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Forex Forum Archive for 01/29/2014

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Syd sf 23:57 GMT January 29, 2014
Asia

japanese retail sales slightly below expected

they were expecting higher ahead of sales tax .. so more will have to come from CB and Abe

anyway Im revising my audyen sell levels up 20 points just to allow for it to hit more to the top of the range

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:44 GMT January 29, 2014
The USDJPY to S&P Correlation Trade
Reply   
One hears a lot about how equity traders feel the value of the USDJPY determines the value of stocks. This is a correlation worth watching because we feel the causation tends to work in both directions.... read more

The USDJPY to S&P Correlation Trade

Livingston nh 22:39 GMT January 29, 2014
Fed Policy Decision

JP - BoE and ECB meet next week -- for trend in this potential currency "crisis" the next step is banking problem -- EUR and GBP are stable so far BUT eastern and central Europe are having problems, Turkey is a trading partner in trouble so banks must have some exposure --1. EURzone banks are at risk and Draghi (deflation bogeyman fear) needs to keep policy loose - 2. BoE, despite employment and GDP news, can't even suggest tightening (recent cable strength is a form of tightening) because GDP was partially based on export strength and tightening shuts that down a bit and Carney will likely focus on Moderate Inflation as excuse to avoid policy change

SO bottom line pick one or both of these to weaken into US NFP next week

nw kw 22:34 GMT January 29, 2014
Fed Policy Decision

she is joing to give us gov.- PMS and rant until they move there but

GVI Forex john 22:31 GMT January 29, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data



January 29, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, January 30. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: NZ- RBNZ Decision, DE- Unemployment, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- GDP, Weekly Jobless, Pending Home Sales, 5- & 7-yr Auctions

  • Far East: NZ- RBNZ Decision.
  • Europe: DE- Unemployment, EZ- Consumer Confidence.
  • North America: US- GDP, Weekly Jobless, Pending Home Sales, Natural Gas, 5- & 7-yr Auctions.


dc CB 22:19 GMT January 29, 2014
Fed Policy Decision



wmbanzai7

nw kw 22:06 GMT January 29, 2014
Fed Policy Decision

JANET beater tell the us gov. that they are still to blame get there job replaced for us public wants blood now

Syd sf 22:01 GMT January 29, 2014
Asia

we also have the China Data out later - the official number

so that will either save the day . or sink the boat .. given state of the market at momo.

dc CB 21:28 GMT January 29, 2014
Fed Policy Decision



Mtl JP 20:05 GMT
Botton Line:
what / where is the next trend trade ? (i.e. greater than 5-60 min chart)

pretty sure it won't be an End-O-Month Window Dressing Ramp, followed by OPM first of the month Oh How Will I "Invest" all this new cash


TAG JANET, YOU'RE IT!!

Syd sf 21:24 GMT January 29, 2014
Asia
Reply   
well I guess its simple today .. if $yen is bearish and this whole move is going to continue then it won't be going above

102.55 and should head to 101.40

aud if its immediately bearish then it needs to test 8670

probably for the best bang for your buck imo would be sell audyen 89.50/70 with tight stop as it won't be bearish if it moves above 89.70 - target 88.10 around.

if anyone has another view or view on something else please let us know.... all the best today.

nw kw 21:02 GMT January 29, 2014
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Decision

nzdusd new usd indicator ,natgas up -u/j bank hear again swiss stocks chopping xauhkd is pulling up

GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT January 29, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 20:17 GMT January 29, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Close Trading Points...
more chart points


About Pivot Points


GVI Forex 20:11 GMT January 29, 2014
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Decision

RBNZ...

While headline inflation has been moderate, inflationary pressures are expected to increase over the next two years. In this environment, there is a need to return interest rates to more-normal levels. The Bank expects to start this adjustment soon.

The Bank remains committed to increasing the OCR as needed to keep future average inflation near the 2 percent target mid-point. The scale and speed of the rise in the OCR will depend on future economic indicators.

GVI Forex Blog 20:08 GMT January 29, 2014
Fed announces another USD 10bln taper. Turkey hikes rates.
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: NZ- RBNZ Decision, DE- Unemployment, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- GDP, Weekly Jobless, Pending Home Sales, 5- & 7-yr Auctions, US- GDP, Weekly Jobless, Pending Home Sales, 5- & 7-yr Auctions The FOMC did not surprise markets on Wednesday at it kept interest rates steady, and announced a USD 10bln tapering of its asset purchases. Some were wondering if the central bank would not taper by a full USD 10bln on concern about the budding EM crisis. On the other hand, long term rates remain at depressed levels and under those circumstances, a tapering made sense. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released. .

Fed announces another USD 10bln taper. Turkey hikes rates.

ottawa ottawa 20:07 GMT January 29, 2014
Fed Policy Decision

short GBP with a stop loss 1.6595...should be a nice 120 pips down..

do yr own r&r

Mtl JP 20:05 GMT January 29, 2014
Fed Policy Decision

Botton Line:
what / where is the next trend trade ? (i.e. greater than 5-60 min chart)

GVI Forex john 20:03 GMT January 29, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

U.S. 10-yr now 2.675%

GVI Forex john 20:00 GMT January 29, 2014
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Decision





ALERT
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Policy Left Unchanged (2.50%)


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 19:50 GMT January 29, 2014
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Decision
Reply   
Said to be a close call, but the consensus is for no change in 10mins.

GVI Forex 19:24 GMT January 29, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply   
Yesterday's boost to sentiment from Turkey's central bank faded. While yesterday's local sessions were influenced mainly by news Turkey had raised its policy rate 425bp to defend its currency, the overnight sessions saw a return to risk aversion.

NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

GVI Forex john 19:12 GMT January 29, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

10-yr now 2.72% roughly steady.

GVI Forex john 19:06 GMT January 29, 2014
Fed Policy Decision

Press Release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that growth in economic activity picked up in recent quarters. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced more quickly in recent months, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable....

GVI Forex john 19:02 GMT January 29, 2014
Fed Policy Decision

No surprises from the Fed. Vote unanimous. Janet Yellen takes over in two days.

GVI Forex john 19:00 GMT January 29, 2014
Fed Policy Decision




ALERT
U.S. Fed Policy Decision
Rates: Unchanged
Asset Purchases 10 bln reduction $65 bln total



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 18:28 GMT January 29, 2014
Fed Policy Decision
Reply   

HEADS-UP: Data (forum top)
EURUSD= 1.3664
GBPUSD= 1.6580
USDJPY= 102.15
USDCAD= 1.1154

US 10-yr= 2.71%
DE 10-yr= 1.63%
UK 10-yr= 2.77%
CA 10-yr= 2.38%
(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 18:19 GMT January 29, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trade, prices in prime fixed income markets are broadly higher on the day after trading weaker earlier. The risk-off trade has taken hold again. European and U.S. equities are broadly down on risk-off as well. The peripheral European bond prices are weaker in response to EM market concerns. Its not certain how the Fed decision shortly will impact.


Livingston nh 18:18 GMT January 29, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

Even if the Fed kept the status quo (w/ no add'l taper this mth) it can't save the EM from money flight -- the hot money knows the taper is here and no sense waiting around -- FOMC would need to add back the 10 bio and announce no more taper until____??? - the zero rate environment leaves no other option

PAR 18:12 GMT January 29, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

Taper and keep low interest rates till 2020 .

Mtl JP 18:04 GMT January 29, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

reference points for direction:
Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
QE3 Pace cons: $65 last: $75
Pace of Treasury Pur cons: $35 last: $40
Pace of MBS Purchases cons: $30 last: $35
-
Basically all marginal pace amounts.

GVI Forex john 17:58 GMT January 29, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

#Fed The problem is the at risk EM's may not take a Fed tapering well while U.S. markets will not take a change in direction kindly.

GVI Forex john 17:56 GMT January 29, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today

#TradeIdeas Earlier this week, it was seen as certain the Fed would announce a $10bln taper in asset purchases today. The EM crisis has raised doubts on whether the Fed will taper for some due to the turmoil in these markets. On the other hand, the Fed could say its mandate is to manage the U.S. economy and last time it pulled the rug out from under the markets on a tapering, the markets did not take it well.. The last time they pulled the rug out from under the markets on a tapering, investors did not take it well.

Personally, I would be surprised if they do not taper by the full $10bln expected, especially with the 10-yr yield at a low 2.70%.

PAR 17:49 GMT January 29, 2014
Bernanke - Yellen

FED is so addicted to money printing and the power associated with it that they will taper very very slowly if at all .

Easiest thing on earth is spending others people money without being accountable .

Mtl JP 17:33 GMT January 29, 2014
Bernanke - Yellen

PAR 17:17 - a REAL drunk and alcoholic neighbor, when he is out of money, (he gets $600 bux in one shot every end-of-month and is out of money by the 4th the next) gulps from a 4 liter jar of pickles as an in-between-filler.
-
Bottom Line
Alcoholics and drunks are ressourceful; they do not have same value system as non-alkies/drunks.

Mtl JP 17:20 GMT January 29, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

john 16:40 - again I beg to differ about the HIGH IMPACT categorization of those releases. Possible Exception: RBNZ
-
Next HIGH IMPACT may come only on February 7th's non-farm release

PAR 17:17 GMT January 29, 2014
Bernanke - Yellen
Reply   
Taper now and stop then the taper till Turkey ,Brazil , South Africa , Indonesia etc are stabilised.

As any good alcoholic ,after a few days of drinking less or not drinking you need to get really drunken again or you feel bad .

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:01 GMT January 29, 2014
How to Avoid the Forex Death Spiral
Reply   
Check out my masterpiece:

How to Avoid the Forex Death Spiral

GVI Forex Blog 16:45 GMT January 29, 2014 Reply   
January 29, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, January 30. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: NZ- RBNZ Decision, DE- Unemployment, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- GDP, Weekly Jobless, Pending Home Sales, 5- & 7-yr Auctions

GVI Forex Data Outlook for January 29, 2014

GVI Forex john 16:40 GMT January 29, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


January 29, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, January 30. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: NZ- RBNZ Decision, DE- Unemployment, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- GDP, Weekly Jobless, Pending Home Sales, 5- & 7-yr Auctions

  • Far East: NZ- RBNZ Decision.
  • Europe: DE- Unemployment, EZ- Consumer Confidence.
  • North America: US- GDP, Weekly Jobless, Pending Home Sales, Natural Gas, 5- & 7-yr Auctions.


PAR 16:30 GMT January 29, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Wit a $ 5 trillion balance sheet , $10 billion tapering will not even be $ 10billion tapering as the Fed Hedge Fund just keeps investing the interest it collects .

Also Bernanke may lower its umployment target . No interest increase till unemployment is ZERO .

zrh pp 16:01 GMT January 29, 2014
ZAR - where is it going
Reply   
Sell OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

ZAR was continuously falling the last year (s) . any idea why and where it will be heading in the future? it s quite at the bottom so it should recover sometimes soon no

GVI Forex john 15:33 GMT January 29, 2014
U.S. Weekly EIA Inventories
Reply   
US EIA


ALERT
Crude Oil: +6.420 vs. +2.000 exp vs. +0.990 prev.
Gasoline: -0.820 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +2.120 prev.
Distillates:-4.580 vs.-1.000 exp vs. -3.200 prev.
Cap/Util: 88.2% vs. 86.7% exp vs. 86.5% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 15:05 GMT January 29, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

a worthwhile question about any pundit, fed watcher and such is:
Does (s)he have skin in the game ?

Mtl JP 15:00 GMT January 29, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

What do Turkey and the Fed have in common? - Hilsenrath in WSJ explains... fwiw

philadelphia caba 14:44 GMT January 29, 2014
eur/chf
Reply   
just picked up some eur/chf longs down here

eu pat 14:39 GMT January 29, 2014
words
Reply   
Noyer (ECB): Any euro strenght would be negative.

He told before eur/usd move down...

hk ab 14:38 GMT January 29, 2014
usd
Reply   
I think the next victim could be euro.......

Mtl JP 14:36 GMT January 29, 2014
Trading Today

mxn is down only 2% ytd vs the usd

Livingston nh 14:19 GMT January 29, 2014
Trading Today

markets will start looking for the next victim - RUB been getting hammered - Mexico and Argentina in race to 14

dc CB 14:15 GMT January 29, 2014
Trading Today

The Money Runners are throwing down the gauntlet.
Will the BenYellen Team follow thru and Taper Moar.
Crash-O-Rama if they do.

GVI Forex john 13:58 GMT January 29, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today
Reply   
#TradeIdeas We have been keeping a low profile today. Earlier it seemed like markets were stabilizing, but we might be moving back into a risk off market again. We just heard from a bank source that liquidity in the "target" EM pairs is almost non-existent. Pre-open U.S. equity futures are now DOWN sharply.

#USDJPY is DOWN as a result. We have no idea if the Fed will be cautious about announcing an additional tapering under these conditions. There is no DOMESTIC reason not to do more tapering, but we will have to see how this all plays out.

HK [email protected] 13:42 GMT January 29, 2014
AUD/USD
Reply   


A signal for approx. 0.8500 target in place now.

HK Kevin 13:32 GMT January 29, 2014
Trading Today
Reply   
Risk off trading?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:31 GMT January 29, 2014
EM
Reply   
EM
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:30 GMT 01/29/2014
EM currencies under pressure, Turkish lira giving back all its earlier gains, JPY getting some of the flows

Livingston nh 13:27 GMT January 29, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

10 bio per month taper is small beer in the US economy but it is 20 bio, 30 bio and rising - it's a lot of missing inflow for the EM folks - the outflow readjustment process in the financial world is always faster than the economic theorists can run // the 10 yr yield is like a coiled spring being squeezed by EM pressure -- remember the Fed reaction in such situations is to cut short rates(e.g. 97-98), an option not available // at some point financial institutions in developed economies (EU?) will feel the pain - fire spreads quickly

Mtl JP 13:26 GMT January 29, 2014
EUR

currently closer to the 100dma than the 50dma

PAR 13:19 GMT January 29, 2014
Turkey= Greece
Reply   
Turkey is in trouble because the Turks aren’t very good at anything in particular, but acted as if they were the next China. They borrowed vast sums from the international market against a glorious future that was never to be. Among all of the world’s big economies, Turkey has the worst current-account deficit, at nearly 8% of economic output, roughly where Greece was before its national bankruptcy. Investors reckoned that with high economic growth, Turkey would have no problem carrying its debt; what they did not take into account is that the growth itself was largely an illusion, a carnival of consumption and construction that depended on increasing debt in the first place,” he concludes.

History has shown that even boosting short-term interest rates by more than half rarely is a sufficient bribe to foreign investors to pour money into an economy that is fundamentally untenable. The extra 425 basis points (4.25 percentage points) in annual yield on the overnight lending rate can be erased, well, overnight. It may punish traders who have shorted the Turkish lira (which means borrowing the currency, now at a higher interest cost) for a time. But it doesn’t address the fundamental problems that beset the Turkish economy.

It’s been suggested that the MINTs–the acronym for Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey–are supposed to be the successor to the BRICs–Brazil, Russia, India and China. Sometimes, MINTs can leave a bad aftertaste.

http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2014/01/28/turkeys-rate-hike-falls-short/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_stw

London Chris 13:17 GMT January 29, 2014
EUR
Reply   
Where are the EUR bulls????

GVI Forex john 13:09 GMT January 29, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot

Thoughts about the Fed today (and yesterday). With 10-yr yields currently at 2.76%, the Fed can have no worries about tapering a full $10bln. The primary purpose of the Asset Purchase Program was to keep long yields low and they are. In the meantime they will still maintain their easy short-term interest rate policy.

HK [email protected] 12:01 GMT January 29, 2014
Profitable and rewarding spying???:)
Reply   


Edward Snowden nominated for Nobel peace prize.

Two Norwegian politicians say they have jointly nominated former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden for the 2014 Nobel peace prize.

Socialist politicians Baard Vegar Solhjell, a former environment minister, and Snorre Valen said the public debate and policy changes "in the wake of Snowden's whistleblowing has contributed to a more stable and peaceful world order".

Being nominated means Snowden will be one of scores of names that the Nobel committee will consider for the prestigious award.

The five-member panel will not confirm who has been nominated but those who submit nominations sometimes make them public.

Nominators, including members of national parliaments and governments, university professors and previous laureates, must enter their submissions by 1 February.

The prize committee members can add their own candidates at their first meeting after that deadline.

LINK

Spotforex NY 11:55 GMT January 29, 2014
Global Markets News

Thats right Syd....South Africa starts off with a press conference arounf 13:00 GMT and announces the decision at one point during it (usually about 15-20 minutes into it)

HK [email protected] 11:54 GMT January 29, 2014
Global Markets News



SF

Is the Q. about the 90 minutes time, or about rate decision?

Syd Sf 11:34 GMT January 29, 2014
Global Markets News

I believe it's 90 minutes till South Africa decision .. If anyone believes it's something different please let us know.

GVI Forex 11:25 GMT January 29, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
As the European session progressed the euphoria from the aggressive Turkish central bank action wore off. Emerging market currencies reverse earlier gains in session and trade weaker against USD and Euro

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro zone M3 growth slows sharply, private loans contract for 20th straight month

Saar KaL 10:56 GMT January 29, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

I will Long Cable
1.6668 1.6430
1.6700 1.6462
Below fair value 1.6550

Saar KaL 10:51 GMT January 29, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

Syd
.. I hope so brother

Syd Sf 10:50 GMT January 29, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

Kal it's a real interesting day for your euro call.

Saar KaL 10:50 GMT January 29, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

EURUSD Fair Value
1.3569
1.3539--> Next week
Trend is south...
P.I Ranges
1.3700 1.3438
1.3670 1.3407 ---> Next week
I say short at will

Saar KaL 10:47 GMT January 29, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

Very Little doubt into not buying Silver Here for 20.5
The same with gold...Maybe a little less would be nice for 1309

GVI Forex Blog 10:26 GMT January 29, 2014
Turkey hikes rates.Risk-off trade eases. Fed decision due
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Fed Decision Today sees the final FOMC meeting before Ben Bernanke's term as Chairman runs out. We expect no surprises from the meeting. It has been made fairly clear that the central bank will announce another tapering of its asset purchases. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released. .

Turkey hikes rates.Risk-off trade eases. Fed decision due

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:24 GMT January 29, 2014
USA

ab that post belongs on tend Political Forum

hk ab 10:23 GMT January 29, 2014
USA
Reply   
The biggest and funniest lie I have ever heard...... US has become the best place for investment......

A country which lives on its own bets and when their weapons are used up one day, it could well become a country of beggars.....

Maybe counting the % of people who lives on SS will be a good indicator.....

Very big EGO indeed last night.

GVI Forex 10:12 GMT January 29, 2014
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Decision Early Thursday
Reply   
The RBNZ is now live, although we expect it to wait until March to start hiking the OCR. If we are correct, 2yr swap rates should fall 4bp in response.

Westpac NZ

PAR 10:10 GMT January 29, 2014
Turkey

The funiest moment was when they put the building of the Indonesian Central Bank on fire and no rupiahs could be deposited .

GVI Forex john 10:05 GMT January 29, 2014
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply   
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are steady to weaker following the large hike in Turkish interest rates to 12% support the Turkish lira. The risk off trade continues to fade. Equity markets are broadly higher.

Asian markets are preparing for the Lunar New Year which starts on Friday and lasts for five days in China. The peripheral European bond prices are higher. The U.S. sees a slow data calendar today. The Fd policy decision is the focus

bali sja 10:02 GMT January 29, 2014
Turkey

PAR, LOL that was one heck of a ride!! No wonder you still remember it vividly :)

PAR 09:53 GMT January 29, 2014
Turkey

Unfortunately I was long Rupiah from 9000 and saw it go to 17000. A lot of sleepness nights but we managed to get out with a profit .

bali sja 09:50 GMT January 29, 2014
Turkey

PAR, you may want to do that again IMHO, Indonesia maybe on the brink of another collapse. This is political year as well, general election and so on, some good volatilities ahead.

PAR 09:45 GMT January 29, 2014
Turkey

I used to trade indonesian rupiah during the crisis when it went from 3000 to 17000. The only country with a sensible response was Malaysia when it established a currency board .All the rest didn't work.

bali sja 09:15 GMT January 29, 2014
Turkey

PAR, Indonesia is also around the same figure FYI

PAR 08:47 GMT January 29, 2014
Turkey
Reply   
With rates at 12% it look like Turkey is becoming another Greece . Its debts are unsustainable and haircuts will be needed.

eu pat 08:36 GMT January 29, 2014
cad/jpy

Hi KaL, I have no position at the moment...probably I will wait after FED...its mixed pictures over the market today.

usd/cad is ist for futher gain (can be move down before)
usd/jpy is set for gain as well. but picture is mixed
Good luck))

PAR 08:30 GMT January 29, 2014
Strange Markets
Reply   
If Turkey raise interest rates to 12 % it is good for world markets .

If the FED should raise rates from 0.25 % to 050% it would be catastrofic for the world economy .

A lot of spin , not much economic sense

Lahore FM 07:57 GMT January 29, 2014
" Trade Ideas "

" Trade Ideas "
dc CB 20:09 GMT 01/28/2014

DC CB Dear thanx for the info..i did not know about it earlier..interesting !

Amman wfakhoury 07:56 GMT January 29, 2014
AUDUSD 0.9924 confirmed

should read .8824 not .9924

Saar KaL 07:55 GMT January 29, 2014
cad/jpy

I am short Pat
Adding
93.4243 90.8158
92.0020 89.3935 --> Next week

eu pat 06:57 GMT January 29, 2014
cad/jpy
Reply   
eu pat 17:26 GMT January 28, 2014
#Your Best Trade for Today: Reply
my Ta and FA show me usd/jpy, aud/usd up, eur/usd , usd/cad down and their crosses will folow it...it is short term trades and some of them can be false...my position is long cad /jpy at 92.00...
----------------------------------------------------------------
Good European morning,
closed my short term trade long cad/jpy at 92.70 a while ago...
sets ups starting change at FED day))

Syd sf 06:24 GMT January 29, 2014
gbp/aud

nice little bounce up to 1.8855

probably leave this alone until after rbnz stuff goes through after the fed.

Amman wfakhoury 06:16 GMT January 29, 2014
EURJPY 140.71 confirmed
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 08:48 GMT 01/28/2014
140.71 confirmed and will be reached.
if 1 hr bar closed above it 141.18 will be reached.
if 1 hr bar closed below it 140.40 will be reached.
------------------------141.18 reached as 1hr bar closed above 140.71

Amman wfakhoury 06:15 GMT January 29, 2014
AUDUSD 0.9924 confirmed
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 09:21 GMT 01/28/2014
0.8824 confirmed will be reached .
1 hr bar closed above it means 8890 will be reached.
1 hr bar closed below it means the return to 8777.
--------------------
0.8824 reached and closed below it.

GVI Forex Blog 05:53 GMT January 29, 2014 Reply   
- (TR) TURKEY CENTRAL BANK (CBRT) RAISES OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE BY 425BPS FROM 7.75% TO 12.00% (MORE THAN 225BPS EXPECTED); RAISES Repurchase Rate by 550bps from 4.50% to 10.00% (none expected); RAISE

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Aggressive policy tightening from Turkey central bank boosting EM sentiment - Source TradeTheNews.com

Saar KaL 05:21 GMT January 29, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

AUDUSD selling in couple of days

0.8933 0.8654
0.8917 0.8639

Saar KaL 04:55 GMT January 29, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

EURUSD IMO is sell at will too
1.3696 1.3435
1.3664 1.3403

Saar KaL 04:51 GMT January 29, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

I think placing sell orders today is a good idea
for usdjpy and EURJPY

IMO USDCAD and USDCHF Longs at now at will

Syd sf 04:48 GMT January 29, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

i see your 103.61 level in $yen on the chart -- the rest sit in that 103.90/104.40 band

its pretty interesting day for it really .. I thought we could get one more leg up later but that may not be right if these levels keep drifting lower.

tks for posting your levels.

Saar KaL 04:46 GMT January 29, 2014
gbp/aud

I am buying GBPAUD at
1.9122 1.8509
1.9191 1.8579

Syd sf 04:40 GMT January 29, 2014
gbp/aud
Reply   
pretty interesting level in gbp/aud here

rising support up to 1.8800 from 1.8785 .. current rate 1.8820.

Saar KaL 04:36 GMT January 29, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

USDJPY
104.1418 101.9532
103.6134 101.4248

selling

Syd sf 04:34 GMT January 29, 2014
$yen

$yen trades with stocks -- if emerging markets protect their markets then that allows stocks to rally

stocks rally = $yen higher

I think one thing though -- you have to be careful with FOMC - that is way more important than anything else -- so whatever position you have best exit prior to that and get back in when you know you have direction right.

for example bearish $yen can go all the way down to 102.10 while bullish $yen can hit 103.90 104.40 .. so there is plenty of points to play with later.

Saar KaL 04:33 GMT January 29, 2014
KaL's Trend and Level

eurjpy
selling
141.2424 138.3428

expect next week

140.1880 137.2884

Same with GBPJPY
172.9236 168.0857
172.3787 167.5407


GVI Forex Blog 03:59 GMT January 29, 2014 Reply   
All the global markets are in a corrective bounce

Morning Briefing : 29-Jan-2014 -0355 GMT

KL KL 03:56 GMT January 29, 2014
short audusd

happy to cover audusd short here .8804 adnd SAR LONG starting here too...then cover .8823...the day's high in Asia and reverse......playing the rangeand collecting the pips...no need to be hero!!...then END the Ben Show......LOL

jkt abel 03:14 GMT January 29, 2014
$yen

sf, i thought the opposite would have happened, raising rates=lower stocks, puzzled...

dc CB 03:03 GMT January 29, 2014
Us economy

President Obama will unveil a new retirement savings plan tonight that allows first-time savers to buy US Treasury bonds tax-deferred for retirement.

he calls it MyIRA...and he flubbed it.

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:39 GMT January 29, 2014
AceTrader Jan 29: Dollar trades mixed against other major currencies ahead of Fed's meeting
Reply   
Market Review - 28/01/2014 21:33GMT

Dollar trades mixed against other major currencies ahead of Fed's meeting

The greenback traded mixed versus other major rivals on Tuesday as investors turned their attention to the outcome of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Market participants are expecting that Fed will cut its asset purchase program by another $10 billion, to $75 billion per month after December last year.

During the day, although the single currency retreated after meeting renewed selling interest at 1.3688 ahead of European open and then tanked to 1.3629 in tandem with cable in European morning, price rebounded strongly to 1.3686 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based selloff after disappointing U.S. durable goods orders reports. Later, euro stabilized around 1.3660 later and traded in a relatively narrow range for rest of the New York session.

U.S. the Commerce Department said on Tuesday that durable goods orders tumbled 4.3% last month, confounding expectations for a 1.8% gain. Orders for durable goods in November were revised to a 2.6% increase from a previously reported gain of 3.4%.

U.S. dollar rose against the Japanese yen after finding support at 102.49 in Australia on Tuesday and penetrated Monday's high of 102.93 to 103.25 in early European trading in part due to cross-selling in yen, however, broad-based weakness in greenback during the New York morning pressured price back to 102.63 before rebounding on short-covering.

Cable fluctuated widely on Tuesday. Despite extending gain from Monday's low at 1.6471 to an intra-day high of 1.6627 ahead of European open, price fell to 1.6536 in European morning after preliminary data showed that the U.K. economy grew in line with expectations in the fourth quarter but added to uncertainty over the Bank of England's forward guidance. Later, price climbed back to 1.6578 and then higher to 1.6615 in New York morning before easing.

Report from U.K showed that the economy grew 0.7% in the final three months of 2013, slightly down from growth of 0.8% in the previous quarter, and expanded 2.8% from a year earlier.

On the data front, the Conference Board said its index of U.S. consumer confidence improved to 80.7 this month from a downwardly revised 77.5 in December. Market had expected the index to rise to 78.9.

Data to be released on Wednesday:

Australia Westpac leading economic index, U.K. nationwide house prices, Germany consumer confidence, Swiss UBS consumption indicator and U.S. FOMC rate decision.

KL KL 01:11 GMT January 29, 2014
short audusd

short again .8817...relentless..and cover before reaching .8808....chase it up...cover when 5-10 pips seen

HK [email protected] 00:08 GMT January 29, 2014
Turkey



Others will follow...not that good for gold prices.

Syd sf 00:01 GMT January 29, 2014
Turkey

south africa meeting later today and expected hike.

its probably the story of slight initial selling but then higher later .. buy dips is my suggestion.

 




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