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Forex Forum Archive for 01/15/2014

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Syd Sf 23:55 GMT January 15, 2014
Machinery orders were above expectations .. Nikkei should be up on the day.... $yen supportive

Cross yen has broken its relationship obviously.

GVI Forex john 22:21 GMT January 15, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Syd 21:24 GMT January 15, 2014
Faber: We Are in a Gigantic Financial Asset Bubble
Jan.14 Marc Faber Ltd. Managing Director & Founder Marc Faber gives his bold predictions for 2014 with Trish Regan and Adam Johnson on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart."


GVI Forex 19:16 GMT January 15, 2014
Strong US data boosted US interest rates, the US dollar and equities. NY (Empire) regional manufacturing activity and the national PPI both beat consensus

NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

GVI Forex john 17:35 GMT January 15, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

#EURUSD I would have liked to have seen more of a move in EURUSD today, but we have to take what we can get. As Jay always says, you should try to trade from the strong side of the market and with spot EURUSD below the 20-day average, the "stronger" positions have been the shorts until now.

GVI Forex 16:56 GMT January 15, 2014
Global Markets News
After a spate of dollar weakness that followed the conflicted December jobs report, the greenback has recovered its losses during the overnight Asian and European sessions. US Market Update: Return of the Rally

GVI Forex john 16:44 GMT January 15, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trade, prices in prime fixed income markets are lower as European and U.S. equities are mostly higher. The peripheral European bond prices are mostly up.

GVI Forex Blog 15:54 GMT January 15, 2014 Reply   
January 15, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, January 16. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- Tertiary Activity Index, AU- Jobs, US- CPI, Weekly Jobs, Philly Fed, NAHB

GVI Forex Data Outlook for January 15, 2014

GVI Forex john 15:52 GMT January 15, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

January 15, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, January 16. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- Tertiary Activity Index, AU- Jobs, US- CPI, Weekly Jobs, Philly Fed, NAHB

  • Far East: JP- Tertiary Activity Index, AU- Employment
  • Europe: EZ- HICP
  • North America: US- CPI, Weekly Jobless, TIC Data, Philly Fed, NAHB Index, Natural Gas

GVI Forex john 15:34 GMT January 15, 2014
Weekly EIA Crude Inventories

Crude Oil: -7.700 vs. -1.000 exp vs. -2.800 prev.
Gasoline: +6.200 vs. +2.500 exp vs. +6.200 prev.
Distillates:-1.020 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +5.830 prev.
Cap/Util: 90.0% vs. 92.0% vs. 92.3% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Belgrade TD 15:11 GMT January 15, 2014
Daily TA trade

Belgrade TD 17:47 GMT January 14, 2014
Sell AUDUSD ... Entry: ~0.898 Target: NA Stop: >0.905
1/3 out ~0.89 ... TS 40pips for rest ...

London Misha 14:12 GMT January 15, 2014
EURUSD - Indecisive Spinning Top following indecisive Doji on Daily Chart. So far today a very Long Black Marubozo.
USDJPY - Large Bullish Engulfing Pattern plus Opening White Marubozo after bounce up off Lower Tine of recent AP on Daily Chart.
GBPUSD - Bullish Harami follows Long Black Marubozo after Doji (possibly Bullish) on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - Possible Bullish Pipe Bottom on Daily Chart.
EURGBP - Bearish Harami on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Follow on to Bearish Pipe Top. Currently amidst support & resistance area on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - Possible Bearish Abandoned Pattern follows Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart but market heads into new decade highs!

tokyo ginko 13:40 GMT January 15, 2014

eur/usd going to target 1.3560, now at 1.3590...GT all

HK RF@ 13:36 GMT January 15, 2014
USD/CAD short squeeze above 1.1000?

GVI Forex john 13:31 GMT January 15, 2014

Headline: 0.40% vs. 0.40% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
Core: 0.30% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.

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Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:30 GMT January 15, 2014
Empire PMI

U.S. Empire PMI
+12.5 vs. +3.0 exp. vs. +2.2 prev.

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Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 13:23 GMT January 15, 2014
Deutsche Bank Suspends Traders Amid Foreign Exchange Investigations

Federal Reserve Said to Probe Banks Over Forex Fixing - bbrg

..."�The Fed has discretion whether to and how much to fine the banks if deficient controls or lack of supervision resulted in traders at these banks manipulating currency rates,� ...
Life is too peachy and comfortable for the banksters. The probe is confidential ... so I keep asking myself: will morals improve under the new Fed chairman ?

HK RF@ 13:00 GMT January 15, 2014
Deutsche Bank Suspends Traders Amid Foreign Exchange Investigations

LONDON � Deutsche Bank has suspended several traders amid a series of investigations into potential manipulation of the $5-trillion-a-day foreign exchange market, according to a person briefed on the matter.

The traders who were placed on leave worked in the German bank�s offices in New York, the person, who was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, said on Wednesday.

The suspensions are the latest development in a series of inquiries that have again raised questions about the global banking industry. More than a dozen traders at some of the world�s largest banks have been placed on leave amid questions about whether they colluded to fix benchmark currency rates.

Deutsche Bank, the largest trader of currencies with about 15.2 percent of the market, said it was cooperating with the investigations and would �take disciplinary action with regards to individuals if merited.�

The German newspaper Die Welt reported that at least one trader who worked in New York and traded Argentine pesos had been suspended.

Authorities in the United States, Britain, Switzerland and Hong Kong have all begun investigations, which are in the early stages.

Many of the world�s largest banks, including Citigroup, Barclays and UBS, have acknowledged that they are subject to those inquiries. Neither the banks nor any of the traders who have been suspended have been accused of wrongdoing.

Since the investigations became public, several banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank, have restricted the ability of traders to engage in chat rooms where traders from their banking rivals are present.

The investigation has focused on a series of instant messages that earned traders at various banks the nickname �the cartel.�


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:48 GMT January 15, 2014
Traders Call for Lower EURUSD in 2014
jay meisler

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GVI Forex john 12:14 GMT January 15, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
#TradingIdeas - When I look at changes in the USD value of the majors today (EUR,CHF, GBP, JPY), net changes in all the pairs are minimal, except in the EURUSD which has eased by 62 pips. Spot EURUSD (1.3610) has distanced itself below the 20-day average (1.3675). This provides a momentum point (20-day avg) to watch today, which could influence the overall TONE of the market.

Tallinn viies 12:11 GMT January 15, 2014
Reuters story...
USD/CNY's managed decline continues, as the USD rises, the Fed tapers and the U.S. economy improves. Whether the trend alone is a factor for EUR/USD traders to fret over is debatable. The impact of the spin-offs to a managed USD/CNY fall is certainly a factor for EUR/USD traders to ponder. The FX reserve rose by USD 500 billion in 2013, near double levels deemed too large by China. Diversification is therefore certain, and the euro's liquidity makes it the most attractive alternate. Where euro purchases were once restricted to buying weakness during the crisis, the easing of stress in the euro zone, which has other investors seeing the high yields of peripheral bonds attractive, surely makes the euro an even more attractive buy for the world's biggest reserve manager. With dips less frequent and shallow, diversification may have a rising influence, especially as interventions picked up massively in Q4.

Syd Sf 11:06 GMT January 15, 2014

I watch only global stock CFD's .. Normally I state that in each post but today I didn't .. Apols.

GVI Forex 11:03 GMT January 15, 2014
Global Markets News
The European session began under the assumption of a strong USD environment following the Tuesday US Retail Sales data. Greenback at 1-week highs among many major pairs EU Market Update: Emerging market currencies remain under presser on Fed taper concerns

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:59 GMT January 15, 2014

sf, you need to be careful equating futuresd to ash equities as it depends on what the fair value is ahead of the opening. Futures could be +20 but that equates to a negatuive cash opening or vice versa. No cloue what the current fair vakue is today but CNBC does post it for the various indices before the opening.

GVI Forex Blog 10:40 GMT January 15, 2014 Reply   

The Fed's Fisher and Plosser late Tuesday both spoke out in favor of additional Fed tapering. The two are both widely seen as policy hawks. Their comments suggested the Fed will continue to taper its asset purchases.

Fed hawks indicate Fed tapering likely to continue

Syd Sf 10:37 GMT January 15, 2014

Gbpyen I'm expecting test of 171.70 and 172.25 ... bottom may already be in on the day .. As US Guys don't seem concerned with corrections.

Syd 10:35 GMT January 15, 2014
UK fin min fires warning shots at the EU
UK chancellor George Osborne will today make a speech to a group of Eurosceptics in which he claims that the EU is falling behind India and China in its reforms and must step up to the plate if it wants to halt the decline

We can�t go on like this.

The biggest economic risk facing Europe doesn�t come from those who want reform and renegotiation, it comes from a failure to reform and renegotiate.It is the status quo which condemns the people of Europe to an ongoing economic crisis and continuing decline

Today�s speech comes after the Tory leadership rejected a call from 95 of its MPs to allow Parliament to block EU laws.Earlier this week Foreign Secretary William Hague said the European Union�s rules had to be followed by all its members and the backbenchers� plan was unworkable

Syd Sf 10:33 GMT January 15, 2014
My thoughts are .. $yen the slower it rises the further it goes

Nomura was saying they expected to see 105.50 with in 5 trading days

Futures in USA are +20 .. So on the day I guess we will test 104.60/70 and collect any weak trading stops... Sitting above 104.50

No idea eurusd .. Seems such a waste of time at the moment.

ottawa ottawa 10:29 GMT January 15, 2014
Funds selling AUDNZD piles on the pressure

I have buy orders massively around 1.0575...a good brick wall
good luck

Syd 10:15 GMT January 15, 2014
Funds selling AUDNZD piles on the pressure

Hearing that real money ( non-leveraged) funds have been selling this pair aggressively again this morning on expectation of interest rate hikes by the RBNZ in March Over 200 tics lower in 48 hours. Low so far 1.0652 not seen since Nov 2008 and next support comes in at 1.0630 the 2008 low, then 1.0600 and 1.0565 Currently 1.0661

GVI Forex john 10:11 GMT January 15, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are lower after hawkish comments from Fed hawks Plosser and Fisher late Tuesday. The peripheral European bond prices are mixed to higher. Far East shares ended mostly higher. European Equity markets are up.

Amman wfakhoury 10:02 GMT January 15, 2014
Wfakhoury eur/jpy

Gold 1230.50 confirmed ..will be reached.

Dubai J.E 10:00 GMT January 15, 2014

U.K / J.B.

It was great to see your post as i have followed you many times in the past with great success. Will you be trailing your stop or do you leave them still in place . I have 40 points profit as was going to bring stop to when i went short do you concur ???

Appreciate any advice...

ottawa ottawa 09:51 GMT January 15, 2014
Wfakhoury eur/jpy

Great thank you...I have buy order for Gold

Around 1215 ??? any take..with heavy loading around 1190...

Amman wfakhoury 09:28 GMT January 15, 2014
Wfakhoury eur/jpy

my sys gives direction only for gbpusd , eurusd,eurjpy,audusd and gold ...but can be used for all pairs

Amman wfakhoury 09:22 GMT January 15, 2014
Wfakhoury eur/jpy

gbpjpy is not in my sys

bali sja 09:03 GMT January 15, 2014

viies, i thought last time you said you were jumping ship to be an euro seller? back to the original ship?

ottawa ottawa 09:03 GMT January 15, 2014
Wfakhoury eur/jpy

Buy order around 170.30, the other is for GBP/AUD

ottawa ottawa 09:02 GMT January 15, 2014
Wfakhoury eur/jpy

good morning

any takes on GBP/Jpy


I have buy order around 182.70 ???

Amman wfakhoury 08:40 GMT January 15, 2014
Wfakhoury eur/jpy

Amman wfakhoury 09:17 GMT 01/14/2014
if 1hr closed above 141.77 then 142.60 is coming.
having in mind 14077 should be reached again.
back again to 141.77

tokyo ginko 08:31 GMT January 15, 2014

added shorted eur long for break of 1.3560 convincingly ...

Tallinn viies 08:25 GMT January 15, 2014
still no euro position.
plan to buy today at 1,3580. stop at 1,3520. target 1,3880

NY Bob 05:55 GMT January 15, 2014
Wfakhoury eur/jpy
You are the successful trader on this pair eur/jpy. Please post your signal for this pair sir.

bali sja 05:42 GMT January 15, 2014
buy euro
lets try some scalp buy euro 1.3636, stop 1.3617, for 1.3654

GVI Forex Blog 05:34 GMT January 15, 2014 Reply   
(CN) CHINA DEC AGGREGATE FINANCING (CNY): 1.23T V 1.15TE - (CN) CHINA Q4 FOREIGN RESERVES: $3.82T V $3.66T PRIOR QUARTER - (CN) CHINA DEC M2 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 13.6% (16-month low) V 13.9%E; M1 MONEY Asian Market Update: World Bank raises global growth forecast on strength in developed economies; China new loans hit 1-year lows - Source

GVI Forex Blog 03:37 GMT January 15, 2014 Reply   
Dow (16373.86, +0.71%) bounced from 16240 creating a Bullish Harami pattern. It was

Morning Briefing : 15-Jan-2014 -0335 GMT

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:19 GMT January 15, 2014

1.3551= 100 day mva

tokyo ginko 02:07 GMT January 15, 2014

usd strength across the board, doing some catch up..but 1.3560 have to go to see lower

Brock Thor 01:47 GMT January 15, 2014
Just took a dive wonder why?

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:36 GMT January 15, 2014
AceTrader Jan 15: Dollar strengthens against the yen after upbeat U.S. retail sales
Market Review - 14/01/2014 21:42GMT

Dollar strengthens against the yen after upbeat U.S. retail sales

U.S. dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Tuesday after data showed that U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in December, bolstering the outlook for the economy going into 2014.

Versus the Japanese yen, dollar found support at 103.02 at Asian open on Tuesday and climbed higher to 103.52 after data showed that trade deficit in the Japan widened to 1,254.3 billion yen in November, price later dropped to 103.23 at Asian midday but only to rally to as high as 104.29 near New York close due to the release of better-than-expected U.S. retail sales data.

The Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% last month, beating expectations for a 0.1% increase. Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, climbed 0.7% in December, above forecasts for a 0.4% increase.

The single currency traded sideways against the dollar in Asia and then dropped to 1.3649 shortly after European opening, however, 'euro-supportive' comments from European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny lifted price sharply higher to 1.3699 in European morning but profit-taking ahead of 1.3700 pressured price lower ahead of New York open. Later, euro briefly fell to 1.3658 after release of upbeat U.S. retail sales and then traded sideways for rest of New York session.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said on Tuesday that 'there was a potential upside to the ECB�s growth forecast for this year. The ECB revised its growth forecast for 2014 slightly higher in December, saying it now expects growth of 1.1%.'

The British pound moved in a choppy fashion versus the dollar on Tuesday. Cable dropped to 1.6368 in early European trading and then rose sharply to 1.6447 in tandem with euro and active cross buying in sterling in European morning, price then swiftly tanked to 1.6396 after the U.K. inflation data but later rose further to 1.6465 in New York before retreating.

On the data front, U.K. reported that the annual rate of consumer inflation rose 2.0% in December, slowing from 2.1% in November. It was the first time since 2009 that the U.K. inflation rate was in line with the Bank of England�s official target of 2%.

In the other news, Fed's Plosser says 'prefers to end bond purchases before late 2014; economy 'on firmer footing than it has been for the past several years; expects 6.2% U.S. unemployment by year end; rise in inflation toward 2%; Dec jobs growth likely hit by cold weather; drop in workforce participation mostly driven by demographics.'

Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said on Tuesday that "the droves of Americans dropping out of the work force may not be a problem that needs to be fixed with policies; the U.S. labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, fell 0.2 percentage point to 62.8 percent in December, returning to the more than 35-year low hit in October."

Data to be released on Wednesday:

Japan machine tools orders, Germany GDP, Swiss retail sales, EU trade balance, US empire state mfg, PPI, Fed releases Beige Book report and Canada existing home sales.

tokyo ginko 01:17 GMT January 15, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

off the table small amt here @ 104.36

ed kw 00:35 GMT January 15, 2014

300 pip pivot???????????????????????????????

dc CB 00:19 GMT January 15, 2014
Pippa Malmgren
part 2



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