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Forex Forum Archive for 01/23/2014

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Syd sf 22:58 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

please note my cadyen numbers are 100 points off

add 100 points to my levels.

Syd sf 22:57 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

gbpyen

170.40 / 171.10 / 171.62 / 172.14 / 172.68 / 173.32

cadyen

**90.95 / 91.42 / 92.13 / 92.48

nikkei

14950 / 15300 / 15525 / 15630

** if 90.95 is broken that is major weekly level - I'd have to look further to see next level under there not expecting anything under there at this point.

GVI Forex john 22:51 GMT January 23, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


January 23, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, January 24. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CA- CPI

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: No Major Data.
  • North America: CA- CPI, COT Report.


Syd sf 22:50 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia
Reply   
can someone tell me the interbank low in $yen ??

Hong Kong Qindex 21:51 GMT January 23, 2014
EUR/AUD : Critical Level 1.5259

EURAUD
Entry: Target: Stop:




EUR/AUD : As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is working on the barrier at 1.5648 // 1.6035.


Qindex.com


==============================================

Hong Kong Qindex 09:07 GMT January 19, 2014
EUR/AUD : Critical Level 1.5259 : Reply
EURAUD
Entry: Target: Stop:




EUR/AUD : Critical Level 1.5259


The market is stable when it is above the critical point at 1.5259. The weekly cycle pivot centres are located at 1.5168 - 1.5300 - 1.5494.


Qindex.com

EUR/AUD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Hong Kong Qindex 21:21 GMT January 23, 2014
EUR/CAD : Critical Point 1.4777

EURCAD
Entry: Target: Stop:




EUR/CAD : The weekly cycle normal upper limits are 1.5277 - 1.5293 - 1.5306.


Qindex.com


==============================================


Hong Kong Qindex 09:53 GMT January 19, 2014
EUR/CAD : Critical Point 1.4777 : Reply
EURCAD
Entry: Target: Stop:




EUR/CAD : Critical Point 1.4777


The market is positive when it is trading above the weekly cycle pivot centres at 1.4801 - 1.4825 - 1.4826. As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is trading in the extreme upper ends (1.4695* - 1.4838 ... 1.4981* - 1.5124 - 1.5267* - 1.5410 - 1.5552* ...).


Qindex.com

EUR/CAD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Hong Kong Qindex 21:14 GMT January 23, 2014
EUR/CHF : Critical Point 1.2366

EURCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:




EUR/CHF : The weekly cycle lower limits are positioning at 1.2222 - 1.2230 - 1.2241. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the barrier at 1.2253 // 1.2259.


==============================================

Hong Kong Qindex 16:11 GMT January 19, 2014
EUR/CHF : Critical Point 1.2366 : Reply
EURCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:




EUR/CHF : Critical Point 1.2366


The weekly cycle pivot centres are located at 1.2334 - 1.2337 - 1.2341. The market is under pressure when it is rejected from the critical point at 1.2366.


Qindex.com

EUR/CHF : Monthly Cycle Charts

dc CB 20:51 GMT January 23, 2014
Decades of survelliance finally leads to arrest
Reply   
View GoodFellows, the Martin Scorssee film on DVD.

the NSA/FBI/etc etc
On the Job for the past 30 years...er 35 years

will we read in 2045, about the Bust of Jamie Dimon????

We Aways Get Our Man

Arrest Made in Fabled ’78 ‘Goodfellas’ Heist

GVI Forex john 20:39 GMT January 23, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 20:29 GMT January 23, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


dc CB 20:07 GMT January 23, 2014
Rough day in markets. Eurozone flash PMI data better. Chinese flash HSBC PMI back below 50.

con't

so you knock down Stox from AllTimeHighs, add some bad press from China....oooooh did those rich guys in DAVOS think bad thoughts about the "market". Lard the press with Dollar Rally, Gold Rally, Buy Bonds aka we'll see 2.5% soon. And TAPER is ....well what is taper tapor tapest

Hey Janet .... Willkommen!!!!...do what ever you want...worst case the 10Y will "threaten" to cross above 3% again. But donnna' you worry your pretty head about that ....we can fix....we can always fix.

Hope all you'll are keepin' those pipes from freezin'

ottawa ottawa 20:00 GMT January 23, 2014
USD/JPY and SPX

move stop on rest at leisure

ottawa ottawa 19:58 GMT January 23, 2014
USD/JPY and SPX

1st exit for SPX and JPY...good luck

dc CB 19:58 GMT January 23, 2014
Rough day in markets. Eurozone flash PMI data better. Chinese flash HSBC PMI back below 50.

Tin Hats on boys, or not.

so we're only 16 trading days into the NewYear. Anyone notice the "Main Stream financial press" has been spewing out "stories" that, at another time could only be contributed to UberBear Marc Faber???

FMOC - the back field hand off that the defense fails to see and the runner goes all the way, 80 yard for the winning TD.
(yeh that's Amerikan Football.....and FYI the SuperBowl will be played this year in an OutDoor Stadium in ....Chris Christies back yard....expecting snow and subZero windchills)

No No NO there cannot be manipulation of Stox Bonds PMs etc etc etc before the FMOC Corronation of the Queen.

No that would be tooo tooo tooo huge. It's like if "THEY" tried to manipulate LIBOR.

and no the Chineese and Japan could never be involved...I mean if they Knew about something like LIBOR they'd Blow the Whistle.... right?

It's all Phone (NSA recorded) Calls tween all the CBs and their proxy TBTF market actors.

GVI Forex 19:27 GMT January 23, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
Risk aversion took hold last night. US equities, US interest rates, and the US dollar fell.

NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

GVI Forex Blog 19:25 GMT January 23, 2014
Rough day in markets. Eurozone flash PMI data better. Chinese flash HSBC PMI back below 50.
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CA- CPI

Out of the gate, markets in the U.S. were in trouble Thursday, as equity prices fell sharply. Falling stocks pushed bond prices higher (lower yields). Gold also rose on a flight to safety. There are questions hanging over the Chinese banking system and also some fresh worries about Argentina and its currency. If this were truly a flight to safety market, we would have expected to see the USD performing better than it has..

Rough day in markets. Eurozone flash PMI data better. Chinese flash HSBC PMI back below 50.

ottawa ottawa 19:17 GMT January 23, 2014
USD/JPY and SPX

all in...SPX final bought 1815.75...Target 1822, 1828 and 1832..good luck all.

dc CB 19:07 GMT January 23, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Ya think "they" will let gold rally into the FMOC?
Hasn't happened in years.
Early one morning: "take 'em to the cleaners boys!"
"YASSSSSS SIR!"
____________________________________________

by the way BofAm does it's TBTF bit by teasing the GoldBugs
_______________________________________________

Bank Of America: "Gold Squeeze Gets Explosive Above 1270"

Livingston nh 19:04 GMT January 23, 2014
PPT

Ben will likely step down on Tuesday morning at beginning of FOMC - stox are trying to "price in" taper - each of last two attempts end of summer early fall pushed the Dow down ~900 points -- there may be a few more days of this correction as Yellen takes command

ottawa ottawa 19:01 GMT January 23, 2014
USD/JPY and SPX

second chunk should be filled around 103.00 soon and final moved to 102.80, spx first enter now 1815+

ottawa ottawa 18:52 GMT January 23, 2014
USD/JPY and SPX

first chunk filled at 103.10

GVI Forex john 18:43 GMT January 23, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Gold up $26 looks like a flight to safety day.

ottawa ottawa 18:30 GMT January 23, 2014
USD/JPY and SPX
Reply   
I have buy orders for both jpy and spx when target reaches around 103.05-102.9 and subsequently enter spx then.

stop with 40 pips.

GVI Forex john 18:25 GMT January 23, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

10-yr 2.78% -8bp

Hong Kong Qindex 18:14 GMT January 23, 2014
USD/CAD : Critical Point 1.1006

USDCAD
Entry: Target: Stop:




USD/CAD : The weekly cycle normal upper limits are positioning at 1.1217 - 1.1249 - 1.1258. Buy on dips is still the preferred trading strategy.


Qindex.com


USD/CAD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Mtl JP 18:06 GMT January 23, 2014
PPT

“We hope that as the economy improves, and as we tell our story . . . people will appreciate and understand what we did was necessary and in the interest of the broader public,” Bernanke said. “It was a Main Street set of actions aimed at helping the average American.” - washingtonpost, jan 16 ...

still lying, even as he is riding off into the garbage heap of history

tokyo ginko 17:49 GMT January 23, 2014
sell usd

FYI, USD gain against commodity currency, AUD, NZD, CAD

Mtl JP 17:49 GMT January 23, 2014
PPT

PAT - Bernanke explains....

Mtl JP 17:39 GMT January 23, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

As long as progress is being made, there is no need for the Bank of Japan to expand its quantitative easing programme, under which it buys government debt and risk assets, Deputy Managing Director Naoyuki Shinohara said at a seminar in Tokyo.

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has expressed growing confidence that consumer prices will reach the goal in two years, although comments from the IMF highlight the considerable scepticism among private sector economists.

"As long as steady progress is being made toward the 2 percent inflation target, we do not see a need for additional monetary accommodation," Shinohara said, according to the text of a speech. - reuters Jan 23, 2014

Mtl JP 17:30 GMT January 23, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

so maybe yen's strength is a run away from stocks as players pull back from the "global economic uncertainty" ?

bali sja 17:11 GMT January 23, 2014
sell usd
Reply   
i had been giving out warnings about usd facing head wind, good luck good trades :)) no change

Syd sf 17:07 GMT January 23, 2014
cadyen
Reply   
quite a support level 15 points below current level (shorter term)

then much longer term support @91.95

plan some sort of strategy after some sleep :)

GVI Forex john 17:00 GMT January 23, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

#TradeIdeas I heard Bob Pisani on CNBC earlier today explain the close correlation between #USDJPY and equities as being driven by hedge funds. Obviously for big players to buy stocks they need to borrow money from somewhere to finance the trade. He said that they finance the purchases in JPY and that when the JPY strengthens they sell their stocks and pay back the JPY.

I think his view is pretty simplistic because there is not much of a differential, if any between the cost of USD and JPY funds. Furthermore they could get out instantaneously of the JPY borrowing by just hedging the JPY loan, I think he might consider rethinking his analysis.

I think his analysis is mired in the way markets worked before.
I don't doubt that the markets are still operating on a notion of how HF MIGHT be working even though in actuality it has been outmoded for several years. You lock these correlations into an algo and they don't go away!

Bottom-line equities can influence USDJPY and vice-versa. So if equities start to move keep an eye on the JPY when equities start to move no matter the reason.

PAR 16:46 GMT January 23, 2014
PPT
Reply   
Bernanke now explaining to Yellen how and when to activate PPT . Lets see whether she understands . Lol.

GVI Forex john 16:42 GMT January 23, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trade, prices in prime fixed income markets are boadly higher. Falling equities have given bond prices. Equity indices are down. The peripheral European bond prices are lower.


GVI Forex 16:35 GMT January 23, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
US stock markets opened under pressure while bond markets rallied as risk off sentiment prevailed. The US 10-year Treasury yield declined to lowest level in 6 weeks while US indices lost 1% or more

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Risk sentiment hits an air pocket largely on China worries

GVI Forex john 16:27 GMT January 23, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


January 23, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, January 24. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CA- CPI

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: No Major Data.
  • North America: CA- CPI, COT Report.


GVI Forex john 16:01 GMT January 23, 2014
Weekly EIA Crude Inventories
Reply   
US EIA


ALERT
Crude Oil: +0.990 vs. +1.000 exp vs. -7.700 prev.
Gasoline: +2.120 vs. -1.500 exp vs. +6.200 prev.
Distillates:-3.200 vs.-1.000 exp vs. -1.020 prev.
Cap/Util: 86.5% vs. 89.7% exp vs. 92.3% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

border="1" height="30">

tokyo ginko 15:59 GMT January 23, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

signal bias towards a 180degrees turn

Saar KaL 15:58 GMT January 23, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

DJI
Seems Like a buy
16,506.7472 16,181.4991
Not buying though

will Buy NDX though
3,650.0478 3,578.1274

ottawa ottawa 15:49 GMT January 23, 2014
Selling Eur/USD
Reply   
Selling Eur/USD and GBP/USD for a 50 pip move...target in the mid 40's

Saar KaL 15:48 GMT January 23, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

cable
Sell range
1.6654 1.6326

Saar KaL 15:44 GMT January 23, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

1.3685 eurusd
should be it
IMO
TGT 1.3412

GVI Forex john 15:43 GMT January 23, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

#tradeIdeas we heard earlier on GVI Forex that European pension funds have been reallocating assets out of stocks into bonds today. We are not sure why but will be watching how these markets behave after the European closes shortly.

Syd Sf 15:39 GMT January 23, 2014
Redemption
Reply   
Just was listening to a story then .. That one fund got an 11 bio redemption today.

GVI Forex john 15:30 GMT January 23, 2014
Weekly Natural Gas Inventories Change
Reply   



ALERT
WEEKLY- US Natural Gas (bcf)
-107 vs. -110 exp vs. -287 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

PAR 15:20 GMT January 23, 2014
EURO

Weak US data hitting Us stocks and Us dollar . Bad end for Bernanke with a $ 5 trillion FED balance sheet and a Us economy turned into a Soviet style plan economy .

As the Soviet Union proved central planning doesn t work .

nw kw 15:18 GMT January 23, 2014
Debt ever more Debt / trillions & trillions

Keystone will be for new president not mr green

GVI Forex john 15:11 GMT January 23, 2014
U.S. Existing Homes Sales



Existing Homes Sales is by far the most significant housing statistic. Not a pretty picture.

HK [email protected] 15:10 GMT January 23, 2014
EURO
Reply   


May Ret. from here B4 continuation to 1.3700

GVI Forex john 15:08 GMT January 23, 2014
U.S. Existing Homes Sales

Existing Homes Sales is the most important housing number and it was lousy. It was only up because the previous month's data (November) was revised lower. We tend to watch the actual monthly number and ignore the percentage changes because of the typical substantial revisions to previous data.

PAR 15:06 GMT January 23, 2014
Debt ever more Debt / trillions & trillions
Reply   
Congress has until late February to lift the $16.7T debt ceiling and avert a U.S. default, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said yesterday. The cap is suspended until February 7, after which the Treasury can juggle the money about for a bit before running out of cash. The question is how much the GOP will try to use the debt limit to extract concessions from the Democrats, such as with a decision on the Keystone XL pipeline.

GVI Forex john 15:01 GMT January 23, 2014
U.S. Leading Indicators
Reply   



ALERT
U.S. Leading Indicators
+0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 15:01 GMT January 23, 2014
U.S. Existing Homes Sales
Reply   



ALERT
OCTOBER 2013
U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln)
4.87vs. 4.950 exp. vs. 4.900 (r 4.820)prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources


GVI Forex john 15:00 GMT January 23, 2014
Eurozone Consumer Confidence
Reply   




ALERT
Consumer Confidence flash
-11.7 vs. -13.6 vs. -13.6 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 14:51 GMT January 23, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

UK 10-yr 2.82 -7bp
DE 10-yr 1.71% -5bp

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:48 GMT January 23, 2014
Eurusd

st, hard to suggest a range from here after such a big move as it depends on whether there are more stops to run but as I noted in my daily video, key level on top is 1.3700 = last week's high and 50% retracement level

So far top has been at the 200 period 4 hour mva (as noted on GVIForex in real-time)

On downside, support is 1.3625-50 with 1.3650 setting the tone for this pair.

Maybe a range of 1.3630-70 but noting risk of stops closer to up than downside?

By the way, we had a Monday Effect week. if you want details on this pattern, send me an EMAIL

Saar KaL 14:46 GMT January 23, 2014
Eurusd

Short EURUSD
TGT 1.3420

Syd Sf 14:43 GMT January 23, 2014
Eurusd
Reply   
Can anyone provide a range estimate from here ?

Just on the tv .. The sec suspended 4 main Chinese companies for 6 months because they wouldn't provide audited accounts .. Based on mainland china telling them not too.

Saar KaL 14:42 GMT January 23, 2014
GBP/USD

Kevin
I see that too 1.77 tops

The usdjpy
seems a crash is happening for 60 (Generally)

Does not like 105 level

Livingston nh 14:40 GMT January 23, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Seems FI is trying to test the 2.80 range bottom - safe haven bond buyers following the Stox decline - funny is stox selling on Taper but bond guys don't see the risk // SPX has big gap to fill down in 1815 -1820 area

GVI Forex john 14:34 GMT January 23, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

U.S.. 10yr last 2.82% -4bp

Syd Sf 14:25 GMT January 23, 2014
N225 + $yen

We can revise the numbers now

102.90 // 103.49 // 104.17 // 104.85

15330 / 15525 / 15630

HK Kevin 14:17 GMT January 23, 2014
GBP/USD
Reply   
This pair may go to 1.75-1.80 following the trendline breakout in the monthly chart, provided that 1.63 hold. In the medium turn, a correction back to 1.64-1.6450 is likely to happen as witneesed in the MACD divergance in the daily chart.

dc CB 14:17 GMT January 23, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

Five years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. forced governments to bail out financial firms and prompted a global recession, bankers are still grappling to convince the public they can avoid a similar crisis. In a vote at the end of the debate, almost 40 percent of the 100-strong Davos audience said markets haven’t been made safer. Banks and financial services are the least trusted of all industries, according to a survey by public relations firm Edelman released on Jan. 20.

Last year, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon defended banks from blame for the crisis, and argued regulators were “trying to do too much, too fast.”

This year, returning to Davos as head of a bank that agreed to pay more than $23 billion in 12 months in fines and settlements, Dimon has no public appearances. Instead, he listened to yesterday’s debate standing at the back of the room.

Davos Bankers Struggle to Convince Elite That Markets Are Safer

Saar KaL 14:11 GMT January 23, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

Next president of the USA
will Get the following;
1) More Jobless then now
2) Housing will hit another bottom (^Hgx hits 50 again)
3) 2008 NDX Levels (Correction)

Not good
US Citizens will be not happy with whom ever he will be


dc CB 14:10 GMT January 23, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

ZH:

nitial claims rose very marginally week over week (with the declining trend of early 2013 now over); continung claims rose more - considerably more than expectations - with its biggest 7-week rise since early 2009 to the highest in 6 months; but the major news is the drop in Emergency Unemployment Compensation beneficiaries from 1.37 million to (drum roll please) zero!

Congress decision not to extend this beenfit means there are 2 million fewer people on benefits than a year ago. The 1.4 million drop also means the number of people NOT in the labor force is about to rise by the same amount, which as we explained before, means the US unemployment rate is about to drop by up to 0.8%, which means the January unemployment rate could be as low as 5.9%.

1.4 Million Jobless Officially Get The Emergency Claims Axe

London Misha 14:06 GMT January 23, 2014
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Still holds over Lower Tine of recent SP on Daily Chart. Today moves over Medium MA & 50% Fib with a possible Key Reversal Up!
USDJPY - Tests overhead Downtrend of possible Descending (broken) Triangle Top on Daily Chart after a Double Top.
GBPUSD - 3rd White Soldier & new rolling 12 month high on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - Indecisive Spinning Top follows Doji follows Spinning Top but today a possible Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart.
EURGBP - Long Black Marubozo & first close back below Reverse H+S Neckline but also possible Pipe Bottom on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Bullish Engulfing pattern after indecisive Doji & Bullish Piercing Pattern on Daily Chart.
USDINR - Market continues in a Sideways Coil/Triangle Pattern on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - Indecisive Doji on Daily Chart but market makes new high today!
USDBRL - 2nd White Soldier on Daily Chart.


GVI Forex john 14:04 GMT January 23, 2014
U.S. flash Markit PMI



U.S. final Markit Manufacturing PMI. Weaker than forecast..

GVI Forex john 13:58 GMT January 23, 2014
U.S. flash Markit PMI
Reply   



ALERT
U.S. Markit flash Manufacturing PMI
53.7 vs. 55.0 exp. vs. 54.4 previous


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Saar KaL 13:52 GMT January 23, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

Seems wants 2009 Levels again in the next 4 years

nw kw 13:51 GMT January 23, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

question is where is cash from cad fx going to?/

GVI Forex john 13:46 GMT January 23, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Reply   
U.S. Weekly jobless claims stabilizing?




Click on chart for ten-year history

GVI Forex john 13:44 GMT January 23, 2014
Canada Retail Sales
Reply   


Canada: Retail Sales better than expected. USDCAD weakens.

Saar KaL 13:41 GMT January 23, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

AUDUSD
Might correct into next week
0.90 area

nw kw 13:40 GMT January 23, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

cad-it started in eurcad when eur free trade deal with cad and eur free trade deal with us is pending some time now/ca gov did nothing and cant cut for housing to hot and its part of us oil spread to ca oil and Nat gas drilling rig fleet is back to work for us manufacturing demand //but ca exports will pick up faster so in spring ca strength//power of us oil ,its in the cot to,

GVI Forex john 13:33 GMT January 23, 2014
Canada Retail Sales
Reply   




ALERT
November 2013 Canada: Retail Sales
Headline +0.60%: % vs. +0.20% exp. vs. -0.10% prev.
X-Autos :+0.40% % vs. n/a exp. vs. +0.40% (r 0.50%)prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 13:30 GMT January 23, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Reply   



-- ALERT --
U.S. Weekly Jobless
Initial Claims (000)
326K vs. 330K exp. vs. 326K (r 325 K) prev.
Continued Claims (mln)
3.056 vs. 2.930 exp. vs. 2.03 (r 3.022) prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Syd Sf 13:13 GMT January 23, 2014
N225 + $yen

I don't really want to say tbh .. Simply because it gives me an edge in These stock CFD's .. The more I talk about it the faster they will figure it out.

GVI Forex john 13:06 GMT January 23, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

#USDCAD One of the strongest trends on the board is the higher USDCAD pattern. Late Wednesday BOC Governor Poloz said the "door is slightly more open to a rate cut". From the head of a central bank, this is tantamount to announcing a rate cut. It sounds to use like the BOC may be trying to engineer a weaker currency. The markets are certainly taking their recent pronouncements tat way.

The BOC is one of the few central banks that controls forex policy and forex policy tends to be intertwined with interest rate policy. One alternative to lower interest rates when they are already exceptionally low is to drive your currency lower.

GVI Forex john 12:54 GMT January 23, 2014
U.S. Weekly Jobless CA- Retail Sales
Reply   

HEADS-UP: Data (forum top)
EURUSD= 1.3634
GBPUSD= 1.6601
USDJPY= 104.03
USDCAD= 1.1137

US 10-yr= 2.84%
DE 10-yr= 1.74%
UK 10-yr= 2.87%
CA 10-yr= 2.47%
(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)

Direct links to primary data sources

NY JM 12:23 GMT January 23, 2014
N225 + $yen

sf, what MA are you referring to?

Syd sf 12:13 GMT January 23, 2014
N225 + $yen

15630 is the level I see .. its around 15655 now ... I think I mentioned before in $yen its @ 104.17.

Syd sf 12:08 GMT January 23, 2014
N225 + $yen
Reply   
Looking at these charts the MA the Japanese use is about to cross .. and looking at N225 shows risk of -300 point drop.

in $yen basically a couple days close below 114.17 is showing a tired market / correction... its against my view but I suppose its better buying levels at some point.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:01 GMT January 23, 2014
Jay Meisler Trading Tips
Reply   
I have put on paper some of my trading tips, which continue to get updated on this dynamic page. This is part of my common sense approach and suggest giving it a read as many of them fit this current market well.

Jay Meisler's Trading Tips

GVI Forex 11:20 GMT January 23, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Risk appetite was initially sidetracked after China flash HSBC-Markit PMI Manufacturing contracted for the first time in six months. However, better PMI readings from the major European member States helped to offset concerns over global growth.

Major European PMI data comes in better than expected and aids risk appetite

GVI Forex Blog 11:20 GMT January 23, 2014 Reply   
Risk appetite was initially sidetracked after China flash HSBC-Markit PMI Manufacturing contracted for the first time in six months. However, better PMI readings from the major European member States helped to offset concerns over global growth.

Major European PMI data comes in better than expected and aids risk appetite

GVI Forex john 10:39 GMT January 23, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
Reply   
#TradeIdeas good point re stop hunts in #EURUSD. Stops are the strongest force in the markets because they have to be executed no matter what.

Note today we have already run through the #EURUSD 20-day average of 1.3632. One trigger today has been the EZ flash PMI releases. I have become a little bit wary of their predictive abilities. I view them now something to confirm what we already know. I also think in some cases that they tend to have a positive rather than neutral bias.

PAR 09:56 GMT January 23, 2014
eurusd

Euro stop hunting in full swing . Brokers , hedge funds and banks going after all possible eur buy stops .
Can get funny .

GVI Forex Blog 09:52 GMT January 23, 2014
Eurozone flash PMI data better. Chinese flash HSBC PMI back below 50.
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- Weekly Jobs, Markit PMIs, Existing Homes Sales, Leading Indicators, CA- Retail Sales

Flash PMI's from the Eurozone were generally better although France still remains at contractionary levels. Recently we have started to become less certain about the predictive value of this survey. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.

Eurozone flash PMI data better. Chinese flash HSBC PMI back below 50.

GVI Forex john 09:38 GMT January 23, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply   
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are broadly higher despite generally better flash PMI data. The peripheral European bond prices are loeer. Far East shares ended lower. European Equity markets are soft.

Saar KaL 09:38 GMT January 23, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

USDCHF Longs is a very good idea

GVI Forex john 09:27 GMT January 23, 2014
Eurozone Flash PMIs



EZ, GE and FR flash Mfg PMIs rising, but France weak.

Saar KaL 09:25 GMT January 23, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

Cable
1.66ish
is a drop for 1.50
it is starting

GVI Forex john 09:25 GMT January 23, 2014
China flash HSBC PMI
Reply   


HSBC flash PMI unexpectedly falls.

GVI Forex john 09:23 GMT January 23, 2014
Eurozone Flash PMIs



EZ, German and French flash Services PMIs mixed but turning up.

Tallinn viies 09:19 GMT January 23, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
sold euro at 1,3635. stop at 1,3685.
take profit at 1,3580

GVI Forex john 09:17 GMT January 23, 2014
Eurozone Flash PMIs



EZ Services PMI better than expected.


PAR 09:11 GMT January 23, 2014
EUR
Reply   
What cannot go down must go up . Looks like German economy is overheating , in real economy no signs of deflation . Could IMF be wrong again ?

GVI Forex john 09:10 GMT January 23, 2014
Eurozone Flash PMIs



EZ Mfg PMI better than forecast.


GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT January 23, 2014
Eurozone Flash PMIs

EZ flash PMIs beat across the board but many still at depressed levels.

GVI Forex john 08:59 GMT January 23, 2014
Eurozone Flash PMIs
Reply   




ALERT
January 2014 EZ Flash PMI Estimates
mfg: 53.9 vs. 53.0 exp. vs. 52.7 prev.
svc: 51.9 vs. 51.4 exp. vs. 51.0 prev.

France
mfg: 48.8 vs. 47.5 exp. vs. 47.0
svc: 48.6 vs. 48.0 exp. vs. 47.8

Germany
mfg: 56.3 vs. 54.6 exp. vs. 54.3
svc: 53.6 vs. 54.0 exp. vs. 53.5




TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:55 GMT January 23, 2014
China flash HSBC PMI
Reply   





EARLIER:
January 2014 China flash HSBC PMI
HSBC: 49.6 vs. 50.5 exp. vs. 50.5 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Syd sf 08:51 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

lol leaked yeah - lucky i got out early or that would have gotten expensive .. bit irritated didnt buy back my gbpyen - but anyway that's trading .. see what happens bit later.

nw kw 08:36 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

Asian stocks moved lower on Thursday following signs of weakness in China's manufacturing sector.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Composite were down 1.2% and 0.3% respectively after the preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for January came out at 49.6, compared with a final reading of 50.5 in December. A score above 50 indicates an increase in manufacturing, while a score below points toward contraction.

The impact was felt as far away as Australia--a country with strong trade ties with China--where the local currency pushed lower after the weak PMI reading. The Australian dollar fell to US$0.8802, compared with A$0.8852 late Wednesday in New York.

There have already been signs of an economic slowdown in China, the latest being from earlier this week when China reported that gross domestic product

Brisbane Flip 08:31 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

More about leaked German numbers mate...
That's Europe

nw kw 08:25 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

Asian bad so I see gbpaud,cad euraud so on poss 130pis left

Syd Sf 08:19 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

That will be my last eurusd trade this year .. I'm pretty bad with that one... Who thought France would have better numbers lol.

Hong Kong AceTrader 07:40 GMT January 23, 2014
AceTrader Jan 23: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/SGD
Reply   
DAILY USD/SGD OUTLOOK - 1.2823
23 Jan 2014 06:57GMT

Usd's breach of y'day's 1.2803 high confirms MT
upmove has resumed n further gain to 1.2850/55 wud
be seen but res 1.2862 shud remain intact.

Buy again on dips with stop as indicated, below
wud signal temp. top has made n risk 1.2751.


STRATEGY : Buy at 1.2795

OBJECTIVE : 1.2755

STOP-LOSS : 1.2770

RES : 1.2839/1.2862/1.2900

SUP : 1.2771/1.2751/1.2709

nw kw 07:23 GMT January 23, 2014
Forex News

•USDJPY 103.90 (USD 800 mln) 104.00 (USD 2 bln) 104.30 (USD 500 mln) 104.40 (USD 500 mln) 105.00 (USD 2 bln) 105.25 105.45
•EURUSD 1.3410 1.3450 1.3475 1.3500 1.3565 1.3575 1.3685
•GBPUSD 1.6500 1.6630
•AUDUSD 0.8900 0.8950 (AUD 500 mln)
•USDCAD 1.0950 1.0960
•EURGBP 0.8150

10.am ny op exp

jkt abel 05:40 GMT January 23, 2014
buy cable
Reply   
bali sja, still buying cable today as well?

Mtl JP 05:35 GMT January 23, 2014
Forex News

BoC's Poloz is on a currency warpath

Syd Sf 03:51 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

I pretty much s..k at eurusd .. But I'm starting to get short looking for 1.3460/1.3570 range today ... $yen may go to 20/25 but that's prob it .. So feel like eurusd has more movement in it.

Syd Sf 03:33 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

Toyota agrees to 1% pay rise for its workers.... Official announcement 1 st week in February.

Syd Sf 03:29 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

Most stock markets are a lot lower now

CFD

USA -83 nikkei -40 china -75 Aust -66

GVI Forex Blog 03:27 GMT January 23, 2014 Reply   
Dow (16373.34, -0.25%) consolidation may be over by today or tomorrow and the next

Morning Briefing : 23-Jan-2014 -0326 GMT

Syd Sf 03:05 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

For me .. Liquidating 100% gbpyen at 33 and looking to start buying again 172.50/70

Hong Kong AceTrader 03:02 GMT January 23, 2014
AceTrader Jan 23: Daily Market Outlook on Major EUR/USD
Reply   
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK EUR/USD - 1.3535
23 Jan 2014 00:41 GMT

Despite yesterday's rebound to 1.3584, subsequent retreat suggests the recovery from Monday's 7-week low at 1.3508 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of aforesaid trough, break would extend corrective decline from December's 2-year peak at 1.3894 towards support at 1.3455/60, however, near term loss of momentum would prevent steep fall below there and yield a correction later next week.

On the upside, only above 1.3584 would indicate a temporary low has been made there and bring stronger retracement of said fall to 1.3603.

Syd Sf 02:30 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

Just a read on the stock CFD at the moment after the china data

USA -34 Nikkei +30 (down from +115). China -70 Aust -30

Syd Sf 02:26 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

Nikkei down to 15870 after resisting at 15950 area

Depends on how the nikkei trades in The afternoon tbh.

We could see some liquidation trades if it doesn't regain 15900

KL KL 02:15 GMT January 23, 2014
Long audusd

out now....8803...right where i started...to some break even...to Ninja relentless chasing till .8791...its Ninja Art.....ave .8795....wait now near .8793 to start long Aussie engine....

KL KL 01:56 GMT January 23, 2014
Long audusd
Reply   
Long now .8803...keep adding as long as my finger can click...LOL...busy busy!!

GVI Forex 01:46 GMT January 23, 2014
China
Reply   
CHINA HSBC FLASH JAN PMI 49.6 VS DEC FINAL 50.5

KL KL 01:45 GMT January 23, 2014
Short USDCAD..
Reply   
he he...quietly appear this side and short usdcad relentless 1.1127......by big chunks too.....will be holding till parity with USD.....LOL.... Go Li Na!! Jia Yu!!

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:40 GMT January 23, 2014
AceTrader Jan 23 : Dollar trades mixed versus other major currencies on Wednesday
Reply   
Market Review - 22/01/2014 21:38GMT

Dollar trades mixed versus other major currencies on Wednesday

The greenback traded mixed against other major rivals on Wednesday as market participants were waiting for more signals whether that Federal Reserve's will reduce its quantitative easing program at the conclusion of its upcoming policy meeting on January 29 to USD65 billion from the current USD75 billion.

During the day, the single currency rose to 1.3580 in Asia and then dropped to 1.3535 in European morning due mainly to active cross-selling of euro versus sterling, however, cable's intra-day rally lent support to the single currency and price later rose further to 1.3584 in New York morning before easing.

Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar dropped briefly to 103.97 after the Bank of Japan kept monetary policy unchanged following its monthly policy meeting on Wednesday and maintained its assessment that Japan's economy 'has continued to recover moderately', renewed demand for greenback lifted price sharply higher to 104.57 ahead of European morning and later rose to 104.59 near New York close.

Bank of Japan report stated that 'keeps monetary policy steady by unanimous vote, pledges to increase monetary base as annual pace of 60-70 trillion yen; Japan core CPI expected 1.3% in FY2014/15 vs. 1.3% projected in Oct, excluding effect of sales tax hike in April 2014; Japan core CPI expected 1.9% in FY2015/16 vs. 1.9% projected in Oct, excluding effect of sales tax hike; BOJ board turns by 8-1 vote a proposal by Kiuchi to make 2 % inflation target a medium- to long-term goal; Japan GDP expected +1.4% in FY2014/15 vs. 1.5% projected in Oct; Japan GDP expected +1.5% FY2015.16 vs. 1.5% projected in Oct; Japan's economy recovering moderately with front-loaded increase in demand prior to sale tax hike being observed; Japan annual CPI growth likely to move around 1 to 1.5% for time being.'

The British pound rallied against the dollar on Wednesday after data showed that the rate of unemployment in the U.K. fell to 7.1% in November. During the day, although cable retreated after marginal gain above Tuesday's high of 1.6387 to 1.6492 in Asia, price found support at 1.6451 in European morning and surged sharply to 1.6553 due to a 'surprise' sharp drop in U.K. unemployment and BoE MPC vote outcome . Later, cable rose further to 1.6588 in New York morning before easing.

BoE showed MPC voted 9-0 to keep QE bond purchase total at 375 billion pounds and voted 9-0 to keep rates at 0.5%. BoE said in the statement that 'It was now likely that the unemployment rate would reach the 7% threshold materially earlier than previously expected," the minutes said, but officials "saw no immediate need to raise Bank Rate," the bank’s benchmark interest rate, "even if the 7% unemployment threshold were to be reached in the near future.'

On the data front, the ONS said the number of people claiming jobless benefits in U.K. fell by 24,000 in December, compared to expectations for a decline of 32,000.

In the other news, Bank of Canada left interest rates on hold at 1.00% and said 'downside risks to inflation have grown in importance; direction of next rate move to depend on data; sees inflation path lower than previous expected but still returning to the 2% target in about two years; stronger U.S. demand, recent C$ fall should help exports, business investment; no sign yet of rebalancing to export - and investment-led growth; fundamental drivers of growth and future inflation appear to be strengthening; output cap has shrunk by 1/4 point from Oct report to between 3/4% and 1-3/4%; sees soft landing in housing market; household debt/disposable income ratio to stabilize; risks from elevated household imbalances haven't materially changed; sees 2.5% growth in 2014 (prev. 2.3%) and in 2015 (prev. 2.6%); Q4 2013 and Q1 2014 2.5% (prev. 2.3%); core and total inflation to remain around 1% in H1 2014; total CPI at 0.9% Q4 2013 and Q1 2014 (prev. 1.3% and 1.2%); despite C$ depreciation, C$ remains strong and will continue to pose competitiveness challenges for non-commodity exports; C$ depreciation reflects improved U.S. growth prospects and reduced safe-haven effects; C$ depreciation will exert upward pressure on inflation.'

Data to be released on Thursday:

New Zealand business manufacturing PMI, ANZ consumer confidence, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Japan BOJ monthly economic report, France business climate, France manufacturing PMI, service PMI, EU current account, manufacturing PMI, service PMI, consumer confidence, U.K. CBI distributive trades, Canada retail sales, U.S. Chicago Fed index, jobless claims, markit PMI, house price, US existing home sales and leading index.

Syd Sf 00:48 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

I know it's bid .. But in the morning session I'd imagine the sellers .. Profit takers can slow it down .. But in the afternoon all bets are off.

I'm hoping for 174.65 gbpyen in London.

GVI Forex 00:41 GMT January 23, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Canadian dollar slides as dovish BOC calls for lower currency

* Pound jumps as falling unemployment brings rate hike closer

* Eyes on China's manufacturing sector report


FOREX NEWS - Canadian dollar hits the skids while sterling surges

Syd Sf 00:34 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

Yeah it's right there now.

The range seems to be

$yen. 40 / 80 / 20. ... With this 15930/50 nikkei representing 104.80

tokyo ginko 00:29 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

is going

Syd Sf 00:06 GMT January 23, 2014
Asia

People are latching onto Abe's comment that Japan is about to take off

And there are some very busy buyers of japan machinery companies today .. Which have been talked about over the last couple of days.

This 15930/50 area is the one too watch .. That has been a profit taking area a few times ... It's 15890 at Momo.

 




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