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Forex Forum Archive for 01/10/2014

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Sydney ACC 23:32 GMT January 10, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data

Canadian and US demographics ought to be comparable yet the labour participation rates are dissimilar. Canadian rate was reported at 66.4 while the US was 62.8. There have to be other reasons other than retiring baby boomers to explain the disparity.

I am amused but never surprised at the market's response to the monthly release of this figure which is prone to significant subsequent revision. October and November's figures were increased by 38,000. Furthermore many of the commentaries I've read indicate that the weather was a contributing factor further stating that a number of jobs would have been deferred into the following month. Well the weather has been much worse in the first week of January so this month's figure is also likely to be distorted.

A number of Fed governors will speak next week, they are likely to talk up the economy, plus there's the release of the Beige Book. All adds up to the likelihood of another volatile week.

Livingston nh 21:32 GMT January 10, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data

John - PMI figs provide a direction in hiring w/o magnitude of hiring so the trend is up but NFP says it is a slow climb

The overqualified and underqualified are trapped in the long term unemployed group - all the income inequality, job opportunity and education debates in the political realm are misdirected - the end of QE may move money again which should help small businesses and start-ups

Livingston nh 21:19 GMT January 10, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Another event day has passed w/o too much damage-- soon the actual Taper will commence and various markets will decide what effect it is having -- will Yellen move the Goal Post on unemployment to 6%?

3.12% 10 yr yield is next target but there are no more event days before FOMC so it may be a grind higher

ed kw 21:13 GMT January 10, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data

us guv. is stoned 2 years lost

dc CB 21:07 GMT January 10, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data

from the evening Baffle Them With BS news reporting.

NPR news just had a former Clinton labor dept guy who said: the reason the labor participation is so low and dropping is because so many of the Baby Boomers are reaching retirement age and leaving the work force.

???????????? now if more states legalized pot, more people would be too stoned to even think about that statement.

GVI Forex john 20:42 GMT January 10, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

KL KL 20:41 GMT January 10, 2014
SELLL AUDUSD!!!
Reply   
Relentless .90023.....cover under .8995....need to steal pips....LOL

ed kw 20:40 GMT January 10, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data

1972 calender/ or its seas short 4ish shopping days but i shod have used working days

GVI Forex john 19:01 GMT January 10, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data

As I stand back and look at the chart below, It says to me that NFP has been stuck between 150-200K for over 3 years. That simply is not good enough. The trend looks dead flat.

GVI Forex john 18:36 GMT January 10, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data



UPDATED: Services Employment PMI vs. NFP. Not sure what to make of this. Suggests NFP was an outlier?

GVI Forex john 18:18 GMT January 10, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Bond market still unhappy with the data, despite what I hear on bubblevision 10-yr 2.873% -9bp. What happened to 3.00%+?

USA ZEUS 18:00 GMT January 10, 2014
EUR/USD

cannes elton 16:12 GMT 01/10/2014

Thanks very much. Same to you, sir!

GVI Forex john 16:45 GMT January 10, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trade, prices in prime fixed income markets are higher after a clearly dovish press conference by ECB President Draghi and a weaker than expected December Jobs report from the U.S. European and U.S. equities are mixed. The peripheral European bond prices are mixed.



GVI Forex Blog 16:28 GMT January 10, 2014 Reply   
January 10, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, January 13. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- Holiday

GVI Forex Data Outlook for January 13, 2013

GVI Forex john 16:26 GMT January 10, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


January 10, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, January 13. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- Holiday

  • Far East: JP- Holiday.
  • Europe: No Major Data.
  • North America: No Major Data.


cannes elton 16:12 GMT January 10, 2014
EUR/USD

USA ZEUS

tks a lot for posting yours trading idea. very very good.
have nice w.e.

USA ZEUS 15:59 GMT January 10, 2014
EUR/USD

chi gw 15:51 GMT 01/10/2014

Thank you for the kind remarks, gw.
Best trades to you!

GVI Forex 15:57 GMT January 10, 2014
Week Ahead
Reply   
• Markets in mood of cautious optimism, but monetary policy outlooks differ across regions

• Heavy US data schedule looks set to confirm firmer close to 2013

• UK retail sales expected to add to softer official data, inflation to tick higher

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - RETAIL SALES IN FOCUS

chi gw 15:51 GMT January 10, 2014
EUR/USD

sorry, that was directed at Z

dc CB 15:51 GMT January 10, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

REUTERSJ AN. 10, 2014, 10:48 A.M. E.S.T.

WASHINGTON — U.S. President Barack Obama on Friday nominated former Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer and two others to round out the top ranks of the Federal Reserve

Loading... Home Page World U.S. New York Business Opinion Sports Science Arts Fashion & Style Crosswords Video Business Day Obama Names Fischer as Fed Vice Chair: White House

chi gw 15:51 GMT January 10, 2014
EUR/USD

great PA read my friend... as usual :)

GVI Forex john 15:18 GMT January 10, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

I like to watch the 10-yr yield as a true measure of what the markets REALLY feel about the data. It seems every talking head has one agenda or another, including explaining away their wrong forecasts.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:13 GMT January 10, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

John, good alert on the 20 day mva. High just below it.,

GVI Forex john 15:08 GMT January 10, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Now that the dust SHOULD have settled 10-yr last 2.873% -9.2bps. Yields at LOD and falling.

USA ZEUS 15:08 GMT January 10, 2014
EUR/USD

USA ZEUS 13:51 GMT January 9, 2014
Loaded long again at 1.3555
_____________________________________________________

Closed 1/2 EUR/USD longs at 1.3680. B/E for a free trade on the remaining. Cheers!

GVI Forex john 15:00 GMT January 10, 2014
Wholesale Inventories
Reply   



ALERT
NOVEMBER 2013 U.S. Wholesale Inventories
+0.50% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +1.40% (r +1.30%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:59 GMT January 10, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

Re the 20 day mva, also note the slope of the line as that reflects momentum.

GVI Forex john 14:57 GMT January 10, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

#EURUSD 20-day avg 1.3687 according to our data. I would expect stops on either side of that figure with calculations of the 20-day different according to the source. Our COT indicator says that market sentiment changes on a spot move through the 20-day avg. COT data as of Tuesday due later today.

Paris ib 14:40 GMT January 10, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data

Who's lying? Everyone. Statistics hark back to an era when it was impossible to have an accurate idea of what was going on in the real economy, so you took a SMALL random sample and then extrapolated the results, PRETENDING that the extrapolation represented the real situation for the entire economy. These days - with communications and computers being what they are - we could have the real situation reported to us and we wouldn't need a 'statistics' bureau. Of course then the opportunity to manipulate the data would be zilch. So don't hold your breath that we see any reform in this area (anywhere in the world).

tokyo ginko 14:40 GMT January 10, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

today is a good day to print 103.55/60, stops to 103.30/35

dc CB 14:35 GMT January 10, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data

Wednesday, the ADP private payrolls number soared to the highest monthly change since November 2012, a 238,000 increase driven by what the report said was a 48,000 increase in construction jobs.
ADP's Mark Zandi went on the record to say that “The job market ended 2013 on a high note. Job gains are broad-based across industries, most notably in construction and manufacturing. It appears that businesses are growing more confident and increasing their hiring."

According to today's BLS report in December, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the construction industry lost 16K jobs. And where it gets really funny is when one looks at construction on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, construction jobs plummeted by a whopping 216,000!

However you cut it someone is obviously lying. If we cared we would ask who. However, since both data series are completely fabricated, who even cares?

So, Who's Lying?

GVI Forex john 14:19 GMT January 10, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data

Logical that Canadian job figures were distorted by the same weather that impacted the U.S. I don't recall especially bad weather in the Northeast U.S. If I am correct, the bad U.S. weather was in the upper Middle-West?

Of course, we should be expecting a widespread weather impact in January. Best to assume the Fed will be looking beyond these data.

Paris ib 14:19 GMT January 10, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

Flat today. Waiting for noise to subside and then, yeah, sell USD. No question the U.S. recovery will struggle with higher yields and a lack of foreign capital inflows. I'm still interested to hear if anyone else has another figure for the Treasury schedule for 2014. I'm at 4 trillion, which is staggering, but I could be wrong. That said, I'm not particularly interested in relative interest rates at this stage, I don't think they are determinant. Geopolitics is where it's at IMVHO. And they look ugly right now. What the U.S. administration is up to in the Chinese region defies belief. Are they stupid? Or just insane? At any rate nothing good will come of it.

Livingston nh 14:13 GMT January 10, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data

Plug factor neg 15 same as Nov// pay attention to non-seasonal adj for trends - a neg 100k+ change in state employment nov to dec (undoing oct nov change) // unemployment rate NSA 6.3% vs SA 6.7% so the Fed is stuck - the political calculus re: extended unemployment benefit is muddied by the big drop in Unemployment rate

JAN NFP fig is always subject to a large neg PLUG factor - so welcome Chairwoman Yellen

jkt abel 14:13 GMT January 10, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

ib, selling usd big time?

GVI Forex john 14:12 GMT January 10, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data



Canada jobs. Worse than expected.

Paris ib 14:10 GMT January 10, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

Indeed CB. That said I'm not buying into the hyped economic recovery in the U.S., which seems to be a slam dunk from every economic commentator out there.

dc CB 14:06 GMT January 10, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

dc CB 22:08 GMT January 9, 2014
Dovish ECB, BOE policy steady. U.S. Employment Friday:
As for the NFP...as per usual those that know have already program the computers to swing wide headfake takeoutstops youcannever be asfastas us...it will all be over in 10 seconds and no you'll not be able to catch the more.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

PS: the BLS's very own webpage states that the released # is +/- 100,000.

There will be revisions of course, but this month Treasury's needs required that the margin of error be taken on the "minus" side.

GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT January 10, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

weather had an outsized impact on the data, but it is winter...
"More than a quarter million Americans were not at work because of inclement weather, the most for any December since 1977, the Labor Department said."

dc CB 13:58 GMT January 10, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today



with this week's 10Y aution going off at above 3%, did you actually think that the BLS would release a "good" number???

did you think they would put out a 200K+++number and send the 10 up to 3.1%

has anybody been paying attention?

GVI Forex john 13:54 GMT January 10, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

#TradeIdeas... So much for ADP and those Wall Street economists. Just proves they don't know much more than the rest of us. We are all flying blind.

GVI Forex john 13:44 GMT January 10, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data

Data much weaker than expected.






Click on chart for more than 10-yr history





Direct links to primary data sources

hk ab 13:34 GMT January 10, 2014
gold
Reply   
seems stop hunting to test the baby bears......

GVI Forex john 13:34 GMT January 10, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data





ALERT

December 2013 Canada Employment
Jobs: -45.9K vs. +13.10K exp. vs. +21.60K prev.
Rate: 7.2% vs. 7.00% exp. vs. 6.90% prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:32 GMT January 10, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data




ALERT
December 2013 U.S. Employment
NFP Jobs: +74K vs. +195K exp. vs. +203K (r 241) prev.
Private Empl: +87K vs. +195K exp. vs. +196K (r ) prev.
Rate: 6.7% vs. 7.00% exp. vs. 7.00% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:02 GMT January 10, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data
Reply   

HEADS-UP: Data (forum top)
EURUSD= 1.3590
GBPUSD= 1.6410
USDJPY= 105.00
USDCAD= 1.0866

US 10-yr= 2.97%
DE 10-yr= 1.89%
UK 10-yr= 2.95%
(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:41 GMT January 10, 2014
Correlation Trades
Reply   
See this article i wrote:

Do Correlation Trades Work and Can I trade Them?

Mtl JP 12:26 GMT January 10, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

substantial undershoot carries higher risk of (interest) volatility

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:44 GMT January 10, 2014
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GVI Forex john 11:24 GMT January 10, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

Jay- yes I agree. the dividing line between a strong and disappointing report seems to be 200K. In a larger sense, a jobs gain of 200K is still not very impressive or nearly enough.

As for tapering. I think the general view at the Fed is that the Asset Purchase Program has not worked and they want to get out of it asap before it does permanent damage.

GVI Forex 11:15 GMT January 10, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The GBP did encounter some weakness following in the UK production data (both IP and Manufacturing came in below expectations). The GBP/USD fell over 50 pips and tested 1.64 figure following the data.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK Industrial & Manufacturing data comes in softer than expected; focus turns to US Non-Farm Payroll data

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:00 GMT January 10, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

Question for NFP is what would be considered an undershoot? Is it sub-200K

Doubtful such an undershoot would change Fed tapering timetable so trade accordingly should the dollar sell off on an undershoot IMHO

GVI Forex john 10:16 GMT January 10, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
Reply   
#TradingIdeas About every six months since 2008 has seen a jobs Friday frenzy like today where an exceptionally strong jobs figure is expected. Sooner or later these expectations will be correct. Even the Fed is betting on this number after making its tapering decision in December.

Frankly, I would rather bet on the accuracy of a weather forecast than the employment forecasts of a bunch of Wall Street economists. Most of them have a vested interest in talking up the economy. Virtually everyone has raised their job estimates since the ADP report on Wednesday. I don't trust ADP more than the weatherman either!

From a trading perspective, keep in mind that all the major markets are already set up for a strong data release, Furthermore, these data now seems regularly to leak ahead of time, so be cautious. Once the dust settles, a strong report would generally be seen as USD positive.

Any ideas on a trading strategy today?

GVI Forex Blog 09:57 GMT January 10, 2014 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CA/US- Employment

As expected, the BOE kept policy steady Thursday.It released no policy statement. The ECB made no policy changes today. The tone of the

U.S. Employment key to future Fed policy decisions

GVI Forex john 09:47 GMT January 10, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply   
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly higher after a dovish ECB yesterday. Traders are awaiting U.S. December Employment data today. The data are key to future tapering decisions by the Federal Reserve. The peripheral European bond prices are mixed. European Equity markets are higher.

GVI Forex john 09:35 GMT January 10, 2014
United Kingdom Output

U.K. output data misses vs. expectations. GBPUSD weakens.

GVI Forex john 09:33 GMT January 10, 2014
United Kingdom Output
Reply   




-- ALERT --

UK Industrial/Manufacturing Output
November 2013
Ind mm: 0.0% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. 0.40% (r +0.30%) prev.
Ind yy: +2.50% vs. +3.00% exp. vs. +3.20% prev.

Mfg mm: 0.0% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.40% (r +0.20% prev.
Mfg yy: +2.80% vs. +3.20% exp. vs. +3.20% (r +2.60%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Syd sf 07:43 GMT January 10, 2014
Stocks
Reply   
right now I see :

US +23 / Germany +39 / Nikkei -2.5 / China Flat

these are just based off CFD Stock Market Indexes.

Syd sf 07:41 GMT January 10, 2014
Is George Soros betting against China?

alot of people are talking on the commentaries about Soros v China .. but they also point out via Western Standards the Chinese Economy is in much better shape.

Also I'm not sure betting against a Communist Govt gets you very far .. its not one of the Top 10 things I want to do in my lifetime.

With NFP upcoming I don't have any positions on board - its very choppy really .. Stock Markets up one day / down the next.

GVI Forex Blog 06:49 GMT January 10, 2014 Reply   
- (CN) CHINA DEC TRADE BALANCE: $25.6B V $32.2BE >- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: +7.5% V -3.8% PRIOR (fastest pace since Jan 2010) - (JP) JAPAN NOV PRELIM LEADING INDEX CI: 110.8 V 110.8

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China trade surplus, exports miss; Alcoa begins the earnings season - Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 05:58 GMT January 10, 2014
Is George Soros betting against China?

China's annual trade surplus back to highest since 2008...
-
with respect to NFP (expected at 197K, close to the 200K level seen already so many times, almost like a lullaby) print better not come in sub 150K lest open the gates of yields' fury

ed kw 04:35 GMT January 10, 2014
Is George Soros betting against China?

check copper chart had big spike up with s&p spike down

ed kw 04:29 GMT January 10, 2014
Is George Soros betting against China?

more us QE for charts hit reversing from s&p down spike /

Syd 04:05 GMT January 10, 2014
Is George Soros betting against China?
Reply   
George Soros probably shouldn't expect any warm invitations to Beijing - not with the much-reviled short seller warning of a giant Chinese crash.

The billionaire first shook a major government in September 1992, when he led an attack on the British pound. For his role in humiliating London and forcing John Major's government to exit the European exchange-rate mechanism - essentially the euro - Soros reportedly netted $US2 billion.

People haven't make lots of money betting against China. But Soros is absolutely right that there's a worrisome disconnect between China's pledges to move away from excessive investment and overborrowing and toward a services-based economy without sacrificing rapid growth. If Xi doesn't act now, Soros could make way more than $US2 billion when things go awry and savage the global economy. Add a zero.

GVI Forex Blog 03:44 GMT January 10, 2014 Reply   
Dow (16444.76, -0.11%) remains in a shallow sideways corrective mode between 16400 and

Morning Briefing : 10-Jan-2014 -0341 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:36 GMT January 10, 2014
AceTrader Jan 10: Euro falls to a fresh 1-month low after ECB's Draghi comments
Reply   

Market Review - 09/01/2014 21:24GMT

Euro falls to a fresh 1-month low after ECB's Draghi comments

The single currency turned lower to a fresh 1-month low against the dollar on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reinforced the bank's forward guidance on rates and said the bank was still ready to take 'further decisive action' if needed. The ECB kept interest rate unchanged at 0.25% in January.

During the day, although euro rebounded after finding support at 1.3567 at Asian open and then ratcheted higher to 1.3634 in New York morning, price came under pressure as Draghi reiterated that 'monetary policy will remain accommodative for as long as is needed in order to assist the economic recovery in the euro area' during the press conference and euro penetrated Wednesday's low of 1.3554 to a fresh 1-month low at 1.3548, however, lack-of-follow through selling prompted short-covering and price later recovered above 1.3600 near NY close.

Against the Japanese yen, dollar's intra-day moves on Thursday were mainly driven by cross-trading of yen and price traded in a choppy fashion below Wednesday's high of 105.13. The pair rebounded from Asian low at 104.75 to 105.06 in European morning before falling to 104.77 and then to session low at 104.57 in New York morning.

Cable edged higher from Asian low at 1.6441 to 1.6480 in European morning and then further to 1.6497 in New York morning after Bank of England announced no change to monetary policy following its first meeting of the year, however, euro's intra-day selloff pressured price here and the pair later dropped to 1.6452 and then traded in a choppy fashion for the rest of the New York session.

The Bank of England left rates on hold at 0.5% and announced no change to the size of its GBP 375 billion asset purchase program, as was widely expected. No statement after monetary policy decision.

On the data front, U.S. Labor Department said Thursday the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance last week fell by 15,000 to 330,000 from the previous week's revised total of 345,000. A separate report earlier showed U.K. trade deficit narrowed to GBP 9.44 billion from a downwardly revised deficit of GBP 9.65 billion in October.

In other news, BOJ's Shirai said 'it is possible to aim for 2%inflation at slower pace than 2 yr time frame if burden on households and companies become excessive; currently there is a lot of uncertainty around the time frame for the BOJ's 2% inflation target; would not hesitate to ease further if big downside risks economy, prices emerge; disinflationary trend is somewhat of a concern in euro area but rather limit in U.S.'

Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George told the Wisconsin Bankers Association that 'the Federal Reserve's efforts to provide markets with so-called "forward guidance" on its interest rate policy could result in the Fed keeping interest rates too low for too long, to the detriment of the economy'.

Data to be released on Friday:

Japan leading indicators, U.K. RBC retail sales, industrial production, manufacturing production, France industrial production, manufacturing production, Swiss unemployment rate, CPI, Canada unemployment rate, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earning, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
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A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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