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Forex Forum Archive for 01/11/2014
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dc CB 20:14 GMT January 11, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data
JPMorgan's Mike Feroli doesn't mix his words in his brief report on today's ugly jobs data. While other 'economists' proclaimed we should "ignore it" or blamed it on the weather, Feroli notes for example, "It's hard to see how the weather -- or anything else -- was to blame for the 25,000 decrease in employment of accountants."
But it his comments for the Fed that are most concerning as he worries, "the forward guidance decision could be even more difficult than the tapering call... lowering the unemployment threshold further would be doubling down on predicating policy on an arguably flawed statistic." "All Yours Janet": JPM Warns Fed About Using "Arguably Flawed Statistics"
Livingston nh 16:30 GMT January 11, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data
ACC - about 2/3 of the decline in participation rate is accounted for by "retirements" - this will increase because the bulk of Boomer cohort is still in the labor force // market focus on NFP is a result of Ben's introduction of dual mandate as a policy concern - this will pass and something new will become the stat du jour (used to be M1, CPI, trade deficit or whatever guided policy)
The Participation rate decline shouldn't surprise anyone and by itself is not a problem (about the same level as the late '70s) and was below 60 for more than a decade before boomers and their moms entered the workforce - but it is a symptom of a much changed economy and societal/governmental failure to understand and adjust
Economics is an art not a science
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