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Forex Forum Archive for 10/1/2014

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Livingston nh 23:38 GMT October 1, 2014
stocks to close positive

Looking at the post mortems there is nobody that has a clue about the motivation of the markets move today - there is no consensus so there can be no silver bullet cure

Everybody agrees bonds are bullet proof, right? right?

And when the tide goes out ___ it's always the same

Mtl JP 23:15 GMT October 1, 2014
ECB



euro's history of relative dumps
odds are Draghi feels like a wolf looking at the heels of a bleeding doe

Mtl JP 23:14 GMT October 1, 2014
ECB



euro's history of relative dumps
odds are Draghi feels like a wolf looking at the heels of a bleeding doe

Livingston nh 22:20 GMT October 1, 2014
ECB

There is really nothing that ECB can do because of the single currency, fiscal restraint and bank vs bond funding of the economy -- the EUR is a cork on a sea of dollars

The EU is still just a trade zone - so "beggar thy neighbor" is the guiding principle rather than "all for one, one for all"

Ben screwed up by buying money - Mario doesn't even have that option

GVI Forex 22:14 GMT October 1, 2014
ECB
Reply   
17:33 (EU) Nomura: Do not expect ECB to announce any new policy measures; Will maintain a clear bias toward further action if needed - financial press

- Says: "This will be via an expression of the intent to use additional unconventional instruments and alter the size and/or composition of its unconventional interventions should it become necessary to further address risks of a too prolonged period of low inflation... Away from asset purchases, we expect the ECB to remain concerned with the loss of momentum in the business cycle and to see clear downside risks to the economic outlook. Overall, we expect Mr Draghi to keep the threat level of further action as elevated as possible, in order to try and maintain pressure on the exchange rate and keep inflation expectations which remain under pressure - in check."

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Livingston nh 22:04 GMT October 1, 2014
EUR/CHF
Reply   
Consider the possibility that EUR is doomed no matter what Draghi does tomorrow -- too "loose" EUR spikes down, no news re: purchases or size EUR spikes down, Germans seize control of ECB EUR spikes down -- an initial spike would put the Swiss on guard -- intervention ?? and what do they buy with the acquisition ?? EUR/CHF buy at 1.2020 and dump above 121+

Livingston nh 21:47 GMT October 1, 2014
Coming Soon: Stuff you'll never hear about

The FREE Press clause gains new meaning as the Internet promotes opinion above news

GVI Forex john 21:45 GMT October 1, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News



October 1, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, October 2. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Trade, GB- Construction PMI, EZ- ECB Decision, US- Weekly Jobless, Factory Orders


  • Far East: AU- Trade
  • Europe: GB- Construction PMI, EZ- ECB Decision
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Factory Orders, Natural Gas


dc CB 21:29 GMT October 1, 2014
Coming Soon: Stuff you'll never hear about
Reply   
From:The Grey Lady:(no mention of NEWS)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The New York Times plans to eliminate about 100 newsroom jobs, as well as a smaller number of positions from its editorial and business operations, offering buyouts and resorting to layoffs if enough people do not leave voluntarily, the newspaper announced on Wednesday.

Arthur Sulzberger Jr., the newspaper’s publisher, and Mark Thompson, its chief executive, said that in addition to the job cuts, NYT Opinion, a new mobile app dedicated to opinion content, was shutting down because it was not attracting enough subscribers.

The reductions, they said, were intended to safeguard the newspaper’s long-term profitability.

“The job losses are necessary to control our costs and to allow us to continue to invest in the digital future of The New York Times, but we know that they will be painful both for the individuals affected and for their colleagues,” the note said.


The latest product, NYT Cooking, is not charging for a subscription but instead is trying to build a large audience before asking readers to pay. Mr. Sulzberger and Mr. Thompson said that by the end of September, just two weeks after its official launch, the product had more than a million unique visitors.

“They are all experiments, which we are determined to treat as such: to learn, pivot and, where necessary, make prompt decisions about them,”

New York Times Plans Cutbacks in Newsroom Staff

dc CB 21:17 GMT October 1, 2014
stocks to close positive



many down to few up
A/D line

london red 21:01 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

i have looked at the yearly chart and have a similar outcome, plus a 121 target on any break abv that particular trendline. given the move since summer, we can call this first attempt a false break, so the second from whatever the low will be, thru 109/109.50 is probably the real one.
short term i have a trendline at 108.83. if that doesnt hold on an hourly basis i suspect tomorrow morning there will be a lot more action than the uk construction i planned for.

GVI Forex john 20:55 GMT October 1, 2014
Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
Reply   


Selected daily USD & EUR Pivots. Complete Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System


Mtl JP 20:45 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK



usdyen longish timeframe t-line
some current day-chart studies suggest a pause which would match the t-line as temporary resistance

sd sf 20:42 GMT October 1, 2014
Morning
Reply   
Just from my own book.

EUR - bids @14 offers 34 40 42-43
GBP - bids @76 offers @16
YEN - bids @90 offers @18 20 -- some stops under 108.70

CAD - sq.

no real stops in EUR + GBP as with the dips and rallies - it can get out either side.

a lot depends on what the Stock Market does into end of the week - so just let the bots trade their ranges till that is a little clearer.

Livingston nh 20:41 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

Today was a Will Rogers market in treasurys - less concern about return on money than return of money // whole lotta squeezin' goin' on but Friday should tell the tale

USD/JPY was smitten by Hong Kong antics as China expressed concern about yen depreciation and "somebody" (official or analyst??) suggested that the yen would depreciate more slowly above 110 -- Al Jolson says "you ain't seen nothin' yet"

And STOX - the SPX 200 dma is ~ August lo (we broke the 100 dma today so a simple test of Aug lo puts SPX under 200 dma (unvisited level in many months) and anything below will be the first correction to break a prior correction low this year -- and the TAPER is complete (a mere coincidence I'm sure) - Following Rogers and Jolson we will have Yellen performing her composition NOISE

dc CB 20:41 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

picture of 10-yr note's price action savvagery
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I wonder how many "fail to delivers" stacked up today after yesterday's $407bln need for Treasuries to WindowDress by 102 "Institutions", salvating at the NYFED's trough for hypothecatable collateral.

Wonder how much that goosed the bond market today in the scramble for actuals. Guess we'll have to wait a few weeks for that data to be leaked

Take a look at the 2y chart...which by the way according to the COT held the biggest Spec Short in years.

2year COT

london red 20:30 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

i read today that the data caught a lot of people on the wrong side position wise. i mentioned earlier in the week the way the 10yr was set up so i can accept that.
but i have been looking through some notes that came over the wires today and one looks at usdjpy. q4 10213 low to high was 9 figures. q3 2014 low to high was, yep you guessed it 9 figures. on both occasions a higher high was made right at the start of the quarter. what followed then for q4 2013 was a 50% decline before the rally recommenced. back then the 20 day supported on a closing basis, this time the 10 day ma has been sufficient. the fall in q1 2014 taught us that the rallies were fierce, so selling rallies and covering the dips was the order of the day. following downside breakouts usually ended up with losses unless stops were v generous. after the initial move below the 20 day ma, the market rallied almost back to the q4 high but lost nearly 3 figures in two days.

GVI Forex john 20:28 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

In a word I am "dumbfounded".

Mtl JP 20:25 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

john 20:10 r u awed ?

GVI Forex john 20:10 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

10-yr going out a 2.391%

dc CB 20:09 GMT October 1, 2014
stocks to close positive

From: NYFED Trading Desk
To: Da Stox Market
CC: Da New Chicago Desk

We trided(sic) to git the Dow to only read 1XX in da Red,
but we broke it.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

As the late-day VIX slamdown began, and stocks levitated off the lows, CBOE's Futures Exchange "broke." At 1542ET, VIX futures/options stopped trading (though the VIX index continued to push lower).

VIX Options Halted As CBOE Breaks

Mtl JP 20:07 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades



picture of 10-yr note's price action savvagery

Amman wfakhoury 20:07 GMT October 1, 2014
USDJPY
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 16:36 GMT 10/01/2014
USDJPY is heading 109-108.80 any rise above 109.32 will return to it
__________________-
here we are in the are 109-108.80

GVI Forex 19:52 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

US equities and interest rates took a dive. The S&P500 is currently down 1.2% and 10yr yields fell 11bp. Eurozone PMIs disappointed, as did US construction spending and ISM manufacturing activity (the better ADP payrolls result appeared to be overlooked). In addition, Russia said it needed to "protect" ethnic Russians in the Baltics, and there were rumours of a second Ebola case in Dallas.
-- ANZ NZ

GVI Forex john 19:48 GMT October 1, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   
THURSDAY
01:30 AU Trade Important Trade measure
08:28 GB Construction PMI Closely-followed production index
11:45 EZ Europe Cntl Bank More ease to be signaled?
12:30  US Initial Claims   +300 expected
14:00  US Factory Orders Future production predictor
FRIDAY
07:55 DE SVC PMI final Key Service Sector index
07:58  EZ SVC PMI final Key Service Sector index
08:28 GB SVC PMI Key Service Sector index
12:30  CA Trade External sector measure 
12:30  US Payrolls Major Fed Target
12:30  US Trade Impacts GDP calculation
13:45  US Markit SVC PM Key Service Sector index
14:00  US ISM SVC PMI Key Service Sector index


SaaR KaL 19:40 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

GUys
EURNZD is going to blow north

GVI Forex john 19:32 GMT October 1, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

dc CB 19:24 GMT October 1, 2014
Ebola in the USA
Reply   
don't dismiss the effect on a "comsumption" based economy. vis-a-vis STOX. "it's contain(ed)(able)".
(the Secret Service can't stop someone from entering the WH---follow the logic) Big OOOPS our bad to bad for you.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

DALLAS — Health officials in Dallas are monitoring at least five schoolchildren in North Texas who came into contact with a man found to have Ebola virus, after he became sick and infectious.

The authorities also said that an early opportunity to put the patient in isolation, limiting the risk of contagion, may have been missed because of a failure to pass along critical information about his travel history.

After Ebola Case in Dallas, Health Officials Seek Those Who Had Contact With Patient

SaaR KaL 19:22 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

GBPJPY Slow Recovery into Next week...will tak her to 185+ Into April End
Recovers faster then EURJPY IMO

london red 19:20 GMT October 1, 2014
stocks to close positive

not sure it goes far either way before ecb. but however tight the range (maybe 25/30 pts pre ecb, its there to be caught. maybe 2885 low 2620 high. theres uk construction tomorrow, which i dont expect too much from lets say. so eurgbp is going to play a role in the morning.

SaaR KaL 19:12 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

GBPJPY Longs seem Better
Recovering slow into next week
176.9731 176.4491

TGT 178.4401

Mtl JP 19:10 GMT October 1, 2014
stocks to close positive

I like short euro for 1.2550 trgt here , say with 20-30-ish pips sl

GVI Forex Blog 19:06 GMT October 1, 2014 Reply   
October 1, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, October 2. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Trade, GB- Construction PMI, EZ- ECB Decision, US- Weekly Jobless, Factory Orders

GVI Forex Data Outlook for October 2, 2014

SaaR KaL 19:06 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

EURJPY..Longing small

137.8669 137.2026

TGT 138.8110

IMO a Better buy next week
136.9716 136.6232
TGT 141.2457

GVI Forex john 19:04 GMT October 1, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


October 1, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, October 2. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Trade, GB- Construction PMI, EZ- ECB Decision, US- Weekly Jobless, Factory Orders


  • Far East: AU- Trade
  • Europe: GB- Construction PMI, EZ- ECB Decision
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, Factory Orders, Natural Gas


london red 19:02 GMT October 1, 2014
stocks to close positive

nobody interested (long stox) by looks of it JP, id expect that while below that figure. btw i use the index rather than futures to chart in case of any confusion.
bonds moving back to highs at end of session, never good for risk. i might sell dec 10 at 125.66/70 tomorrow if AFTER ecb. i cannot see them going thru there ahead of nfp if ecb passes without too many problem.
but usdjpy moving to low towards end of session, despite the negative signal, i see a bear trap thru 10905/12 to trade to 10947 at some stage tomorrow, then all to play for albeit with a negative bias in my view. a move below 10905 should see 108.50 in a blink of an eye (maybe something for friday if nfp disappoints), but we have to retrace part of todays range tomorrow.

GVI Forex john 19:00 GMT October 1, 2014
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


Mtl JP 18:55 GMT October 1, 2014
stocks to close positive

SnP low sofar 1937.75

Mtl JP 18:51 GMT October 1, 2014
stocks to close positive

1955 ? we are on the downside of 1955 atm.. 1940-ish

SaaR KaL 18:31 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

Correction
GBPCAD Longs
1.8035 1.8062
tgt 1.8216

SaaR KaL 18:30 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

GBPCAD Longs
1.8216 1.8062
tgt 1.8035
this guy wants 1.85 area mid april IMO

GVI Forex Blog 18:24 GMT October 1, 2014
ECB Decision Due. Eurozone Final PMIs Soft. U.K. Mfg PMI Weak. PMIs Elsewhere Lackluster
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Trade, GB- Construction PMI, EZ- ECB, US- Weekly Jobs, Factory Orders

Thursday sees the latest ECB Po;icy decision. No major changes in policy are expected. The surprise outcome would be a strong easing of policy. ADP Private Payroll data showed a gain of +213K in August vs. +202K in July. The data should have no impact on street expectations for a gain in non-farm payrolls of about that figure on Friday.

ECB Decision Due. Eurozone Final PMIs Soft. U.K. Mfg PMI Weak. PMIs Elsewhere Lackluster

tokyo ginko 18:19 GMT October 1, 2014
stocks to close positive

maybe..thanks

order key in 1970.5 to t-p

off to airport...later.

london red 18:14 GMT October 1, 2014
stocks to close positive

youll get your chance ginko. unless they retake 1955 we aint done yet on the downside.

tokyo ginko 18:12 GMT October 1, 2014
stocks to close positive

went in an hour too early...low 1937 ..

now 1941..

upside for now..GT all..

GVI Forex john 18:12 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

10-yr 2.414% -9bp
DJIA-230
S&P --24

EURUSD directionless.

dc CB 18:06 GMT October 1, 2014
Break the buck

The FED "broke the Buck" in yesterday's RevRepo

Collateral Type: Treasury
Submitted: $407.167bln
Accepted : $300bln

Rate (%): Award 0.00%...High 0.05%...Low -0.20%

Temporary Open Market Operations last 25 SEE Sept 30

PAR 17:57 GMT October 1, 2014
Break the buck
Reply   
Money market funds in Europe are fighting to avoid "breaking the buck," which could trigger huge outflows from the sector.

These funds typically invest in cash-equivalent assets, like high-quality short-term corporate debt or government debt. For investors, the advantage they have over stocks is that they're a safe place to park cash. You can almost never lose money in a money market fund.


In return you'll get modest but positive returns, with very low risk. Crucially, they strenuously seek to avoid "breaking the buck" — or returning less to investors than they put in.

Unfortunately, with the European Central Bank (ECB) having imposed a negative deposit rate of -0.2% on reserves held at the bank, this task has become harder than ever. Investors who don't want to lose money are now forced to withdraw it and figuratively hide it under a mattress until the negative interest rate era is over. That could reduce the amount of cash available for companies and governments to borrow (and spend), thus further crippling Europe's fragile economic recovery

Paris ib 17:51 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

Indeed JP. And just watch the margin calls on all the carry trades. The trend is your friend..... until it's not.

Mtl JP 17:50 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

ib 17:42 - I am thinking the levered long accounts be producing sweat bullets . not good moments for folks in debt, be they long stox or short bond

Mtl JP 17:44 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK



stocks still only 50% of Babson Break

london red 17:43 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

1921 nxt for s&p. trendline rising. id say today if not for ecb and nfp week. but 1955 should cap into ecb and poss into nfp on a close below today.

Paris ib 17:42 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

JP... is that a dare?

Mtl JP 17:33 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

SnP and DJIA down only 1.3% or so now
still a hugely long way from a Babson Break

PAR 17:30 GMT October 1, 2014
Ebola
Reply   
Ebola patient flew from Liberia to Brussels and from Brussels to Texas .

Mtl JP 17:28 GMT October 1, 2014
Global Markets News

john 15:59 re "I thought we would never"
what / who, do u thimk, mislead you to think that ?

dc CB 17:23 GMT October 1, 2014
Repos

Note on yesterday's $300bln Repo (of which there was $407bln submitted):

There were 102 bids submitted and 81 bids accepted in today's operation. Bids submitted at the stopout rate were awarded approximately 83% of the amount submitted.

ps the stopout rate is 0.00%.....

TODAY, just done: 53 bids, 53 accepted. 212.481 bid 212.481 accepted. Rate: 0.05%



Temporary Open Market Operations

Mtl JP 17:12 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK



10-yr yield down to 2.41%

Mtl JP 17:06 GMT October 1, 2014
Deflation

PAR 16:57 / no

tokyo ginko 16:58 GMT October 1, 2014
stocks to close positive
Reply   
long snp 1945.75

PAR 16:57 GMT October 1, 2014
Deflation
Reply   
Deflation is caused by oversupply , not by a shortage of credit .

Does Draghi really thinks that buying Greece and Cypriotic junk will really help the European people or is this just a brilliant idea of Blackrock solutions to help their own positions ?

Mtl JP 16:55 GMT October 1, 2014
STOX

DJIA down only approx 1.25%
no circuit breaker yet

Mtl JP 16:52 GMT October 1, 2014
STOX

rare same page as everyone sees the same thing : krapp data

SaaR KaL 16:52 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

Placing shorts eurusd for next day's short layer (2nd oct NY)
GTC
1.2678 1.2632
tgt 1.2550

Same for cable
cable
1.6263 1.6231
GTC 1.6115

Livingston nh 16:48 GMT October 1, 2014
STOX
Reply   
SPX has filled all the mid-august gaps save one ~1935

Stox not sure what the bond market sees?

SaaR KaL 16:43 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

AUDNZD
Suggest you long
1.1197 1.1103

tgt
1.1270

EURNZD Longs as well
1.6220 1.6010
TGT 1.6337

Amman wfakhoury 16:36 GMT October 1, 2014
USDJPY

USDJPY is heading 109-108.80 any rise above 109.32 will return to it

london red 16:11 GMT October 1, 2014
USDJPY

John 109.05/12. Below there the censored storm starts.

SaaR KaL 16:09 GMT October 1, 2014
USDJPY

I bought Jay..
Buy Layer 109.43 109.14
TGT 110.1224

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:02 GMT October 1, 2014
USDJPY
Reply   


Key level is 109.19, yesterday's low

Only below it would produce an outside day (key reversal if closes below)

Low so far 108.25

SaaR KaL 16:01 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

AUDUSD heading to 0.8100 by the end of oct

GVI Forex john 15:59 GMT October 1, 2014
Global Markets News

Another dip down in U.S. stocks. I thought we would never see the 10-yr back down in range of 2.40% again. Any implications for ECB tomorrow?

Dallas JRE 15:36 GMT October 1, 2014
Global Markets News

Some are freaking out here. Is the case of Ebola weighing on equities and airlines on epidemic fears?

PAR 15:36 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

VIX down . Ebola risk up .

GVI Forex john 15:32 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF

Markets have moved from an early  MIXED RISK posture to a RISK-OFF positioning. I am seeing prime bond yields falling as equities sell-off  As of the European close U.S. shares are trying to stabilize. The EURUSD has been trading lower on the day.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are sharply lower. The 10-yr bund is 0.906%,  -4.3% bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.368% -5.9 bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.429%, -7.7bp.The Psychological focus remains on 2.50%.
  • Far East equities were mixed. China was closed for a holiday. Bourses in Europe are closing lower. U.S. shares futures are lower..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex Blog 15:30 GMT October 1, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
In a similar pattern to yesterday's US session, stock prices opened and quickly moved to session lows. Traders are largely looking past the US ecnomic data and focusing a whole host of concerns. Safe haven flows are once again sloshing money out of equities and into the relative safety of US and German bond markets.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Ebola fever has US indices wobbling

Livingston nh 15:20 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

Treasury yields are being influenced by EU rates notably bunds - USD still has relative yield advantage (risk is flatter curve when Fed moves s/t)

Good news is bad news again

PAR 15:15 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

Yields fall ,stock markets recover , the party goes on , Draghi and Yellen are happy .

london red 15:12 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

when yields fall generally the dollar softens. often there is a delay.

PAR 15:12 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

It is still early in NY ,wait for usual afternoon buying to come in with a force .

GVI Forex john 15:04 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

Im trying to figure out if stocks are falling on the data or on fears of monetary policy "normalization" in the U.S. and U.K.?

If its policy "normalization" bond yields should not be falling??

Is this USD positive or negative???

london red 14:59 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

JP, if you have a mo, pull up this chart. dec 10yr. trendline thru august 13 and 22nd lows. it the new (old) red line. same one as for the sept contract that worked so well. think the chart can be very helpful, puts into perspective where we have been and where we are now.

GVI Forex john 14:50 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

10-yr bund 0.908% -4.1 bp.

GVI Forex john 14:48 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

big move higher in bond prices (yields tumbling)

10-yr 2.425% -8.1bp
on 162 point fall in DJIA
S&P -15 points


I had thought we were headed for 2.60%.This time there is no political dimension to this price move..

Paris ib 14:36 GMT October 1, 2014
Trade Idea

Sell USD/JPY. Buy EUR/USD.
Current level 4345 and 1012

GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT October 1, 2014
US EIA Weekly Inventories
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: -1.400 vs. +1.000 exp vs. -4.300 prev.
Gasoline: -1.836 vs. -3.00exp vs. -0.400 prev.
Distillates -2.900 vs. 0.0 exp vs. +0.820 prev.
Cap/Util: 89.80% vs. n/a exp vs. 92.3% prev.
Weekly Petroleum Status Report




TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 14:28 GMT October 1, 2014
Trade Idea

Buy USDCAD
Entry: 1.1180 Target: 1.12++ Stop: few pips under 1.1160

anyone want to second it ?

london red 14:24 GMT October 1, 2014
Wednesday's Trading

10yr dec high on neck line of former shs. last time it broken higher it went nearly a point in 2 sessions. but s&p must go under 1955 fib for break to occur imo. otherwise hard to see where break comes from.

Mtl JP 14:23 GMT October 1, 2014
Trade Idea
Reply   
I need one ... preferably profitable
tia !

london red 14:13 GMT October 1, 2014
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2014

us ism usually slows down during summer. this year the slow down came late give the q2 rebound after v poor q1. october is when we need to worry if no improvement.

GVI Forex john 14:09 GMT October 1, 2014
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2014

Global economy slowing down? Its been a disappointing day for the PMIs.

GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT October 1, 2014
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2014

ISM Mfg misses estimates. Employment index 54.6 vs. 58.1.

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT October 1, 2014
Construction Spending August 2014
Reply   



ALERT
-0.80% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +1.80% prev. rev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT October 1, 2014
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI September 2014
Reply   



News ALERT

56.6 vs. 58.0 exp. vs. 59.0 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer

NY JM 13:54 GMT October 1, 2014
Wednesday's Trading

10 yr 2.436% as stocks extends slide....

FX implications?...

ISM PMI up next

Livingston nh 13:50 GMT October 1, 2014
U.S. Markit FINAL Manufacturing PMI September 2014

in addition to strong payroll growth the Markeit notes :
"Operating margins came under pressure from a sharp and accelerated rise in average cost burdens during September. The rate of input price inflation hit a nine-month high, with firms citing increased raw material costs, salary payments and transportation bills. However, in line with the trend for input costs, latest data also pointed to the sharpest rise in factory gate charges in 2014 so far."

Services inflation can and will rise even faster

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT October 1, 2014
U.S. Markit FINAL Manufacturing PMI September 2014
Reply   



ALERT
57.5 vs. 57.9 exp. vs. 57.9 prelim

Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

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GVI Forex john 13:35 GMT October 1, 2014
Canada Markit PMI September 2014

Canadian PMIs (Ivey and RBC-Markit). Markit mfg PMI weaker.


GVI Forex john 13:32 GMT October 1, 2014
Canada Markit PMI September 2014
Reply   




ALERT
53.5 vs. n/a exp. vs. 54.8 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release


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GVI Forex john 13:01 GMT October 1, 2014
Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System

One characteristic of pivot points is that they can move very wide or narrow after an unusually wide or narrow range in a previous session. Today's pivot support and resistance levels are very wide and should be taken with some caution.

Im looking mainly at the pivot point in EURUSD @ 1.3634
and R1 (1.2697) and S1 (1.2526). Even they appear to be out of range.

NY JM 13:00 GMT October 1, 2014
Wednesday's Trading
Reply   


Stocks set to open lower => bond yields lower => pushing usdjpy lower (and usd lower) - about sums it

Sort of a 1 +1 doesn't = 2 day so far

But see this EURUSD chart, will put consolidating price action in perspective.

GVI Forex john 12:51 GMT October 1, 2014
Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
Reply   


Selected daily USD & EUR Pivots. Complete Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System


Central Kwun 12:31 GMT October 1, 2014
U.S. ADP Private Employment September 2014

Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

quite interesting, data is good but USD drops lead non USD rebound

GVI Forex john 12:27 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK

10-yr 2.452%

Stock futures are weaker and giving bond prices a bid.

GVI Forex john 12:19 GMT October 1, 2014
U.S. ADP Private Employment September 2014

ADP Monthly jobs U.S.


ADP data about as expected. Previous data revised down.






Click on chart for nearly 15-yr history



GVI Forex john 12:15 GMT October 1, 2014
U.S. ADP Private Employment September 2014
Reply   



ALERT
+213K vs. +202K exp. vs. +204K (r 202K) prev.


RELEASE: ADP National Employment Report®



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Mtl JP 11:36 GMT October 1, 2014
Global Markets News

In UK Daily Mail reports that
"More than a million workers got a pay rise today - after the minimum wage was increased by 19p £6.50 an hour. It means those on the lowest legal wage are set to see their pay rise by as much as £355 a year."

SaaR KaL 11:12 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

CHFJPY friday 114.9588 114.4153
will short at 115.0103

SaaR KaL 11:07 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

AUDCAD friday
0.9802 0.9747
could buy that

GVI Forex john 11:02 GMT October 1, 2014
Japan Quarterly Tankan Survey 3Q14
Reply   






EARLIER: News ALERT
Big Mfg +13 vs. +10 exp. vs. +12 prev.


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EARLIER; BOJ Tankan Survey. Expect to see no improvement in three months time

SaaR KaL 10:59 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

Gold friday range
1206 1196

i am shorting inside Layer 1214 1207
Let him have guys

NY Global Traders Association 10:59 GMT October 1, 2014
October Newsletter
Reply   

Thoughts from the Trading Trenches
October 1, 2014
In this issue:

- Currency Wars: Open Warfare
- Forex Trading Outlook for October (video update)

October Newsletter- Thoughts from the Trading Trenches

GVI Forex 10:58 GMT October 1, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News

In the US, the manufacturing ISM index and ADP employment change figures for September are released along with August construction spending. The ISM index has risen strongly since the start of the year in line with the pickup in US activity. However, our global team expect the index to edge downwards from 59.0 in August to 58.9. Following August’s smaller-than-expected payroll gain, which helped persuade the FOMC to maintain its forward guidance, the ADP figures are likely to garner more attention than normal ahead of Friday’s September payrolls data. Finally, monthly construction spending is set to slow a little from last month’s 2-year high of 1.8% m/m.

Lloyds Bank

SaaR KaL 10:51 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

NDX friday
4079 to 4040
will buy today 4030 for the above range

SaaR KaL 10:48 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

Interesting pair for friday close range
GBPNZD 2.1009 2.0843
I am Longing from
2.0687
2.0692

for friday

GVI Forex Blog 10:48 GMT October 1, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
USD/RUB Traded higher in a range of approx 39.60-39.80 with lower oil prices and currency control rumors weighing on the Ruble. In addition the Ruble's level against the Dollar-Euro basket opened at 44.43 beyond the 44.40 at which the Central bank is set to defend the currency

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Peripheral bonds continue to gain amid speculation related to the ECB's ABS program; Weaker German PMI weighs on the Euro

SaaR KaL 10:43 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

Friday close ranges
EURUSD 1.2596 1.2533
Cable 1.6214 1.6129
USDJPY 110.2953 109.7592
USDCHF 0.9619 0.9566
AUDUSD 0.8735 0.8669
USDCAD 1.1264 1.1200

I would use these as option strikes for Friday expiry

GVI Forex john 10:37 GMT October 1, 2014
Australia PMI September 2014
Reply   






Earlier News ALERT
46.8 vs. n/a exp. vs. 47.3 prev.


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Australian PMI remains weak.

PAR 10:36 GMT October 1, 2014
Draghi helping hedge funds with taxpayers money ?
Reply   
Mario Draghi is set to push the ECB to buy junk-rated Greek and Cypriot bank loans, a move that will likely increase tensions between Germany and the bank.
The ECB's executive board will propose that existing requirements on the quality of assets accepted by the central bank be relaxed to allow for the purchase of safer slices of Greek and Cypriot ABS.
Despite Germany's opposition, the country may be outvoted if other eurozone members choose to back it.

Plovdiv Gotin 10:31 GMT October 1, 2014
eurusd

1640/1376 is correct

Plovdiv Gotin 10:27 GMT October 1, 2014
eurusd

With this speed 1.1640/1337 can be seen to the end of 2014, especially when strong sup 1.2617(upside 1.5145, downside 1.2515/1.1875) act like strong res.

GVI Forex Blog 09:44 GMT October 1, 2014
Eurozone Final PMIs Soft. U.K. Mfg PMI Weak. PMIs Elsewhere Lackluster at Best
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- ADP Jobs, PMIs

Eurozone final manufacturing PMIs remained mostly soft . German production has moved into contraction. Swiss PMI remained soft. The U.K. Manufacturing PMI continued its strong negative divergence with the service sector.

Eurozone Final PMIs Soft. U.K. Mfg PMI Weak. PMIs Elsewhere Lackluster at Best

GVI Forex john 09:29 GMT October 1, 2014
Current Conditions: Mixed RISK
Reply   
Markets have moved  into a MIXED RISK posture. Today has seen generally soft manufacturing PMI data. Additional reports are due later from the U.S.  The EURUSD is trading lower on the day.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. The 10-yr bund is 0.945%,  -0.4% bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.427% -1.3 bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.502%, -0.4bp.The Psychological focus remains on 2.50%.
  • Far East equities were mixed. Hong Kong was closed for a holiday. Bourses in Europe are mixed. U.S. shares futures are lower..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


nw kw 09:21 GMT October 1, 2014
Manufacturing PMI September 2014

However, Sterling disappointed yesterday losing to Greenback due to the current account numbers showing a deficit of £23.1 billion, much higher than expected and GBP/USD currently trades at the 1.62 level. Since Mark Carney has reiterated that interest rate rises will be in small increments for the next two years

nw kw 09:05 GMT October 1, 2014
Manufacturing PMI September 2014

13 hours ago - GDP revisions present UK economy in a more positive light ... a wide-ranging methodological shake-up, the performance of the UK economy now ... ​Industrial production has continued to fall in the wake of April's sales tax

http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/

GVI Forex john 08:55 GMT October 1, 2014
Manufacturing PMI September 2014

I am not sure what is going on in the U.K. economy with the wide divergence between Manufacturing and the Services PMIs. Ominous pattern?

GVI Forex john 08:39 GMT October 1, 2014
Manufacturing PMI September 2014

U.K. Manufacturing PMI weaker than forecast. Divergence.


GVI Forex john 08:38 GMT October 1, 2014
Manufacturing PMI September 2014
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

51.6 vs. 52.7 exp. vs. 52.5 (r 52.3)prev.



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Direct links to primary data sources

Tallinn viies 08:23 GMT October 1, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
I had 1,18 target for next year. 1,34 in 1Q15 and then down but now after stronger moves during last couple of months would need to think it over. could it be possible we see eur at 1,0000 during next year? wouldnt be suprised

GVI Forex john 08:23 GMT October 1, 2014
EZ- Final MFG PMI September 2014

EZ, GE flash Mfg PMIs. Mostly soft.

GVI Forex john 08:19 GMT October 1, 2014
Japan final PMI September 2014

EARLIER: Final Japanese PMI. flash PMI unrevised...

GVI Forex john 08:18 GMT October 1, 2014
China NBS PMI September 2014

China PMIs flat.

Haifa ac 08:16 GMT October 1, 2014
eurusd

It is not a "game". It is a bear market that will last years.

GVI Forex john 08:14 GMT October 1, 2014
Swiss PMI September 2014


EARLIER: Swiss PMI weakens

SaaR KaL 08:14 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

AUDUSD Shorts
0.8792 0.8743 tgt 0.8689

Tallinn viies 08:09 GMT October 1, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
new month and new lows. this has been the game since april.
how low is only question.

GVI Forex john 08:04 GMT October 1, 2014
Swiss PMI September 2014
Reply   




Earlier data

50.4 vs. 52.1 exp. vs. 52.9 prev.


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GVI Forex john 08:02 GMT October 1, 2014
Japan final PMI September 2014
Reply   




EARLIER NEWS ALERT
51.1 vs. 51.1 exp. vs. 51.1 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release



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GVI Forex john 08:00 GMT October 1, 2014
EZ- Final MFG PMI September 2014
Reply   




ALERT

EZ- Final MFG PMI
50.3 vs. 50.5 exp. vs. 50.5 (flash)
France
48.8 vs. 48.8 exp. vs. 48.8 (flash)
Germany
49.9 vs. 50.3 exp. vs. 50.3 (flash)


Markit PMI Press Release



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GVI Forex john 07:59 GMT October 1, 2014
China NBS PMI September 2014
Reply   




EARLIER: China PMI's
NBS: 51.1 vs. 51.1 exp vs. 51.1 prev.


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SaaR KaL 07:14 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

EURUSD short Layer
1.2667 1.2633
tgt 1.2559

cable
shorts
1.6272 1.6233 TGT 1.6136

PAR 06:52 GMT October 1, 2014
European Defalation - Russia
Reply   
European sanctions against Russia put so much pressure in Agricultural prices and on other products that this lead to lower prices . Instead of reducing production Europ is giving subsidies to farmers and other industies to keep production going .

To beat deflation it would be better to stop subsidies than to lower interest rates.

GVI Forex Blog 03:50 GMT October 1, 2014 Reply   
The Holiday week begins in China & Hong Kong markets along with a very long weekend in

Morning Briefing : 01-Oct-2014 -0349 GMT

SaaR KaL 02:35 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

CHFJPY shorts
115.3534 115.0945
tgt 114.4092

SaaR KaL 02:16 GMT October 1, 2014
Day's Trades

Closing AUDUSD shorts

Longing AUDNZD
1.1187 1.1131

TGT 1.1373

Mtl JP 00:27 GMT October 1, 2014
Global Markets News

David Cameron: The UK is 1000 times more important than the EU - telegraph
-
I still have some coasters from way back: "EU lets get shot of it"

GVI Forex Blog 00:14 GMT October 1, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Euro falls to fresh two-year low of $1.2571

* Euro zone inflation cools further in September

* China PMI & Australian retail trade data next in focus

FOREX-Euro pressured as low inflation puts heat on ECB

GVI Forec 00:02 GMT October 1, 2014
Japan
Reply   
MNI: BOJ SEP TANKAN LARGE MFG INDEX +13; JUNE +12; MNI MEDIAN +10

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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