31, 2013
EURJPY 130.20
Reply
130.20 confirmed ..will be reached
Syd 10:14 GMT May 31, 2013
An overdraft? That'll be �200 at Lloyds TSB (but only �15 if you're a Muslim)
Reply
Many Lloyds TSB customers are being hit with charges of up to �200 a month if they go into the red - while Muslims who use the bank are only being charged �15.
The part-nationalised bank has been accused of religious discrimination over the disparity between overdraft charges on its standard current account and its Islamic account.
The Islamic account was set up by the high street bank to attract Muslim customers by allowing them to keep faithful to their religion.
Sharia law does not permit the payment of interest so the 'typical' Islamic account at Lloyds TSB has been set up without an overdraft facility.
Read more:
Cambridge Joe 10:13 GMT May 31, 2013
EURUSD
Same for aususd. ( 30 min up-tick ) Might be a blind before the main event ?
Cambridge Joe 10:09 GMT May 31, 2013
EURUSD
Reply
Up-tick for e/$ about 30 mins out. IMO. GL
Cheers Flip ! GLGTs
Brisbane Flip 09:59 GMT May 31, 2013
Bigger forces at play in market's wild swings Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/big
Sorry stepped out
I wasn't wanting to offend anyone here talking about size, experience etc. I was merely hoping to point out that most "talking heads", "economists" and "strategists" (the professionals) in the financial media are closer to at best salesmen espousing extrapolation of any recent move or have at worst buy and hold or perma bear biases.
The great thing about FX trading is that different styles have a home from noise jobber, flow follower, warehouse manager, day or long term trend trader. The different time, financial and style horizons mean shorts and longs can make money despite the Man vs Man zero sum cliche. As long as the position (risk) is in proportion to the capital and volatility tolerance the size is irrelevant. FX is a much more level playing field than other markets and less insider knowledge dependent.
Best of luck to everyone out there.
kl shawn 09:47 GMT May 31, 2013
buy euro
Reply
bought 1.2982, stop 1.2915, target open
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:19 GMT May 31, 2013
Earlier data improving. Month end active U.S. calendar
Reply
- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS:� CA- GDP, US- Personal Income, University of Michigan
- Today saw mixed Japanese
inflation data data. The core CPI report remains mired in deflation,
while the Tokyo-area CPI just barely turned positive. The Nikkei closed
the session at 13,775, +186pts..
- German Retail Sales data
improved from negative to mixed.
- The Swiss KOF Leading indicator
clearly improved after a positive GDP report on Thursday..
- U.S. Weekly Jobless. Claims
broke no new ground as they came in close to recent levels. The focus
now is on the May jobs data next Friday and the data leading into that
report.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.2961
|
JGB
0.85% -4bp
|
Asia
Close Mixed
|
USDJPY
101.31
|
Bund
1.50% -1bp
|
Europe
Lower
|
EURJPY
131.31
|
U.S.
2.09%� -3bp
|
U.S.
Lower
|
GVI Forex Blog 09:17 GMT May 31, 2013
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CA- GDP, University of Michigan
Today saw mixed Japanese inflation data data. The core CPI report remains mired in deflation, while the Tokyo-area CPI just barely turned positive. The Nikkei closed the session at 13,775, +186pts..
Earlier data improving. Month end active U.S. calendar
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:10 GMT May 31, 2013
Eurozone
EZ flash HICP (CPI). In line with estimates. Now well below ECB target of "just below 2.0%". Provides policy flexibility to ECB.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:47 GMT May 31, 2013
Eurozone
Reply
HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update)
EURUSD= 1.3018
GBPUSD= 1.5205
USDJPY= 100.39
AUDUSD= 0.9606
USDCAD= 1.0335
Direct links to primary data sources
HK RF@ 08:35 GMT May 31, 2013
USD/CAD
Reply
Buy USDCAD
Entry: about at 1.0360 Target: Gamble on data Stop: later
.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:27 GMT May 31, 2013
Germany
mixed data,
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:20 GMT May 31, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply
Prices in prime fixed income prices have turned higher early in Europe. Prices up in periphery as well.
Amsterdam Purk 07:53 GMT May 31, 2013
Bigger forces at play in market's wild swings Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/big
What is making me very happy, is the english that you Englishmen use here, i like the tone.
For those people i am on this forum, the correct people who will not attack personally.
No Americans you say Percy, from Belgium than?
As for Cambridge Joe: you and i will be in the pub next year....
Sometimes i feel that languages for some are the problem, few do not seem to read well or understand well the tone. Most of the so called traders here seem to consider every word as an attack.
Cambridge Joe 07:48 GMT May 31, 2013
Bigger forces at play in market's wild swings Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/big
Percy & Flip
I am very small..... for sure ( so the girls tell me anyhow ) and fairly ADHD on a stick and I'm primarily interested in the immediate session and the session to follow..... not long term at all.
I always post trade / anticipated market movements that I believe have merit. Sometimes it works out, other times.... not so much.
I do hope that I have not been in anyway responsible for hounding anyone from the forum, except perhaps our friend from Dhaka who likes to spam!
Any "Masters of the Universe" out there..... come back, we need you !
UK Percy 07:06 GMT May 31, 2013
Bigger forces at play in market's wild swings Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/big
ACC. There are only 6 fund managers worldwide that are "Masters of the universe" and they deserve the title to match their ego. Not one of them is American.
There were 2 of these "Masters off the Universe" some years back that were posters on the Forex forum because they thought it was the best way to "give something back" , but sadly they were hounded off the Forum by traders who operate 2k accounts and are "legends in their own lunchbox"....g/Weekend to all.
Brisbane Flip 07:05 GMT May 31, 2013
Bigger forces at play in market's wild swings Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/big
ACC I was only talking to my old boss the other day about how dumb the average guy in the market is these days compared to years ago. Once upon a time the market was much smalled and seemed to be streetwise or tech-clever or mathematics genius to secure a job. Its now disproportinately sized compared to real economy and its full of snake oil salesmen, pavlovian dogs and off the rack "TA for dummies" who all glorified day traders who have ADHD. The financial market has become so large and is now accesible to those with both little capital and little experience it mirrors the rest of society....its a bell curve.
Watching CNBC is cringeworthy......come to GVI where the air is clear and no BS policy where when nothing happens the opinion is nothing happened.
Cambridge Joe 06:53 GMT May 31, 2013
Bigger forces at play in market's wild swings Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/big
ACC
'aren't all that smart' ?
I should coco !
An extract from a recent email I sent to a comrade FX junkie !
"It is simple, made to look brain churningly difficult. Admitted, when big stuff come out, because 2/3 of the morons in charge of funds have not the first idea what to do, but feel that they must do something, then, they do something. This is a dangerous time, because what they do will bear little or no semblance to what should be done, hence the convulsion that we see."
###
Still....... it keeps them busy ... and us guessing ! :-)
Sydney ACC 05:45 GMT May 31, 2013
Bigger forces at play in market's wild swings Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/big
Reply
Despite the vast amounts they are paid and their own rating of themselves, Wall Street�s index-hugging �Masters of the Universe� funds managers mostly aren�t all that smart � as the track record of most of them indicates. While their world view is broader than most Americans�, that�s not saying much, and they often repeat the last headline they�ve read and don�t look far beyond them.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/bigger-forces-at-play-in-markets-wild-swings-20130531-2ngbi.html#ixzz2UqW5ZWpW
manila tom 03:00 GMT May 31, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797
target reached ;)
manila tom 09:33 GMT May 29, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797 : Reply
half profit taken, stop to BE for the rest for the said target
manila tom 05:13 GMT May 29, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797 : Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.2820-40 Target: 1.3020 Stop: under 1.2760
nice reload level Dr. Qindex, still BOD for euro, nothing changes
Melbourne Qindex 02:40 GMT May 31, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR/USD : The market rhythm is represented by 53 pips. After consolidation within the daily cycle pivot centres at 1.3046 - 1.3088 - 1.3116 the market has potential to tackle the barrier at 1.3188 // 1.3206.
Qindex.com
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Trading Reference
1.2851* - 1.2878 - 1.2904* ... 1.2930 - 1.2957* - 1.2983 - 1.2996 // 1.3009* - 1.3023 - 1.3036 - 1.3049 - 1.3062* - 1.3075 - [1.3088] - 1.3102 - 1.3155 - 1.3128 - 1.3141 - 1.3154 - 1.3168* // 1.3181 - 1.3194 - 1.3220* - 1.3247 ... 1.3273* - 1.3299 - 1.3326*
EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts
Sydney ACC 01:02 GMT May 31, 2013
Antipodeans are building up a storm..
Read Tim Colebatch's article in todays SMH.
Expected capital investment is always overly optimistic. He quoted past figures and the actual capital investment was lower than the expected figure.
Looking forward, while some of this capital expenditure has to be made owing to time it takes a project to come to fruition, just how much can be pulled in the meantime.
All to tenuous to be believed in my opinion.
Growing number of calls from economists for the RBA to cut next week. Unlikely though.
Syd 00:32 GMT May 31, 2013
Antipodeans are building up a storm..
Reply
RBNZ�s Wheller: NZD is significantly overvalued / prepared to scale up intervention
New Zealand Building approvals rise 18.5% M/M
IMF�s Shinohara: Europe recovery remains elusive
Kuroda: Sufficient easing is needed to end deflation
Suga: Japan�s economy is steadily recovering / calm response needed on equities
Australian capex falls 4.7% in Q1, future investments are better than expected
Australian Building approvals rise 9.14%, more than double forecasts
No saviour in sight as world credit cycle rolls over (Telegraph-AEP)
Nikkei: Opens lower (1.8%), falls further pre lunch (3.1%) and extends loses afterwards (3.6%)
USD/JPY dropped from 101.10 to 100.60, the move was triggered by a fall in Japanese equities. The market was caught short, having failed to take the large stops out below 100.50, combined with large fixing demand the pair raced higher, eventually stalling around 101.50. The pair then drifted back to 101.00 on Japanese exporter supply.
AUD/USD fell initially from 9620 to 9585 on the headline capex number, on closer examination of the data, showing future investment was higher than estimated and stellar building approvals, we began to rally. Momentum waned above 9670 but dips towards 9640 were eagerly sought. As European markets opened, the �Aussie� was trading at 9680. Stops were being touted above 9710.
FxBriefs.com
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