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Forex Forum Archive for 09/30/2013

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tallinn viies 22:28 GMT September 30, 2013
eurusd
Reply   
1,3670 here we come. after shut- down people will react.
moved euro stop to 1,3450 just in case.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 21:59 GMT September 30, 2013
Calendar
Reply   


September 30 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, October 1. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- Tankan, AU- RBA, DE- Unemployment, DE/FR/EZ/GB- Mfg PMI, EZ- Unemolyment, US- Mfg PMIs

  • Far East: CN- Holiday, JP- Tankan, AU- trade, RBA
  • Europe: DE- Unemployment, DE/FR/EZ/GB- Mfg PMI, EZ- Unemolyment
  • North America: US- Mfg PMIs, Construction Spending, API Energy


dc CB 21:34 GMT September 30, 2013
Global Markets News

just released letter to Attorney General Eric Holder w/r/t JPMorgan

Dear Mr. Attorney General:

News reports indicate that you personally met last Thursday with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon in the course of settlement talks between JPMorgan Chase and the Department of Justice (DOJ). Your meeting with Mr. Dimon reportedly centered on multiple investigations into JPMorgan's issuance of mortgage-backed securities in the lead-up to the financial crisis. These discussions are taking place while DOJ is also investigating the bank's actions related to the $6 billion "London Whale" trading losses, which the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations independently investigated.

Your personal meeting with the CEO of the corporate target of a major criminal investigation, at the request of the CEO, while negotiations on a global settlement agreement are pending, is highly unusual and, under the circumstances that the meeting occurred, gives rise to concern. It is noteworthy that at the same time the bank is facing a litany of regulatory woes that carry hefty fines and potential liability in private civil suits, individuals within JPMorgan and other similarly culpable financial institutions have escaped accountability.......................

Sincerely,

John McCain
Ranking Member
Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations

DOJ Has Cooperating Witness In JPMorgan Case

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 20:21 GMT September 30, 2013
Busy Tuesday ahead. Gov't shut down looms
Reply   

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- Tankan, AU- RBA, DE- Unemployment, DE/FR/EZ/GB- Mfg PMI, EZ- Unemolyment, US- Mfg PMIs

  • The immediate focus in the U.S. is on the budget impasse. The expiring budget runs out at the end of the day Monday.  A temporary government shutdown is likely if no agreement is reached. Despite much hand-wringing, this whole process is charade  with both sides only  playing for political advantage.

  • The first week of the month is usually an active one for central bank meetings. The Reserve Bank of Australia decision is due early on Tuesday.  No rate change is expected. The European Central Bank decision will be announced on Wednesday from Paris and the latest BOJ decision is due on Friday.

  • PMI data from both Japan and China (HSBC) were both weaker than expected.  German retail sales data,after revisions were better than expected for August.

  • The week ahead will be especially heavy on the data front. The early part of the week will see a slew of final PMI reports for September, plus the quarterly Japanese Tankan Survey. The markets watch the PMI reports closely even though they are not as good predictors of key economies as some might hope.  Wednesday through Friday will see a number of U.S. employment reports. Street estimates currently are for a lackluster 180K increase in U.S. jobs in the month.   

  • Janet Yellen appears to be the likely candidate to take Bernanke's job as Fed Chair in late January. Her nomination could come as early as this week or next. She should be a safe appointment.

  • For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
EURUSD 1.3370
JGB 0.69% 0bp
Asia Close Lower
USDJPY 99.14
Bund 1.78% 0bp
Europe Lower
EURJPY 132.79
U.S. 2.62% 0 bp
North America: Lower

GVI Forex Blog 20:20 GMT September 30, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- Tankan, AU- RBA, DE- Unemployment, DE/FR/EZ/GB- Mfg PMI, EZ- Unemolyment, US- Mfg PMIs The immediate focus in the U.S. is on the budget impasse. The expiring budget runs out at the end of the day Monday. A temporary government shutdown is likely if no agreement is reached. Despite much hand-wringing, this whole process is charade with both sides only playing for political advantage.

Busy Tuesday ahead. Gov't shut down looms

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 20:18 GMT September 30, 2013
United States
Reply   
OBAMA TO DELIVER STATEMENT AT 4:45PM

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:46 GMT September 30, 2013
Chart Points

Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


dc CB 19:43 GMT September 30, 2013
POMO Oct Sched
Reply   
ZH comment:
The Government May Shut Down, But These 18 October POMOs Will Proceed Come censored Or Selective Default
These will take place regardless of anything else that may happen to the government, which perhaps better than anything else, shows who is truly in control of this country and on whose behalf they operate.

NY Fed POMO Sched

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:36 GMT September 30, 2013
Chart Points
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex Blog 19:18 GMT September 30, 2013 Reply   
US fiscal issues continued to dominate markets. A partial government shutdown will occur unless spending plans are agreed by midnight. This kept equity markets in risk averse mode - the S&P500 currently down 0.3% to a three-week low - while US interest rates bounced slightly following a stronger Chicago manufacturing activity report. The CRB commodities index is currently down 0.5%.

NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

Saar KaL 18:06 GMT September 30, 2013
Forky

will start 1.6220 to 1.6250 shorts Cable
for 1.6040


GBPJPY shorts here for 157.5

SHorts EURJPY for 131.6

Livingston nh 17:53 GMT September 30, 2013
Global Markets News

Ha ha - why back off?? - that's my idea of perfect journalism -- when you can PO everybody -- fair and balanced means both eyes get poked

dc CB 17:43 GMT September 30, 2013
Global Markets News

speaking if Clinton(s).
Take a minute to read this.


Charles Ferguson

Director, Wall Street documentary 'Inside Job'; Author, 'Predator Nation'

Why I Am Cancelling My Documentary on Hillary Clinton

dc CB 17:35 GMT September 30, 2013
Global Markets News


OBAMA SAYS EVERYONE MUST SIT DOWN AND NEGOTIATE IN GOOD FAITH, CAN'T HAVE TALKS UNDER RISK OF POTENTIAL U.S. DEBT DEFAULT
OBAMA SAYS HE IS NOT RESIGNED TO A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN TAKING PLACE
OBAMA SAYS U.S. DOLLAR IS RESERVE CURRENCY OF THE WORLD, "WE DON'T MESS WITH THAT
OBAMA SAYS EXPECTS TO SPEAK TO CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS MONDAY, TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY

In other words, Obama blinked (for the n-th time in what has not been a good year for presidential leverage). And to think it took less than a 1% drop in the S&P (and a rather stubborn Republican party) to get "diplomacy" going...

With Just Hours To Go, Obama Suddenly In A Negotiating Mood

Livingston nh 17:33 GMT September 30, 2013
Global Markets News

Clinton shot that continuing resolution proposal down -- no we find if no negotiation means NO negotiation

dc CB 17:23 GMT September 30, 2013
Global Markets News

Congress and their aides closed their shorts on the open this AM.
And flipped to Long. When you control the headlines.....

GVI Forex 17:21 GMT September 30, 2013
Global Markets News

Reports indicate Republicans are looking to propose a one week stopgap bill to keep the government running for another week.

Livingston nh 16:26 GMT September 30, 2013
Global Markets News

Despite the media "hair on fire" hysteria about a shut down the bond market past few days has been very stable -- I don't think ratings agencies are going to be on the downgrade soapbox this year

Livingston nh 15:58 GMT September 30, 2013
Global Markets News

Potential shutdown is more likely than last time because the last shutdown was merely political differences - the current crop of objections is based on ideology so there is basically no compromise available - that's the bad news // the good news is that Speaker Gingrich was in on the last shutdown so the Republican Party solidarity was pretty good - Speaker Boehner won't be so accommodative to the ideologues if he gets heat from the House leadership

GVI Forex 15:43 GMT September 30, 2013
Global Markets News
Reply   
- In the US, the Senate is scheduled to convene at 14:00ET and Majority Leader Reid is expected to move quickly to vote on House CR funding bill. A shutdown remains very possible
TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Markets Rattled by Political Crisis on Both Sides of the Atlantic

GVI Forex Blog 15:43 GMT September 30, 2013 Reply   
- In the US, the Senate is scheduled to convene at 14:00ET and Majority Leader Reid is expected to move quickly to vote on House CR funding bill. A shutdown remains very possible

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Markets Rattled by Political Crisis on Both Sides of the Atlantic

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 15:15 GMT September 30, 2013
Calendar
Reply   


September 30 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, October 1. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- Tankan, AU- RBA, DE- Unemployment, DE/FR/EZ/GB- Mfg PMI, EZ- Unemolyment, US- Mfg PMIs

  • Far East: CN- Holiday, JP- Tankan, AU- trade, RBA
  • Europe: DE- Unemployment, DE/FR/EZ/GB- Mfg PMI, EZ- Unemolyment
  • North America: US- Mfg PMIs, Construction Spending, API Energy


hk ab 14:45 GMT September 30, 2013
yen
Reply   
BOJ has been trying very hard to slow down the retreat of u/j....

buying in every US session?

Saar KaL 14:04 GMT September 30, 2013
Forky

God help you guys
I aint gonna be around for dat...
so good luck dudes
He should be in any moment now...LOL
Silence of da Lamb
Jesus!!

singapore td 14:04 GMT September 30, 2013
United States

clearly market has been ignoring good US data for many months, good US data=sell usd

Saar KaL 14:02 GMT September 30, 2013
Forky
Reply   
will be weird today for sure!!

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:47 GMT September 30, 2013
United States

Chicago PMI beats estimates.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:45 GMT September 30, 2013
United States
Reply   




ALERT
SEPTEMBER 2013 U.S. Chicago PMI
55.7 vs. 53.0 exp. vs. 52.3 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer
Direct links to primary data sources

Saar KaL 13:33 GMT September 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Gold
should north a Little to 1350 or near

Saar KaL 13:14 GMT September 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

(censored) EURJPY
132.5
tgt 131.8 to 131.5 is cool

Saar KaL 13:05 GMT September 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

if you wanna Long Cable us session
1.6120 to 1.6100 is ok

Saar KaL 12:58 GMT September 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Cable shorts
US Session
1.6200 to 1.6240
tgt 1.6060

Saar KaL 12:55 GMT September 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

short eurgbp
0.8380 tgt 0.8320

GVI Forex 12:44 GMT September 30, 2013
eurusd

Catalyst for EUR buying appears to be political news

9/30/2013 8:38:55 AM
(IT) As many as 20 PDL Senators may form a breakaway party unless Berlusconi softens his stance against the Letta govt - press

**NOTE: Berlusconi's PDL party hold 98 Senate seats out of the 315 total. Berlusconi himself has given some indication in recent weeks that he may break away from the PDL center-right coalition to reform his old party.

- Source: TradetheNews.com TTN: Live News Special Offer

Saar KaL 12:43 GMT September 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

i doubt eurusd can go any higher then this today

Saar KaL 12:33 GMT September 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

eurcad longs from 1.3880 and with every 6 pips
tgt 1.4040

Saar KaL 12:25 GMT September 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

AUDUSD Shorts
from 0.9330
with every 5 pips add

Saar KaL 12:22 GMT September 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Longing USDCAD Below 1.0300
every 5 pips
tgt 1.034

London Misha 12:08 GMT September 30, 2013
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Bullish Piercing Line Pattern but also a possible Double Top on Daily Chart. Possible Tweezer Top on Weekly Chart.
USDJPY - Bearish Engulfing Pattern on Daily Chart & a gap down so far today. Tests down to Fib supports 97.65 & 97.56.
GBPUSD - Bullish Engulfing pattern on Daily Chart. Tests new high since Feb.
USDCHF - Possible Bearish Engulfing Pattern on Daily Chart. 1st close below Neckline & last 9 days make a possible Halfway Hesitation.
EURGBP - Bearish Dark Cloud Cover on Weekly Chart. New low for 2013!
AUDUSD - Bearish Harami on Weekly Chart.
USDINR - Bullish Harami on Weekly Chart. Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart. Looks like a final Exhaustion Gap on the recent Bear Move.
USDZAR - 4th White Soldier as follows on to Bullish Harami on Daily Chart. 1st close over 50% Fib 10.0053.
USDBRL - 3rd White Soldier on Daily Chart & possible Bullish Harami on Weekly Chart.


Saar KaL 11:55 GMT September 30, 2013
eurusd

Viies
With you on that Possible 1.37
will buy in Asia around 1.3450 to 1.3400

Tallinn viies 11:45 GMT September 30, 2013
eurusd
Reply   
talks 500 MEUR 1,3500 expiry today.
after that I expect euro to move higher. 1,3710 will be tested soon

Saar KaL 11:33 GMT September 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Cable wants 1.6179 from here into usa MKT
Long GBPJPY tgt 158.2

Saar KaL 11:29 GMT September 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

over the next 12 hrs
for a target of 36 hrs

USDCAD Buying 1.0300 to 1.0267
TGT 1.0320 to 1.0340

GVI Forex 10:10 GMT September 30, 2013
Global Markets News
Reply   
Italy/Germany 10-yr yield spread hits widest level since late June
-European equities volatility rises ahead of key event risks for the week (PMI data, monthly US jobs report, Japan Tankan Survey and Sales tax announcement, ECB decision, Italy confidence vote)

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Equity markets decline amid political concerns related to the US and Italy

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 10:03 GMT September 30, 2013
Japan and China PMIs weak. US government shut-down looms
Reply   

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Chicago PMI

  • The immediate focus in the U.S. is on the budget impasse. The budget runs out at the end of the day today.  A temporary government shutdown is likely if no agreement is reached. Despite all the hand-wringing, this whole process is charade  with both sides playing for a political advantage.

  • PMI data from both Japan and China (HSBC) were both weaker than expected.  German retail sales data,after revisions were better than expected for August.

  • The week ahead will be especially heavy on the data front. The early part of the week will see a slew of final PMI reports for September, plus the quarterly Japanese Tankan Survey. The markets watch the PMI reports closely even though they are not as good predictors of key economies as some might hope. Wednesday through Friday will see a number of U.S. employment reports. Street estimates currently are for a lackluster 180K increase in U.S. jobs in the month.   

  • Janet Yellen appears to be the likely candidate to take Bernanke's job as Fed Chair in late January. Her nomination could come as early as this week or next. She should be a safe appointment.

  • For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
EURUSD 1.3338
JGB 0.69% 0bp
Asia Close Lower
USDJPY 99.19
Bund 1.76% -2bp
Europe Lower
EURJPY 132.31
U.S. 2.61% -1 bp
North America: Lower

GVI Forex Blog 10:02 GMT September 30, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Chicago PMI The immediate focus in the U.S. is on the budget impasse. The budget runs out at the end of the day today. A temporary government shutdown is likely if no agreement is reached. Despite all the hand-wringing, this whole process is charade with both sides playing for a political advantage.

Japan and China PMIs weak. US government shut-down looms

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:34 GMT September 30, 2013
Germany
Reply   


EARLIER DATA
AUGUST 2013 German Real Retail Sales
mm: +0.50% vs. +0.80% exp. vs. -0.50% (r -0.2%) prev.
yy: +0.30% vs. +0.90% exp. vs. +2.30% (r +2.90%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:03 GMT September 30, 2013
Eurozone



EZ flash HICP (CPI). Less than expected. Now well below ECB target of "just below 2.0%". Provides policy flexibility to ECB.


GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:01 GMT September 30, 2013
Eurozone
Reply   


ALERT
SEPTEMBER 2013 flash HICP (CPI)
Headline
yy: +1.10% vs. +1.20% exp. vs. +1.30% prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:58 GMT September 30, 2013
China




Earlier: HSBC final PMI weaker than expected...

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:56 GMT September 30, 2013
Japan



Japanese PMI. weaker...

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:45 GMT September 30, 2013
China
Reply   


EARLIER DATA
SEPTEMBER 2013 China final HSBC PMI
HSBC: 50.2 vs. 50.9 exp. vs. 50.1 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:36 GMT September 30, 2013
Japan
Reply   


EARLIER DATA
SEPTEMBER 2013 Japan PMI
52.5 vs. n/a exp. vs. 52.2 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:32 GMT September 30, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply   
Early in Europe, prices in prime fixed income markets have been drifting higher as equities fall. Peripheral bond prices are mixed.


Saar KaL 08:14 GMT September 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

EURUSD I guess from around here to 1.36 next 3 days
then bearish till 1.325

Belgrade TD 08:01 GMT September 30, 2013
Daily TA trade

Belgrade TD 18:24 GMT September 18, 2013
... Sold Sp500 (ES) ~ 1714 ... T/S later ...
///
out 1/4 ~1704 ... reducing risk ... out another 1/4 ~1693 ... out another 1/4 ~ 1694 ... for last 1/4 set stop at 1702 ...
///
last 1/4 out ~ 1673 ...

Saar KaL 07:43 GMT September 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

gold a sell above 1340...all week
till < 1300

Hong Kong AceTrader 07:25 GMT September 30, 2013
Sept 30 : Daily outlook on Minors & Crosses NZD/USD
Reply   
DAILY NZD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.8280
30 Sep 2013 01:38GMT

Fri's retreat fm 0.8320 to 0.8248 suggests reco-
very fm last Wed's 0.8217 low has ended n re-test
of said sup is seen, break wud extend twd 0.8206.

Sell on pullback with stop as indicated n only
abv 0.8320 risks stronger retracement to 0.8341.

STRATEGY : Short at 0.8280

POSITION : Short at 0.8280

OBJECTIVE : 0.8220

STOP-LOSS : 0.8310

RES : 0.8320/0.8341/0.8390

Saar KaL 06:46 GMT September 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

eurusd expecting 1.36 as early as wed this week

Saar KaL 06:39 GMT September 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Planning a big trade on cable over the next week

SHort from 1.6250 to 1.6400
tgt 1.4600
all year position

GVI Forex Blog 05:38 GMT September 30, 2013 Reply   
- Political standoff in Washington enters its decisive 24 hours; House of Reps approve Republican measure to delay implementation of Obamacare by one year; Legislation - already not expected to get th

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Shanghai enters holiday week on a positive note after launch of free trade zone; US braces for looming govt shutdown***Observations/Insights*** - Source TradeThe

GVI Forex Blog 03:59 GMT September 30, 2013 Reply   
Market anticipates a US government shutdown

Morning Briefing : 30-Sep-2013 -0356 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:43 GMT September 30, 2013
Sept 30 : Daily outlook on Asian Exotic - USD/SGD
Reply   
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2570
29 Sep 2013 23:44GMT

Present breach of last Wed's high at 1.2573 sug-
gests rise fm Sep's 3-mth low at 1.2422 wud extend
to 1.2584, then 1.2610 after consolidation.

Hold long for this move n only a daily close
below 1.2523 signals top is made, risks 1.2495/98.

STRATEGY : Long at 1.2545

POSITION : Long at 1.2545

OBJECTIVE : 1.2600

STOP-LOSS : 1.2550

RES : 1.2584/1.2610/1.2647

SUP : 1.2523/1.2496/1.2479

Syd 02:07 GMT September 30, 2013
Fitch downgrades SA's credit rating
Reply   
Ratings agency Fitch has downgraded its credit rating for South Australia, blaming the state's deteriorating budget and debt position.

Fitch has cut the state's rating from AA+ to AA.

In a statement, the ratings agency says while the State Government is starting to rebuild its financial position, it does not expect significant recovery for at least another three years.

Fitch warns the rating could be lowered further if the state's operating margin worsens.

Fitch warns the rating could be lowered further if the state's operating margin worsens.

tokyo ginko 01:01 GMT September 30, 2013
Fast money: oil going for 103 break

cash out oil @ 101.48......

GVI Forex 00:51 GMT September 30, 2013
Forex News
Reply   
* Political crisis in Italy weighs heavily on euro

* Euro hits three-week low vs yen, 3-month lows vs Swiss franc

* Dollar falls to one-month low on yen as U.S. shutdown deadline looms

FOREX NEWS - Euro and dollar hit by political drama; yen, Swiss franc up

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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