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Forex Forum Archive for 06/1/2013

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GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 23:14 GMT June 1, 2013

China PMIs May 2013
NBS: 50.8 vs. 49.8 exp vs. 50.6 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Dillon AL 22:35 GMT June 1, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

Weekly setup videos for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD

See what is in store for the week ahead

To access the videos Click here

Want More then Click here

Mtl JP 21:09 GMT June 1, 2013
United States

adding suspects to the list of being able to be Cyprussed:

Non-bank firms about to get tagged by regulators
June 1, 2013 WASHINGTON, June 1 (UPI) -- ...USA Today reported Saturday three non-bank companies -- American International Group, Prudential Financial and GE Capital -- have revealed in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission they are being considered for what is essentially a too-big-to-fail designation. .. .. their failure would be damaging to the economy as a whole. ... Those companies would be placed under central bank jurisdiction and regulated like a bank, which likely means they will have to raise capital to act as a buffer against failure in hard times .../ ..
communist dirigists in.. free market capitalism out

dc CB 20:57 GMT June 1, 2013
United States

Barrons Cover


dc CB 20:17 GMT June 1, 2013
United States

The most recent contribution to the broadening canvas of dysfunction and incompetence surrounding the SEC is a whistleblower complaint filed by 56-year-old Kathleen Furey, a senior lawyer who worked in the New York Regional Office (NYRO), the agency outpost with direct jurisdiction over Wall Street.

According to Furey, her group at the SEC's New York office, from a period stretching for over half a decade through December, 2008, did not as a matter of policy pursue cases against investment managers like Bernie Madoff. Furey says she was told flatly by her boss, Assistant Regional Director George Stepaniuk, that "We do not do IM cases."

Why Didn't the SEC Catch Madoff? It Might Have Been Policy Not To

Cambridge Joe 17:37 GMT June 1, 2013
EURAUD sells Appr 1 hour in.

This one is a contender for a long journey down over days !

Check it out ! IMO GL.

YOW.. !

Cambridge Joe 17:32 GMT June 1, 2013

USDCHF... virtually a mirror image... so it seems to me... GL.

Cambridge Joe 17:24 GMT June 1, 2013
EURUSD softer about 20 mins in to the new week, with a further softness around 1:15 in .

V roughly... 09:00 GMT looks to buy and into NY. A brief approach / revisit to Friday's low would double underline the 09:00 Buy.


kl fs 15:28 GMT June 1, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

thanks Dr Qindex, that's one euro super bullish view and inline with mine :)
suggesting to buy anything below 1.30 in June then?

Mtl JP 14:41 GMT June 1, 2013
United States

Fed may need to let inflation rise to boost jobs: Kocherlakota

Sat Jun 1, 2013 ISTANBUL (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve may need to let inflation run a little higher than its 2-percent target in order to bring down unemployment faster, a top Fed official said on Saturday.
Narayana is a non-voting dove.
10-yr will need to top 2012's 2.4% high yield.
Preferably unleash animal spirits and run towards "normal" 5% rate.

Haifa ac 14:30 GMT June 1, 2013
China PMI rose to 50.8 from 50.6 in April

"China PMI rose to 50.8 from 50.6 in April.

Could it affect the AUD positively on Monday start???"

Only if you are short.

HK RF@ 14:08 GMT June 1, 2013
China PMI rose to 50.8 from 50.6 in April

China PMI rose to 50.8 from 50.6 in April.

Could it affect the AUD positively on Monday start???

Mtl JP 12:49 GMT June 1, 2013
United States

dc CB here is a potential tornado (comedy?) in the making:
NYC Pension Chief Seeks $500,000 Managers to Cut Out Wall Street - bbrg

New York City�s $140 billion retirement system pays Wall Street money managers about $360 million a year.

Mtl JP 12:41 GMT June 1, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

China PMI rose to 50.8 from 50.6 in April - bbrg
That was higher than all estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of 30 analysts and compares with the median projection of 50, which marks the dividing line between expansion and contraction.

Melbourne Qindex 12:37 GMT June 1, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Critical Level 1.3309

The market is positive when it is trading above the monthly cycle pivot center at 1.2767. The monthly cycle congested area indicates that EUR/USD is likely to trade between 1.2767 and 1.3501 for the time being. The pattern of the monthly cycle charts indicate that it is easier for the market to move one step ahead towards 1.3409 instead of one step backward towards 1.2552. The monthly cycle directional indicator suggests that the market can tackle the barriers at 1.3627 // 1.3637 if it can overcome the weekly cycle pivot centres at 1.3125 - 1.3163 - 1.3217. A critical range is positioning at 1.3309* // 1.3415.

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:08 GMT June 1, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

-- GVI Forex Trading Theme of the Week--

We set out a new trading theme several weeks ago that has been working well. With the Fed now in a "transition phase" out of QE, the best barometer of market sentiment we know of is how bond yields perform. Twice each trading day we post a table of key bond yields on the Forex Forum. We are looking at the absolute level of interest rates (mainly the 10-yr) in key economies. changes on the day and year, and their relative levels as well. As for the Fed's transition, expect that to extend over an extended period of time. By an extended period of time, we mean years not months. Fed Chair Bernanke has made it clear that the central bank would like to transition with as little disruption to the markets as possible. Financial markets tend to have short attention spans so it might take them a while to adjust to the time frame the Fed is working in.

The pace of the Fed adjustment will be governed by the performance of U.S. employment data, so the monthly employment data data due on Friday and related statistics in the week ahead will be very important to traders. Before the employment data are released, the markets will see monthly PMI data from all over the globe. These data are closely-followed because the data are very fresh and because they are roughly comparable between different countries. To top it all off, this week sees Central bank policy decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the ECB and the Bank of England. All three are seen holding key rates steady, but are thought to be looking for other means of promoting economic growth.

Bottom-line this is is a USD market, but its price performance against the majors recently has been lackluster.

For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to use our Economic Calendar and the href="">Forex Forum as key items are released.

-- John M. Bland,

Mtl JP 11:56 GMT June 1, 2013
United States

It�s hard to grow the economy if consumers aren�t able to save and spend. is an oxymoron

First one saves. Then one can spend their savings. To spend without having savings means to go into debt.

HK RF@ 01:26 GMT June 1, 2013

Indeed FM view about the pair came accurate.

USD/CAD finished the week on a tone of a daily bullish key reversal.

Only have to notice, that it is a bullish sign at an almost near a top of an ascending price action, so it's effectiveness should be taken with reservation.

dc CB 00:40 GMT June 1, 2013
United States

further thoughts from Mr Fry

There were some really interesting and unusual U.S. economic data releases to end the month. The negative was Personal Income (0% vs .1% exp & prior .3%) and Spending (-.2% vs exp .0% & prior .1%) report. It�s hard to grow the economy if consumers aren�t able to save and spend. Next the unremarkable U of Mich. Consumer Sentiment report (84.5 vs 83.7 exp & prior 82.7) being so since it�s so weighted by stock prices. Last was the shocker from the Chicago PMI (58.6 vs 50 exp & prior 49) which steamrolled estimates and prior data. The latter is basically a survey of chosen participants who provide comments to various questions. It was odd given some comments that were quite negative. Zero Hedge highlights these negative comments as follow:

Lately the months start good and then end bad.

Three months of declining sales in one of our core product lines indicates a slow down, though there are a couple of others hanging in there.

Some primary commodity resins we buy are starting to moderate and even decline a bit in price.

Business activity should be picking up and be stronger by this time of the year, but a bit more delayed than usual, so some concern there.

With the second corrugated linerboard increase in 6 months, the producers are showing us what an oligopoly is all about.

Corrugated costs are going up based on supposed paper demand increases. The timing of this is a bit off based on only modest increases in market demand. I expect this increase to fail with time.

Most other items are not increasing at this time.

New orders have been light since March, but the sales people are still optimistic that a couple of big orders are soon to be released.

A deeper reading of the Chicago report per Bloomberg noted: �This report, which covers all areas of the Chicago economy not just manufacturing, may be suffering from a low sample size this month, which may or may not explain today's great surge�.

(many charts)

Sell in May and go away will be on every investor�s mind after Friday�s week performance. It�s always been when you sell that�s been the measure for this maxim to be effective. If so the high for SPY would have been May 21st at $167.17. Then there�s the reappearance of the Hindenburg Omen but that�s for another day�s discussion.

Dave's Daily

Sydney ACC 00:20 GMT June 1, 2013
Australian dollar
Saturday morning in Sydney - time to read the papers before taking my sons to football this afternoon.

All doom and gloom in the UK Telegraph and SMH.

The antipodean currencies finished at the lows after an extremely volatile week. And they weren't on their own as this article explains:

General view is AUD top now looks to come in at 0.9600 to 0.9650 with a target of 0.9388. I note that the Bank Analysts' predictions for year end have been reviewed from 1.05 to parity down to 0.96 to 0.98 during the week. I've found reading tea leaves to be as reliable as their longer-term predictions. They tend to be behind the curve. If the contagion carries over from the emerging markets then we may be headed for much, much lower.

AEP in the Telegraph this week commented on a 3% current account deficit in Brazil as being worrisome. In Australia we have a deficit of 4% at a time when we have recorded extraordinarily high prices for our resource exports. That figure has only one way to go as demand and prices wane.


Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
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A 08:55 DE- Employment
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A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
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AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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