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Forex Forum Archive for 01/20/2014

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Syd 23:51 GMT January 20, 2014
AUD Just how low can the Aussie dollar go?
Just how low can the Aussie dollar go? For his views on this and the outlook for the RBA cash rate, Macquarie's Martin Lakos joins Switzer TV.


Syd sf 23:03 GMT January 20, 2014
looking at short term charts euryen looks 10/40 but a move above there takes us into 141.90

gbpyen 70/40 -- same deal needs a couple of closes above 50 to really push it to a new range .. looks 173/5 ... but $yen going to have to do some more of the heavy lifting.

seems to me that you can wait and when $yen finally shows some momentum follow along... as with the compressed xxx/yen ranges should be directional.

heard the first view today $yen to 101 .. their view was US Economy Slower than expected // US Yields lower.

pretty boring from this trading screen this morning.

GVI Forex john 22:28 GMT January 20, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

January 20, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, January 21. Updated: Trading Events Calendar


  • Far East: Holiday .
  • Europe: DE- ZEW Survey.
  • North America: US- No Major Data.

Jerusalem KB 22:19 GMT January 20, 2014

Entry: 171.95 Target: 173.85 Stop: 170.40

buy stop

GVI Forex john 22:15 GMT January 20, 2014
New Zealand CPI

NZ CPI flat, as expected.

GVI Forex john 22:02 GMT January 20, 2014
New Zealand CPI

New Zealand CPI 4Q13
QQ: +0.1%% vs. -0.1%exp. vs. +0.90% prev.
YY: 1.60% vs. 1.50% exp. vs. +1.40%% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex 22:01 GMT January 20, 2014
The US holiday resulted in a lacklustre session for markets. The US dollar traded slightly weaker, while US interest rate and equity futures ranged sideways.

NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

Jerusalem KB 21:59 GMT January 20, 2014

Entry: 1.3555 Target: Stop: 1.3610


Jerusalem KB 21:51 GMT January 20, 2014

Entry: 1.3585 Target: 1.3448-1.3378 Stop: 1.3668

pending order

Jerusalem KB 21:49 GMT January 20, 2014

Entry: Target: Stop:

Jerusalem KB 00:06 GMT January 9, 2014
Pipshunter: Reply
Entry: 0.9080 Target: 0.9165-0.9215 Stop: 0.9010

hit lose with -70pips

Syd 20:20 GMT January 20, 2014
America College Debt Crisis nobody want to talk about !!
Student debt is nearing 1 Trillion dollars. Could this be the next bubble to burst?


ed kw 20:07 GMT January 20, 2014
what - me worry ?

China�s---aud or SPI 200 are correlated now but aud banks are at stress point aud cant drop to fast?

Mtl JP 18:54 GMT January 20, 2014
what - me worry ?
Crunch Escalates as Money Funds Rival Shadow Banks: China Credit

Bloomberg News Jan 19, 2014 - A doubling in China’s money-market funds in the past six months is draining bank deposits and raising the risk of financial failures during cash crunches, according to Fitch Ratings. .../..
China central bank offers emergency funds to banks amid latest cash squeeze

(Reuters) Jan 20, 2014 - China's central bank has provided emergency funding support to commercial banks and will add more cash on Tuesday, as authorities respond to a spike in cash rates ahead of a major holiday, the bank announced on Monday.

The move by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) comes after the interest rate that banks charge each other for short-term loans spiked in recent days. .../..
they call it "unprecedented" - at least for China

Mtl JP 18:20 GMT January 20, 2014
Better than expected, but not very good news anyway.

and a not so subtle hint about where the FED's priorities lie:

cbc's Jeff Cox: Think you know what the Fed will do? Guess again

...Minutes note the dangers of how "the complexity and interconnectedness of large financial institutions, along with some apparent increases in investor appetite for higher-yielding assets and associated pressures on underwriting standards remained potential sources of risk to the financial system." ...

GVI Forex john 18:11 GMT January 20, 2014
Chart Points -- Daily Trading Points
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands

Mtl JP 17:54 GMT January 20, 2014
Better than expected, but not very good news anyway.

it is not just Chinese GDP numbers
US retail sales - apparently a 70% contributor to GDP - for example, continue to report dismal numbers while pundit headlines peddle peachy "jobs growth" and "economic recovery" illusion.

All only because Bernanke and his gang are out to save their bankers. They continue to inflict enormous pain on the working salt-of-the-earth producers with 0.1% to Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfeins while their banks charge 13 - 21% on credit cards to folks whose real income is actually declining.

We live and play in a world of morality where inconvenient facts that are un-alterable are either ignored or lied about.

GVI Forex john 17:20 GMT January 20, 2014
Chart Points -- FX Database

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database.

High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 16:59 GMT January 20, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trade, prices in prime fixed income markets are broadly higher European equities are mostly Up. U.S. share markets are closed.. The peripheral European bond prices are mostly up.

GVI Forex john 16:46 GMT January 20, 2014
Better than expected, but not very good news anyway.

As for the Chinese GDP data I am reminded of the famous phrase: "There are: lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics"

Mtl JP 16:44 GMT January 20, 2014
Better than expected, but not very good news anyway.

disposable income: that which, after (assuming you can) paying basic needs , is left to pay your wants (sometimes none).

Mtl JP 16:32 GMT January 20, 2014
Better than expected, but not very good news anyway.

in sum, China amongst others, makes me chuckle.

every idiot funny-money printing CB gang thinks they can print wealth and spur economic growth momentum to outrun the ginormous mountains of debt and concomitant interest... without default

Mtl JP 16:24 GMT January 20, 2014
Better than expected, but not very good news anyway.

re wage growth, ill-gotten gains, conspicuous consumption and "slow nominal GDP growth makes it harder for borrowers to erode their debts through the magic of time" :

Frangos in WSJ: What lies beneath China’s growth

...Beneath the surface, however, there are worry signs. Among them is that real disposable incomes for urban dwellers grew at the slowest annual rate since the millennium began and slower than the economy overall...

GVI Forex Blog 15:34 GMT January 20, 2014 Reply   
January 20, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, January 21. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: NZ- CPI, Holiday, DE- ZEW Survey

GVI Forex Data Outlook for January 21, 2014

Mtl JP 15:17 GMT January 20, 2014
Forex Trading Themes for the Week of January 19, 2014

after europe closes, there may - or not - be some weird price movements seeing it is a US holiday session

GVI Forex john 15:02 GMT January 20, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

January 20, 2014 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, January 21. Updated: Trading Events Calendar


  • Far East: NZ- CPI, Holiday .
  • Europe: DE- ZEW Survey.
  • North America: US- No Major Data.

HK [email protected] 14:17 GMT January 20, 2014

World's 85 richest have same wealth as 3.5 billion poorest.
My take is: Distribute this wealth among 3.5B poors and they will spend it in one night on alcohol, women and gambling, they will morning the night with 0$.

Better leave it with the rich, who may produce some more jobs and donate for charity to the poor so they can make more children.


GVI Forex john 14:10 GMT January 20, 2014
China GDP

EARLIER: China GDP eases +7.70% yy.

Mtl JP 13:42 GMT January 20, 2014
Forex Trading Themes for the Week of January 19, 2014

euro 100dma 1.3562
support (and s/t target) at 1.35

HK [email protected] 13:30 GMT January 20, 2014

At about 0.8270 meets a RES., maybe from here will wait for the coming data. Take or break.

GVI Forex 12:04 GMT January 20, 2014
Global Markets News
FX price action was quiet with limited data releases and US closed for holiday. The Far East session did see some volatility following mixed Chinese data. The AUD/USD hit 3 1/2 year lows below $0.8760 before rebounding. EU Market Update: Iran says it has suspended 0% of uranium enrichment under the P5+1 deal

GVI Forex john 10:57 GMT January 20, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are higher. The peripheral European bond prices are higher. Far East shares ended mostly lower. European Equity markets are mixed. U.S. markets are closed today

ed kw 09:34 GMT January 20, 2014
USD indicator?
U.S. industrial output rose by 0.3%, its fastest clip in 3-1/2 years in the fourth quarter as reported.

Natgas is pricing usd strength with target 5.5 for industrial output indicator

Syd Sf 07:44 GMT January 20, 2014
Better than expected, but not very good news anyway.

Gbpyen sold out of 3/4 what I bought earlier here at 20

Guess need to wait for 170.50/65 to start buying again.

Hong Kong AceTrader 07:11 GMT January 20, 2014
AceTrader Jan 20: Daily Market Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW
20 Jan 2014 05:38GMT

Despite usd's intra-day breach of 1065.5 to 1065.7, subsequent retreat suggests choppy trading be-
low Jan's high at 1071.0 wud continue.

Abv 1065.7 yields re-test of 1071.0 whilst below
1059.5 brings weakness to 1056.7. Stand aside.

STRATEGY : Stand aside

RES : 1065.7/1071.0/1074.2

SUP : 1059.5/1056.7/1055.6

GVI Forex Blog 05:38 GMT January 20, 2014 Reply   
- (CN) CHINA DEC NEW HOME PRICES M/M: PRICES RISE IN 65 OF 70 CITIES V 66 PRIOR; Y/Y: PRICES RISE IN 65 OF 70 CITIES V 69 PRIOR >- (CN) CHINA Q4 GDP Q/Q: 1.8% V 2.0%E; Y/Y: 7.7% V 7.6%E; 2013 GDP: 7.7 Asian Market Update: China GDP slightly higher than expected while industrial output slows as liquidity tighten - Source

GVI Forex Blog 05:06 GMT January 20, 2014 Reply   
Dow (16458.56, +0.25%) bounced back from 16375 exactly as expected and now would start

Morning Briefing : 20-Jan-2014 -0502 GMT

ed kw 04:43 GMT January 20, 2014
Forex Trading Themes for the Week of January 19, 2014

Sizeable sell flows were noted in the Kiwi particularly against the AUD as many global banks target tactical short NZD trade recommendations, noting that the last time the Aud/nzd was trading sub 1.0600 in 2005 that NZ enjoyed a cash rate 175 bps above Australia’s (currently level at 2.5%) and an unemployment rate over 1 % lower than Australia’s. (Currently NZ’s unemployment rate is 6.2% (Q3 last reading) vs. Australia’s 5.8%).

Mtl JP 03:37 GMT January 20, 2014
Better than expected, but not very good news anyway.

wheels up !
numbnuts Abe thinks he has rotation from deflation

Syd Sf 03:24 GMT January 20, 2014
Better than expected, but not very good news anyway.

On a slightly different topic .. Re china data .. They are saying this will be the highest number for the next few months .. And it will slow from here. ... Down into the 7/7.5% range.

Mtl JP 03:21 GMT January 20, 2014
Better than expected, but not very good news anyway.

well fine n dandy. in the meanwhile, COT report said bearish JPY position continues to decline vs the dollar. strengthens my case for one of two catalysts for yen to tank again.

- US yield rises to pay better than the current 2.83%
- a numbnuts Abe's proxy intervenes

Syd Sf 03:03 GMT January 20, 2014
Better than expected, but not very good news anyway.

My point was .. That apparently today the business lobby changed its stance on the issue .. They now support it.

Problem with some of these things are they are a few months away.

Syd Sf 02:24 GMT January 20, 2014
Better than expected, but not very good news anyway.

Nikkei was -120 now around the -80 level

Nintendo had an absolute disaster with that video game stuff.

Syd Sf 02:20 GMT January 20, 2014
Better than expected, but not very good news anyway.

Yes the number was just above expectations .. But a couple of the parts of it are bit worrying.

Added some gbp/aud long.

$yen they are saying business lobby now supports wage hike .. Which would help govt pay down their massive debt .. And help economy.

Anyway loaded down with positions for the week .. So see how it plays. Out.

HK [email protected] 02:14 GMT January 20, 2014
Better than expected, but not very good news anyway.

China growth drops to 14-year lowChina GDP figures show growth of 7.7% in fourth quarter of 2013, the lowest for 14 years

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:41 GMT January 20, 2014
AceTrader Jan 20 : Euro falls to fresh 7-week low

Market Review - 17/01/2014 20:18GMT

Euro falls to fresh 7-week low

The single currency tumbled to a fresh 7-week low at 1.3517 on Friday due to renewed dollar's strength after the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. industrial output, supporting the the view that U.S. economy is improving enough to keep the Federal Reserve's stimulus-reducing measures on track.

U.S. industrial output rose by 0.3%, its fastest clip in 3-1/2 years in the fourth quarter. U.S. New homes last month dropped 9.8%, the largest percentage decline since April, but housing starts were coming off a multi-year high in November. University of Michigan consumer confidence came in weaker-than-expected at 80.4 versus the economists' forecast of 83.5.

The greenback traded inside a tight range of 104.20-104.47 against the Japanese yen. However, the British pound rallied from intra-day low at 1.6309 to as high as 1.6459 after the release of unexpectedly strong U.K. retail sales data, which rose by 2.6% m/m and 5.3% y/y, better than the forecasts of 0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y respectively with previous readings revised to 0.1% n 1.8%.

In other news, BoE's Broadbent said 'signs that headwinds facing wage growth are starting to abate; good reason to expect business investment growth to accelerate; highly unlikely we'll see anything like the relative price headwinds of past 4 years, opposite more likely; productive growth, euro zone will be key to determining UK recovery path.' Broadbent added later that "UK productivity doesn't look to have been good in H2 2013, but expect a pick-up."

Fed's Lacker says " tapering should continue and that recent data far fm what would be needed to change his view; deflecting monetary policy from price stability mission would be misguided."

Data to be released next week:

U.K. Rightmove house prices , China business climate, entrepreneur confidence, GDP, industrial production, fixed assets, retail sales, Japan capacity utilization, industrial production, Germany PPI on Monday. New Zealand, U.S financial markets are closed due to public holiday.

New Zealand CPI, Germany ZEW survey current situation, survey expectations, U.K. CBI industrial trend, Canada wholesale sales, U.S. IMF economic outlook on Tuesday.

Australia Westpac consumer confidence, CPI, Japan rate decision, all industry index, leading indicators, U.K. MPC minutes, claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, Avg. earnings, PSNCR, public sector Net knowing, Italy current account, Swiss Zew index, US Redbook retail sales, Canada BOC rate decision, on Wednesday.

New Zealand business manufacturing PMI, ANZ consumer confidence, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Japan BOJ monthly economic report, France business climate, France manufacturing PMI, service PMI, EU current account, manufacturing PMI, service PMI, consumer confidence, U.K. CBI distributive trades, Canada retail sales, U.S. Chicago Fed index, jobless claims, markit PMI, house price, US existing home sales, leading index on Thursday.

U.K. BBA mortgage approvals, Canada CPI on Friday.

Mtl JP 01:39 GMT January 20, 2014
Forex Trading Themes for the Week of January 19, 2014

there is a t-line support on my daily euro
currently at 1.3489

Mtl JP 01:30 GMT January 20, 2014
Forex Trading Themes for the Week of January 19, 2014

20 day 1.3657 res
50 day 1.3623 res
100 day 1.3562 res
current price: 1.3514
200 day 1.3348 support
COT says euro bears have been adding since beginning of year.. thin market, sharks lurking.. things could happen rather rapidly
on the downside, can u think of a better way to start the year into the close of the month ?

HK [email protected] 01:25 GMT January 20, 2014
CN coming GDP

Let's place a 1$ bet on 7.3% for CN GDP, regarding most of the world economy is not so so.

HK [email protected] 01:21 GMT January 20, 2014
A harbinger for the coming CN GDP???

HK [email protected] 13:03 GMT January 17, 2014
People are tired of apple or a general slowdown?: Reply

Apple’s Latest Foray Into China Gets a Weak Response

Instead of the round-the-block lines that have greeted Apple product introductions in China and other countries in the past, only about a dozen customers showed up to buy iPhones at the opening of a store in Beijing — despite the presence of a special guest, the Apple chief executive, Timothy D. Cook.

tokyo ginko 00:14 GMT January 20, 2014

long nk 15650


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