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Forex Forum Archive for 10/06/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 23:42 GMT October 6, 2014
Breaking News: Spreads Matter! Leading Forex Broker Lowers Spreads

When I was a bank trader I once quoted a 200 pip bid-offered spread and another bank dealt on it. Retail forex traders do not realize how good they have it as the spreads they are getting are ones that I could only have dreamed about when I worked for a bank or ran a fund. Now, a leading forex broker has made them even tighter by changing its pricing model. In this article I will show why tighter spreads matter and give details on the broker’s new pricing model

Breaking News: Spreads Matter! Leading Forex Broker Lowers Spreads.

Syd 23:23 GMT October 6, 2014
ECB: Did Draghi Put A Floor Under The Euro?
Reply   
implications of last night's ECB policy meeting a press conference commentary.

The Euro?

GVI Forex john 22:34 GMT October 6, 2014
CALENDAR: Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


October 6, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, October 7. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CN- Holiday AU- RBA, JP- Trade, BOJ, DE- Industrial Output, CH- CPI, GB- Ind & Mfg Output


  • Far East: CN- Holiday AU- RBA, JP- Trade, BOJ
  • Europe: DE- Industrial Output, CH- CPI, GB- Ind & Mfg Output
  • North America: US- 3yr Auction, API Energy


GVI Forex john 22:29 GMT October 6, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Note: wide ranges on Monday have produced wide pivot-based Support and Resistance levels (below).

GVI Forex john 22:21 GMT October 6, 2014
CALENDAR: Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   
TUESDAY
CN Holiday
0:30 A JP Trade Japan is a big exporter
04:30 A AU Australia Reserve Bank no rate change
04:30 A JP Bank of Japan no rate change
07:15 A CH CPI deflation?
17:00 A TRY 3-yr auction
WEDNESDAY
02:00 A CN GDP key indicator
17:00 A TRY 10-yr  auction
18:00 A FRB Fed Minutes latest decision
THURSDAY
00:50 A JP BOJ Minutes
01:30 A AU Employment major economic metric
11:00 A GB Bank of England no rate change
12:30 A US Initial Claims near frictional lows
17:00  TRY 30-yr
FRIDAY
08:30 A GB  Trade key industrial measure
12:30 A CA Employment key economic metric


Mtl JP 21:57 GMT October 6, 2014
USD

shorty ago I took on a short euro against 1.2675. for 1.2630 and lower
x fingers

Mtl JP 21:53 GMT October 6, 2014
WSJ calls for Currency Wars
Reply   
Weak Export Growth Raises Prospect of Currency Moves - WSJ
Sluggish Global Trade Growth Is Tempting Officials to Devalue Their Currencies to Jump-Start Economies

Oct. 5, 2014 2:56 p.m. ET
The world’s export engines are sputtering, putting new pressure on many nations to weaken their currencies to jump-start their economies.
--
USD flies in the face of IAN TALLEY's suggestion of how to jump-start an economy.

london red 21:52 GMT October 6, 2014
USD

JP, tomorrow I believe we will extend initially its whether can hold gains throughout the day/into close which will be important. if we do an intraday reversal i expect we will fire a few false breaks beforehand to suck in dollar sellers at the high of the move. so if a reversal is to take place you can be sure of such a setup playing out.
there will come a point in the afternoon where it makes itself clear which way we go and the market will move strongly to that side.
currently overnight options are pricing in a 45 point move on the euro. after a move like today its a bit on the tight side maybe, but i believe that could be about right on the topside tho i would allow for the trendline at 12733 (4h) as a false break thru 127 flash high. i am really not concerned about a possible daily higher high given we got a similar signal higher up and promptly reversed. the problems facing the euro always come to light in the cold light of day and thats why the rebound could break apart at just about any point. but i wouldnt put all eggs in one basket before 12571 taken out. i would want to be short well abv there, but scale in further on the break of that level. but for now i have two trendlines at 12625 and 61.

Mtl JP 21:00 GMT October 6, 2014
USD

red earlier usd strenght was really concentrated against two ccies: euro and yen (of which euro short was about 2x the size of yen short). Judging from last Friday's COTs things got a bit spread out. Today's dlr dump , I agree, is not yet a signal of turn in usd's relative strentgh

london red 20:52 GMT October 6, 2014
USD

not far off but dxy yet to break friday low. the level to watch will be 85.60. the upper channel breakout level. if dollar survives this, we could see a turn around in fortunes by end of week. but fail there and it points to a deeper correction.

GVI Forex john 20:49 GMT October 6, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   
Selected daily USD & EUR Pivots. Complete Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to storein browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System



GVI Forex 20:46 GMT October 6, 2014
USD
Reply   
- Biggest one day drop since January

- 12 weeks up streak is longest in 40 years

Mtl JP 20:41 GMT October 6, 2014
Bit About Counterparty Risk
Reply   
when cost of insurance "sky-rocketed into the uneconomical range"
-
Side Note
When this outfit finally goes poof and turfs its approximately 250,000 salary payroll, Yellen's newly emphasized labour index is likely going to take a licking

SaaR KaL 20:37 GMT October 6, 2014
Day's Trades

will start Buying USDCHF from 0.9547 till 0.9500
TGT 0.9830

SaaR KaL 20:22 GMT October 6, 2014
Day's Trades

Started Cable shorts
will add till 1.6134
TGT < 1.5880
hoping for 1.556 area

Paris ib 20:17 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

GVI Forex john 19:38 GMT 10/06/2014 - My Profile
EURUSD incredibly volatile today

Yes, it went straight up. USD/JPY went stright down. AUD went straight up. Gold went straight up. Basically USD longs got skewered. And the USD bulls are shaken not stirred.

SaaR KaL 20:12 GMT October 6, 2014
Day's Trades

Adding short EURUSD...No Biggy..with every 12 pips above day's high

TGT < 1.2480

SaaR KaL 20:03 GMT October 6, 2014
Ebola in the USA

Play drums at night around a fire ...and Maybe..Just maybe meet Dexter and spouse...(Must Boil before Inviting them in)

GVI Forex john 20:02 GMT October 6, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

ny ny 20:00 GMT October 6, 2014
Day's Trades

Stop parade!!!!!!! Market needs a breather. Guess who was at 1.25 in euro?

SaaR KaL 19:59 GMT October 6, 2014
Ebola in the USA

Maybe moving to Amazon would be a great idea
Get married a woman ridding a zebra, Hunt, Fish (If any left), Have kids and a family..No phones, no Bankers, SOme tax here and there (Other tribes / Animals messing with you...etc)...very natural way

Mtl JP 19:57 GMT October 6, 2014
RISK ON: Trade Fades. Another German Data Miss. Quiet U.S. Calendar

World Bank trims China, East Asia 2014-2016 growth forecasts

the "trims"
East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region to grow 6.9 percent in 2014 and 2015, down from the 7.1 percent rate it had previously forecast for both years. Growth in 2013 had been 7.2 percent.
2016 growth forecast for the region to 6.8 percent from 7.1 percent.
growth in China was likely to slow to 7.4 percent in 2014 and 7.2 percent in 2015, down from 7.7 percent in 2013.
Growth in 2016 was seen at 7.1 percent previously seen at 7.6 percent in 2014 and 7.5 percent in 2015 and 2016.
-
China was supposed to be "the engine that saved" the world not so long ago. "They" just forgot that the China engine is dependent on US consumption of made-in-china teddybears.

Slowing China is not a good omen for Harper's Canada seeing how much he is betting Canadian economic prospects on trade with China.

SaaR KaL 19:54 GMT October 6, 2014
Ebola in the USA

Yep/
Must Boil People before talking to them

london red 19:47 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

john, bear market rallies are the most viscious. we still have to go a long way to do structural long term damage in most dollar pairs. abv 127 we hv higher high in euro so youd look to lvls i posted earlier. just ride it for now. eventually it stops and dollar starts to break resistance levels. thats when to get back in bed with dollar.
tomorrow will be an op in cable. i expect the data to miss, its hard to get excited about manf and indust prodn in the uk. so again the watch will be does the market buy the dip as per euro this morning.

SaaR KaL 19:39 GMT October 6, 2014
Day's Trades

Trading In FX Research in Risk Management
Before taking a position...

Risk Management FX

GVI Forex john 19:38 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

EURUSD incredibly volatile today

Mtl JP 19:34 GMT October 6, 2014
Ebola in the USA

also s/america
reminds me of LTCM which was run (ultimately into the ground) on some formula developed by two Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences "winners"
-
I am starting to think a relatively safe place from ebola on this planet might be on a sailboat, nuclear sub sitting 13 miles deep in some crevice or in a drum full of bleach

london red 19:28 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

nh, loonie has looked heavy all the way up. its been a good trading pair as it always gave you a chance to buy a good pullback. im looking around 11125/30.
for euro i expect to be selling c. 12685/90 with stop a little abv 127. incidentally 10 day ma 12648 today. the average will be of importance tomorrow as well. abv 127 its poss to see 12815 and 12960 but id expect 13020 to stay unbeaten on this rebound. tomorrow is a question of whether euro will hold onto whatever further gains it makes tomorrow morning. as normally on a day like this it will follow through the next day and then either the afternoon sees heavy selling or it supported to rally a further day. tomorrow im looking forward to eurgbp reaction at 7874/80 as well.

SaaR KaL 19:24 GMT October 6, 2014
Ebola in the USA

Maybe Air Strikes for west Africa will be in Fox soon...cause Hamana Gugu is being a terrorist of some sort

SaaR KaL 19:20 GMT October 6, 2014
Ebola in the USA

Interesting World map
that virus wont reach IRAQ, Libya...Many 3rd world or War Zone Countries...
Aussie is not there...Now I Know why AUDUSD is a Major Buy

GVI Forex john 19:13 GMT October 6, 2014
CHART POINTS: Trading Points
Reply   

Pre-Closing...


Mtl JP 19:10 GMT October 6, 2014
Ebola in the USA

High risk Ebola could reach France and UK by end-October, scientists calculate

Reuters oct 5th 2014 / Scientists have used Ebola disease spread patterns and airline traffic data to predict a 75 percent chance the virus could be imported to France by October 24, and a 50 percent chance it could hit Britain by that date. .../..

risk graph at http://www.mobs-lab.org/ebola.html

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:09 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

Market could have gone either way - if there were stops below eurusd 1,25, they would have been run at the openng but there wasn't even a run at it.

Upside should have been contained by 1.2570-80 yet we are now 1.26+ and have retraced all the NFP losses.

What would make me take notice?

Move above the 100 hour mva

Close for the week above 1.2662.

Close above 1.2510, which would break a string of 12 weeks of lower closes .

Monday effect.

Otherwise, we have seen this show before and each time it has been like a replay but I would be remiss if I didn't point out the risk.

Livingston nh 18:51 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

If you step back from the 1 hr and 4 hr charts the daily for the majors doesn't show any threat to the 21 dma - in fact the only one I track that has retraced Friday's move is USD/CAD -- AUD, EUR, GBP and JPY are only half to 3/4s of Friday move

A lot of firms feel compelled to comment on the Fed's new "preferred" labor index (the ultimate moving target) and some think bond trading today was affected -- this too shall pass

SaaR KaL 18:49 GMT October 6, 2014
Day's Trades

SHorts EURJPY in orders

		
Now 137.7745 133.1166
24 hrs 136.9424 132.3115
1 week 132.8603 128.3614

EURUSD SHorts
		
Now 1.2680 1.2321
24 hrs 1.2641 1.2283
1 week 1.2477 1.2123

SaaR KaL 18:47 GMT October 6, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

I am Placing SHorts now John
PI

		
Now 1.2680 1.2321
24 hrs 1.2641 1.2283
1 week 1.2477 1.2123

GVI Forex john 18:39 GMT October 6, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

This was one of those days when I took the Pivot point range wiith a grain of salt because the Friday range had been so wide. R1 (1.2621) has been breached. R2 is 1.2733. The Pivot Point levels have been useful because they signaled that there was a lot of risk today.

I certainly did not see this move. This is why traders who last for a long time survive. They use stops to protect against the unexpected.

SaaR KaL 18:37 GMT October 6, 2014
AUDUSD reversal is 1 year +
Reply   
IMO Folks
this coming 1-2 weeks is key reversal Point for AUDUSD.
My rough PI using daily data showing this

Now 1.0783 0.8641
1 Month 1.0943 0.8773
6 Month 1.1784 0.9465

My Hourly Estimates
Now 0.8979 0.8464
24 hrs 0.8980 0.8465
1 week 0.9019 0.8502

I am seriously thinking of a Long term position
from the hourly lows if drops this week
Just might hit parity in 6-8 months
Check it out

london red 18:37 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

they will probably drawback to trendline that popped so well. 23/26. while abv 2614 12700 in play

Paris ib 18:35 GMT October 6, 2014
Stops Everywhere
Reply   
One way market (long USDs) hitting stops EVERYWHERE. Too much cheerleading. And too many believers.

GVI Forex Blog 18:24 GMT October 6, 2014
RISK ON: Trade Fades. Another German Data Miss. Quiet U.S. Calendar
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CN- Holiday AU- RBA, JP- Trade, BOJ, DE- Industrial Output, CH- CPI, GB- Ind & Mfg Output

German Output Data were considerably weaker than forecast on hope weak data will force additional ECB ease. .By contrast, U.S.jobs data late last week were strong. Nevertheless, the yield on the U.S. 10-yr note fell.

RISK ON: Trade Fades. Another German Data Miss. Quiet U.S. Calendar

GVI Forex john 18:11 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

10-yr 2.414%

Mtl JP 18:05 GMT October 6, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: LMCI August 2014

I keep getting this creepy feeling that the FED's public alleged focus on some labor conditions numbers is just an effort to bamboozle the loyal believers in it, obfuscate and misdirect public's attention from something else. Exactly what it is isn't clear, but I am near certain that its public claim is b/s.
This does not mean that the FED's (mis)directive is not profi-t-radeable as that is a matter more of gaging what the player crowd does in reaction to FED's "guidance" and how long it follows it.

dc CB 17:50 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

GVI Forex john 16:02 GMT
"US 10-yr at 2.423% has me scratching my head after the jobs data Friday."

Auctions auctions auctions. don't underestimate the power of the FED et al.

london red 17:46 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

exactly jay. and it went down 4 figures since it was there. the only way to trade this one is to sell with tight stop. and keep chipping away. until it crosses 13020 im quite happy to sell rallies. above my res (12623/36) i have a potential 127 test but anything below 12571 knocks that right out of the water and focus is back on downside.
10yr flipping? if they dont hold 12540 (fut) its a bull trap set.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:09 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON



200 hour mva is most important (1.2661), last time above it was on Sept 17

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:05 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

Daily pivot 1.2561

R1 1.2621

london red 17:00 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

10yr powering thru res now only a reverse back under 12540 rules out 12570 test for dec fut.
yen. pair sucked down by yield drop. if below 85/87 then 108.45/50 the risk. back abv 200 hr ma required to relieve pressure.
euro looking to bust trendline 02 and 100 ma 04 for 12614/21 test. a second trendline at 26. it will really motor if break cleanly but i dont see then chasing the high. if they do we possibly have a short term bottom in place.

NY JM 16:53 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

Current conditions have flipped to Risk Off and FX market has trimmed some USD longs after EURUSD did not make a run at 1.25 and USDJPY did not make a run at 110.

You can use other signs but it is typical of what most Mondays have been like.

london red 16:17 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

theres just no inflation threat john. the market reacted on the number but already on friday started retracing losses. its still a frustrating sell rallies market as almost every data spike you can also buy the dip at support.
but its such a big market that folk can buy for a number of reasons and it can have nothing to do with data releases. you get the sell side from time to time on data but the safety issue is there throughout.

GVI Forex john 16:02 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

US 10-yr at 2.423% has me scratching my head after the jobs data Friday. A couple weeks ago i thought we were immediately headed for 2.60%+

london red 16:00 GMT October 6, 2014
Day's Trades

big lvl for dec 10yr right now 125.40. they will panic, 30 ticks by close if broken. will set dollar off on another leg lower also.

london red 15:51 GMT October 6, 2014
Day's Trades

yen. friday gap filled.

GVI Forex john 15:44 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

Based on equities generally remain  in a RISK-ON posture heading into the European close. August German factory orders were considerably weaker than expected. Many feel the soft data will cause the ECB to ease policy. Bad news is good news?. The EURUSD is holding the 1.2500 line.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. The 10-yr bund is 0.917%  -1.2% bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.359% -3.4 bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.434%, -0.7bp.The Psychological focus remains on 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher as China was on holiday.. Bourses in Europe ending  mostly up. U.S. shares are mostly  up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex Blog 15:39 GMT October 6, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The euro seems to have found a floor at 1.2500, as the terrible German factory orders data has not prevented EUR/USD's rebound from Friday's lows. The pair is around 1.2570 as of writing. WTI crude traded as low as $88.75/bbl before moving back up again.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Dead Cat Bounce

london red 15:08 GMT October 6, 2014
Day's Trades

yen. gap was to 109.02-108.99. unless we go under 109.13 risk is now gap wont get filled near term and we make higher high/trendline break (25/26)
similarly some wicks building on 5 15 and 60 min candles. if these dont get taken out we should revisit 50/47

NY JM 14:56 GMT October 6, 2014
Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

1.2576 - 38.2% of 1.2699-1.2500 (tested)
1.2580 = former low and top of 1.2570-80 res
1.2600 = 50%

SaaR KaL 14:55 GMT October 6, 2014
Day's Trades

IMO
Gold , AUDUSD and EURGBP are into the week of changing tide

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:50 GMT October 6, 2014
Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

As posted on GVIForex --

Monday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:28 GMT 10/06/2014 - My Profile
I like to fade first tests of my levels, gets a little trickier the more times tested as day stops tend to build but 1.2570-80 is still the resistance blocking 1.2600.

Livingston nh 14:42 GMT October 6, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: LMCI August 2014

Of course it's getting weaker this the "preferred" labor stat now - There are some charts and tables at the Fed

http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/2014/assessing-the-change-in-labor-market-conditions-20140522.html

GVI Forex john 14:37 GMT October 6, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: LMCI August 2014

Im Trying to figure this new data series out. Looks to me like it has been getting weaker?

GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT October 6, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: LMCI August 2014
Reply   
Changes in New Fed Labor Market Conditions Index
August 2.0
July 2.7
June 5.1
May 6.3
April 7.1

SaaR KaL 14:27 GMT October 6, 2014
Day's Trades

P.I for USDJPY friday
108.2716 105.5586
Not a good idea to long
===
USDCAD 1.1665 1.1397
I say long that baby

london red 14:16 GMT October 6, 2014
GBP

Chris, brexit on the wires all day. itll actually be a good thing for the uk in the long run. but if they want to run gbp down first im fine with that.

SaaR KaL 14:16 GMT October 6, 2014
Day's Trades

For now
USDCAD, EURNZD, AUDNZD, EURCAD, AUDCAD Recommended Long

GBPJPY (With spikes) , AUDJPY, NDX Recommended short

GVI Forex Blog 14:15 GMT October 6, 2014 Reply   
October 6, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, October 7. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CN- Holiday AU- RBA, JP- Trade, BOJ, DE- Industrial Output, CH- CPI, GB- Ind & Mfg Output

GVI Forex Data Outlook for October 7, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:13 GMT October 6, 2014
CALENDAR: Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


October 6, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, October 7. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CN- Holiday AU- RBA, JP- Trade, BOJ, DE- Industrial Output, CH- CPI, GB- Ind & Mfg Output

  • Far East: CN- Holiday AU- RBA, JP- Trade, BOJ
  • Europe: DE- Industrial Output, CH- CPI, GB- Ind & Mfg Output
  • North America: US- 3yr Auction, API Energy


GVI Forex john 14:08 GMT October 6, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Canada Ivey PMI (sa) September 2014

Canadian PMIs (Ivey and RBC-Markit). Ivey PMI is almost useless given its monthly volatility.



London Chris 14:05 GMT October 6, 2014
GBP

Took long enough to see 1.60!!!

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT October 6, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Canada Ivey PMI (sa) September 2014
Reply   




ALERT
58.6 vs. 53.4 exp. vs. 50.9 prev.
RELEASE: Ivey Purchasing Managers Report


TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 14:00 GMT October 6, 2014
Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

bull trap set in last minute for yen. back in channel and favorite now to fill gap

GVI Forex john 13:54 GMT October 6, 2014
Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

Most here do not give Jay much feedback on his skill at picking trading levels. Note how he called EURUSD 1.2570-80 as resistance before the market opened for the week. High has been 1.2570

For thosde who have not signed up for his weekly video, I suggest doing so now

Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

GVI Forex john 13:46 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON

10-yr 2.4410% unch from earlier. Im surprised we are still below 2.50% following the August employment data on Friday, especially with equities higher...

london red 13:10 GMT October 6, 2014
Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

yen. has broken abv upper channel line on hourly chart recently. channel well defined and in play since asia. but im wary here given the big 109 expiry and gap still to fill down to 109. i would reassess that thru 109.60, with 110 the focus then.

london red 12:53 GMT October 6, 2014
Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

euro. 47/50 now becomes support. its the last line before 38 (-2% 21dma). below 38 i would expect sellers waiting to sell blips higher to chase the pair down as by then it would be clear that the intraday high is in and pair would be favorite to test fib/barrier before another attempt to rally could be considered.
topside remains 71 prev high 76 fib 83 prev low and 50 hour ma with the hourly trendline at 87 (falling about 1.5 pips evry hr). 50% fib at 12599. further 12610,14,21 - dont expect that to be breached today.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:45 GMT October 6, 2014
Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

I put the video outlook on youtube (click below) in the hope you will then register to get it on a regular basis.

Price action was like a textbook.

Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:25 GMT October 6, 2014
Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

Suggest watching this... note 1.3570 so far holding

Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

EURUSD 1.25 clearly pivotal in a light news week.

HKG QQ 12:18 GMT October 6, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Why is usd down?

Livingston nh 12:15 GMT October 6, 2014
CALENDAR: Daily Forex Data News

The Fed is likely to come under political pressure from both parties - harping on the labor market before the election is a no-win situation // The Three Amigos are testifying this week about AIG bailout -- this will also open old political wounds

GVI Forex john 12:09 GMT October 6, 2014
CALENDAR: Daily Forex Data News
Reply   
Today sees the LMCI (Labor Market Conditions Index) which will be released sometime after 10:00 AM.

Oanda Reviews 12:03 GMT October 6, 2014 Reply   

A Broker Review for Oanda has just been added.

SaaR KaL 11:36 GMT October 6, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

IMO EURJPY this week
range 137.82 133.17 or near

SaaR KaL 11:35 GMT October 6, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Although I am Still bullish USDCAD and USDCHF...but not USDJPY
I doubt will go higher then 110.5 this week
seems like heading to well below 108.3
Possible 106 IMO

GVI Forex john 11:29 GMT October 6, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD and USDJPY both testing their pivots (1.2561 and 109.34).

GVI Forex john 11:19 GMT October 6, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   
Selected daily USD & EUR Pivots. Complete Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System




GVI Forex Blog 10:58 GMT October 6, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The economic data continued to be weak for Europe and suggested further downside risks for EUR currency. The Euro did consolidate in the session. The 1.24 level is a key psychological point for the EUR/USD pair. This is the level where back in July 2012 ECB chief Draghi made his famous speech that he would do everything to defend the Euro

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: USD consolidates its recent gains

london red 10:56 GMT October 6, 2014
GBP

Chris i think the break below 1.60 was quite important. i have a retracement fib at 16003. whilst below there think its contained. one possible scenario is we get euro a little higher, dragging eurgbp to 7874/80, then cable springs abv 1.60 pulling eurgbp back to 50/60. the second would be a simple euro retracement back lower taking eurgbp with it. the third of course could be market continues to sell dollar and we see 16050 cable euro 12583-12620. but youd fancy folk coming in to sell euros up there.

hk nt 10:54 GMT October 6, 2014
Euro
Reply   
Any thoughts of Euro in coming months? Probable to see Euro at par with USD? Thx

GVI Forex john 10:48 GMT October 6, 2014
EARLIER BREAKING NEWS: German Factory Orders August 2014

red- all good points. We always say the reaction of the markets to news can be more important than the news itself

London Chris 10:47 GMT October 6, 2014
GBP
Reply   
Cable back to 1.60? Dollar sellers stepping aside after exhausting themselves on Friday.

london red 10:44 GMT October 6, 2014
Day's Trades

dec 10yr now retraced all post nfp losses. but not yet beaten hourly high of bar during which nfp was released. but while under 125.40 risk of unwind back to 125. further res at 125.70 likely to be seen quickly if 125.40 does get broken.

GVI Forex 09:56 GMT October 6, 2014
Breaking News: Spreads Matter! Leading Forex Broker Lowers Spreads
Reply   

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GVI Forex Blog 09:38 GMT October 6, 2014
German August Factory Orders Miss. Quiet Calendar
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CA- Ivey PMI

Monday features German Output Data were considerably weaker than forecast on hope weak data will force additional ECB ease. .By contrast, U.S.jobs data late last week were strong. Tuesday sees central bank decisions from Australia and Japan. Also U.K. production data are slated.

German August Factory Orders Miss. Quiet Calendar

GVI Forex john 09:28 GMT October 6, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk ON
Reply   
The markets generally are in a RISK-ON posture to start the new week. August German factory orders were consigerably weaker than expected, but many feel the soft data will cause the ECB to ease policy. Bad news is good news? The EURUSD is holding the 1.2500 line.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are higher. The 10-yr bund is 0.915%  -1.4% bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.365% -2.8 bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.443%, +0.2bp.The Psychological focus remains on 2.50%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher as China was on holiday.. Bourses in Europe are mostly up. U.S. shares are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


london red 09:16 GMT October 6, 2014
EARLIER BREAKING NEWS: German Factory Orders August 2014

john, euro briefly spiked lower on data this morning but quickly regained footing - moving higher on soft data, a priceless indicator of trend. if we are to retain a negative near term bias it will give out no higher than 12583-12621 (the levels i provided earlier should be useful at pinpointing the turning point) any higher than this and market may have a temporary bottom which would then be tested (down to 12570/50) before a move higher to 127 where can be expected to turn lower again. for euro to bottom long term, there needs to be a fundamental change in US interest rate policy, not something thats on the horizon, while changes in levels of hawkishness will provide the troughs/peaks in the downward trend.

SaaR KaL 09:01 GMT October 6, 2014
Day's Trades

GBPJPY shorts with spikes is not a problem folks

GVI Forex john 08:58 GMT October 6, 2014
EARLIER BREAKING NEWS: German Factory Orders August 2014

Very weak factory orders.

GVI Forec Jay Meislet 08:56 GMT October 6, 2014
Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead
Reply   
Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

EURUSD clearly pivotal in anlight news week.

GVI Forex john 08:54 GMT October 6, 2014
EARLIER BREAKING NEWS: German Factory Orders August 2014
Reply   



EARLIER NEWS ALERT
mm -5.70% vs. -2.50% exp. vs. +4.60% (r +4.90%) prev.
yy -1.30% vs. +2.60% exp. vs. +4.90% (r +5.90%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

SaaR KaL 08:52 GMT October 6, 2014
Day's Trades

I might short USDJPY around US Open
Possible range this week
109.73 106.96
I can not long it guys

SaaR KaL 08:49 GMT October 6, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Short NDX here tgt lower then 3950

will short EURUSD at around 1.2634 this week
cable shorts from above 1.6080

london red 07:37 GMT October 6, 2014
trading levels
Reply   
possibly fighting the tide a little since dollar is weak overall today, but a break of 15950 for cable will point to further losses and will make eurgbp to 7974/80 possible today. eur has res at 12538(2% below 21 day ma) then 47,50, 71, 76, 83 and first hourly trendline 12592. barrier at 125 and fib at 12502. below these then 12465 and 12376.
yen. 3 yards at 109 ex today. gap to fill to 109.02-108.99. 50% of 110x/108x at 108.96. prev low 109.13 200 hour 109.18. 109-109.20 looking likely good area to switch to long. below 108.87 brings 50 into play then 37, below that we retest 76.4 fib at 107.90.

Paris ib 07:22 GMT October 6, 2014
Hong Kong - the Geopolitical Dimension
Reply   
'Chinese state media have attacked Scholarism as extremists and a pro-Beijing Hong Kong-based paper claimed that “US forces” had worked to cultivate Wong as a “political superstar” – accusations Wong has dismissed.'

If the recent sell off in U.S. Treasuries continues you know Beijng is not pleased.

For some reason the U.S. doesn't seem to understand just how financially vulnerable it is.

The U.S. messes with its funding AGAIN

Paris ib 07:08 GMT October 6, 2014
Some People are Gearing up for More War - Some People are Not
Reply   
“We’ve killed more Muslims than they’ve killed us, by an awful lot. We’ve invaded more Muslim countries than they’ve invaded ours, by an awful lot. Yet somehow we’re exempted from these things because they’re not really a reflection of what we believe in. We did it by accident, that’s why we invaded Iraq.” Ben Affleck

Turns out the United States is not populated entirely by delusional people. The media however doesn't want you to know that. Bill Maher's response? Change the subject.

Meanwhile we have a problem. The entire universe has been fed the line that the USD must rally from here - and all sorts of interesting targets have been pencilled in - the real capital flows are not forthcoming. The speculative universe is long USDs up to the gills, but that's about it. Friday afternoon is when the U.S. has the market pretty much to itself.... but there was no follow on USD buying in Asia Monday. A failure to break higher, given all the houpla, is not a good sign for the USD.

Another interesting geopolitical fact: as the Hong Kong protests geared up (some say financed by the U.S.) U.S. Treasuries took a belting. Some nutters tried to link that to Gross jumping ship. The reality is more likely to be that the Chinese hold 1 trillion in U.S. Government debt and don't appreciate the U.S. meddling in domestic affairs.

Washington Again

GVI Forex Blog 05:12 GMT October 6, 2014 Reply   
(AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT ANZ JOB ADS M/M: 0.9% (4th consecutive increase) V 1.6% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT TD SECURITIES INFLATION M/M: 0.1% V 0.0% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.4% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT Q

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: World Bank cuts China GDP target; Rousseff to face Neves in runoff; Occupy Central regroups - Source TradeTheNews.com

tokyo ginko 02:22 GMT October 6, 2014
stocks to close positive

close out @ 1965.5 ..

will re enter again below 1950

GT all!

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:56 GMT October 6, 2014
AceTrader Oct 6: Intra-Day News & Views(GBP/USD) & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

06 Oct 2014 01:01GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Cable came under renewed selling pressure at NZ open today on bearish comments by U.K. Business Secretary Vince Cable.

Bloomberg reported Vince Cable said U.K.'s economic growth is being hampered by stalled exports, partly as a result of the high value of sterling.

"Arguably, the pound is overvalued by 10 to 15% on a trade-weighted basis," Cable told a side meeting yesterday at his Liberal Democrat party's annual conference in Glasgow, Scotland. "This feeds back into monetary policy. It is a significant problem that we can't directly address."

His comments echo those of BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent, who said in an interview in July that it's "quite possible" the pound is 10% overvalued n its strength may have a long-lasting impact on inflation. The IMF said the same month in its External Stability Report that the pound was overvalued by 10% to 15%.

Sterling is nursing loss in subdued Asian trading after opening lower in NZ on w/end bearish comments by U.K. Bus. Secretary Vince Cable. Short-term specs sold cable at Mon open on stop hunting, price briefly fell below Fri's 1.5953 low to a near 1-year trough of 1.5943 (Reuters), however, lack of follow-through selling later lifted the pound at Asian open.

Although range trading is in store in quiet Asian morning, Fri's sell off below Sept's 1.6052 low suggests signals recent decline has once again, so selling cable on recovery is the way to go. Order board is pretty empty, some offers are noted at 1.5980/890 n more abv with stops touted abv 1.6050. Some bids are noted at 1.5945-35. The only data due out at London open is Halifax house price at 07:00GMT.

Data to be released next week:

China market holiday, Germany industrial orders, UK Halifax house prices, EU sentix index and Canada Ivey PMI on Monday.

New Zealand business confidence, Japan BoJ rate decision, leading indicators, Australia RBA rate decision, Germany industrial output, Swiss CPI, retail sales, UK industrial output, manufacturing output, Canada building permits and U.S. redbook retail sales on Tuesday.

UK BRC shop price index, Japan current account, China HSBC services PMI, Swiss unemployment, Canada housing starts and U.S. FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

Japan machinery orders, Australia employment, unemployment, consumer confidence, Germany imports, exports, trade balance, France imports, exports, trade balance, UK BoE rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, wholesale sales, wholesale inventories and Canada new housing price index on Thursday.

Japan BoJ minutes, consumer confidence, France industrial output, Italy industrial output, UK trade balance, Canada employment, unemployment, U.S. export price index and import price index on Friday.

SF WM 01:41 GMT October 6, 2014
good morning all

Long time since I posted here

1.25 seems to have a strong defense

Sell rallies if they come

Brisbane PD 01:41 GMT October 6, 2014
good morning all

Good Morning
Thanks for that.
It's also a bank holiday in China.

GVI Forex 01:10 GMT October 6, 2014
good morning all

Trading activity was likely to be thinner than usual on Monday, with Singapore and most of Australia closed for local holidays, and Typhoon Phanfone battering Japan and interfering with the morning commute...RTRS

tokyo ginko 00:10 GMT October 6, 2014
good morning all
Reply   
a wet Tokyo here this morning..

Nikkei look to 15760-15950

all quiet here..

nw kw 00:03 GMT October 6, 2014
Ebola in the USA

West Africa trade cut off can keep some pressers in world trade ,how trades with them

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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