GVI Forex john 23:13 GMT January 16, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
January 16, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, January 17.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: GB- Retail Salees, US- Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production, University
of Michigan Survey, Commitment of Traders Report.
- Far East: No Major Data.
- Europe: GB- Retail Sales.
- North America: US- Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production, University of Michigan Survey, Commitment of Traders Report.
PAR 21:25 GMT January 16, 2014
Low Interest rates kill investments
Reply
Corporations Have Record Cash: They Also Have Record-er Debt, As Net Leverage Soars 15% Above Its 2008 Peak
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2014 15:42 -0500
There is a reason why activism was the best performing hedge fund "strategy" of 2013: as we wrote and predicted back in November 2012 in "Where The Levered Corporate "Cash On The Sidelines" Is Truly Going", US corporations - susceptible to soothing and not so soothing (ahem Icahn) suggestions by major shareholders - would lever to the hilt with cheap debt and use it all not for CapEx and growth, but for short-term shareholder gratification such as buybacks and dividends. A year later we found just how accurate this prediction would be when as we reported ten days ago US corporations invested a whopping half a trillion in buying back their stock, incidentally at all time high prices.
Putting aside the stupidity of this action for corporate IRRs, if not for activist hedge fund P&Ls, another finding has emerged, one that was also predicted back in 2012. Because in addition to still soaring mountains of cash, corporations have quietly amassed even greater mountains... of debt. In fact, as SocGen reveals, net debt, or total debt less cash, has risen to a new all time high, and is now 15% higher than it was at its prior peak just before the financial crisis!
philadelphia caba 21:22 GMT January 16, 2014
aud/nzd
Reply
Buy AUDNZD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Buying all the way to the parity, if we ever get there.
KL KL 21:18 GMT January 16, 2014
BUY - SELL later
Reply
Top day .... la la la
yesterday...
AUDUSD and Long here .87835...ultra relentless.....wheee...
chased it to .8777
Today Friday, option expiry day....in USA tomorrow....but today is Friday Asia....Cover AUDUSD long nicely .88214
out 1/2....then 1/8 ... 1/8 four times or stops in place .8915....
off to nice breakfast and lunch and dinner....getting Fat....but we have global warming here to help reduce via home made SUANNA....LOL....glgt imvho,...DFM. DYOR...DTM...
Livingston nh 20:13 GMT January 16, 2014
K.I.S.S.
Reply
a simple measure (Simplistic?) for the first half of the year may be the chart hi/lo from May to September Sugar Rush (when the Great Communicator dropped the mike) -- look to the taper expectations and the "pricing in" moves after FOMC in May - these levels should be broken
GVI Forex Blog 20:00 GMT January 16, 2014
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: GB- Retail Sales, US- Housing Starts Permits, Industrial Production, University of Michigan Survey, Commitment of Traders Report
U.S. CPI data and weekly Jobless Claims data were in line with market estimates and hasd no market impact.
U.S. data in line. Aussie Jobs weak. Final EZ CPI steady.
PAR 19:31 GMT January 16, 2014
Bernanke
Bernanke has been wrong on most of his predictions most of the time (remember no nationwide housing crisis etc ) so why should he be correct this time . He just talking up the FED postions and sounding narcistic .
Syd Sf 18:46 GMT January 16, 2014
Stocks
Yeah it's all timing .. I was thinking up to 60 ish and down to 103.75
I'm not sure any bids in stocks are going to last too long... Today was pretty disappointing.
Mtl JP 18:37 GMT January 16, 2014
EUR/USD
20day 1.3666
50 day 1.3616
100 day 1.3555
USA ZEUS 18:23 GMT January 16, 2014
EUR/USD
Reply
Buy EUR/USD now while it's still under 1.36 and enjoy 1.37-1.38 later.
Cheers!
Magelang 18:21 GMT January 16, 2014
EUR JPY
Reply
Buy EURJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR JPY IS OVER BOUGHT
PREDICTION IS LONG TREND UP
Mtl JP 18:14 GMT January 16, 2014
Stocks
Syd SF numbnuts Abe & gang are unlikely to give up and are likely to turn up both their yikyak as well as their policy aggression against the market.
Bottom Line: buy usdyen on dips
Dubai Tony 17:45 GMT January 16, 2014
AUD/USD
Reply
AUDUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
What can we expect of the AUD/USD pair for friday.
Syd Sf 17:43 GMT January 16, 2014
Stocks
Reply
So we learned today that banks are not going to. Make as much money in the future as the past .. Profitable things sold or closed down.
Retailers need a serious niche to make money .. Competing against amazon is painful if they compete with your stores.
Basically need a boom in energy and healthcare I suppose.
Japan is the stock market to buy .. They are going to throw the kitchen sink at it .. To get it higher.... Just the timing of it all is important.
Syd Sf 17:34 GMT January 16, 2014
$yen
Well .. If stocks recover into the close .. We see a rally back to 58/60
Where I'm sure many longs wud like to exit... At this time.
I do think people are still bullish $yen but they dislike weak US numbers and weak stocks.
GVI Forex john 17:08 GMT January 16, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Late in European trade, prices in prime fixed income markets are broadly higher as European and U.S. equities are mostly down. Aussie 10-yr yields are lower following the weak December trade figures. The peripheral European bond prices are mostly up.
Mtl JP 17:02 GMT January 16, 2014
U.S. TIC flows
Boehner: U.S. should not default on debt
-
A call to own and hold Gold. Outside the banking system.
ed kw 16:55 GMT January 16, 2014
Global Markets News
USD Retail Sales Less Autos (DEC)
Medium
0.7%
more BS
SAME AS FED
NY Bob 16:42 GMT January 16, 2014
Wfakhoury eur/jpy
Amman wfakhoury 09:17 GMT 01/14/2014
-------------------------
if 1hr closed above 141.77 then 142.60 is coming.
having in mind 14077 should be reached again.
------------------------
back again to 141.77
Exactly the place you said sir. Master trade from your end.
now what is the signal for this pair.
tokyo ginko 16:31 GMT January 16, 2014
Bernake
Bernake had sleepless night during the crisis..I don't think he consider himself an elitist..
Mtl JP 16:26 GMT January 16, 2014
Bernake
Bernanke yaks about past, present and future
-
Isn't it preposterous that an elitist group thinks it can set interest rates ? That it is beyond reproach and much less accountable responsibility for the current unemployment and recession ?
GVI Forex Blog 16:22 GMT January 16, 2014
Reply
January 16, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, January 17. Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: GB- Retail Salees, US- Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production, University of Michigan Survey, Commitment of Traders Report.
GVI Forex Data Outlook for January 17, 2014
GVI Forex john 16:20 GMT January 16, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply
January 16, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, January 17.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: GB- Retail Salees, US- Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production, University
of Michigan Survey, Commitment of Traders Report.
- Far East: No Major Data.
- Europe: GB- Retail Sales.
- North America: US- Housing Starts/Permits, Industrial Production, University of Michigan Survey, Commitment of Traders Report.
HK [email protected] 16:15 GMT January 16, 2014
eurusd
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3600 up to 1.36240 gradually Target: 1.3485 Stop: 1.3660
/
Syd Sf 16:12 GMT January 16, 2014
Bernake
Reply
He is getting ready to speak shortly .. He will either save or sink the market.
GVI Forex john 16:08 GMT January 16, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
#EURUSD Some nice calls by Jay today in EURUSD. He is very good at picking levels that seem to work for day-traders. Myself, I prefer a slightly longer term view. If you would like to see his trades on GVIForex, contact him at: [email protected]
Livingston nh 15:43 GMT January 16, 2014
eurusd
jp- cable 1.63 looks ready to crack - wkly 1.6150 (21 ma) in sight -- still waiting for expanded interest rate spreads to put the hammer on this one
Mtl JP 15:21 GMT January 16, 2014
eurusd
anyone have a taste for gbpusd ?
puppy looking heavy and 50dma support weak
Mtl JP 15:14 GMT January 16, 2014
eurusd
1.3550 = Jan low. break below would likely target 1.35
Tallinn viies 15:05 GMT January 16, 2014
eurusd
Reply
day orders ...
plan to buy euro at 1,3552.
plan to sell euro at 1,3683.
stop loss 50 pips away.
will see.
USA ZEUS 15:00 GMT January 16, 2014
GBP/JPY
Brock Thor 21:50 GMT January 14, 2014
Thank you friend. You are too kind. Fell off my rocker when I read that! Who says you can't have fun in the lion's den?
Cheers and best of the best to you!
Belgrade TD 14:41 GMT January 16, 2014
Daily TA trade
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:14 GMT 01/16/2014
Tnx Jay ... so far so good :)
Paris ib 14:40 GMT January 16, 2014
U.S. TIC flows
Outflows for the 12 months to November 2013 are now running at USD 200 billion. That's a turn around from the peak of USD 900 billion in inflows 2008 circa (from memory). That's the longer term trend to watch. This confirms anecdotal evidence of money leaving Treasuries and moving into other bond markets with European markets seeing strong inflows.
Paris ib 14:29 GMT January 16, 2014
U.S. TIC flows
Taking into account transactions in both foreign and U.S. securities, the net foreign sales of long-term securities were $29.3 billion. After including adjustments, such as estimates of unrecorded principal payments to foreigners on U.S. asset-backed securities, overall net foreign sales of long-term securities are estimated to have been $40.6 billion in November.
Official TIC data
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:14 GMT January 16, 2014
Daily TA trade
TD, nice trading this year, thanks for the timely posts.
Belgrade TD 14:06 GMT January 16, 2014
Daily TA trade
Belgrade TD 08:54:34 GMT - 01/16/2014
Sell USDCHF ... Entry: ~0.909 Target: na Stop: >0,91 ... intraday or ...
///
1/3 out ~0,904 ... reducing risk & stop at BE for rest
Paris ib 13:58 GMT January 16, 2014
U.S. TIC flows
No that's wrong information, the story was on Bloomberg:
"The U.S. data showed net long-term portfolio investment outflow was $29.3 billion in November after a revised inflow the month before of $28.7 billion, the Treasury’s figures showed."
October was previously reported as an outflow, now it's an inflow. The 12 month cumulative data though confirms an outflow for the 12 months to November and that's crucial.
At any rate the release will happen in two minutes.
TIC November
Livingston nh 13:56 GMT January 16, 2014
U.S. CPI & Weekly Jobless
big continuing claims drop result of expiration of extended benefits program - this will have an indirect effect on unemployment rate calculation as the affected workers drop out // GDP deflator above CPI inflation rate again -- unusual pattern which may revert to normal this year
GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT January 16, 2014
U.S. CPI & Weekly Jobless
U.S. Weekly jobless claims stabilizing?
Click on chart for ten-year history
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:41 GMT January 16, 2014
$yen
Sf, good post
Paris ib 13:38 GMT January 16, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
The TIC data was not released early. There was some kind of slip up, but the data has now been removed from the website and is expected to be re released on schedule at 9:00. Apparently the data confirmed a continued OUTFLOW of capital from long term U.S. securities, not a reduction in INFLOWS (that's a slightly different concept). What is happening with this number is a bit peculiar. We have had outflows recorded for three or four months now but revisions to monthly data is massive. What needs watching in the 12th month cumulative number, which is now shows OUTFLOWS for the year. Frankly with the kinds of revisions we are seeing the monthly data is starting to look a lot like noise and little else.
London Misha 13:34 GMT January 16, 2014
Observations
Reply
EURUSD - Bearish Long Black Marubozo follows indecisive Spinning Top follows indecisive Doji on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - Follow on to large Bullish Engulfing + Opening White Marubozo & bounce up off Lower Tine of recent AP on Daily Chart.
GBPUSD - Now possible Bearish Stick Sandwich after Bullish Harami after Long Black Marubozo & Doji (possibly bullish) on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - Follow on to Bullish Pipe Bottom on Daily Chart but halts ahead of recent Downtrend & Neckline.
EURGBP - Possible but seemingly unlikely Bullish Hammer follows Bearish Harami on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - 3rd Black Crow follows on to Bearish Pipe Top on Daily Chart.
USDINR - Market tests Jul-to-date Uptrend on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - Bullish Engulfing Pattern as market heads to new decade highs!
USDBRL - Bullish Engulfing Pattern with closing White Marubozo & possible Double Bottom on Daily Chart.
HK Kevin 13:31 GMT January 16, 2014
USD/JPY
Reply
EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY refuse to going up with USD/JPY. Worth watching the next move
Mtl JP 13:17 GMT January 16, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
john TIC for November shows total net TIC flows down ‐$16bn
with Japan and China still major buyers of Lew's paper just as the FED is claiming to be "tapering" its enthusiasm
Belgrade TD 12:47 GMT January 16, 2014
Daily TA trade
Sell OTHER
Entry: ~1,093 Target: ~1,08/- Stop: >1,097 *4h/close
for further growth, we need new buyers so sold USD/CAD here ... for healthy 100+ pips corrections ... cautiously ...
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:40 GMT January 16, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
Outside week for the AUD but it is weak against most crosses (one reason for the overnight pop in the EURUSD). Take a look at a AUDNZD chart as diverging fundamentals drive the technicals.
GVI Forex john 12:23 GMT January 16, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
Chart of last weeks (latest) AUD COT positioning (Market short AUDUSD).
GVI Forex john 12:22 GMT January 16, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
Chart Last weeks (Tuesday data) CAD COT data very long USDCAD (short CAD). We get new data tomorrow.
GVI Forex john 12:18 GMT January 16, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
Reply
#TradeIdeas Just checking out the AUD and CAD as promised, Both look especially stressed after poor employment reports for December. Is this part of a larger picture?
USDCAD is in a more developed upward pattern (weaker CAD). Spot (1.0932) is well above the 20-day avg (1.0721). The COT report shows the market is has already established a significant short CAD position. Jay often points out its important to watch the slope of the 20-day avg.
AUDUSD has made new lows for the move following the poor employment report. Also the COT report from last week also suggests that the markets are already well positioned short the Aussie. Spot (0.8784) is below the 20-day average (0.8924), but the recent slope in the 20-day moving average is fairly flat. Perhaps it turns south now?
We'd love to hear your trading strategies. In general I worry that its may be too late to jump into USDCAD, but perhaps tha AUD is in for another downleg?
Syd Sf 11:43 GMT January 16, 2014
$yen
Reply
Personal view we see it down to 104.20/35 later in the day.
104.90 was basically the high of the day in nikkei .. Nikkei 200 points lower now... So 30/95 range for me.
Probably sell some gbpyen 171.30 on the day looking for 169.80
Eurusd short but it's doing ntg.
GVI Forex john 10:03 GMT January 16, 2014
Eurozone HICP (CPI)
EZ HICP. In line with flash estimates.
GVI Forex john 09:59 GMT January 16, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are higher. The peripheral European bond prices are mixed to higher. Far East shares ended mostly higher. European Equity markets are mixed.
GVI Forex john 09:47 GMT January 16, 2014
Australia Employment
EARLIER: AU Employment data much weaker than expected. The unemployment rate rose. AUDUSD weaker.
Tallinn viies 09:19 GMT January 16, 2014
eurusd
Reply
Reuters BUZZ-EONIA shows excess liquidity is making markets nervous - RTRS
16-Jan-2014 11:11
Excess liquidity has fallen below EUR135bn to EUR131.1bn following ECB liquidity operations (Full Story). Excess liquidity is making the money markets nervous
the O/N EONIA rate was 0.21% on Wednesday, up from around 0.15%. More important, the 1-mth is also trading at 0.21bps, suggesting the market feels higher EONIA fixings may become a more permanent feature. Euro zone money markets still show interest rates at 0.0-0.25%. But O/N EONIA's rise from sub-0.10% to above 0.20% is effectively a modest tightening of policy, despite the ECB's refi rate cut in November.
Belgrade TD 08:54 GMT January 16, 2014
Daily TA trade
Sell USDCHF
Entry: ~0.909 Target: na Stop: >0,91
intraday or ...
kl fs 08:08 GMT January 16, 2014
cable
Reply
going long 1.6342, stop under 1.6250, target 1.65, 1.67 and 1.70
jkt abel 07:49 GMT January 16, 2014
audnzd
Reply
the pair is so close to parity now, would be a great miss if not tested, just a matter of when IMHO
Hong Kong Ahe 06:25 GMT January 16, 2014
NZD/USD
Reply
Just read a financial news saying NZD is the outperformer of the year. Quotes from Credit Agricole CIB:
-Year-to-date NZD is best performing currency in the G10 - up 1.5% against the greenback. In nominal trade-weighted terms, NZD reached a new 30-year high according to the BOE's effective exchange rate index. The key driver for NZD remains the outlook for the RBNZ. Indeed, in a world dominated by easy money, the RBNZ remains the only game in town for those seeking a hawkish central bank. The outlook for the January central bank meeting is split down the middle (OIS pricing in a 50/50 of 25bp rate hike vs. no hike).
-However, even if the RBNZ decides to remain on hold this month a rate hike is a matter of when - not if. After all, the OIS market is pricing in nearly 118bp worth of tightening over the next year. Contrary to many other G10 currencies, rate hikes are likely to boost portfolio flows, especially from Japanese investors. Furthermore, New Zealand's export base is likely to remain supportive of New Zealand's terms of trade, helping boost NZD.
Unquote...
It is not the factor of strength/hawkish Central Bank to make its strength. In 2013, the whole year some big fund nearly manipulate the range of NZD/USD by playing the cross of AUD/NZD (NZD/USD/AUD) and protecting their options. All news or move of other economic data are irrelevant as it is being manipulated. And it is carrying on in 2014.
jkt abel 06:23 GMT January 16, 2014
audusd
short audusd 0.8811, stop 0.8853, target open
support clearly broken
unless a strong comeback above 0.8870
bali sja 06:03 GMT January 16, 2014
audusd
Reply
audusd was slammed pretty bad, someone wants it lower still...
Hong Kong AceTrader 04:12 GMT January 16, 2014
AceTrader Jan 16: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
Reply
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 12110
16 Jan 2014 01:31GMT
As usd has staged a rebound fm 12040 (Mon), sug-
gesting the pullback fm 12175 has possibly ended
there, abv 12125 confirms this view, 12170 later.
Buy at market for this move with stop as indica-
ted n only below 12085 aborts bullishness, 12040.
STRATEGY : Buy at market
OBJECTIVE : 12170
STOP-LOSS : 12080
RES : 12125/12170/12255
SUP : 12085/12040/12000
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:09 GMT January 16, 2014
AceTrader Jan 16: Dollar strengthens broadly after upbeat U.S. data
Reply
Market Review - 15/01/2014 22:09GMT
Dollar strengthens broadly after upbeat U.S. data
The greenback rose further against the other major currencies on Wednesday after data showed that U.S. producer price inflation rose in December, while a separate report showed that manufacturing activity in the Empire state rose far more strongly than forecast in the current month.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar rose above Tuesday's high of 104.29 to 104.47 in Asia and then traded sideways in Europe, however, price found support at 104.22 in New York morning and later rose to further to 104.70 near New York close on dollar's broad-based firmness after release of upbeat U.S. data.
U.S. producer price inflation rose 0.4% last month, the biggest increase since June, recovering from a 0.1% decline in November and was 1.2% higher from a year earlier. U.S. Core PPI was up 0.3% in December and rose 1.4% on a year-over-year basis, compared to expectations for a monthly increase of 0.1% and an annual gain of 1.3%. A separate report showed that manufacturing activity in the Empire State expanded at the fastest pace since May 2012 this month, Fed's general business conditions index jumped to 12.51 in January from an upwardly revised 2.22 in December.
The single currency fell below Tuesday's low at 1.3649 to 1.3627 in Asia. Despite a recovery to 1.3645, release of lower-than-expected Germany 2013 GDP pressured price again in European morning and price tanked to 1.3608 and then further to 1.3582 in New York morning after release of robust U.S. data before stabilising.
Germany's Federal Statistics Office said Wednesday the economy expanded by just 0.4% in 2013 after increasing by 0.7% in 2012, as the crisis in the euro zone acted as a drag on growth. Market had been expecting growth of 0.5%.
Cable traded in a choppy fashion on Wednesday but ended lower on dollar's broad-based firmness. Despite retreating from Asian high of 1.6443 in tandem with euro to 1.6377 in European morning, active cross-buying of sterling due to comments from British Financial Minister Osborne lifted price to 1.6437, however, renewed selling interest capped gain there and price later dropped further to a fresh 3-week low of 1.6323 in New York morning after upbeat U.S. data.
Britian's Financial Minister Osborne said Wednesday that 'stalling EU-US free trade deal would be a betrayal; open to idea of smaller number of EU states liberalizing trade in certain areas without overall EU agreement; worried that Eurozone countries could use their voting weight to rewrite EU rules, impose laws on UK's financial services industry; there's a "very real risk" that badly thought through EU laws will be imposed on the UK, says damaging city of London would be bad for all of Europe; non-euro states need their rights legally protected if countries like Britain are to remain in the EU; treaties are not fit for purpose; doesn't want Britain to be forced to choose between joining the euro and leaving the EU.'
Data to be release on Thursday:
Japan Tertiary industry index, machinery orders, domestic CGPI, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, U.K. RICS house prices, Germany CPI, HICP, Italy trade balance, EU CPI, U.S. CPI, Jobless claims, Net LT TIC flows, Philadelphia Fed survey and NAHB housing mrkt index.
Syd Sf 01:00 GMT January 16, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
Yeah .. I sold out of my nikkei too 10 pips below you .. Sold some eurusd target 13530.
All yen cross hit resistance pretty hard so we see what breaks loose from here.
Belgrade TD 00:40 GMT January 16, 2014
Daily TA trade
Belgrade TD 17:47 GMT January 14, 2014
Sell AUDUSD ... Entry: ~0.898 Target: NA Stop: >0.905
///
1/3 out ~0.89 ... TS 40pips for rest ...
///
another 1/3 out ~0,882 ... new stop for last 1/3 at 0,889
tokyo ginko 00:35 GMT January 16, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
usd/jpy should stall here for a breather.cap 104.80
meanwhile eur/usd should be hammered..
GT all
GVI Forex 00:34 GMT January 16, 2014
Australia Jobs Disappoint
Reply
AUSTRALIA DEC EMPLOYED PERSONS -22600 M/M; MNI MEDIAN +7500 AUSTRALIA DEC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 5.8%; MNI MEDIAN 5.8%
AUD falls...
many more chart points
We have created a section where there is a wealth of information that any trader should find useful. See the following link to access it:
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.