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Forex Forum Archive for 10/09/2014

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dc CB 23:55 GMT October 9, 2014
Outside Day Down
Reply   
RR tracks

who is willing to touch the 3rd Rail

OMG

dc CB 23:41 GMT October 9, 2014
The entrails reveal

WHY DO De's Guys get to determine your trades: WIN or LOSE

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/10/09/icahn-praises-cook-but-urges-more-apple-share-buybacks/?ref=business

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/10/09/bill-gross-in-his-second-life-strikes-a-gloomy-note/?ref=business

basically

SHITS

dc CB 22:25 GMT October 9, 2014
The entrails reveal

I'll always remember Kevin.

it was so hard on the way down

def dooo it

dc CB 22:18 GMT October 9, 2014
The entrails reveal
Reply   
Fear and trepidation

http://www.zerohedge.com/

Read it he(a)re

OMG OMG OMG is Kevin Dead

Kloeee

Livingston nh 22:12 GMT October 9, 2014
Coal

Thanx guys -- hmmm, a rate hike - I'll proceed w/ caution

Sydney ACC 21:56 GMT October 9, 2014
Coal
Reply   
Hearing Reuters reports China is set to reintroduce import tariffs of between 3 and 6 per cent on coal.
That can't help local miners who are getting USD 52 a tonne whereas in December 2013 the price was USD85. ABARRE predicted at that time 2014 prices would average USD 89 per tonne.
At that time Stevens called fair value for AUD versus USD was 85 cents. Commodity prices much lower now. Iron ore Sep average USD 82 versus last December's USD 135,

Mtl JP 21:55 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

sd sf 21:39 that is an old economic meme
typically when you have time you do not have money and
when you have money you don't have time

sd sf 21:45 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

Here is some commentary after yesterday :

"The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 2.5 per cent for October, extending its long period of rate stability to 14 months of no change.

While the decision is in line with the predictions made by all 13 economists surveyed by AAP, eight of the experts are expecting the central bank to hike rates in the first half of 2015.

A rate rise would be the first in over four years, and the first movement from the RBA since August 2013.

Experts say there is a 46 per cent chance of an increase during the third quarter of 2015, a 21 per cent chance that rates will begin to rise in the first quarter next year, an 18 per cent chance of rates to start rising in the second quarter of 2015 and a seven per cent likelihood of rate hikes from October next year."

Sydney ACC 21:44 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

Little prospect of RBA cutting interest rates notwithstanding developments in the domestic economy.

sd sf 21:39 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

from what I understand - the consensus here is now for a "Hike"

but that this is some way off.

I doubt they can "Cut" as Property prices would simply become unaffordable even worse than they are for now for many.

Where I live an apartment big enough to swing a baseball bat is about $600,000 ... and just your base house is $1.2 million ... alot of people are buying out west a larger house for about $650,000 but that is 45 minutes away .. plus alot of traffic... on the news the other day - the lady was saying those $650,000 places sell in less than a week.

dc CB 21:31 GMT October 9, 2014
Who buy an ice-ceam with a credit card
Reply   
daddy...is it safe?

Dairy Queen Says Data Breached at Stores

Livingston nh 21:22 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

SF, SYD, ACC - what are the expectations re: rate cuts - will RBA hope for further AUD weakness or move policy?// all the silly global slowing, China worry and employment will this push politics of RBA??

GVI Forex john 21:16 GMT October 9, 2014
CALENDAR-- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


October 9, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, October 10. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB- Trade, CA- Employment

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: GB- Trade
  • North America: CA- Employment, US- Import Prices, COT


GVI Forex john 21:09 GMT October 9, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   
Selected daily USD & EUR Pivots. Complete Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





dc CB 20:54 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

Kevin, Kevin...this is your intern....Kevin bEEEP ...Kevin is Busy leave a msg.

Kevin Kevin Kevin
this is your intern...you need to come back to the office...IT Broke 1918.

You said to call if it did.

Kevin Kevin, this is Kloeee. Please call, we don't know which button to press.

GVI Forex john 20:52 GMT October 9, 2014
CALENDAR: Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   

FRIDAY
08:30 A GB  Trade key industrial measure
12:30 A CA Employment key economic metric


Livingston nh 20:50 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

GVI - you still have Raven's keyboard??

dc CB 20:49 GMT October 9, 2014
FM
Reply   
WTI Crude 8406

anothe brilliant trade

GVI Forex 20:46 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

Monday is a holiday in Canada and Japan as well.

dc CB 20:42 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

Monday in the US---Columbus Day...Bank Holiday---basically Bond Mkt Cash shut

who woz dat guy anyway

sd sf 20:35 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

EUR - saw selling back down through 35-36 after the second failure of the high during the session .. then squaring around 86 - and now has gone long @83

this whole market just shows you that despite what appeared good volume the market really couldn't follow through any higher than it did -- which also illustrates how zero sum trading tends to be .. a profit one day can turn into a loss the following day if your not careful.

GBP - had some selling @33 - but just closed manually now - and no positions there.

I hate to say it again today because it is a bit like a broken record - but here in Asia - $YEN will be the key to see how things are going to trade... every currency seems driven by $yen expectations.

As far as AUD goes -- been a wild ride really .. most locally see more of the risks to it - than the offshore people who seem to prefer it too other much weaker economies.

dc CB 20:34 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

Eric Scott Hunsader @nanexllc

Today will be the 4th most active ever (in terms of market data - quotes trades, etc)
3:54 PM - 9 Oct 2014
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

after the quake
the tsunami?

GVI Forex john 20:32 GMT October 9, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk Off

20:25 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
U.S. markets have closed in a clear  RISK-OFF posture as stocks remained weak after turned the post-Fed Minutes rally fizzled. It could be that the quarterly earnings season in the U.S  has sent many to the sidelines. The EURUSD traded below its 1.2698 pivot all afternoon.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. Peripheral bond yields are down.The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is steady.   U.S.10-yr yield is lower. The Psychological focus has shifted lower to 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. The Nikkei was down. Bourses in Europe ending mostly lower. U.S. shares are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


dc CB 20:18 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

nh
I daresay most have never experienced a Fed tightening

he hasn't even experienced a market crash ... while not a Econ Student.

KH sig in the Rutgers 2005 YearBook: "hey, it's not my money"

Livingston nh 20:07 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

red -- my best slinking days pre-date Eve biting the Apple -- I do a great shuffle tho

CB - in the same vein I note the link w/ the smiling faces employed at the Fed lacked even a modest trace of gray - I daresay most have never experienced a Fed tightening (perhaps they never will)

GVI Forex john 20:02 GMT October 9, 2014
RISK-Off Trading Develops in North American Markets as Stocks Fall Again

DJIA -333
S&P -41
10-yr 2.336%

dc CB 20:02 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

"but it sez here: At 3:30 PM Press The Buy Button. It usta work?"

ah, it's not like it usta be

GVI Forex john 19:54 GMT October 9, 2014
RISK-Off Trading Develops in North American Markets as Stocks Fall Again

Equities going out weak.EURUSD holding below its pivot point.

dc CB 19:53 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

Heck of a job Kevin

Da Man (boy)

Mtl JP 19:53 GMT October 9, 2014
FED Yakker

Willams: Fed can scrap guidance once policy more normal
-
hmm... there are levels of normal ?

GVI Forex john 19:44 GMT October 9, 2014
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

tokyo ginko 19:43 GMT October 9, 2014
coming next

medium term..

Mtl JP 19:35 GMT October 9, 2014
coming next

in the next 25 minutes ginko ?

tokyo ginko 19:33 GMT October 9, 2014
coming next

ranging bull wants to see 2000..!

dc CB 19:15 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

yes Virginia there really is a PPT (NYFED trading room and their Hedge Fund surrogate Citadel.

The move to watch it a signifcant take out of 1918 on the EMINI...the fav trad vehicle.

if it does then it may tag and bounce off 1914....
Dec Futures

london red 19:13 GMT October 9, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

nh, looking at it v crudely, stox are where they were pre minutes. bonds are well up.

Livingston nh 19:11 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

JP - the beauty of leverage (margin) - you can't always sell what you want But you must always sell when you need

london red 19:10 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

nh, bears saving pocket money for friday. reckon slinking off early today you wont miss anything.

Livingston nh 19:09 GMT October 9, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

John - curious that w/ a 300 pt drop in DOW there is no "flight to safety" reaction in treasurys -- see what the Nikkei does with this

Mtl JP 19:09 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

pray tell why "continued fall in crude oil is also unsettling"

in the past it was alleged that lower energy was like a tax break leaving more money in folks pockets to spend .

Livingston nh 19:02 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

one quick note re: 1925 - I think if we get there again today it won't be support - that's down at the 200 dma (~1905) // BUT maybe there really is a PPT

NY JM 19:01 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

Just came back from a meeting and not sure if it is bonds or stocks leading but the latter is unsettling the equity market. Weak European economy is a factor and continued fall in crude oil is also unsettling.

FX market is back to not being sure how to react so just going into a bunker after not following through on o/n moves.

dc CB 18:47 GMT October 9, 2014
FED Yakker

if he fails, just one more tick in the column that sez: they are losing (have lost) control.

Livingston nh 18:45 GMT October 9, 2014
FED Yakker

cb - like some horses I've bet MR. VIX guy might be making his move too soon

london red 18:42 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

10yr futs building hourly shs with neck at august high 126.37. big day tomorrow. follow thru 126 or less, failure 127. big friday coming up.
s&p triple bottom but bit of a decending triangle look to it as well. they can do 1965/70 one more time and then youd be pretty confident of 1925/8 bust and 1900 same day.

dc CB 18:39 GMT October 9, 2014
FED Yakker



will Kevin Henry - NYFED's Vix Specialist Extraordinaire(hewrote papers on it), come to the rescue with a Patented VIX SMASH

in progress as I post

Mtl JP 18:26 GMT October 9, 2014
FED Yakker

Fischer: U.S. can grow even if rest of world is slow

SaaR KaL 18:25 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

EURCAD
Not easy to trade

			
Exp High Exp Low Err
Daily 1.4182 1.4089 0.0039

Monthly 1.4176 1.4076


Year Levels 1.5423 1.4302
...Just not sure...right?

GVI Forex Blog 18:20 GMT October 9, 2014
RISK-Off Trading Develops in North American Markets as Stocks Fall Again
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB- Trade, CA- Employment

U.K. trade and Canadian employment data will be the featured releases on Friday.. U.S. Initial Weekly Jobless Claims remained.just below the 300K level that some see as the "frictional" lows for this data series. The Bank of England kept its monetary policy steady as widely expected.

RISK-Off Trading Develops in North American Markets as Stocks Fall Again

SaaR KaL 18:19 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

DJI

			
Exp High Exp Low Err
Daily 17,095.2715 16,830.5765 123.0167

Monthly 17,179.0759 16,966.4443


Year Levels 17,528.1779 15,833.7348

SaaR KaL 18:17 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

tsla

		
Exp High Exp Low
Daily 264.6224 259.9082

Monthly 276.3591 268.9157


Year Levels 311.0737 148.7178
===
aapl..Dangerous
		
Exp High Exp Low
Daily 100.3844 99.2800

Monthly 103.7950 101.9131


Year Levels 99.9399 76.3994

Mtl JP 18:10 GMT October 9, 2014
FED Yakker

20 minutes before stock markets close voting dove in 2015 Williams will have a chance to "correct" Bullard's assertions

SaaR KaL 18:09 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

Gold Bears be careful

			
Exp High Exp Low Err
Daily 1,218.8232 1,204.2261 8.6545

Monthly 1,252.0987 1,236.7102


Year Levels 1,399.0699 1,196.3119

SaaR KaL 18:06 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

NZDUSD

			
Exp High Exp Low Err
Daily 0.7883 0.7782 0.0032

Monthly 0.8103 0.8013


Year Levels 0.8848 0.8286
===
NDX (Spooky)

			
Exp High Exp Low Err
Daily 4,035.3929 3,945.8929 23.2468

Monthly 4,143.4856 4,091.1929


Year Levels 4,044.6692 3,517.5636

Paris ib 18:06 GMT October 9, 2014
FED Yakker

Now that made me laugh !!

Paris ib 18:03 GMT October 9, 2014
Inflationary Draghi

:-))

SaaR KaL 18:01 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

I am sure you guys will like this;

cable

			
Exp High Exp Low Err
Daily 1.6144 1.6040 0.0037

Monthly 1.6324 1.6218


Year Levels 1.7337 1.6280
==
			
Exp High Exp Low Err
Daily 108.7831 107.7614 0.3930

Monthly 107.9682 107.1399


Year Levels 108.6143 97.9969
==
USDCAD
			
Exp High Exp Low Err
Daily 1.1193 1.1087 0.0020

Monthly 1.1092 1.1005


Year Levels 1.1228 1.0654
==
AUDUSD
			
Exp High Exp Low Err
Daily 0.8843 0.8745 0.0030

Monthly 0.9042 0.8954


Year Levels 0.9717 0.8886

SaaR KaL 17:57 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

Red/
I guess you are right
I wrote this program that will simplify everything
Expected for the month...if the pair lower or near...then can use the daily...that way the bigger wave is clear so we can act on daily...the other..is yearly....(Why I am saying there could be a rally for EURUSD)
Err= Error for the daily estimate
can go lower then Expected low by 2 times
so Long at 1.2623 today with marginal entry with every 35 pips...you see what i am saying?

			
Exp High Exp Low Err
Daily 1.2727 1.2623 0.0035

Monthly 1.2826 1.2740


Year Levels 1.3898 1.3307

Mtl JP 17:55 GMT October 9, 2014
FED Yakker
Reply   
“When there is a mismatch between what the central bank is thinking and the market is thinking, that sometimes doesn’t end well, because there can be a surprise later on,” Bullard

Mtl JP 17:50 GMT October 9, 2014
Inflationary Draghi

ib here is a potential heartwarmer for ya

Wells Fargo employee says he emailed CEO to create awareness

...“It is time that we ask, no, it is time that we demand to be rightfully compensated for the hard work that we accomplish, and for the great part we all have played in the success of this company.” ... /..

dc CB 17:45 GMT October 9, 2014
Meet Edward Quince
Reply   
Edward Quince was arguably the most powerful person in the world in the fall of 2008, with the fate of financial markets resting on his high-stakes decisions.

It turns out he didn’t actually exist.

the Secret Federal Reserve Chairman in 2008

Paris ib 17:39 GMT October 9, 2014
coming next

:-)

tokyo ginko 17:37 GMT October 9, 2014
coming next

here it comes!

Livingston nh 17:35 GMT October 9, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Bond guys are so fickle - yields backing up towards 3.07 - so maybe we get another turnaround in follow the leader

GVI Forex john 17:32 GMT October 9, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

imho it looks to me like EURUSD would like to trade lower (sub-1.2698 pivot), but it can't break unless equities recover.

One of my theories HAS got to work! lol

Livingston nh 17:24 GMT October 9, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On

30 yr yield falls near lo of the day again - stox bounce - currencies pop --- all's good in the world

GVI Forex john 17:04 GMT October 9, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On

30-yr 3.074%
bid-to-cover 2.40 vs. 2.67

Paris ib 17:00 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back

Yeah I know. And high fives all round in some backroom.

dc CB 16:57 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back

Paris ib 16:45 GMT

March 9 2009 the SnP tagged 666... it was the low of the Big Crash.

Paris ib 16:51 GMT October 9, 2014
coming next

You've called it pretty good so far ginko. Let's see how this goes. I've got an open mind on this one.

tokyo ginko 16:50 GMT October 9, 2014
coming next

renter at 1928...still see a strong close for the week
GT!

Paris ib 16:49 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back

We'll deal with that when it takes off. Or is it enough that it gets lots of media noise? Does that count? Maybe it's the only thing that counts. Let's all cower. Or something. F..k em. I'm not participating.

Mtl JP 16:47 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back

so if Ebola takes off in a way to match-justify the 160K hazmat suit purchase (and the subsequebt 50% stock price-pop), what other new trade opps will that incubate?

Paris ib 16:45 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back

I like a little consistency in these things. Can't they go for 7? A multiple of one of these magic numbers? I don't know... 13? 33? Ya know one of those numbers that let's you know who's behind. 12 plus 1. 32 plus 1. They are the numbers that come up all the time in those 'spontaneous' shooting massacres that happen all the time in the United States. Then all the people 'in the know' can point the finger at the Vatica, the Masons, the Illuminati or whatever group is flavour of the moment.

dc CB 16:41 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back

speaking of ghoulish humor: Nanex tweet:

Eric Scott Hunsader ‏@nanexllc

In the last 20 minutes, someone has placed/canceled a 666 contract order in eMini 26 times $ES_F



Paris ib 16:41 GMT October 9, 2014
Battle of the Doves
Reply   
Race to the bottom? Good grief. Pick your dove, back your currency. Lots of laughs all round. :-))

Doves Cry

GVI Forex john 16:33 GMT October 9, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On

10-yr 2.325%

Livingston nh 16:31 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back



I mentioned yesterday the 2007 top - gyrations like the present daily moves are usually not healthy

I submit a chart of 2007 (june to dec)

dc CB 16:30 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back

nh
3.06 and change is still pretty good for a 30 -cause rates have no where to go but up (sarc)

whot is we get another reversal in the SnP, an outside day Down.
If the Headliner Algos are fuk%^d, maybe some good old fashioned Technical/Fundamental trading will start to work again.

london red 16:26 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back

s&p today trendline is at 1928 (futs 1921). tripple bottom 1925 (18)

10 year. massive wick on daily candle. set up similar to august high.

dc CB 16:22 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back

Has Da FED and Da Boys lost control, lost the mojo to quietly stairstep higher each day.

All the CBs are into Stox and Index Future trading on a daily basis. As noted the CME gives them special rates on trades for "providing liquidity".

EKG heartattack

Livingston nh 16:20 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back

cb - maybe the auction is the trigger for stox back to the rate reality -- it will be tough for stox to push to yesterday's low w/o a trigger

dc CB 16:09 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back



Hazmat-suit maker

the ghoul trade

30Year for a while this AM was under 3.05. Does it have a shot at it again before the auction is done...one more really good push down on STOX might do the trick.

london red 16:06 GMT October 9, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On

seuro sell rebound to 86 stop over fig. see what happens at 50.

GVI Forex john 16:02 GMT October 9, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk Off

16:00 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Late in Europe, markets have moved into a clear  RISK-OFF posture as equities turned lower after the post-Fed Minutes rally did not take hold. It could be that the quarterly earnings season in the U.S. is sending many to the sidelines. The EURUSD is pivoting 1.2700. A higher EURUSD is usually RISK-OFF.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. Peripheral bond yields are down.The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is steady.   U.S.10-yr yield is lower. The Psychological focus has shifted lower to 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. The Nikkei was down. Bourses in Europe ending mostly lower. U.S. shares are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


london red 16:01 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back

gvi, euro only rallying by default. when the music stops it will return to form. lt downtrend.

Livingston nh 15:57 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back

John - it's still interest rates - STOX will go down as they adjust to higher rates and the higher rates will push the USD higher -- QE ends in a couple of weeks and money should begin to move again // AQR in EU will be next event

Paris ib 15:56 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back

Yeah, buy the EUR/USD dip.

What is happening in the U.S.? Looks weird. All these new wars, war mongering, the ebola b.ullshit (sorry but I don't believe the big emergency stuff).... and then we have these statistics. Which, pardon me, look fake. This unimpressive FED.... what is actually happening?

Recently I have been stunned to find out how many projects are stalled in my area for purely bureaucratic reasons.... it makes me question the strength of underlying demand which looks very strong in the real world. Though business is suffering as things are held back by the faceless men and women in government offices.

Mtl JP 15:52 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back

but Hazmat-suit maker shares rally 50% (allegedly on Ebola fears)

GVI Forex 15:51 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back

Its hard to imagine hoew EURUSD can trade lower if U.S. shares continue to slide.

Ideas?

Paris ib 15:49 GMT October 9, 2014
Fischer
Reply   
Europe moving very quickly: banking union etc. and every target has been met and no-one left the Euro and more countries joined. Nothing like stating the FACTS.

Paris ib 15:48 GMT October 9, 2014
U.S. stocks give it all back
Reply   
So much for the bounce.

Paris ib 15:41 GMT October 9, 2014
Inflationary Draghi

Seriously, aren't these people a laughing stock yet?

GVI Forex john 15:39 GMT October 9, 2014
Inflationary Draghi

Draghi: same old statement "willing to do more if needed".

Paris ib 15:36 GMT October 9, 2014
Inflationary Draghi

I have no illusions. The whole thing is a sham. The fact that he has the gaul to suggest he is working in the interests of the European people is just vomit making. Or laughable. Depends on your temperament I suppose.

Mtl JP 15:35 GMT October 9, 2014
Inflationary Draghi

ib I submit that ECB is NOT doing anything "for the good of the European people". If you believe that you are forgetting the mountains of bad debt and interest that sits in financial institutions, either unmarked-to-market or simply thru some legalese accounting infractions unrecognized.

Central bankers have only one interest: that of banking / financial system. Nothing else matters to them. Not even your life.

Paris ib 15:30 GMT October 9, 2014
The pointlessness of interest rates

Correction: young businessmen. The idea that banks give credit to young businessmen is just laughable. Mum and Dad give credit otherwise they get by without any.

Paris ib 15:28 GMT October 9, 2014
The pointlessness of interest rates
Reply   
Yeah, yeah, yeah... in Italy it can take 3 years or more to get a building approval for a small house. So many projects are currently 'on hold' and the bureaucrats just keep raising the bar. The most recent one is anti earthquake provisions (already law) which have to get the say so of regional governments. A rubber stamp essentially. That takes six months. They brought the rubber stamp thing in and made it applicable even to buildings already under construction. Result: works stopped, people out of work. Nothing to do with credit. Your businessmen simply do not get credit from banks. Never have. Never will. If they took the brakes off in Italy there would be an economic boom. Meanwhile they talk interest rates. Please.

Paris ib 15:22 GMT October 9, 2014
Inflationary Draghi
Reply   
Draghi now thinks the ECB has to guarantee rising prices in Europe for the good of the European people!! Prices of just about everything have gone up (except wages) but till they start actually accounting for those price rises (and nobody can make them do that) then the ECB policy is going to remain inflationary. Oh lucky us !! So Central Banks are trying to OUT dove each other. That's a lot of doves out there. Pick your dove. At this point I'm not sure central banks are in control of much any more. All out of bullets.

Paris ib 15:17 GMT October 9, 2014
coming next

I think u may be onto something on stocks. :-)

GVI Forex john 15:16 GMT October 9, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

thru 1.2698 pivot changes tone of EURUSD to NEGATIVE. A cluster of support levels have been breached.
Support distant
S1 1.2646
S2 1.2572

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:13 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

1.2691 trades... as per my earlier chart. An assist goes to red for the Draghi heads up.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:07 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

This sent the EUR lower -nothing new but a reminder of the QE risk

11:00 (EU) ECB's Draghi: Expecting banking credit to pick up soon; reiterates committed to additional measures by the ECB if needed

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex john 15:06 GMT October 9, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD just touched is pivot At 1.2698.

germany eurotrader 15:02 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

red, Tku vm for that alert

london red 14:53 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

draghi and fischer up shortly
http://www.brookings.edu/events/2014/10/09-ecb-eurozone-mario-draghi

london red 14:45 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

kal theres no need to jump the gun. below 12571 will be a big sign that low is under threat again. so for now ride the rebound while it lasts, plenty of time to sell it when the move breaks down.

GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT October 9, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)
Reply   



ALERT
105 vs. 105 exp vs. +113 prev.

EIA Press Release




TTN: Live News S

SaaR KaL 14:29 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

I loss money mostly in reversals

I think EURUSD is north folks

GVI Forex 14:18 GMT October 9, 2014
IMF Wish List
Reply   
10:00 (EU) IMF's Lagarde: ECB must be willing to do more, including sovereign asset purchases; US and Germany need to boost infrastructure investment
- BoJ needs to ease more if inflation or inflation expectations reverse
- Financial excesses are evident in emerging markets like China
- Without more reform, world economy could get stuck with mediocre growth, higher vulnerability

- Source TradeTheNews.com

london red 14:14 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

not guite got there has it. normally breakout levels (12685) get tested. still mario will no doubt come to bears rescue. i cant see him being bullish. so we should get the test.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:02 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

Low so far 1.2703...

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT October 9, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Wholesale Inventories August 2014
Reply   



ALERT
+0.70% vs +0.30% exp vs +0.20% (r +0.30%) pre


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:21 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades



EURUSD 1.2691 at risk but 1.2710 needs to give way?

GVI Forex john 13:12 GMT October 9, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

Steve Liesman made an interesting comment yesterday. Every once in a while he is insightful when his political bias gets out of the way. He said that the Fed Minutes give you a good sense of the general bias of the FOMC. The hawks at the Fed often give the markets a distorted view of the board.

Bottom-line this is a very dovish board and will be even more dovish in the new year.

The ECB is making interesting changes to its structure next year. One of the changes is that the voting members will be rotating on and off along the lines of the Fed. A key difference is that the rotation will be on a perpetual (staggered) three month basis, so it will change at every meeting, also the number meetings will be reduced to eight a year from twelve.

SaaR KaL 13:10 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

Yes Red...I see that 1.2640 too...Thanks

I placed longs at 1.2640 to 1.2620
Cable longs at 1.6040

Short NDX
tgt 3940

Livingston nh 12:57 GMT October 9, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

Extra dose of Fed yakkers today - Fischer and Draghi together in DC -- might be a good day to put the Aussie back on the barbie - and a little more yen sushi

GVI Forex john 12:45 GMT October 9, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

nh- lol

london red 12:42 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

dec 10yr. todays low is contract high reached summer. any pullback below there becomes severe. 126.37.

Livingston nh 12:42 GMT October 9, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

John - according to the Fed it's a FICTIONAL low -

GVI Forex john 12:40 GMT October 9, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims reaching frictional lows...




Click on chart for over ten-year history



PRESS RELEASE: U.S. Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims

SaaR KaL 12:34 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

EURUSD since that 1.2500 a week ago
been doing higher high Everyday

GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT October 9, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
Initial Claims (000)
287K vs. 295K exp. vs. 287K (r 288 K) prev.
Continued Claims (mln)
2.384 vs. n/a exp. vs. 2.398 (r 2.402) prev.
Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 12:21 GMT October 9, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On

yen. supp becomes res now at 75. if can get thru here than 10790/108 in play. if not then trendline retest risk.

london red 12:18 GMT October 9, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On

looking to sell euro on rebound from 50 to 65/75 region. i may not get the chance. if i d ont i shall continue to wait for 127/12686.

GVI Forex john 12:05 GMT October 9, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On

10-yr 2.280% its all starting early again.

GVI Forex john 12:01 GMT October 9, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

We are headed into U.S. trade again with the EURUSD trading roughly at its 1.2774 20-day moving average. We've noted in our weekly COT reports that the 20-day more than any other statistic is critical to the tone of the market. R1 1.2772.

R2: 1.2824
R1: 1.2772

S1: 1.2646
S2: 1.2572

london red 11:54 GMT October 9, 2014
coming next

re 10yr. this 6 tests of range in total, 3 up 3 dwn. it has been a year of fading. we are pretty much at top end of range. the dollar references have unsettled the dollar but i dont take it should be taken as a signal that the believe the dollar is too high, simply managing it so it doesnt spiral higher too quickly.
cad. dead sideways overnight. 11070 is downside lvl and opens up further losses to 110/10985. but jobs friday. if figures as f/c or weak then 11160/75 test by friday close. iffy or average data has never helped the pair and often it gets overdone to the topside.

GVI Forex john 11:53 GMT October 9, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   
UPDATED: See Chart Point tables for complete data.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:31 GMT October 9, 2014
Another Trading Secret Revealed: The Monday Effect It Works!
Reply   


The Monday Effect is one of my favorite forex trading setups that I am on the lookout for each week and when it plays out as it did this week, it can produce a powerful move. It is not a term you will find in a forex trading course as it is a pattern I discovered on my own. I published it in an article last week, Another Forex Trading Secret Revealed: The Monday Effect, and followed up this week with the setup in my Forex Trading Outlook for the Week Ahead video update. This has worked out like a textbook case, including the timing that I will illustrate in this article...

Another Trading Secret Revealed: The Monday Effect – It Works!

Mtl JP 11:31 GMT October 9, 2014
coming next

I beg to differ about 10-yr yield up

tokyo ginko 11:21 GMT October 9, 2014
coming next
Reply   
equities up
bond down..10yr yield up
USD up..aud down, usdjpy back test 109, eurusd/ gbpusd range

SaaR KaL 11:20 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

brb around us open

SaaR KaL 11:18 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

USDCHF wants 0.8600 area next year folks

london red 11:08 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

euro. asia and london didnt sell so it got moved higher to fibs at 12783/87. i was short there but have covered after too many frustrations off 50. i still think there room for a move to 127/12685 but either way think we have to see 12815/65.
yen. trendline off 2013 peaks at 107.57. 6 yards goes ex for remainder of week at 10750.

GVI Forex john 11:02 GMT October 9, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: October 2014 Bank of England Policy Decision
Reply   





-- NEWS ALERT --

Policy Unchanged (repo rate 0.50%)
Asset Purchases unch @ GBP 375 bln v. GBP 375 bn


Bank of England




TTN: Live News Special Offer

Paris ib 10:34 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

But I don't think the AUD will perform well. So this is selective. Sell the AngloSaxons vs the rest.

Paris ib 10:32 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

Yes. We agree.

SaaR KaL 10:29 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

IB/
happy here that we agree...what they want Vs. The 98% of the Market sees ----> is not an issue for us...LOL
I think you agree...right?

SaaR KaL 10:28 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

EURUSD if no 1.2700 today or Lower for EURUSD ----> Rally north
1.38 is possible

Paris ib 10:27 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

No I'm not bullish USD. They got scared. They don't want any further appreciation. Speculative market is still long USDs.... unwinds coming. Or rather currently a work in progress... you might have noticed? :-))

SaaR KaL 10:25 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

Red/
What do think?
You bearish USD?...you around?

SaaR KaL 10:23 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

IB/
Does that mean you are bullish USD?

Paris ib 10:18 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

SaaR KaL 10:11 GMT 10/09/2014 - My Profile
Short the USD in General

The powers that be have given up on the idea that a strong dollar will solve their problems. How b.loody unsurprising that it's not the silver bullet they were hoping for. Trouble is that the powers that be are so completely clueless and confused. Morons the lot of them. But for now we unwind the whole 'dollar is just going to get stronger' idea. :-))

GVI Forex Blog 10:11 GMT October 9, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
USD saw some of its recent rally diminish after what was perceived as dovish FOMC minutes. Several members expressed concerns that the appreciation of USD would have a negative impact on exports and inflation

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Perceived dovish FOMC minutes continued to aid risk appetite in session; USD maintains soft tone

SaaR KaL 10:11 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

Giving up on reversal Models...to tell exactly where they will reverse ( I Just can not do it!!)
I ran out of mathematics here
I know a small thing though...these are dangerous time for many pairs...Trust me...can day Cable but on the long side only...same goes to audusd, nzdusd...all majors
Short the USD in General

GVI Forex Blog 09:54 GMT October 9, 2014
Tentative RISK-ON Trade Heading Into U.S. Economic Calendar Has Picked Up
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB- Bank of England, US- Weekly Jobless, 30-yr

The tone of the Fed's latest meeting Minutes was more dovish than the markets were expecting and turned the tone of stock market2. Equities spiked higher on the release. Australia employment data saw an outsized gain in jobs in August revised out and then the remaining advance negated by a September fall.

Tentative RISK-ON Trade Heading Into U.S. Economic Calendar Has Picked Up

GVI Forex john 09:39 GMT October 9, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On
Reply   
Early in Europe, markets are in a mixed  RISK-ON posture heading into the U.S. session. Our focus again is on equity markets following the trend reversal yesterday afternoon following the much more dovish than expected Fed Minutes The EURUSD is holding above 1.2700. A higher EURUSD is usually RISK-OFF, so something has got to give.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower. The 10-yr bund is 0.888% -0.903% -3.0 bp. Peripheral bond yields are down.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.318% -1.6 bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.318%, -1.6 bp.The Psychological focus has shifted lower to 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. The Nikkei was down. Bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. share futures are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


GVI Forex john 09:15 GMT October 9, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Australia Employment September 2014



EARLIER: Outsized August Employment gain revised down to something more reasonable and neutralized by September fall. Unemployment rate net steady.

London Chris 09:12 GMT October 9, 2014
EURUSD
Reply   
1.28 defended?

GVI Forex john 09:03 GMT October 9, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Australia Employment September 2014
Reply   




-- EARLIER NEWS --

Employment: -29.7 vs. -30.0K exp. vs. +121.0K (r +32.1 ) prev.
Rate: 6.10% vs. 6.20% exp. vs. 6.10% (r 6.00% ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

abs,gov.au


GVI Forex john 08:53 GMT October 9, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: German Trade August 2014
Reply   
BREAKING NEWS: German Trade August 2014





Earlier NEWS ALERT

14.1 vs. 17.7 exp. vs. 22.2 prev. rev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

tokyo ginko 07:38 GMT October 9, 2014
adventurous?
Reply   
snp sees 2000...GT !

SaaR KaL 07:31 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

Red/...Reversals get confusing (You know that well)

I am going Long term
IMO ...still intra month Short...But now I am flat
Longer term for the year
196.221 151.964
===
Guys... I would not be surprised to see NZDUSD at .9200 next year

USDCHF at 0.88
there is a bigger wave
IMO Do not Intraday trade...will be messy

nw kw 07:06 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

KaL - support for gbp/jpy you have one in mind, in at 174.50 tks

nw kw 07:02 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades

longer term no not with cheap oil /gbp soft shorting it to

Paris ib 06:47 GMT October 9, 2014
Not a USD bear in sight

Yes JP... no surprise there. What makes me laugh is the change of narrative. First, they went for a strong dollar, hoping that that would encourage capital inflows. That didn't work. The USD went up, making the U.S. less internationally competitive... and damaging industry and jobs. Yields went up. So no win. Now it's about the damage a strong USD does. Painting by numbers by the people in charge. :-)

SaaR KaL 06:11 GMT October 9, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Over all IMO USD reversal is in menu ...big time
I suggest small and longer term folks

GVI Forex Blog 04:42 GMT October 9, 2014 Reply   
(AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -29.7K (largest decline since Apr 2011) V -30.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.1% (highest since July 2003) V 6.2%E; PARTICIPATION RATE 64.5% (lowest since Mar 2006) V

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Volatile Australia Jobs show biggest monthly drop since 2011; PBoC steps up liquidity injection ***Economic Data*** - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 04:10 GMT October 9, 2014 Reply   
A dovish FOMC Minutes, concerned with the strength of growth, set fire on the markets as

Morning Briefing : 09-Oct-2014 -0410 GMT

HK [email protected] 03:58 GMT October 9, 2014
How Obama's broken promises have put America in danger...



The most successful project of Obama, is to break the relations between Russia and the US; The two super powers who can defeat the fanatic Islam. This will help the fanatic Muslim take over the Western Civilization.

Probably observing whites fighting each other is also very pleasurable for him.

Let's hope that the voice of reason will take over, and a comeback of the Crusaders will happen, because the world is not that stupid to allow these things to happen.

sd sf 03:34 GMT October 9, 2014
Not a USD bear in sight

EUR - I'm not sure what it is seeing - but both the Breakout and Range Bots selling out of Eur @42 ... so something has triggered there.

sd sf 03:16 GMT October 9, 2014
Not a USD bear in sight

I guess what I am trying to say is that - $yen needs to pressure -- hold or break 107.80 to bring more vol/direction into the market.

sd sf 03:06 GMT October 9, 2014
Not a USD bear in sight

it appears that the movements aren't bigger because with the Stock Markets up -- $yen is having a tough time to break the lows.

and this week $yen has had a pretty big influence on the other pairs.

dc CB 02:40 GMT October 9, 2014
Not a USD bear in sight

5min
Da Ramp

SPY chart

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:57 GMT October 9, 2014
AceTrader Oct 9: Intra-Day News and Views(USD/JPY)
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

08 Oct 2014

USD/JPY - ......comments by BOJ GOV Kuroda who is attending World Bank & G20 n is speaking at The Economic Club of NY said QQE has been producing intended effects:
-virtuous cycle of spending has been operating steadily due to qqe
-japan's economy has been on path suggesting its 2 percent price stability target will be achieved as expected
-japan's economy expected to continue its recovery, weathering the temporary slowdown in economic growth due to the consumption tax hike
-japan's economy has been on path suggesting its 2 percent price stability target will be achieved as expected
-japan's economy is expected to continue its recovery, weathering the temporary slowdown in economic growth due to the consumption tax hike
-there is almost no slack in japan's labor market, spare capacity in firms and labor market is zero
-output gap and inflation expectations are expected to continue improving
-we need to raise inflation rates and inflation expectations further toward 2 percent and thus we are only halfway there
-boj will make adjustments without hesitation if outlook changes due to manifestation of risk factors
- boj's commitment is "result oriented," we will continue with qqe to achieve price target and make adjustments if necessary
-japan's potential growth rate is estimated to be around 0.5 percent
-many options are available to ramp up easing if needed

sd sf 00:35 GMT October 9, 2014
Not a USD bear in sight

EUR - range bots coming in buying @22/23


Syd 00:26 GMT October 9, 2014
How Obama's broken promises have put America in danger...
Reply   
If you’re President of the United States, and therefore unofficial Leader of the Free World, then your most important job every day is to make everyone feel calm and secure even as chaos reigns

Really, Mr President? You think what we all need to hear that from you right now is that the whole planet’s going to hell in a handcart? YOU’RE the guy who’s supposed to be controlling it!

GVI Forex Blog 00:24 GMT October 9, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar index falls to lowest in two weeks

* Fed minutes prompt markets to rethink rate hike bets

* Aussie dollar eyes local employment data

FOREX-Dollar bulls rounded up by Fed minutes, Aussie eyes jobs data

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:21 GMT October 9, 2014
Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

1.2773 = 20 day mva

Ahead of that is 1.2760-65

Stops run above 1.2750 but did not go far enough

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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