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Forex Forum Archive for 10/13/2014

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sd sf 23:13 GMT October 13, 2014
Morning

I don't have a tradeable view on Gold at these levels.

... overall I just don't see why you would be short at the moment though.

NY BOB 23:02 GMT October 13, 2014
Morning

sf: your view on gold please..

sd sf 22:49 GMT October 13, 2014
Morning

NH - I agree with your sentiments

and it is the whole reason I got into automating my trading strategies - because honestly I just want to trade - and not be concerned with the BS in between.

** everything I post is my own work/positions - so read into that what you will .. I do feel a lot of such strategies are based on similar things .. so take my levels for what they are worth -- free.

sd sf 22:44 GMT October 13, 2014
Morning

GBP

range strategies have prevailed this morning unlike in eurusd

its all bids 65 67 68 70 to get out of the selling on the rally.

Breakout won't come into play until above 25.

I have no thoughts on this one honestly - wait for the London Guys to come in.

Livingston nh 22:42 GMT October 13, 2014
Morning

EUR is a fkin clown show - there is nothing behind the curtain -- it isn't a currency - it is a trade zone scrip

sd sf 22:38 GMT October 13, 2014
Morning

YEN

basically the bot strategy here is to buy 106.75-85 106.50 106.40 with stops under 106.30 and sell rallies to 107.15-20

so it is going to be back and forward in this one in a choppy fashion unless stocks or something else happens to make it move more one way.

Livingston nh 22:34 GMT October 13, 2014
I Hate Forex Hedging and So Should You

Agree because the whole idea of hedging is a lie -- use stops, use stops and reverse // there are markets where you can hedge but there are markets where you say why bother

sd sf 22:20 GMT October 13, 2014
Morning
Reply   
EUR

range trades all taken out basically and those won't redraw new ranges till later on.

breakout strategies bought @19 and 33 they have targets 1.2820-30 and stops around 1.2707-08 at moment.

I think if your bullish USD - then try to fade a move to 50-55 with stops above the high looking for the mkt to fall back into a range pattern and get back down to 00-10 area.

If your bearish USD then you have to buy dips looking for the low to be around 17-22 area.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 21:37 GMT October 13, 2014
I Hate Forex Hedging and So Should You
Reply   

Hate is a word I rarely use but I Hate Hedging. I have written about this before but each time I get a question asking what to do with a hedged losing trade, I feel compelled to write about it again. I hate forex hedging and I will tell you why. Not only does it cloud a trader’s judgment as his/her focus is more on trading out of the hedge rather than trading the market with an objective mind. It is most times an excuse not to accept a loss and it can lead to even greater losses. This is an article all traders should read.

I Hate Forex Hedging and So Should You

Livingston nh 21:04 GMT October 13, 2014
Layup

Once the FI moves - yen moves big time // there is no comparative advantage just yield

GVI Forex john 20:58 GMT October 13, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   

Selected daily USD & EUR Pivots. Complete Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





london red 20:34 GMT October 13, 2014
Layup

yen. stops under 75. but 38.2 at 64. we did 23.6 to 38.2 (almost not there yet) we no notable rebound. you know what to do here folks.
s&p. 1846 (40 futs). then i buy calls. but im likely to be wrong. last time i bought calls it was the 1895 and i was spot on. law of averages.

Paris ib 19:58 GMT October 13, 2014
Layup

Let em try.

Livingston nh 19:58 GMT October 13, 2014
Layup

Bought 1890 calls - I'm bearish but it is about trading

dc CB 19:51 GMT October 13, 2014
Layup

ib
just saying that A Ton of "protection" has and is being sold at a very rich premium and with the added juice of $bill for a couple of days, the sellers of that protection will be trying to make it worthless.

Paris ib 19:47 GMT October 13, 2014
Layup

CB u believe in the omnipotence of the Central Banks. I don't. Maybe those 666 contracts were morse code. Soros will be happy.

dc CB 19:45 GMT October 13, 2014
Layup

next target

ib
3 Day of POMO coming, and OPEX...

as I post this it's down to 1873

Emini

Livingston nh 19:41 GMT October 13, 2014
Layup

Well CB, at least we're not alone today

Paris ib 19:38 GMT October 13, 2014
Margin Calls
Reply   
Market is:
Long Stocks - especially in the U.S.
Long USD/JPY
Short EUR/USD

and margin calls are coming in.
Stand by for the melt down.

Livingston nh 19:32 GMT October 13, 2014
Layup
Reply   
USD/JPY -- some folks can't hit a foul shot but nobody should choke a layup -- 115

dc CB 19:31 GMT October 13, 2014
Social economics

with falling oil (gas at de pump) prices...the next round of Recovery by Consumer Spending will hit Da News as we proceed into the final quarter, via Sub $3 gasoline (aka Free Money)

HOWEVER: is this proves to be the case, then all bets are off.

Who is CIDRAP? "The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP; "SID-wrap") is a global leader in addressing public health preparedness and emerging infectious disease response. Founded in 2001, CIDRAP is part of the Academic Health Center at the University of Minnesota."

The full punchline from the CIDRAP report:

We believe there is scientific and epidemiologic evidence that Ebola virus has the potential to be transmitted via infectious aerosol particles both near and at a distance from infected patients, which means that healthcare workers should be wearing respirators, not facemasks.

CIDRAP: "We Believe There Is Scientific Evidence Ebola Has The Potential To Be Airborne"

GVI Forex john 19:28 GMT October 13, 2014
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Livingston nh 19:13 GMT October 13, 2014
Fed officials say global slowdown could push back U.S. rate hike

CB - I saw that meatball this morning and wrecked my whole day -- this kinda guy was, is and will be the problem

Livingston nh 19:04 GMT October 13, 2014
Social economics
Reply   
Folks like to believe economics/finance is a science - its not because its subject to socio-political influence -- EU is a basket because of do-gooder economy - US states are falling in line - global warming, lifetime employment(EU), obesity (soon to be a crime), drug abuse (a crime?)

The US wastes more money on prisons and swat team drug enforcement than elementary education -- anti-bullying in the schools, calorie counting donut eaters need a menu w/ the bad news

China may be proof that capitalism can't survive in a democracy

GVI Forex Blog 18:50 GMT October 13, 2014
Slow Holiday Start to Trade. Key Calendar Data Tuesday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB- Inflation, DE- ZEW Survey EZ- Industrial Production

The only key data release Monday was Chinese trade which saw a smaller than expected trade surplus. Exports grew by +15.3% yr/yr. Tuesday sees Key U.K. inflation data and the German ZEW Survey.

Slow Holiday Start to Trade. Key Calendar Data Tuesday

Livingston nh 18:43 GMT October 13, 2014
Fed officials say global slowdown could push back U.S. rate hike

CB- no free money coming out of the Fed today - hoi polloi got the message "DOW loses year gains" - see how the mutual funds end the day

GVI Forex john 16:52 GMT October 13, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk


16:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Several holidays Monday has seen a MIXED RISK posture for the new week  European equities ended mostly higher. U.S. share markets are mixed.  Fixed income markets, the Fed, and banks have been closed.  EURUSD is above its 1.2646 pivot.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mixed. Peripheral bond yields are higher. The U.K. 10-yr gilt yield is lower  The U.S. bond markets are closed. Its psychological focus is now 2.40% as questions about global growth mount.
  • Far East equities closed mixed. Japan was closed. Bourses in Europe were mixed to higher. U.S. shares are mixed.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


Livingston nh 16:03 GMT October 13, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

USD/CAD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/SGD = BUY
EUR/GBP, AUD/USD, GBP/USD= SELL

Treasury mkt back tomorrow so we'll see who believes -- market will always follow the Fed until it becomes unprofitable

GVI Forex 15:57 GMT October 13, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD continues to track S&P wile USDJPy starts to bome into line.

EURUSD
R1 1.2683
R2 1.2753

Livingston nh 15:42 GMT October 13, 2014
Fed officials say global slowdown could push back U.S. rate hike

CB - you may be right only the govvies would buy a bag of magic beans

Livingston nh 15:29 GMT October 13, 2014
Fed officials say global slowdown could push back U.S. rate hike

One other thing for this slow day - the drop in crude prices is a political deal between the US and OPEC giants - it puts pressure on Iran and Russia, helps US fight ISIS and protects the contributors from the revolutionary fate of others

Livingston nh 14:57 GMT October 13, 2014
Fed officials say global slowdown could push back U.S. rate hike

John - rare is it for me to defend the CBs BUT the fiscal policies of most countries is a shambles - all the whackos condemn DEBT (PURITAN economics) w/o consideration of the purpose - Debt for lifestyle maintenance whether personal, corporate, governmental is foolish but debt for capital investment has always changed the world

ALL regulation is a TAX on somebody -- there was a cost to saving the banks that were imprudent -- Ben thought it GD II but it he missed the two big differences -- Good analogies are the most dangerous of all

dc CB 14:53 GMT October 13, 2014
Fed officials say global slowdown could push back U.S. rate hike

With futures slamming the lows at their open yesterday evening, touching levels not seen since May, and with the EuroStoxx 50 officialy entering correction just hours ago, down 10% from the June highs, many were wondering if the NY Fed's Chicago Trading Desk, aka Overnight Ramp Capital LLC, would be put in damage control duty and send futures right back to unchanged (because with new Ebola patient alerts springing up everywhere from Boston to Los Angeles, the pandemic is clearly contained).

The answer, with a whopping 20 point levitation on no volume, and futures which are pointing now well into the green (not to mention the Eurostoxx rebounding off the lows and now green too), is a resounding yes (thank the AUDJPY, which is over 100 pips off the overnight lows and back over 94).

Futures Storm Into The Green, 20 Points Off The Lows; NY Fed's Chicago Office Kept Busy All Night

GVI Forex john 14:46 GMT October 13, 2014
Fed officials say global slowdown could push back U.S. rate hike

NH- good points on your Political Forum post. Personally, I am not so keen on the chain-weighted price index as a policy tool, just as I don't like the value adjustments to consumer price items. They both add a downward bias to inflation indices and strike me as a way to combat inflation by changing definitions rather than prices. So if the price of beef gets too high, I might go out and shoot wild rabbits and squirrels. Somehow, I don't feel the two are equivalent, but could both be construed as animal protein by a bureaucrat.

The problem with central banks is that they are trying to address major structural problems with cyclical tools. All they can do is pursue economic policies that amount to pushing on a string.

Livingston nh 14:36 GMT October 13, 2014
Fed officials say global slowdown could push back U.S. rate hike

Hmmm - Aussie jumping on a Global Economic Slowdown

Livingston nh 14:13 GMT October 13, 2014
Fed officials say global slowdown could push back U.S. rate hike

Fischer drank the Kool-ade -- Global slowdown is the new strawman for the Fed addicts (see my poli forum rant)

GVI Forex Blog 14:09 GMT October 13, 2014 Reply   
October 13, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, October 14. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB- Inflation, DE- ZEW Survey EZ- Industrial Production

GVI Forex Data Outlook for October 14, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:04 GMT October 13, 2014
CALENDAR: Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   


October 13, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, October 14. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB- Inflation, DE- ZEW Survey EZ- Industrial Production

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: GB- Inflation, DE- ZEW Survey EZ- Industrial Production
  • North America: US- Fed Discount Minutes


Livingston nh 14:00 GMT October 13, 2014
ECB's Praet

As long as EU has the stupid austerity rule (fiscal) and new "improved" bank quality capital restrictions (monetary) ECB can't ease -- fortunately for Draghi he can't buy sovereign debt yet // trade zones aren't sovereign

GVI Forex 13:34 GMT October 13, 2014
ECB's Praet
Reply   
ECB policy is one of policy easing.

NY JM 12:00 GMT October 13, 2014
Monday's Trading
Reply   
EUR may be getting some support from unwinding of carry trades (same for JPY). Not enough to reverse EURUSD trend but enough to slow the downside.

Also likely seeing a reassessment of Fed rate hike timing.

Thin holiday market otherwise, focus on equities.

John, one thought ... if carry trades are unwinding then EUR and JPY should be correlating with equities.

GVI Forex john 11:31 GMT October 13, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

USDJPY and S&P out of synch with EURUSD and S&P trading together

USDJPY
below S2 107.32
S3 107.01

USDJPY already is well below its 20day average (108.60).

GVI Forex john 11:24 GMT October 13, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD
above R! 1.2683
R2 1.2753

Pivot 1.2648
20-day moving average potentially in play @ 1.2745

EURUSD has been tracking S&P higher today.

GVI Forex john 10:10 GMT October 13, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: September 2014 China Trade USDb



EARLIER China Trade surplus narrows.

GVI Forex john 10:04 GMT October 13, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: September 2014 China Trade USDb
Reply   




- Earlier NEWS --

+31.0 vs. +41.10 exp. vs. +49.80 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 09:47 GMT October 13, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   
Selected daily USD & EUR Pivots. Complete Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





GVI Forex john 09:38 GMT October 13, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Reply   

09:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Several holidays today has trading activity getting off to a MIXED RISK posture for the new week  European equities are higher. U.S. share markets are open today, but Fixed income markets, the Fed, and the banks are closed.  EURUSD is above its 1.2646 pivot.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mixed. Peripheral bond yields are higher. The U.K. 10-yr gilt yield is lower  The U.S. bond markets are closed. Its psychological focus is now 2.40% as questions about global growth mount.
  • Far East equities closed mixed. Japan closed today. Bourses in Europe are mixed to higher. U.S. share futures are up slightly.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


Syd 05:31 GMT October 13, 2014
ECB's Noyer (France): S&P sovereign outlook change is a warning for France - Source TradeTheNews.com
Reply   
ECB's Noyer (France): S&P sovereign outlook change is a warning for France - Le Figaro - France needs to get their deficit under control- Reiterates that EMU recovery is both weak and fragile- Reiterates that level of EUR is not a monetary policy goal; the USD level is up as US is growing faster than the Euro Area- Not aware that the Fed has a USD exchange rate target**Reminder: On Oct 10th S&P revised France sovereign outlook to Negative from Stable but affirmed its AA rating - On Oct 8th the FOMC Minutes noted that some members had concerns that weak foreign growth could cause more USD currency appreciation and have more adverse effects for the US economy - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 04:38 GMT October 13, 2014 Reply   
(CN) CHINA SEPT TRADE BALANCE: $31.0B (5-month low) V $41.1BE; Exports Y/Y: 15.3% v 12.0%e; Imports Y/Y: +7.0% v -2.0%e- (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG CREDIT CARD BALANCES: A$49.5B V A$49.4B PRIOR; CREDIT CARD P

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China exports growth recovers; Ebola strikes again in Dallas ***Economic Data*** - Source TradeTheNews.com

Hong Kong AceTrader 04:17 GMT October 13, 2014
AceTrader Oct 13: Intra-Day News and Views(EUR/USD)
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

13 Oct 2014

EUR/USD - ...... Euro jumps in early Asian trading on usd's broad-based weakness despite 'bearish' comments from ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny who said the euro is very likely to keep weakening against other major currencies.

Source from WSJ where in an interview on the sidelines of IMF meetings, Nowotny was quoted as saying "due to the different tendencies in interest rate policies there is a great likelihood that this leads to a further depreciation of the euro."

Traders reported fairly active buying of euro in NZ/Australian morning, price rose to 1.2648 and renewed buying emerged at Asian open, tripping stops above 1.2650, euro climbed to intra-day high of 1.2678/79.
Looks like Fri's low at 1.2605 (NY) would continue to hold until European morning and with most financial markets in U.S. & Canada closed for a holiday, range trading is likely to take place after last week's wild swings.

Bids have been raised to 1.2650-40 and more below with stops reported below 1.2600. Offers are noted at 1.2690/00 and more above with stops reported above 1.2720.

sd sf 04:10 GMT October 13, 2014
Headline News Risk
Reply   
ISIS Fighters Try To Shoot Down US-Led Coalition Planes Near Raqqa

"About 20 ISIS fighters have been killed so far in the attacks, the activist group reported on Twitter Sunday. In retaliation, ISIS fighters purportedly began shooting "thermal" rockets at coalition aircraft.

There are several kinds of thermal rockets. It is unclear which type ISIS used. But if used correctly, thermal rockets do have the ability to bring down aircraft. In March 2013, Syrian rebels purportedly shot down a government helicopter near Aleppo. "

A lot of events around the world this week - could trigger some sharp moves at times.

Syd 03:57 GMT October 13, 2014
Upbeat China Trade Data Lift AUD/USD; Resistance at 0.8785 -
Reply   
The China-sensitive Australian dollar rises as high as US$0.8750, extending its rebound from a one-week low of US$0.8649 hit early this morning, after China September exports rose 15.3% on-year, beating the +12.5% forecast, while imports unexpectedly rose 7.0% on-year, defying the forecast for a 2.4% decline. Further upside in the AUD/USD may encounter resistance at Friday's high of 0.8785.

Syd 03:55 GMT October 13, 2014
Support Forming for AUD, OzForex Says -- Market Talk
Reply   
AUD continues its push lower but should see support at about US$0.87 for a while and may even climb again, Jim Vrondas, OzForex's chief currency and payment strategist for the Asia-Pacific region, argues. Central bank Deputy Governor Guy Debelle is due to speak Tuesday and Thursday and Vrondas says it will be interesting to hear any comments around the currency, which is now some 10% lower than a month ago. Consumer and business sentiment data due this week could weigh on the Aussie but there's support forming sub-US$0.87, he says. "The Aussie can form a base around these levels and grind higher in weeks to come, especially if the USD selling persists." The pair is at 0.8726.

GVI Forex Blog 03:34 GMT October 13, 2014 Reply   
The Friday bear-domination in the global markets may be replicated today but keep eyes on

Morning Briefing : 13-Oct-2014 -0333 GMT

Syd 02:04 GMT October 13, 2014
Australian dollar to bounce back, says BNP Paribas analyst
Reply   
Australian dollar to bounce back, says BNP Paribas analyst

Australian dollar doesn't look that overvalued any more, it's fallen pretty much to the level that interest rate differentials would suggest in the short term, and lo and behold that long position in the market has come completely out back to almost neutral."
Neutral positioning means the market is not overly long or short in its bets and implies that a currency is more resistant to bad news.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-to-bounce-back-says-bnp-paribas-analyst-20141013-1155ct.html#ixzz3FzEETs41

The Australian dollar doesn't look that overvalued any more."

Sydney YT 01:56 GMT October 13, 2014
JPY

Since investors often sell the low-yielding yen in carry trades to fund their investment in higher-yielding currencies and assets, the yen tends to get a boost if a worsening of risk sentiment triggers an unwinding of such bets.

Reuters

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:46 GMT October 13, 2014
AceTrader Oct 13: Intra-Day News and Views(USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

13 Oct 2014 00:53GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr opened lower in NZ on Monday as decline in global stocks triggered continued broad-based buying of yen on risk aversion.
Price easily penetrated last week's 107.53 low in NZ n hit an intra-day low of 107.26 in Australia, despite a minor recovery ahead of Asian open, the 400 plus points sell off in the Nikkei futures (financial markets in Japan are closed for Health-Sports Day holiday) prompted another round of yen buying, the pair weakened to a near 1-month bottom of 107.18 shortly after the open.

Today's decline was partly attributable to usd's weakness vs other major European currencies as dovish comments by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on Sat who said weaker-than-expected global growth could prompt the Fed to slow the pace of eventual interest-rate increases.

Offers are tipped at 107.50/60 n more above with some stops reported at 108.00.
On the downside, some bids are noted at 107.10-00 and more below with some fairly large stops rumoured below 106.80, suggesting selling the pair on recovery is the way to go as initial weakness in Asian equities suggests intra-day risk-aversion buying of yen should continue.


This week's economic events will see the release of China's export, import and trade balance on Monday while Japan, Canada and U.S. will be closed for holiday.

U.K. BRC retail sales, Japan's domestic CGPI, Australia's NAB business conditions, BOJ outlook report, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment, eurozone industrial production, U.S. Redbook on Tuesday.

China's CPI and PPI, Japan's industrial production, Germany's final CPI and HICP, U.K. ILO unemployment rate and claimant count unemployment change, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. retail sales, NY Fed manufacturing, core PPI final demand, business inventories and Fed's Beige book on Wednesday.

New Zealand's manufacturing PMI, consumer inflation expectation, eurozone trade balance and CPI, U.S. initial jobless claims, industrial and manufacturing output, NAHB housing market index, Philly Fed business index, Net L-T flows and overall capital flows on Thursday.

Japan's Tankan, Germany's whole price index, eurozone GDP, U.S. building permits and housing starts, Canada's CPI and preliminary U.S. University of Michigan sentiment on Friday.

GVI Forex 00:55 GMT October 13, 2014
S&P

SYDNEY, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Asian stocks got off to shaky start on Monday in step with a steep decline on Wall Street as worries about global economic growth sapped confidence, keeping crude oil prices stuck near four-year lows.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, oil skid on growth anxiety, yen firms

SGP CFD 00:52 GMT October 13, 2014
S&P
Reply   
S&P opens below 1900

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
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Mon 27 May 2019
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AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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