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Forex Forum Archive for 09/04/2013

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phila caba 22:12 GMT September 4, 2013
Distraction and B.ullshit

ib, what's your take on usd/jpy now? it seems like your 'whole world' doubled on long.
tia

JERUSALEM KB 22:05 GMT September 4, 2013
Pipshunter



Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

if gold moves as planed or if it goes up before it trigger my entry , i will wait for a close above trend line to go long

JERUSALEM KB 21:51 GMT September 4, 2013
Pipshunter



Buy Gold
Entry: 1385 Target: 1470-1520 Stop: 1372

gold is moving inside rising channel on h4 chart and it is now reacting strongly to the lower band of andrew`s pitchfork.
a h4 close below andrew`s lower band may push price to touch the green trend line of current rising moving .
my analysis that gold will move between the lower and the middle band of andrew`s pitchfork and may break the middle band and go up strongly as long as we trading above 1374.
my long position was closed at breakeven after a 140pips gain. placing a buy limit at 1385

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 21:42 GMT September 4, 2013
Calendar
Reply   


September 4. 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, September 5. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- GDP, BOJ, DE- Factory Orders, GB- BOE, EZ- ECB. ADP Private Jobs, Weekly Jobless, Productivity, Service PMI

  • Far East: JP- GDP, BOJ Decision, AU- Trade.
  • Europe: DE- Factory Orders, GB- BOE, EZ- ECB.
  • North America: US- Challenger Layoffs, ADP Private Jobs, Weekly Jobless, Productivity, Service PMI, Factory Orders, Natural Gas, Weekly Crude.


  • Direct links to primary data sources


GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 20:54 GMT September 4, 2013
EZ/UK Service PMIs mixed. U.S. Service PMI due. Syria uncertain
Reply   

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- GDP, BOJ, DE- Factory Orders, GB- BOE, EZ- ECB, US- ADP Private Jobs, Weekly Jobless, Productivity, Service PMI

  • Revisions to European Service PMI reports were split, but still  signal an improving economic performance. The U.K. Services PMI was stronger than expected again and reinforced other data pointing to growth. See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts.

  • The Syrian situation just does not go away as the U.S. administration works to gain political support for some sort of action against the Assad regime.The government is split on what actions should be taken for assorted of reasons,  Republican and Democrat leadership  endorse action.

  • The Bank of Canada kept rates steady as expected. U.K. and the ECB Central Bank decisions Thursday.. Friday sees  U.S. employment data. Thursday  and Friday are Jewish holidays which could limit dealer participation. On Saturday Australia holds national elections.

  • For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar and see the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
EURUSD 1.3311
JGB 0.78% +3bp
Asia Close Mixed
USDJPY 97.95
Bund 1.94% -1bp
Europe Higher
EURJPY 130.11
U.S. 2.90% +5bp
North America: Higher

GVI Forex Blog 20:53 GMT September 4, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- GDP, BOJ, DE- Factory Orders, GB- BOE, EZ- ECB, US- ADP Private Jobs, Weekly Jobless, Productivity, Service PMI Revisions to European Service PMI reports were split, but still signal an improving economic performances. The U.K. Services PMI was stronger than expected again and reinforced other data pointing to growth. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts.

EZ/UK Service PMIs mixed. U.S. Service PMI due. Syria uncertain

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 20:36 GMT September 4, 2013
United States

-- ALERT --
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: -4.200 vs. -0.500 exp vs. +2.960 prev.
Gasoline: -0.387 vs. -0.500 exp vs. -0.587 prev.
Distillates: -0.110 vs. +0.500 exp vs. -0.316 prev.
Cap/Util: vs. n/a exp vs. 91.20% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

dc CB 20:21 GMT September 4, 2013
Let's give Obama a chance



Mtl JP 19:25 GMT
crude steady at $107.7
DJIA up 120 points

Plus this one.
These are the only things that matter.

Paris ib 20:08 GMT September 4, 2013
Distraction and B.ullshit

Actually 17-18 FOMC. 17 TIC. War Debate next week. Final decision and action regarding Syria. Let's make the crescendo somewhere around the 18th shall we. What a bunch of clowns.

No action, we have stock market rally. Everyone's happy. Meanwhile: bluster till you're blue in the face.

Paris ib 20:00 GMT September 4, 2013
Distraction and B.ullshit
Reply   
We have a timetable all right: 16th and 17th the FOMC meeting takes place. At that meeting some sort of announcement of how much LESS the FED will purchase from the mountain of U.S. Treasuries that need financing and refinancing is expected. 10 billion? 20 billion? On the 17th U.S. TIC data for July will be released. The last report was dismal with more than 80 billion leaving the country in one month. There isn't much likelihood we will see an improvement in July. Foreigners are not buying Treasuries, they're selling.

And - lo and behold - we will also have a debate on whether the U.S. should attack Syria or not next week. I wonder how long they can drag that on for? When will they attack? Will they do a missile test? I guess they're hoping all the houpla and media speculation will be enough to drown out the FOMC announcement. It's all smokes and mirrors. Truth will out.

dc CB 19:52 GMT September 4, 2013
Let's give Obama a chance


SENATE PANEL AUTHORIZES LIMITED U.S. MILITARY STRIKE IN SYRIA

Vote breakdown: 10 Yes; 7 No; 1 Present.


FULL U.S. SENATE TO CONSIDER SYRIA RESOLUTION NEXT WEEK

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:51 GMT September 4, 2013
Chart Points

Preliminary Closing Trading Points...
Latest Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands



Paris ib 19:48 GMT September 4, 2013
Let's give Obama a chance

[email protected] depressing maybe but really I won't be happy till the lot of them are on trial at The Hague for war crimes. Enough is enough. They have already attacked a number of countries without U.N. approval, there has been torture, the U.S. was busy rounding up hundreds of male civilians after raids on homes in the middle of the night in Iraq when they first invaded, those males have never been found, mass graves were found, all played down in the jingoist press. These people are insane criminals. Enough already.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:42 GMT September 4, 2013
Chart Points
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Mtl JP 19:25 GMT September 4, 2013
Let's give Obama a chance

(paper) Gold is only at $1390
crude steady at $107.7
DJIA up 120 points
Raytheon (missiles maker) steady at $76-ish

HK [email protected] 19:09 GMT September 4, 2013
Let's give Obama a chance



ib

The whole situation is very depressing.

All due to lack of professionalism in handling such a crucial event, which could lead to a world war.

Maybe thanks to the internet and fast flowing information, a disaster can be averted.
It should be very interesting to see the UN team investigators result.

Paris ib 19:01 GMT September 4, 2013
Let's give Obama a chance

[email protected] "Obama came out a stupid."

No, it's worse than that, the entire U.S. administration looks like a bunch of flat-footed morons right now, not to mention most of the British press. The U.S. press actually doesn't come out of this too badly (surprisingly) but the British press look like jingoist idiots. Good grief.

PAR 18:49 GMT September 4, 2013
They said.

Lets use diplomacy instead of weapons .

HK [email protected] 18:02 GMT September 4, 2013
They said.



I thought the Germans are a bit more intelligent.
This is rubbish. And not admissible in court.

HK [email protected] 17:58 GMT September 4, 2013
They said.
Reply   


Hezbollah confirms Assad's use of chemical weapons - report

A top Hezbollah official apparently admitted that the Syrian government was behind the use of chemical weapons in Syria, according to German intelligence. Pro-Assad Turks wave flags with his face on it in Hatay, Turkey. (AFP)

بالعربيه
Al Bawaba
NEWS

A top Hezbollah official apparently admitted that the Syrian government was behind the use of chemical weapons in Syria, according to German intelligence. Pro-Assad Turks wave flags with his face on it in Hatay, Turkey. (AFP)
German’s foreign intelligence agency intercepted a phone call between a Hezbollah official and the Iranian Embassy with the former confirming the regime’s use of poisonous gas, saying President Bashar Assad made “a big mistake,” Der Spiegel magazine reported Tuesday.

During a secret briefing to select lawmakers Monday, the head of Germany’s intelligence agency, Gerhard Schindler told politicians that the service listened in on a conversation between a high-ranking Hezbollah official and the Iranian Embassy.

“The Hezbollah functionary seems to have admitted that poison gas was used," Schindler was quoted as saying.

According to Schindler, the Hezbollah official said that "Assad lost his nerves and made a big mistake by ordering the chemical weapons attack.”

Last week, a security source told The Daily Star that at least four Hezbollah fighters were receiving treatment in Beirut after coming into contact with chemical agents in Syria.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said between four and five members came into contact with the chemical agents while searching a group of rebel tunnels in the Damascus suburb of Jobar over the weekend.

In the Der Spiegel article, Schindler said the analysis of the evidence at hand has led the German intelligence service to believe that Assad's regime used sarin gas on its citizens.

http://www.albawaba.com/news/syria-chemical-weapons-proof-hezbollah-assad--518059

Dillon AL 17:51 GMT September 4, 2013
Let's give Obama a chance

RUSSIA SAYS SHELL USED IN ATTACK WASN'T STANDARD SYRIA ORDNANCE

well what we sold them I mean was different...

HK [email protected] 17:45 GMT September 4, 2013
Let's give Obama a chance



Even a good NFP, will not help the USD.
Especially sell gold.

Probably stock markets will shoot up.

Obama came out a stupid.

Now what will be his bargain point.

HK [email protected] 17:41 GMT September 4, 2013
Let's give Obama a chance

HK [email protected] 03:05 GMT September 4, 2013

------------------------------------------------------------
My take.

This is a very important event, so the investigation should be most detailed.

1) Did the investigators identified the means or ways, by which the toxins were delivered?(do they have any bomb samples collected?)

2)It was a night attack, so was it from the ground or from the air?

2) If yes, were they delivered by same means(canisters,bombs, any other containers)?

3) Can they be identified as coming from the same source?

Investigations may have several turning point.

Here we have some circumstantial evidence, which may be insufficient to reach definite conclusions.

Why?
Because the French investigators were lazy, or motivated by the need to show achievements.

dc CB 17:20 GMT September 4, 2013
Let's give Obama a chance


*RUSSIA SAYS SHELL USED IN ATTACK WASN'T STANDARD SYRIA ORDNANCE
*RUSSIA SAYS SHELL USED IN CHEMICAL ATTACK WAS MAKESHIFT DEVICE
*RUSSIA SAYS GAS USED IN SYRIA WASN'T INDUSTRIALLY PRODUCED

Reuters reports, the foreign minstry statement asserts that Russian expert findings show the weapon used in the Syrian chemical attack was similar to the ones made by a rebel group.

Russia Chemical Attack Probe Shows "Weapons Similar To Ones Made By Rebels"

ed kw 17:01 GMT September 4, 2013
United Kingdom

shorted gbp/jpy for its at a top i ran it up see if out steam now and RED good feed back //poss jpy is a dead cat

ed kw 16:52 GMT September 4, 2013
United Kingdom

RED smart man tks

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 16:51 GMT September 4, 2013
United Kingdom

red- that is my assumption also until the actual data prove otherwise.

fwiw U.S. data have turned mixed recently. Mixed means mixed some good and some not so good. Unclear to me where the U.S. is headed, but it could be an extended period of sub-par growth.

london red 16:30 GMT September 4, 2013
United Kingdom

ed, that was my question to john, as may have suggested all summer that strength in the economy will be temporary but data has stayed strong throughout. as for cable, i cannot in a million years see it at high of week pre nfp on friday, so some time between now and then it will come off as people take positions. tomorrow there is a good batch of us data in the afternoon so i would expect it to have printed its pre nfp high by then and of course before that we have the boe meet and it is with certainty that one can say that carney and co will try to talk up gilts and thus gbp lower, but whether this has a lasting effect is going to be very unlikely given the strength of the data prsently.
all of this is of course very short term and trading related, until we get data or evidence to suggest otherwise, one needs to assume that the uk economy is going to do well in H2.

Central Kwun 16:18 GMT September 4, 2013
Gold 1391.40 wfakhoury directional level

Amman wfakhoury 15:54 GMT September 4, 2013
Gold 1391.40 wfakhoury directional level: Reply
Central Kwun 15:40 GMT September 4, 2013
-------------------------
1391.40 wfakhoury directional level
price heading twd 1385.
any rise above 1391.40 will return to it

thx

ed kw 16:13 GMT September 4, 2013
United Kingdom

reasons for this assumption that strength shown in uk will not be sustained? i strongly suggest looking at whats going on at ground level if at all possible. RED is their risks to gbp weekling

ed kw 16:04 GMT September 4, 2013
eurusd

IF SO 155 GO UP TO 165 GBP/JPY

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 16:04 GMT September 4, 2013
Fixed Income

Prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly weaker late in Europe. Peripherials prices are down.


ed kw 16:01 GMT September 4, 2013
eurusd

FERTHE GBP STRENGTH

london red 16:00 GMT September 4, 2013
eurusd

dont follow that pair, ed

ed kw 15:56 GMT September 4, 2013
eurusd

red YOU HAVE A UP TREND IN GBP/JPY WHAT DO YOU SEE,

HK [email protected] 15:54 GMT September 4, 2013
eurusd



Euro has a potential to go up significantly, so 1.3240, is possible up to the close.

Amman wfakhoury 15:54 GMT September 4, 2013
Gold 1391.40 wfakhoury directional level
Reply   
Central Kwun 15:40 GMT September 4, 2013
-------------------------
1391.40 wfakhoury directional level
price heading twd 1385.
any rise above 1391.40 will return to it

london red 15:42 GMT September 4, 2013
eurusd

paris, they will either do stops thru 13220/30 or risk is to do stops under 13150 if things drop off in late ny session into tomorrow morning

Central Kwun 15:40 GMT September 4, 2013
Gold
Reply   
Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

wfakhoury, where are you? I need your guidance

Paris ib 15:38 GMT September 4, 2013
eurusd

Why don't you move your stop to break even?

GVI Forex 15:32 GMT September 4, 2013
Global Markets News
Reply   
US equity indices are sustaining modest gains this morning in the wake of the July trade data, even as the Syria resolution grinds its way across Capitol Hill.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Equities Testing One-Week Highs

Tallinn viies 15:30 GMT September 4, 2013
eurusd
Reply   
hopefully now is short term bottom in place.
previous day high was taken out, so I think euro may move higher now.
left day order to take profid at 1,3253 near 200 hours moving average.
stop still sell if daily close under 1,3140.

GVI Forex Blog 15:24 GMT September 4, 2013 Reply   
September 4. 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, September 5. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- GDP, BOJ, DE- Factory Orders, GB- BOE, EZ- ECB. US- ADP Private Jobs, Weekly Jobless, Productivity, Service PMI

GVI Forex Data Outlook for September 5, 2013

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 15:21 GMT September 4, 2013
Calendar
Reply   


September 4. 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, September 5. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- GDP, BOJ, DE- Factory Orders, GB- BOE, EZ- ECB. US- ADP Private Jobs, Weekly Jobless, Productivity, Service PMI

  • Far East: JP- GDP, BOJ Decision, AU- Trade.
  • Europe: DE- Factory Orders, GB- BOE, EZ- ECB.
  • North America: US- Challenger Layoffs, ADP Private Jobs, Weekly Jobless, Productivity, Service PMI, Factory Orders, Natural Gas, Weekly Crude.


  • Direct links to primary data sources


HK [email protected] 15:16 GMT September 4, 2013
Let's give Obama a chance


London CH

There is no sufficient evidence in this case!!!
Their(US) affidavit is their evidence, which means...

According to the US system, being accused is as good as being convicted.

Paris ib 15:11 GMT September 4, 2013
eurusd

Tallin viies I sincerely hope this one goes your favour. ;-)

London CH 15:11 GMT September 4, 2013
Let's give Obama a chance

Or Putin sees the evidence and agrees under the Security Council guise to a limited strike. No matter what, it is risk on today and don't look to fight it.

ed kw 15:10 GMT September 4, 2013
AUD/USD

JP how fast can aud cot bust .93 than .97 drop to .93

HK [email protected] 15:02 GMT September 4, 2013
Let's give Obama a chance
Reply   

If O. comes back from the G-20, with a solid peace solution for the Syrian issue...

This market will see fireworks!!!

And possibly the market acts now, as if it anticipates for such an event.

Mtl JP 14:56 GMT September 4, 2013
AUD/USD

maybe gunning for 9226-ish

HK [email protected] 14:40 GMT September 4, 2013
Cheap water.



Radioactive water like steroids, may act as nuclear booster for the swimmers, leading to new time records in swimming.
Thus leading to cancellations of all records.

dc CB 14:36 GMT September 4, 2013
Cheap water.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he will tell the International Olympic Committee that leaks of radioactive water at the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant will pose no problem in hosting the 2020 Olympics.

Abe was speaking to reporters as he left for the Group of 20 meeting in St. Petersburg

Japan’s Abe Says Fukushima Will Be Resolved Before 2020 Olympics

HK [email protected] 14:24 GMT September 4, 2013
NZD/USD
Reply   


Will face a serious Res. at 0.7960 if seen, which may result to a 0.7900 pullback.

HK [email protected] 14:12 GMT September 4, 2013
Cheap water.
Reply   
Japan to Spend Almost $500 Million on Water Crisis at Fukushima Nuclear Plant
Japan pledged nearly $500 million to contain leaks and decontaminate radioactive water from the tsunami-crippled Fukushima nuclear plant, stepping up government efforts to cope with the legacy of the worst atomic disaster in a quarter of a century.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=japan-to-spend-almost-500-million-fukushima-nuclear

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:04 GMT September 4, 2013
Canada

Bank of Canada Policy Statement

Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:00 GMT September 4, 2013
Canada

No surprises from Bank of Canada

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:00 GMT September 4, 2013
Canada
Reply   

-- ALERT --
Bank of Canada Policy Decision
Policy Unchanged (1.00%)


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

kl fs 13:56 GMT September 4, 2013
sell audusd
Reply   
sold intraday 0.9170, adding near 90, stop all above 0.9220

HK [email protected] 13:49 GMT September 4, 2013
View about the Psychos leading us to war.
Reply   


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=dkamZg68jpk#t=161

ed kw 13:38 GMT September 4, 2013
AUD/USD

Justin Fabo at ANZ Research says he is still wary of the trend in Australian economic performance and believes the RBA will likely cut rates further:
"Our view that growth in the Australian economy was below trend heading into the second half of 2013, and remains so, is unchanged following today’s figures.
"Gross national expenditure improved 0.6% q/q in Q2 but remained below its level in Q3 2012. Household consumption rose modestly in the quarter, close to our expectation, but growth over the year was weak as wages income slowed sharply.
"Taking a longer term perspective, average growth since the GFC has been noticeably below average
"While overall GDP growth printed close to our expectation, the major surprise to us was much weaker-than-expected business investment in Q2. In particular, new engineering construction declined modestly against our expectation for strong growth.
"This fall is difficult to reconcile with strong growth in this component in the private CAPEX release and an apparent very sharp rise in capital goods imports related to LNG investment in the quarter.
"Today’s numbers and more up to date information are consistent with the RBA’s view that the economy is growing at below-trend rates.
"The Governor’s statement yesterday and recent communications from the Bank, in our view, suggest that the Bank is ‘on hold’ for the time being with a bias to ease, and a hope that the AUD will fall further."

http://www.poundsterlinglive.com/index.php/breaking-news-articles/550-australian-dollar-still-faces-rba-interest-rate-cut-4534543

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:58 GMT September 4, 2013
United States

Let me correct what I wrote earlier. The U.S. trade figure released today was Trade in Goods and Services. Invisibles were included many years ago.

HK [email protected] 12:56 GMT September 4, 2013
AUD/USD
Reply   


Residue of upward momentum may carry it later to 0.9190.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:55 GMT September 4, 2013
United States

Invisible trade

Visible trade is basically "things" like autos, food etc.

Invisibles are services, such as insurance etc.

Mtl JP 12:44 GMT September 4, 2013
United States

what is "Visible Trade" ? vs ___ ?
tia

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:36 GMT September 4, 2013
United States



U.S. Visible Trade. Deficit widens. A correction from June data? This pertains to 3Q13 GDP...

Mtl JP 12:33 GMT September 4, 2013
United Kingdom

Carney's BoE rate call due tomorrow. (0.5%, asset purchase program at £375 billion) . Take your chances with the slick meddler putting out a (dovish) statement.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:31 GMT September 4, 2013
United States
Reply   

-- ALERT --
U.S. Trade (USD bn) July 2013
-39.1 vs. -38.6 exp. vs. -34.2 (r -34.54)prev.

Canada Trade C$ bln June 2013
-0.931 vs. -0.40 exp. vs. -0.47 (r -0.461) prev.


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Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:15 GMT September 4, 2013
United States-Canada
Reply   
July trade data due at the bottom of the hour. This was once the top statistic for forex Trading (Purchasing Power Parity theory). Now its mainly watched for its potential impact on GDP data. A trade deficit is a net subtraction from GDP and a trade surplus is a net addition. The latest upward revision to 2Q13 GDP came in part from a shrinking U.S. trade gap.

Mtl JP 12:13 GMT September 4, 2013
;;
Reply   
La mise en garde d'Assad à la France

Assad's warning to France - le figaro

london red 11:02 GMT September 4, 2013
euro

then not than 13220.

london red 10:50 GMT September 4, 2013
euro
Reply   
just poking its nose above fibo at 13184, if sustained can see a run at the 100 hour a little higher than 13220. higher than that today is unlikely given the amount of important us data due by the end of the week. outside chance of 13260/80 if 13220 overcome but would certainly look to sell those levels in prep for us data.

GVI Forex 10:09 GMT September 4, 2013
Global Markets News
Reply   
The GBP continued to benefit from economic data releases. The PMI Services came in at its beat reading since late 2006. ING analyst noted that the BoE might start tightening before H1 2015 due to stronger data well ahead of the Q3 2016 suggested by the Central Bank

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: PMI Services data easing concerns over global slowdown

london red 10:06 GMT September 4, 2013
United Kingdom

john, reasons for this assumption that strength shown in uk will not be sustained? i strongly suggest looking at whats going on at ground level if at all possible.
currently, as you say, the underlying trend is for stronger gdp. yes q2 wasnt great, remember gdp is backward looking and will need to play catch up come q3 release time. july and august to date have been stellar as far as data has been concerned. i think we have had only one miss, but more importantly, data is improving on previous as well as beating.

bali sja 10:00 GMT September 4, 2013
United Kingdom

cable should trade well above 1.5 for the remainder of this year IMHO

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:55 GMT September 4, 2013
United Kingdom

Once again, UK data today have reinforced the perception that the British economy is on an improving path and the GBP is the outlier (stronger) among all the major currencies today. I try to take an unbiased look at data as it comes, but, like Paris ib indicates, I have to admit that I do wonder if this improvement will be sustained.

All I can suggest is not to fight the tape and continue to take the TOTALITY of the data as it comes. Currently, the totality of the data suggest a strong recovery.

Paris ib 09:16 GMT September 4, 2013
EZ Service PMIs mixed. U.K. up. Syrian uncertainty persists

Russia (or rather Putin) has come right out and said that an attack on Syria without U.N. authorisation would be considered an act of aggression on a sovereign nation, which just happens to be a Russian ally.

Putin gives overt warning

Mtl JP 09:14 GMT September 4, 2013
Fixed Income

"Treasuries fell the most in almost two weeks as a gauge of U.S. manufacturing rose more than forecast in August, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve will soon announce plans to reduce monetary stimulus." - bloomberg

what IF NOT ? what might happen to volatility if market gets a shock to its taper consensus ?

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:11 GMT September 4, 2013
EZ Service PMIs mixed. U.K. up. Syrian uncertainty persists
Reply   

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Trade, Beige Book, CA- BOC decision

  • The Syrian situation just does not go away as the U.S. administration works to gain political support for some sort of action against the Assad regime.The government is split on what actions, if any, should be taken for a variety of reasons,  The leadership of the Republicans and Democrats endorsed action by Obama.

  • Revisions to European Service PMI reports were split, but still  signal an improving economic performances. The U.K. Services PMI was stronger than expected again and reinforced other data pointing to growth. See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts

  • President Obama backing down  from his threat of military action vs.Syria gave equity markets a boost..Obama will  attend  the G20in St. Petersburg in Russia later this week. We don't expect much from the meeting.

  • Today sees a policy decision by the Bank of Canada. U.K. and the ECB decisions are due on Thursday.. Friday features key U.S. employment data. Thursday  and Friday are Jewish holidays which could limit dealer participation. On Saturday Australia holds national elections.

  • For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar and see the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
EURUSD 1.3318
JGB 0.76% +1bp
Asia Close Mixed
USDJPY 97.78
Bund 1.93% -2bp
Europe Lower
EURJPY 130.23
U.S. 2.87% +2bp
North America: Lower

GVI Forex Blog 09:10 GMT September 4, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Trade, Beige Book, CA- BOC decision The Syrian situation just does not go away as the U.S. administration works to gain political support for some sort of action against the Assad regime.The government is split on what actions, if any, should be taken for a variety of reasons, The leadership of the Republicans and Democrats endorsed action by Obama.

EZ Service PMIs mixed. U.K. up. Syrian uncertainty persists

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:08 GMT September 4, 2013
Eurozone



EZ 2Q13 GDP unrevised Q/Q but a bit stronger y/y.


GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:01 GMT September 4, 2013
Eurozone

-- ALERT --
Eurozone Real Retail Sales July 2013
mm: +0.10% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. -0.50% (r -0.70% %) prev.
yy: -1.30% vs. -0.30% exp. vs. -0.90% prev. (r -1.10%)


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GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:00 GMT September 4, 2013
Eurozone

-- ALERT --
EZ GDP 2Q13
qq: +0.30% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.
yy: -0.5% vs. -0.70% exp. vs. -0.70% prev.


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Paris ib 08:52 GMT September 4, 2013
United Kingdom

I won't argue the point with you red. Suffice to say I expect 'economic strength' to prove ephemeral.

london red 08:45 GMT September 4, 2013
United Kingdom

stocks always dip when signs are rates are to go up. but rates are forecast higher due to economic strength which ultimately drives earnings and supports the share price of individual stocks. tip of the day, logistics do ery well, ahead of the curve earnings growth compared to gdp!

Paris ib 08:33 GMT September 4, 2013
United Kingdom

And the stock market continues to sell off !! Bond yields are what count.... and the outlook is for higher yields.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:32 GMT September 4, 2013
United Kingdom



U.K. August Services PMI stronger than expected again.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:28 GMT September 4, 2013
United Kingdom
Reply   

-- ALERT --
GB Services PMI August 2013
60.5 vs. 59.9 exp. vs. 60.2 prev.



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london red 08:20 GMT September 4, 2013
Eurozone

ez pmi best since 2 years, uk due up next. a good number should see cable retest those 15600/20 offers but gains may be difficult to hold onto given up coming us data. that said, should be stickier than euro and ought to hold the 10 day ma at the very least.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:10 GMT September 4, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply   
Prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly weaker early in Europe. Peripherials are higher.


GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:05 GMT September 4, 2013
Eurozone



EZ, German and French final Services PMI. France and Germany revised higher...

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:03 GMT September 4, 2013
Eurozone



EZ, final Services PMI revised slighly lower. Above the key 50 level.


GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 07:58 GMT September 4, 2013
Eurozone
Reply   

-- ALERT --
EZ Final Service PMI August 2013
Svc:50.7 vs. 51.0 (flash) exp. vs. 51.0 prev.
France:48.9 vs.47.7 (flash) exp. vs. 47.7
Germany 52.8 vs. 52.4 (flash) exp. vs. 52.4



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Paris ib 07:41 GMT September 4, 2013
Europe

:-)

PAR 07:38 GMT September 4, 2013
Europe

Eyes wide shut .

Paris ib 07:34 GMT September 4, 2013
Europe

I wonder do they do dress ups in these meetings? :-)

Dress ups

bali sja 07:32 GMT September 4, 2013
Europe

ib, GS wanted 1.40 euro

PAR 07:30 GMT September 4, 2013
Europe

Secret agreement by Draghi and Bernanke to keep EURUSD around 1.3000 like the former European snake ?

Everything seems to be decided in obscure meetings by Draghi and Bernanke .

Paris ib 07:29 GMT September 4, 2013
Europe

red I always thought the Euro 'crisis' was 'manufactured' with specific political aims in mind, so I don't believe the houpla, either one way or the other. The European economy is not about to crash, there is a recovery, you can hype that if you want to in view of elections..... But I do wonder about how well the exchange rate is managed. It seems it is very well 'managed'. So I just wonder about the value in trading EUR/USD unless something really fundamental happens. And yes I think the odds favour a USD fall in that case.

bali sja 07:27 GMT September 4, 2013
Europe

red, recent data for services have been quite good especially for UK, should be positive for euro and cable today

london red 07:25 GMT September 4, 2013
Europe

ib, i wouldnt say booming, but certain industries are finding a footing and a bottom certainly is in place. Not sure anyone can gloat as its been a very long multi year recession. But month on month things are slowly improving and each month you can point to something new. This week we have have seen apanish pmis move to above 50 for the firstctime since the crisis took hold. Small victories build foundarions for the future. Germany services up soon followed by uk services.

Paris ib 07:16 GMT September 4, 2013
Europe

"With elections in Germany coming up Europe is booming"

lol... what a very convenient coincidence. ;-)

Meanwhile back on the farm, with all the houpla, it looks very likely that EUR/USD will start the year (2014) around 1.31 for what? the fourth year in a row? Or is it longer than that?

bali sja 07:12 GMT September 4, 2013
Europe

PAR, time to sell usd across the board

PAR 07:09 GMT September 4, 2013
Europe
Reply   
Looks like European GDP and Retail sales will be much stronger than economists have predicted.With elections in Germany coming up Europe is booming .

HK [email protected] 06:36 GMT September 4, 2013
Hii



Sakarya

Looks like AUD is defeating gravity of all negative forecasts.
Looks like 0.9190 next

HK [email protected] 06:33 GMT September 4, 2013
Something new pops up.



Yes, indeed they were looking too good to be dead.

Exhumation is needed.

Wait Obama wait.

Sakarya 06:32 GMT September 4, 2013
Hii
Reply   
Sell AUDUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

HK @RF Any opinion about AUDUSD ?

HK [email protected] 06:27 GMT September 4, 2013
Something new pops up.
Reply   

Putin says 'there is an opinion' that video of children killed in chemical attack in Syria is 'compliation by al-Qaida-connected bandits': Interfax - @Reuters

GVI Forex Blog 06:22 GMT September 4, 2013 Reply   
- Risk appetite tempered after House Speaker Boehner voiced support for Syria action; US Senate foreign relations committee also issues resolution to approve military action, but no longer than 90 day

radeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Better than expected Australia GDP pushes AUD/USD above $0.91; Senate committee approves 90-day Syria action***Observations/Insights*** - Source TradeTheNews.com

Haifa ac 06:01 GMT September 4, 2013
For your bunker bookshelf

BUCHANAN said it well: No Syrian war to save Obama's face!

HK [email protected] 05:41 GMT September 4, 2013
For your bunker bookshelf



David of Arabia, and Obama, are not idiots, they are just POSSESSD:::)))

Haifa ac 05:20 GMT September 4, 2013
For your bunker bookshelf

"President Obama won the support on Tuesday "

LOLOL "PROPORTIONAL AND LIMITED"....this is what "president" Obama said repeatedly.
You do NOT deter a ruthless genocider with "proportional and limited" response.
President Obama is an IDIOT!

bali sja 05:12 GMT September 4, 2013
buy euro
Reply   
buy euro 1.3165, stop under 1.3120, target 1.3335

jkt abel 04:38 GMT September 4, 2013
audusd
Reply   
audusd may drift higher towards 0.9330-50 while euro is more on defensive mode, cable looks heading higher as well IMHO
so maybe a case of short eurgbp and euraud

dc CB 04:31 GMT September 4, 2013
For your bunker bookshelf

Hollywood
ahead of the curve lol :))))

Godzilla Movie (2014) Trailer

dc CB 04:21 GMT September 4, 2013
For your bunker bookshelf

RUN!

TOKYO - Wed Sep 4, 2013 12:10am EDT

(Reuters) - Radiation readings around tanks holding contaminated water at the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant have spiked by more than a fifth to their highest levels, Japan's nuclear regulator said,

The rising radiation levels and leaks at the plant have prompted international alarm, and the Japanese government said on Tuesday it would step in with almost $500 million of funding to fix the growing levels of contaminated water at the plant.

Readings just above the ground near a set of tanks at the plant showed radiation as high as 2,200 millisieverts (mSv), the Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) said on Wednesday. The previous high in areas holding the tanks was the 1,800 mSv recorded on Saturday.

Both levels would be enough to kill an unprotected person within hours.


The NRA has said the recently discovered hotspots are highly concentrated and easily shielded.

Record radiation readings near Fukushima contaminated water tanks

dc CB 04:08 GMT September 4, 2013
French Report Concludes Syrian Government Used Sarin

Ketchup,
or as some would prefer Catsup

Ketchup and Catsup are condiments usually made with ripened tomatoes. The term "ketchup" is more popular in most countries; "catsup" is used in some parts of southern U.S.

US Secretary of State John Kerry's cosy Dinner Pictures with Syria's Assad LEAKED

Hong Kong AceTrader 03:24 GMT September 4, 2013
Sept 4 : Daily Market Outlook on Minors/Crosses AUD/USD
Reply   
DAILY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.9099
04 Sep 2013 02:42GMT

Aud's rally fm last Fri's 0.8893 low to 0.9073
y'day signals fall fm Aug's top at 0.9234 has made
a temp. low there n stronger retrace. of intermedi-
ate decline fm 0.9234 to 0.9099, however, reckon
0.9133 res shud cap upside due to o/b condition.

Buy on dips for this move n only below 0.8964
wud suggest recovery is possibly over, 0.8924.

STRATEGY : Hold long

POSITION : Long at 0.9070

OBJECTIVE : 0.9130

STOP-LOSS : 0.9060

RES : 0.9133/0.9190/0.9234

SUP : 0.9038/0.8964/0.8924

HK [email protected] 03:06 GMT September 4, 2013
French Report Concludes Syrian Government Used Sarin



Source.

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2013/09/03/french-report-sarin-attack-syria/

HK [email protected] 03:05 GMT September 4, 2013
French Report Concludes Syrian Government Used Sarin
Reply   


On Monday the French government released a declassified report summarizing the evidence that it has gathered about three separate chemical weapons attacks on civilian populations in Syria. The report concluded that the two earlier attacks were basically practice runs as the Syrian regime’s adjusted its tactics and objectives away from battlefield objectives and towards raining terror on civilian populations.

I still have questions about the actual amount of sarin used—and the precise concentration—issues that the French report was rather vague about. And I am puzzled, given how toxic the August 21 attack apparently was, by videos that seem to show responders carrying the victims without benefit of protective gloves or masks. Given how easily sarin contaminates the clothing and skin, you would have expected these first responders to have shown signs of having been poisoned themselves. (I’m not saying that it wasn’t sarin; this is just a question mark in my mind.) The French report seems to anticipate that point by noting cases in which first responders were poisoned as well.

The observation of many young children suffering from severe symptoms (including convulsions), at eight different sites, makes it very unlikely that these scenes were staged or somehow manipulated by the opposition. These findings, as well as multiple video sources and testimonies, exclude any possibility of falsification by the opposition.

The massive influx of patients in a very short time in different hospitals, the number of victims and their location at several different sites, reinforced by the analysis of all the information at our disposal, are characteristic of the effects of an attack using highly lethal chemical weapons. They confirm that a massive and coordinated attack was carried out in the night of 21 August 2013
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2013/09/03/french-report-sarin-attack-syria/
------------------------------------------------------------
My take.

This is a very important event, so the investigation should be most detailed.

1) Did the investigators identified the means or ways, by which the toxins were delivered?(do they have any bomb samples collected?)

2)It was a night attack, so was it from the ground or from the air?

2) If yes, were they delivered by same means(canisters,bombs, any other containers)?

3) Can they be identified as coming from the same source?

Investigations may have several turning point.

Here we have some circumstantial evidence, which may be insufficient to reach definite conclusions.

Why?
Because the French investigators were lazy, or motivated by the need to show achievements.

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:24 GMT September 4, 2013
Sept 4 : Dollar pares gains as U.S. legislators backs military action in Syria
Reply   
Market Review - 03/09/2013 22:24GMT

Dollar pares gains as U.S. legislators backs military action in Syria

The greenback pared its early gains versus yen and euro on Tuesday after U.S. Congressional leaders voiced their support for President Obama's recent call for limited military intervention in Syria. U.S. House speaker Boehner says 'use of chemical weapons in Syria has to be responded to, only the U.S. has the capacity to stop Assad; will support Obama's call for action in Syria, believes colleagues should do the same; U.S. allies need to know America will stand up when necessary.'

Versus the Japanese yen, dollar went through a roller-coaster session on Tuesday, although the pair extended recent gain to 99.68 at Tokyo open due to the rally in Japan's Nikkei index but then retreated to 99.32, price rose marginally higher to 99.70 in European morning but retreated sharply to 99.17 on news that Russian Defence Ministry as it said 'detected two ballistic "objects" fired toward Eastern Mediterranean.' Later, dollar staged another rebound as the Russian embassy in Syria said 'no sign of missile attack or explosions in Damascus after ballistic launches detected' and eventually climbed to a 1-month top at 99.86 in New York morning after the release of better-than-expected U.S. construction spending and ISM manufacturing but only to tank to 99.24 in New York afternoon after comments from Republican House Speaker John Boehner expressing support for strike action in Syria.

U.S. construction spending came in at 0.6%, versus the forecast of 0.4% and the revised 0.0% in Jun. U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 55.7, better than the market expectation of 54.0.

The single currency traded narrowly in Asia and dropped to 1.3161 in European morning. Later, despite euro's brief recovery to 1.3187, dollar's broad-based strength due to the upbeat U.S. construction spending and ISM manufacturing PMI pressured euro to a fresh 6-week low at 1.3138 in New York morning before climbing back to 1.3179 in New York afternoon.

The British pound edged higher to 1.5562 in Asia before a brief pullback to 1.5537. Later, although the pair rose strongly to a 1-week top at 1.5605 after the release of better-than-expected U.K. construction PMI (59.1 versus the forecast of 56.9), cross selling of sterling pressured price and cable fell sharply to 1.5522 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based strength before recovering to 1.5573.

In other news, German Chancellor Merkel said 'unusually challenging' events over 4 years term; German debt reduction "sensational success"; her goal is further reducing joblessness; election is about extending German "success"; euro crisis caused by "broken promises"; pooling euro debt "won't happen with us".' Spain's Economic Minister Guindos said 'Aug jobless claims show market stabilizing; leading indicators show positive signs; rule out further capital injections for nationalized banks.'

On the data front, eurozone PPI in July came in at 0.3% m/m n 0.2% y/y, versus the forecast of 0.1% and 0.1% respectively. U.S. Markit PMI final was 53.1, weaker than the forecast of 54.0.

Data to be released on Wednesday :

Australia GDP, China HSBC Markit Service PMI, U.K. Service PMI, shop price index, France Service PMI, PPI, Italy Service PMI, EU Service PMI, GDP, retail sales, Germany Service PMI, Canada import, export, trade balance, rate decision, U.S. trade balance, retail sales on Wednesday.

tokyo ginko 02:09 GMT September 4, 2013
Aussie GDP

will add higher @ 9130 levels

GVI Forex 02:09 GMT September 4, 2013
China
Reply   
HSBC CHINA SERVICES PMI 52.8 AUG VS 51.3 JUL

Auckland NJ 01:59 GMT September 4, 2013
EurAud
Reply   
Any views on EurAud as it seems to have broken its up trend over last week, where to from here?

dc CB 01:55 GMT September 4, 2013
For your bunker bookshelf



WASHINGTON — President Obama won the support on Tuesday of Republican and Democratic leaders in the House for an attack on Syria, giving him a foundation to win broader approval for military action from a Congress that still harbors deep reservations.

House Leaders Express Their Support for Syria Strike

Mtl JP 01:47 GMT September 4, 2013
Aussie GDP

say audusd touches 0.91
what then ?

Syd Jm 01:40 GMT September 4, 2013
Aussie GDP
Reply   
Statisticians at work again:
http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/growth-rate-slow-but-on-target-20130904-2t4g4.html

Mtl JP 01:40 GMT September 4, 2013
short aud/usd

ozzie GDP: +0.6% q/q vs. exp +0.5%, prv +0.6%

dc CB 01:35 GMT September 4, 2013
For your bunker bookshelf
Reply   


The Wave
just the parts with Lad Hamilton surfing.
VG bedtime story


cheers ginko. from my perspective. take the money and flee to below the equator...NZ...before you are toasted.

Your "leaders" are bonkers

Surfs Up

Mtl JP 01:33 GMT September 4, 2013
short aud/usd

I saw the spread on this puppy go up ten-fold

dc CB 01:19 GMT September 4, 2013
usd/jpy position trade

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/277637-japan-tokyo-earthquake-reported-on-september-4/?photo=2

http://earthquake-report.com/2013/09/04/very-strong-earthquake-izu-islands-japan-region-on-september-4-2013/

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/09/04/usgs-earthquake-southern-japan-magnitude-6-4-4-september-2013/

?????????????????????????????????????????????????

GVI Forex 01:03 GMT September 4, 2013
Forex News
Reply   
* Yen treads water as BOJ begins 2-day meeting

* Aussie steady ahead of Australia Q2 GDP report

FOREX NEWS - Dollar firm after U.S. data backs expected turn in Fed policy

Dillon AL 00:41 GMT September 4, 2013
USDJPY

Dillon AL 01:10 GMT September 3, 2013

dc CB 00:40 GMT September 4, 2013
usd/jpy position trade

The PBS NewsHour did a segment on Fukushima tonight. Re: the Freeze Wall, as well as saying that the containment tanks that were quickly built to hold the contaminated water were "bolted together and not welded to save time and cost"...the panelists agreed that bolted tanks would be expected to leak.

No mention of radioactive water reaching the West coast of North America or any concerns about tuna/salamon/ other edible seafood.

The Freeze "solution" could work for a time...unless there is a loss of power...but eventually, as the water is coming down from the hills above the plant and will continue to accumulate, it will top the freeze wall.

But, since the ruling party was Pro Nuc and would not face an election for 6 years....pretty much...God Help Us All

Mtl JP 00:39 GMT September 4, 2013
usd/jpy position trade

usdyen needs to first get thru 100 and 100.50

dc CB 00:31 GMT September 4, 2013
Now war looks more likely a done deal.



forces on the move to keep the hoi polloi complacent

odd(?) donna' ya think, given the rise and potential of WTIC

tokyo ginko 00:22 GMT September 4, 2013
usd/jpy position trade

earthquake hit japan...ok..here

 




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