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Forex Forum Archive for 09/26/2013

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lahore FM 22:52 GMT September 26, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Sell AUDUSD
Entry: 0.9364 Target: 0.88 Stop: 0.9425

sold now.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 22:14 GMT September 26, 2013
Calendar
Reply   


September 26 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, September 27. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- CPI, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- Personal Income, PCE, University of Michigan Survey

  • Far East: JP- CPI.
  • Europe: EZ- Consumer Confidence.
  • North America: US- Personal Income, PCE, University of Michigan Survey, COT Report.


dc CB 22:10 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

How it's done. Mary Jo Mary Jo say it isn't so.
_______________________________________

They lied. Is this criminal? Surely the SEC will get involved immediately.

So Many Lies, So Little Time: JCP Sells 84 Million Shares Via Goldman Sachs Hours After Telling CNBC It Won't Sell Equity

Tallinn viies 21:26 GMT September 26, 2013
eurusd
Reply   
I have been waiting and waiting and waiting to buy euros on small correction down after FOMC decision. first thought market will correct next day. then hoped after weekly options expired then euro definatelly shoul fly. still not.'
'couldnt wait anymore. bought today at 1,3478-. stop sell if daily euro close under 1,3430. I think euro will start to move higher after monday options cut off. talks about huge barrier at 1,3600 which still contains.
personally think that absolut minimum target up is 1,3690/3700. will see it next I reckon.

Mtl JP 21:15 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

... $16.7 trillion U.S. borrowing limit, which the Treasury Department said will be reached by Oct. 17...

no word on the enabling complicity on Bernanke's FED

Mtl JP 21:11 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

Americans Reject by 61% Obama Demand for Clean Debt Vote - bbrg Sep 26, 2013

Americans by a 2-to-1 ratio disagree with President Barack Obama’s contention that Congress should raise the U.S. debt limit without conditions.

Instead, 61 percent say that it’s “right to require spending cuts when the debt ceiling is raised even if it risks default,” because Congress lacks spending discipline, according to a Bloomberg National Poll conducted Sept. 20-23. .../..

Mtl JP 21:04 GMT September 26, 2013
U.K. data weaker than expected. U.S. jobs data better

john 20:20 / re Yellen and "She should be a safe appointment"
safe ... for who? as a non-embarassement for 0's nominatiuon process for sailing thu as appointee or safe for markets ?
I can not imagine how she would be safe for markets, hence my Q.
tia

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 20:22 GMT September 26, 2013
U.K. data weaker than expected. U.S. jobs data better
Reply   

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- CPI, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- Personal Income, PCE, University of Michigan Survey

  • On Friday, the University of Michigan Sentiment Survey is released among other items. U.S. jobless claims released on Thursday was stronger than anticipated.

  • The released a larger than expected 2Q13 Current Account deficit. Final  2Q3 GDP y/y was revised down  from earlier estimates. See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.

  • Janet Yellen appears to be the likely candidate to take Bernanke's job as Fed Chair in late January. Her nomination could come as early as this week or next. She should be a safe appointment.

  • For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
EURUSD 1.3338
JGB 0.70% +2bp
Asia Close Mixed
USDJPY 99.19
Bund 1.83% +1bp
Europe Mixed
EURJPY 132.31
U.S. 2.64% +3 bp
North America: Higher

GVI Forex Blog 20:21 GMT September 26, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- CPI, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- Personal Income, PCE, University of Michigan Survey On Friday, the University of Michigan Sentiment Survey is released among other items. U.S. jobless claims released on Thursday was stronger than anticipated.

U.K. data weaker than expected. U.S. jobs data better

dc CB 20:10 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

Biggie POMO tomorrow
$4.75 - $5.75 billion

As sure as one can be for a Green Day in Stox.
Will any of it find its way into WTIC, which has been beaten down this week?

GVI Forex Blog 20:03 GMT September 26, 2013 Reply   
Another subdued session today with markets lacking any clear sense of purpose in either direction as uncertainty over whether a deal can be reached in time to avoid a government shutdown in the US and whether the debt ceiling can also be raised in time continues to hamper risk appetite.

NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:52 GMT September 26, 2013
Chart Points

Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:45 GMT September 26, 2013
Chart Points
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:28 GMT September 26, 2013
USDJPY Technicals

click on image in 18:42 GMT post ed kw 18:53 GMT September 26, 2013 past cot links needed : Reply Edit Delete john you have no link to last weeks cots /it had u/j shorts down ????????????????

Paris ib 19:15 GMT September 26, 2013
Weak 7 year auction

CB great link. Scary as he.ll but instructive. I find the information about the debacle in the Gold market interesting.... adds even more detail to what we already know following the NY FED refusal to hand over the Gold they were supposed to have in storage for the Germans. Who knows what else is out there. Sooner or later this is going to blow.

ed kw 19:07 GMT September 26, 2013
USDJPY Technicals

ed kw 12:48 GMT September 20, 2013
Buy Gold : Reply
jpy is buying foreign bonds thats a good move

dc CB 18:56 GMT September 26, 2013
Weak 7 year auction

The USFed, the USGovt, and the Big US Banks urgently needed to stop the move in the 10-year bond yield (aka TNX). They needed to prevent a move above 3.0% on the USTreasury yield. They needed to avoid a calamity with both Interest Rate Swaps and USTBond carry trade reversals. They needed to avoid a trigger of sell stops. They needed to prevent the rest of the world selling off USTBonds within their reserves management systems, the foundation of their national banking systems.

So the USFed and Big US Banks called upon themselves to place artificial high bids on USTBonds sold among themselves in a circle jerk of Flash Trading. They pushed the TNX below 2.9% quickly in the corrupt process. USFed Chairman Bernanke then backed off the Taper Talk threat, and the USTBonds rushed in a pathetic rally. The Jackass forecasted his retreat exactly, a bluff after a failed trial balloon.

Flash Trading Hits USTreasury Bonds

ed kw 18:53 GMT September 26, 2013
past cot links needed
Reply   
john you have no link to last weeks cots /it had u/j shorts down ????????????????

ed kw 18:47 GMT September 26, 2013
USDJPY Technicals

last weeks cot had shorts down ?

Belgrade TD 18:46 GMT September 26, 2013
USDJPY Technicals

OK - its fixed now ... :)

Belgrade TD 18:45 GMT September 26, 2013
USDJPY Technicals

John - "The image “http://www.global-view.com/forums... cannot be displayed because it contains errors."

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 18:42 GMT September 26, 2013
USDJPY Technicals



Here is a new COT chart I have been testing out for myself. I have muted the colors on the long and short bars so the spot and 20-day moving average.

What I have noticed on this chart (and others) is how speculative positions are governed by the cross-over of the spot rate vs. the 20-day moving average. The two are a good gauge of dealer sentiment.

In this instance watch how the spot vs 20-day average is reflected to JPY shorts (pink bar). Currently we are moving into neutrality and that is reflected in the charts. Im looking for when and it which direction we will break out.

ed kw 18:32 GMT September 26, 2013
USDJPY Technicals

nikkei and s%p topish

ed kw 18:28 GMT September 26, 2013
USDJPY Technicals

chf/jpy new top ?????????????????????????????????????????

ed kw 18:26 GMT September 26, 2013
USDJPY Technicals

jpy exporters heated at {98]

ed kw 18:23 GMT September 26, 2013
USDJPY Technicals

bug funds are over in to much are hesitant to add but a stop hunt or up on us strength from gov. fear or hot air

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 18:11 GMT September 26, 2013
USDJPY Technicals

USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

Top and bottom of wedge: 100.20 and 97.60

ed kw 18:06 GMT September 26, 2013
USDJPY Technicals

usd/jpy cot drops and retail large store inventories are not moving this year sell for 93 is a good bet and the usd/chf will help to see if your on the right side
risk is nfp students will send it up fro back to school

Paris ib 17:59 GMT September 26, 2013
Weak 7 year auction
Reply   
"issuance of $29 billion in 7 Year paper was downright weak. Of note: the high yield of 2.058% tailing well above, or nearly 1 basis point wider, compared to the When Issued which was trading at 2.049%. This was the largest tail since June 2012 according to SMRA calculation. Additionally while the 2.46 Bid To Cover was not a new four year low, it was the second lowest since May 2009, and only better compared to last month's 2.43 BTC in the August revulsion of an auction."

Zero

Saar KaL 17:04 GMT September 26, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Expected Highs and Low
Oct-13
Expected Highs and Low
Gold 1490 1320
Silver 27 21

Saar KaL 17:01 GMT September 26, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

OK John...Maybe I am too early with my calls
(Normal)
any ways been working levels for oct 2013
this is the best I got

Expected Highs and Low

EURUSD 1.363 1.325
GBPUSD 1.64 1.57
USDJPY 102 97.5
USDCHF 93.7 88.9
USDCAD 104.3 101
AUDUSD 0.962 0.923
NZDUSD 0.86 0.805

EURJPY 136 132
GBPJPY 163 157

dc CB 16:56 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

“If the CFTC discovered that the rigging of the monetary metals markets is essentially government policy, being conducted through intermediaries, then it would not be able to act against government agents.


By federal law, the Gold Exchange Act of 1934 specifically authorizes the US government to rig not only the gold market, but to rig any (financial) market surreptitiously through the Exchange Stabilization Fund. If the CFTC has discovered that market rigging is taking place because of US government policy, then according to law there is nothing to be done about it.”

The Shocking Truth About Secret Documents & The CFTC

Mtl JP 16:32 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

CB c my JP 12:41 GMT Sep 25 on Gold forum

Mtl JP 16:21 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

so far attack on the lower and of the eurdlr range (1.3460) is feeble

dc CB 16:18 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

round 2 of the Gold/Silver PM smackdown.

Thank you CFTC for that dismissal...Free to Rape it without fear of penalty.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 16:14 GMT September 26, 2013
USDJPY Technicals
Reply   


Technical Chart
USDJPY poised for a break out to the upside??

We'd love to see your comments and ideas how to we might trade it.

Belgrade TD 16:06 GMT September 26, 2013
Daily TA trade

Buy USDCAD
Entry: ~1,032 Target: 1,04/1,06/+ Stop: ~1,029

Long here ...

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 15:44 GMT September 26, 2013
Fixed Income

Prices in prime fixed income markets still soft but they are improving late in Europe. Peripherals prices are now mixed.


GVI Forex Blog 15:08 GMT September 26, 2013 Reply   
September 26 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, September 27. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- CPI, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- Personal Income, PCE, University of Michigan Survey

GVI Forex Data Outlook for September 27, 2013

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 15:06 GMT September 26, 2013
Calendar
Reply   


September 26 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, September 27. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- CPI, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- Personal Income, PCE, University of Michigan Survey

  • Far East: JP- CPI.
  • Europe: EZ- Consumer Confidence.
  • North America: US- Personal Income, PCE, University of Michigan Survey, COT Report.


PAR 14:47 GMT September 26, 2013
J C Penney
Reply   
We don t need additional capital . Bear Stearns revisited ?

Paris ib 14:44 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

JP.... if the European debt crisis taught us anything it is that higher yields DO NOT necessarily mean a rising currency!! The sell off in U.S. yields is not a bullish USD indicator. It indicates one thing: people are leaving that market. And if those people are overseas and taking the money home that means higher U.S. yields will go hand in hand with a LOWER USD.

Mtl JP 14:42 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

ib 14:27 look at German yields (heading lower) which means, relatively speaking, yield spread favors the usd. eur has yet to catch up. unless players expect US yield to catch up to the German ?

someone plz post a German/US 2-yr spread overlay
tia

Paris ib 14:40 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

JP... do tell.

Mtl JP 14:40 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

that sounds oh soo... mysterious
which service outfit(s) has a contract with the FED for their mortgage titles ?

Paris ib 14:38 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

JP Mortgage Backed Securities, almost but not quite like mortgages. Welcome to the wonderful world of derivatives. The diffusion of which, according to Ellen Brown, is the real reason for the U.S. attempt to attack Syria.

The whole sorry mess adds up to USD weakness in the long term. Smoke and mirrors in the short term maybe.... but long term no doubt....

Syria

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:38 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

Checks are made to a mortgage service company, which could be a bank. Borrowers usually have no idea who ultimately owns their mortgage.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:35 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

Thats a big build in Nat Gas and the weather remains mild. Bearish energy?

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:31 GMT September 26, 2013
United States





ALERT
WEEKLY- US Natural Gas (bcf)
+87 vs. +55 exp vs. +46 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 14:29 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

john do folks stuck in those underwatr mortgages actually make out their cheques (IF they make them) to the Federal Reserve - what / who exactly are those FED held mortgage payments made to ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:28 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

JP, you can also see it as 1.3450-1.3550, 1.3450 being the former breakout level and most important and 1.35 the focus as long as it stays within this range, Quarter end flows will likely dominate more than fresh positioning.

Paris ib 14:27 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

John.... good grief. At the moment they're buying mortgages, the next step would be straight out buy houses.

Jay, point taken but it's a bit hard to trade this market. Every central bank out there DOES NOT want to see their currency become flavour of the month and appreciate. Overall it still looks like the USD is under pressure (though the Japanese clearly want the USD/JPY to stay around current levels, not fall so that's a bit of a no go). The U.S. does not want the USD in freefall because the U.S. need foreign capital inflows to continue.

No-one knows what is going on with FED policy. Fiscal policy is in an even worse state. U.S. bonds have seen a sell off and since recovered somewhat... it's not exactly a clear outlook at the moment. What's your best trade idea?

PTA AHG 14:23 GMT September 26, 2013
EURUSD
Reply   
Look like bullish flag formation developing on EURUSD 4H chart, not yet completed

Mtl JP 14:23 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

trading slant:
eurdlr still trapped in 1.3460 to 1.3570 range.
go with the eventual breakout.

c it differently ?

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:20 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

ib- They are. Fed is buying U.S. Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities. They take the mortgages off the hands of the banks after the loans are made.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:18 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

You can debate the Fed all you want but means little unless you turn it into a trade idea.

Hint: We would like to see discussions include a trade idea or at least have a trading slant to it.

Paris ib 14:16 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

Why doesn't the FED just print dollars to buy real estate? Good grief. Why limit price fixing to the bond market? Then they could end up with a good portion of the homes out there and they could 'allocate' those.... straight up socialism.

Mtl JP 14:16 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

john 14:00 // 60% miss off expectation: does -1.6% vs -1.00% qualify as weaker or "lot weaker" ?

Mtl JP 14:09 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

ugly ... some could have tot that threat of higher rates would make people want hurry up and try to close (like may and june #s which brought demand forward), still based on the much higher 10 yr prior to the non-taper

Fed has to bring the 10yr below 2.3% in order to keep the housing market 'alive'. anything more, activity grinds towards a halt. currently 2.65 so they still have a lot more printing to do.

lets see what the roster of FED trumpets spews:
14:10gmt - permanent consensus voter Stein kicks off the parade

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:08 GMT September 26, 2013
United States



CHART: Pending Homes sales data weaker than expected. Red line indicating weaker Existing Homes Sales in store. EURUSD gais initially.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:00 GMT September 26, 2013
United States




-- ALERT --
AUGUST 2013 U.S. Pending Homes Sales
-1.60% vs. -1.00% exp. vs. -1.30% (r -1.40%)prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:58 GMT September 26, 2013
United Kingdom

Also the Fed Chair only has one vote, just like all the voting FOMC members.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:56 GMT September 26, 2013
United Kingdom

Similar to political leaders, they are rarely as conservative or liberal once the realities of the office take over.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:55 GMT September 26, 2013
United Kingdom

If nominated and approved by the Senate as expected, Yellen will not come in until the end of January.

Mtl JP 13:54 GMT September 26, 2013
United Kingdom

td bye bye usd, hello _____ ?

singapore td 13:52 GMT September 26, 2013
United Kingdom

Yellen's installment will mean bye bye usd and it looks like it is heading that way IMHO

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:51 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

JP- yes. It is not a high profile number, but it could play a part in shaping the overall TONE of the market in coming days. Especially if it is a lot weaker or stronger than expected/

Mtl JP 13:43 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

Pending Homes # is unlikely to elicit >30 pip reaction move

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:38 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

Pending Homes Sales value is as a predictor of Existing Homes sales in future months.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:36 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

HEADS-UP: Data (top of forum)
EURUSD= 1.3490
GBPUSD= 1.6018
USDJPY= 98.94

US 10-yr= 2.63%
DE 10-yr= 1.85%
GB 10-yr= 2.75%
(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)

Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 13:34 GMT September 26, 2013
U.K. data weighing on GBP. Key data due from U.S

ECB Mersch's yak on "banking union" = euro zzzz ..

Paris ib 13:22 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

JP what are the regulators doing about that? Waiting around for another Lehman moment?

Paris ib 13:21 GMT September 26, 2013
The USD needs inflows

Buy EUR/AUD @ 1.44.

Mtl JP 13:20 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

ib jail is an unrealistic dream

more realistic might be for market sharks (i.e. bond types) to attack
Goldman Sachs
Total Assets: $113,743,000,000 (113.743 billion)
Total Derivatives: $42,251,600,000,000 (42.251 trillion)
(.pdf)
ratio of 371 derivatives (mostly interest bets) to assets

London Mick 13:19 GMT September 26, 2013
The USD needs inflows

Does anyone have a trading idea? I am currently lost and that rarely happens to me.

Paris ib 13:13 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

Put 'em in jail.

Mtl JP 13:13 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

ib it can be happening only because life for these characters is comfortable and safe

Paris ib 13:12 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

John.... until the FED backs out and let's demand and supply for capital find it's true interest rate the economy is going to be struggling. Savers want a higher return, without it you just won't get much saving, just massive amounts of unwise risk taking with no longer term economic benefit. Borrowers will borrow, even at a higher rate, if the economy is seen to be on a firm footing and in the same way banks will lend. But first we need clarity. We need less talk from the FED. In fact no talk and no more QE would be a good. And a clear announcement about how they are going to get there. Less bowing down to the god of low interest rates. We've all lived in a world where rates were higher with no harm done.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:06 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

U.S. 10-yr now 2.64% +3bp

Paris ib 13:03 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

JP.... well it's a scandal. All of these policies are a failure and all that is on offer is more of the same. Low rates are a joke not a panacea. Just ask the Japanese.

Mtl JP 13:00 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

ib ... you have seen nothing yet with Ben's low yields.

prepare yourself for Janet - voter for negative rates - Yellen in case she gets installed. She will likely save Ben's legacy and make him look like a hawk.
-
I suggest that damaging the economy is only a sideffect of the FED's primary objective which is to protect their bankster buddies. At all costs. Including that of the salt-of-the-earth hard-n-honest working american savers who see their savings go to fertilizer so that a few banksters can make gazillions.

Debt and indebtedness: the slave-shackles that bind into serfdom.

Paris ib 12:49 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

In fact I'm beginning to wonder if low interest rates and QE are damaging the economy in some insidious way. So much for living in a free market economy.... not what we have here is price setting. Which has never, ever worked (though it does give some people a lot of power).

Paris ib 12:46 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

JP I'm kinda over the idea that low short term and bond yields make things happen in the economy. It's almost a religious idea these days. No-one questions it. Fact is it's killing savers, forcing people into higher risk investments (with likely ugly consequences down the road) and hasn't see any real increase in credit growth (unsurprising really given that lending criteria has been tightened across the board).

Who benefits? Well the government gets to see its existing debt increase more slowly (since the cost of refinancing is lower than it ordinarily would be) and the banks who get to ride the yield curve (borrow short, lend long). But the economy? Not happening...

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:45 GMT September 26, 2013
United States


Weekly Jobless data much better than forecast. Revisions to previous data only minor. USD bullish.





Click on chart for ten-year history


Mtl JP 12:41 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

nh 11:56 / US national debt approaches $17 trillion
"they" want to raise the debt limit. haha
I ... want to see rates go.... (drum-roll) .... UP
any objections ?

think the FED gang can , outside of talk, reduce let alone stop printing ? Is the economy on a growth path that would permit that ?

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:41 GMT September 26, 2013
United States



2Q13 GDP revision barely changed.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:31 GMT September 26, 2013
United States





ALERT
U.S. Weekly Jobless
Initial Claims (000)
305K vs. 325K exp. vs. 309K (r. 310K) prev.
Continued Claims (mln)
2.823 vs. 2.860 exp. vs. 2.787 (r. 2.788 ) prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:30 GMT September 26, 2013
United States




-- ALERT --
U.S. GDP 2Q13 final
+2.5% vs. +2.60% exp. vs. +2.50% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Paris ib 12:24 GMT September 26, 2013
The USD needs inflows

This link should work better.

U.S. capital flows

Mtl JP 12:23 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

ya..
jobless claims and Q2 GDP
pending home sales
and - trumpets - 4 Fed smoke blowers
amazing the cheek of these liars... no shame showing themselves

Paris ib 12:22 GMT September 26, 2013
The USD needs inflows
Reply   
If the USD is to appreciate over time then it needs to attract foreign capital.... speculative USD longs are not hard to drum up with a lot of positive USD propaganda, but the long term stuff is harder to come by. These days money isn't flowing into the U.S., it's flowing out. The cacophony of noise from every FED member, Bernanke's cluelessness, the debt ceiling 'debate'.... aren't helping.

Capital Flows

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:19 GMT September 26, 2013
United States
Reply   

HEADS-UP: Data (top of forum)
EURUSD= 1.3500
GBPUSD= 1.6035
USDJPY= 98.82
AUDUSD= 0.9380
USDCAD= 1.0304

US 10-yr= 2.62%
DE 10-yr= 1.83%
GB 10-yr= 2.73%

(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:16 GMT September 26, 2013
Videos
Reply   

I posted some videos on the Inner Circle as part of my Common Sense Approach that offer practical tools that can be used in every day trading.

Contact me to get access to the videos.

Paris ib 12:15 GMT September 26, 2013
rvdmarkets technical and fundamentalanalysis

A downgrade of Italy is expected this Friday, after markets have closed. That will dovetail nicely with the 'crisis' which is supposedly going on in Italian politics. Berlusconi has been under investigation for decades, his recent conviction, with all the political consequences that follow, was well timed and will certainly be helpful in preventing further massive EUR/USD upside. I'm not sure, though, if at this stage the USD and U.S. financial markets will benefit. U.S. economic policy, both fiscal and monetary, not to mention U.S. foreign policy (war mongering basically) doesn't help to make a positive case for the USD and U.S. financial markets. The U.S. remains dependent on ongoing foreign capital inflows to fund its current account deficit (and as a consequence to fund its Federal government deficit). That is not a unique weakness but it is a very big one.

Livingston nh 11:56 GMT September 26, 2013
United States

Markets always give you one last chance // Equities have posted five days of indigestion since last week's Sugar Rush -- Fixed income probably next as 10 yr sees its low between now and Monday as quarterly profit taking takes hold after Ben's reprieve -- and if yields rise can pressure on currencies be far behind?? First test EUR -- 1.3454 // JPY -- 99.13
Ben may have brought on Phase Two of "tightening financial conditions" - the Fed had been suggesting a mid 2014 end to all liquidity injections - if that is still the target the non-taper decision has compressed the 85 bio into a possible 6 mth time period -- one wag noted risk/reward in bond market now was like running onto the freeway to pick up pennies
Will any ratings agency dare threaten downgrades? Not likely anybody wants to criticize Congress or the Administration given the S&P pout about "political" prosecution (probably right but not a defense) or the current Gang Tackling of JPM Chase
Watch the Congressional negotiations closely for signs that the politicization of the Fed (nothing really new here) will reach an extreme level - the Senate Dems if they don't split can approve anybody BUT Drum Banging by the Tea Party types or Backroom deals for debt ceiling that require an outsider for the Fed can make the nomination process even more distasteful

London Chris 11:53 GMT September 26, 2013
Preserve your capital
Reply   
Capital preservation market at this time IMHO

Rvdmarkets 11:44 GMT September 26, 2013
rvd technical and fundamentalanalysis

THURSDAY, 26 SEN '13
Italian president cancels participation to event due to 'disturbing political event'

The euro and the Italian market fell today following the news that Italian President Giorgio Napolitano unexpectedly canceled his appearance at a conference in Rome due to the the fact that he needed to give his full attention to a “sudden political development that is institutionally disturbing.”
Deputies from Silvio Berlusconi's PDL party warned late Wednesday that they could step down if their leader was expelled from the Italian Senate, following his tax fraud conviction. A special Senate committee will decide whether to revoke his mandate during a vote scheduled for October 4.
Napolitano's announcement today shook the markets as it might mean that the stability of Enrico Letta's government is being undermined.

Rvdmarkets 11:43 GMT September 26, 2013
rvd technical and fundamentalanalysis
Reply   


EUR/USD regains 1.3500

FXs.com (Edinburgh) -After bottoming near 1.3480, the EUR/USD managed to pick up pace and retake the 1.3500 handle on Thursday.
EUR/USD range-bound
The pair seems to get back its composure after a bout of weakness stemming from the Italian political arena dragged the euro to test intraday lows in the boundaries of 1.3480 against the greenback. Buyers are back now, lifting the pair beyond 1.3500 ahead of US employment and housing data. Following the last Fed fiasco, Strategist Jane Foley at Rabobank commented, “That said, on the back of Fed tapering expectations we expect that by year-end the euro will have retreated back towards EUR/USD 1.3200. However, we don’t expect the euro to give up ground willingly to the USD and we maintain a 6 mth forecast of 1.300”.
EUR/USD key levels
At the moment the pair is losing 0.14% at 1.3507 with the immediate support at 1.3459 (23.6% of 1.3104-.13569) followed by 1.3453 (high Au.20) and then 1.3399 (high Aug.28). On the upside, a surpass of 1.3555 (high Sep.23) would expose 1.3569 (high Sep.19) and finally 1.3598 (high Feb.5).
USD/JPY reverses daily gains

The USD/JPY reversed early gains during the European session and dropped back below the 99.00 mark, weighed by Fed's Lacker comments and Japan pension panel.
Lacker and pension panel put USD/JPY under pressure
The USD/JPY had rallied to a high of 99.10 during the Asian session amid renewed talk of a corporate tax cut and speculation about Japan's public pension reforms.
A panel charged with proposing a revamp of Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) - the world’s largest public pension fund - met Thursday, but the statement offered little detail and lacked of any direct suggestion on yen diversification, putting USD/JPY back under pressure.

The USD/JPY selloff was fueled by FOMC Lacker comments, saying US growth unlikely to accelerate anytime soon and that it is difficult to taper in October 'without losing face'.
USD/JPY technical levels
USD/JPY pulled back from above 99.00 back to the 98.50 zone within the last minutes, where it is trading at time of writing, still 0.1% above its opening price. Immediate supports are now seen at 98.25 (daily low), 98.00 (psychological level) and 97.75 (Sep 18 low), while resistances could be found at 99.10 (daily high) and 99.65 (Sep 20 high).

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:10 GMT September 26, 2013
Videos
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GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 11:08 GMT September 26, 2013
United States
Reply   
FYI - Weekly jobless claims data could continue to be complicated by the aftermath of computer upgrades in California. Data over the past two weeks have been distorted.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:09 GMT September 26, 2013
Global Markets News
Reply   
Talk of possible corporate tax reform in Japan drove the yen weaker to 99.11.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Banking and political concerns in Italy weigh on markets

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:58 GMT September 26, 2013
U.K. data weighing on GBP. Key data due from U.S
Reply   

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Weekly .Jobless, GDP, Pending Homes Sales

  • The GBP has eased om a larger than expected 2Q13 Current Account deficit. Final  2Q3 GDP y/y was revised down  from earlier estimates. See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.

  • Today sees U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, a 2Q13 GDP revision, and New Homes Sales. On Friday, the University of Michigan Sentiment Survey is released among other items.

  • Janet Yellen appears to be the likely candidate to take Bernanke's job as Fed Chair in late January. Her nomination could come as early as this week or next. She should be a safe appointment.

  • For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
EURUSD 1.3326
JGB 0.70% +2bp
Asia Close Mixed
USDJPY 99.16
Bund 1.83% +1bp
Europe Lower
EURJPY 132.14
U.S. 2.64% +3 bp
North America: Higher

GVI Forex Blog 09:57 GMT September 26, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Weekly .Jobless, GDP, Pending Homes Sales The GBP has eased om a larger than expected 2Q13 Current Account deficit. Final 2Q3 GDP y/y was revised down from earlier estimates. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.

U.K. data weighing on GBP. Key data due from U.S

kl shawn 08:57 GMT September 26, 2013
United Kingdom

opportunity to buy cable for 1.63

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:56 GMT September 26, 2013
United Kingdom



U.K. final 2Q13 GDP (yy) revised modestly lower. GBP lower on Curremt Account data.


GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:35 GMT September 26, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply   
Prices in prime fixed income markets weaker early in Europe. Peripherals prices down.


GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:32 GMT September 26, 2013
United Kingdom
Reply   



ALERT
UK GDP-- 2Q13 final
QQ +0.70% vs. +0.70% exp. vs. +0.70% prev.
YY +1.30% vs. +1.50% exp. vs. +1.50% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:31 GMT September 26, 2013
United Kingdom
Reply   



ALERT
UK Current Account GBP bn-- 2Q13
-13.0 vs. -11.0 exp. vs. -14.5 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Tallinn viies 08:23 GMT September 26, 2013
eurusd
Reply   

RTRS-Euro zone private loan contraction accelerates in August
FRANKFURT, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Loans to households and
companies in the euro zone contracted further in August, showing
that the currency bloc's recovery is still fragile.
The European Central Bank has highlighted limited access to
funding for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) as one of
its main concerns in the past and has taken several measures to
revive lending to those companies that form the backbone of the
euro zone economy.
But despite its efforts, the central bank's record low
interest rates are still not feeding through evenly to the real
economy in all corners of the currency bloc, keeping pressure on
the ECB to keep rates low for a prolonged period.
Data released on Thursday showed loans to the private sector
shrank by 2.0 percent from the same month a year ago, in line
with a Reuters poll of economists, which gave a mid-range
reading of -2.0 percent.
Euro zone M3 money supply - a more general measure of cash
in the economy - grew at an annual pace of 2.3 percent in
August, picking up slightly from 2.2 percent in July and above
the consensus forecast of 2.2 percent in a Reuters poll of
analysts.



Tallinn viies 07:46 GMT September 26, 2013
eurusd
Reply   
Reuters reporting that 1 bio eur 1,35 expiry helps contains spot today.

GVI Forex Blog 06:47 GMT September 26, 2013 Reply   
Observations/Insights*** - Asian equity markets are generally weaker with the exception of Japan and South Korea as investors are turning increasingly suspicious over the strength of economic recovery

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Shanghai Composite at 2-week lows as PBoC dials up the money market injection; Nikkei225 reverses losses on speculation of impending corporate tax cut - Source Tr

Hong Kong AceTrader 06:21 GMT September 26, 2013
Sept 26 : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/IDR
Reply   
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11565
26 Sep 2013 01:53GMT

Usd's breach of 11520 to 11580 (Tue) confirms LT
upmove fm 8455 has once again resumed n upside bias
is seen for further gain to 11590 n 11650 later.

Trade fm long side n only below 11495 signals a
temporary top is made, risks retracement twd 11430.

STRATEGY : Long at 11500

POSITION : Long at 11500

OBJECTIVE : 11590

STOP-LOSS : 11540

RES : 11590/11650/11700

SUP : 11520/11495/11430

Melbourne Qindex 06:15 GMT September 26, 2013
USDX : Critical Point 80.266

Sell usdx
Entry: Target: Stop:




USDX : Monthly Cycle Analysis


As shown in the distribution profile of the monthly cycle probability chart the market is pulling towards 79.734. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when USDX is below 81.739.


Qindex.com


USDX : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 05:36 GMT September 26, 2013
USDX : Critical Point 80.266
Reply   
usdx
Entry: Target: Stop:




USDX : Critical Point 80.266


The market is under pressure when it is rejected from the barrier of 80.427 // 80.497. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the critical point at 80.266. A barrier is expected at 80.046 // 80.092.


Qindex.com

Quantum Index Analysis

Hong Kong AceTrader 03:53 GMT September 26, 2013
Sept 26 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/IDR
Reply   
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11565
26 Sep 2013 01:53GMT

Usd's breach of 11520 to 11580 (Tue) confirms LT
upmove fm 8455 has once again resumed n upside bias
is seen for further gain to 11590 n 11650 later.

Trade fm long side n only below 11495 signals a
temporary top is made, risks retracement twd 11430.

STRATEGY : Long at 11500

POSITION : Long at 11500

OBJECTIVE : 11590

STOP-LOSS : 11540

RES : 11590/11650/11700

SUP : 11520/11495/11430

GVI Forex Blog 03:35 GMT September 26, 2013 Reply   
Stocks fell in the US as concern grew that Washington won’t reach a budget deal.

Morning Briefing : 26-Sep-2013 -0333 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:16 GMT September 26, 2013
Sept 26 : Dollar weakens broadly on U.S. government shutdown fears
Reply   
Market Review - 25/09/2013 22:19GMT

Dollar weakens broadly on U.S. government shutdown fears

The dollar weakened across the board on Wednesday, weighed down by worries about gridlock in Washington on the U.S. budget that could lead to a government shutdown next week.

Although the single currency briefly retreated to 1.3462 in Asian morning, euro rallied to 1.3520 in European morning on dollar's weakness. Later, despite a pullback to 1.3494 in New York morning, renewed buying lifted the pair and price rose to session high at 1.3538 at New York midday before easing.

The British pound dropped to session low at 1.5980 in Asian morning, however, dollar's broad-based weakness lifted the pair and cable rallied in European morning, helped by the release of better-than-expected U.K. CBI distributive trades and eventually hit an intra-day high at 1.6088 in New York session before trading sideways. U.K. CBI distributive trades (Sep) came in at 34, better than the forecast of 23.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback remained under pressure in Asia and weakened to an intra-day low at 98.38 in European morning on concerns over U.S. budget negotiations. Dollar later pared intra-day losses on renewed cross-selling of yen and staged a recovery to 98.82 in New York morning before falling near New York close.

In other news, ECB's Asmussen said 'ESM treaty will have to change before it can be used for bank recapitalization.'

On the data front, U.S. durable goods (Aug) came in at 0.1%, versus the forecast of 0.0%, previous reading was revised to -8.1%; U.S. durable goods ex. transport (Aug) came in at -0.1%, versus the forecast of 1.0%, previous reading was revised to -0.5%; U.S. ex. defense (Aug) came in at 0.5%, previous reading was revised to -7.5%. In a separate report, U.S. new home sales (Aug) came in at 0.421M and 7.9% m/m, better than the forecasts of 0.420M and 6.6% m/m respectively.

Data to be released on Thursday:

France consumer confidence, U.K. current account, GDP, U.S. GDP, PCE core, jobless claims, personal consumption and pending home sales.

HK [email protected] 01:40 GMT September 26, 2013
" Trade Ideas "



USD/CAD 1.0247 level should really be watched if can be broken.

kl shawn 00:56 GMT September 26, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

me too, usd bulls to suffer further IMHO

GVI Forex Blog 00:55 GMT September 26, 2013 Reply   
* Dollar pinned down as U.S. budget crisis looms * Dollar index not far off a 7-mth trough * Norwegian crown a notable loser after disappointing data

FOREX NEWS - Dollar hamstrung by budget impasse, direction lacking

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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