dc CB 23:56 GMT October 2, 2014
Where is Carmen Segarra
Mtl JP 22:51 GMT
Carmen Segarra to GS/FED more, equal or less equivalent to what Snowden
Carmen will never be heard from again...maybe once at the Eliz Warren's "Hearings".....put into perspective recall the Carl Levin "shitty deal" Show, that went nowhere.
ps; my Chase credit card has been replaced twice in the past month because "somebody else" used it. But then Kudos to Chase for catching it 2x and canceling it.
Mtl JP 23:55 GMT October 2, 2014
Truth or Dare
more like truth and consequences
dc CB 23:50 GMT October 2, 2014
Where is Carmen Segarra
When doubt emerges STFU
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reporters asked: How many of Duncan's younger contacts were in school this week? Why weren't the four individuals quarantined in a medical facility? Why weren't soiled linens that likely carry the virus immediately removed?
The event became increasingly confrontational.
Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings scolded journalists for being "part of the problem" while calling the response to the case "at best, disorganized."
"It is, at best, disorganized out there and we have some members of the press that are creating a bit more of that," he said. "We need everybody to be professional."
Health officials clam up about effort to contain Ebola in Texas
dc CB 23:44 GMT October 2, 2014
Truth or Dare
Reply
$250K per speach....why can't he just buy the house?
More NEWS to Confuse. (see the Big Lie...Goeblels
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The former Federal Reserve chairman, speaking at a conference in Chicago, told moderator Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics Inc. -- “just between the two of us” -- that “I recently tried to refinance my mortgage and I was unsuccessful in doing so.”
When the audience laughed, Bernanke said, “I’m not making that up.”
You Know It’s a Tough Market When Ben Bernanke Can’t Refinance
Mtl JP 22:51 GMT October 2, 2014
Where is Carmen Segarra
dc CB 19:06 is Carmen Segarra to GS/FED more, equal or less equivalent to what Snowden is to American snoops ?
GVI Forex john 22:04 GMT October 2, 2014
CALENDAR: Weekly Trading Planner
Reply
October 2, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, October 3.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, US- Employment, Service PMIs
s
- Far East: No Major Data
- Europe: EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales
- North America: CA- Trade US- Employment, Service PMI's, COT Report
Amman wfakhoury 19:54 GMT October 2, 2014
EURUSD 12695 and 12620 confirmed
Amman wfakhoury 12:27 GMT 10/02/2014
both 12695 and 12620 confirmed any decline below 12641 will return to it..so buy add buy if decline.
-------------------------------
12695 reached
sd sf 19:14 GMT October 2, 2014
Morning
Reply
I'm out to the airport in a few hours so just posting bit earlier than normal.
EUR - saw selling above here and bids coming in @67 64 62 and @40 below
GBP - saw selling @70-71 now buying coming in @38 39 40
YEN - saw buying below filled and now offers coming in 43 44 and 52 56
CAD saw buying @45 to take a loss on shorts .. seeing buying of eurcad @28 30 32
AUD - offers 30-40
I would think Asian Open buying of USD - but then profit taking coming in again .. ESP AUD + NZD
dc CB 19:06 GMT October 2, 2014
Where is Carmen Segarra
Reply
He spake today.
“I completely stand behind the integrity and work of our supervision staff,” he said after a speech today in New York. “They are operating completely in the public interest.”
Dudley said there has been a “significant reorganization” following a report commissioned by the regional Fed bank, and that “improving supervision has been and remains an ongoing priority for me.”
“I don’t think anyone should question our motives and what we are trying to accomplish,” Dudley said today in defense of his institution. “Examiner independence is completely paramount.”
Prior to joining the Bank in 2007, Mr. Dudley was a partner and managing director at Goldman, Sachs & Company and was the firm's chief U.S. economist for a decade.
Bill Dudley Responds To Charges NY Fed Is Controlled By Goldman Sachs: "Nobody Should Question Our Motives "
GVI Forex Blog 19:06 GMT October 2, 2014
AUD and NZD
Reply
European equities fell sharply, temporarily hurting US equities and slightly denting the US dollar. ECB President Draghi disappointed the market by neither moving any closer to broad-based asset purchases nor detailing the size of asset-backed bond purchases. The Eurostoxx 50 closed down 2.8%, while the S&P500 later recovered to be down only 0.2% as we write.
Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts
dc CB 19:01 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
10yr moves sharply down to support. someones set up for a +ve nfp
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
another POV, Taking advantage of the Fear to Clear the shelves for next weeks Auction (wow and at a profit...who da thunk)
3Y 27bln Tues Oct 7
10Y (reopen) 21bln Wed Oct 8
30Y (reopen) 13bln Thurs Oct 9
Like clockwork
london red 18:56 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
10yr moves sharply down to support. someones set up for a +ve nfp. a yen close at 108.50 should have asia buy into it. s&p maybe closes at 1955 just a few points off it now. dont think they have the balls to run it higher.
hk ab 18:44 GMT October 2, 2014
Obama Live
biggest joke in global trader's eyes.... Obama.....
dc CB 18:44 GMT October 2, 2014
Obama Live
*HEALTH CARE INFLATION IS AT A 50 YEAR LOW
GVI Forex john 18:41 GMT October 2, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply
EURUSD revisiting R3 1.2698. (HOD now 1.2699).
Just heard of a 1.2700 option expiry tomorrow, but I cannot confirm.
dc CB 18:41 GMT October 2, 2014
Obama Live
*WE MADE IT ILLEGAL FOR BANKS TO GAMBLE WITH YOUR MONEY
london red 17:57 GMT October 2, 2014
USD/JPY
stage is set for a good move tomorrow. in yen and euro. so thats the main thing. if it doesnt move you cant make money. option writers aside.
fwiw euro weekly candle interesting. a day to go still however. and quite an important one which will resolving some issues as you say.
Livingston nh 17:49 GMT October 2, 2014
USD/JPY
red - Japanese half year playing a role but yesterday and today seem a function of the Treasury market chaos since last week which should resolve itself tomorrow // but it is the yen, of course, so we shall know in the fullness of time
london red 17:42 GMT October 2, 2014
USD/JPY
nh, we closed the quarter at a high, so you expect some backing up. only once in 30 years we didnt get that. as for the pullback, for me the first level is the 76.4 10790 which was almost done today. if we do a new high then its likely thats all we'll see this quarter . but until we do a new high, the risk will be for a retest of 76.4/further retracement. they come off 37 but buying are in again. lets see the second reaction at 37, with 200 ma on minute chart capping so far as well.
Livingston nh 17:30 GMT October 2, 2014
USD/JPY
Reply
USD/JPY is in the second leg of a bull market that started w/ the implementation of QE3 -- you can see this in a monthly chart - note that the rising 21 sma has crossed above both 89ema and 55ema // it would be unusual for a monthly pause or significant retracement this early in the second leg of a bull market
Paris ib 17:27 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
Yes that was last week's low but (far as I'm aware) an outside week down requires a higher high (we got that) and a lower low with a close on the low. So we would need a close at least below 108.24 - preferably at the low which is so far 108.02
london red 17:23 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
i have last weeks low at 108.25. we should in theory touch the 76.4 (almost did) and then it tries to rally (the begins we are seeing now). i think it then fails between 110 and 109.50 then hits the 76.4 where it either double bottoms or breaks and we look to the 38.2% level.
Paris ib 17:15 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
Outside week down in USD/JPY would require a close of 108 or lower - today's low so far and the low so far for the week. If we get a bounce in equities (possible / likely) then that might be a big ask. We'll see. Certainly this week's action so far has given the USD bulls a good kicking.
london red 17:14 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
i saw that note yesterday. and you know what. up to this morning the first two trading days of this q were the same as q1 this year, at least in terms of direction/shape of trading chart. we would need to rally back to 109 by the close to be identical, which isnt going to happen today.
of course they are right you have to have some retracement. even the yen. they warn the q1 retracement ended up at 50%. i think that would put us at 105.50/106.
but one step at a time. 76.4 is still holding 107.90 38.2 is 106.55
Paris ib 17:08 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
Initially being the key word. NFP is a b.ugger to trade.
I note that Citibank is coming out all USD/JPY bearish all of a sudden. Join the crowd? I don't much like to. :-)
dc CB 17:07 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
the NYFED desk at work. remember yesterday afternoon just before the close dey don' slammed the VIX so hard dey Broke the exchange.
london red 17:02 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
lighten up zone 10837/50. lets see the reaction there. a close at/abv 10850/55 will give a long tail and bulls hope. in such a case its certain there will be a rally on good nfp. initially.
Paris ib 16:55 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
red I agree. For now this is a pullback. There is no need to make longer term projections. It's always a work in progress.
Mtl JP 16:52 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
ib it means that if you accept official pablum dispensations just like those players who have expectations of higher n sooner interest rates in reaction/anticipation to strengthening US economic trend, you could be on the right side of a trade
dc CB 16:50 GMT October 2, 2014
POMO
Reply
today's...seems the desire to sell to(dump on) the FED remains strong.
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $931
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $5,430
london red 16:47 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
my experience of these situations heading in nfp in the mood we are, suggests you sell the dollar rally on a good nfp and that yen and euro will beat todays highs at least intraday tomorrow. fwiw yen might see 109.50 and fall back to 108 given optimal conditions.
we are in dollar pullback mode. for now thats all it is. not a structural fall, just a retracement. below 105/106 yen and 130+ euro then it get to be more significant. but theres no reason to look for that just yet.
Paris ib 16:24 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
Say we get a weaker number that won't stop QE coming to an end. So we get the end of QE and a long period of nothing.... no rate hikes, no rate cuts. The market left to its own devices. The training wheels come off. Now that could be interesting.
A stronger number? Well we will get chatter of earlier than expected rate hikes. But what does that mean? April at the earliest ?
One way or another the U.S. will have no real monetary policy at work come end of October.
london red 16:19 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
JP, i currently have futures at 27 index at 34. i am using the index for charting. when i trade it the odd time i use options or adjust the futures quote for entry/stops. the low so far on the index i have is 1925, 2 short of the trendline. i suppose the emini will have a similar trendline possibly a point or two either way.
Mtl JP 16:18 GMT October 2, 2014
Just what we need
nh 16:09 sounds like an old fog generator being dusted off for more frequent use. Yellen must think players are fools.
Mtl JP 16:10 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
red 15:49 although I appreciate your honesty u r also too self-depreciating :-)
as u were posting the 1921 , I saw it flash to 1918.x and just as I was typing 10-yr rocket up and dragged SnP quote above 1921 and higher, now ~1927.
like it or not: kudos
and thx
Paris ib 16:09 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
USD/JPY bears watching. It's been a very quick move up to 110 so a lot of stops could get triggered on the way down.
Livingston nh 16:08 GMT October 2, 2014
Just what we need
Reply
John - in the lull before the storm - Fed is adding a NEW Indicator - maybe you want to add to your Indicators Gradebook
london red 16:06 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
i say we get 250 or 150. due to the 142 last. either we bounce or confirm slower trend. it would be unfortunate to get a 200ish print, makes trading more choppy/two way.
Paris ib 16:03 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
How far of an outlier does NFP have to be to impact the market given trading action in the last couple of days?
It would have to be massive to have any impact at all. The QE comes to an end at the end of the month..... and that saves the USD ?? Doubt it. There just isn't a USD bear out there at the moment. At least not in public. :-))
jkt abel 16:02 GMT October 2, 2014
sell euro
Reply
sold euro 1.2668 with stops above 1.2720
GVI Forex john 15:59 GMT October 2, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply
Equity markets are ending Thursday in a clear RISK-OFF
posture as stock prices have fallen. There is talk that the ECB meeting
today may have seen President Draghi encounter strong opposition to
additional QE The
EURUSD is off its highs of the day.
- Yields
in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are mixed to higher after yesterday's sharp declines. The
10-yr
bund is 0.907%, +0.7% bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed to
higher.
- The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.343% -2.5 bp. BOE Gov
Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015
rate hike.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.395%, +0.8bp.The Psychological
focus remains on 2.50%.
- Far East equities were mixed. China was closed for a
holiday. Bourses in
Europe are ending lower. U.S. shares futures are lower..
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
london red 15:59 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
todays high for dec 10yr is 76.4 retrace of mid aug high to mid sept low. a break higher and you are looking at aug high with 126 right shoulder of shs on way.
one thing is for sure, they are certainly not positioned short for nfp now.
Paris ib 15:56 GMT October 2, 2014
The Great USD Unwind
Reply
'The CFTC's Commitments of Traders report... showed speculators had a net euro short position of -141,965 contracts as of Sept. 23, versus last week's net short of -137,149 contracts.
This compared to the -161,423 contracts seen Sept. 2, which was the largest net euro short since July 17, 2012 (-167,249 contracts).
A contract size over 100,000 contracts is generally viewed as extended.
The record net euro long was +119,538 contracts May 15, 2007, and the record net euro short was -214,418 contracts, June 5, 2012....... '
When the whole market is set the same way it's tricky to find a bid. Tomorrow is going to be interesting.
Everyone is long USDs
Chicago AG 15:55 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
It is comical to see CNBC try to explain the equity correction. It even dragged our Warren Buffet as a cheerleader but that didn't help. This is still just a correction.
london red 15:52 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
trendline at 1923 yesterday 21 hence my confusion. the 11/13 are a couple of fibs.
london red 15:49 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
scrub the 1921, it may work it may not, i cannot seem to relocate my research on that figure. the target for 1955 break is 1911/13.
Mtl JP 15:49 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
somebody just bot some 10-yr and SnP popped above 1921
-
red u got some good micro-term insight
london red 15:47 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
yen 23.6 at 107.90. if they dont hold in close the asians will let loose again.
SaaR KaL 15:45 GMT October 2, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply
USDCAD , USDJPY careful Guys
COuld be at top for next year drop
Linear trends wont work... look at the bigger picture
USD is again under threat
Might see it around 68 next year
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:45 GMT October 2, 2014
How a Forex Trader Makes Money Using Pivot Points (Part 2)
JP, I know what my account shows but would be nice if others gave us feedback.
I want to thank you for alerting us to how you use pivots to trade as it is led to our series on how to use it and is now in my daily toolbox.
GVI Forex Blog 15:38 GMT October 2, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply
The ECB left interest rates unchanged, as expected, after last month's unexpected rate cuts. ECB President Draghi provided some more details regarding the asset purchase plan, but failed to put a hard total amount on how much would be purchased. Draghi merely said that the bank's balance sheet would grow back to 2012 levels, which would be about €3.0T compared to near €2.0T today.
TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: ECB Leaves the Bazooka on the Shelf
PAR 15:38 GMT October 2, 2014
Inflation
Reply
If you want inflation , raise VAT levels and you solve two problems at once . Prices go up and budget deficits go down . Too simple for politicians and bankers.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:31 GMT October 2, 2014
How a Forex Trader Makes Money Using Pivot Points (Part 2)
We could use some feedback on our series of articles on using pivot points. They worked remarkably well today as I highlighted in this article so would be helpful if we got some feedback or discussion as the EURUSD 5% odds trade was pointed out in real-time earlier.
Mtl JP 15:21 GMT October 2, 2014
More Hel from IMF do-gooder
Reply
IMF's Lagarde: 'Mediocre' global recovery needs help
Lagarde: Growth may slow down in China, Asia
-
Lagarde's prescription: countries to adopt new policies outside of monetary policy to bolster growth - including fiscal policy, structural reform and infrastructure investment.
poof... desease cured
PAR 15:17 GMT October 2, 2014
ECB ( Economic Central Bureau )
Reply
Draghi going back to Soviet style central planning with the help of Blackrock . The Economic Central Bureau will decide where to allocate capital ,which bonds to buy and which bonds not to buy , which comrades to help and which comrades not to help .
We have all seen what wrong capital allocation did to the Soviet Union. I know Italy has a long tradition of communist parties , but imho this is not the way for Europ to go .
Capital should be allocated by the market and not by the apparatski of the ECB.
dc CB 15:17 GMT October 2, 2014
Ebola in the USA
JP
there's very little threat of Ebola on Canadian soil.
from my recollection, Toronto airport is quite the international hub
Mtl JP 15:06 GMT October 2, 2014
Ebola in the USA
from the I am from the Govt and I am here to Save You file:
Canada prepping for potential Ebola cases but still sees risk as low: Ambrose, te federal health minister and chief public health officer say there's very little threat of Ebola on Canadian soil. Dr. Gregory Taylor outlines precautions to take when travelling to a region where an Ebola outbreak is occurring.
-
In the meantime, somewhere, someone(s) is probably placing massive Concertina wire and Napalm orders
Mtl JP 14:55 GMT October 2, 2014
Ebola in the USA
may the nurse is geographically challenged ,
ebola .. angola .. mybola, yourbola, parabowla...
GVI Forex Blog 14:38 GMT October 2, 2014
Reply
October 2, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, October 3. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, US- Employment, Service PMIs
GVI Forex Data Outlook for October 3, 2014
Livingston nh 14:20 GMT October 2, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day
Today's EVENT was a wet firecracker - maybe tomorrow
hk nt 14:13 GMT October 2, 2014
eurusd
believe euro 1.00-1.05 is in the radar
GVI Forex john 14:07 GMT October 2, 2014
CALENDAR: Daily Forex Data News
Reply
October 2, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, October 3.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales, US- Employment, Service PMIs
- Far East: No Major Data
- Europe: EZ/DE/FR/GB- Service PMIs, EZ- Retail Sales
- North America: CA- Trade US- Employment, Service PMI's, COT Report
Tallinn viies 13:56 GMT October 2, 2014
eurusd
Reply
Draghi is like true GS guy. just by talking achieves his targets.
so far he has not provided any real stuff but euro is 10% weaker :)
GVI Forex john 13:49 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
PAR 13:46 GMT 10/02/2014
Edit Delete
"If you cannot convince them confuse them"
Agree 100%. Actually Draghi said nothing re forex.
london red 13:48 GMT October 2, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day
v strong bounce at 7836. looking pivotal. 2 yards of 1.61 cable goes ex shortly might be having effect.
PAR 13:46 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
"If you cannot convince them confuse them"
A
london red 13:34 GMT October 2, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day
loonie. holds 11129 fib after hitting 100 hour ma at 11163. thats the fence on this one.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:27 GMT October 2, 2014
Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
R3 = 1.2698
Red, that is a good question... I did notice when EURUSD broke its S3 enroute to 1.2571, it then bounced back above it.
london red 13:26 GMT October 2, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day
eurgbp worth keeping an eye on. below 7836 and its likely game over although 10 day at 7820 can theoretically support. some res at 7850 stands between move to v good block of res at 7875/85.
euro needs to move back below 12650/36 and close the week ideally below there as well otherwise next week will be more two way trade.
london red 13:22 GMT October 2, 2014
Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
%5 odds of reaching r3. a good question to look would be what is the blow out on a break of r3. and once reached the percentage that move back towards r2/1 and the percentage that blow out further.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:21 GMT October 2, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day
3rd time saw the break of 1.2674.
By the way, and not to toot my own horn (which I rarely do), I am the only one that I have seen who pointed out what an ECB surprise would be (fx comment).
GVI Forex john 13:12 GMT October 2, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: European Central Bank (ECB) October 2014
EURUSD appears to be reacting to Draghi comments on forex:
-- "Exchange Rate Important for Price Stability, Growth"
-- "Exchange Rate Is Not A Policy Target"
Personally I would not over-interpret the Draghi comments. I'm sure a weaker EUR is welcomed
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:07 GMT October 2, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day
Draghi against sidesteps fx question saying FX is not a policy tool and it has no target.
NY JM 13:05 GMT October 2, 2014
Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
John, that makes sense as EUR is being used to fund carry trades. So liquidations of say equities funded by euro borrowing (same with JPY) would see the fx (funding) side liquidated as well. Just my two cents.
Mtl JP 13:04 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
minor t-line Res at 1.2665
Amman wfakhoury 13:04 GMT October 2, 2014
EURUSD 12695 and 12620 confirmed
when I confirmed level ..it will be reached within 24-36 hours.
I gave you Return level which is the same as starting level of the trade.the level price will return to it in case moved in opposite direction.
if the price did not reach itis target within 24-36 another signal will be issued in opposite direction.
PAR 13:01 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
I cant say whether the ECB balance sheet will €2 trillion or € 3 trillion . Not very clear imho .
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:00 GMT October 2, 2014
Forex Trade of the Day
Draghi sidesteps question on the exchange rate and attributes current trends to diverging economies.
He had a chance to slam the EUR but didn't do so -- suggests pleased with trend (not a surprise) but not looking to push it over the ledge.
See my video update for what I considered an ECB surprise,
GVI Forex john 12:55 GMT October 2, 2014
Chart Points -- Pivot Point Trading System
Note todays pivot point (based on yesterday's range) at 1.2613 has held (LOD 1.2614). I use the pivot point as a benchmark for the tone of the market. R2 (1.2669) is the other key level that has come into play (1.2675 HOD).
I am not 100% convinced of this, but I have seen on occasion a long EURUSD trade as a RISK-OFF position.
Thoughts?
PAR 12:55 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
See G20 .
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:52 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
He was just asked about the exchange rate so stay alert for his answer...
PAR 12:52 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
Draghi ,I dont know the details . Details will be provide later . By outside consultants ?
Bahrain MB 12:49 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
Reply
Why eurusd firmer? Did Draghi say anything or am I missing something?
Draghi 12:48 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
Draghi actions postponing structural reforms . It all makes no sense .
PAR 12:41 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
Italian wine and Limoncello ?
london red 12:35 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
bit of a delay. maybe they cant agree on something
Livingston nh 12:30 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
JP - put up or shut up day for Draghi? Does the Emperor really have clothes or will the market call him out? EUR usually drops after ECB
london red 12:29 GMT October 2, 2014
EURUSD 12695 and 12620 confirmed
options suggest 12550/127 max range from what i can see. he will need to do something unexpected for us to beat that.
Amman wfakhoury 12:27 GMT October 2, 2014
EURUSD 12695 and 12620 confirmed
Reply
both 12695 and 12620 confirmed any decline below 12641 will return to it..so buy add buy if decline.
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
Mtl JP 12:22 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
what is the trade set up ahead of draghi yak at bottom of hour ?
PAR 12:10 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
ECB , more outside advisers needed ? What are those 2000 people in Franfurt for ?
European Central Bank is seeking tenders from financial firms to provide it with calculations on the likelihood of losses on asset-backed securities and covered bonds as it prepares to purchase the debt.
The central bank is also looking for data on market prices and assistance with modeling cash flows, according to a notice on the ECB’s website. The three contracts are slated to start in November and last four years, the document shows.
The ECB is preparing to buy a broad portfolio of ABS and covered bonds and will disclose details after policy makers meet today in Naples, southern Italy. By seeking expert advice, the central bank will get data that will enable it to decide which securities to buy and how to manage them, according to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA analyst Aaron Baker.
“With these three contracts the ECB will gain information that can help inform the scope of its purchase program,” said London-based Baker, who analyzes the covered bond and ABS markets. “Requesting the ability to structure hypothetical cash flows suggests it could be looking at purchasing retained deals, while the information could also be useful as it seeks support from governments for guaranteeing certain ABS.”
PAR 11:53 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
Draghi would love to invest European taxpayers money (spending others people money is real fun ) into peripheral junk assets .
Real objections from more sensible center European countiries which will have to pay the bill if eventually things go wrong .
PAR 11:49 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
Reply
Draghi At 2.30 the Blackrock presentation on the ECB ABS buying program .
As nobody at the ECB understands ABS market better to let the consultants give the presentation .
Haifa ac 11:44 GMT October 2, 2014
Ebola in the USA
FARRAKHAN: Whites Created Ebola to Kill Blacks...
.....CIA operatives working to kill off the Indigenous population so that nobody can threaten their takeover of oil.
Another method is disease infection through bio-weapons such as Ebola and AIDS, which are race targeting weapons. There is a weapon that can be put in a room where there are Black and White people, and it will kill only the Black and spare the White, because it is a genotype weapon that is designed for your genes, for your race, for your kind.
.......
http://www.finalcall.com/artman/
publish/Minister_Louis_Farrakhan_9/
article_101804.shtml
finally the truth.
London Chris 10:17 GMT October 2, 2014
uk
A looks like GBPJPY has been driving the bus.
SaaR KaL 09:55 GMT October 2, 2014
Day's Trades
aususd...most likely 0.8630 today
SaaR KaL 09:37 GMT October 2, 2014
Day's Trades
IMO If USDJPY does not go over 108.77 today
Could mean a crash
A bad one
SaaR KaL 09:30 GMT October 2, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply
There are no day trades
Expect the un expected
USDJPY could be on way to 100
london red 09:17 GMT October 2, 2014
uk
eurgbp 10 day ma 7820. abv there 7874 prev low and fib at 7880 make a good selling pt. thru 7936 means we probably get there.
cable if below 16160/50 then 16095/161. eurgbp is driving.
london red 09:12 GMT October 2, 2014
Construction PMI September 2014
while manufacturing is still a big employer, its contribution to gdp is small. pay and benefits in the uk are too high to change that, so manufacturing remains uncompetitive. and while europe is creating almost no external demand for the uk, manufacturing is set to underperform.
the uk is all about services (in particular finance) and property. in a timezone sweetspot, it will remain central as a hub for world finance.
i cant see that changing john. anyway the uk is all about two tiers. the north and south divide. outside england you have scotland/england and wales. and of course the biggest divide, london and the rest.
PAR 09:02 GMT October 2, 2014
Draghi
Reply
Contrary to Yellen , Draghi like to surprise the markets .
GVI Forex john 08:59 GMT October 2, 2014
Current Conditions: RISK-OFF
Reply
Markets have appear to remain in a RISK-OFF
posture. I see prime bond yields are higher today, perhaps because they
overshot yesterday on the downside as equities
sold-off I will be watching U.S. shares again closely today. The
ECB could also impact trade today. The
EURUSD has been trading higher.
- Yields
in prime Eurozone fixed income
markets are mixed to higher after yesterday's sharp declines. The
10-yr
bund is 0.911%, +1.1% bp. Peripheral bond yields are mostly up.
- The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.362% -0.6 bp. BOE Gov
Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015
rate hike.
- U.S.10-yr yield is 2.399%, +1.2bp.The Psychological
focus remains on 2.50%.
- Far East equities were mixed. China was closed for a
holiday. Bourses in
Europe are lower. U.S. shares futures are lower..
The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the
chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
sd sf 08:58 GMT October 2, 2014
Morning
$yen - it has closed the rest @35 .. guess it will redraw range Asian Open tomorrow.
some of the other markets are a step behind it seems though.
GVI Forex john 08:46 GMT October 2, 2014
Construction PMI September 2014
good points, You mentioned that internal/external before. I wonder if the "two economies" can continue to behave so differently?
london red 08:37 GMT October 2, 2014
Construction PMI September 2014
remember john, manuf is a proxy for europe. construction and services are internal. but i expected some weakness. i will hold final assessment when real output figures come. but for now there is no weakness. services is generaaly the strongest sector.
sd sf 08:31 GMT October 2, 2014
Morning
just seeing t/p bids come into $yen @45/6 .. I guess simply due to the quick 40 pt drop swung some of the short term indicators into o-sold.
PAR 08:20 GMT October 2, 2014
FRANCE
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New EU economy commissioner Moscovici assures no preferential treatment for France
"Any country, large or small, if it does not take effective action as required, I will follow the necessary procedures," the former French finance minister assured. Earlier this week it was made known that France will be unable to reach the EU
Moscovici suggested that France needed more time to fix its economy and that the lack of growth prevents it from cutting deficit effectively.
On Wednesday current French finance minister Michel Sapin revealed that the country's deficit was expected to drop below the 3% threshold set by the EU only in 2017. Earlier France pledged to meet the objective in 2015.
PAR 08:18 GMT October 2, 2014
ECB
Reply
Buying ABS is not going to change deflation .
It has no impact, not on oversupply, not on Russian sanctions , not on the weather.
Also despite all his deflation talks, compared to USA , energy is extremely expensive in Europe making production in Europe uncompetitive .
london red 08:10 GMT October 2, 2014
uk
Reply
construction pmi coming up soon. market f/c 63.5 from 64 last. i am a bit more pessimistic. risk is to 16160 on a miss. might be a false break to 16150. but unless really bad pound should gain some support down there given overnight dollar weakness.
PAR 07:42 GMT October 2, 2014
ECB
ECB seems to forget that monetary policy is only a small part of economic policy. There are more important issues in the world than well paid central bankers needing outside advisers for decision making.
PAR 07:36 GMT October 2, 2014
ECB
Reply
More than 2000 employees in a splendid building in Frankfurt . For doing voodoo economics with ABS they need extremely expensive outside advisers Blackrock because none of their own 2000 geniuses understands that market.
I would say like Warren Buffett ,if you do not understand it dont invest in it .
london red 07:30 GMT October 2, 2014
Morning
yen for me 200 hour ma capping while 10850 supports. i may buy 10790 today if seen certainly pre nfp. but if they persist with this dollar profit taking then it might be a case of selling the dollar rally even in event of 250k nfp.
sd sf 07:19 GMT October 2, 2014
Morning
I guess really the whole mkt is waiting to see what $yen does .. if it resists around 109 and runs a further correction down to 108.10-20 then the others can have a further run.
if $yen closes above 109.20 then you can see a lot of buying come through on Asia Open tomorrow... and the others will return to normal.
anyway I try to stay at a distance on the decision making part of it and just let the indicators trade it out.
london red 07:10 GMT October 2, 2014
Morning
aussie. id expected it to pause for breath at 8830-40 but we didnt quite get there. id be confident if the 10 day ma at 8803 is taken. currently we have moved back below a down channel at 8787
sd sf 06:58 GMT October 2, 2014
Morning
OK this is what my book looks like ..
eur bids coming in 18 14 12 - to buy back shorts .. even after the earlier overshoot - didn't have any stops only selling.
gbp - same pattern but bids up to 86 88 89
aud - seeing bids coming in centred around this 80 level - it has its target 88 30-40 above.
yen - most interesting it bought in morning sold some on the small rally stopped some under 70 - started buying above 62 - sold out at 90 and has gone short looking for 108.20
cad - offers coming in @ 12 20 30 looking for 1.1060-64
london red 06:33 GMT October 2, 2014
Is The Death Cross A Sign You Can't Ignore?
if you set the condition selling on the moment of cross then works better for fx than stock indices which have a natural tendancy to travel higher over time. but even in fx its very late and that creates a problem with stop placement.
for me stop placement is more important than entry.
Haifa ac 06:19 GMT October 2, 2014
Is The Death Cross A Sign You Can't Ignore?
London red---That is NOT the issue. You want to "trade" the cross . I want to know if this is a reliable indicator across markets, market conditions and time frames
If it is a realiable indicator--then I want to use it. If not-- I will ignore.
(Ed Seykota tells in "Market Wizards" how he made millions with Donchian 5 X 25 ma crossing---and Seykota is one of the smartest traders around)
london red 06:10 GMT October 2, 2014
Is The Death Cross A Sign You Can't Ignore?
fwiw, usually around the time of such cross, market retraces. these crosses are priced in in advance. it often pays to wait for the retracement if wanting to trade such crosses.
Haifa ac 05:51 GMT October 2, 2014
Is The Death Cross A Sign You Can't Ignore?
Syd---thank you for the link
Do you happen to know other links that have studied the historical reliability of the 50 X 200 cross --across various indexes , instruments? across different market conditions?
Across various time frames?
TIA
Hong Kong AceTrader 05:26 GMT October 2, 2014
AceTrader Oct 2: Intra-Day News & Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
02 Oct 2014
GBP/USD - ...... Cable swung wildly in Wednesday's session as despite falling to a fresh 2-week low of 1.6161 after release of downbeat U.K. mfg PMI in European morning, short-covering together with broad-based selling in greenback after downbeat U.S. data lifted price to 1.6252 in NY before retreating to 1.6173 on renewed cross-selling in sterling.
Later, price edged higher after NY closing and recovered to 1.6199 in Aust. and 1.6206 in Asian morning.
The overnight rebound after holding above yesterday's low of 1.6161 suggests range trading is likely until European open, however, investors should pay attention to the release of U.K. Markit construction PMI at 08:30GMT.
In addition, investors should also closely watch the intra-day move of eur/gbp cross as yesterday's recovery after failing to penetrate Tuesday's 2-year low at 0.8766 may triggered broad-based short covering and pressure price here later in the day.
Bids are noted at 1.6185/80 and around 1.6170 with mixture of bids and stops at 1.6150/45 and further out at 1.6130.
On the upside, offers are placed at 1.6220-30 and then 1.6240/45 with stops emerging just above 1.6260.
Data to be released on Thursday:
China market holiday, Australia new home sales, exports, imports, trade balance, UK construction PMI, EU producer prices, ECB rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, ISM New-York index, durable goods and factory orders.
nw kw 04:44 GMT October 2, 2014
Morning
lumber strong so 1 long s&p 1942, for now?
nw kw 04:12 GMT October 2, 2014
Morning
for now xaueur potionsd in 60m chart lower than xaugbp so monitoring eur/gbp strength
nw kw 04:08 GMT October 2, 2014
Morning
bond moving will it move jpy but looking at bund trend for ecb
GVI Forec 01:33 GMT October 2, 2014
Australia
Reply
MNI: AUSTRALIA AUG TRADE BALANCE -A$787M; MNI MEDIAN -A$700M
MNI: AUSTRALIA AUG BLDG APPROVALS +3.0% M/M; MNI MEDIAN +0.5%
sd sf 00:49 GMT October 2, 2014
Morning
stayed within what you would expect from an Asian Range so far :
we have AUD data in 40 minutes
and bit later RBA Annual Report .. so maybe some movement prior to London coming in.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:17 GMT October 2, 2014
Create Your Own Pivot Point System
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dc CB 00:03 GMT October 2, 2014
Ebola in the USA
Latest "news": after looking a flight records, it seems that Ebola Man "may have" flown thru Washington DC, Dulles airport, on the way to Dallas.
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