Forex Forum Archive for 10/07/2014

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:27 GMT October 7, 2014
eurusd

I show 1.2610 (coincidentally the daily pivot) as key one hour support. Red, good alert on the JOLTS report.

GVI Forex BLS 14:24 GMT October 7, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Fed JOLTS Survey August 2014

JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – AUGUST 2014

There were 4.8 million job openings on the last business day of August, up from 4.6 million in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The hires rate (3.3 percent) was down and the separations rate (3.2 percent) was essentially unchanged in August. Within separations, the quits rate (1.8 percent) was unchanged and the layoffs and discharges rate (1.1 percent) was little changed.

This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four geographic regions. ...

BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

london red 14:12 GMT October 7, 2014
eurusd

current hourly low is 23 it needs to hold or current move breaks down for bulls. if broken we should see 12614 quite quickly and probably 12600/06 tested. but so far dollar reacting as it should to a bit of good news.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:04 GMT October 7, 2014
eurusd

I show the 200 hour mva currently around 1.2645

london red 14:04 GMT October 7, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Fed JOLTS Survey August 2014

thats a really good number. it should help dollar. but if we get back to where we were, chances are we look at the 10 day ma.

Tallinn viies 14:03 GMT October 7, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
selling euros near 200 hour moving average still seems to work.

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT October 7, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Fed JOLTS Survey August 2014
Reply   

Livingston nh 13:59 GMT October 7, 2014
US stocks

The big banks are learning that "you never settle" with the government or a shark - they will be back

Retail a drag as warnings abound

Fear of global slowdown (see Germany) - following bond market lead

UK CFD Trader 13:55 GMT October 7, 2014
US stocks
Reply   
Why are stocks falling?

SaaR KaL 13:54 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

Thanks Red...will do

Starting to short Gold around here

Livingston nh 13:51 GMT October 7, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

The "inexplicable" drop in yields in US is leading corrections in currency and stox (gap 1945 tgt)

london red 13:46 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

big 12650 and 108 expiries. might just release the market after cut shortly. remember jolts at top of hours as well.

SaaR KaL 13:42 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

Out USDJPY Shorts here ...will wait

Still shorting EURUSD and cable

Adding longs EURGBP
and Longs USDCHF

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:37 GMT October 7, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

I posted the following 3 scenarios on GVI Forex earlier when the USD was trading higher. Which one do you favor?

1. Market takes a breather. string of 12 lower weekly closes gets broken. 1.25-1.27 acts as a consolidation range.

2. History repeats. New low follows another failed retracement attempt.

3. Monday Effect. Retracenent pressures build Thursday and/or Friday as long as Monday's low stays intact and there is distance above it. You can make a case for a Monday Effect if Monday high stays intact but a stronger case for it is when the high or low for the week is set in early Far East trading.

Paris ib 13:34 GMT October 7, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Jay - we will see soon enough what it is. Bit early to say unequivocally one way or another, don't you say? As for yield support.... that's a whole other can of worms. There might be a lot of ifs out there. Right now the USD is under pressure. Whether this is a turning point or NOT will be seen.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:31 GMT October 7, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

If US 10 year was at 2.60% rather than 2.40%, the post-US jobs reports FX moves would have gotten support tp carry on. Instead lack of yield support is forcing the fx market to unwind.

As for the EURUSD, don't confuse a retracement (long overdue?) with the overall trend.

With that said, this worked out (as posted earlier):
One hour chart tried to breakout to upside (through mvas) but failed below 1.2699. Now have to see if 1.2570-80 becomes support. Logic says there should be some bids from those caught out by yesterday's surprise squeeze up.

Paris ib 13:28 GMT October 7, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

red if you listen to the officials the Europeans have started to say enough is enough and now the Yanks.

Sydney ACC 13:25 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

For the last couple of weeks Aussie has moved closely in line with JPY.
Today the range has been tightly constrained between 95.25 and 95.50, as USD/JPY has moved so has AUD/USD.

london red 13:25 GMT October 7, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

lew comments unsettling for dollar id say. talking about yourselves but veiled reference to others. surely they arent worried about dollar strength already.

Paris ib 13:23 GMT October 7, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

John the USD went straight down. That's not price instability. There has been some retrace today - not much - and now the EUR/USD is being bought again. In fact the USD is pretty much getting trashed against everything and you are still encouraging traders to buy USDs. Why?

london red 13:22 GMT October 7, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

125.70 on the dec fut. anything abv here if sustains means back abv 126 and towards contract high.

Livingston nh 13:22 GMT October 7, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

What does the Treasury Market see?

GVI Forex john 13:19 GMT October 7, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

10-yr 2.389% back below 2.40%

london red 13:18 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

thx mate much appreciated.

sd sf 13:17 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

$yen is the culprit as well in terms of AUD + NZD .. that tends to stir up buying when it is weak.

RBNZ already sold 550 in this 7850-7900 before .. and the PM an ex currency trader was saying 6600 is where it should be - but it might not get that low in this cycle.

here we have alot of challenges and restructuring of companies to cope with lower demand levels to come.... its one of those things - let it find a top on its own and join in when that is done.

GVI Forex john 13:14 GMT October 7, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

One comment I should make Re: trading yesterday afternoon in NYC, I have found over the years that price INSTABILITY like we saw is often indicative of the end of a move. In this case I am referring to the EURUSD one-day upward correction. I think it results from short-covering in an illiquid market (no speculative sellers) where there is no underlying demand to fill in the gaps in buying.

P.S. This can also happen in markets trading in the opposite direction.

london ref 13:10 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

Thx sf, any take on aussie its might close to causing bears some trouble. V well bid today so far

sd sf 13:02 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

some of my best performing bots are selling eurusd @26-8 looking for 1.2570 + 1.2540 .. obviously closes over 1.2660 then it will be a new story.

think you mentioned those levels as well Red.

sd sf 12:58 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

matter of time before RBNZ and RBA covertly sell

I doubt they want a rising currency with eurusd based @1.2500 .. obviously the issue is whether that is today, tomorrow or next week.

sd sf 12:54 GMT October 7, 2014
Fix is In

so I'm supposed to take on every client order without protection even though the same order sits with 5 other banks ?

Its not possible to manage the risk that way.

the collusive part is harmful and wrong .. but still you get jammed a couple times and you don't have a job.

easy to criticize when your not on the desk.

london red 12:50 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

the rio side of the glencore potential deal may be having an effect but its pure speculation in any case.

Plovdiv Gotin 12:46 GMT October 7, 2014
eur/usd
Reply   
What is the target from 1.2500?And from 1.2675?TIA

london red 12:45 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

yen. 10790 is 23.6 of big move to 110x. we bounced once already. a move below will be a double top with a target of 106. if they survive 110 is back on. so expect a big deal down here. bull/bear traps could feature.

NY JM 12:42 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

1,2675-1,2584

1.2630 = 50%
1,2640 = 61.8%

GVI Forex john 12:40 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

Interesting that Aussie is bid despite the RBA talking down its currency once again today.

london red 12:30 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

aussie. well bid today. res at 8826/30 key as would make a higher daily high. would be first of majors to do this. surely would pop to res at 50 v quickly followed by more at 8880. one to watch.

london red 12:17 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

loonie. last hourly low at 11132 is base of double top. below 11129 fib we are looking at somewhere short of the prev low of 11071 but it might just overshoot down to there at which point youd fancy a long.

london red 12:09 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

jolts survey out in a couple of hours may be a show me the money time for dollar correction. should be a good survey so seeing if dollar holds onto its gains or reverses will be key indicator for days trend.

Memphis Charles 11:36 GMT October 7, 2014
Fix is In
Reply   
Oops, link posting fouled up.

Big Bank Fx Fix

SaaR KaL 11:32 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

Yes Red
I am Starting to close some Longs
Will long later

Now Buying more USDCHF IMO .9734 is ok tgt

london red 11:28 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

loonie. anything below 1157/60 suggests to me a move big to 11129 former fib level.

SaaR KaL 11:27 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

EURCAD...Changing Direction...I was Bullish
Now not sure... bearish seems better...or stay away for a while

GVI Forex john 11:27 GMT October 7, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Current "neutrality" n EURUSD is its 1.2610 pivot based on yesterday's ranges. Pivot Point becomes neutral afte we have traded on ether side of it several times. First time through its a break-out level.

As I pointed out yesterday, Support and Resistance lines are wide due the wide trading range on Monday.

london red 11:11 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

a lot of big 126-12650 expiries all week fwiw. may shackle us til end of week. often market gets a bit paralysed after a big counter move like this and they wait it out till end of week. fed minutes should give something to act on however.

SaaR KaL 11:07 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

EURJPY wants 136.00
GBPJPY wants 172.5

GVI Forex john 11:06 GMT October 7, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   
UPDATED: See Chart Point tables for complete data.

Mtl JP 11:01 GMT October 7, 2014
Eurozone split - Europe's central drama

read some where an OECD blip claiming that a 10% usd appreciation will mean -0.5% decline in its GDP

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:59 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades



One hour chart tried to breakout to upside (through mvas) but failed below 1.2699. Now have to see if 1.2570-80 becomes support. Logic says there should be some bids from those caught out by yesterday's surprise squeeze up.

Assume 1.26 is neutral (and sets its tone) if 1.25-1.27 holds as a consolidation range.

SaaR KaL 10:58 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

EURGBP Nice Buy till 0.7812
tgt .7920
Ok I'll buy..Thanks

GVI Forex john 10:49 GMT October 7, 2014
Eurozone split - Europe's central drama

One thing changing for the U.S. is that it has STARTED to export oil. That was not legal until very recently. That could start to bring the trade accounts into balance and generate forex reserves.

Mtl JP 10:48 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

not keeping up a eurgbp chart but almost every time I look at the quote it is +/- few pips around 7840

SaaR KaL 10:46 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

I see cable next day at 1.5800 easy
EURUSD 1.2445

Mtl JP 10:41 GMT October 7, 2014
Eurozone split - Europe's central drama

the crux is too much debt on which interest has gone exponentially parabolic. IF it were only matter of attracting capital central bankers would not freaking out by making keeping money at their banks at negative rates and threats of printing more to instill fear to spend it or lose purchasing power which is their combination effort to not just provide capital but make it "rotate" i.e. be deployed.

The current meme (theme) is currency war: competitive devalue currency on the claim that exports will somehow boost economic growth.

You want to refer to the link my 11:08 GMT October 5, 2014
World Policymakers to ponder how to sustain economic recovery : Reply

Austerity versus growth version 3.0 at G20/IMF - RTRS

Reuters' Mike Peacock claims that "it is not hard to guess how the debate will go"
-
Just do not expect bankers to publicly talk about how precarious debt on book is making their financial system. Just remember that mathematically there is no way for some economic growth to catch its ability to pay the interest let alone pay it down some.

GVI Forex Blog 10:40 GMT October 7, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Dealers noted some divergence emerging in Japan on the currency front. The BoJ reiterated its desire for a weaker currency and suggested that recent weakness was not hurting the economy, government officials were now starting to take a different line. The JPY firmed just ahead of the European morning as BOJ left its policy unchanged

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Diverging rhetoric from Japan on Yen currency weakness; Weak German data weighs on equities

london red 10:38 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

euro. inverse shs poss if 12570 holds, its really bulls last chance before 12540 and 12500 retest. we should at least bounce at 12570. to poss 12600/10. if no bounce comes then sellers will jump in quickly on break.

SaaR KaL 10:31 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

USDCAD will make a show north Folks
I am Buying big time

Paris ib 09:39 GMT October 7, 2014
Eurozone split - Europe's central drama

But what is the FX conclusion of this report? The Euro area runs a current account surplus and a trade surplus. So obviously the external accounts are not a problem. The exchange rate is not this big deal then, despite what the French say.

The U.S. runs a trade deficit and a current account deficit. And while the jobs numbers suggest a recovery of sorts is under way the external accounts suggest a lower USD would have a positive impact on industry and jobs.

The crux of the matter seems to be: attracting capital. The U.S. relies on foreign capital flows and has done for decades.... The idea behind the general line of USD bullishness comes down to this: give us your money it won't go down in value - in fact you may gain on the exchange rate. And with the aim of attracting capital inflows the U.S. seems to be prepared to accept the negative impact on it trade and industry performance.

GVI Forex RBA 09:34 GMT October 7, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Reserve Bank of Australia Decision
Reply   
EARLIER TODAY:

"...The exchange rate has declined recently, in large part reflecting the strengthening US dollar, but remains high by historical standards, particularly given the further declines in key commodity prices in recent months. It is offering less assistance than would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy.

Looking ahead, continued accommodative monetary policy should provide support to demand and help growth to strengthen over time. Inflation is expected to be consistent with the 2–3 per cent target over the next two years.

In the Board's judgement, monetary policy is appropriately configured to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target. On present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates."

Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

GVI Forex Blog 09:27 GMT October 7, 2014
RISK OFF: European Equities Follow U.S. Stocks Lower. Another German Data Miss
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: No Major Releases

German August Industrial Output Data were considerably weaker than expected. the data could l force additional ECB ease. . The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan both kept policy steady today. The RBA talked the Aussie dollar down once again.

RISK OFF: European Equities Follow U.S. Stocks Lower. Another German Data Miss

GVI Forex 09:19 GMT October 7, 2014
Eurozone split - Europe's central drama
Reply   
This is worth reading

Delay over hard economic reforms keeps eurozone in doldrums

GVI Forex john 09:14 GMT October 7, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply   
Based on equities makets are generally in a  RISK-OFF posture heading into the U.S. sessin. August German industrial output data were very weak. We have to wonder if the poor  the soft data will cause the ECB to ease policy?. The EURUSD is above the 1.2500 line.

• Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mixed. The 10-yr bund is 0.910%  +0.60% bp. Peripheral bond yields are mixed.
  
• The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.345% +1.4 bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  
• U.S.10-yr yield is 2.400%, -2.7bp.The Psychological focus remains on 2.50%.
  
• Far East equities closed mixed.. Bourses in Europe are lowe early.. U.S. share futures are down.
  
  The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).
  

  ---

  
  

tokyo ginko 08:53 GMT October 7, 2014
stocks to close positive

oda done..hold on tight...

GVI Forex john 08:49 GMT October 7, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: UK Industrial & Manufacturing Output August 2014

No market impact from U.K. Output data, which were in line with street forecasts.

Paris ib 08:47 GMT October 7, 2014
USD bull party

Which doesn't square with the number bandied around by that guy you linked to:

"At around $400 billion each year, Europe’s current account surplus is bigger than China’s in the 2000s. If sustained...."

I guess if the exchange rate moves up quite a bit we would get to $400 billion U.S...... but we're not there yet.

GVI Forex john 08:46 GMT October 7, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: August 2014 German Industrial Output

Another set of even weaker than expected German data.

GVI Forex john 08:41 GMT October 7, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Swiss CPI September 2014

EARLIER: Swiss September CPI (y/y) turns negative to -0.10% y/y. Deflation?

Paris ib 08:35 GMT October 7, 2014
USD bull party

OK got the data:

The seasonally adjusted 12-month cumulated current account for the period ending in July 2014 recorded a surplus of €237.6 billion (2.5% of euro area GDP), compared with €201.3 billion (2.1% of euro area GDP) for the 12 mths to July 2013.

The rise was mostly a result of an improved trade performance. So much for the French idea that the Euro area needs a lower Euro to enhance trade. Looks to me like certain parties want to help the U.S. out with the 'wall of money' idea. The flood of other people's money into the U.S. this time is supposed to come from Europe. So they beat the drum on that one.

Euro Area Current Account surplus

Brisbane PD 08:34 GMT October 7, 2014
uk

Thanks !

GVI Forex john 08:33 GMT October 7, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: UK Industrial & Manufacturing Output August 2014
Reply   

-- NEWS ALERT --
Ind mm: 0.00% vs. 0.00% exp. vs. +0.50% (+0.40%) prev.
Ind yy: +2.50% vs. +2.60% exp. vs. +1.70% (+2.20%) prev.

Mfg mm:+0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.
Mfg yy: +3.90% vs. +3.30% exp. vs. +2.20% (+3.50%)prev.

GVI Forex john 08:27 GMT October 7, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Swiss CPI September 2014
Reply   

GVI Forex john 08:23 GMT October 7, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: August 2014 German Industrial Output
Reply   

tokyo ginko 08:21 GMT October 7, 2014
stocks to close positive

oda key in 1945.5
GT all

london red 08:19 GMT October 7, 2014
uk
Reply   
manf and indust prodn out shortly f/c flat to marginally higher. im bearish here on the numbers. the thing to watch will be in cable can stay below predata levels if falls initially. euro again as yesterday, got its lease of life following poor numbers.

Paris ib 07:48 GMT October 7, 2014
USD bull party

Plus his numbers seem a bit off. Annual current account surplus of the Euro Area seems to be about 100 billion. I haven't had a huge amount of time to look at this. But it's not this huge number which is going to turn the tide and meet all the financial funding requirements of the USA.

EuroArea Current Account

Paris ib 07:41 GMT October 7, 2014
USD bull party

This sounds like the wall of money idea that was supposed to see JGBs sell off (they rallied) and money flood into the U.S. Treasury market from Japan (it didn't). What did happen is a massive speculative build up in USD/JPY.

European savers to rescue the US

Sydney ACC 07:34 GMT October 7, 2014
USD bull party

FYI*

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/10/06/the-euroglut-could-hammer-the-euro-hold-down-u-s-interest-rates-and-drive-global-markets/

SaaR KaL 07:22 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

Couple of SHort Cable here

Paris ib 07:20 GMT October 7, 2014
USD bull party
Reply   
Yesterday driving in Italy I heard an ad for USD denominated bonds from a local bank. Which came with a little kicker about 'currency risk'. Yeah right no kidding. Everyone is so convinced the USD is gonna rise now they are flogging this stuff to mum and dad. And now the speculative market has started to choke on USD longs.

GVI Forex Blog 04:31 GMT October 7, 2014 Reply   
- (AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 2.50%; AS EXPECTED (13TH STRAIGHT PAUSE) - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT AIG PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX: 59.1 (9-year high, 3rd

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: RBA maintains policy stance and view of AUD; Hong Kong PMI contracts for 2nd month - Source TradeTheNews.com

tokyo ginko 03:42 GMT October 7, 2014
aud super volatile here..
Reply   
hunting for stops..GT all!

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:47 GMT October 7, 2014
AceTrader Oct 7: Intra-Day News & Views(USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views

07 Oct 2014 01:34GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Reuters news quoting BOJ GOV Kuroda who is speaking before the parliament and says, quote:
recent export moves lacking momentum;
exports likely to improve moderately as overseas growth picks up;
tankan showed CAPEX plans are pretty firm;
positive cycle of households, companies using their income for spending is in place;
effect of sales tax hike on economy being prolonged, bad weather also affecting economy;
weak yen is generally positive for Japan's economy if it reflects economic, market fundamentals;
in general, weak yen has some positive effects on exports, Japan firms operating overseas;
weak yen also pushes down earnings of non-manufacturers by pushing up import costs.

Kuroda continues n says BOJ ready to adjust policy if needed, which means we will ease policy if economic, price outlook undershoots our forecasts; economy on steady track to meet 2% inflation goal; receny yen weakness due to diverging monetary policies between Japan, U.S. n Europe; yen weakness up until now has not been a problem for Japan's economy; important for public finances to be sustainable; appreciate govt's effort to tackle fiscal reforms.


01:12GMT Japan's GPIF now aims to decide portfolio overhaul between mid-Nov n mid-Dec, source.
Japan's Chief Govt. Spokesman says "had expected weak yen to boost exports but now moving sideways".
This morning BOJ Governor Kuroda to appear in parliament from around 01:20GMT - parliamentary source.
BOJ board meeting to recess for about 1-2 hours during time GOV Kuroda appears in parliament.

Last night, the greenback tumbled to as low as 108.65 due to active long liquidation in thin U.S. trading. Offers are tipped at 109.00-10 n more at 109.30. On the downside, a mixture of bids n stops is located at 108.50.

Tuesday will see the release of New Zealand business confidence, Japan BoJ rate decision, leading indicators, Australia RBA rate decision, Germany industrial output, Swiss CPI, retail sales, UK industrial output, manufacturing output, Canada building permits and U.S. redbook retail sales.

Syd 02:42 GMT October 7, 2014
AUD
Reply   
A softer reading for Australian house price growth in September may have eased some of the concerns the central bank has about the housing market, however the trend in dwelling values remains strong with the RP Data CoreLogic index reporting a 2.9% increase in capital city house price growth over the third quarter, says Tim Lawless, head of research at RP Data. If investor interest in these markets doesn't moderate the central bank, in conjunction with the banking regulator, can be expected to intervene via prudential regulation of the banking sector to attempt to slow down the level of investment lending activity in the market,

SaaR KaL 00:11 GMT October 7, 2014
Day's Trades

Friday Close
My Best P.I Estimates for Friday close

EURUSD 1.2577 1.2221
GBPUSD 1.5833 1.5385
USDJPY 109.6299 105.5903
USDCHF 0.9928 0.9649
USDCAD 1.1609 1.1214
AUDUSD 0.9001 0.8494