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Forex Forum Archive for 01/12/2014

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Syd sf 23:13 GMT January 12, 2014
Trading Week - Monday
GbpYen - looking to trade 168/173

inside that 169.25/172.25

basically tomorrow GBP CPI - the numbers Friday were weaker than expected - if CPI remains subdued then tightening expectations will dissipate and BOE Guidance can be lower .. should see eur/gbp rise and gbpyen weaken ... the thing is CPI type numbers have been subdued during this whole phase .. so looking for one more contained number.

hoping for one rally during the day to start selling ... all the best.

Mtl JP 22:32 GMT January 12, 2014

Syd sf ... meet Sheila Jackson Lee proposes new term for 'welfare'

GVI Forex john 18:32 GMT January 12, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

January 12, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, January 13. Updated: Trading Events Calendar


  • Far East: JP- Holiday.
  • Europe: No Major Data.
  • North America: No Major Data.

GVI Forex john 16:42 GMT January 12, 2014
Poor Prospects For U.S. Jobs Growth
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Poor Prospects For U.S. Jobs Growth

GVI Forex john 14:20 GMT January 12, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands

GVI Forex john 13:40 GMT January 12, 2014
Weak U.S. Employment data. Focus now Fed and ECB

20d avg
 EURUSD 1.3671
 U.S. 2.86% -10bp
  North America: Lower
 EURJPY 142.15
 Bund 1.85% -6bp
 DAX: Higher
 GBPUSD 1.6477
 GILT 2.88% -6bp
 FTSE: Higher
 USDJPY  103.98
  JGB 0.70% 0.bp  Far East Close: Mixed


  • The weakness of December U.S. jobs report was a real shocker. Some dismissed the data as mainly weather-related, but others saw weak underlying figures in the report. We feel the data confirmed that the U.S. jobs recovery is likely to remain slow.

  • As for the Fed, it is our impression that the central bank cannot end the asset purchase program soon enough and will do all in its power to maintain the current timing of its taper program. Key will be if future jobs figures continue to come in at the current average level of about 150-200K per month. If not, all tapering bets could be off.
  • It might be that the tide may be ready to turn in the markets against the EUR. At the end of 2013, it appeared that a EUR liquidity squeeze kept the unit in demand. It is possible now that with this technicality out of the way that the EUR could start to soften.

  • We were surprised by the intensity of  the dovish tone taken by ECB President Draghi. However he is a master talking around a subject. The ECB has pursued an unnecessarily tight monetary policy for years and as a result has not done nearly enough to promote economic growth throughout the currency area. As a result, the common currency will have to weaken at some point this year if the U.S. finally recovers.
  • The data calendar this week will give markets a chance to digest the events of the past week. U.S. Retail Sales data (Tuesday) are always key to economic sentiment. For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar. See the FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.

GVI Forex Blog 13:39 GMT January 12, 2014 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- Holiday The weakness of December U.S. jobs report was a real shocker. Some dismissed the data as mainly weather-related, but others saw weak underlying figures in the report. We feel the data confirmed that the U.S. jobs recovery is likely to remain slow.

Weak U.S. Employment data. Focus now Fed and ECB

Sydney ACC 05:00 GMT January 12, 2014
U.S./Canada Employment data

When I started to look into this I expected labour force participation rates across English speaking countries to be bear some comparison, but as Benjamin Disreali stated "lies, censored lies and statistics" these figures bear out that euphemism:
Labour force participation rates for the following countries:
Australia 64.8
UK 72.0
NZ 68.6
US 62.8
Canada 66.4

Hong Kong Qindex 04:46 GMT January 12, 2014
USD/CAD : Critical Point 1.1006

USD/CAD : A critical level is positioning at 1.1006 - 1.1040. As shown in the weekly cycle analysis (front page of my website) the market pivot centres are positioning at 1.0916 - 1.0950 - 1.1040. It is likely that the market is going to retreat early next week in the Asian session. A supporting barrier is expected at 1.0701 // 1.0721. The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is trading above 1.0775 (see the middle of the front page on U-Limits of USD/CAD).

USD/CAD : Monthly Cycle Charts


Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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