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Forex Forum Archive for 09/18/2013

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Melbourne Qindex 23:58 GMT September 18, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:





EUR/USD : The weekly cycle charts suggest that after the market accumulate enough energy at 1.3531 - 1.3562, it will charge ahead and tackle the range at 1.3602 - 1.3646.


Qindex.com

Quantum Index Analysis

dc CB 23:41 GMT September 18, 2013
What's it really all about Alfie?
Reply   


Ben remembers the lessons of Hank "shorts killer" Paulson.

Near-Record Treasury Shorts Pummeled By Bernanke Announcement

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 21:39 GMT September 18, 2013
Fed shocker: No taper BOE tone hawkish. Housing disappoints
Reply   

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS:   CH- SNB Decision, GB- Retail Sales, US- Current Account, Weekly Jobless. Philly Fed, 
    Existing Homes Sales

  • Financial markets were shocked by the Fed policy decision  not to start to reduce its asset purchases ($85 bln) at what seemed to be an ideal opportunity for such a move. The decision raises questions about the confidence of  the Fed in  the economy. USD tumbles, stocks soar and bond yields fall.

  • There is a press report indicating a top administration official said that Janet Yellen is now the top candidate for Bernanke's job and could get the nomination as early as next week barring  an unexpected development. We think she would be a safe appointment, but we will see.

  • Bank of England policy board minutes from two weeks ago saw unanimous votes to keep interest rates steady and the size of asset purchases unchanged. Comments about the economy leaned to the hawkish side. The GBP has gained on the statement. See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.

  • U.S. Housing starts came in below expectations but are not falling out of bed, yet, The full impact of rising long term rates has yet to have been felt.

  • Existing Home Sales will be released on Thursday. Thursday also features U.K. CPI data. On Friday Canadian CPI data are released. On Sunday Germany will hold what looks to be closely contested national elections.

  • For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
EURUSD 1.3289
JGB 0.71% -1bp
Asia Close Mixed
USDJPY 98.97
Bund 2.00% -1bp
Europe  Mixed
EURJPY 131.53
U.S. 2.71% -145 bp
North America: Higher

GVI Forex Blog 21:37 GMT September 18, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CH- SNB Decision, GB- Retail Sales, US- Current Account, Weekly Jobless. Philly Fed, Existing Homes Sales Financial markets were shocked by the Fed policy decision not to start to reduce its asset purchases ($85 bln) at what seemed to be an ideal opportunity for such a move. The decision raises questions about the confidence of the Fed in the economy. USD tumbles, stocks soar and bond yields fall.

Fed shocker: No taper BOE tone hawkish. Housing disappoints

dc CB 20:52 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

this is also OpEx week...QuadWitching when futures contracts also expire.

dc CB 20:48 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

NKD futures are up 315pts 14810

GVI Forex Blog 20:43 GMT September 18, 2013 Reply   
The Federal Reserve refrained from tapering its QE program - a major surprise for the market.

NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

tokyo ginko 20:42 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

nk targets 15075/15125 levels ST

tokyo ginko 20:40 GMT September 18, 2013
could not resists....
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

short eur/usd 1.3542

Paris ib 20:33 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

Correction below 98.... things have moved on a bit. ;-)

Paris ib 20:32 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

CB.... it will be interesting to see how the Nikkei reacts. Two conflicting impulses: USD/JPY below 99 - the FED stalls.

Amman wfakhoury 20:31 GMT September 18, 2013
GBPUSD 16137 reached
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 19:01 GMT September 18, 2013
GBPUSD 16137: Reply
16137 confirmed will be reached


dc CB 20:30 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

it will be interesting to see if they come and try to smack gold and silver during the Asian markets. Last night they smacked it hard on the Japan opening.

HK [email protected] 20:29 GMT September 18, 2013
The power of words:) Please respect Mr. Ben words power:::)))
Reply   


Kal, do you remember our discussion where you downplayed the statement of the FED. That it is all by Tech., that the FED means nothing for you!!!

Saar KaL 13:36 GMT September 18, 2013 - My Profile
KaL's Trend and Level: Reply
RF again and again
Feds...FBI
CIA....whatever...Mean nothing to me
I am a Technical trader (Nothing Else)
So please...I do not speak that Talk

Now you got Levels and time frame please?

Entry Exit...time
That is it RF.

HK [email protected] 13:51 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level: Reply


KAL

And what if the FED will decide not to decide?

One thing I can agree with you, and that at present the downward momentum in gold is not that strong, but the extent of the recoil(if indeed) upward I will not guess now.

Can only say that if today close will be above 1315, one may expect and extended rally.
...................................................................................

And indeed they decided not to decide, and here is the reaction.
From now on please respect Mr. Ben, that because of him doing nothing I made a windfall profit:)))

Paris ib 20:24 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

The insanity continues....

Monetary Base U.S.

dc CB 20:20 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

With the Taper now off the table, and with the next earliest probable discussion of a Taper at the December FOMC meeting if then even,................

it is worth refreshing what Bernanke Asset Management's year end stock market target is.

As a reminder, back in April we highlighted that in a world of central planning the only relevant thing to risk assets is the size of the Fed's balance sheet, and since there will be no change in the rate of ascent, we can once again repost what we showed nearly 6 months ago as to where the Fed believes the fair value of the S&P500 should be. The answer: 1,950 or bust.

Bernanke's S&P500 Year End Price Target: 1,950

Paris ib 20:04 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

red I'm with you on that one. Once the election is out of the way, not that I'm thinking it will change much either way, we will be able to reassess where we are. I just hope that this 'taper' phenomenon doesn't take over the market. I don't think I want to wait for every FOMC meeting in the same way as we all waited for this one. So much for 'forward guidance'. The FED's forward guidance: we haven't got a clue, we're just reacting to events. They tried to act like grown ups, it's didn't work out. That really is a bad look IMVHO.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 20:02 GMT September 18, 2013
Chart Points

many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


london red 19:55 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

only looking as far as the election. after that we have the 2013 high which is a possibility if data supports.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:48 GMT September 18, 2013
Chart Points
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Israel Dil 19:42 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

Buy YELLOW JERSEY CONTEST
Entry: Target: Stop:

can't imagine the real USD super bull move to start before October


MM


london red 19:33 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

i havent sat down to doing projections yet now following the full retracement to 13450 but think 1.36/1.37 is too far fetched. think 13550 might be as good as we get. not a great deal of data to rock boat pre weekend so impetus needs to come from elsewhere, the election.

Paris ib 19:33 GMT September 18, 2013
The FED backs down
Reply   
China is one of the largest providers of capital to the U.S. bond market. The Chinese warned this week about the FED being too aggressive with tapering. The FED backed down. Taper? What taper? A nice segue to the Syrian crisis. Russia sends in the battle ships and Obama backs down. Independent in regards to policy decisions.... my a.ss.

Israel Dil 19:29 GMT September 18, 2013
German gold in USA, elections
Reply   
Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

what Germans will do when they will realize there is not their gold in USA anymore?

1- start a war vs. USA
2- buy gold starting at $1450 and UP UP UP

to dk 19:29 GMT September 18, 2013
FED



..

Israel Dil 19:24 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

nice input red

1.38 before German elections ?

Belgrade TD 19:21 GMT September 18, 2013
and the winner is...
Reply   


the winner is silver :) ... today, it is the most profitable - long silver ...

london red 19:19 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

best of gains have now been seen as euro is trading half a figure above daily upper bolli. we can trade above the bolli for some days, but its very rare so risks outway rewards. heading into weekend, will be worth selling blips as market will not go into german election weekend at a high. think there will be at least profit taking of some kind.
yen. rallying nikkei tonight may give usd legs vs yen. lower trend line comes in at 97 and a half, would expect it to hold if tested. on the way down a useful fibo at 97.67.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:17 GMT September 18, 2013
Fixed Income

10-yr yields continue to tumble last 2.708% -14.5bp

Sydney ACC 19:17 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

The FOMC claimed in their statement fiscal policy is restraining growth yet there has been little or no commentary given with regard to this matter.
How long will the Fed continue to believe that it can transform the US economy by its endeavours to keep interest rates as low as possible without Congress and the Administration doing their bit. Unless everyone pulls together then the economy isn't going to improve to the desired level.

Israel Dil 19:13 GMT September 18, 2013
IRAN

John

Iran, Syria, Turkey >>> TURKISH LIRA

political ?

Amman wfakhoury 19:13 GMT September 18, 2013
GBPUSD 15970
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 19:01 GMT September 18, 2013
GBPUSD 16137: Reply
16137 confirmed will be reached
------------------------------
also we have 15970 confirmed level
so it is better to sell and add sell when reached 16137


Israel Dil 19:11 GMT September 18, 2013
----- present king currency -----
Reply   



TURKISH LIRA

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:11 GMT September 18, 2013
IRAN

Dil- Please use the Political Forum for political discussions.
thank you

Amman wfakhoury 19:01 GMT September 18, 2013
GBPUSD 16137
Reply   
16137 confirmed will be reached

Israel Dil 19:00 GMT September 18, 2013
IRAN
Reply   
Iran's president "we will never develop nuclear weapons"

why don't to believe him?

dc CB 18:58 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

Via Nanex,

Market reaction to the FOMC news was instant. Within a thousandth of a second, the move was already over. What any human saw was like reading yesterdays newspaper.

1. SPY Showing Trades color coded by exchange. This is 150 milliseconds of time.

The Machines Win: Within Milliseconds, The Move Was Over

dc CB 18:53 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

Beginning 3 minutes before the release of the FOMC Statement, gold spot and futures prices began to rise notably. We noted this accordingly.

zerohedge @zerohedge

Someone leak FOMC to gold?
1:59 PM - 18 Sep 2013

Who Leaked The FOMC Statement To Gold Traders?

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 18:51 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

USD still getting hammered...

tokyo ginko 18:45 GMT September 18, 2013
relief rally

P-T all snp 1722...

Amman wfakhoury 18:44 GMT September 18, 2013
EURUSD 100 pips move
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 19:57 GMT September 17, 2013
EURUSD 100 pips move: Reply
-------------------------------------
Consolidates between 13343 and 13362 ....breaking this area
100 pips move is coming.
Mostly we are heading up unless price breaks down 13343 and keeps below it.
------------------
Market followed the signal



GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 18:44 GMT September 18, 2013
Federal Reserve Statement
Reply   
Full Policy Statement

Press Release

dc CB 18:42 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

(sarc on) and No one knew what was going to happen(sarc off)

like those selling the crap out of Gold/Silver/Oil

11 Minutes And 652 Words Later, Hilsenrath Explains Why Bernanke Shocked Everyone

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 18:40 GMT September 18, 2013
Fixed Income

Prices in prime fixed income markets were lower late in Europe ahead of the Fed decision. Since then U.S, bond yields have tumbled. Peripherals prices were mixed.


Israel Dil 18:40 GMT September 18, 2013
PURK
Reply   
PURK

are you around?

Israel Dil 18:36 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

dearest Paris IB

you are still the funniest of all !

FED makes mistakes and admits, how much that costs them?
FED makes mistakes (admits or not), how much it costs you?

so, buy USD soon and wear almost nothing, spend time in Tahiti the coming winter, YES!

Paris ib 18:30 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

It looks to me like the FED mis-stepped here. They are admitting that U.S. growth is weaker than they hoped, ie. that QE hasn't worked and that bond markets make monetary policy and all they can hope to do is add stabilizers, trying to offset the market moves by their feeble QE policy. A small taper would have gone down well and made them look responsible and more or less in control. It would have matched their forward guidance. Now they look like they are reacting (late) to events in financial markets. It's not a good look.

Israel Dil 18:29 GMT September 18, 2013
Daily TA trade

TD

1.3535 will print, I hope this helps :-))



GVI Forex Blog 18:27 GMT September 18, 2013 Reply   
September 18, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, September 19. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CH- SNB Decision, GB- Retail Sales, US- Current Account, Weekly Jobless. Philly Fed, Existing Homes Sales

GVI Forex Data Outlook for September 19, 2013

Belgrade TD 18:24 GMT September 18, 2013
Daily TA trade

Sold EUR/USD ~ 1.346 ... Sold Sp500 (ES) ~ 1714 ... T/S later, possible spike ...

Paris ib 18:24 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

The bond market is not loving this as much as it could. 30 year Treasuries at 3.8% is not great. 10 years holding at 2.75%, down 9 basis points. Need to see if we can have follow on with this. The Germans will go the election with a record on the DAX, which will probably help Merkel. Now we see what Bernanke has to say about this. Back to QE infinity? If that's the case then the big risk is the USD..... which is not necessarily going to go down well in the big wide world.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 18:23 GMT September 18, 2013
Calendar
Reply   


September 18, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, September 19. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CH- SNB Decision, GB- Retail Sales, US- Current Account, Weekly Jobless. Philly Fed, Existing Homes Sales

  • Far East: JP- Trade, Lead Indicators
  • Europe: CH- SNB Decision, GB- Retail Sales, CBI Industrial Output
  • North America: US- Current Account, Weekly Jobless. Philly Fed, Existing Homes Sales. Leading Indicators, Natural Gas


  • Direct links to primary data sources


Lahore FM 18:23 GMT September 18, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Buy USDCAD
Entry: 1.0247 Target: Stop: 1.0140

long here too for 1000 pips.

Israel Dil 18:20 GMT September 18, 2013
eurusd


agreed, many enjoy the max 3% moves and very-very few cash the 30% dunks. so soon buying euros will be the single song of the masses and then ?

1.38 ... 1.43 ???

LOL

Lahore FM 18:15 GMT September 18, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3450 Target: 1.29 Stop: 1.3535

short eurusd.

also re long usdchf 0.9175.earlier longs topped for minus 150 pips.stop for usdchf 0.9120

Tallinn viies 18:11 GMT September 18, 2013
eurusd
Reply   
all the small fishes were right. everybody happy about higher euro. Im just wondering who is not happy right now? who is paying the bills

london red 18:09 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

yen 98 line in line in sand stops under

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 18:02 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

Shocker:
10-yr 2.759%

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 18:01 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

-- ALERT --
U.S. Fed Policy Decision
Rates: Unchanged
Monthly Asset Purchases UNCHANGED



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 17:58 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

streaming video starts @ 2:30 EDT

Bernanke Press Conference

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 17:51 GMT September 18, 2013
FED

HEADS-UP: Data (top of forum)
EURUSD= 1.3370
GBPUSD= 1.5967
USDJPY= 98.86
AUDUSD= 0.9370
USDCAD= 1.0296

US 10-yr= 2.86%
DE 10-yr= 2.00%
GB 10-yr= 3.00%

(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)

Direct links to primary data sources

london red 17:42 GMT September 18, 2013
eurusd

13450 is what the median expectation is as far as a flash post announcement is concerned and talk has been all week of stops above there, so there is a good chance that if the euro begins to climb after the announcement, it will run those stops. this could be on a taper of less than 10bn. following this, all eyes on press conference where it could retrace and trade to lows depending on what is said.
that is one scenario, there are many more. but the odds are on a dovish fed and a smaller than expected taper as the fed doesnt want to disrupt the market and will seek its acceptance. however once on the road to taper, they are going to run more and more of it off and that will strength the dollar overall on a 6 month horizon. which currencies suffer and which don't very much depends on the risk profile and standing of each particular currency.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 17:39 GMT September 18, 2013
FED
Reply   
Washington Post: Yellen Most Likely to Get Fed Chairmanship, Official Says- Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen is the leading candidate to be President Obama's nominee to lead the Fed as chairman, a White House official said Wednesday. Barring any unexpected development, that likely means that Yellen will get the nomination, perhaps as soon as next week.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:26 GMT September 18, 2013
eurusd

Tallinn viies 14:19 GMT September 18, 2013 - good post, tks

Beckenham SFH 16:47 GMT September 18, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Yes I make you right FM..I am all square until the announcement

Lahore FM 16:40 GMT September 18, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

today's FOMC is different from many before as there is going to announcement of a new phase in fed actions.Any surprise to a stronger taper can see eurusd down as much as 1.3180 to begin with imho.

Saar KaL 16:33 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

NDX Close friday
3,249.5847 3,210.7066

Saar KaL 16:21 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Gold
Next day's session PI
Bye Bye Gold....Hello Cable

1,299.4554 1,268.4556

Saar KaL 16:16 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Cable Until Next day
1.6058 1.5929

Next day's session
1.6105 1.5976

I am Long and staying

Saar KaL 16:08 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

EURUSD
Close Friday
PI Range
1.3487 1.3379

GVI Forex 15:47 GMT September 18, 2013
Global Markets News
Reply   
The FOMC's big moment comes later this afternoon, with the decision at 14:00ET and Chairman Bernanke's press conference at 14:30ET.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Focus on Congress as Taper Seen as Inevitable, Impact Mild

ed kw 14:32 GMT September 18, 2013
United States

more steam run fed

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:30 GMT September 18, 2013
United States

-- ALERT --
Crude Oil: -4.400 vs. -1.000 exp vs. -0.219 prev.
Gasoline: -1.600 vs. +0.500 exp vs. +1.660 prev.
Distillates: -1.100 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +2.590 prev.
Cap/Util: 92.50% vs. n/a exp vs. 91.70% prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Belgrade TD 14:25 GMT September 18, 2013
United States

Fed will “do enough to retain credibility but nothing that might actually hurt the markets.” ... and when the Fed announces, they’ll try to claim that they told us so all along – regardless of what’s actually said ... so, place your bets :)

Saar KaL 14:23 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

NZDUSD Longs from .8200 to .8267
TGT 0.8302

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:20 GMT September 18, 2013
United States

10-yr now 2.885% +3.2bp, as yields creep up into the Fed decision in under 4 hours. Rising yields giving USD a lift.

Saar KaL 14:19 GMT September 18, 2013
eurusd

Viies
Very Nice Levels

Tallinn viies 14:19 GMT September 18, 2013
eurusd
Reply   
Reuters FX poll

* FOMC poll, EUR/USD at 19:00 GMT
* 41 market respondents including Dealing Room members
* High = 1.3610, Low = 1.3170, mid-point 1.3380
* Above 1.3400 = 48.8%, above 1.3350 58.5%
* Most popular call = 1.3450

Tallinn viies 14:16 GMT September 18, 2013
eurusd
Reply   
Reuters FX poll

* FOMC poll, EUR/USD at 19:00 GMT
* 41 market respondents including Dealing Room members
* High = 1.3610, Low = 1.3170, mid-point 1.3380
* Above 1.3400 = 48.8%, above 1.3350 58.5%
* Most popular call = 1.3450

Saar KaL 13:58 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

RF
I know Gold is over sold and expect 1390 or near 1400
No Problem
That does not mean anyone is in control of this 2 Tri USD Per day

2 Tri is 1/3 of US GDP

How could anyone have that Much? and willing to control the mkt
The Fed are Traders Just like us

Saar KaL 13:53 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

RF
That is an assumption that they are in control.
Fine...Nice Theory
Prove it

HK [email protected] 13:51 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level



KAL

And what if the FED will decide not to decide?

One thing I can agree with you, and that at present the downward momentum in gold is not that strong, but the extent of the recoil(if indeed) upward I will not guess now.

Can only say that if today close will be above 1315, one may expect and extended rally.

Saar KaL 13:44 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

RF
For you belive that FED...etc mean nothin here
Look up the archives When US Housing MKT ^HGX was around 300
During that time they said nothing Or BS

Now the same goes when it got near 80
They said nothing ANd / Or BS

why should consider anyone that is all talk...and again again is wrong

Please Look at the chart ^HGX
see the dive date and recovery date...then look the archives of FED at those dates.
You'll see

Saar KaL 13:36 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

RF again and again
Feds...FBI
CIA....whatever...Mean nothing to me
I am a Technical trader (Nothing Else)
So please...I do not speak that Talk

Now you got Levels and time frame please?

Entry Exit...time
That is it RF.

Saar KaL 13:33 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

RF/
You there?
Gold...please?

I am Buying a company with a symbol
Z (US MKT)

Now at 97
Should see 270 next year IMO

HK [email protected] 13:32 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level



KAL

I think that in this specific case, you need to see first the FED results meeting, and make a decision according to the market reaction.
The gold trend is down, but a wide range reaction to the data is possible.

Saar KaL 13:23 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

RF
OK...so what is your recommendation on Gold?
Level please
TIA

tokyo ginko 13:22 GMT September 18, 2013
oil
Reply   
crude data may send testing 102...

HK [email protected] 13:19 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level



Kal

Seems to me that your system has a problem in predicting gold direction.

Paris ib 12:50 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

And YES to Gold shorts. Won't be long till panic hits all the true believers. Fact: if it's not deliverable it's not Gold.

Can't wait to get this dumb FOMC out of the way. Meanwhile the good news for Treasuries is supposed to be the Chinese won't sell into a falling market. Let's not talk about the bad news then.

Saar KaL 12:40 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

IB/
Agree Thanks

Gold shorts today from 1308 to 1314
tgt next day 1282

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:40 GMT September 18, 2013
United States



Starts and Permits. Figures leveling out, but not falling out of bed.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:33 GMT September 18, 2013
United States

Housing data weaker than forecast, but not sharply softer.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:32 GMT September 18, 2013
United States

-- ALERT --
AUGUST 2013 U.S. House Starts & Permits (000)
Starts: 891 vs. 913 exp. vs. 896 (r 883) prev.
Permits: 918 vs. 950 exp. vs. 954 (r n/a )prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources


Paris ib 12:25 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

The AUD is benefitting fm short covering (more to come there) n mild post election enthusiasm. All the longer term negatives r still there: massive external debt to GDP, trade n current account deficits, relatively short term external funding n no longer term economic plan. Household sector fully loaded with debt n a housing market which looks 'extended'. Fun times ahead. Short term: squeeze the shorts.

Saar KaL 12:01 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

GBPJPY tgt for oct is 166

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 11:56 GMT September 18, 2013
United States
Reply   

HEADS-UP: Data (top of forum)
EURUSD= 1.3350
GBPUSD= 1.5962
USDJPY= 98.99
AUDUSD= 0.9349
USDCAD= 1.0307

US 10-yr= 2.86%
DE 10-yr= 2.00%
GB 10-yr= 3.00%

(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)

Direct links to primary data sources

Saar KaL 11:40 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

this coming Level for AUDUSD of .96 area
is a very dangerous level
AUDUSD hits that .96 around sept and oct
0.73 is what i expect after that for 2014

London Misha 11:16 GMT September 18, 2013
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - 2nd White Soldier on Daily Chart. Possible Golden Cross Medium over Long MA.
USDJPY - Bullish Hammer fails with possible Bearish Long Shadow on Daily Chart. Tests down to Fibs at 98.73 & 98.56.
GBPUSD - Still follows on to Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart but now with 2nd Bearish Shooting Star as hits resistance 61.8% Fib of 2009-10 move at 1.5968 - again!
USDCHF - Failed Bullish Hammer with 2nd Black Crow after indecisive Spinning Tops & after Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart.
EURGBP - 2nd White Soldier follows Bullish Harami on Daily Chart but possible Bearish Long Black Marubozo today.
AUDUSD - 2nd Bullish White Soldier after Golden Cross of Short MA up over Short/Medium MA on Daily Chart.
USDINR - Overall possible Bearish Midway Gap though yesterday forms indecisive Doji Cross on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - 2nd Black Crow follows failure to test key 50% Fib 9.6758 support on Daily Chart.
USDBRL - Bearish Harami but also Bearish Matching with Long Black Marubozo on Daily Chart.


Saar KaL 11:04 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

GBPCAD started to short
here 1.6450 for a slow boring dive for sept
might hit 1.62 area
Not worh the effort really

Saar KaL 10:42 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

GBPNZD
Shorts here till 1.947
tgt 1.9220

Saar KaL 10:32 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

GBPAUD shorts here
till 1.7110

GVI Forex 10:22 GMT September 18, 2013
Global Markets News
Reply   
Bank of England (BoE) Minutes: No members judged more stimulus appropriate at present; no comment on if market rate expectations are justified. BoE staff now sees Q3 growth at 0.7% vs 0.5% seen in Aug

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: GBP/USD hits 8-month high, as BoE minutes show slightly more upbeat outlook

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:16 GMT September 18, 2013
Join Now!
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Hong Kong AceTrader 09:36 GMT September 18, 2013
Sept 18: DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
Reply   


DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
18 Sep 2013 00:11GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Neutral

21 HR EMA
0.9263

55 HR EMA
0.9276

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Turning up

13 HR RSI
47

14 HR DMI
0

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 decline resumes

Resistance
0.9371 - Sep 11 high
0.9341 - Last Fri's high
0.9279 - Y'day's high

Support
0.9225 - Mon's NZ low
0.9171 - Aug 27 low
0.9147 - Aug 20 low

. USD/CHF - 0.9258.. Despite dlr's retreat after extending gain fm Mon's 2-week low at 0.9225 to 0.9279 in Asia y'day, buying of eur/chf cross lifted price fm 0.9253 in Europe but failure to penetrate said intra-day high prompted another round of dlr selling in NY morning n price later dropped to 0.9257.

. Looking at the hourly chart, dlr's rebound fm 0.9225 to 0.9279 suggests decline fm Aug's 0.9455 high has made a minor low there n another day of choppy sideways trading abv said sup wud be seen, stronger gain twd 0.9298/01 cannot be
ruled out but as the selloff fm 0.9455 indicates correction fm Aug's low at 0.9147 has 'possibly' ended there earlier, suggesting bias for dlr remains to the downside n measured res at 0.9313 (38.2% r of 0.9455-0.9225) shud hold n yield decline later this week. A firm breach of 0.9225 wud extend weakness to 0.9171 (Aug 27 low) but as 'bullish converging signals' shud appear on hourly oscillators on next decline, reckon 0.9147 low wud remain intact on 1st testing.

. In view of abv analysis, selling dlr on intra-day recovery in anticipation of another fall is still favoured. Only abv 0.9341 signals low, 0.9367/71.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:16 GMT September 18, 2013
Fed taper today? Hawkish BOE minutes
Reply   

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS:  US- Housing Starts/Permits. Fed Decision

  • The immediate major focus is the Fed policy decision later. Markets are set up for the central bank to announce a reduction in its asset purchase program. From a trading perspective, the big surprise would be no change. The street expects a  cautious  taper cautiously with a $10-15 bln cut in $85bln monthly purchases. We propose a flexible taper target.

  • Janet Yellen now appears to be the logical candidate to replace Bernanke in January. A leak late Monday had the smell of a trial balloon to us. This can be  good way to test the waters about a possible appointee.

  • Bank of England policy board minutes from two weeks ago . Saw unanimous votes to keep interest rates steady and the size of asset purchases unchanged. Comments about the economy leaned to the hawkish side. The GBP has gained on the statement. See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.

  • Wednesday sees U.S. Housing starts, then Existing Home Sales will be released on Thursday. Thursday also features U.K. CPI data. On Friday Canadian CPI data are released. On Sunday Germany will hold what looks to be closely contested national elections.

  • For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
EURUSD 1.3283
JGB 0.72% 0bp
Asia Close Mixed
USDJPY 98.95
Bund 1.96% -1bp
Europe  Mixed
EURJPY 131.44
U.S. 2.84% -1 bp
North America: Higher

GVI Forex Blog 09:13 GMT September 18, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Housing Starts/Permits. Fed Decision The immediate major focus is the Fed policy decision later. Markets are set up for the central bank to announce a reduction in its asset purchase program. From a trading perspective, the big surprise would be no change. The street expects a cautious taper cautiously with a $10-15 bln cut in $85bln monthly purchases. We propose a flexible taper target.

Fed taper today? Hawkish BOE minutes

Saar KaL 08:54 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

CADJPY Longs till
95.7
tgt 97.4

Amman wfakhoury 08:44 GMT September 18, 2013
GOLD 1313.60
Reply   
1313.60 confirmed abd will be reached.




prague mark 08:44 GMT September 18, 2013
United Kingdom

after ALL this BS optimism priced in, GBP/USD is supposed to collapse... IMHO

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:33 GMT September 18, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply   
Prices in prime fixed income markets are steady to higher early in Europe ahead of the Fed decision today. Peripherals prices are mixed.



GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:32 GMT September 18, 2013
United Kingdom

BOE Comments leaning to the hawkish side. GBP higher.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:30 GMT September 18, 2013
United Kingdom
Reply   

-- ALERT --
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
Rates:Tighten = 0 Unchanged =9 Ease =0
QE: Add = 0 Unchanged =9 Reduce =0


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Saar KaL 08:12 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

USDJPY buying till 98.8

Saar KaL 08:04 GMT September 18, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

EURJPY Long

GVI Forex Blog 06:01 GMT September 18, 2013 Reply   
- Asian equity markets little changed - a quiet before the likely burst of volatility following Wednesday taper decision from the FOMC; According to one survey, analysts are near-even split in expecta

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Quiet before the Taper squall - Source TradeTheNews.com

to dk 04:11 GMT September 18, 2013
What would Goldman think?

here s another one if u want to sunk your teeth into

euro

prague viktor 03:50 GMT September 18, 2013
What would Goldman think?

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

1,40 -1,42 thats what G.S think but sounds to me ur chart too???
G/LG/T

GVI Forex Blog 03:46 GMT September 18, 2013 Reply   
Near term upside potential seen in Equities, but long-term Resistances

Morning Briefing : 18-Sep-2013 -0342 GMT

to dk 02:37 GMT September 18, 2013
What would Goldman think?



EURO

dc CB 02:33 GMT September 18, 2013
What would Goldman think?
Reply   
If you want to know why Obama would choose such a grifter and gamer to head the Fed, you have to ask, Who picked Obama? Ten years ago, Barry Obama was a nothing, a State Senator from the South Side of Chicago..................

The billionaires connected Obama to Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan, but most importantly to Robert Rubin, former Treasury Secretary, but most important, former CEO of Goldman Sachs and mentor of Larry Summers. Without Rubin’s blessing and overwhelming fundraising power, Obama would still be arguing over zoning on Halsted Street.

Rubin picked Obama and Obama picks whom Rubin picks for him.

Larry Summers: Goldman Sacked

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:58 GMT September 18, 2013
Sept 18: Euro rebounds on upbeat German economic sentiment
Reply   
Market Review - 17/09/2013 22:24GMT

Euro rebounds on upbeat German economic sentiment

The single currency rose against other currencies in European session on Tuesday after the release strong German ZEW economic sentiment, however, euro pared some gains in New York session ahead of the end of 2-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday as the policymakers are expected to make a minor reduction its stimulus measures.

Earlier in Asia, despite euro's brief dip to 1.3325, the pair ratcheted higher to 1.3369 in Europe following the upbeat euro zone and Germany ZEW economic sentiments and then climbed to sessions high of 1.3370 in New York morning, however, cross selling of euro versus sterling pressured price to 1.3337 and later traded narrowly sideways for the rest of the day.

German ZEW economic sentiment and current condition indices came in at 49.6, the highest since Apr 2010, and 30.6, much better than the forecasts of 45.0 and 20.0. Euro zone ZEW economic sentiment index was 58.6, better than the expectation of 47.6. ZEW economist said 'main reason for jump in sentiment was good GDP data; inflation expectations unchanged over last month; we see a reflection of higher expectations of growth, especially for export-oriented sectors; strong surprise that Euro zone came out of recession; outlook for private consumption also improved but not as strongly for export-oriented sectors.'

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback extended rise from Monday's low at 98.45 to 99.36 in Asian morning. Although the pair edged lower to 99.04 in New York morning after the release of U.S. CPI (0.1% m/m and 1.5% y/y, versus the forecast of 0.2% m/m and 1.6% y/y), renewed buying interest lifted the pair to intra-day high of 99.38 due partly to the surprise U.S. net long-term TIC inflow data, which came in at $31.1 billion, versus the forecast of an outflow of $15 billions.

Although the British pound retreated from Monday's near 8-month top at 1.5963 to 1.5889 in Asian morning on profit-taking, the pair then rebounded in tandem with euro to 1.5936 in Europe but then quickly fell to 1.5886 after the release of tepid U.K. inflation data, month-on-month core CPI came in at 0.4% m/m, the slowest monthly increase since 2009, and 2.7% y/y, versus the expectation of 0.5% and 2.7% respectively. Cable traded narrowly in New York session above said intra-day low and closed at 1.5904.

On the data front, U.K. RPI came in at 0.5% m/m and 3.3% y/y, versus the forecast of 0.4% m/m and 3.2% y/y whilst ONS house price was at 3.3% y/y, vs the forecast of 3.4%. U.S. NAHB housing mrkt index (Sep) came in at 58, same as the forecast.

In other news, Reserve Bank of Australia minutes stated 'board agreed to keep open possibility of further rate cuts; neither was the board signaling an imminent intention to reduce rates; Australian dollar still high, some further decline would help compensate for drop in mining investment; outlook for non-mining investment still subdued business reluctant to take on risk; strong growth in commodity exports expected to continue for some years.' U.S. Treasury Secretary Lew said 'congress should raise debt ceiling as soon as possible, could be "very dangerous" to try to time a last minute increase; would be "unworkable" to try to prioritize payment obligations if U.S. government ran out of cash; president Obama will not negotiate over debt ceiling, will not accept measures to tie debt limit increase to defunding or delaying Obamacare.'

Data to be released on Wednesday :

Australia leading index, U.K. BOE MPC minutes, Swiss Zew index, U.S. housing starts, building permits and FOMC rate decision and policy announcement.

to dk 01:23 GMT September 18, 2013
United States

taste of communismus

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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