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Forex Forum Archive for 01/27/2014

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Syd sf 22:51 GMT January 27, 2014
Buffer Zone

so range wise from current spot until FOMC Result

102.32/103.32 -- if breaks that 102.10 can't stay long any more.

Syd sf 22:45 GMT January 27, 2014
Buffer Zone
Reply   
seems like we have seen in the past - despite all the possible negative news .. $yen stays bid until the news is released

I don't discount a movement to 103.05 103.32 102.10 level its a buy above there .. below there the upside is over.

GVI Forex 21:33 GMT January 27, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
Global equity markets continued to slide, fx and rates markets relatively stable. Apart from ongoing concerns around emerging markets, there was a disappointing US home sales report to point to. Partly offsetting

NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

dc CB 21:11 GMT January 27, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

FOMC starts tom

Gold and Silver should be in for a whacking, just because they always wack it for the meeting.

GVI Forex john 20:44 GMT January 27, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 20:08 GMT January 27, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


GVI Forex Blog 19:57 GMT January 27, 2014
Weak U.S. New Homes Sales. German IFO better than seen. Busy Tuesday ahead
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: GB- GDP, US- Durable Goods, Case Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence The U.S. released another weak housing number on Monday, New homes sales were unexpectedly soft but were blamed on the severe winter weather in much of the U.S. this year. Markets now have a catchall excuse for any disappointing economic data.

Weak U.S. New Homes Sales. German IFO better than seen. Busy Tuesday ahead

GVI Forex Blog 19:52 GMT January 27, 2014 Reply   
January 27, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, January 28. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: GB- GDP, US- Durable Goods, Case Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence

GVI Forex Data Outlook for January 28, 2014

GVI Forex john 19:49 GMT January 27, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


January 27, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, January 28. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: GB- GDP, US- Durable Goods, Case Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence

  • Far East: No major data
  • Europe: GB- GDP
  • North America: US- Durable Goods, Case Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed, 2-yr Auction, API Energy.


Lahore FM 19:35 GMT January 27, 2014
" Trade Ideas "

Sell Crude
Entry: 95.67 Target: 82 Stop:

sold march crude at 95.67.looking for something around 82 for target.will scale in and out along the way.choose your own stop loss.

Mtl JP 17:51 GMT January 27, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

crude trying to test 95.00
see if Gold goes along

Mtl JP 17:50 GMT January 27, 2014
New Homes Sales

nh 15:49 what a potentially great idea ! the 2.7x% yield is one pathetic return. even better would be a taper down to 50bn/month ... cant hurry enough a good thing

Mtl JP 17:24 GMT January 27, 2014
French Unemployment

what ... Hollande's Responsibility Pact not giving the advertised result ?

PAR 17:09 GMT January 27, 2014
French Unemployment
Reply   
French unemployment keeps risng in December despite Hollandes promises.

GVI Forex john 16:55 GMT January 27, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trade, prices in prime fixed income markets are still mostly lower. Equity indices are broadly weak. The peripheral European bond prices are improving.


Livingston nh 16:55 GMT January 27, 2014
New Homes Sales

John - no easy way out of the swamp for these guys -- they jumped in with both feet and now they walk in mud

nw kw 16:20 GMT January 27, 2014
New Homes Sales

open interest up bank in u/j for xaujpy pulling down

GVI Forex john 16:13 GMT January 27, 2014
New Homes Sales

nh- interesting idea. If I were voting on the decision, I might then be worried about a catch up on the back end in MBS?

nw kw 15:53 GMT January 27, 2014
New Homes Sales

ge its all most world is rigged to keep fed in

Livingston nh 15:49 GMT January 27, 2014
New Homes Sales

All the recent housing data has been soft so FOMC may not taper MBS by 5 bio - rather put the whole 10 bio cutback on treasurys

Amman wfakhoury 15:48 GMT January 27, 2014
EURJPY 140.20

EURJPY @ 140.20 again from low 139.92

Mtl JP 15:47 GMT January 27, 2014
Cyprused

Bundesbank calls for capital levy to avert government bankruptcies

(Reuters) Mon Jan 27, 201- Germany's Bundesbank said on Monday that countries about to go bankrupt should draw on the private wealth of their citizens through a one-off capital levy before asking other states for help. .../..
-
Bottom Line
Appear to own nothing but control everything - Cornelius Vanderbilt

Amman wfakhoury 15:21 GMT January 27, 2014
EURJPY 140.20
Reply   
any decline will return to 140.20

Mtl JP 15:16 GMT January 27, 2014
New Homes Sales

john 15:08 why the reluctance - what are you missing ?

GVI Forex john 15:08 GMT January 27, 2014
New Homes Sales

These data reinforce the weakness we've seen in other housing statistics elsewhere. I am reluctant to extrapolate this weakness onto the rest of the economy.

GVI Forex john 15:06 GMT January 27, 2014
New Homes Sales



New Homes Sales, Much weaker than expected. Recent data volatile.


Hong Kong Qindex 15:01 GMT January 27, 2014
GBP/USD : Critical Level 1.6577
Reply   
GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:




GBP/USD : The bias is on the upside when the market is trading above the critical barrier at 1.6568 // 1.6577. The odds are good that GBP/USD will tackle the barrier at 1.6619 // 1.6654.


Qindex.com

GBP/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

GVI Forex john 15:01 GMT January 27, 2014
New Homes Sales

Much weaker than expected.

GVI Forex john 15:00 GMT January 27, 2014
New Homes Sales
Reply   



ALERT
December 2013 U.S. New Home Sales
414K vs. 455K exp. vs. 464K (r 445)prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer



Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 14:56 GMT January 27, 2014
CHINA Source TradeTheNews.com

so it would appear that systemic collapse threat gets the better (upper) hand over the omnipotent corrupt communist rulers...

so when "authority" blathers that it will teach a risk lesson to players (and at same time re-confirm its market directorship) increases the odds of a default and puts the "authority" to the test to see how omnipotent the planners and controllers really are. Chinese shadow banking is China's Achilles's heel - and having missed slapping the market with a lesson only means odds of a massive financial collapse in China have risen.

nw kw 14:53 GMT January 27, 2014
GBP

GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q A)

poss over shot /some bad weather to

Livingston nh 14:48 GMT January 27, 2014
GBP
Reply   
Cable still hasn't priced in Carney's abandonment of forward guidance -- daily chart still above 21dma and wkly uptrend intact (but overstretched) - 10 yr treasurys vs gilts should invert on FOMC day // Carney can't get too far ahead of ECB; a big plate of potential problems for EURzone and it only takes one become serious

GVI Forex john 14:13 GMT January 27, 2014
U.S. flash Markit Service PMI

Hard to keep track on when these data are coming out. New series. Not sure which number to favor (ISM or Markit) when the two numbers diverge. ISM has been around for many many years.

GVI Forex john 14:08 GMT January 27, 2014
U.S. flash Markit Service PMI



U.S. final Markit Service PMI. Divergence betweem ISM and Markit data.

Mtl JP 14:07 GMT January 27, 2014
CHINA Source TradeTheNews.com

flip... flop... ICBC Offers Clients Option to Recoup Funds in Troubled Trust - Bloomberg Jan 27, 2014

“A default was bound to lead to systemic risks that China is unable to cope with, so in that sense a bailout is a positive step to stabilize the market,” said Xu Gao, the Beijing-based chief economist at Everbright Securities Co. Still, implicit guarantees distort the market and “delaying the first default means risks are snowballing,” he said.
-
dang.. so the lesson seems to be... to present a systemic risk to get a bailout

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT January 27, 2014
U.S. flash Markit Service PMI
Reply   



ALERT
U.S. Markit flash Service PMI
56.0 vs. n/a exp. vs. 56.1 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 13:40 GMT January 27, 2014
Pondering

Former Fed Economists Call For Central Bank to Scrap Fed Funds Rate Target - Hilsenrath in wsj

...Under the Gagnon and Sack proposal, the Fed would manage interest rates through two new facilities, one called a reverse repurchase facility and another called interest on reserves, which wouldn’t require the Fed to drain reserves. In effect, it would allow the Fed to push up interest rates even with an enormous balance sheet, which already has $4 trillion in assets"...

nw kw 13:32 GMT January 27, 2014
Pondering

is aud the indicator for the fed move?

nw kw 13:31 GMT January 27, 2014
Pondering
Reply   
Emerging-market currencies slide further??

last time fed backed off for this reason????

what now need feed back=$$$$$$$$$$

prague mark 12:57 GMT January 27, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

close > 1.3695 will confirm 1.3875

Amman wfakhoury 12:51 GMT January 27, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

Amman wfakhoury 08:59 GMT 01/27/2014
mostly it will reach 13706 and goes down.
_________________
as I said price reached 13706 and declined to 13655.
closing this hr bar below 13655 means 100pips movement will continue from 13682.

Syd Sf 12:16 GMT January 27, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

Eurcad fizzled here at 00 .. Boring

Gbpyen looking for one more leg up to 170.74 / 171.34 to sell for
168.85

That's it .. Looking for extremes more than anything.

nw kw 12:08 GMT January 27, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

We have found over many yeas that the futures markets can usually be a good proxy for broader spot market positions.

BUT----the u/j down side was stopped at .98 from CBs as was eur/usd at pick, or eur/chf

HAVENT we learnt not to play with CBs yet

Syd Sf 11:31 GMT January 27, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

They are saying the reserve cbs are buying and selling things to rebalance their reserves according to values.

One they are buying is the aud .. As they are underweight.

As I said before it's contra day today with more normality returning once this winds through.

nw kw 11:20 GMT January 27, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

aud revenge aud/jpy not in aud/usd short eur/aud not gbp/aud

GVI Forex john 11:08 GMT January 27, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
Reply   
#TradeIdeas We appear to be off to a cautious start this week. I have been reflecting on the Commitment of Traders report we post every Friday. The main thing that struck me in the majors is how unbalanced the markets appear to be in #USDJPY. If you look at the JPY chart in the link shown below, the markets clearly are very short #JPY (or long USDJPY). We have found over many yeas that the futures markets can usually be a good proxy for broader spot market positions. When the market in JPY is this unbalanced, its hard to push the #USDJPY higher and the downside corrections can be very nasty as we saw late last week.

Any thoughts to start the week?

http://www.global-view.com/forex-trading-tools/cota.html

Syd Sf 10:33 GMT January 27, 2014
Germany

Wkahfaury .. I've been around the markets for some time .. But I have no idea what your actually trying to do.

GVI Forex john 10:12 GMT January 27, 2014
Germany

Sf- too true. You can't get married to a position in these markets.

Syd Sf 09:58 GMT January 27, 2014
Germany

I suppose it's fairly simple today .. If eur is going up tomorrow .. Then it will go down today and cut all the short term guys out.

You have to have that contra mentality today.

GVI Forex Blog 09:43 GMT January 27, 2014
German IFO Survey better than expected. U.S. Housing data due
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- New Homes Sales The German January IFO survey was stronger than expected, and reinforced the view that Germany remains on a strong recovery path. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.

German IFO Survey better than expected. U.S. Housing data due

GVI Forex john 09:26 GMT January 27, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply   
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are mixed following higher again following nervous risk-off trading on Thursday and Friday. The U.S. 10-yr yield is holding steady as traders wait to get a feel for the lay of the land this week. Equity markets are broadly weaker. The peripheral European bond prices are lower again. Far East shares ended mostly lower. European Equity markets are soft. Today's economic calendar is light with only U.S. New Homes Dales data due.

PAR 09:07 GMT January 27, 2014
Germany
Reply   
Booming German economy as everybody wants to buy high quality German products . Risk of overheating German economy and definitely no risk of deflation .

GVI Forex john 09:06 GMT January 27, 2014
German IFO Survey



German Ifo data improves modestly. EURUSD higher.


GVI Forex john 09:02 GMT January 27, 2014
German IFO Survey
Reply   



ALERT
January 2013 DE IFO Survey
Climate: 112.4 vs. 111.6 exp. vs. 111.8 prev.
Expectations: 108.9 vs. 109.5 exp. vs. 107.4 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer



Direct links to primary data sources

Amman wfakhoury 08:59 GMT January 27, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

mostly it will reach 13706 and goes down.

Amman wfakhoury 08:57 GMT January 27, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

1.3682 wfakhoury directional level .
100 pips up or down 13682.
13655 confirmed also 13706 confirmed.
buy above 13706
sell below 13655

Amman wfakhoury 08:46 GMT January 27, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

if breaks 13740.
13706 confirmed too

prague mark 08:27 GMT January 27, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move

Amman wfakhoury 07:12 GMT 01/27/2014

////////

we go to 1.38... IMHO

Amman wfakhoury 07:12 GMT January 27, 2014
EURUSD 100 pips move
Reply   
EURUSD ready to move 100 pips.
have in mind 13655 confirmed and not reached yet.

Syd 06:57 GMT January 27, 2014
china
Reply   
A slowdown in last week's manufacturing data from China was the trigger for a global wave of selling that first hit emerging-market currencies and is now taking its toll on stocks. HSBC's Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asia economic research, says the risk is great, but this is "no Lehman moment." A credit crunch in China won't reverberate in the same way, the bank says. It could be bad news for commodities, since China is such a big consumer, but the country has a strong current-account surplus and is still a relatively closed economy, which minimizes the impact of incremental slowing. "A sudden jolt would hurt," says HSBC. "A gradual slowdown, by contrast, might leave global growth little interrupted." HSBC forecasts China growth to slow to 7.4% in 2014 from 7.7% a year earlier and adds that even after that slowdown China will still add more to global demand this year than last, equivalent to another two Malaysias. "Expectations veer too far between boom and bust, distracting from calmer deliberations about what a slowing China might mean," HSBC says.

nw kw 06:35 GMT January 27, 2014
Monday Effect

risk on xaujpy,chf puling up rest of gold pack puling down

GVI Forex Blog 06:01 GMT January 27, 2014 Reply   
(JP) JAPAN DEC MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE: -¥1.30T V -¥1.24TE (record 18 straight month of deficits); ADJUSTED TRADE BALANCE: -¥1.15T V -¥1.34TE; 2013 Japan annual trade gap of ¥11.47T (record deficit

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan merchandise trade hits record deficit despite weaker Yen; China markets still under pressure on manufacturing, credit worries - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:27 GMT January 27, 2014 Reply   
Equities worldwide have tumbled big on weak

Morning Briefing : 27-Jan-2014 -0326 GMT

Syd 03:26 GMT January 27, 2014
USD
Reply   
Goldman's Cohen is optimistic about the stock market's prospects for 2014, though she has concerns about long-term trends in the U.S. Economy.

LINK

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:54 GMT January 27, 2014
Yen and Swiss franc rally on risk aversion : Jan 27, 2014
Reply   
Market Review - 24/01/2014 19:28GMT

Yen and Swiss franc rally on risk aversion

The Japanese yen and Swiss franc surged against U.S. currency on renewed risk aversion on Friday due to the selloff in global stock markets. Britain's FTSE 100, Germany's DAX, and France's CAC 40 closed down 1.7%, 2.6% n 2.9% respectively whilst Dow Jones index fell by more than 250 points to close below 16000. The greenback tumbled to as low as 102.00 and 0.8904 versus the Japanese yen and Swiss franc respectively.

The single currency traded with a firm undertone in Asia and then climbed to 1.3740 at European midday due to dollar's broad-based weakness before retreating briefly to 1.3669 in New York morning. Euro tumbled against Swiss franc to 1.2227.

The British pound rallied to a fresh 3-year high of 1.6668 against U.S. currency on Friday on continued speculation the Bank of England could raise interest rates before the end of the year, however, active profit-taking knocked price lower. Cable tanked to 1.6478 after BoE Governor Carney's downbeat comments. BOE's Carney said appreciation of sterling will hold back expansion of net exports.

In other news, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that he did not see deflation in the euro area, which he said is experiencing a "weak, fragile and uneven" recovery. Draghi added that the ECB's "very accommodative" monetary policy is being passed into the euro zone economy; the other thing we are seeing in the last 3-4 months, is that both the improvement in financial markets and our very accommodative monetary policy in place since end 2011.

Data to be released next week :

Japan trade balance, Germany import price index, Ifo business climate, current assessment, expectations, U.S. new home sales on Monday. Australia. New Zealand financial market will be closed due to public holiday.

Australia NAB business confidence, France consumer confidence, Italy consumer confidence, U.K. GDP, U.S. durable goods, S&P home price, consumer confidence on Tuesday.

Australia Westpac leading economic index, U.K. nationwide house prices, Germany consumer confidence, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, U.K. FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.

Japan retail sales, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, Swiss KOF indicator, Germany unemployment rate, U.K mortgage approvals, EU business climate, economic sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP, U.S. annual GDP, PCE core, personal consumption, jobless claims, pending home sales on Thursday.

New Zealand trade balance, Japan manufacturing PMI, household spending, unemployment rate, national CPI, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, housing starts, construction orders, U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, Lloyds business barometer, France PPI, Italy unemployment rate, PPI, EU CPI, Canada GDP, U.S. housing starts, personal income, spending, PCE, Chicago PMI, U. of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday. Financial markets in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam will be closed for Chinese New Year holiday

Mtl JP 01:47 GMT January 27, 2014
Economic Shifts in U.S. and China Batter Markets

KJorea down.. nikkei down.. 2.25% so far
good start sofar

Mtl JP 01:40 GMT January 27, 2014
Economic Shifts in U.S. and China Batter Markets

asia stocks crapping in early trading

Mtl JP 01:03 GMT January 27, 2014
Economic Shifts in U.S. and China Batter Markets

nh 23:22 as I wrote short while ago on -> gvi
- limit leverage
- be prudent - meaning stop being naive about market remaining liquid during moments of market stress as the illusion of liquidity can become very quickly a mirage

Mtl JP 00:53 GMT January 27, 2014
CHINA Source TradeTheNews.com

Syd 00:11 ... 110 words worth... yet disproportionately only the last 13 are worthy: "Investors should take this as a warning and get to know "moral hazard"
-
Jiang Jianqing told CNBC that the event can be considered educational, with investors learning the lesson of moral hazard in financial markets... BUT... that was already few days ago

Syd 00:11 GMT January 27, 2014
CHINA Source TradeTheNews.com
Reply   
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (ICBC) (CN) Follow-up reports indicating ICBC's "China Credit Trust" may not be able to repay CNY3.0B due on loans this Friday, leading to un "unprecedented default" in China's shadow banking system - financial press- According to documents from China Credit Trust, "Currently, there is still uncertainty over whether the trust can be converted to cash before January 31." **NOTE Jan 23rd: 1398.HK: President: ICBC won't compensate investors from troubled product - comment form Davos - ICBC won't be responsible to provide compensation to investors who have bought trust product. - Investors should take this as a warning and get to know "moral hazard". - Source TradeTheNews.com

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
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A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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