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Forex Forum Archive for 01/13/2014

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GVI Forex john 22:23 GMT January 13, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


January 13, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, Jmanuary 14. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: GB- CPI, PPI, EZ- Industrial Production, US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, API

  • Far East: JP- No Major Data.
  • Europe: GB- CPI, PPI, EZ- Industrial Production
  • North America: US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, Discount Minutes, API.


GVI Forex 22:05 GMT January 13, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
Amid little news flow, markets slightly extended Friday's reactions to the weak US payrolls report. US interest rates slipped further, AUD/USD and NZD/USD rose, while US equities struggled,

NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

Livingston nh 21:09 GMT January 13, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

some talk that Q4 GDP may be similar to Q3 - nominal GDP growth in 2014 shrinks budget deficit so supply of treasuries shrinks - so FED may switch TAPER from 50/50 to a larger faster reduction in treasuries purchase favoring MBS thru summer// budget vote on Weds

March FOMC may see the "threshold" lowered again (6% unemployment) - 2 more job reports by then

GVI Forex john 20:40 GMT January 13, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Belgrade TD 20:30 GMT January 13, 2014
Daily TA trade

Belgrade TD 14:06 GMT December 20, 2013
Entry: ~0.816 Target: NA Stop: <0.81 ... Long NZD/USD - longer term
///
3:15 GMT January 3, 2014 ... 1/4 out ~ 0.829 ... reducing risk
///
another 1/4 out ~ 0,836 ... for rest (2/4) stop ~0,83

GVI Forex john 20:20 GMT January 13, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


GVI Forex john 20:09 GMT January 13, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

#Tradeideas
Keep an eye on the yield of the U.S. 10-yr. Prices have risen steadily over the day and yields have fallen to 2.83%, -5bps on the day. This price action suggests traders are not comfortable with the weather explanation for the December jobs report. Of course, all the stock salespeople on bubblevision (CNBC) continue to tout stocks because that is their business.

GVI Forex Blog 20:02 GMT January 13, 2014 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: GB- CPI, PPI, EZ- Industrial Production, US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, API

Monday was a slow day on the data front, but the calendar will start to pick up starting on Tuesday. Onfre major focus on that day will be U.K. inflation data. That session will also see critical U.S. December (holiday) retail sales data. That data will be compared to the disappointing December U.S. jobs report. was a real shocker. We feel the data confirmed that the U.S. jobs recovery is likely to remain slow.

JPY gains vs the USD and EUR after U.S. jobs and ECB

USA ZEUS 18:57 GMT January 13, 2014
GBP/JPY
Reply   
GBP/JPY Position reversed to long at 168.39

Amman wfakhoury 18:56 GMT January 13, 2014
EURJPY 139.60 confirmed
Reply   
139.60 confirmed will be reached ...
rise above 140.77 will return again to 140.77.

PAR 18:44 GMT January 13, 2014
Shares buy back
Reply   
Zero interest rates and quantitative easing led to huge shares buy backs . Unfortunately share buy back lead to higher share prices but dont create jobs, on the contrary .

ed kw 18:03 GMT January 13, 2014
Global Markets News

short gbp xaugbp indicates its not a long for this week long aud and eur still in play

GVI Forex 17:21 GMT January 13, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
US equities are slogging sideways again this morning, with few big catalysts that would justify a big upwards or downwards move. As of writing

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Markets Still Stuck in Neutral

GVI Forex john 16:38 GMT January 13, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trade, prices in prime fixed income markets are higher after the outlook for Fed and ECB policy has clearly softened. The weaker than expected December Jobs report has had an impact as well. European and U.S. equities are mixed. The peripheral European bond prices are mixed.



GVI Forex Blog 15:54 GMT January 13, 2014 Reply   
January 13, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, Jmanuary 14. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

GVI Forex Data Outlook for January 14, 2014

GVI Forex john 15:51 GMT January 13, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


January 13, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, Jmanuary 14. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: GB- CPI, PPI, EZ- Industrial Production, US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, API

  • Far East: JP- No Major Data.
  • Europe: GB- CPI, PPI, EZ- Industrial Production
  • North America: US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, Discount Minutes, API.


Syd Sf 15:44 GMT January 13, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

It's pretty hard to have your best trade running over a NFP and feel comfortable.

EurGbp being sold so hard last week .. Has really messed up the market In terms of where to turn next for weakest link.

GVI Forex john 14:58 GMT January 13, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

Perfect picture of an oversold currency pair using COT charts. Note 20day avg now 104.43 spot 103.23. ginko great call last week!



HK [email protected] 14:32 GMT January 13, 2014
NZD/USD
Reply   


Some bank analysts, are predicting the pair to keep on rising more, thus enticing spec. to buy it, but regarding the fact the NZD is one of the most O.V. currency and the AUD, may drop much more from here, one may take care not to be caught long and wrong.

HK [email protected] 14:27 GMT January 13, 2014
USD
Reply   


Betting any currency against the USD, may carry higher risk, in the next few hours(maybe except the yen).

London Misha 14:15 GMT January 13, 2014
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - 2nd White Soldier as bounces up & away from key 50% Fib at 1.3594 on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart. Caution, KR's are suspect on this pair.
GBPUSD - Despite likely Key Reversal, market finishes as a Doji (possibly Bullish) on Daily Chart. Bullish Engulfing Pattern on Weekly Chart.
USDCHF - 2nd Black Crow on Daily Chart. Possible Bearish Shooting Star on Weekly Chart.
EURGBP - Opening White Marubozo follows indecisive Spinning Top on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Long White Marubozo follow indecisive Doji on Daily Chart.
USDINR - Bearish Engulfing Pattern on Daily Chart. Possible Bearish Breakaway Gap on Daily Chart today.
USDZAR - Bearish Engulfing Pattern on Daily Chart. Possible Bearish Shooting Star on Weekly Chart.
USDBRL - Follow on with Long Black Marubozo after Bearish Harami on Daily Chart.



tokyo ginko 14:14 GMT January 13, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

final add 103.02..

average long cost @ 103.11

GT all

Amman wfakhoury 14:12 GMT January 13, 2014
EURJPY140.77 reached

Now ..any decline below 140.77 will return to it

tokyo ginko 14:06 GMT January 13, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

added usd/jpy 103.20

Amman wfakhoury 14:02 GMT January 13, 2014
EURJPY140.77 reached
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 09:00 GMT 01/13/2014
141.48 wfakhoury directional level above it 142.45 and 142.85 will be reached ..below it 140.77 and 140.00 will be reached
140.77 confirmed ..will be reached.

GVI Forex john 13:50 GMT January 13, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

If you read my post carefully, I said EU not ECB. ECOFIN, not the ECB sets forex policy.

GVI Forex john 13:49 GMT January 13, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

I don't dispute that, but if the EU did intervene, they would work hard to cover their tracks.

Londoin Chris 13:46 GMT January 13, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

Seriously doubt ECB would intervene but could use dovish talk to keep upside from running away.

Maybe the likes of China work to maintain the range.

GVI Forex john 13:43 GMT January 13, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

I doubt that EU officials would try to protect an exact price in EURUSD, but feel pretty strongly that ultimately they want to keep EURUSD below 1.40. So as an intervention strategy they have been active at various levels below there. The LAST thing they would want to do is try to defend an obvious target like 1.40. An obvious intervention strategy of that type would be doomed to failure.

Just my opinins

tokyo ginko 13:42 GMT January 13, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

thank you.

turn usd/jpy long here small @ 103.28

Syd 13:23 GMT January 13, 2014
Baltic Dry Index
Reply   
Baltic Dry Index falls 7.7% today after a fall of 11.4% Friday, which was largely attributed to Colombia tightening coal rules

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:21 GMT January 13, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

John noted the 20 day mva (1.3687 Friday, 1.3684 today) before it capped the upside Friday (great heads up) and today the high was at this mva again (as posted in my video). Thus, an indicator to watch going forward.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:17 GMT January 13, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

Ginko, nice call. You stuck with it so reap the reward.

GVI Forex john 13:14 GMT January 13, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
Reply   
#TradingThoughts
ECB finally waking up to the fact that their policy has been too tight for the past five years. Bad for EUR. This is a medium term trend.

U.S. is in for an extended (years?) period of slow growth, barring another revolutionary development like the internet in the 90's. Only problem with the internet was that it displaced more jobs than it created. As for manufacturing coming back to the U.S., it takes a lot fewer people to make a widget today than it took when those jobs moved offshore.
Bad for USD. As for the Fed, the doves are firmly in control and far outnumber the hawks. They all seem to hate QE

JPY heavily oversold and the alternative to EUR and USD longs? JPY is favored ONLY because the markets are very short. Check out the COT reports.

JPY Commitment of Traders Report

tokyo ginko 13:02 GMT January 13, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

order done at 103.32 earlier.
Nikkei order done at 15605, 15565

global equities should head higher from here...with first test of snp @ 1850

Syd Sf 12:30 GMT January 13, 2014
Usd yen
Reply   
Sun tori paying 16 bio for Jim beam

bali sja 11:40 GMT January 13, 2014
sell usdcad
Reply   
sell any pop above 1.0950 till 1.1020, stop later

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:17 GMT January 13, 2014
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GVI Forex 10:58 GMT January 13, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
AUD/USD pair firmed towards 0.9050 area (**Reminder: AUD back near level where the currency fell after RBA Stevens stated on Dec 12th that AUD currency needed to be closer to 0.85)

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Italy BTP auction solid with 3-year yield at record low

GVI Forex Blog 10:37 GMT January 13, 2014 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- Holiday The weakness of December U.S. jobs report was a real shocker. We feel the data confirmed that the U.S. jobs recovery is likely to remain slow. As for the Fed, it is our impression that the central bank cannot end the asset purchase program soon enough and will do all in its power to maintain the current timing of its taper program..

JPY gains vs the USD and EUR after U.S. jobs and ECB

GVI Forex john 10:23 GMT January 13, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply   
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly higher after the poor U.S. payrolls data and the dovish ECB last week. The peripheral European bond prices are mixed. Far East shatres ended mixed. European Equity markets are higher.

Amman wfakhoury 09:15 GMT January 13, 2014
EURJPY 141.48 wfakhoury DL

no wait..sell and add sell if rise...14077 confirmed 14148 will be touched again if rise

NY Bob 09:07 GMT January 13, 2014
EURJPY 141.48 wfakhoury DL

Thanks for the update wfakhoury. Lets wait for the position.

Amman wfakhoury 09:03 GMT January 13, 2014
EURJPY 141.48 wfakhoury DL

as 140.77 confirmed any rise above 141.48 will return to 141.48

Amman wfakhoury 09:00 GMT January 13, 2014
EURJPY 141.48 wfakhoury DL
Reply   
141.48 wfakhoury directional level above it 142.45 and 142.85 will be reached ..below it 140.77 and 140.00 will be reached
140.77 confirmed ..will be reached.

NY Bob 08:31 GMT January 13, 2014
EUR/JPY
Reply   
wfakhoury : your comment on eurjpy please

USA 08:03 GMT January 13, 2014
Forex: Dollar Ready to Break, If the NFPs Can Live Up to the Hype
Reply   
Dollar Ready to Break, If the NFPs Can Live Up to the Hype
The stage is set. The US dollar has worked itself into a position where it is easily susceptible to volatility just in time for the December Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs). Yet, forcing a breakout – much less generating a meaningful trend – may be more difficult than our contrarian readings would insinuate. Looking to volatility measures for the benchmark currency, we find the medium-term FX Volatility Index is hovering at its lowest level since November 20. More specific to the benchmark dollar, the rolling 20-day (one trading month) Average True Range (ATR) on the Dow Jones censored Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) is a sparse 36.3 points. That is the lowest activity level for the currency since May 2002.

Extremes are severe but temporary states. Just as extraordinary periods of volatility settle as they revert back to a historical mean, extreme levels of inactivity beget breakouts and larger price swings. Pairing the current backdrop to one of the most recognizable, market-moving pieces of event risk seems the equivalent of dropping a lit match into dry tinder. Yet, over the past months we have witnessed just how resistant the markets are to returning to ‘normal’. For the December employment data, the watershed moment has already been realized. TheFederal Reserve has already taken the remarkable first step to decelerate its immense QE3 stimulus program at the December 18 FOMC policy meeting. That was the objective that many fundamental traders were trying to ascertain from the labor trends.

Though it is a very early first step, the change in tack by the US central bank is still critical to capital markets and the dollar. If the jobs statistics support expectations of a steady path of belt QE belt-tightening moving forward, it can bolster market rates and thereby raise the dollar’s profile. The more severe impact though would come alongside a tremor of general fear throughout the financial markets. If investors begin to worry about record levels of leverage, exposure to risky assets, low rates of return and tepid participation; liquidity can seize quickly.

Syd sf 07:02 GMT January 13, 2014
stocks

Update :

US -27 Germany +25 Japan -15 FTSE +8 China -12 Aust -7

bali sja 06:24 GMT January 13, 2014
euro 1.3728
Reply   
soon 1.3728 will be seen IMO

GVI Forex Blog 06:08 GMT January 13, 2014 Reply   
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV CREDIT CARD BALANCES (A$): 49.7B V 48.9B PRIOR; CREDIT CARD PURCHASES: 22.4B V 23.0B PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV HOME LOANS M/M: 1.1% V 1.0%E; INVESTMENT LENDING: 1.5% V 8.2% PRIOR

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Asian markets mixed with Nikkei225 closed - Source TradeTheNews.com

Hong Kong AceTrader 03:42 GMT January 13, 2014
AceTrader Jan 13: Weekly Out look on Crosses GBP/JPY
Reply   
WEEKLY GBP/JPY CROSS OUTLOOK - 170.48
13 Jan 2014 02:10GMT

Stg's retreat fm last Thur's 173.10 high signals
recovery fm 170.42 has ended there n fall fm Dec's
5-yr peak at 174.85 shud resume twd 169.75 later.

Trade fm short side n only abv said 173.10 wud
defer n risk stronger gain twd 173.94.


STRATEGY : Short at 173.00

POSITION : Short at 173.00

OBJECTIVE : 170.00

STOP-LOSS : 171.50

RES : 173.10/173.94/174.85

SUP : 170.42/169.75/168.46

GVI Forex Blog 03:22 GMT January 13, 2014 Reply   
Dow (16437.05, -0.05%) remains in a shallow sideways corrective mode between 16400 and

Morning Briefing : 13-Jan-2014 -0321 GMT

Syd sf 03:17 GMT January 13, 2014
Volkswagon
Reply   
To invest 7 bio in the US over 5 years... on some new models to release in 2015 .. not yet specified whether to be built in Chattanooga TN or in Mexico.

Syd sf 03:03 GMT January 13, 2014
stocks
Reply   
just reading off my CFD Stock Levels

USA -33 Japan -222 China +15 Germany +19 Aust -24

I'd say the FX Side of things will have to settle down -> until we see bigger stock market moves.

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:24 GMT January 13, 2014
AceTrader Jan 13: Dollar tumbles broadly after disappointing U.S. jobs report
Reply   
Market Review - 10/01/2014 21:06GMT

Dollar tumbles broadly after disappointing U.S. jobs report

Dollar weakened broadly on Friday after data showed that the U.S. economy added far less jobs than expected last month, although tapering of the Federal Reserve's stimulus program still lent some support.

Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar continued to edge higher from Thursday's New York low at 104.57 in Asia and Europe and then rose briefly to 105.40 ahead of the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data in New York morning, price tumbled sharply to 104.19 as data came in surprisingly weaker-than-expected and price later fell further below Monday's low at 103.91 to 103.83 before recovering due to short-covering ahead of the weekend.

U.S. official data showed that the U.S. non-farm payroll added 74,000 jobs in December, compared to expectations for a 196,000 increase, after an upwardly revised 241,000 rise the previous month. A separate report showed that the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 6.7% in December, from 7.0% in November.

The single currency rebounded to 1.3620 ahead of European opening on Friday but came in under pressure on active selling on eur/jpy cross, price fell to 1.3565 in New York morning and then rallied to 1.3687 on dollar's broad-based weakness after the disappointing U.S. jobs report before easing.

Cable traded in a relatively narrow range of 1.6472-1.6483 in Asia and then tumbled to 1.6403 in European morning as data showed that U.K. manufacturing production was flat in November, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% rise, after a downwardly revised 0.2% uptick the previous month. The pair later dropped further to 1.6381 in New York morning before rallying to 1.6518 on dollar's broad-based weakness on weak U.S. non-farm payroll data.

On the data front, official data showed that industrial production in France climbed 1.3% in November, exceeding expectations for a 0.4% rise, after a downwardly revised 0.5% decline the previous month

In the other news, Fed's Lacker said 'latest employment report showed dramatic fall in jobless rate, made substantial progress on unemployment; market expectations that interest rates will remain low may be bigger driver of market liquidity, equity prices than bond buys; healthcare act could have substantial economic impact, small business looking for how best to handle; Fed will be watching healthcare closely in next few years; wise not to cover-react to one month's employment report as a general principle; takes a couple of quarters to show a sustainable change in economic trends; would expect FOMC to discuss a similar reduction in bond buying pace at next meeting as the $10 billion agreed in Dec; markets have a good appreciation of FOMC's intentions, changes in forward curve more reflective of growth expectations.'

Data to be released next week :

Australia Home loans, Italy industrial production, U.K Lloyds employment confidence on Monday.

Japan current account balance, Economic watch DI, France current account, CPI, HICP, Italy CPI, HICP, U.K. PPI, CPI, RPI, ONS house price, EU industrial production, U.S. retail sales, import price index, export price index, Redbook retail sales, business inventories on Tuesday.

Japan machine tools orders, Germany GDP, Swiss retail sales, EU trade balance, US empire state mfg, PPI, Fed releases Beige Book report, Canada existing home sales on Wednesday.

Japan Tertiary industry index, machinery orders, domestic CGPI, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, U.K. RICS house prices, Germany CPI, HICP, Italy trade balance, EU CPI, U.S. CPI, Jobless claims, Net LT TIC flows, Philadelphia Fed survey, NAHB housing mrkt index on Thursday.

Japan consumer confidence, U.K. retail sales, U.S. housing starts, building permits, industrial production, capacity utilization, University of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday.

Brock Thor 01:06 GMT January 13, 2014
Trading Week - Monday

I am short Gbp/Jpy to170.00.
To this point I am + 85.6 pips.
My stop was lowered to 171.90.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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