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Forex Forum Archive for 09/20/2013

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:56 GMT September 20, 2013
Chart Points
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:48 GMT September 20, 2013
Commitment of Traders Report

Charts

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: CAD, AUD, Gold, Oil

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:47 GMT September 20, 2013
Commitment of Traders Report

Charts

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:45 GMT September 20, 2013
Commitment of Traders Report
Reply   
COT EUR vs. USD Positions. In week ending Tuesday, EURUSD Longs up and shorts down modestly. Market longer EUR.



COT NET EUR Positions. In week ending Tuesday,



COT JPY vs USD Positions. In week ended Tuesday, JPY shorts up and longs down. Market shorter JPY.




COT NET JPY vs. USD Positions. In the week ended Tuesday.







Belgrade TD 19:44 GMT September 20, 2013
Daily TA trade

Belgrade TD 18:24 GMT September 18, 2013
... Sold Sp500 (ES) ~ 1714 ... T/S later ...
///
out 1/4 ~1704 ... reducing risk ...

london red 18:47 GMT September 20, 2013
Ozmond

re aussie 38.2% of 1.06/88 came in just abovve 9500, a pretty sign level fwiw

tokyo ginko 18:18 GMT September 20, 2013
quiet here

oil heading to test month low..

JERUSALEM kb 18:18 GMT September 20, 2013
Pipshunter

gold may trade side wayy between 1291/1272 and 1376 /1391 at least a month or two

tokyo ginko 18:17 GMT September 20, 2013
quiet here
Reply   
long snp 1704.75 for scalp trade

dc CB 17:38 GMT September 20, 2013
Calendar



Dear Fed,
You always hurt the ones you love

dc CB 17:35 GMT September 20, 2013
Calendar



... It appears to us that many market participants are quite dissonant regarding how they should be positioned, wrestling with the competing sentiments: "I can’t afford to miss a rally, but I sure can’t afford to get killed if things go in the other direction because none of this is real."

dc CB 17:34 GMT September 20, 2013
Calendar


GEORGE: FED WILL NEED CREDIBILITY, CLEAR COMMUNICATIONS TO ASK MARKETS TO TRUST ITS FORWARD GUIDANCE
GEORGE: FED CREATED CONFUSION, DISCONNECT WITH MARKET EXPECTATIONS ON QE
FED'S GEORGE: 'COSTLY STEPS' WERE TAKEN, INCLUDING FED COMMUNICATIONS, TO PREPARE MARKETS FOR CHANGE TO QE3

hillegom purk 17:23 GMT September 20, 2013
Ozmond

Buy AUDUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Hillegom Purk 17:23 GMT July 10, 2013
Ozmond: Reply
I see a serious correction ahead in aud/usd. I will wait and see if it wants the under the 90 thing, but my feel indicator says low in place.
I will play it and go for 500 pips.
s/l will be my sorry a...
_______________________________
Closed everything i owned.
My a... is still alive

Mtl JP 17:19 GMT September 20, 2013
Calendar

atm US stox heading south on putzdom's trumpet proclamations

Saar KaL 17:15 GMT September 20, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

for those that are intretsed into Longer Term position
its GBPNZD Long
should head to 2.1 around dec 2013
Just have to work on Levels in next Month

Mtl JP 17:09 GMT September 20, 2013
Calendar

“I would say October is a live meeting. The chairman put on the table that if we want to, we can have a press conference at that meeting,” Bullard said. “This was a close decision here in September, so it’s possible that you get some data that change the complexion of the outlook and make the committee be comfortable with a small taper in October,” he added. “It’s possible. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but it is possible.”
-
doesn' t look like many care atm

Saar KaL 17:07 GMT September 20, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Thanks RF
Still short here and staying till 1220

Mtl JP 16:47 GMT September 20, 2013
Calendar

in ten minutes at 12:55 p.m. EDT (1655 GMT):
2013 voting dove Bullard starts his yak
subject: economy & monetary policy; with Q&A
risk: potentially high

Mtl JP 16:39 GMT September 20, 2013
Calendar

Tarullo about to start his yak on "macroprudential regulation"
risk: low

Mtl JP 16:36 GMT September 20, 2013
Calendar

already a few minutes that 2013 voting hawk George yaks...
subject: the economy

HK [email protected] 16:08 GMT September 20, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level



Kal

This time your reversal prediction in gold was correct, you warned everyone Y.day to get out, a bit early, but in the right direction:)

Saar KaL 15:54 GMT September 20, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

EURGBP and EURCAD
Are Finshed
They will drop bad next week

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:42 GMT September 20, 2013
Global Markets news
Reply   
Trading volumes are well above normal this morning as US markets face quad witching and index rebalancing after the close.
TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Quad Witching, Rebalancing and Oct aper

GVI Forex Blog 15:22 GMT September 20, 2013 Reply   
September 20. 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, September 23. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CN- HSBC flash PMI, EZ/DE/FR- Flash Mfg/SVC PMIs, US- Markit flash PMI

GVI Forex Data Outlook for September 23, 2013

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 15:19 GMT September 20, 2013
Calendar
Reply   


September 20. 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, September 23. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CN- HSBC flash PMI, EZ/DE/FR- Flash Mfg/SVC PMIs, US- Markit flash PMI



Saar KaL 15:01 GMT September 20, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Cable still bulish for next week
IMO the worst can happen 1.5880
tgt > 1.64
gl

Saar KaL 14:50 GMT September 20, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Sell gold at will if above 1320
silver same if above 21.7

GVI Forex 14:46 GMT September 20, 2013
Week Ahead
Reply   
• US data to question Fed’s tapering decision; focus shifts to fiscal debate

• German Election outcome hangs on FDP, but short-term outlook for euro policy unchanged

• FPC statement due - over the coming years, the FPC may prove more activist than the MPC


ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - FED WOBBLES ON GUIDANCE

Saar KaL 14:09 GMT September 20, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

GBPCAD Long
tgt 1.66

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:00 GMT September 20, 2013
Eurozone
Reply   

-- ALERT --
SEPT 2013: flash EZ Consumer Confidence
-14.9 vs. -14.3 vs. -15.6 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

to dk 13:53 GMT September 20, 2013
Gold



..

to dk 13:32 GMT September 20, 2013
Gold



cable

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:22 GMT September 20, 2013
Gold
Reply   
We have an active Gold Forum in a handy spllt page format. Please use it for your gold Posts. Thank you

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:19 GMT September 20, 2013
Personal Attacks
Reply   
Cut it out

Israel Dil 13:16 GMT September 20, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

If you insist to buy cable to it now with stop at 1.5920

Israel Dil 13:14 GMT September 20, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

no way kaal, sub 1.59 will not be a buying point anymore but a price the falling knife will go through DOWN DOWN

Saar KaL 13:13 GMT September 20, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Longing Cable again
from here to 1.5870
new high coming up

Israel Dil 13:11 GMT September 20, 2013
AUD gold

with the Indians making kids everywhere and not only at the train, every gold discovery is sold out :-)

HK [email protected] 13:08 GMT September 20, 2013
AUD gold



There was yesterday an article in a Chinese newspaper about a big gold deposit (estimated 250,000 tons) found in Fukien province.

If this will be confirmed officially, then gold is a big byebye.
But I doubt this newspaper, as on the same page was a picture of two train passengers in Taiwan caught in a sexual act(yellow newspaper).
So you may or may not believe that news::)))

Israel Dil 13:03 GMT September 20, 2013
AUD gold

xau seems to have total bottom versus all

Patience :-)))

Israel Dil 13:02 GMT September 20, 2013
AUD gold

in short, 1382 have the key for coming months

ed kw 13:01 GMT September 20, 2013
AUD gold

xauaud has a double bottom in weekly chart?

Israel Dil 13:01 GMT September 20, 2013
AUD gold

no thanks

if goes 1160 then few days later you will mid-1000 at least

HK [email protected] 12:59 GMT September 20, 2013
AUD gold



You may buy at 1160 for a nice recoil.

Israel Dil 12:57 GMT September 20, 2013
AUD gold

if 1160 happens then better to take profit at 1060 at least

HK [email protected] 12:55 GMT September 20, 2013
AUD gold



I mentioned 1160 long ago, but gold can even rise more from here, B4 any drop. Such a target takes long time to reach.
It will not happen now or next month, but it will eventually happen, if interest rates will rise too much, or stock market crash will bring gold down with it, to finance losses.

I don't believe anyone can guess exact time for it.

Israel Dil 12:54 GMT September 20, 2013
AUD gold

KWUN

Gold closes daily/weekly above $1382 means $1777 (3 months max) $2277 within 12 months after that.



Central Kwun 12:50 GMT September 20, 2013
AUD gold

RF, you are like this again. no time frame is meaningless, said this to scare people? I can also say gold must rise to 1500, but don't know when, LOL

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:41 GMT September 20, 2013
Canadian Data



Canada: Headline and BOC Core CPI... Still not pressing the top of the BOC range. ..

Mtl JP 12:36 GMT September 20, 2013
eurusd

nh 12:02 Bullard told Bloomberg News that a taper in October is”possible,” but would depend on economic data

i.e. FED is still collectively confused

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:33 GMT September 20, 2013
Canadian Data

-- ALERT --
AUGUST 2013 Canada: Consumer Prices
Bank of Canada Core
yy: +1.3% vs. +1.3% exp. vs. +1.40% prev.

Headline
mm: 0.0% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. 0.10% prev.
yy: +1.1% vs. +1.10% exp. vs. +1.20% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 12:28 GMT September 20, 2013
eurusd

the fed trumpets are lined up thusly:
George (kicks off the parade at half past noon NYT)
Tarullo (10 mins l8tr)
Bullard (15 mins after Tarullo)
Kocherlakota (almost an hour later)

HK [email protected] 12:24 GMT September 20, 2013
AUD gold

Central Kwun 11:59 GMT September 20, 2013
AUD gold: Reply
Gold to 1160? any time frame?
/////////////////////////

I don't know!!!

Tallinn viies 12:20 GMT September 20, 2013
eurusd
Reply   
more FED speakers today...
Kocherlakota
Tarullo
George

Israel Dil 12:18 GMT September 20, 2013
trading call from a lousy day trader

buy the dips between hh:25-hh:35 this hour and take profits just before London close. day trading net/net

Israel Dil 12:13 GMT September 20, 2013
trading call from a lousy day trader
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop: 1.3470

also extremely bored at the moment :-)

being euro long for the rest of today will not come out as wrong

??? 1.36+ ???

to dk 12:09 GMT September 20, 2013
AUD gold

Paul Van Eeden: Fair Market Value For Gold Is Around $950 - $1,000 Per Ounce - 9/4/13

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:05 GMT September 20, 2013
Canadian Data
Reply   

HEADS-UP: Data (top of forum)
EURUSD= 1.3515
GBPUSD= 1.6025
USDJPY= 99.54
AUDUSD= 0.9415
USDCAD= 1.0283

US 10-yr= 2.77%
DE 10-yr= 1.95%
GB 10-yr= 2.95%

(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)

Direct links to primary data sources

Livingston nh 12:02 GMT September 20, 2013
eurusd

viees - did Bullard happen to mention October of what year?

Central Kwun 11:59 GMT September 20, 2013
AUD gold

Gold to 1160? any time frame?

Tallinn viies 11:59 GMT September 20, 2013
eurusd
Reply   
Fed's Bullard: October taper is possible

HK [email protected] 11:25 GMT September 20, 2013
AUD gold
Reply   


Recently some analysts lost their minds, and began talking the Australian$ to parity and more.

Still stick to the charts, that eventually AUD will sink to about 0.8100 and gold to about 1160.
Lucky me that I took the last pop in gold price to eject from the Mkt.
It happened as I just didn't strictly followed my system.
Now sidelined until the typhoon will pass.




London Misha 11:21 GMT September 20, 2013
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - 4th (small) White Soldier & new six month high but also possible indecisive Spinning Top, all on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - 2nd day tests down to Fibs 97.65 & 97.56 but rejects with Bullish Engulfing Pattern & possible Pipe Bottom on Daily Chart!
GBPUSD - The '..mess of AP/SP resistance...' spoken yesterday halts move up with Bearish Harami & possible Tweezer Top on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - 3rd (small) Black Crow but fails so far at 2011-to-date Neckline of H+S Top (0.9080) on Daily Chart.
EURGBP - Failed Bearish Engulfing Pattern with Long White Closing Marubozo leading to possible Double Bottom oN Daily Chart. Closes over key 50% Fib at 0.8418.
AUDUSD - Possible Tweezer Top on Daily Chart!
USDINR - Still either 2nd part Midway Gap or Final Exhaustion Gap on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - Fails at 61.8% Fib support of May-Aug move (9.4802) with possible Tweezer Bottom on Daily Chart.
USDBRL - Fails to make 2nd close below key 50% Fib at 2.1978 but also no close over 61.8& Fib at 2.2027 either. Possible Tweezer Bottom on Daily Chart.


GVI Forex 10:02 GMT September 20, 2013
Global Markets News
Reply   
Markets little changed and search for direction following Thursday's Fed inspired run up

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Markets search for direction after Fed driven gains

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:35 GMT September 20, 2013
German Election
Reply   
BERLIN — Germany’s race for Parliament tightened Thursday, three days before elections, with fresh polls underlining the difficulty that even the popular chancellor, Angela Merkel, faces in building a winning coalition.

As German Vote Nears, No Guarantees for Merkel’s Coalition

dc CB 09:33 GMT September 20, 2013
German Election Sunday. No key market-moving data

Quad witching in the US markets

DOH

DOH?

london red 09:08 GMT September 20, 2013
euro
Reply   
in addition to earlier comments, stops below yesterdays low are likely to be run and will help us reach those previously mentioned supports.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:54 GMT September 20, 2013
German Election Sunday. No key market-moving data
Reply   

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS:  CA- CPI

  • On Friday Canadian CPI data are due on the North American open. While they are critical data for the Bank of Canada, they are unlikely to impact policy in the current economic environment.

  •  On Sunday Germany will hold national elections. The race has become tighter than earlier expected. Polls suggest that Merkel will be returned as Chancellor, but only at the top of a grand Coalition of the major parties. The German election process tends to be complex.

  • Press reports suggest Janet Yellen is the likely  candidate for Bernanke's job. The nomination could come as early as next week barring  an unexpected developments. She should be a safe appointment.

  • For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
EURUSD 1.3300
JGB 0.70% +2bp
Asia Close Mixed
USDJPY 98.99
Bund 1.91% -2bp
Europe  Mixed
EURJPY 131.65
U.S. 2.73% =2 bp
North America: Mixed

GVI Forex Blog 08:53 GMT September 20, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CA- CPI On Friday Canadian CPI data are due on the North American open. While they are critical data for the Bank of Canada, they are unlikely to impact policy in the current economic environment.

German Election Sunday. No key market-moving data

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 08:48 GMT September 20, 2013
Fixed Income

* Barclays capital: we now expect the FED to start tapering in December 2013, to be completed in June 2014, with the first hike in June 2015

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:28 GMT September 20, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply   
Early in Europe, prices in prime fixed income markets are mixed as traders continue to adjust to the Fed no taper decision. Peripheral bond prices are mixed as well.


Saar KaL 08:11 GMT September 20, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

USDCHF
OMG
Will start the blow into 0.9450 Mid oct

I do not think will go less then 0.9030 this coming 1 week

Sydney ACC 08:02 GMT September 20, 2013
Parity still far away for dollar
Reply   
Currency strategists are reviewing their year-end forecasts for the Australian dollar after its renewed buoyancy following the US Federal Reserve’s surprise decision not to cut stimulus, but do not expect it to return to parity with the US dollar.
The National Australia Bank’s currency strategists revised upwards their forecasts for December 2013 from 86 to 92 US cents.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/parity-still-far-away-brfor-dollar-20130920-2u4q6.html#ixzz2fPybHKPk

Saar KaL 08:01 GMT September 20, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Gold...
Now Short and will stay that way till near 1200
for the rest of sept

IMO Entry Long for oct
is between 1183 1203
Worst 1157
tgt for oct end around 1400

dc CB 05:52 GMT September 20, 2013
The Game Continues

They only lost power for a few hundred years. In the long run ...not so much.

They're Back...at least the Mindset is back ORT never left

http://books.google.com/books/about/The_Plantagenets.html?id=KfAAsRL1kDIC

and their heirs

http://www.censored.com/dk/tudors_g-j-meyer_indbundet_9788775143320


dc CB 05:44 GMT September 20, 2013
The Game Continues
Reply   
Plenty of time to Game this

Watch Those Headlines...lol or rather LMAO
________________________________________


While Ms. Yellen faces much less potential opposition than Mr. Summers did, the White House is not taking Senate approval for granted.

Hurdles Still High for a New Front-Runner

Syd 05:03 GMT September 20, 2013
Source TradeTheNews.com
Reply   
Source TradeTheNews.com (US) PIMCO's El Erian: Fed surprise shows Washington lacks of longterm economic strategy - The Atlantic- Says typically the Fed is "not in the business of surprising markets.. Surprises tend to increase uncertainty premiums". - Changes in underlying economic fundamentals do not warrant volatility seen in the equity and bond markets in the past few months. - Fed may be concerned over upcoming Congressional budget battle. - Says: "Whether by choice or necessity, America is favoring immediate stability and inaction. In the process, we are foregoing comprehensive policy implementation, coordinated responses, and win-win public-private partnerships." Source TradeTheNews.com

Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 04:58 GMT September 20, 2013 Reply   
Markets still perplexed over the implication of Fed taper delay; PIMCO's El-Erian's review says the delay demonstrates the absence of longterm economic strategy in Washington. - Gold, Silver ETF funds

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan draws closer to formal announcement on sales tax hike; Still debating accompanying fiscal stimulus - Source TradeTheNews.com

dc CB 04:55 GMT September 20, 2013
Deep Thoughts
Reply   
when you read any of the stories of those who made Billions in the Crash of 200X, you will find that all the winners got in early and had to defend and infact lose many of their invenstors who could not stand the losses.

the funny thing about the winners in that Crash...besides the ones who NEW is would happen, was the stalwart commitment to what they thought was right.

well worth a read or for some a re-read

The Big Short...Michael Lewis

dc CB 04:46 GMT September 20, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Saar KaL 04:13 GMT September 20, 2013 - My Profile
KaL's Trend and Level: Reply
Little boring but very true

Why I never watch the news.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The problem with this is that there are ALGO BOTS whose PRIMARY FUNCTION is TO WATCH THE HEADLINES.

if those Headlines are True or False...If they make the "News" dont matter. The Bots will take it where they will.

If you've got the "padding" to take the hit the Kudos to you my fellow poster.

Hong Kong AceTrader 04:16 GMT September 20, 2013
Sept 20 : Dollar rebounds broadly on short-covering after upbeat U.S. data
Reply   
Market Review - 19/09/2013 22:15GMT

Dollar rebounds broadly on short-covering after upbeat U.S. data

The greenback pared post-FOMC losses on Thursday and gained the most against the Japanese yen. Dollar was supported against yen in New York morning due to a slew of upbeat U.S. economic data, including jobless claims, existing home sales and Philadelphia Fed survey.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback rebounded strongly in Asia session after Wednesday's selloff to 97.76 on short-covering together the rally in Japan's Nikkei index and then rallied to 99.00 in European morning on active broad-based selling of yen. Later, price rose further in New York morning on the better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims (309K versus 330K) and climbed to 99.65 after the release of the upbeat U.S. existing home sales, leading index and Philadelphia Fed survey but then retreated on profit-taking.

U.S. existing home sales came in at 5.48M and 1.7% m/m, versus the forecast of 5.25M and -2.6% m/m respectively. U.S. leading indicator was 0.7%, versus the expectation of 0.6%, previous reading is revised to 0.5%. U.S. Philadelphia Fed survey (Sep) came in at 22.3, versus the forecast of 10.3.

The single currency edged lower in Asia after a brief pullback from Wednesday's top at 1.3543 to 1.3501 in Australia and climbed to a fresh 7-month top at 1.3569 in Europe on active cross buying of euro versus sterling, price then retreated to 1.3509 in New York session on renewed dollar's broad-based rebound and profit-taking in eur/jpy cross.

The British pound traded narrowly in Asia after Wednesday's rally to a 8-month top at 1.6163 but fell sharply to 1.6063 in European morning after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.K. retail sales (-0.9% m/m and 2.1% y/y, versus the forecast of 0.4% m/m and 3.3% y/y), price later ratcheted lower to 1.6022 in New York session before stabilising.

In other news, BoE's Miles said 'U.K. growth may be becoming self-sustaining, but recovery still embryonic; too early to judge market reaction to Fed, U.K. yield curve not tied to U.S.; stronger growth main reason for his dropping call for more QE; markets may be proved right on faster jobless fall, but perhaps underestimate productivity rebound.'

ECB's Asmussen said 'Greek programme working, we see progress; Greek growth data released today is "positive and encouraging".'

Data to be released on Friday:

U.K. PSNCR, public sector net borrowing, EU consumer confidence, Canada CPI on Friday. China will be closed due to public holiday.

Saar KaL 04:14 GMT September 20, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

The Link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cm3AKz_JycE

Saar KaL 04:13 GMT September 20, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Little boring but very true

Why I never watch the news

prague viktor 03:53 GMT September 20, 2013
eurusd

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

hi im so glad for u thats the euro is going in the way u love it but i stiil do belive the down side first and hopefully the big boys will let EURO fly this year is under perfect control
G/L G/T

GVI Forex Blog 03:37 GMT September 20, 2013 Reply   
As feared, Equities are not seeing follow-through buying and are vulnerable

Morning Briefing : 20-Sep-2013 -0334 GMT

Porto Cubriclas 03:10 GMT September 20, 2013
GBP/AUD
Reply   
Hi Dr.Qindex. Any view about gbp/aud? TIA

bali sja 02:01 GMT September 20, 2013
eurusd

Viies, i think euro 1.3720 and further 1.3880 also good

dc CB 00:43 GMT September 20, 2013
Auction anyone? ZH analysis
Reply   
When people think failed or busted Treasury bond auction, they usually imagine something out of Brazil or Russia where the government was selling obligations and nobody showed up. Of course, in the US, courtesy of the Primary Dealer system and more importantly, of a multi-trillion shadow banking system, where bonds are cash equivalent following rehypothecation and pledging for cash-equivalents with virtually no haircut, there is no risk of an auction failing in the conventional sense

However, that does not mean that auction's can't "fail" in a purely technical sense. Which is exactly what happened during last week's sale of 3 month Bills, when due to a "glitch" in the system not only was a key Primary Dealer locked out of the auction, forcing the US Treasury to arbitrarily reassign allotment in the parallel 6 month auction, but leading to a wild intraday mispricing in the already collateral-scarce, short term maturity market. .....................................

Luckily this time it was just a Bill auction, which is not as closely scrutinized by the broader public, although the vast majority of money-markets, banks and corporations are very active participants in the cash-equivalent space. However, what if the TAAPS system encountered a "Taps" moment, and shut off not just Goldman but the majority of Primary Dealers (we hope the Syrian Electronic Army isn't getting any ideas here), in a much more important benchmark security, say the 10 Year? How would the already jittery market react if instead of pricing just around the When Issued, the 10 Year were to price some 50% higher for some unknown reason?

One can only imagine the cross asset cataclysm that would ensue as the panic gripped the kneejerky, HFT-dominated bond markets, who, unclear what had just happened, decided to follow suit and dump it all...

About Last Week's "Busted" Treasury Auction

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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