GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 22:03 GMT July 1, 2013
Calendar
Reply
July 1, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, July 2.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: AU- RBA.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 20:57 GMT July 1, 2013
Japan Tankan strong. PMIs better, except China U.S. PMI's mixed
Reply
- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: AU-RBA Decision
- A slew of PMI data were
released to start the new month. In general, the data have shown
improvement, however China disappointed. See Forex Forum for data and
charts.
- U.S. Markit and ISM data
were mixed. The Manufacturing employment sub-component fell below 50
(48.7). The ISM Services PMI employment index tends to signal payrolls
better than the mfg index. The Services PMI is due on Wednesday.
- The Japanese Quarterly Tankan
Survey showed a strong improvement in response to Abenomics,
- A policy decision by the
Reserve Bank of Australia is due Tuesday. No rate changes are expected.
- Thursday sees rate decisions by
the Bank of England and European Central Bank.
- This week also will see Key
U.S. employment data for the month of June.
- This isone of the busiest data
weeks of the year. It also features the U.S. Independence Day
holiday on Thursday, which could disrupt the normal market flow.
Wednesday sees a slew of PMI Srervice index releases.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3200
|
JGB
0.87% +2bp
|
Asia
Close Higher
|
USDJPY
97.25
|
Bund
1.74% +4bp
|
Europe:
Higher
|
EURJPY
128.36
|
U.S.
2.49% =1bp
|
U.S.
Higher |
GVI Forex Blog 20:57 GMT July 1, 2013
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- RBA Decision
A slew of PMI data were released to start the new month. In general, the data have shown improvement, however China disappointed. See Forex Forum for data and charts.
U.S. Markit and ISM data were mixed. The Manufacturing employment sub-component fell below 50 (48.7). The ISM Services PMI employment index tends to signal payrolls better than the mfg index. The Services PMI is due on Wednesday.
Japan Tankan strong. PMIs better, except China U.S. PMI's mixed
Cambridge Joe 20:27 GMT July 1, 2013
Carney at BoE
Mtl JP 19:46
Cable : Agree the tone looks softer into / thru Asia.
Levels, I don't have.
Mtl JP 19:46 GMT July 1, 2013
Carney at BoE
pound ... looks like it wants 1.50 before 1.54
who sees the bias sdifferently ?
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:45 GMT July 1, 2013
Chart Points
Reply
UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data
for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.
Berlin PR 18:04 GMT July 1, 2013
Oceania to Eurasia
some say; the little shibor shock was orchestrated by China as warning shot for the FED.
http://www.shibor.org/shibor/web/ShiborJPG_e.jsp
Mtl JP 17:42 GMT July 1, 2013
Oceania to Eurasia
dc CB 16:24 else what .. will Mr. Lew do to the Chinese ?
dc CB 16:24 GMT July 1, 2013
Oceania to Eurasia
Reply
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew called on China to adopt more market-oriented policies and drew a distinction between industrial espionage and the cyber warfare and spying
The Chinese “fundamentally have to move from a place where they have a very rigid, structured support for old industries, and go to more market-determined interest rates, market-determined investment policies
Lew Says China Needs Market Policies and Stop Spying
dc CB 16:20 GMT July 1, 2013
Carney at BoE
Back in April 2012 we first suggested - to loud jeers by the "pundits" who were convinced there is no chance in censored of it happening - that Goldman's take over of the world's central bank triumvirate: the NY Fed (Bill Dudley), the ECB (Mario Draghi) and the Bank of England, would soon be completed with Mark Carney taking over the world's oldest central bank located on Threadneedle street. Today, this process has concluded and we have photographic evidence.
The Goldman Takeover Is Complete
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 15:54 GMT July 1, 2013
Fixed Income
Late in Europe, prices in prime fixed income markets have turned mixed over the day. Peripheral prices are mostly lower.
london red 15:53 GMT July 1, 2013
-
Reply
audjpy 200 day at 92.33. any move higher is likely to be driven by a move higher in usdjpy and audusd. 99.94 fibo proving hard to break for former, while latter got stopped at the 10 day ma during fridays initial rally. position squaring ahead of nfp friday risks squeezing aussie higher, if combined with a moe thru 200 day ma on audjpy, then usdjpy likely to take the fibo. market would then focus on upper daily bolli.
Mtl JP 15:42 GMT July 1, 2013
Carney at BoE
Carney is just one giant slap in Tucker's face. How he managed swallow his pride and sit there for the pic the way he did is amazing.
GVI Forex Blog 14:32 GMT July 1, 2013
Reply
July 1, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, July 2. Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: AU- RBA.
GVI Forex Data Outlook for 2 July 2013
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:30 GMT July 1, 2013
Calendar
Reply
July 1, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, July 2.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: AU- RBA.
Cambridge Joe 14:24 GMT July 1, 2013
AUDJPY
Reply
AUDJPY down here IMO. GL
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:07 GMT July 1, 2013
United States
U.S./Eurozone PMIs... ISM PMI stronger than expected...
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:15 GMT July 1, 2013
United States
I don't like the look of the two U.S. mfg PMI's. ISM PMI arrives in an hour. ISM PMI is more closely followed.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:02 GMT July 1, 2013
United States
U.S. final Markit Mfg PMI. Revised lower.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:58 GMT July 1, 2013
United States
weaker than expected
Cambridge Joe 12:22 GMT July 1, 2013
EURJPY
Reply
EURJPY looks like it's stalling here. South thru NY IMO. G:L
Mtl JP 11:50 GMT July 1, 2013
Japanese Tankan strong. PMIs better, except China
it is then likely that the upcoming NFP data release will confirm the breakup of the cultivated bobsey twins look-alike act-alike act; probably unceremoniously confirm Ben's act nearing its end
London Misha 11:15 GMT July 1, 2013
Observations
Reply
EURUSD - Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart including a breach & reversion back up from under the Long MA!
USDJPY - 1st close over nearby 50% Fib at 98.73 & test of key 2007-11 50% Fib at 99.84 on Daily Chart.
GBPUSD - 3rd Black Crow & close below 50% Fib at 1.5379 as well as 2nd close below 50% Fib at 1.5289 on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - Spinning Top on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - 1st close (just!) on Daily Chart below key 38.2% Fib (0.9141) of 2008-11 move.
USDINR - Opening Black Marubozo on Daily Chart. Market tests recent Uptrend & tries to fill 2nd Gap!
USDZAR - 1st close below nearby 50% Fib at 9.9942 & 1st close below Middle Tine of Long Term SP from 2011 on Daily Chart.
USDBRL - Long White Marubozo after Closing White Marubozo, possible Bullish Hammer, on Daily Chart.
Tallinn viies 11:00 GMT July 1, 2013
eurusd
Reply
closed long euro at 1,3050.
monthly range for july in my view could be 1,2775-1,3375
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:56 GMT July 1, 2013
Japan
Reply
BOJ Tankan Survey. Data responding positively to Abenomics.
Cambridge Joe 09:44 GMT July 1, 2013
If we shadows have offended...
3 out of 5... Could do better.
e/$ Up Yes.
e/chf Up Yes.
Audusd Up Yes.
Cable Up... but not a clean kill.
usd jpy.... Sell... not a clean kill, in fact wrong, but south now. IMO.
CGI not too bad ! :-)
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:29 GMT July 1, 2013
Japanese Tankan strong. PMIs better, except China
Reply
- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: US- Markit PMI,
ISM PMI
- A slew of PMI data has been
released to start the new month. In general, the data have shown
improvement, however China disappointed. See Forex Forum for data and
charts.
- The Japanese Quarterly Tankan
Survey showed a strong improvement in response to Abenomics, Monday
sees a busy data Calendar from the U.S.
- Today is the Canada Day holiday
for Canadian markets.
- The Fed spent the better part
of the last week trying to clarify the crystal clear road-map laid out
by Chairman Bernanke for extricating the Fed from its asset purchase
program.. We feel the Fed felt the need to "clarify" the message
because it was unhappy with the market reaction to its message.
- This week ahead will be one of
the busiest data weeks of the year. It features the U.S. Independence
Day holiday on Thursday, which could disrupt the normal flow of the
market. This period also sees a slew of global PMI index releases.
- Central bank decisions by the
Reserve Bank of Australia Tuesday, and on Thursday rate decisions by
the Bank of England and European Central Bank. This week also will see
Key U.S. employment data for the month of June.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3200
|
JGB
0.86% +1bp
|
Asia
Close Higher
|
USDJPY
97.25
|
Bund
1.74% +4bp
|
Europe:
Mixed
|
EURJPY
128.36
|
U.S.
2.52% +2bp
|
U.S.
Higher |
GVI Forex Blog 09:28 GMT July 1, 2013
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Markit PMI, ISM PMI
A slew of PMI data has been released to start the new month. In general, the data have shown improvement, however China disappointed. See Forex Forum for data and charts.
The Japanese Quarterly Tankan Survey showed a strong improvement in response to Abenomics, Monday sees a busy data Calendar from the U.S.
Japanese Tankan strong. PMIs better, except China
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:05 GMT July 1, 2013
Eurozone
EZ flash HICP (CPI). In line with estimates. Below ECB target of "just below 2.0%". Provides policy flexibility to ECB.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:41 GMT July 1, 2013
Australia
AU PMI major rebound,...
london red 08:38 GMT July 1, 2013
United Kingdom
earlier lower print by ###### removed prior to official release. cable trendline res at 15270 and then 50% fibo of 148-157 at 15293, bang on 100 day, any move above best faded.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:33 GMT July 1, 2013
United Kingdom
U.K. Manufacturing PMI better than expected.
london red 08:25 GMT July 1, 2013
Eurozone
eurgbp now risks doing stops above 8600. for me a close above required (and ideally above april high) to suggest breakout from 84/86 range. on any such breakout, surely 86 base will be tested so i will not be chasing as quite possible stops get done and no follow through, nfp/ecb/holidays the risk of market sitting on hands. having said that feel sentiment building in expectation for new boe gov carney to act. might be misplaced since he has just the one vote amongst many and unlikely he will convince others during first meet. its possibly something to consider for august if data is weak during the rest of the month.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:21 GMT July 1, 2013
China
Reply
-- EARLIER --
China PMIs June 2013
HSBC: 48.2 vs. 48.3 exp. vs. 48.3 prev.
NBS: 50.1 vs. 50.1 exp vs. 50.8 prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:15 GMT July 1, 2013
Eurozone
red: good point Re Germany. PMI have flattened recently after leadin (higher) after leading higher before.
london red 08:14 GMT July 1, 2013
Eurozone
btw uk pmi out early down to 48.4, big miss. if below last weeks low than 1.50 in focus, but market sooner or later gets in wait mode for nfp on firday, so better to fade a deeper move lower.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:12 GMT July 1, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply
Prices in prime fixed income market mostly lower early in Europe. Prices in periphery are mostly down.
london red 08:12 GMT July 1, 2013
Eurozone
but notice german data, rather than leading, has been lagging in recent weeks. even france has started to beat, but germany isnt showing strength as yet. think it will be difficult to get a beat above 50 next month (germany)
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:07 GMT July 1, 2013
Eurozone
EZ, GE and FR final Mfg PMI. France Improving....
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:04 GMT July 1, 2013
Eurozone
EZ final Mfg PMI. Improving...
london red 07:28 GMT July 1, 2013
-
Reply
yen...61.8% fibo of 103/93 at 94.94, also april highs. looking to get short just ahead. sub 99 possible.
euro. for today much depends on local pmi data (so far today polish pmi beats swiss up soon, rest also). 100 and 200 day ma scattered just below 13084, the 50% fibo of 134/127. should be enough to contain rally if data within expectations. a move above fridays high suggest 13150 in reach. on downside, 50% fibo at 1.3004 and last weeks low are supports, decisive break below required to open up 12935/40.
Amman wfakhoury 06:26 GMT July 1, 2013
EURUSD 13025
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 15:19 GMT June 28, 2013
EURUSD 12990 direction level: Reply
Amman wfakhoury 15:07 GMT June 28, 2013
EURUSD 12990 direction level: Reply
Recommended buy only above 12990 , add buy if decline
------------------
tp @ 13025
-----------------
13025 reached
Syd 05:00 GMT July 1, 2013
Source TradeTheNews.com
Reply
FR) Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard comments on the rising popularity of the eurosceptic Front National party- The Front National party received 46% of the vote in the Villeneuve-sur-Lot by-elections held 1 week ago. - Also, on the national level the party's support level is similar to the leading parties. - The Front National party leader Marine Le Pen has expressed support for a break-up of the euro zone. - Notes the Front National party has sought to make changes in order to further broaden its appeal. - Source TradeTheNews.com
Amman wfakhoury 03:50 GMT July 1, 2013
Gold 1241.13
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 08:12 GMT June 30, 2013
GOLD 1233.33 knows the direction: Reply
1233.33 s the wfakhoury direction level . above it will go up below it will go down.
keeps above 1233.33 means 1241.13 is coming.
-----------------------------
1241.13 reached and acting as consolidation level .
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:42 GMT July 1, 2013
Jul 1,2013 : Dollar rises broadly on renewed anticipation of QE tapering
Reply
Market Review - 29/06/2013 01:05GMT
Dollar rises broadly on renewed anticipation of QE tapering
The greenback strengthened broadly on Friday as Federal Reserve Governor Jeremy Stein and Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker said September will be a possible time to consider reducing the quantitative easing.
The single currency rebounded in Asia due to active cross buying of euro versus yen and reached 1.3076 in European morning but then retreated to 1.3041 after the release of German retail sales (0.8% m/m and 0.4% y/y, versus the forecasts of 0.2% and 0.6%). Later, although the rally in eur/jpy cros pushed the pair to 1.3103 in New York morning, dollar's broad-based strength after the hawish comments from Fed's Stein and Lacker pressured euro to session low of 1.2991 in New York morning before staging a recovery.
Fed's Stein said September could be an opportune time for Fed to consider reducing its stimulus measures. Fed's Lacker said 'September is one of the possible meeting at which Fed could taper bond purchases, but will depend on the data; market reaction since Bernanke press conference a sign that markets had over-estimated amount of bonds Fed would buy.'
Versus the yen, dollar traded with a firm undertone throughout the day. Price started to climb at Tokyo open and rose to 99.02 at Asian midday on improved risk appetites and the rally of Nikkei-225 index due to the better-than-expected Japan's economic data, including manufacturing PMI, industrial production and retail sales. Cross selling of yen versus euro together with dollar's broad-based strength pushed the pair to a 3-week high at 99.45 at U.S. midday before stabilising.
Japan's manufacturing PMI came in at 52.3 versus the previous of 51.5. Industrial production in May were released at 2.0% m/m and -1.0% y/y, versus the forecasts of 0.2% and -2.4%. Retail sales were 1.5% m/m and 0.8% y/y, much better than the expectations of 0.7% and 0.0% respectively.
Although the British pound rose briefly to 1.5279 in tandem with eur/usd at Asian midday, cross selling of sterling versus euro pressured the pound to 1.5226 in European morning. Dollar's broad-based strength knocked the pair below Thursday's low at 1.5201 to a fresh 3-week trough at 1.5165 in New York morning before stabilising.
On the data front, U.S. Chicago PMI in June came in at 51.6, worse than the expectation of 56.0. U.S. University of Michigan confidence in June came in at 84.1, better than the forecast of 83.0. German CPI in June came in at 0.1% m/m and 1.8% y/y, higher than the forecast of 0.0% and 1.7% respectively.
Data to be released next week :
Japan Tanken big manufacturing, non-manufacturing, China PMI manufacturing, HSBC manufacturing PMI, U.K. hometrack housing survey, manufacturing PMI, mortgage approvals, Swiss PMI, France manufacturing PMI, German manufacturing PMI, Italy unemployment rate, manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, CPI, unemployment rate, U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing on Monday. Hong Kong and Canada will be closed for holiday.
Australia rate decision, U.K. PMI construction, EU PPI, U.S. retail sales, durable goods, factory orders on Tuesday.
Australia new home sales, trade balance, retail sales, China non-manufacturing PMI, HSBC service PMI, Italy service PMI, France service PMI, Germany service PMI, U.K. service PMI, EU service PMI, retail sales, U.S. ADP employment, trade balance, jobless claims, non-manufacturing ISM, Canada trade balance, exports, imports on Wednesday.
Australia building approvals, Lloyds employment confidence, U.K. rate decision, asset purchase target, EU rate decision, U.S. Market holiday on Thursday.
Japan leading indicator, France trade balance, Swiss CPI, Germany factory orders, Canada unemployment rate, net change in unemployment, Ivey PMI, U.S. non-farm payroll, private payroll, unemployment rate, average hourly earning on Friday.
dc CB 00:32 GMT July 1, 2013
United States
JPM also distributes all Food Stamps distributed by the US Gov.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
who will buy all the houses, really who will buy anything in the next 10 years???
Killing the gosling before it even becomes a goose.
______________________________________________
Outsized student debt has become a pressing issue, with many young graduates deep in debt and without jobs. It is second only to mortgages as the largest debt that consumers carry. In 2011, students on average owed nearly $27,000 in loans.
Student loan rates doubling on Monday
many more chart points
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