Syd 23:27 GMT September 27, 2013
Banks told to limit payout in case of crisis
Reply
The Reserve Bank of Australia has issued a blunt warning to banks to not aggressively increase dividend payouts as they get set to sign-off on record annual profits of more than $27 billion.
aud
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 21:36 GMT September 27, 2013
Commitment of Traders Report
Check EUR longs against spot vs. 20day avg crossovers. Not as obvious but it works on EUR shorts as well.
In other words, the relative value of 20 vs spot correlates well with positioning. So keep an eye on that 20-day moving average.
Mtl JP 21:15 GMT September 27, 2013
Fun at the close
if you referred to Dudley, he did have a Q&A in Syracuse
-
in any case ib, as traders it is not out job to be high-browed / indignant purveyors of morals and social justice. our job is to skim some posi-pips so we can provide for our mistress / paramour (or whatever toything of our choice)
avagood w/e
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 20:06 GMT September 27, 2013
Chart Points
Reply
UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data
for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.
Paris ib 19:58 GMT September 27, 2013
Fun at the close
He never takes questions.
Paris ib 19:37 GMT September 27, 2013
FED officials talk and talk
"The republic's in trouble, we lie about everything, lying has become the staple." Seymour Hersh
Paris ib 19:27 GMT September 27, 2013
FED officials talk and talk
JP one day I would like someone to explain to me WHY the FED has to have an inflation target. Why? The inflation statistics are a con job everywhere in the world anyhow. Inflation is whatever they say it is. Nothing to do with the real world. It's an absolute JOKE, a fraud, a lie. So don't go on about your stupid inflation target you bunch of fools and liars, it's just more smoke screen while you wreck the entire economy. And the regulators sit idly by letting deregulation and derivative trading balloon..... good grief. And now we have Obama. I mean please.
Another big lie.. Seymour Hersh
Mtl JP 19:14 GMT September 27, 2013
FED officials talk and talk
ib here is a plum for you from U.S. labor market not yet healthy -Fed's Dudley by way of rtrs
Dudley said, the Fed "recognizes that inflation persistently below 2 percent could pose risks to economic performance."
-
in other words, a dullution of the purchaising power of dollars by at least 2 official percent is ... well... you know the rest of it: jail-time for these counterfitters would be a too mild form of punishment
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:13 GMT September 27, 2013
test
Reply
test
New York CS 19:07 GMT September 27, 2013
Fun at the close
Reply
Obama scheduled to speak on fiscal issues at the bottom of the hour.
Beckenham SFH 19:06 GMT September 27, 2013
FED officials talk and talk
I doubt it-i think dow will close below it's current low on the day....
dc CB 19:03 GMT September 27, 2013
FED officials talk and talk
says something that Stox can't turn green in the face of that Big POMO injection today...but then there's still about an hour left, enough time for a Miracle.
GVI Forex 18:57 GMT September 27, 2013
Week Ahead
Reply
• US Budget discussions go to the wire, raising prospect of partial government shutdown
• Japan set to unveil further stimulus to offset consumption tax increase
• Global PMIs and US employment report due; UK PMIs forecast to soften a little
ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - US FISCAL DEADLINES LOOM
Paris ib 18:27 GMT September 27, 2013
FED officials talk and talk
How very comforting. You can't see it yet but the exodus from the U.S. Treasury market will dwarf anything you have ever seen. Who wants that stuff when we are dealing with incompetence, corruption and criminality which is endemic and pervasive. The Chinese have come from decades of communism, they can't think (at all, not rationally anyhow). Brainwashing does that, so they hold Treasuries. More fool them. USD international reserve currency? Yeah right.
Mtl JP 18:20 GMT September 27, 2013
FED officials talk and talk
btw... even IF the measure were not to pass the govt would NOT shut down. Only some small parts of it would.
Mtl JP 18:14 GMT September 27, 2013
FED officials talk and talk
comedy hour:
(MarketWatch) -- The Senate voted Friday to approve legislation to keep the government open until Nov. 15. The vote for final passage was 54 to 44. Earlier, the Senate voted to remove House Republican policy measures, including one that gutted President Barack Obama's signature health-care law. The bill must now return to the House for action. If the measure is not agreed to by Tuesday, the government will shut down.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 17:12 GMT September 27, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply
Prices in prime fixed income markets up strongly on a flight to safety late in Europe. Peripherals prices are mixed.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 16:43 GMT September 27, 2013
Calendar
Sorry fixed
Paris ib 16:30 GMT September 27, 2013
Calendar
John.... Europe Chicago ?
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 15:38 GMT September 27, 2013
Calendar
Reply
September 27 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, September 30.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- CPI, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- Personal Income, PCE, University of Michigan
Survey
- Far East: JP- Tankan, Industrial Output
- Europe: no major data
- North America: US- Chicago PMI.
jkt-aye 15:26 GMT September 27, 2013
SNB
Buy USDCHF
Entry: .9045 Target: .9145 Stop: .9015
expect the opening gap on monday ?
Mtl JP 15:22 GMT September 27, 2013
FED officials talk and talk
ib a reminder that you do have the option of signing off gv and/or any headline provider and trade off the price ticker's action
Paris ib 15:09 GMT September 27, 2013
FED officials talk and talk
Not another one !! Far out, where is the discipline? The coherent message ??? Why inflict these people on us. They are clueless, we know that, now please go away.
Mtl JP 15:07 GMT September 27, 2013
FED officials talk and talk
if it is any consolation dove Evans does not vote in 2014 BUT
dove and permanent voter Dudley yaks later this aft about "the economy"
Paris ib 15:01 GMT September 27, 2013
FED officials talk and talk
JP if the FED don't know what they're doing, don't know where the economy is going, don't understand markets.... (and clearly all of the above is true) then the best they can do to boost market confidence is to TO SHUT UP. All this public hand wringing is just embarrassing.
Mtl JP 14:58 GMT September 27, 2013
FED officials talk and talk
ib 11:37 r u against democracy ?
-
earlier Evans squawked something about may or may not taper
but claimed that his gang's "forward guidance boosted growth"
--
now I am reading headlines that IF the political clowns shut down govt for 3-4 weeks, that would be (horror of horrors) a headwind to US GDP to a tune of 1-1.5% !!!
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:55 GMT September 27, 2013
SNB
Tks Yank, appreciated
Swiss Yank 14:53 GMT September 27, 2013
SNB
Reply
SNB price checking here.....watch your risk...
singapore td 14:16 GMT September 27, 2013
United States
US data has run its course IMHO, cannot provide further drugs to revive the economy, should not be surprised to see usd generally getting weaker till year end.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:59 GMT September 27, 2013
United States
University of Michigan-Conference Board Sentiment Final U of M reading revised up from Mid-September. Well down from August.
Paris ib 13:54 GMT September 27, 2013
Good calls
Thanks Jay. FWIW EUR/AUD has a way to go IMVHO.
Paris ib 13:53 GMT September 27, 2013
Data
How much earlier Jay?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:51 GMT September 27, 2013
Data
Reply
Reminder
U of M consumer sentiment gets released early to subscribers.
Paris ib 13:44 GMT September 27, 2013
USD....
Reply
U.S. stocks and bonds BOTH falling. 30 year yields look particularly sad, back at 3.7%. Not a good sign for the USD.... more downside on it's way.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:36 GMT September 27, 2013
Good calls
Tallinn viies 21:26 GMT September 26, 2013
eurusd: Reply
I have been waiting and waiting and waiting to buy euros on small correction down after FOMC decision. first thought market will correct next day. then hoped after weekly options expired then euro definatelly shoul fly. still not.'
'couldnt wait anymore. bought today at 1,3478-. stop sell if daily euro close under 1,3430. I think euro will start to move higher after monday options cut off. talks about huge barrier at 1,3600 which still contains.
personally think that absolut minimum target up is 1,3690/3700. will see it next I reckon.
Paris ib 13:21 GMT September 26, 2013
The USD needs inflows: Reply
Buy EUR/AUD @ 1.44.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:34 GMT September 27, 2013
United States
U.S. CPI and PCE Deflator. Fed Targets PCE Deflator. Well below target,
ed kw 12:29 GMT September 27, 2013
Good calls
AUD/CHF D 104
ed kw 12:28 GMT September 27, 2013
Good calls
I DO SHORT THE PULLBACK TO
ed kw 12:27 GMT September 27, 2013
Good calls
NET CHANG;GBA/AUD UP 170---EUR/AUD UP137--G/N,154UP,,AUD/JPY D106
Mtl JP 12:21 GMT September 27, 2013
Good calls
euro may be somewhat higher atm but is still inside the 1.3460 - 1.3570 range. ECB on deck with its rate decision next week.
ed kw 12:11 GMT September 27, 2013
Good calls
JAY SORRY YOU MIST THE GOLD CALL ?
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:10 GMT September 27, 2013
United States
Reply
HEADS-UP: Data (top of forum)
EURUSD= 1.3535
GBPUSD= 1.6110
USDJPY= 98.47
US 10-yr= 2.64%
DE 10-yr= 1.80%
GB 10-yr= 2.73%
(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)
Direct links to primary data sources
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:02 GMT September 27, 2013
Good calls
Reply
Credit to the following calls on the FF
Ib -- buying EURAUD at 1.4400
Tallin -- buying EURUSD at 1,3478
Paris ib 11:38 GMT September 27, 2013
Global Markets News
JP I would say corrupt and arrogant.... competent? Let's see how this all pans out. I'm thinking it ends BADLY.
Paris ib 11:37 GMT September 27, 2013
FED officials talk and talk
Reply
There needs to be some discipline at the FED. We can't have a situation where every doofas gets to comment. Every two minutes we are getting another view from some nobody at the FED, none of these views seem to be have been vetted by anybody and the increase in market confusion is not helping international confidence in the U.S. administration. Another USD negative, regardless of what these morons are saying (hawks or doves). It don't matter - while they look rudderless - it just adds to USD negativity.
Mtl JP 11:37 GMT September 27, 2013
Global Markets News
ib 11:26 I think the us admin is competent ... at being corrupt
key is to trade off them. preferably profitably
Paris ib 11:26 GMT September 27, 2013
Global Markets News
JP.... anything said by anyone ever associated with George Soros should be taken with a giant bucket of salt. Remember Soros was the guy talking about the avalanche upwards in USD/JPY. Didn't happen, but it surely would be in the interests of the U.S. if it did. The much hoped for exodus of Japanese savings from Japan - straight into the arms of the U.S. Treasury market would be very, very welcome in some quarters. These guys are robots (or zombies if you prefer): they stick with the programme even as it is falling apart. And they keep trying to drum up capital flows to...... the U.S. Treasury market. Good luck with that guys while you have this incompetent and corrupt U.S. administration (at every level).
London Misha 11:25 GMT September 27, 2013
Observations
Reply
EURUSD - More confusion as Bearish Harami follows Key Reversal Up follows a Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart!
USDJPY - Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart. Caution, KRs are suspect on JPY. Still closes below recent Downtrend.
GBPUSD - Possible Bearish Dark Cloud Cover on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - More confusion as small Bullish Harami after Key Reversal Down after Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart. Tests again 2011-to-date H+S Neckline Top (0.9082).
EURGBP - 2nd (lower) indecisive Spinning Top on Daily Chart!
AUDUSD - Indecisive Spinning Top follows on to Bearish Harami on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - 3rd White Soldier as follow on to Bullish Harami on Daily Chart.
USDBRL - Follow on to Open & Close Long White Marubozo on Daily Chart!
Mtl JP 11:21 GMT September 27, 2013
Global Markets News
and for those trading on longer than 5 min chart:
Soros Adviser Turned Lawmaker Sees Crisis by 2020: Japan Credit - bbrg
Takeshi Fujimaki, a former adviser to billionaire George Soros and now a member of Japan’s upper house of parliament, said a fiscal crisis in Asia’s second-biggest economy is inevitable and neither a higher sales tax nor the 2020 Olympics will be able to stop it. .../..
hk ab 11:18 GMT September 27, 2013
Global Markets News
I think they should care about US first rather.....
Mtl JP 10:37 GMT September 27, 2013
Impact of an Italian downgrade
Royal Mail ... going public Oct. 11, priced at 260 pence to 330 pence a share
53 percent market share in the U.K. parcel delivery business
reported revenue of about 9.1 billion pounds in fiscal 2013
reported operating profit, after some costs, 440 million pounds
150,000 payroll head count
-
buy or sell ?
Paris ib 10:15 GMT September 27, 2013
Impact of an Italian downgrade
I merely think the Italian downgrade will have minimal impact on EUR/USD. So not a lot of downside. Upside won't be exponential either as stock markets sell off. Forex moves are being 'contained' (lots of fun, not). I'm expecting more action on the crosses. Stock markets could be considerably more interesting IMVHO.
Sydney amg 10:02 GMT September 27, 2013
Impact of an Italian downgrade
IB...Tell this clown what he wants to hear so he can disappear for a few months...
EURO to 160
AUD to 120
There you are..feel better now?.. now go back and hide under your rock for a few months.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:37 GMT September 27, 2013
Japanese CPI data higher than expected. Key U.S. data due
Reply
- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: US- Personal Income,
PCE, University of Michigan Survey
- Latest Japanese CPI data saw
prices increasing again, but some worry that price increases are coming
from costs rather than higher cages. Rising costs have been coming from
the earthquake and nuclear power plants disaster.
See the FOREX FORUM
for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- On Friday, the University of
Michigan
Sentiment Survey is released among other items. U.S. jobless claims
released on Thursday was stronger than anticipated.
- Janet
Yellen appears to be the likely candidate to take Bernanke's job as Fed
Chair in late January. Her nomination
could come as early as this week or next. She should be a safe
appointment.
- For additional key items and
more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic
Calendar . See the FOREX FORUM
for latest key data and charts as they are released.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3338
|
JGB
0.69% -1bp
|
Asia
Close Mixed
|
USDJPY
99.19
|
Bund
1.82% -1bp
|
Europe
Lower
|
EURJPY
132.31
|
U.S.
2.65% +1 bp
|
North
America: Mixed
|
GVI Forex Blog 09:37 GMT September 27, 2013
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Personal Income, PCE, University of Michigan Survey
Latest Japanese CPI data saw prices increasing again, but some worry that price increases are coming from costs rather than higher cages. Rising costs have been coming from the earthquake and nuclear power plants disaster. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released. .
Japanese CPI data higher than expected. Key U.S. data due
Paris ib 09:31 GMT September 27, 2013
Impact of an Italian downgrade
Reply
Italian downgrade supposedly planned for after closing today. That is unlikely to prevent the ongoing USD slide (against pretty much everything - OK I'll give you the AUD - but then that's part of the wider collapse of the Anglo system). At present faith in the U.S. administration (fiscal, monetary, foreign) policy is at an all time low and will negatively impact the USD's status as a reserve currency. The chickens are coming home to roost. Weakness is most likely to show in the U.S. stock market (currently at or near all time highs) - and all global stock markets - and this should save the bond market for the time being. Once that gets out of the way, U.S. bond selling can start up again. First things first: the USD, then stocks, then when things settle (not before) the U.S. bond market gets sold off again. Seat belts people. Stay safe.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:04 GMT September 27, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply
Early in Europe, prices in prime fixed income markets are mixed waiting for U.S. data. Prices in periphery are mixed.
Amman wfakhoury 08:52 GMT September 27, 2013
EURJPY 133.10
Reply
133.10 will be reached again...sell and add sell if rise after coming data
Lahore FM 08:48 GMT September 27, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Buy OTHER
Entry: 1.2558 Target: 1.29 Stop: 1.2480
BIG USD day brewing up and nearly ready to serve,marked strength for usd to be seen on nzdusd audusd and usdcad along with usdsgd.
long on usdsgd now.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:37 GMT September 27, 2013
Japan
JA CPI...inflation above estimates.
Hong Kong AceTrader 08:26 GMT September 27, 2013
Sept 26 : Daily Market Outlook on Major GBP/USD
Reply
DAILY GBP/USD OUTLOOK - 1.6092
27 Sep 2013 07:04GMT
Cable's intra-day spike to 1.6133 after media
report of hawkish comments by BoE's Carney suggests
correction fm last Wed's 8-month peak at 1.6163 has
ended at 1.5955 n abv said res wud extend MT upmove
fm 1.4814 to 1.6188, then twd 1.6255 next week.
Hold long for 1.6160 1st n only below 1.6043 pro
longs choppy consolidation, risks 1.5999/04.
STRATEGY : Hold long
POSITION : Long at 1.6090
OBJECTIVE : 1.6160
STOP-LOSS : 1.6055
RES : 1.6163/1.6188/1.6255
SUP : 1.6043/1.5999/1.5955
Hong Kong AceTrader 03:35 GMT September 27, 2013
Sept 27 : Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/SGD
Reply
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2553
27 Sep 2013 00:03GMT
Y'day's rebound fm 1.2523 signals pullback fm
Wed's 1.2573 high has edned n upmove fm last Thur's
3-mth low at 1.2422 wud head to 1.2600/10 'later'.
Hold long for this move n only a daily close be-
low 1.2515 (38.2% r) risks weakness to 1.2479.
STRATEGY : Long at 1.2545
POSITION : Long at 1.2545
OBJECTIVE : 1.2600
STOP-LOSS : 1.2520
RES : 1.2584/1.2610/1.2647
SUP : 1.2523/1.2496/1.2479
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:24 GMT September 27, 2013
Sept 27 : Dollar rises against other major currencies on upbeat U.S. data
Reply
Market Review - 26/09/2013 22:18GMT
Dollar rises against other major currencies on upbeat U.S. data
The greenback strengthened against majority of its peers on Thursday after data showed jobless claims dropped last week to a near 6-year low, this upbeat data increased speculation of the Federal Reserve will strat tapering its bond purchases at its October or December FOMC meeting.
The single currency remained under pressure in Asia and dropped to 1.3486 in European morning before trading sideways, euro staged a recovery to 1.3511 in New York morning. However, price met renewed selling there and later fell to session low of 1.3472 at New York midday.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback rallied in Asian morning to 99.11 on speculation of Japan's government will cut corporate taxes. However, price pared intra-day gains and retreated to 98.51 in European morning before rising to session high at 99.14 in New York morning, helped by the release of better-than-expected U.S. GDP data, jobless claims and pending home sales.
U.S. GDP annualised (Q2 final) came in at 2.5% versus the forecast of 2.6%. U.S. jobless claims came in at 305K versus the forecast of 325K, previous reading was revised to 310K. In a separate report, U.S. pending home sales (Aug) came in at -1.6% month/month, worse than the forecast of -1.0% m/m, previous reading was revised to -1.4% month/month.
The British pound edged higher to session high at 1.6096 in early European morning, however, cabled tumbled after release of trade data which showed deficits widened in Q2 and U.K. annual GDP showed economic growth was less than early estimate, damping optimism the U.K. recovery is gathering momentum. Price continued to drop in New York morning after the release of U.S. economic data to an intra-day low at 1.5999 (Reuters) before staging a short-covering rebound to 1.6043 in New York afternoon.
In other news, ECB's Constancio says 'easy for ECB to absorb excess liquidity in financial system, when desired; will keep key interest rates stable or lower for extended period of time; if there is upward pressure on short-term market rates, we still have tools to react.'
Data to be released on Friday :
Japan national CPI and Tokyo CPI, U.K. nationwide house prices, Gfk consumer confidence, business barometer, France GDP, Swiss KOF leading indicator, EU business climate, economic sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI and HICP, U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE , and University of Michigan consumer confidence.
HK [email protected] 00:36 GMT September 27, 2013
USD/CAD long term!!! 0.7350 good for bankers.
Reply
Buy CAD and go swimming diving or golfing.
YES: 0.7350
I am notorious for making long term accurate predictions:)
So sudden big price drops are very possible on the way.
Any objections are welcomed.
So bankers should get themselves lot of sh!t-loads of Cad$.
COT NET EUR Positions. In week ending Tuesday, 
COT JPY vs USD Positions. In week ended Tuesday, JPY shorts and longs down. Market short JPY. Spot below 20-day avg.
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