GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 22:28 GMT September 6, 2013
AUD
ACC- thanks for your insight...
Sydney ACC 22:24 GMT September 6, 2013
AUD
The uncertainty doesn't lie with which party will win the election for House of Representatives but more so the composition of the Senate.
Its unlikely the Coalition will control the Senate leaving the Greens and independents holding the balance of power. Given this is the result the new government will find themselves unable to repeal legislation covering the carbon and mineral taxes.
Political commentators are suggesting the likelihood of political turmoil over the next twelve months if the new government is unable to work with those holding the balance of power. To break the logjam there could possibly be a double dissolution followed by a joint sitting of both houses, something that has not occurred since the mid-seventies.
Those waiting for greater clarity in the governing of Australia following the election may therefore be disappointed.
HK RF@ 20:16 GMT September 6, 2013
AUD
Reply
For the daily it looks like a bullish engulfing pattern, but the only problem is, that it has been formed after a strong bullish price run in an O.B situation.
Possibly because traders expect 0.9270 Monday after the elections.
The risk: Holding a position over an uncertain weekend.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:58 GMT September 6, 2013
Calendar
Reply
UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data
for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.
Israel Dil 19:48 GMT September 6, 2013
Russia Sends Warship With 'Special Cargo' To Syria
more people die of hunger and solving the problem is much cheaper than the one in Syria. so why all that happens?
Syria in peace contract with Israel and here they go to London, oops, here they drive to London. a reason for a war or just a reason for the humus maniacs?
New York MargaretLekker 19:43 GMT September 6, 2013
Russia Sends Warship With 'Special Cargo' To Syria
Buy
Entry: Target: Stop:
These problems directly affect the market:
Reports of increased Russian naval presence near Syria have stoked fears of an international conflict if the U.S. decides to attack the Syrian regime targets in retaliation for the use of chemical weapons against civilians.
ed kw 19:14 GMT September 6, 2013
Russia Sends Warship With 'Special Cargo' To Syria
Remember what happened in Libya? The pre-intervention nerves were on edge, leading to rising oil prices, but once the tomahawks were in the air and all that Libyan oil was becoming a reality in the minds of the eager, oil prices dropped
Livingston nh 19:09 GMT September 6, 2013
Global Markets News
The focus has been on NFP but the Household survey (NSA) showed an actual decline in the number of employed (not unusual in Aug) -- the unemployment rate dipped despite that -- the rate is on trend to dip below 7% by yr end // Fed's Evans said this morning he think the unemployment rate may be somewhat below 7% by the end of NEXT year -- and it's this type of thinking that always puts the Fed behind the curve
Mtl JP 18:12 GMT September 6, 2013
Russia Sends Warship With 'Special Cargo' To Syria
from the link below:
Items leaders agreed on included:
� a flexible approach to spurring economic growth and jobs, while keeping debts and deficit in check. This was radically different from the hard debt-to-GDP ratio targets that Harper was pushing for nations to adopt.
� a commitment to the automatic exchange of tax information among nations, rather than just on a by-request basis. The G20 nations also urged other countries to get on board.
� a directive to each country to look for ways to unlock investment dollars within the private sector, particularly for major infrastructure projects. The G20 had been examining the wealth held by mutual funds, insurance companies and other bodies.
Israel Dil 17:56 GMT September 6, 2013
Russia Sends Warship With 'Special Cargo' To Syria
LOL
what's the load of the ship? Stupidity !
Russia interest in Syria is directed at the rich oil/gas offshore, that's it.
the genial markets we all trade are reacting with rising oil prices about oil fields that will increase the supply. meanwhile, there is no single risk for actual supply. so trade a scenario and not economical facts.
hope I helped someone with this post.
HK RF@ 17:33 GMT September 6, 2013
Russia Sends Warship With 'Special Cargo' To Syria
Reply
A Russian warship carrying "special cargo" will be dispatched toward Syria, a navy source said on Friday, as the Kremlin beefs up its presence in the region ahead of possible US strikes against the Damascus regime.
The large landing ship Nikolai Filchenkov will on Friday leave the Ukrainian port city of Sevastopol for the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, from where it will head to Syria's coast, the Interfax news agency quoted a source from the Saint Petersburg-based central naval command as saying.
"The ship will make call in Novorossiisk, where it will take on board special cargo and set off for the designated area of its combat duty in the eastern Mediterranean," the source said.
The source did not specify the nature of the cargo.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-sends-warship-with-special-cargo-to-syria-2013-9#ixzz2e8PTIZIY
Guess: Missile defense systems?
Electromagnetic scrambling equipment, and what else?
Just to make bad to the Americans.
Mtl JP 16:40 GMT September 6, 2013
Global Markets News
Mexican central bank cuts policy interest rate by 25bps to 3.75%
Mtl JP 16:22 GMT September 6, 2013
Russia/Syria
current Gold is relatively stable under 1390.
In theory, if the House should somehow vote to refuse the fools' Syrian war resolution, usd should find some bid. On the other hand if the warmongers get their vote (or the fool starts to blast regardless), Gold should rocket and dollar dive.
-
In an hour or so voting hawk George gives his 5 cents on the economy.
Over the weekend China puts out its Trade number
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 16:19 GMT September 6, 2013
Fixed Income
Note the U.S. 10-yr yields are off their LOD.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 16:18 GMT September 6, 2013
Fixed Income
Prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly better in Europe after a disappointing U.S. jobs report today. Peripherials prices are mixed.
Mtl JP 16:11 GMT September 6, 2013
Russia/Syria
dc CB 15:14 / ok for WS. as far as the watching the folks who have spent countless energies and monies to gain a seat of power, just sit back and enjoy the show as they contort and try to avoid using it for fear of losing it
dc CB 16:10 GMT September 6, 2013
Calendar
Auctions up next week.
3s,10s,30s.
Tues, Wed Thurs.
HK RF@ 16:02 GMT September 6, 2013
Whoever wins the elections in Australia, RBA will bring it down.it down soon.
Kevin.
We have to remember that AUD is long term targeting 0.8100(not only my view). For today I expect a correction.
But daily up-momentum remained good, where other time frames not so.
About the NZD I expect a retest of 0.8160, so AUD too eventually will be higher at that time.
dc CB 15:45 GMT September 6, 2013
Russia/Syria
AP
McCain: 'There Would Be An Impeachment' Of Obama If He Put Boots On Ground
link
HK RF@ 15:20 GMT September 6, 2013
euro
All bad USD stories are likely discounted.
Anymore bad ones? NO!
For safety, remove your profits from the Mkt.
london red 15:17 GMT September 6, 2013
euro
Reply
euro. stops likely above 13200 and 13220, but worth fading. much followthru not likely as doubt market wants to be short usd over weekend and at hod. for euro.
dc CB 15:14 GMT September 6, 2013
Russia/Syria
JP
they rolled out the old Pro IraqWar pundits last week.
Same people, same arguments...this is why it's getting no traction with the general public. Plus Kerry was proved to be a traitor when he ran against Bush, who could believe him.
But on Wall Street...get to play the same game everyday and it never gets old...churn churn churn.
V shot off the 10AM low to recover all morning loses. Dow Must not Close in the Red.
And "They shall not think ill of you while standing by the pump"
(chart from Thurs close)
Impeach the mf....lol
ed kw 15:10 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
retailers report next week and its part of jobs report poss bad usd
Paris ib 15:02 GMT September 6, 2013
russia/Syria
Percy I can't understand the belligerence of the British. Goodness me the sun has well and truly set. Deal with it. Anyway with regard to this conflict we will see. I note it is nicely timed to coincide with the whole taper issue. And please note location is not an indication of nationality. Though I assume you are a pom, limey etc. and I suppose you supported Thatcher after she sunk the Belgrado. And subsequently she closed down the British coal industry and brought in a heavily subsidised nuclear power industry to replace it. And the British public went along with that because of the fever of the Falklands War. Well done.
HK RF@ 15:01 GMT September 6, 2013
russia/Syria
I reiterate: NO WAR!!!!!!!!!
Tremendous opposition from every direction, from in and outside the US.
UK Percy 14:55 GMT September 6, 2013
russia/Syria
Reply
Monsieur la frog.....
An attack is already decided by the real powers behind O. O is just playing the " the good cop routine' by pretending to seek Congress approval...as far as UK parliament is concerned, it was decided that new world conflicts needed a "new fresh European player " , hence UK stays on the sidelines for this one and France is in. UK will get involved again when extremist elements in Syria need to be dealt with, post Assad.
Paris ib 14:54 GMT September 6, 2013
Russia/Syria
He didn't call for a vote on Libya because there were no Russian warships ready and waiting. Putin drew a line in the sand this time. Britain has backed off. Next the U.S.
GVI Forex Blog 14:54 GMT September 6, 2013
Reply
September 6. 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, September 9. Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: AU- NATIONAL ELECTIONS, CN- Trade, CPI
GVI Forex Data Outlook for September 9, 2013
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:52 GMT September 6, 2013
Calendar
Reply
September 6. 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, September 9.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: AU- NATIONAL ELECTIONS, CN- Trade, CPI
dc CB 14:52 GMT September 6, 2013
Russia/Syria
Why do you think he is calling a vote?
he may have not gotten a BJob in the Oval Office. But attacking without a vote...with most of the population against it...will fuel the call to Impeach...he's on shakey ground here...there are rumblings for Impeachment already from some.
And it is the House that would bring the call for Impeachment...the Senate(where the O has majority support) has no say.
imho
HK RF@ 14:49 GMT September 6, 2013
Russia/Syria
Forget about it guyz..no war.
But many will close positions for this weekend not to be exposed to any risk on one or the other side.
AUD, and NZD looking capped.
Probably can't squeze more out for today.
No fears of war but of fearing traders:)
Close all positions and relax.
Paris ib 14:46 GMT September 6, 2013
Russia/Syria
Percy did the U.K. vote against an attack bother you? If Obama gets a no vote that means no attack. Why do you think he is calling a vote?
Manila Tom 14:46 GMT September 6, 2013
Sell GBP/USD
No stop is safe
UK Percy 14:40 GMT September 6, 2013
Russia/Syria
Reply
Russia is owed over 7 bill for outstanding arms contracts. If Assad goes russkis loose their money.....russkis are just posturing....very similar to when Yeltsin send tanks to the Serbian conflict and Russia became the laughing stock of world.....Same situation here...Russia is not what it was but there is a little man in charge with a big mans syndrome that thinks they are......US will press ahead with strikes and alter the balance of the conflict.....if estremist seize power after then, then more bombings will fix it...will be easier to deal with.....russki Syrian position will affect them more than anyone else...Any foreign investment that they badly need to upgrade their corroding pipelines and mining capital equipment will all but disappear......everything else that is n the media is nonsense..
dc CB 14:34 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
Yes, as noted before this is all part of The Great Game...aka the Pipeline Wars.
the only question is why Now...it certianly takes the attention off many other things in the US: the economy. the debt ceiling, the government running out of money, Snowden's revelations about NSA in what now are daily revelations from the Guardian, the Wash Post, and today's NY Times...all those "safe" encrypted SSL SECURE settings that your browser uses when you do online banking...or Trade...well not so much.
N.S.A. Able to Foil Basic Safeguards of Privacy on Web
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/06/us/nsa-foils-much-internet-encryption.html?hp
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Here's a link to another take on the Great Game
Why Syria?
HK Kevin 14:33 GMT September 6, 2013
Sell GBP/USD
Reply
Chart says sell GBP/USD at 1.5640, stop around 1.5710 should be safe.
Mtl JP 14:32 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
war is diplomatic negotiation - just a harsh(er) version
ed kw 14:30 GMT September 6, 2013
oil
Reply
Syria found big offshore oil and gas field,rusha is protecting this for future development
HK RF@ 14:26 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
They should negotiate!!!
Paris ib 14:25 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
RF@ it's not about Syria. It's about Russia vs the Anglo-American empire.
HK RF@ 14:21 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
Both sides of the Syrian conflict are A'ssholes.
Why waste tax payer's money.
Let them fight until the bitter end.
Paris ib 14:18 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
JP so there's Obama's excuse to back down. Question is: what does that mean for the market? Initial stock market rally? The whole brou ha ha should come to a conclusion about the time the taper announcement is made. How bloody convenient.
london red 14:18 GMT September 6, 2013
loonie
Reply
support 10380, stops likely below
Paris ib 14:13 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
Putin seems a bit peculiar. Obama downright creepy. Hollande a fool and Cameron a stupid toff. So it's not a happy situation. However I do not believe in Obama's noble motives at all. The whole Syrian / Arab Spring thing is a head fake in my opinion. It's face off between two empires by proxy. And the U.S. just overplayed its hand.
Mtl JP 14:10 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
Obama will make his case for military action in Syria to the American people in a speech from the White House on Tuesday, he said at a news conference on Friday.
stocks puking
Paris ib 14:10 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
nh beg to differ on this one. Putin will not negotiate. Britain has already backed down. Obama is in the process. Hollande will end up with egg all over his face.
london red 14:09 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
paris i didnt say syria should or should not be bombed. my comment was directed towards putins outbursts.
Central Kwun 14:08 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:
Russia said they will support sydia if start a war
Livingston nh 14:08 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
Russia and the US have a rule "Bluster but don't blunder" -- do not engage directly // Syrian/Iranian response could be a problem
Putin will maneuver to a limited strike or sanctions thru UN -- I don't what we trade for that -- maybe France
Paris ib 14:02 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
Either Obama and Hollande back down or we go in for WWIII. The only reason that Obama is taking this to a vote in the States is so he has an excuse to back down. There was no vote regarding the attack on Libya, which was a humanitarian disaster and still is. Hollande isn't bright enough to take it to a vote in France so he can back down, but he will if Obama can't go ahead. red I have no idea why you think Obama should go ahead and attack Syria, the British Parliament have already ruled out any such attack. Were they all fools too?
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:02 GMT September 6, 2013
Canada
Canadian PMIs (Ivey and RBC-Markit). August Ivey PMI back above 50.
HK Kevin 14:00 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
Still hold short CHF/USD and GBP/CHF opened today earlier.
HK Kevin 13:59 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
London red and dc CB, thanks. Can't found this in my news feeder. Just close my GBP/JPY position.
london red 13:55 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
just putin being the usual dickhe4d that he is, fighting talk from a bankcrupt state.
caused a stir by bad mouthing uk semi officially and by suggesting attack on syria will not affect russia syria relationship i.e more arms sales
dc CB 13:55 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA TO ASSIST SYRIA IN CASE OF EXTERNAL ATTACK
Paris ib 13:54 GMT September 6, 2013
Over to Bernanke
Reply
Now I'd like to see Bernanke get out of this mess.
HK Kevin 13:53 GMT September 6, 2013
Any News
Reply
YEN and CHF set stronger. Any news on the Gulf?
Singapore Td 13:51 GMT September 6, 2013
United States-Canada
Taper means 7% trigger button is more like an utopia. Whereas if they just let it be like this for a few more months then they will get no-qe sooner. Why try fixing if it ain't broken.
london red 13:46 GMT September 6, 2013
United States-Canada
yes thats what i was trying to relay. fed has said that if unemp gets to 7% they want to be done with qe completely
HK RF@ 13:38 GMT September 6, 2013
cad/jpy and aud/jpy
hyderabad krishna
Sorry for not commenting your question.
Really don't have a software doing the work for me, but I do all manually.
So can't attend to other pairs.
Now you understand:)
Singapore Td 13:36 GMT September 6, 2013
United States-Canada
Red, i think taper means no qe in the end. If they want no qe that means tapering the taper until we hit 7 then no qe altogether.
HK Kevin 13:34 GMT September 6, 2013
AUD/NZD
HK RF@ 13:21 GMT, would u expect a rebound from 1.1450 back to 1.1550-1.16 level. I close the short from 1.1630 too soon at ~1.1560.
HK RF@ 13:31 GMT September 6, 2013
NZD
Reply
Residual momentum can carry it tonight up to 0.8035
HK RF@ 13:21 GMT September 6, 2013
AUD/NZD
Reply
Probably 1.1450 by next week
london red 13:19 GMT September 6, 2013
United States-Canada
paris, feds bar for no qe is 7%. no qe not taper
london red 13:05 GMT September 6, 2013
United States-Canada
euro 13100 barrier comes off in an hour, chances are it gets knocked off before then but i would expect a rally after that. taper is still going to happen, but the taper will be tapered. think low should be no less than 13070/75.
Paris ib 13:05 GMT September 6, 2013
United States-Canada
"U.S. monthly jobs growth has been about dead flat at 100-200K a month for three years".... so today adds nothing new. Taper is on. Smallish maybe, but on.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:59 GMT September 6, 2013
United States-Canada
For all you bond (forex) traders out there. U.S. 10-yr last 2.88% -10bps on the day. Pre-data we saw 2.95%.
As we indicated earlier, the RISK was on the downside with the media (CNBC) hyping a strong payrolls data once again and the markets buying the hype. Bottom-line, look at the graph, U.S. monthly jobs growth has been about dead flat at 100-200K a month for three years. I don't see these data precluding a very modest taper by the FED in a week and a half, but nothing major.
Singapore Td 12:57 GMT September 6, 2013
Aud
Reply
Expecting Rudd to be defeated badly and aud to fly towards 0.95
HK RF@ 12:54 GMT September 6, 2013
Sell gold/buy milk
Per my suggestion 1.1500 was hit and even below.
NZD/USD has still a residual momentum for tonight.
The situation point to 81.60 target for next week.
Mtl JP 12:54 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
red that only betrays your gender lol
london red 12:54 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
looks like downside markers for usd are set euro 13180 yen 98.80. moves thru those points point to next targets, while failure/false break suggests we will fill gaps back to pre nfp.
london red 12:49 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
i would just add that worth watching 200 week ma for cable situated around 15740 (the 100 week is right about at the fibo mentioned earlier)
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:49 GMT September 6, 2013
United States-Canada
Canada jobs. Data much stronger than predicted.
Paris ib 12:48 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
The revisions were terrible:
Prior reading 162K now revised to 104K
Private payrolls 152K vs 180K expected
Prior private payrolls was 161K now revised to 127K
Two-month net payrolls revision -74K
Participation rate 63.2% vs 63.4% exp
Manufacturing payrolls 14K vs 5K exp
Avg hourly earnings 2.2% vs +2.1% y/y exp
Overall not a good result. Probably not enough to stop a taper but the chances of a BIG taper are minimal.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:47 GMT September 6, 2013
United States-Canada
Monthly jobs U.S. weaker than expected only after prior revisions. Does not kill chances for tapering but does not help that scenario.
Click on chart for more than 10-yr history
Direct links to primary data sources
london red 12:47 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
sorry JP that should be 1.70 1.35. cant do two things at once clearly!
Paris ib 12:45 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
On the 10 year Treasury we're back to where we were on the 4th of September. So yesterday was a fake out. Big boys having fun out there?
Mtl JP 12:45 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
it is close enough to be subject to Jubbs
london red 12:44 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
JP, 38.2 of 2.11 1.35 just above there at 15685 or thereabouts
dc CB 12:41 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
dc CB 19:33 GMT September 5, 2013
Fixed Income: Reply
in desperate need of a Big Red Candle
LMAO
Mtl JP 12:40 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
red yr take on gbp 1.5667 plz - decent res ?
Mtl JP 12:29 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
there is a 50% fibo on euro 1.31
hyderabad krishna 12:25 GMT September 6, 2013
cad/jpy and aud/jpy
Reply
HK RF: your comments on cad/jpy and aud/jpy PLZ.....
Mtl JP 12:19 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
fwiw estimate for 180K
polled pundits range: 79k - 220K
Livingston nh 12:10 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
For the Fed the NFP is Y/Y trend important not monthly - this trend based approach led to QE - the current trend (and levels) last year would not have required add'l easing hence the expected/predicted demise (i.e., TAPER) //keep in mind the NFP Birth/death Plug factor is smaller in the second half of the year // watch the unemployment RATE
Under 150k // unchanged 7.4% -- sell USD buy 10 yr
Rate below 7.3% and /or +210k buy USD
London Misha 12:04 GMT September 6, 2013
Observations
Reply
EURUSD - Breaks down through Fib combo 1.3184-86. Fib 1.3149, Long MA & Medium MA combo, all now resistance. Forms Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart!
USDJPY - 4th White Soldier & 1st close over key 50% Fib 2007-11 move @ 99.84. However, possible Key Reversal today, all on Daily Chart!
GBPUSD - Fails @ 2nd attempt to close over 50% Fib of 2009-10 move @ 1.5636. Possible Tweezer Top, all on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - Up off Long MA thru multiple Fib resistance levels to halt @ 50% Fib of 2012 move at 0.9450, all on Daily Chart.
EURGBP - Rejects Bullish Hammer & closes (just) below %0% Fib 2011-12 move @ 0.8418 & tests 61.8% Fib 2012-13 move @0.8154, all on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Rejects Upper Tine of recent SP with possible Bearish Tweezer Pattern on Daily Chart.
USDINR - Rejects possible Bullish Hammer & we have 3rd Black Crow from possible Double Top on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - Bearish Doji after Bearish Engulfing Pattern & almost a Key Reversal Down. Holds at recent 38.2% Fib @ 10.1493, all on Daily Chart.
USDBRL - Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart & 1st close below recent 50% Fib @ 2.3309!
Mtl JP 12:01 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
re JP 11:53 - on 2nd thought, allow me change that:
would someone with time-preferential peak at the number please ...
london red 12:00 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
this is the last and most important print pre fomc. it will either confirm taper or set back taper by a month, but taper will happen. so that needs to be kept in mind. it is no longer will they wont they, its when. so it will need a print of about 100-120 to get euro to test 13220. a slightly sub estimate print may see averages briefly taken but 13180 to be sold. a 200 plus print sees 13017 visited and yen to 10050/80. i cannot see more than a figure rally on a sub par number given market long euro and so no real stops to take on upside.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 11:58 GMT September 6, 2013
United States-Canada
Reply
HEADS-UP: Data (top of forum)
EURUSD= 1.3120
GBPUSD= 1.5588
USDJPY= 99.70
AUDUSD= 0.9164
USDCAD= 1.0448
US 10-yr= 2.95%
DE 10-yr= 2.00%
GB 10-yr= 2.96%
(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)
Direct links to primary data sources
Mtl JP 11:53 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
assuming no-one that is not supposed has time-preferential peak at the number , how about some trade ideas on it "is all dependent on a decent NFP print today"
< ___ K = sell usd
> ___ K = buy usd
I am divided between 180k and 160k as the bias setting print
Sakarya 11:44 GMT September 6, 2013
NZD/USD
AUDUSD
Entry: Hiii Target: Stop:
Hii RF@ AUDUSD .9220? today? what is your expectations ? Thnx
HK RF@ 11:39 GMT September 6, 2013
NZD/USD
Reply
Possibly will top at the start of next week.
Temporary sale target at 0.7550 reached.
Possibly may have some more gains tonight, but with higher risks.
Expect(no guarantee) 0.8160 next week.
Paris ib 11:30 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
Right John, so more or less what I'm thinking. Worse case scenario for USD n markets: low ball results n bonds fail to rally. We're all bond market traders these days. ;-)
Mtl JP 11:12 GMT September 6, 2013
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CA/US Employment
the "estimates for a NFP gain of 180K" is 20K short of minimum necessary job creation to affect the 7.4% unemployment downwards which in itself is Ben's reference.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 10:59 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
ib- my guess was a 10-15bln taper. The last thing Bernanke would ever want to do is reverse any of the Feds initial taper.
of course, this is all dependent on a decent NFP print today.
Paris ib 10:27 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
When bubbles are created and then pop all sorts of nasty things can follow and usually do.
london red 10:24 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
euro fibo at 13100 13073 13017. topside 13184 but 100 and 200 day ma in way first.
london red 10:22 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
long end in uk off badly at 3% but take the 2 year and it still at around level of current rates. is that really so bad.
Paris ib 10:21 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
Markets hate uncertainty red. And that's a big fat question mark hanging over it right now.
Paris ib 10:20 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
Actually correction: all the primary bond markets except Japan have sold off this year and the markets taking the biggest hits are the UK and the US. Germany hasn't done all that badly and the peripherals (previously oversold) have seen yields fall sharply, which is supporting economic growth (such as it is). The biggest bond market pop seems to be in the U.S. which will also see 'tapering' sooner or later. I wouldn't like to be Bernanke right now.
london red 10:20 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
by end of january we will know by when we will be done (qe). and that will be march 2013.
Paris ib 10:15 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
The trouble is red that until we kick this process off the market will be subject to all sorts of wild speculation about how much, and how long the process will take and what kind of market reaction we will get. That is not good for the market at all.
london red 10:13 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
taking just yesterdays ism, you are looking at 4% growth. of course no one is really suggesting that will be the case, but the numbers are strong enough to taper. only a sub 100k nfp can cause the fomc to wait until october. i would say taper is a done deal. the only reason it has taken so long to come off is the feds fear of tanking stocks and thus confidence. really, money should only be printed when gdp is less than zero. so whatever the figure tomorrow, as long as its above 100k, the fed is going to taper.
Paris ib 10:03 GMT September 6, 2013
Germany
German economic slowdown underway. Two reasons: end of ultra low interest rates as it loses its safe haven status. (Draghi mentioned this yesterday.) And slowdown in China, one of its main export markets. It's nice when you receive a flood of other people's money, less nice when it reverses.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 10:02 GMT September 6, 2013
Germany
German output data much weaker than expected.
Paris ib 10:00 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
John I was under the impression that they wanted to kick off with some tapering regardless. So what are we talking in that case 10 billion a month less? 20? It seems a bit of a muddled issue. They either start soonish or it risks that Bernanke won't even start off the process before his term is up. I don't think they want to do that. So what are we looking at? The difference between a large tapering amount (40 billion? - I find that unlikely) and a small amount. Personally I'm expecting between 10 and 20 to kick things off and I don't think it's the main determinant of bond yields. The age of mega low bond yields is over (except it seems in Japan). All bond markets have sold off at the long end since the start of the year. The ultimate bubble could well turn out to be the bond market and the bubble has popped. I'm not sure the FED can do anything about that.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:55 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
ib- the hysteria is mostly in the press. The fact is that the cut in spending forced by the sequester has already reduced the budget deficit and thus the need for asset purchases on the current scale.
Its my opinion that Bernanke and most of the board are looking for an excuse to "taper". The September FOMC already has a press conference scheduled afterwards so it would be the most obvious time to taper so Bernanke can explain the decision afterwards. If the Fed cuts back asset purchases by a modest amount after the upcoming meeting, the earth will not stop spinning. Then the Fed can observe what happens. As you indicate, the bond markets have already started to price to a more "normal" monetary policy (10-yr yield ~ 3.0%).
My only question is how the Fed would react to a weak number, say below 150K. I think above 150K, they do a token tapering.
HK RF@ 09:51 GMT September 6, 2013
CONFIRMED
Reply
HK RF@ 07:07 GMT September 6, 2013
NZD/USD Take profit at 0.7955, for a Ret.: Reply
/
Paris ib 09:39 GMT September 6, 2013
Non Farm Payrolls
Reply
It's sort of hilarious but nevertheless the market is fixated on NFP, a dated, lagging indicator. So what's the deal? A strong number and the market will assume tough tapering in September? Which will lead to what? A sell off in bonds (already happened yesterday) and stocks (U.S. was flat yesterday after Europe rallied) and a stronger/weaker USD? The idea seems to be if the number is high and bonds and stocks sell off then you buy USD. At least against the EURO but probably not against the JPY..... Vice, versa a weak number means a stronger bond market, a rally in stocks and??? It would seem more important to know how the market is sitting right now ONLY because all we will get is knee-jerk reactions and stops triggered.
I'm finding the houpla annoying given that coming up we have a decision on Syria from the U.S., the FOMC meeting on the 17th.... but it does look like the market is setting itself up for something.
HK RF@ 09:28 GMT September 6, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
The psychology of mass paranoia is leading to all kinds of conspiracy theories about almost anything.
This is the reason you can find on the net many american nuts sites bringing up stories which have no basis in reality.
Much worse if something true in line appears(Snowden case), the paranoia will get compounded, and is leading to logical impairment(Obama,congress on Syrian gas poisoning).
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:05 GMT September 6, 2013
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CA/US Employment
Reply
- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: CA/US Employment
- The
street has set up for a strong U.S. August payroll report On
Thursday the
ADP Private Jobs estimate came in as expected and showed a gain of 176K
for August. The outcome supports estimates for a NFP gain of
180K. Service PMI data and Weekly Jobless data
reinforces view U.S. economy improves.
- Looking at forex and fixed
income markets, it is clear that traders have set up for a strong U.S.
August employment report Thus the RISK is now for a
disappointment.
- The Syrian situation continues
to fester as the U.S, continues to debate military measures.
Republican and Democrat leadership have endorsed action.
- Today is another Jewish
holiday, which could limit dealer participation. On
Saturday Australia holds national elections.
- For additional key items and
more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic
Calendar and see the FOREX FORUM
for latest key data and charts as they are released.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3299
|
JGB
0.80% +2bp
|
Asia
Close Mixed
|
USDJPY
98.11
|
Bund
2.02% -2bp
|
Europe
Mixed
|
EURJPY
130.47
|
U.S.
2.97% -1bp
|
North
America: Mixed
|
GVI Forex Blog 09:04 GMT September 6, 2013
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CA/US Employment
The street has set up for a strong U.S. August payroll report On Thursday the ADP Private Jobs estimate came in as expected and showed a gain of 176K for August. The outcome supports estimates for a NFP gain of 180K. Service PMI data and Weekly Jobless data reinforces view U.S. economy improves.
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CA/US Employment
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:51 GMT September 6, 2013
United Kingdom
Errors to our UK output data corrected. GBP falls on trade and output reports.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:42 GMT September 6, 2013
Switzerland
EARLIER: Swiss AUGUST CPI- 0.0% y/y. Two months in a row.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:37 GMT September 6, 2013
United Kingdom
-- ALERT --
UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output
JULY 2013
Ind mm: 0.0% vs. +0.2% exp. vs. +1.10% (r 1.3%) prev.
Ind yy: -1.6% vs. -1.70% exp. vs. +1.20% (r 1.4%) prev.
Mfg mm: +0.20% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. 1.90% (r 2.00%) prev.
Mfg yy: -0.70% vs. -0.70% exp. vs. +2.00% (r 2.10%) prev.
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Direct links to primary data sources
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:31 GMT September 6, 2013
United Kingdom
Reply
-- ALERT --
July 2013 U.K. Trade GBP (bn)
Total Trade: -9.98 vs. -8.200 exp. vs. -8.080 prev.
non-EU: -4.50 vs. -2.950 exp. vs. -2.650 prev.
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GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:29 GMT September 6, 2013
Switzerland
Reply
-- Earlier Data --
AUGUST Swiss CPI
mm: -0.1% vs. 0.00% exp. vs. -0.40% prev.
yy: 0.0% vs. 0.00% exp. vs. 0.00% prev.
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GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:18 GMT September 6, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply
Prices in prime fixed income markets are mixed early in Europe as ahead of the U.S. jobs report today. Peripherals prices are mixed.
Paris ib 07:27 GMT September 6, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
As a slow burn issue the 9 11 controversy has probably done more to eat away at confidence in the U.S.A. than anything else. The idea that elements within the U.S. government, the secret services or the U.S. military may have had a hand in the twin towers collapse has gone a long way to undermining confidence in the United States. Our whole economic system is based on trust and certainly the position of the USD as international reserve currency is based on trust. Undermine that trust and trouble follows. We're at a point now when no-one seems to believe anyone. It's not good.
Hong Kong AceTrader 06:34 GMT September 6, 2013
Sept 6: Daily Market Outlook on Majors EUR/USD
Reply
DAILY EUR/USD OUTLOOK - 1.3131
06 Sep 2013 02:13GMT
Despite y'day's selloff to a fresh 6-week low at
1.3110 (NY), intra-day rebound suggests initial con
solidation wud be seen b4 decline fm Aug's peak at
1.3453 resumes twd 1.306, 'loss of momentum' shud
keep price abv 1.3015 n yield correction later.
Exit prev. short n sell again on further recovery
as only abv 1.3173 may risk retrace. twd 1.3223/27.
STRATEGY : Exit short n sell at 1.3150
POSITION : Short at 1.3180
OBJECTIVE : 1.3070
STOP-LOSS : 1.3190
RES : 1.3173/1.3223/1.3255
SUP : 1.3110/1.3066/1.3015
HK RF@ 05:11 GMT September 6, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
911 hearings
I am afraid to say that Americans are suffering from a high level of paranoia emanating from their basic cultural trait of distrust in their governments(even keep guns in their houses to defend from bad Gov.).
It is therefore that circumstantial evidence is good for them as Prima Facie evidence(evidence sufficient to prove a particular proposition or fact).
This is the attitude of Obama (and associates) regarding the recent Syrian event, and keeping unconvicted prisoners in Guantanamo.
A direct offspring and post culture of the lynching method.
Possibly even neuro-medicines can't treat those psychiatric mental disturbances emanating from cultural traits.
And God help America::((
Syd 04:36 GMT September 6, 2013
- Source TradeTheNews.com
Reply
(US) As many as 6 of the 12 voting members of the Fed's FOMC committee could leave in 2014 - Washington Post- Notes 2014 could be the biggest transition year at the Fed since before the recession, as Chairman Bernanke's is term is also due to end in Jan. - Fed Gov Powell's term is due to end in Jan and Cleveland Fed Pres. Pianalto is due to retire in early 2014. - Source TradeTheNews.com
Chennai AMI 04:05 GMT September 6, 2013
Lead Ind Julp
Reply
Hi John,
The Consensus for "Lead Ind Julp" should be 107.90 not 17.9
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:24 GMT September 6, 2013
Sept 6 : Euro tanks to a fresh 7-week low on ECB Draghi's dovish comments
Reply
Market Review - 05/09/2013 22:23GMT
Euro tanks to a fresh 7-week low on ECB Draghi's dovish comments
The single currency dropped sharply to a fresh 7-week low on Thursday as the European Central Bank President Draghi said the bank will keep its present rates or lower the levels for extended period.
Earlier in Asia, despite euro's intra-day fall from Wednesday's top at 1.3218 to 1.3164, cross buying of euro versus yen lifted the pair above 1.3218 to 1.3223 in New York morning, however, the single currency then fell sharply when ECB President Draghi said 'rates at present or lower levels for extended period.' Price eventually hit a 7-week low at 1.3110 in New York morning before stabilising.
ECB's Draghi said in the press conference after the central bank kept interest rate at 0.5% that 'underlying price pressures in Eurozone expected to remain subdued; recent confidence indicators confirm expectation of gradual improvement in economy; ECB monetary policy stance is geared toward maintaining degree of monetary accommodation; monetary policy stance will remain accommodative for as long as necessary; governing council expects ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for extended period; inflation outlook unchanged in medium term; repayments of long-term loans reflect improvement in financial market conditions; expect gradual recovery in euro zone.'
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback rose briefly to 99.98 at Asian midday, cross buying of yen versus euro pressured the pair to 99.57 before rising to 100.12 in European morning. Later, despite dollar's retreat to 99.66 in New York morning, release of better-than-expected U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI and factory orders (58.6 and -2.4%, versus the forecast of 55.2 and -3.3%) pushed the pair higher to a fresh 6-week top at 100.20 in New York afternoon.
Although the British pound retreated from Wednesday's top at 1.5648 to 1.5591 in European morning, the pair pierced through 1.5648 to a 2-week top at 1.5667 after the Bank of England announced to keep interest rate and asset purchases unchanged at 0.5% and 375 billion sterling as expected. However, cable fell sharply in tandem with euro in New York morning due to the steep fall in eur/usd and eventually hit session low at 1.5573 before recovering in U.S. afternoon.
In other news, BOJ kept monetary policy steady by unanimous vote, pledged to increase monetary base at annual pace of 60-70 trillion yen and revised up economic assessment in September. Fed's Kocherlakota said 'low rates at which U.S. can borrow shows confidence in ability of government to resolve fiscal issues; expect unemployment to remain well above 5.2%-6% for a number of years; expect inflation, as measured by %, to stay well below 2% for some time; Fed should communicate more effectively; markets reacted to tapering talks in a way I did not expect; a reduction in Fed's bond buying may not mean as much as people might think.''
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan leading indicator, Germany trade balance, current account, import export, industrial production, France trade balance, consumer confidence, Swiss CPI, industrial production, U.K. industrial production, manufacturing production, trade balance, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earning, Canada unemployment rate, PMI.
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