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Forex Forum Archive for 10/03/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 21:55 GMT October 3, 2014
A Simple Trading System Anyone Can Use
Reply   

If you are looking for a simple to use standalone system or one you can incorporate into your trading approach, click on the link below

A Simple Trading System Anyone Can Use

GVI Forex john 20:20 GMT October 3, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Mtl JP 20:16 GMT October 3, 2014
Ebola in the USA

Ebola: How it spreads - according to washingtonpost

it is not this it is not that... one could almost think it is as safe as city tap water ... if not for the 160,000 hazmat suits, goggles , rubberboots and gloves

GVI Forex john 19:53 GMT October 3, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report
Reply   

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP



Net EUR JPY COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details









Click on chart for COT Details




Livingston nh 18:50 GMT October 3, 2014
Hong Kong

I use the SGD as a guide (like an Asia CHF) - USD/SGD has come back to Taper Tantrum levels of Summer 2013 BUT if HK blows up Singapore should be a logical beneficiary of relocation

HK ain't Cairo and China ain't Egypt -- it ain't Spring

Livingston nh 18:44 GMT October 3, 2014
Hong Kong

It's the middle of the night over there -what are they doing??

GVI Forex john 18:30 GMT October 3, 2014
Hong Kong
Reply   
reports police have raised the Red Flag, which reported is a warning force in about to be used.

Livingston nh 18:24 GMT October 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EUR/USD will just keep breaking whatever levels below as the reality that the ECB is not "independent" (anymore than any other CB) - Draghi had the chance to off the German influence but couldn't (ONE vote? concern) so he failed the put up or shut up test // Stark had a scathing article about the German/ ECB conflict on Weds - Draghi folded - Draghi probably resigns if his body language is any indication

1.25 is a number not a barrier

Livingston nh 18:09 GMT October 3, 2014
STOX

The enablers have bought the long end (30 yr is up and yield down as curve flattens) -- this Employment report was as positive as last month's was negative - the Fed stopped labor market concerns last March but now cling to inflation as justification for ZIRP // STOX have been encouraged by the treasury bounce in the long end -- bonds still have the whip hand

GVI Forex Blog 18:06 GMT October 3, 2014 Reply   
October 6, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, October 6. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU/NZ: Clocks Spring Forward, CN- Holiday, DE- Factory Orders, CA- Ivey PM

GVI Forex Data Outlook for Cctober 6, 2014

GVI Forex john 18:04 GMT October 3, 2014
CALENDAR: Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


October 6, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, October 6. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU/NZ: Clocks Spring Forward, CN- Holiday, DE- Factory Orders, CA- Ivey PM


  • AU/NZ: Clocks Spring Forward
  • Far East: CN- Holiday
  • Europe: DE- Factory Orders, EZ- Retail Sales
  • North America: CA- Ivey PMI


london red 17:17 GMT October 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

thats because the same guy with the barrier is reloading on each blip. so the blips get lower and lower. luckily for him treasuries flipped taking the edge off the dollar and thats what probably saved him for now.

GVI Forex john 17:01 GMT October 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

What surprised me is that there was not much of a bounce after 1.2500 held. We hit bottom with a dull thud.

GVI Forex john 16:57 GMT October 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Red I missed that. Thanks for passing it on.

london red 16:50 GMT October 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

there is a barrier john at 125 i mentioned it earlier.

GVI Forex john 16:49 GMT October 3, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

The September U.S. Employment Report was considerably better than expected and has given the USD a boost. The EURUSD was testing the 1.2500 line.  Markets are ending the week igenerally in a RISK-ON posture following the report.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher.. The 10-yr bund is 0.936%,  +1.8% bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.393% +5.0 bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.468%, +3.2bp.The Psychological focus remains on 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed higher as China returned form holidays... Bourses in Europe are mostly up. U.S. shares are up..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:42 GMT October 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

1.2660-90 yesterday.... that's one reason the bottom gave way today

Mtl JP 16:35 GMT October 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

when / where do u think the shorts covered ?

GVI Forex john 16:21 GMT October 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

I wonder if there was someone protecting the 1.2500 line earlier. I did not post it at the time but a bank trader told me that there was someone "taking all the EUR the market would give" at that level. Price action suggests that not many are short down here into the weekend.

Mtl JP 16:19 GMT October 3, 2014
Week Ahead

Patient With Ebola-Like Symptoms Being Treated at Howard University Hospital in D.C. - nbcwashington

HK [email protected] 16:17 GMT October 3, 2014
SCHOLARISM
Reply   

From Webster dictionary.
indicates a fast mover: this word increased significantly in lookups over the past seven days.

Probably a nice wrapping for Generic names like: Democracy, Political Freedom, equality etc.

Good a reason to suspect a young demagogue is in the making behind it.

dc CB 16:15 GMT October 3, 2014
Compassion jobs for senior citizen

"Of course, because the LMCI is a staff research product and not an official statistical release, it is subject to delay, revision, or methodological changes without advance notice............
Going forward, users of the LMCI should take note that the entire history of the LMCI may revise each month. "

london red 15:58 GMT October 3, 2014
Compassion jobs for senior citizen

thx JP.

HK [email protected] 15:56 GMT October 3, 2014
HK: The comeback of the Senior Citizens
Reply   


Today in Mong Kok, blows were traded between aged citizens, who's business was affected by the demonstrations, and the young demonstrators. Tomorrow some more may be beaten. People have to know the principle of the China/HK system: Political freedom is traded against Laissez-faire in business. Indeed no one of those crude business people is interested in that Scholarism(tutorial needed) the young people are toying with.

Mtl JP 15:53 GMT October 3, 2014
Compassion jobs for senior citizen

Updating the Labor Market Conditions Index - Fed Notes

"Starting this Monday, October 6th, we will provide updated estimates of the LMCI every month."

GVI Forex Blog 15:53 GMT October 3, 2014
Week Ahead
Reply   
•MPC meets amid signs of fading momentum

•German and UK industrial production forecast to have contracted in August

•FOMC minutes watched for hints on forward guidance

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - MPC MEETS AGAINST UNCERTAIN GLOBAL BACKGROUND

london red 15:48 GMT October 3, 2014
Compassion jobs for senior citizen

yes JP, saw something about that on the wires. monday release is it?

Mtl JP 15:46 GMT October 3, 2014
Compassion jobs for senior citizen

nothing the Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index - a new 19 labor market indicators measure derivative - can't swimmingly handle

london red 15:44 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

euro.tests 50 minute ma for first time since breaking higher. barrier at risk if under.

HK [email protected] 15:40 GMT October 3, 2014
Compassion jobs for senior citizen
Reply   


dc CB 15:34 GMT


230K September Jobs Added In 55-69 Age Group; 10K Lost In Prime, 25-54 Group

HK [email protected] 15:35 GMT October 3, 2014
What kind of jobs if...



At a certain point, markets will discount the facts and react, so one has to watch for it. Price of gold is a good indicator of the incapacity of the consumer to buy the supply. Probably those jobs are permanently added low paid jobs. Tech. Gold may continue down to 1155/65 NZD 0.75 Aud 0.81

dc CB 15:34 GMT October 3, 2014
What kind of jobs if...

don't expect any of this to be mentioned on any financial entertainment outlets: it would spoil the party of today's "surging" jobs day. ZeroHedge

230K September Jobs Added In 55-69 Age Group; 10K Lost In Prime, 25-54 Group

london red 15:34 GMT October 3, 2014
Global Markets News

10yr fut at 50% of predata to low move. 12507.

SaaR KaL 15:31 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

anyone long Gold?

london red 15:27 GMT October 3, 2014
What kind of jobs if...

its what they choose to believe HK and their policy is tailored to that so why fight it. the ecb sees no inflation in europe. but people are paying more for everyday products. so what if yachts and sports cars are 1% cheaper than a year ago. but again why fight it if thats what they are persuing.

HK [email protected] 15:24 GMT October 3, 2014
What kind of jobs if...
Reply   


Business situation currently is so bad, and people have limited amounts for spending, where even rich people are holding to their money or even borrowing. All that boom in the US labor market, seems to me too sh!tty.

london red 15:21 GMT October 3, 2014
USD/JPY

yen. support 60. must hold to maintain intraday up trend otherwise its 200 hour ma and with that comes full reversal risk.

SaaR KaL 15:19 GMT October 3, 2014
USD/JPY

Red/
I know longer term bullish
was talking about a correction
I have this 105 pivot over next 5 months
So say about + / - 5 Big figures
I am not sure about this 110.5... maybe about 80% Certain that will correct south...could a start of a correction

GVI Forex Blog 15:13 GMT October 3, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The global equity bounce-back began midway through yesterday's US session, continued through the Asia and European sessions on Friday, and has been buoyed by this morning's September jobs report

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: September Jobs Report Buoys Global Equity Rally

HK [email protected] 15:12 GMT October 3, 2014
HK [email protected] 16:54 GMT December 12, 2013



That was for AUD/USD

HK [email protected] 15:10 GMT October 3, 2014
HK [email protected] 16:54 GMT December 12, 2013
Reply   


Possible target around 0.81 .


Chart at:

http://www.global-view.com/forums/chart.php?f=1&id=1014701

london red 15:10 GMT October 3, 2014
USD/JPY

up there and its going higher kal. if you want to short its this candle with stop over 110.15 or abv candle if playing intraday pips. v often a strong market will retrace at highest point of 10 period ma which for this hourly yen was 109.85.
10yr 38.2 at 125.02. we 124.97

SaaR KaL 15:09 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

Will short again cable above
1.6213

EURUSD above 1.2600

USDCHF Longs below
0.9574

In general will long AUDUSD Below
0.8670
Near 0.85 or lower would be nice

SaaR KaL 15:02 GMT October 3, 2014
USD/JPY

Red
Will short it around 110.4 to 111

london red 15:02 GMT October 3, 2014
USD/JPY

there call isnt important yours is. thats what you win or lose by.
now lets have another run at that 125 barrier.

Mtl JP 15:00 GMT October 3, 2014
US Jobs - Good News

some headlines bout NFP
This may well be the Goldilocks jobs report — for the market
For U.S. jobs, hiring nears ‘tipping point’
A ‘really really solid’ jobs report and other economist reactions

Paris ib 14:52 GMT October 3, 2014
USD/JPY

I'm not saying they don't. I just wonder what their long term call is at this point. Or if they even have one.

PAR 14:51 GMT October 3, 2014
US Jobs - Good News
Reply   
FXStreet (Łódź) - BNP Paribas economist Alexandra Estiot observes that event though today's US NFP gains were substantial, the sectors in which the biggest increase was seen are also the ones that do not pay much.

Key quotes

"Over the month, non-farm payrolls gained 248kwith July and August data revised upwards to 243k and 183k, respectively. In a normal situation that would be healthy reading."

"In the current one, it remains very far from what would be needed to close the slack."

"As for the 'quality' of jobs created, most positions were added in low-pay sectors, as leisure and hospitality (USD13.98 per hour), trade and transport (USD21.44per hour)."

"Still, this report also brings good news. Our view is that the main one is in the acceleration of hiring in the business services industry."

"This sector added 81k positions in September while it represents the bulk of the July and August upward revision."

"Another good news come from the State and local governments, which added 14k positions, mostly in education."

london red 14:45 GMT October 3, 2014
USD/JPY

what actually happened was they released one report comparing quarters and calling a small top then the next day got cocky and called it much lower i think with 100 as a possibility. tbh i dont think it was an outright call the second note. there observations do/did have merit.

Paris ib 14:38 GMT October 3, 2014
USD/JPY

red... so you think Citibank are still bearish USD/JPY and could still be right? I'm agnostic till I see the close today. Still looking for a scenario where the sell off on U.S. bonds (again today) takes its toll on stocks and the USD/JPY. But not rushing because this is a big turn if it happens and nothing turns on a dime like that.

london red 14:35 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

50 minute ma has capped downtrend all afternoon.

SaaR KaL 14:34 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

eurusd easily could go back to 1.2620 from here

london red 14:34 GMT October 3, 2014
USD/JPY

yen. 109.85 was highest point of 10 hour ma since high. i have taken some off here.

Paris ib 14:31 GMT October 3, 2014
STOX

A stronger USD and higher bond yields will kill off the stock market rally.... eventually. But the performance of stocks this week - with all that panic selling - means we have quite a lot of upside retracement to go (at least in European stock markets) so fading stocks might be premature.

london red 14:31 GMT October 3, 2014
USD/JPY

give them credit, they caught the high from the day before. 2 figs isnt bad. and to be honest pair that time rallied to within 8 pips of high after a few days before crashing multiple figures. until they are beat technically, they can still be right.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:29 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

JP, then look at it later. I passed on some keen insights on trading retracements and corrections in the report. Do as you wish. I can only lead a horse to water...

Livingston nh 14:28 GMT October 3, 2014
STOX
Reply   
No sooner than SPX filled the last Aug gap yesterday we have today a new one 1945 - getting some help from long end treasury yields now - so fading the stox rally to see how the bonds treat this good news

Paris ib 14:24 GMT October 3, 2014
USD/JPY
Reply   
Citibank's outside week down is not going to happen. A close above 110 would give us an outside week UP. Can't wait for their next FX note.

london red 14:18 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

agree reading done at night when market quiet. read all days notes/reports/ideas and get levels ready for next days for moves of a couple of figs either side of current. worse mistakes i made were entering trades and then look at charts for reasons to back them up. you want to have levels written down and either hit them immediately or place gtc orders beforehand if time doesnt allow.

Mtl JP 14:13 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

Jay 14:04 not sure reading some "20 Simple Strategies Anyone Can Use in Everyday Trading" particularly in the middle of a Friday morning NY session is a realistic suggestion
Decision to even trade on Friday, let alone on an NFP Friday , could probably lead to a heated pro-/con debate.

london red 14:11 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

watch 10yr futs here 124.87/84.
euro fib at 12502. below there is barrier at 125. close below 12502 targets 1.2376

GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT October 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ISM Services PMI September 2014

ISM Services PMI. Both Services PMIs correct lower from robust levels.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:04 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

There is a difference between fading a retracement vs. fading a counter trend move.

I suggest reading the section on trading counter trend moves in my

20 Simple Strategies Anyone Can Use in Everyday Trading

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT October 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. ISM Services PMI September 2014
Reply   



ALERT
58.6 vs. 58.5 exp. vs. 59.6 prev.
Employment sub-component
58.5 vs. 57.1 prev.


RELEASE: ISM Services PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 13:55 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

Jay- True. Today illustrates the risks of the counter trend trade. Its ok to try to play a counter trend move but when you do do so you have to be decisive and light on your feet. When you hang onto a counter trend trade,the market may NEVER come back to you.

Plovdiv Gotin 13:46 GMT October 3, 2014
eurusd

1st barrier in front of 1.2495 hold for now.

PAR 13:46 GMT October 3, 2014
EURO
Reply   
Going for stops below 1.2500 .

Livingston nh 13:45 GMT October 3, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

Service PMI looms large - may put some life in FI if price and employment are strong // gotta shake the FED tree a bit

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT October 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Markit final Services PMI September
Reply   



ALERT
58.9 vs. 58.5 exp. vs. 58.5 (flash)


Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:43 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

History repeats => failed retracement => new EURUSD low => see my daily video

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:43 GMT October 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

A word about pivot points -- stronger side is with the trend and that is why odds favored R3 holding yesterday.

GVI Forex john 13:36 GMT October 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Agree 100%

london red 13:35 GMT October 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

as i said before. when r3 gets busted it gets busted big. all envelope based systems have this drawback if used without stops. ltcm prime example.

GVI Forex john 13:33 GMT October 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

5% day in EURUSD

S3 1.2537 cleanly breached.

That's why we trade with stops! Its not out of the realm of the possible that we COULD revisit that level again, but the best strategy over time has been to take your losses quickly and then look and the markets with a fresh view. Live to trade another day.

SaaR KaL 13:22 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

closed all
eurusd and audusd shorts
USDCAD , USDCHF longs

Now longing gold

want to long EURCAD
1.4362 1.4023
1.4396 1.3989
1.4464 1.3921

tokyo ginko 13:21 GMT October 3, 2014
here come usd reversal

worth the wait...cashing out..

GT all!!

london red 13:11 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

dec 10 yr within 10 ticks of predata. low124.85. now 125.18. if cannot hold predata and goes abv 125.27/30 then 125.60/70 today

Mtl JP 13:10 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day



and a pic of 10-yr note price action

Mtl JP 13:07 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day



I have never seen a gap not close

Brisbane PD 13:06 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

Starting point of the post-news drop was below S1 ( on my chart ),
That made the difference.

Livingston nh 12:59 GMT October 3, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

John - big surprise is hardly any movement in 2yr (0.567) - market enablers for FOMC addicts

GVI Forex john 12:55 GMT October 3, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk



10-yr 2.472% +3.6bp
S&P futures +11

GVI Forex john 12:50 GMT October 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Employment September 2014

Monthly jobs U.S
Employment data strong.





Click on chart for more than 10-yr history

Mtl JP 12:50 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

below 1.25 lies 3 StdD 1.2487 support

PAR 12:47 GMT October 3, 2014
China devaluation
Reply   
China may devalue uts currency as its economy is slowing and other asian currencies depreciated a lot .

Mtl JP 12:46 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

1.25 .... feel the magnet ?

GVI Forex john 12:44 GMT October 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. (USD bn) & Canada (CAD bn) Trade August 2014


U.S. Trade Deficit about.

Mtl JP 12:40 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

amazed by S3 ?

london red 12:39 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

earnings soft. highs/lows should now be in. so moves within options forecasts

GVI Forex john 12:37 GMT October 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. (USD bn) & Canada (CAD bn) Trade August 2014
Reply   



ALERT
-40.11 vs. -41.0 exp. vs. -40.5 (-40.32)prev.
Canada Trade C$ bln
-610 vs. +1.50 exp. vs. +2.58 prev.

U.S. Balance on Goods and Services

Canadian Trade Balance


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:33 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

S3 = 1.2537

Stronger than expected # but wages were flat

Aug-Sept avg 214K

GVI Forex john 12:33 GMT October 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Employment September 2014
Reply   



ALERT
NFP Jobs: +248k vs. +213K exp. vs. +142K (r 180k) prev.
Rate: 5.90% vs. 6.10% exp. vs. 6.10% prev.


BLS: Employment Situation Summary


TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 12:22 GMT October 3, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

10 yr futures 125.7 and 124.87 (current 125.27) are possible stumbling points were market can flip if it chooses to.

GVI Forex john 12:15 GMT October 3, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

10-YR 2.445% +0.9%

Mtl JP 12:13 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

put on a helmet and buckle up your 3-point seatbelt if the number comes in anywhere around 100K

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:12 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

Thanks red.

It seems 200-225K will be the harder outcome to handicap.

Also watch wages. 0.2% expecte

Mtl JP 12:09 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

Jay are u flat ahead of NFP waiting to fade a possible "wrong" reaction to an above 200K print ?

Last print came in at 142K that not one "expert" had forecast and some pundits in boobtube squarely refused to believe.

Experts' estimates range from 155k to 265k for this release.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:00 GMT October 3, 2014
US Unemployment

Over the past three years, the revisions to the first employment print in August have averaged +42K. These are by far the largest revisions done to any other month of the year, and are almost twice the absolute average of 18.9K in revisions over this same period. (from a bank report)

Mtl JP 11:59 GMT October 3, 2014
Global Markets News

shadow from the past former Fed chairman Greenspan said: "The major concern is once you get the basic interest-rate movement in place, it takes on a life of its own." - in an interview on CNBC Friday morning
-
I remember 18% interest was a nice amount to collect and reverse feeling of having to pay it.

london red 11:55 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

its been a dollar down week on the whole, so im watching the reaction after the reaction in case of a good number if that makes any sense.
250k yen 10940/50 within a minute euro 12580. its the next move that will count.
150k yen 108.50. but if cant move below 10837 will reverse and end up abv 109. euro 12650 but again would need to get thru 12670 to rule out risk of flip to lows.
because we counter trended this week, the decision you need to make is whether we are done or whether it has some way to go still. it could be a case of riding the wave or taking a quick profit and flipping. we shall see whats in store soon.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:44 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

How about some FX reactions to NFP scenarios?

>250K ?
225-250K?
200K-225K?
sub-200K

Watch for revisions.

PAR 11:39 GMT October 3, 2014
US Unemployment
Reply   
Before US elections unemployment figures are usually very good. Jack Welsh even thinks they get manipulated.

Still I cannot get that supertechnological America, in the year 2014 with all the big data technology around is not able to come up with a single correct unemployment figure .

A everybody knows surveys have a big margin of error and are fairly easy to manipulate .

london red 11:39 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day

euro. support at 12610/14 and 12580. these levels must be beaten today or market will likely tak advantage of weekly candle building a low and so target 127+ today. it is vital to take these levels out for bears. today.
watch market reaction to number. watch the initial spike for any retracement. if retraces past predata levels its likely market will run to other side and quickly.
on good nfp yen will spike up thru 200 hour ma (109.09). this level would need to be held in order to test 109.86 later today otherwise its highly likely it will test yesterdays low. its the hourly close we are looking at so market has hour an hour to set a bull/bear trap. if dollar pullback is to be registered on a weekly close, a bull trap will be set even on a good number. similarly on a poor number if dollar can fall and retraces past its pre data level, you are likely to see fresh highs vs euro today and towards 110 for yen.

GVI Forex 11:37 GMT October 3, 2014
Preview: US Jobs Report
Reply   
Friday 3 October 2014

Today�s primary focus will be the September US labour market report. Following August�s smaller-than-expected payroll gain, a number of Fed officials have noted signs of a slowing in employment growth. Indeed, the August outturn was a factor in persuading the Fed to keep its forward guidance language unchanged at its recent policy meeting. Given this, the September payroll report takes on particular importance. Another outturn below the year-to-date average of 215k is likely to reinforce the arguments of the doves on the Committee, while a jump back above 200k would likely prompt speculation about a change to the �guidance� at the late October FOMC meeting. Other labour indicators are broadly consistent with stronger employment growth than in August. We expect a gain of 225k and an upward revision to August. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, is predicted to drop to 6.0%, although earnings growth is likely to remain very subdued.


Lloyds Bank

GVI Forex john 11:22 GMT October 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

See Chart Point tables for complete data.




GVI Forex john 11:15 GMT October 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


Selected daily USD & EUR Pivots. Complete Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:09 GMT October 3, 2014
FX Trade of the Day
Reply   
Forex Trade of the Day + FX Chart of the Day

Will history repeat with a new EURUSD low after a failed retracement?

GVI Forex Blog 10:39 GMT October 3, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The USD is generally strong headed into the Sep US Non-Farm payroll data later today. Mixed-to-

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: European equities rebound slightly, peripheral yields remain near record lows as traders assess Draghi's comments; US payrolls data in focus

Tallinn viies 10:27 GMT October 3, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
previous day low is taken out. so now 1,2495 possible today if NFP above 250k. should rethink if euro able to move over 1,2660.

Hong Kong AceTrader 10:14 GMT October 3, 2014
AceTrader Oct 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

03 Oct 2014 10:00GMT

GBP/USD - ..... The British pound tumbles in European trading after weaker-than-expected Y.K. services PMI. Sep reading hit a 3-month low of 58.7 vs street forecast of 59.1.
Intra-day decline accelerated after stops below Thursday's 1.6112 low were tripped, price has hit intra-day low of 1.6065 at European mid day, the lack of a bounce suggests sterling bears are looking for a re-test of September's 9-1/2 month trough at 1.6052, there is market chatter of fairly large stops building below there, so a break of this lvl may see another 15-20 points decline.

Offers have been lowered to 1.6080/90 and more above with some stops touted above 1.6110, therefore, selling sterling across the board ahead of U.S. jobs data is the way to go.

Reuters reported earlier that Makit/CIPS showed U.K. Service PMI falls to three-month low of 58.7 in September from Aug's 60.5. Markit chief economist Chris Williamson said PMI suggested Q3 GDP +0.8%, only a shade lower than the 0.9% achieved in the Q2, however, risk is seen for a slowdown in Q4.

Cable briefly bounced to 1.6105 after the data but swiftly tanked to a fresh session low at 1.6079, near September's 9-1/2 month trough at 1.6052.

SaaR KaL 10:06 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

if gold starts a rally into next week
this could mean 1400 is next

GVI Forex Blog 09:56 GMT October 3, 2014
September U.S. Jobs Seen Solid. Service PMIs Mostly Soft
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Employment, Service PMIs

The September U.S jobs report is due. ADP Private Payroll data showed a gain of +213K in August vs. +202K in July. The forecast had no impact on street expectations for a gain in non-farm payrolls of about that amount. Eurozone final Service PMIs were mixed, but on balance they were weaker than forecast.

September U.S. Jobs Seen Solid. Service PMIs Mostly Soft

SaaR KaL 09:53 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

Really?

GVI Forex john 09:38 GMT October 3, 2014
Bernanke

Just a case where Ben is saying "he feels our pain". It tough all over. lol

PAR 09:17 GMT October 3, 2014
Bernanke
Reply   
Bernanke cannot refinance his house . This must be a joke.
Write a book , take a job at Goldman ,give some speeches.
No need to refinance . His house is not going to be repossesed. Again this show that central bankers dont understand the real world .

GVI Forex john 09:15 GMT October 3, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Reply   
Early in Europe  markets are in a mixed Risk posture heading into U.S. September employment data and the weekend. U.S. NFP are seen gaining in excess of 200K in the month. The EURUSD is currently holding above the psychological 1.2600 line.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher.. The 10-yr bund is 0.930%,  +1.2% bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed to higher.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.350% +0.7 bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.439%, +0.3bp.The Psychological focus remains on 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed higher as China returned form holidays... Bourses in Europe are mixed. U.S. shares futures are higher..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex john 09:02 GMT October 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Eurozone Retail Sales August 2014

EZ data unexpectedly strong.

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT October 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Eurozone Retail Sales August 2014
Reply   




ALERT
mm: 1.20% vs +0.10% exp. vs. -0.40% (r ) prev.
yy: +1.90% vs. +0.70% exp. vs. +0.80% (r +0.50%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Amman wfakhoury 08:54 GMT October 3, 2014
GBPUSD 16074 confirmed

Read the rest of signal ..up unless 1 hr closed below 1206.90

SaaR KaL 08:50 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

Gold Level
1,226 1,193
IMO there is a reversal of tide

SaaR KaL 08:48 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

I doubt Cable goes lower then day's low

Central Kwun 08:45 GMT October 3, 2014
GBPUSD 16074 confirmed

Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

so you prefer buy gold at this level? no kidding, today all predict NFP is good data

Amman wfakhoury 08:43 GMT October 3, 2014
GBPUSD 16074 confirmed

Last confirmed in Gold 1206.90. this alreday reached.
now it is going up unless 1 hr bar closed below 1206.90

london red 08:42 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

john fyi 2 and a half yards of 1.27 at the cut today.

SaaR KaL 08:41 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

AUDUSD dangerous level
is 0.8500 area
there could be a big reversal folks
Do not think linear after dat

london red 08:40 GMT October 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: GB Final Services PMI SEPTEMBER 2014

eurgbp res 7875/85. unbreachable pre nfp id say. euro support at 12615. would be surprised to see it go before nfp. cable hourly close below 16084 will strongly suggest breakdown. 16084 is alo 100 week ma. if they close hour at or abv its timeout/slight upside til nfp.

GVI Forex john 08:34 GMT October 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: GB Final Services PMI SEPTEMBER 2014

U.K. September Services PMI weaker than expected, but still at a high level.

GVI Forex john 08:30 GMT October 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: GB Final Services PMI SEPTEMBER 2014
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

58.7 vs. 58.5 exp. vs. 59.1 prev.


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Central Kwun 08:26 GMT October 3, 2014
GBPUSD 16074 confirmed

Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Wfakhoury Sir, long time no see, how are you? may i know your view on Gold for today?

SaaR KaL 08:25 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

this USDJPY 110.5 is so dangerous folks
Seems it is in a mode for a drop

Amman wfakhoury 08:07 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

Do you think market will follow your thinking.

Amman wfakhoury 08:03 GMT October 3, 2014
GBPUSD 16074 confirmed
Reply   
16074 confirmed will be reached and may be more , return 16111 .


The only one in the world who confirms the next level


SaaR KaL 08:03 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

eurjpy shorts is at will i think
136.2 tgt seem ok

GVI Forex john 08:03 GMT October 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: EZ Final Services PMI September 2014

EZ, Germany and France final Services PMIs mixed Germany revised up, France and EZ down.

GVI Forex john 08:00 GMT October 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: EZ Final Services PMI September 2014
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
Service PMI's
EZ: 52.4 vs. 52.8 exp. vs. 52.8 (flash)
France: 48.4 vs. 49.4 exp. vs. 49.4 (flash)
Germany: 55.7 vs. 56.6 exp. vs. 56.6 (flash)



Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

SaaR KaL 07:53 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

USDCAD Longs
1.1378 1.1197
1.1424 1.1152
1.1469 1.1107


Red/
Yes..placed order to short...Now flat cable

1.6172 1.6044
1.6204 1.6012
1.6236 1.5980

Better short EURUSD then Cable around here

london red 07:49 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades

cable support 16084. servs pmi due in 40 mins. poor number sees recent low 16050 tested. a better see no higher than 16163

SaaR KaL 07:37 GMT October 3, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Closing Gold short here
I might even buy some
1,202.1
1,198.1
tgt 1220

Central Kwun 06:29 GMT October 3, 2014
PPT

Sell Gold
Entry: 1213 Target: Stop:

right, this is the 2nd time for this week that DOW dropped more than 100pts at the beginning and V-shape rebound before closing. crazy, manipulated again?

london red 06:29 GMT October 3, 2014
yen
Reply   
asian buying sees it rally close to the 200 hour ma at 109.08 with further res at 109.13, which i dont see it crossing pre nfp. 50 hour crossed down thru falling 200 hour, so technically its a sell on a return to the 200 hour, but the nfp may result in a brief move much higher, hence i prefer to sell blips pre nfp and flat into it here. after nfp, if good, i see 109.86 possibly before a close under 109, if we are to see further correction. a poor nfp is almost certain to see us test the 107.90 fib again and what happens there will decide the next leg in such a case.

PAR 06:28 GMT October 3, 2014
China devaluation
Reply   
With USDJPY close to 110.00 risks of a devaluation of the remimbi are increasing . Especially with the explosive situation in Hong Kong and the collaps of the Rubble and the Brazilean Real .

PAR 06:22 GMT October 3, 2014
PPT
Reply   
PPT did excellent job in NY afternoon and overnight . Elections are looming in America ?

Syd 05:28 GMT October 3, 2014
Australian Dollar Looks to U.S. Payrolls and RBA Hawks
Reply   
SYDNEY--The Australian dollar held its ground Friday in a sleepy session ahead of the release of U.S. employment data later today.

With global markets shaken this week amid fresh doubts about the strength of the global economy, the non-farm payrolls data for September have taken on heightened significance.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate the economy added 215,000 jobs last month, up from the 142,000 created in August. The jobless rate is expected to hold steady at 6.1%.

Any disappointment could sees the U.S. dollar retrace some of recent strong rally against most currencies as traders mark down the prospects of higher interest rates in the U.S. in the near term.

"The Asian session had all of the hallmarks of pre-payrolls malaise," said Sue Trinh, currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

At 0500 GMT, the Australian dollar changed hands at US$0.8792, compared with US$0.8788 late Thursday.

Looking into next week, a policy meeting at the central bank will take center stage. Some economists are expecting a more hawkish message to emerge from the policy-setting board, reflecting the Australian dollar's sharp decline in the last month.

While a steady rate verdict is a virtual certainty, there are likely to be some more significant changes in the statement than seen for some time, said Su-lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Market, based in Sydney.

"The possible changes will likely be mixed but may, on balance, be slightly hawkish, reflecting some new discussion around the currency," she added.

The Australian dollar has fallen by 6% since the last board meeting, which would be welcome news for the central bank, said Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC, Australia.

With the risk of a housing bubble rising due to very low mortgage rates, Bloxham said he expects the central bank will need to hike earlier than markets expect.

"We expect the RBA to be on hold next week although the language in the statement is likely to be less dovish, given the lower Australian dollar and housing market boom," Mr. Bloxham said.

GVI Forex Blog 04:37 GMT October 3, 2014 Reply   
(CN) CHINA SEPT NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 54.0 (8-month low) V 54.4 PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN SEPT MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 52.5 V 49.9 PRIOR (highest reading since Oct 2013) - (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG HIA NEW HOME SALES

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Hang Seng reopens at 4-month lows; China non-manufacturing PMI slides to 8-month lows - Source TradeTheNews.com

Syd 03:13 GMT October 3, 2014
Australian New Home Sales Rise 3.3% In August Vs July -HIA
Reply   
SYDNEY--Australian new-home sales rose strongly in August with a surge in apartment sales driving the increase.

Sales of new homes rose 3.3% from July, according to the Housing Industry Association, an umbrella group for construction firms. The result was driven primarily by a strong lift in the volatile apartments sector, where sales increased by 19.8%, it said.

Despite the rise, HIA economist Diwa Hopkins said the peak in new-home sales likely occurred earlier in the year. "We still hold the view that new home sales reached their peak for the cycle back in April this year," she said.

Robust levels of new housing construction are needed to support the economy over coming years as a mining-investment downturn becomes more pronounced. Strong population growth, a surge in investor demand for property, and record-low interest rates are fueling strong demand for housing.

"It is important for the new home building sector and the broader domestic economy that we continue to see evidence of historically high levels of building approvals and new home sales throughout 2014 and into next year," Ms. Hopkins said.

Syd 03:09 GMT October 3, 2014
US Dollar To Correct?
Reply   
The Chartist suggests after a solid run up for the US dollar index, a short term correction should be anticipated.

USD $$$$

Hong Kong AceTrader 03:01 GMT October 3, 2014
AceTrader Oct 3: Intra-Day News & Views(USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

03 Oct 2014 02:40GMT

USD/JPY -......News from Japan Health Min Shiozaki, He said, quote:
'what's most important in GPIF reform is to safely and efficiently manage public's pension funds;
reforming fund management, governance both important for GPIF.'

Another news from Japan PM Abe, he said, quote:
'its true Apr sales tax hike led to 7.1% contraction in Apr-Jun GDP;
must scrutinize impact of bad summer weather, rising fuel costs on economy, among other factors, in deciding whether to proceed with second sales tax hike.'

Yesterday saw USD/JPY, the pair was the major mover. Price came under renewed selling pressure due to broad-based buying of yen at Tokyo open as previous day sell off in the Dow pressured the Nikkei.
Dlr fell below Wednesday's 108.87 low to 138.55 after N225 index tumbled 420 points n despite a brief recovery to 108.96 at yesterday European open, renewed weakness in the Nikkei futures prompted another wave of broad-based buying in yen, the pair tumbled to session low of 108.32,
However, price pares yesterday intra-day loss as Nikkei futures staged a recovery after having fallen 120 points earlier.

Data to be released on Friday:

China market holiday, non-manufacturing PMI, Australia new home sales, Japan services PMI, Italy services PMI, France services PMI, Germany market holiday, services PMI, EU services PMI, retail sales, UK services PMI, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg. earnings, trade balance, services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Canada imports, exports and trade balance.

Syd 03:00 GMT October 3, 2014
Australia's RBA Likely More Hawkish at Policy Meeting --
Reply   
The policy-making board of Australia's central bank meets for its regular monthly board meeting next Tuesday, October 7, and while a steady rate verdict is a virtual certainty, there are likely to be some more significant changes in the statement than we have seen for some time, says Su-lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Market. The possible changes will likely be mixed but may, on balance, be slightly hawkish, reflecting some new discussion around the currency and housing although this should be tempered by comments on weaker commodity prices, Ong says. "It is probably still too soon to drop the reference to a period of stability, but it cannot be ruled out the longer cash stays unchanged," Ong adds

GVI Forec 01:56 GMT October 3, 2014
China
Reply   
MNI: CHINA SEP CFLP NON-MANUFACTURING PMI 54.0 VS 54.4 IN AUG

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:49 GMT October 3, 2014
How a Forex Trader Makes Money Using Pivot Points (Part 2)


We have been refining our pivot point system and suggest reading this article as it will show you how a forex trader can make money using it.

How a Forex Trader Makes Money Using Pivot Points (Part 2)

GVI Forex Blog 01:47 GMT October 3, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar/yen rebounds modestly as Tokyo shares bounce

* Further upside for dollar seen if jobs data proves firm

FOREX-Dollar rebounds vs yen, U.S. nonfarm payrolls awaited

dc CB 01:22 GMT October 3, 2014
NFP

hard to hold that in your mind for an entire month

take the hi and the low and calculate the Suprise in Nov

Votes R Us

Livingston nh 00:20 GMT October 3, 2014
NFP

CB - 350K and 5% unemployment might be a mixed blessing --

dc CB 00:13 GMT October 3, 2014
NFP

you have to think like a 30 something WH advisor.
There is one more report before the Election.
How to make sure the Senate stays in Demo control.

What # would you want to see in Oct?

Livingston nh 00:05 GMT October 3, 2014
NFP
Reply   
Sept plug factor is usually negative past few years so minus 16 to 25 - gov hiring may have picked up more than expected and everybody and his dog expects AUG payrolls to be revised up by 40k (a small revision would send tremors into Q3 GDP calcs) - 235K is my guess for tomorrow (As retirements increase NFP will become inflated)// Unemployment rate (NSA) has been worrisome over the summer but headline of 5.9% is the guess for tomorrow

dc CB 00:03 GMT October 3, 2014
Truth or Dare



art

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
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C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
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A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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