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Forex Forum Archive for 09/07/2013
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Mtl JP 21:53 GMT September 7, 2013
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 20:26 GMT September 7, 2013
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 20:24 GMT September 7, 2013
Whew! quite a week. The penultimate event of the week was the August U.S. employment report on Friday. We have lost track of the number of times in the last five years or so that the market has gotten into a frenzy ahead of time about a stronger than expected non-farm payroll number only to have those hopes dashed. Well it happened once again. The 169K gain in jobs was virtually dead on the 180K market consensus forecast, however, downward revisions to June and July data undermined confidence in the data. The major focus going into the data was whether they would be strong enough to trigger the announcement of a tapering of Fed asset purchases on September 18.
I feel Bernanke and most of the Fed Board have been looking forany chance to "taper"asset purchases and these data could still justify a token tapering. We are convinced that the majority opinion on the Board is that the time has come to draw this program to a close. The September FOMC already has a press conference scheduled so it would be the ideal meeting to taper so Bernanke can explain the decision afterwards. Bernanke is a short-timer so his chance to start to end the program are fast narrowing. Furthermore, bond markets have already priced in an early start to a phasing out of the Fed asset purchase program.
The week is not very full of major items, although it does start off on Saturday (September 7) with national elections in Australia. Some key Chinese data are due early in the week. Friday then features a top-tier piece of U.S. data in the form of retail sales data.For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our href="http://www.global-view.com/forex-trading-tools/weekly.html">Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum as key items are released.
-- John M. Bland, www.global-view.com