GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:01 GMT January 7, 2014
2014 Forex and Global Markets Survey
2014 Forex and Global Markets Survey
Welcome to the annual Forex and Global Markets Survey
Click on the following link to take part in our survey.
2014 Forex and Global Markets Survey
Once you complete this short survey, send me an EMAIL to get my must read report:
How to Avoid the Forex Death Spiral
Your participation will be kept strictly confidential. Please contact me with any questions or comments.
GVI Forex john 21:43 GMT January 7, 2014
U.S. API Inventories
Reply
ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: -7.310 vs. -0.500 exp vs. -7.000 prev.
Gasoline: +5.600 vs. +2.000 exp vs. +0.840 prev.
Distillates: +5.170 vs. +1.500 exp vs. +5.040 prev.
Cap/Util: vs. n/a exp vs. 92.4% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
NY JM 21:13 GMT January 7, 2014
EUR/USD
How about 1.32-1.38 or 1.34-1.38?
bali sja 20:56 GMT January 7, 2014
EUR/USD
as expected, market is playing 1.35-1.42 range this quarter, should see it trading higher soon, won't stay long in the 1.35 handle, any dips under 1.36 is a golden opportunity to load if one is trading this idea, good luck good trades.
Jerusalem KB 20:15 GMT January 7, 2014
Pipshunter
Buy USDJPY
Entry: 104.50 Target: 105.20-106.20 Stop: 103.90
BOUGHT NOW
Jerusalem KB 20:11 GMT January 7, 2014
Pipshunter
Buy GBPCHF
Entry: 1.4877 Target: 1.5065-1.5165 Stop: 1.4770
BUY LIMIT ORDER
Livingston nh 20:01 GMT January 7, 2014
NFP
Reply
Next three days should see market focus shift to US employment stats - ADP, claims and Dec employment - we may be back to good news is bad news
GVI Forex john 19:58 GMT January 7, 2014
German jobs data better.Yellen OK for Fed. ADP jobs Wed
Reply
Spot
|
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3617
|
1.3705
|
U.S.
2.94% -2bp
|
North
America: Higher
|
EURJPY
142.29
|
142.74
|
Bund
1.89% -2bp
|
DAX:
Higher
|
GBPUSD
1.6404
|
1.6393
|
GILT
2.96% -1bp
|
FTSE:
Higher
|
USDJPY
104.49
|
104.16
|
JGB
0.70% -3.bp |
Far
East
Close: Higher
|
HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: CN- GDP, Trade, EZ- Retail Sales, DE- Factory Orders, ADP
Private Jobs, 10-yr Action
- German December employment data were stronger than
expected. See the FOREX FORUM
for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- As expected, Fed Vice-Chair Yellen was approved, as
expected to be the next head of the central bank on February 1. With
policy now data dependent, it is important that recent U.S..
economic data might be turning mixed. See the FOREX FORUM
for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- This week features central bank decisions by the Bank of
England and the ECB. No policy changes had been expected before
sub-1.00% EZ flash CPI data. The mandate of the ECB is to target
infltion on the up and downside.
- Monthly U,S.jobs data are set for Friday..For additional
key items and more detail (dates, times,
data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic
Calendar. See the FOREX FORUM
for latest key data and charts as they are released.
GVI Forex Blog 19:57 GMT January 7, 2014
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN- GDP, Trade, EZ- Retail Sales, DE- Factory Orders, ADP Private Jobs, 10-yr Action
German December employment data were stronger than expected. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
German jobs data better.Yellen OK for Fed. ADP jobs Wed
Jerusalem KB 19:25 GMT January 7, 2014
DOW JONES
Buy OTHER
Entry: 16510 Target: 16710--17000 Stop: 16410
buy stop on break of new high
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:10 GMT January 7, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply
Sentiment was mainly positive overnight, data and Fedspeak contributing. Strong German retail sales and a fall in unemployment helped the Eurostoxx 50 close up 1.4% and rubbed off on the S&P500 which is currently up 0.6%. Also helping was
NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR
GVI Forex Blog 19:08 GMT January 7, 2014
Reply
January 7, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, January 8. Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CN- GDP, Trade, EZ- Retail Sales, DE- Factory Orders, ADP Private Jobs, 10-yr Action
Far East: CN- GDP, Trade.
Europe: EZ- Retail Sales, Unemployment, DE- Factory Orders.
North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Private Jobs, Weekly Crude, Fed Minutes, 10-yr Action.
GVI Forex Data Outlook for January 8, 2014
GVI Forex john 19:05 GMT January 7, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply
January 7, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, January 8.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CN- GDP, Trade, EZ- Retail Sales, DE- Factory Orders, ADP Private Jobs, 10-yr
Action
- Far East: CN- GDP, Trade.
- Europe: EZ- Retail Sales, Unemployment, DE- Factory Orders.
- North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Private Jobs, Weekly Crude, Fed Minutes, 10-yr Action.
Saar KaL 18:13 GMT January 7, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level
EURUSD
Exp------Exp 1 month
1.3727 1.4038
Its a buy
Saar KaL 18:03 GMT January 7, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level
EURAUD Might not seem like much
a great Buy...
Exp Values
Now----- Next month
1.5383 1.6417
Saar KaL 18:00 GMT January 7, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level
If you trade into next month
then
here
Sym Close Mean Mean 1 month Recommeded
FXE 134.79 135.74 136.70 Buy
FXY 93.78 94.86 94.13
FXB 161.62 161.60 163.70
FXF 108.36 109.51 110.48 Buy
FXA 89.7 88.81 87.45 Sell
FXC 93.34 93.37 92.72
^AORD 5327.7 5,332.24 5,365.20 Buy
^GDAXI 9428 9,356.97 9,578.51
^HSI 22684.15 23,281.55 23,416.00 Buy
^n225 15908.88 15,892.54 17,183.71
^NDX 3526.96 3,574.76 3,692.51 Buy
^GSPC 1826.77 1,831.64 1,868.70 Buy
^FTSE 6730.7 6,665.76 6,682.84
djia 16425.1 16,210.10 16,449.17
USO 33.57 36.02 36.04 Buy
GLD 119.5 114.10 110.25 Sell
SLV 19.42 17.99 17.27 Sell
aapl 543.93 556.45 584.91 Buy
yhoo 39.93 39.81 42.57
amgn 113.48 117.21 118.86 Buy
goog 1117.32 1,081.69 1,127.82
pcln 1139.53 1,233.85 1,308.02 Buy
ddd 92.49 82.06 90.69
bidu 176.63 184.04 199.29 Buy
al 30.52 31.57 32.29 Buy
see 33.64 33.91 35.60 Buy
FSLR 51.26 58.92 61.77 Buy
Z 87.6 89.62 92.54 Buy
PCAR 59.16 58.32 59.31
tsla 147 177.63 186.46 Buy
chi gw 17:58 GMT January 7, 2014
EUR/USD
nice trading Z!
USA ZEUS 17:18 GMT January 7, 2014
EUR/USD
Scaled out of remaining daily theme scalps at 1.3631
USA ZEUS 17:14 GMT January 7, 2014
EUR/USD
Tomorrow's EUR/USD pivot continues to be very tight with today's. Condition for a big breakout. Cheers!
USA ZEUS 17:10 GMT January 7, 2014
EUR/USD
Scaling out of EUR/USD daily theme scalp longs from 1.3598 starting at 1.3624
Cheers!
GVI Forex john 16:51 GMT January 7, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Late in European trade, prices in open prime fixed income markets are broadly higher. Unusually European and U.S. equities are also up. The peripheral European bond prices are up strongly.
ed kw 16:26 GMT January 7, 2014
Canada Ivey PMI
last time gbp GDP was bad from oil in the north sea shutdown
USA ZEUS 16:24 GMT January 7, 2014
EUR/USD
EUR/USD take gains at your leisure.
Cheers!
ed kw 16:07 GMT January 7, 2014
Canada Ivey PMI
to much snow next be floods,and we sent it to gbp
GVI Forex john 15:57 GMT January 7, 2014
Canada Ivey PMI
Undoubtedly the weather will impact the economy. Its mainly record cold impacting everyone east of the Rockies in North America.
USA ZEUS 15:27 GMT January 7, 2014
Canada Ivey PMI
Markets lead and trigger policies and thresholds/barriers. Markets create the economic conditions.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:23 GMT January 7, 2014
Canada Ivey PMI
Zeus, you can make the case for the opposite although charts can show you what side is more vulnerable.
USA ZEUS 15:22 GMT January 7, 2014
Canada Ivey PMI
I don't have a clue why anyone reacts to anything in the news or econ release data. I just trade the charts.
Over the years I've learnt that price creates news, not the other way around.
Cheers!
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:19 GMT January 7, 2014
Canada Ivey PMI
Zeus, no clue why but as always reaction to news is all that counts.
USA ZEUS 15:14 GMT January 7, 2014
Canada Ivey PMI
If you can't trust it then why does the market react?
It is what it is...
Cheers!
USA ZEUS 15:13 GMT January 7, 2014
EUR/USD
Reply
Long EUR/USD at 1.3598 for a sideways day buy on dip sell on blip.
Cheers!
GVI Forex john 15:06 GMT January 7, 2014
Canada Ivey PMI
Canadian PMIs (Ivey and RBC-Markit). Hard to take this number (Ivey PMI) seriously.
GVI Forex john 15:03 GMT January 7, 2014
Canada Ivey PMI
much weaker than expected, but you cannot trust this data series.
Paris ib 14:58 GMT January 7, 2014
U.S. Treasury Maturities
nh... USD 4 trillion or so - which needs to be auctioned in 2014 (for maturities and to finance this year's U.S. government deficit) - is not small beer. What is small beer is what the FED decides to do with QE in this context. 40 billion per month (or less as it happens) is really not that significant when you consider that upwards of 300 billion is scheduled to be auctioned each month. What counts is who is currently holding the expiring paper and also what paper will be issued to cover the roll over. What are they going to do? I doubt they will issue just short term paper to cover the paper which matures, that would be beyond stupid. So where will they try to issue the paper? In the 3-5 year area? Or longer?
Amman wfakhoury 14:20 GMT January 7, 2014
EURJPY 142.75 confirmed
Amman wfakhoury 14:17 GMT 01/07/2014
142.75 confirmed and will be reached ..in case price decline below 142.32 will return to it
Amman wfakhoury 14:17 GMT January 7, 2014
EURJPY 142.75 confirmed
Reply
142.75 confirmed and will be reached ..in case price decline below 142.32 will return to it
GVI Forex john 13:38 GMT January 7, 2014
U.S. and Canada Trade
U.S. Trade. Deficit narrows from October. This boosts 4Q13 GDP...
Livingston nh 13:25 GMT January 7, 2014
U.S. Treasury Maturities
ib - the Fed has no short term bills on the balance sheet - most of the Fed custodial holdings are short term and, as usual, will be the bulk of the refinancing roll (not very sensitive to rates) // the Fed will still take about 350 bio of notes in QE wind down (plus interest on 4+ trio balance sheet holdings) // 3 trio is small beer
The Fed has distorted the fixed income market but the adjustment will not be as painful as a private holder because the Fed's 3 yr and out instruments will not come back into the market -- the disturbance will come when the Fed backs off the "lower for longer" committment
GVI Forex john 13:01 GMT January 7, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
German 10-yr 1.890% -2bp. down 1bp since flash HICP was was released earlier. Below 1.00% put pressure on ECB to meet its inflation target of just below 2.00% p.a., especially as numerous e E-Z economies languish. At some point the central bank must run policy for countries other than Germany.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:31 GMT January 7, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
Reply
Peripherals equities are up, bond yields are down sharply today, led by Spain, could be a source of EUR demand.
Bottom of 1.3655-75 resistance band (as noted on my GVIForex daily video update) so far holding.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:30 GMT January 7, 2014
2014 Forex and Global Markets Survey
Reply
2014 Forex and Global Markets Survey
Welcome to the annual Forex and Global Markets Survey
Click on the following link to take part in our survey.
2014 Forex and Global Markets Survey
Once you complete this short survey, send me an EMAIL to get my must read report:
How to Avoid the Forex Death Spiral
Your participation will be kept strictly confidential. Please contact me with any questions or comments.
Paris ib 11:11 GMT January 7, 2014
U.S. Treasury Maturities
No wonder they were making all that noise about the wall of money which was supposed to be leaving Japan...... for the U.S. of course (where else? ha ha). Talk about wishful thinking. Japan now has no external surplus to reinvest and is currently sitting on 1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. So far the Japanese have repatriated NOT increased their holdings of U.S. Treasuries (where there has been any discernible movement). China owns a similar amount of U.S. Treasuries and this is the time that the U.S. is playing geo-politics with China? Where do these people get their advice, I'd like to know. And Yellen is supposed to manage this situation?
Paris ib 11:05 GMT January 7, 2014
U.S. Treasury Maturities
Correction: 3.1 trillion is maturing in the U.S. this year. (These trillions do my head in). It sure would be interesting to know how much, if any, is currently owned by foreign investors. Anyway that's as much as 330 billion a month which needs to be auctioned. Sure throws the FEDs 40 billion a month (and falling) QE contribution into stark relief.
Paris ib 11:01 GMT January 7, 2014
U.S. Treasury Maturities
Thanks Spotforex. The Bloomberg article states that 3.1 billion will come due in 2014 in the U.S. "The amount of bills, notes and bonds coming due for the Group of Seven nations... At $3.1 trillion, representing a 6 percent increase, the U.S. faces the largest tab."
So you would add on the current government deficit on top of that. That means what? An auction schedule of around 4 trillion USD? So you are looking at upwards of 300 billion per month which needs to be auctioned in the U.S. this year. Are they counting on the continued support of foreign investors for that? They better play nice with China.
Rolling that debt
Spotforex NY 10:48 GMT January 7, 2014
U.S. Treasury Maturities
here is BBG spin on debt
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-06/bond-tab-for-biggest-economies-seen-at-7-43-trillion-for-2014.html
Paris ib 10:30 GMT January 7, 2014
U.S. Treasury Maturities
Clarifying: is that 250 billion in Treasury notes and bills which need to be auctioned per month in 2014? Is that what is scheduled?
Paris ib 10:26 GMT January 7, 2014
U.S. Treasury Maturities
Reply
I am trying to find some data about U.S. Treasuries. From what I have seen it seems that over 2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries mature in 2014, so that amount needs to be rolled over, and then there is the deficit, which needs to be financed. That would make about 3 trillion which needs to find a home in 2014 (at higher interest rates than in 2012 and 2013)... So what is that per month? These numbers are too big for me. Is that 250 billion per month? That seems to me to be too high. But 25 billion seems tiny. Mind is boggled.
It also seems that currently the FED owns more than 40% of all debt with a maturity of more than 5 years. I have no idea how much they own of the shorter dated stuff. I presume not that much since QE was all about keeping longer term rates down.
2014 Treasury Maturities
GVI Forex john 10:11 GMT January 7, 2014
Eurozone flash HICP
Deflation a maojr worry for ECB. ECB meets on Thursday.
Saar KaL 10:02 GMT January 7, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level
Gold
Selling this month as long as above
1,185.50
Next Month TGT 1,067.76
Saar KaL 09:47 GMT January 7, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level
TSLA is America's best stock
148 now
i see 250 next year
and 800 in 4 years
GVI Forex john 09:43 GMT January 7, 2014
German jobs data improves. As expected, Yellen approved to head Fed.
Reply
Spot
|
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3617
|
1.3712
|
U.S.
2.96% 0bp
|
North
America: Higher
|
EURJPY
142.02
|
142.70
|
Bund
1.90% -1bp
|
DAX:
Higher
|
GBPUSD
1.6381
|
1.6396
|
GILT
2.97% 0bp
|
FTSE:
Higher
|
USDJPY
104.29
|
104.07
|
JGB
0.70% -.bp |
Far
East
Close: Higher
|
HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: EZ- HICP (CPI). CA/US- Trade
- German December employment data was stronger than expected.
See the FOREX FORUM
for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- Late Monday, Fed Vice-Chair Yellen was approved, as
expected to be the next head of the central bank as of February 1. With
policy now data dependent, it is important that recent U.S..
economic data might be turning mixed. See the FOREX FORUM
for latest key data and charts as they are released.
- This week features central bank decisions by the Bank of
England and the ECB. No policy changes are expected. Monthly u,S.
employment data are set for Friday..For additional
key items and more detail (dates, times,
data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic
Calendar. See the FOREX FORUM
for latest key data and charts as they are released.
GVI Forex john 09:27 GMT January 7, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly higher. The peripheral European bond prices are higher. European Equity markets are stronger.
GVI Forex john 09:11 GMT January 7, 2014
German Unemployment falls
German Unemployment falls (higher is worse). Adjuseted unemployment rate remains flat. EURUSD a touch higher.
Hong Kong AceTrader 07:07 GMT January 7, 2014
AceTrader Jan 7 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/SGD
Reply
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2716
07 Jan 2014 06:28GMT
Usd's breach of Dec's high at 1.2698 signals er
ratic upmove fm 1.2343 (Oct) has resumed n upside
bias wud be seen for gain to 1.2731 n 1.2758 later.
Buy on dips with stop as indicated, below wud
signal temp. top has made n risk 1.2645.
STRATEGY : Buy at 1.2695
OBJECTIVE : 1.2750
STOP-LOSS : 1.2670
RES : 1.2731/1.2758/1.2766
SUP : 1.2673/1.2645/1.2618
Hong Kong AceTrader 03:27 GMT January 7, 2014
AceTrader Jan 7: U.S. dollar retreats after weak ISM PMI data
Reply
Market Review - 06/01/2014 22:46GMT
U.S. dollar retreats after weak ISM PMI data
The single currency turned higher on Monday on short-covering together with dollar's broad-based weakness as data showed service sector activity in the U.S. slowed unexpectedly in December, led lower by a drop in new orders.
During the day, although the single currency remained under pressure in Asia and penetrated Friday's low at 1.3582 to a fresh 1-month trough at 1.3572 ahead of European opening, lack-of-follow through selling prompted short-covering and euro later rebounded to 1.3622 in European trading and then further to 1.3653 in New York morning after weak U.S. data.
The Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing purchasing manager's index declined to 53.0 in December from 53.9 in November, worse than the forecast of an increase to 54.5.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar tumbled in Asian trading after an initial rise to 104.95 with sharp falls in Japan equities market bolstering safe haven demand for the yen (Nikkei 225 index close down by 2.35% to 15,908.88). Dollar dropped to as low as 104.15 but failure to penetrated last Friday's low at 104.08 prompted short-covering and dollar later climbed back to 104.84 in New York before falling to 103.91 again after disappointing U.S. economic reports.
Cable ratcheted lower in Asia after penetrating Friday's low at 1.6395 and dropped to a fresh 1-week low at 1.6337 in European morning after data showed Markit/CIPS Services Purchasing Managers Index declined to a six month low of 58.8 in December from 60.0 in November, however, renewed weakness of dollar versus European currencies lifted price later in the day and cable rose above New Zealand high of 1.6420 to 1.6434 in New York morning before easing.
On the data front, euro zone showed the bloc's services PMI came in at 51.0 in December, unchanged from the preliminary estimate and down slightly from 51.2 in November. Separate reports showed that activity in Spain's private sector expanded at the fastest rate in 77 months, but activity in France and Italy contracted last month.
In other news, data over the weekend showed that activity in China's services sector slumped to the weakest level since August 2011 in December, fueling concerns over the outlook for growth in the world's second largest economy.
Data to be release on Tuesday:
Australia trade balance, France consumer confidence, Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, EU PPI, CPI, U.S. trade balance, Redbook retail sales, Canada trade balance, import, export and Ivey PMI.
tokyo ginko 01:18 GMT January 7, 2014
USD/JPY 110
fingers standing by...
many more chart points
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