Forex Forum Archive for 10/04/2014

GVI Forex Blog 22:21 GMT October 4, 2014
Markets to Digest U.S. Jobs on Monday. Quiet Calendar
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HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CN- Holiday, DE- Factory Orders, CA- Ivey PMI

Monday features German Output Data. The September U.S. jobs report was better than street forecasts. It saw equities gain and bond yields rise. Tuesday sees central bank decisions from Australia and Japan. Also U.K. production data are slated.

Markets to Digest U.S. Jobs on Monday. Quiet Calendar

dc CB 20:34 GMT October 4, 2014
Finally, Strong Jobs Data: Outlook- October 5, 2014

just a back of the envelope calculation and not using "da miracle of compound interest"...that fairy tale from the times gone by when we were growing-up.

If a person managed to scrape together a $300K nest egg and were velly velly velly afraid of the STOX Market and being Old school wanted to keep in in a "plain Vanilla" savings account. Since 2009, using that old-timey standard of conservatism - a 5% Passbook bank account,

This person had been Robbed of $75,000. Quite a bit more if you apply " da miracle of compounding".

That fact you will NEVER see in the MS press, or uttered by any politician. The best you will get is that "savers are being punished".

GVI Forex john 17:30 GMT October 4, 2014
Finally, Strong Jobs Data: Outlook- October 5, 2014

ZIRP is a hidden TAX on the consumer to recapitalize the banking system. The revered Paul Volcker used the same strategy in the 1980's.

GVI Forex john 17:03 GMT October 4, 2014
Finally, Strong Jobs Data: Outlook- October 5, 2014

From a personal point of view, I don't see much impact of ZIRP on lending rates, in fact consumer credit via credit cards remains ridiculously high. I do see it on Bank CD rates. A week or so ago I actually saw a large POSTER a a local bank touting a one year CD at 1.01%! Funny, a day or two later it was gone. It was ludicrous to think a 1% CD would be a compelling offer!

I just don't see a lot of Fed ease trickling down to the unwashed masses.

Maybe its time to encourage true competition in the banking industry?

Maybe the Walmart's of the world might have something to offer if they could be given banking licenses?

Maybe they would do no worse than the current megabank oligopoly?

Livingston nh 16:46 GMT October 4, 2014
Finally, Strong Jobs Data: Outlook- October 5, 2014

One point about the average hourly earnings - this is another datum that is being distorted by baby boomer retirements - consider that the older higher paid workforce is retiring and companies gladly replace them with lower paid employees (and less productive as they learn a job) -- this replacement cost savings was a major factor in the early retirement programs of many corporations some years ago (benefits cost and wage savings)

Economists are not as competent as actuaries when dealing with demographic issues

Average earnings are deemed by the FED as important in its quest for inflation - actually it's the median income that is more important and in its quest for jobs the geographic location of NEW jobs is important consideration because it can distort the average wage considerably (see the Sun Belt migration of some years ago)

Labor issue is just an excuse for the ZIRP addicts on FOMC

GVI Forex john 15:19 GMT October 4, 2014
CALENDAR: Weekly Trading Planner
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SATURDAY
AU/NZ Clocks +1hr
MONDAY
CN Holiday
14:00 A CA Ivey PMI  volatile index
TUESDAY
CN Holiday
0:30 A JP Trade Japan is a big exporter
04:30 A AU Australia Reserve Bank no rate change
04:30 A JP Bank of Japan no rate change
07:15 A CH CPI deflatiuon?
17:00 A TRY 3-yr auction
WEDNESDAY
02:00 A CN GDP key indicator
17:00 A TRY 10-yr  auction
18:00 A FRB Fed Minutes lastest decision
THURSDAY
00:50 A JP BOJ Minutes
01:30 A AU Employment major economic metric
11:00 A GB Bank of England no rate change
12:30 A US Initial Claims near frictional lows
17:00 TRY 30-yr
FRIDAY
08:30 A GB Trade key industrial mesure
12:30 A CA Employment key economic metric

GVI Forex john 13:21 GMT October 4, 2014
Finally, Strong Jobs Data: Outlook- October 5, 2014
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Solid September Jobs Data
Friday saw a stronger than expected September employment report. For once, the ADP private jobs Survey predicted a solid report and it was correct. The jobs report was stronger than expected on almost all counts. The only disappointment was average hourly earnings were essentially flat. This suggests that there still is likely little likelihood that the Fed will react immediately to the data, but they could become more cautious about their current dovish stance, Future data of this type could pull forward the time in 2015 when the central bank will start to "normalize" market interest rates.

Finally, Strong Jobs Data: Outlook- October 5, 2014

HK [email protected] 07:47 GMT October 4, 2014
Sectors which added most jobs in the US do not pay much - BNP Paribas
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US ECONOMY IS BOOMING:

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=9b28663b-fcb6-45e7-b259-b38148a2dfbf

nw kw 04:22 GMT October 4, 2014
Full Show: Too Big to Jail?

oil-do you see a trade set up this week? + gdp is up from us oil exports and cad will hike interest rates first from less slack in the labor market so cat will keep feeding us oil so cat pairs can be a trend to look for

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-03/opec-price-war-signaled-by-saudi-move-risks-deeper-drop.html

dc CB 00:27 GMT October 4, 2014
Full Show: Too Big to Jail?
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Moyers 10-3

Full Show: Too Big to Jail?

Moyers with Bill Black