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Forex Forum Archive for 10/15/2014

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Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


dc CB 22:02 GMT October 15, 2014
Ebola in the USA



remain calm and continue shopping, watch Neflix to relax.

GVI Forex john 22:02 GMT October 15, 2014
CALENDAR: Daily Forex Data News



October 15, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, October 16. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ- Final HICP, US- Weekly Jobless, Industrial Production, NAHB, Philly Fed

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ- Final HICP
  • Noth America: US- Weekly Jobless, Industrial Production, NAHB, Philly Fed, Natural Gas, Weekly Crude, TIC Data


dc CB 21:59 GMT October 15, 2014
Ebola in the USA

*OBAMA SAYS CDC TO DEPLOY RAPID RESPONSE TEAMS FOR EBOLA
*OBAMA SAYS LOCAL HOSPITALS NEED TRAINING ON EBOLA PROTOCOLS
*OBAMA SAYS EBOLA `NOT LIKE THE FLU,' ISN'T AIRBORNE
*OBAMA SAYS WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF EBOLA IN U.S. `UNLIKELY'

Mtl JP 21:56 GMT October 15, 2014
Ebola in the USA

after Obama convened a high-level meeting about the Ebola outbreak on Wednesday White House spokesman Josh Earnest said the government is showing "the kind of tenacious, adaptive response that's required," and that Americans should continue having confidence in the Obama administration.
-
that makes the assumption that Americans have confidence in the Obama administration

GVI Forex 21:29 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Note (below) 10-yr closed @ 2.144% vs. 2.184% early om Wednesday. LOD yield on the day reportedly was 1.85%.

GVI Forex john 21:08 GMT October 15, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   
THURSDAY
09:00 EZ HICP Final data. Flash was soft
12:30 US Initial Claims Bouncing along the bottom
13:15 US Ind Prod & Cap Util Growth seen
14:00 US Philly Fed Regional PMI seen better
20:00 US TIC Data Measure of Capital flows (new time)
FRIDAY
12:30 CA BOC CPI BOC targets Inflation
12:30 FRB Yellen Boston
12:30 US House Starts & Permits Key housing measures
13:55 US U Mich prelim Consumer sentiment measure


GVI Forex john 21:06 GMT October 15, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


Selected daily USD & EUR Pivots. Complete Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to

store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





dc CB 21:05 GMT October 15, 2014
Saving the Stock Market

wow Earnings Beat
WOOPS....

Stock down $110 after hours
NFLX

Netflix EPS beat

london red 20:54 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

every qe ended with stock fall. so far the current fall has been minor. only uk is going to grow faster than US this year but gbp is hampered by brexit as well as a bigger deflation drag (thanks to euroland) than US will experience, hence dollar will be the place to be out of default (rates dont need to rise for dollar to rally if elsewhere deflation is worry). once the rate raise is priced out of 2015, dollar becomes king again as deflation is going to hit other regions much harder.

dc CB 20:43 GMT October 15, 2014
Saving the Stock Market



Nanex via ZH
treas Futures contracts traded today

short covering???

GVI Forex john 20:41 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Weekly US API Data
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: +10.200 vs. +2.000 exp vs. +5.000 prev.
Gasoline: -3.100 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -1.836 prev.
Distillates: -0.160 vs. -1.500 exp vs. +0.440 prev.
Cap/Util: 88.7% vs. 89.50% exp vs. 89.30% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 20:25 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

CLOSING...


The heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields.




GVI Forex john 19:53 GMT October 15, 2014
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

dc CB 19:41 GMT October 15, 2014
Saving the Stock Market

Oh and woe to you who were forced to cover those Treas Shorts this morning

ZB 148 00
Zn 130 17
ZF 121 225

to quote the next resident of the White House: "I feel your Pain"

dc CB 19:37 GMT October 15, 2014
Saving the Stock Market

fwiw gas-at-da-pump low price range today in MD 2.88 to 2.92.

tomorrow, ? , as spot is down another 4cents.

if you hated those MTFs that owned stox while youse was paying 3.75/gal to burn up while youse was sitting that traffic jam---breathing in WhoTF knows what--- so youse could go to yr slub job.

There is some schadenfreude in Muddville tonite.

Class Warfare

Paris ib 19:32 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Fed Beige Book

JP right. The whole market will be hanging off Yellen's assessment of the economy even as she does nothing.

It's gonna be an interesting run up to the next FED meet.

SaaR KaL 19:19 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Fed Beige Book

Did fisher mention anything when ^HGX was 300 around 7 years ago?
he complained about the housing after it went to 80
+ Collect funds to help the homesless

Mtl JP 19:19 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Fed Beige Book

ib 18:20 because folks still genouflect to them

SaaR KaL 19:17 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Fed Beige Book

John...Hi
Anyone mentioned NDX around 1000 again?
Maybe you hear from other traders
(Long term traders I mean)
Thank you

dc CB 18:58 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Fed Beige Book

FISHER SAYS MARKET CORRECTION DOES NOT MEAN ECONOMY IN TROUBLE, WAY TOO PREMATURE TO CONSIDER ANOTHER QE

GVI Forex john 18:52 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Fed Beige Book

JM-3Q is already in the can. GS already has a pretty good idea what it will look like when all is said and done. I have no idea about 4Q, but don't get the feeling yet that everything is falling off a cliff.

GVI Forex Blog 18:45 GMT October 15, 2014
RISK-OFF: Myriad of Factors Contribute to Equity Sell-Off. U.K. Employment Data Miss. Full U.S. Data
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ- Final HICP, US- Weekly Jobless, Industrial Production, NAHB, Philly Fed

Thursday sees final EZ HICP for September, Weekly Jobless plus a number of U.S. releases. U.S. Retail Sales, PPI and the Empire PMI all missed street estimates. They all contributed to share market weakness Wednesday. The Fed's Beige Book was a non-event.

RISK-OFF: Myriad of Factors Contribute to Equity Sell-Off. U.K. Employment Data Miss. Full U.S. Data Calendar Thursday

NY JM 18:24 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Fed Beige Book

GS is forecasting 3,2% GDP in Q3 and 3.0% in Q4 so something does not add up.

Paris ib 18:20 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Fed Beige Book

These people have presided over a total co.kup - why should their collective opinion MEAN ANYTHING?

GVI Forex john 18:11 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Fed Beige Book
Reply   





NEWS ALERT
Employment continues to expand at the same pace.




TTN: Live News Special Offer


Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District

Paris ib 18:11 GMT October 15, 2014
eurusd

So in addition to no know USD bears we also have no stock market bears either? Everyone is waiting for the bounce.

Waiting for the train that never comes

dc CB 18:02 GMT October 15, 2014
Ebola in the USA

FRONTIER SAYS CREW FROM OCT. 13 EBOLA FLIGHT PULLED FROM DUTY: BBG

gonna be a reallllllly realllllly great Holiday Season in DA USA. No matter How Cheap gas-at-da-pump gets.

Amazon, Domino's Pizza, Grocery Chains that have Web based Home Delivery. Makers of Garden Sprayers and most of all Clorox.

First indication will be 10-31. The cancellation of Halloween Trick or Treat

dc CB 17:56 GMT October 15, 2014
Saving the Stock Market

Mtl JP 16:43 GMT
dc cb from what u wrote at least they didn't borrow money to buy puking shares !!!


they made the cash from their trading room operation.
don't you know, none of these companies "make" anything anymore. That's like Work.

Livingston nh 17:55 GMT October 15, 2014
Saving the Stock Market

Maybe the Beige Book can save the day - things are either getting better (relief) or things are worse than you thought (QE 4ever)

Tallinn viies 17:50 GMT October 15, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
we all know how things play out.
finally stocks are moving higher and party goes on.

Paris ib 17:39 GMT October 15, 2014
A bit of Geopolitics
Reply   
Depending on how you view things this market is either a surprise or it is not. For those who are not surprised here is a little geopolitics for those dull moments.

The Caliphate

Paris ib 17:27 GMT October 15, 2014
GDP/USD
Reply   
Case in point: GDP/USD has made no gains today. While the JPY gained 1.23% on the USD.

dc CB 17:26 GMT October 15, 2014
Saving the Stock Market

1776...that a good # for the turn :)

emini

SaaR KaL 17:23 GMT October 15, 2014
Day's Trades

USDJPY see you at 68...2 years from now

Paris ib 17:21 GMT October 15, 2014
EUR/AUD
Reply   
EUR/AUD back into rally mode.

None of this is good for the AUD. All the AngloSaxon currencies are at risk here. Foremost the USD, the spare a thought for the rest. All the AngloSaxon nations are chronic capital importers, that is they rely on foreign capital to support domestic economic activity. Large scale cut backs in foreign capital outflows (likely in this environment) will see their currencies hurt (as well as their economies).

dc CB 17:17 GMT October 15, 2014
Ebola in the USA

Via Bloomberg,
Second health-care worker with Ebola traveled on Frontier flight 1143 from Cleveland to Dallas on Oct. 13, CDC says in e-mailed statement.
CDC asking 132 passengers on flight to call 1-800-CDC-INFO, plan to begin interviewing passengers about flight, monitoring those who need it
Health-care worker exhibited no signs, symptoms of illness while on flight, according to crew

Frontier Airlines Statement

“At approximately 1:00 a.m. MT on October 15, Frontier was notified by the CDC that a customer traveling on Frontier Airlines flight 1143 Cleveland to Dallas/Fort Worth on Oct. 13 has since tested positive for the Ebola virus. The flight landed in Dallas/Fort Worth at 8:16 p.m. local and remained overnight at the airport having completed its flying for the day at which point the aircraft received a thorough cleaning per our normal procedures which is consistent with CDC guidelines prior to returning to service the next day. It was also cleaned again in Cleveland last night. Previously the customer had traveled from Dallas Fort Worth to Cleveland on Frontier flight 1142 on October 10.

Paris ib 17:16 GMT October 15, 2014
Will FED officials have to hide after this?
Reply   
Tony Blair had to call off a book tour in the U.K. and reportedly can't go out in the streets safely, such is the level of animosity towards the man in the U.K., the assumption is that he lied knowingly and blatantly about the need to attack Iraq. He is hated for that.

Will FED officials in the U.S. face the same fate? I note that U.S. officials tend to travel in massive security convoys. I guess they know they are hated. I can't imagine what Yellen will say at the NEXT little FED shin dig. What on earth can she say? Er, sorry... we didn't mean it. Anyone got a spare bunker?

Mtl JP 17:04 GMT October 15, 2014
Ebola in the USA

according to NYpost CDC searching for 132 passengers who took flight with Ebola nurse

​”Individuals who are determined to be at any risk will be actively monitored,” the CDC said. ... Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital only has three isolation rooms equipped to properly quarantine and treat people carrying the deadly virus. ... /..

SaaR KaL 16:59 GMT October 15, 2014
Day's Trades

USDCHF...see you at 0.74

Miami JN 16:57 GMT October 15, 2014
EURUSD

Odds we see 1.30 before 1.26?

Odds usdjpy tests 105 this week?

Mtl JP 16:43 GMT October 15, 2014
Saving the Stock Market

dc cb from what u wrote at least they didn't borrow money to buy puking shares !!!

smart cookies

dc CB 16:41 GMT October 15, 2014
Saving the Stock Market



dc CB 20:44 GMT October 14, 2014
in the 3rd quarter
INTC generated $5.7Bn in cash, of which it used $4.2Bn for share buybacks, and a lower tax rate to beat EPS

The Last "engineered" Earnings season?






Mtl JP 16:37 GMT October 15, 2014
Ebola in the USA

Ebola patient was on flight night before fever appeared
Obama to hold Cabinet meeting on Ebola Wednesday
srce: MarketWatch
-
Maybe there is too much "free speech" on the internet (i.e. not reflecting kindly on the overlords / potential seed for panic)

Livingston nh 16:28 GMT October 15, 2014
Global Markets News

JP - as mentioned between now to Thanksgiving (US) see the 10% to 12% correction in STOX (SPX ~ 1800) w/ some relief rallies and couple of tests of lows // USD will follow treasurys and EVENTS in EU, official comments in Japan (probably not too happy w/ recent jawboning) so that market could find footing sooner

The Fed - Minutes revealed concern for "frightening" market w/ language change (when the Fed raises the Markets will be shocked just as today) -- as I said Treasurys are the bubble and the Fed would be well served to move rates sooner // I expected politicians to weigh in on the Fed last week - elections always bring out the best

Paris ib 16:25 GMT October 15, 2014
Love This

Published I would note on October 3 this year in the FT.

Paris ib 16:23 GMT October 15, 2014
Love This
Reply   
Sir:
The next financial apocalypse is imminent. I know this to be true because the (FT Weekend) House and Home section is now assuming the epic proportions last seen before the great crash. Twenty four pages chock full of adverts for mansions and wicker tea trays for $1,000. You're all mad.
Sell everything and run for your lives.
Matt Long, Seilh, France.

Albert Edwards

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:20 GMT October 15, 2014
How to Trade in a Liquidating Market
Reply   


One of my 20 trading tips is to identify the market and when it goes into a liquidating mode you need to adjust accordingly. This article tells you how to trade in a liquidating market.

How to Trade in a Liquidating Market

Mtl JP 16:11 GMT October 15, 2014
Global Markets News

nh 16:06 plz quantify "temporary" both in magnitude and in time.
as I don't see anything temporary about the FED (or the BoJ or the ECB for that matter) nor its meddlesome disposition

Livingston nh 16:06 GMT October 15, 2014
Global Markets News

Today was a no news day but market were picking up on trends of the past week -- Fed's Evans and Fischer got some folks worked up about the Horrible, Terrible Global Slowdown and QE 4ever // US markets knew about the Taper for a year, smelled the smoke but kept dancing so there was problem at the exit -- it always happens this way because markets don't adjust slowly

Nothing fundamental has changed -- think of today as the bad old days when countries intervened in currency market (hrly charts look like former times) - temporary

GVI Forex john 16:05 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

As I prepared the report below, it looks like we moved into a second wave of the sell-off. Margin calls are always a major factor on days like today. Also some bottom-pickers often step forward too early.

It seems you never get through a violent day like today without "collateral damage" to some players.

Mtl JP 16:04 GMT October 15, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

ib 15:53 - To what end ??

from yellen's October 9, 2013 statement - she sees the FED with three mandates:

The mandate of the Federal Reserve is
1) to serve all the American people,
2) help ensure that everyone has the opportunity to work hard and build a better life. We can ensure that inflation remains in check and doesn't undermine the benefits of a growing economy.
3) We can and must safeguard the financial system
-
Which, do you think, is the only one that really counts to her and her gang ?

re "they do not have a lot of policy options"
Under-estimate Yellen gang's "macroprudential policy" which has yet to kick in at thy own risk

GVI Forex john 15:57 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off


15:50 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Markets have moved into a RISK-OFF posture following a sharp sell-off following the break-up of a merger deal and a trio of weaker than expected U.S. data releases. Equity markets fell into a an illiquid black hole. Far East equities closed mostly higher.  Bourses in Europe ended down. U.S. shares are lower.

The run out of stocks saw an avalanche of cash run into fixed income markets which saw the yield in the 10-yr note fall to as low as1.85% before bouncing back to 2.00%. U.K. and  German 10-yr yields are down sharply as well. Peripheral bond yields are up. Greek yields are up sharply on political issues.


The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


Paris ib 15:56 GMT October 15, 2014
Day's Trades

KaL it's called having NO MORE BULLETS. The FED has painted itself into a corner here. Stock market crash OR NOT, they do not have a lot of policy options.

SaaR KaL 15:53 GMT October 15, 2014
Day's Trades

Very Bearish USD
this is bad
Equity as well

Paris ib 15:53 GMT October 15, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

And when / if that happens what is the FED going to do? Cut rates? Introduce some more QE ?? To what end ?? Bond yields are already low. They will then find themselves in an interesting position.

Meanwhile at the geopolitical side of things all the U.S. wars of aggression are being lost. Which is not surprising. The natives aren't exactly enthusiastic about what the U.S. has done in their land. So the U.S. is bombing in retaliation.... like in Vietnam. Leaving a toxic legacy in vengeance. Same old same old.

All the losing wars

SaaR KaL 15:51 GMT October 15, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
eurusd on way to 1.38 + folks
cable 1.73

Buying silver as well

Nasdaq is probably crashing guys

Mtl JP 15:41 GMT October 15, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

from chart history: after the Babson Break 3% pre-tremour shake, not even two months later on Oct 29, stocks megapuked 12%

GVI Forex Blog 15:41 GMT October 15, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Trading volumes are running about double recent levels this morning as wild moves whip around markets. The DJIA has moved 600 points in the first 1.5 hours of trading, dropping 300 points before and just after the open then bouncing higher

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Wild Volatility Crushes Risk Appetite

Mtl JP 15:24 GMT October 15, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

JN 15:03 / from wikipedia: On September 5, 1929, he gave a speech saying, "Sooner or later a crash is coming, and it may be terrific."[4] Later that day the stock market declined by about 3%.[citation needed] This became known as the "Babson Break".
-
of note: Babson was made out to be a nutball by the then MSM, and when stocks did puke folks dumped on him instead of thank him for a heads up !

It appears not much has changed today.

Mtl JP 15:11 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Jay Meisler 14:59 sooo many questions... and then "to stimulate the economy so this leaves it up to the ECB" zingger

Printing money and trying to force-feed it into the economy - i.e people to take on new debt - as a solution that will make everyone rich is a delusion that has been discredited over n over

No-one seems to be addressing the problem (threat od financial and banking instability) of too much bad debt on financial institutions' books beyond offering legalizing accounting hokus pokus of no mark-to-market, bad bank parking holes, or outright CB "purchases" of the crap and letting simply expire out of sight and out of mind.

NY JM 15:10 GMT October 15, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Hedge funds are getting crushed and this seems to be fueling what has been a classic liquidating market.

dc CB 15:10 GMT October 15, 2014
POMO
Reply   
$1.036 billion done

5 POMOs left. (until QE 4 is annced)

Bond shorts murdered, Sauron's Eye turns toward STOX

Miami JN 15:03 GMT October 15, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

JP what is this Babson break mean?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:59 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

So does that push out the time when the dollar starts to rise on rate hike expectations?

Does this give the EURUSD a reprieve?

Does this throw the ball back to the ECB to fight deflation?

Germany won't bust its budget to stimulate the economy so this leaves it up to the ECB.

US mid-terms should see Republican gains so there will be no increase in spending here as well.

When the dust settles this should support stocks but from what level?

GVI Forex john 14:51 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

I see. That is the first month for where+25bp is fully priced.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:42 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

on CNBC, FF futures pointing to first rate hike Feb 2016

GVI Forex john 14:39 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

July 2015 Fed Funds futures now show less than zero percent odds for a rate hike by that time. Fed Fund futures are notoriously bad forecasts, but they are a reliable indicator of current sentiment. Unlike other "forecasts" you can trade at their levels!

Paris ib 14:32 GMT October 15, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Italy is down nearly 4%. Japan is down 2.6%.

Mtl JP 14:31 GMT October 15, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

closest to Babson Break is German DAX off - 2.7%

GVI Forex Blog 14:29 GMT October 15, 2014 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ- Final HICP, US- Weekly Jobless, Industrial Production, NAHB, Philly Fed Far East: No Major Data Europe: EZ- Final HICP Noth America: US- Weekly Jobless, Industrial Production, NAHB, Philly Fed, Natural Gas, Weekly Crude, TIC Data

GVI Forex Data Outlook for October 16, 2014

Paris ib 14:28 GMT October 15, 2014
Now for round II

No-one can complain about a lack of volatility. :-))

Looks like the market is frazzled. Too many people on the same side of the trade. No clear signals from Central Banks. No real understanding of what happens when QE ends and monetary policy in the United States is essentially put on hold for... months... Concern about economic growth everywhere... I could go on. Extreme caution is urged.

However I would say that the really big deal is the collapse in bond yields world wide. Work out the implications of that and you are on to something.

GVI Forex john 14:26 GMT October 15, 2014
CALENDAR: Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


October 15, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, October 16. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ- Final HICP, US- Weekly Jobless, Industrial Production, NAHB, Philly Fed

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ- Final HICP
  • Noth America: US- Weekly Jobless, Industrial Production, NAHB, Philly Fed, Natural Gas, Weekly Crude, TIC Data


GVI Forex john 14:24 GMT October 15, 2014
Now for round II

ib - I agree.

Mtl JP 14:21 GMT October 15, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

john 14:16 we have not yet a single Babson Break day in stocks
-1.5% yes, -2% yes but not -3%

Paris ib 14:20 GMT October 15, 2014
Now for round II
Reply   
Not over till it's over.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:17 GMT October 15, 2014
EURUSD

Damage for sure but not fatal

1.2887 high vs. key levels at 1.2901 and 1.2995

GVI Forex john 14:16 GMT October 15, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

5% day in pivot points for EURUSD R3 and USDJPY S3

back in line now.


As for the rest of the day, its all about stocks which appear to be stabilizing for now. The panic in stocks was triggered (catalyst) by the Retail Sales, PPI and Empire PMI data on the open. Stock sellers then moved into bonds (buying).

The RISK for the balance of the session is whether there will be another wave of margin selling in equities later. Personally I would not even hazard a guess is that is in the cards.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:07 GMT October 15, 2014
coming next

No more stops until the USD lows though ... I assume phones were ringing for the BoJ to protect 105?

london red 14:05 GMT October 15, 2014
coming next

Staying below 10664 gives us chance of further downside. A close at or higher means the low is in despite what is going on around us.

dc CB 14:04 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

shorts taken out and shot

ZF 5Y futures

Paris ib 14:03 GMT October 15, 2014
coming next

It will be interesting to see how stocks react to this huge global fall in bond yields. Right now we have panic but the market is coming back from the brink. This could be more interesting than you think. :-))

Mtl JP 14:03 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off



JM 14:00 / you either had to be quick as a a teenager OR had to have a waiting FOK order. My order did NOT get filled in case u r wondering
see chart

GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

2.028% (LOD 1.85%)

NY JM 14:00 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Panic/stop city led by US 10-yr plunge briefly below 2.00%.

EURUSD high 1.2887
USDJPY low 105.19
GBPUSD high 1.6068
AUDUSD high .8860

Now pivotal big figs 1.28, 1.60 and 2.00% set respective tones.

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Business Inventories September 2014
Reply   



ALERT
+0.20% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.40% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 14:00 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Gold.... is a form of PPT
1240 atm , up from 1220 earlier this am

Paris ib 13:58 GMT October 15, 2014
Not a USD bear in sight

Still no real USD bears out there. Lots of cheer leading. Lots of explanations about how there is nothing to worry about. Even as officials quietly walk away from USD cheerleading.

We triggered stops today. But I would suggest we also dented the long term USD bull case. Which, far as I can tell, has no real fundamental case.

GVI Forex john 13:54 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Kwun- too risky for me!

Keep in mind USDX effectively is EURUSD. USDX is a very poorly constructed index.

Central Kwun 13:49 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Sell usdx
Entry: Target: Stop:

is it a bit over react

GVI Forex john 13:47 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Ugly. Stop losses triggered everywhere.

EURUSD higher on the unwind of carry trades.

What that means is that hedge finds etc. had been borrowing "cheap" EUR to buy U.S. stocks. As they are forced out of U.S. stocks they have to buy back EUR to pay off those loans.

That is why long EURUSD is a RISK-OFF trade.

Amman wfakhoury 13:47 GMT October 15, 2014
GOLD 1231.85 confirmed and ready to move big

Amman wfakhoury 07:09 GMT 10/14/2014
Gold 1231.85 confirmed and ready to move big 20-30 $
___________________--
Gold moved 30$

Paris ib 13:44 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Yeah well maybe there is and maybe there isn't. What you have to ask yourself is what are the aims here? Support the economy and 'the people' or ensure the Government can continue to fund itself at a relatively low cost.

There is no reason to believe that the PPT or the Government is actually working for 'the people'. Far as I can tell.

GVI Forex john 13:42 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Where is the PPT? too bad there isn't one!

Paris ib 13:42 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

The Government gets to fund itself at a reasonably cheap rate. Do you expect them to be displeased? The last market crash saw the U.S. Government funding costs collapse and a massive expansion in Government spending. So everyone's happy. At least the back room boys are happy.

GVI Forex john 13:41 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

DJ-358
S&P -38

1.878%

GVI Forex john 13:37 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

1.945%

london r 13:36 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Yen. That was quick. 50% fib at 105.54. Prev high at 10544. Should bounce. If not then goes from censored to worse for dollar and 10450 10375.
Stix 1846 if cant bounce there sane as abv. For futs 1840

Paris ib 13:35 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

And that does not necessarily mean an economic recovery. What happened in Japan? Endless Government spending. Massive ongoing cuts to household income and spending. A property market collapse which never ended. No-one in Japan can get a mortgage. Bond yields collapsed. Corporate profits remain high. In fact you have an economy of servitude essentially. Corporatism at its very worst. If that's the role model the people of the U.S. have nothing to look forward to. Except a much weaker USD.

GVI Forex john 13:35 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

JP- 1.995% !!!!!!!
I don't believe it

GVI Forex john 13:32 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

2.012%

Paris ib 13:31 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

nh the FED does not 'have to' do anything. We have a very ideological driven FED in the United States. The role model seems to be the BoJ and we all know what happened (and is still happening) to JGB bond yields. If we are to factor in anything it might be a much more dovish FED than anyone imagines. And a much weaker USD.

GVI Forex john 13:27 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

10-yr 2.031% yield in freefall?

Livingston nh 13:26 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

JP - past year market has been saying "It's only a trillion dollars" - so maybe now they are starting to do the math // the bubble is in the Treasury market not stox - for corrections in stox see 2011 or 2006, even with energy pressure DJI is about the same level as Aug bottom (Dow broke 200dma back in Feb drop) - so now we get a real correction in SPX, lower than last pullback for the first time

Fed has to hike rates sooner and stop w/ all the "Goblin under the Bed" excuses

Mtl JP 13:25 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off



pic of 10-yr price action

Paris ib 13:24 GMT October 15, 2014
Layup

Anyone who ignored the 666 morse code signal to sell (I know I did) just wasn't paying enough credit to the players in the shadows. Nice club to be in. Well sort of. You end up looking like Soros. So there's a price to pay.

The Sell Signal

HK Kevin 13:16 GMT October 15, 2014
Dollar Dumped

This wave of USD correction may bring dollar index down to 83.5.

Paris ib 13:08 GMT October 15, 2014
Dollar Dumped
Reply   
Outside day down in USD/JPY. Getting close to outside day UP in EUR/USD.

With the speculative market sitting:
• EUR net short 146K vs short 138K prior
• JPY net short 113K vs 120K short prior

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:05 GMT October 15, 2014
EURUSD 12630 confirmed

Sometimes it pays to step aside...

As I posted, Now it is probably time to step aside as the US opens with its focus on equities.

Now the EURUSD focus is back on 1.28 (1.2750 now becomes pivotal) and GBPUSD focus is on 1.60 after the pause above 1.5850.

Mtl JP 13:03 GMT October 15, 2014
coming next

for SnP to satisfy "raging bull to 2000" it would have to rocket 8.1% seeing as it is around 1850 atm

PPT should be thinking 2x about prop-stepping in at this time coz if they start to buy they ll get over-fed with offers from folks looking to just get out.

Paris ib 13:02 GMT October 15, 2014
The Quiet Move Away from Reserve Currency Status
Reply   
"new research reveals that what was once a privilege is now a burden, undermining job growth, pumping up budget and trade deficits and inflating financial bubbles. To get the American economy on track, the government needs to drop its commitment to maintaining the dollar’s reserve-currency status."

Not that the market took any notice. There has been a shift in rhetoric and the market still thinks we are back with Clinton and Rubin and the 'a strong dollar is good for the economy'. Not any more apparently.

Mr Bernstein

Paris ib 12:53 GMT October 15, 2014
Saving the Stock Market

Panic buttons. High fives at the Soros hedge fund.

But he still has to look in the mirror !! Good grief.

Paris ib 12:47 GMT October 15, 2014
The Narrative Falls Apart
Reply   
All the feel good stories about the U.S. economies are starting to look shaky. And the USD is in big trouble. Yellen is gonna have to decide what to do. An end to QE no problem. If she wants the stock market to hold (I'm presuming she does) she will have to come across all dovish. Which means they let the USD slide some more. Given the rhetoric out there (I'm even hearing 'experts' questioning the wisdom of the USD reserve currency status) a slide in the USD from current levels will not be resisted and may even be welcomed.

Jared Bernstein

GVI Forex john 12:46 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Don't worry I have a call into Janet. Waiting for her to call back.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:46 GMT October 15, 2014
EURUSD



4 hour chart. Last time above the 200 period mva was mid July, currently at 1.2820

GVI Forex john 12:45 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

10-yr 2.108%

GVI Forex john 12:40 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Retail Sales September 2014

U.S. Retail Sales. Weaker than expected.

GVI Forex john 12:34 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. PPI September 2014
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Headline: -0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.00% (r. ) prev.
Core: 0.0% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.10% (r. ) prev.


RELEASE:
Producer Price Index



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 12:33 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Retail Sales September 2014
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
-0.30% vs. -0.00% exp. vs. +0.60% pre
Ex-Auto: -0.20% v +0.10% exp. v +0.30% pre
Ex-Auto/Gas: -0.10% v -0.40% exp. v n/a pre


PRESS RELEASE: U.S. Advance Retail Sales



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. Empire PMI
Reply   



ALERT
+6.7 vs. +20.0 exp. vs. +27.5 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 12:15 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

the catalyst is fear
the manifestation is folks pulling money from stocks and going into (near)cash
chief FED gang meddler yellen might be "worried" about fear morphing into panic. But what can she do and, more importantly besides worry, what will she do. Players didnt like the two previous attempts at their QE punchbowl being taken away, 2x FED gang back off.
3rd time is the charm says the old saw

london red 12:14 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Retail sales. Headline may miss but watch ex for strength.
Yen. Trendline just below current levels, a miss may spike to 64 fib. We bounced once so now v imp support. Either they db here or we do 10550/105.
Chris 114 barrier gets done on wti 80 break. You dont want to call time on nice trend but 114/115 prob temp top. Pullback 112 max. 144ema kicked it off at 11216 trendline 11413 abv makes parabolic.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:13 GMT October 15, 2014
EURUSD
Reply   


- 1.2650 continues to be its focal point, traded each day this week and is around the midpoint of last week's 1.2507-1.2792 range
- Current resistance (minor) is around 1.2679, guards a return to 1.2700.
- Has traded above its weekly pivot (1.2605) all week
- Unwinding of carry trades (e.g. borrowing cheap EUR to invest in other assets, such as equities, commodities, etc) may be providing some support.
- This comes in a market that is still bearish and looking for EURUSD to eventually trade lower but waiting for a trigger from the ECB (e.g. QE)
- Expectations have changed to looking for a dovish FOMC in 2 weeks time, which could restrain the dollar upside ahead of it.

So to sum it up, momentum has slowed, equities are lower again, oil remains under pressure and fx seems like a sideshow in comparison.

Next up is US retail sales - look beyond the headline for underlying strength or weakness.

GVI Forex john 11:59 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

fwiw THe next Fed decision is two weeks from today.

GVI Forex john 11:54 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

10-yr 2.162%

JP- 2.00% offered for the 10-yr yield would be a major move. I'm not sure what the catalyst would be, but then I'm having trouble figuring out why yields have fallen this far. If I were Yellen, I would definitely be troubled by current developments.

Mtl JP 11:52 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Message to the "policy-setting" FED gang

“The only difference between a rut and a grave is the depth.”

Mtl JP 11:48 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

john 10:33 despite its unchanging specific gravity, Gold is flying over last hour. Maybe we see 10-yr offer 2.00% yield today

GVI Forex john 11:39 GMT October 15, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

USDJPY breaks 107.00 pivot.

London Chris 11:28 GMT October 15, 2014
CAD
Reply   
Is anyone trading the cad? Just follow the oil market.

Mtl JP 11:24 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

john 10:33 are you worried about (an officially) negative return ?
if y, why ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:02 GMT October 15, 2014
EURUSD 12630 confirmed

EURUSD can't get out of the way of 1.2650, the level I pointed out in my weekly outlook video (around the midpoint of last week's range). A limited upside (suggests selling rallies) ahead of Draghi's speech has worked for overnight trading. Now it is probably time to step aside as the US opens with its focus on equities.

GVI Forex Blog 10:59 GMT October 15, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The GBP tried to trim some of its recent losses after its employment continued its improving trend in the UK. Claimant Count Rate fell to its lowest level since Oct 2008) while Jobless Claims Change declined for the 23rd straight month and wages improved.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Oil price slumps continues

GVI Forex john 10:43 GMT October 15, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


Selected daily USD & EUR Pivots. Complete Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





Mtl JP 10:41 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

john - As you can see, the numbers are still at a very high absolute levels. No reason to panic yet.

Just sit back and enjoy the dump.

GVI Forex john 10:33 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

10-yr 2.203%

GVI Forex john 10:25 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

S&P 200-day average 1905.68 moving out of range? (1877 Tues Close)

Amman wfakhoury 09:41 GMT October 15, 2014
EURUSD 12630 confirmed

Send a request to [email protected] and he will forward it to me

GVI Forex Blog 09:33 GMT October 15, 2014
RISK-OFF: U.K. Employment Data Miss, But Still Better. China CPI falls. Full U.S. Data Calendar
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Retail Sales, Empire PMI, PPI, Beige Book

U.S. CPI , PPI, the Empire PMI and the Fed's Beige Book are slated for release today. Chinese CPI data like elsewhere fell short of street estimates and has fallen to recent new lows. U.K. employment figures improved but fell short of street expectations.

RISK-OFF: U.K. Employment Data Miss, But Still Better. China CPI falls. Full U.S. Data Calendar

GVI Forex john 09:20 GMT October 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply   
09:20 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Trading in Europe early is off to generally a RISK-OFF bias, but we have noted that U.S. domestic markets often do not like to follow the lead of overseas activity. We will see. U.K. employment data reported today improved, but fell short of street expectations. Bond yields generally are depressed  The EURUSD is trading lower below 1.2700.


  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are lower.  The Peripheral bond yields are mostly down, but volatile Greek yields are up. The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is lower  The U.S. bond markets yields are below 2.20%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher.  Bourses in Europe are down. U.S. share futures are lower.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


TREVISO Kilian 09:19 GMT October 15, 2014
EURUSD 12630 confirmed

Amman, how can I join your sms system alert?

Riga 09:07 GMT October 15, 2014
EURUSD 12630 confirmed

Thanx, tell me how, and the rules?

Hong Kong AceTrader 09:01 GMT October 15, 2014
AceTrader Oct 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views(EUR/USD)
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

15 Oct 2014 07:51GMT

EUR/USD - ....... Although euro rebounded after extending decline from yesterday's high of 1.2769 to 1.2625 in Asia n price edged higher in European morning after data showed German inflation in-line with expectations, renewed selling interest at 1.2663 checked gain adn price retreated to 1.2639.

At present, offers are touted at 1.2670/80 and more above with stops emerging above 1.2700.
On the downside, bids are placed at 1.3610-00 with stops below 1.2600 and more near 1.2580.

Amman wfakhoury 08:54 GMT October 15, 2014
EURUSD 12630 confirmed

Riga 08:43 GMT 10/15/2014
-------------------
You can join my SMS service

Riga 08:43 GMT October 15, 2014
EURUSD 12630 confirmed

Unbelievable but 1.2670 reached just like Amman confirmed, sir is it possible to see your confirmed levels regularly?

Tallinn viies 08:40 GMT October 15, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
euro tried to test 1,2680 again but failed even at lower levels.
now back to 1,2620/25 and this time Im expecting it to move lower toward 1,2550.

GVI Forex john 08:39 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Employment Data August/September 2014

U.K. Claimant Count Unemployment falls, but by less than expected. Unemployment steady. (Declining Claimant Count is
stronger and vice-versa).

GVI Forex john 08:34 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.K. Employment Data August/September 2014
Reply   




-- NEWS ALERT --

Claimants (000): -18.6 vs. -35.0 exp. vs. -37.2 (-33.20) pre
Unemployment: 6.20% vs. 6.10% exp. vs. 6.20% pre
Avg Earnings (x-bonus): +0.90% v +0.80% exp. v +0.70% pre
Avg Earnings (+ Bonus): +0.70% v +0.70% v +0.60% pre



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 08:27 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: China CPI September 2014

EARLIER China CPI. Tame inflation.

GVI Forex john 08:17 GMT October 15, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: China CPI September 2014
Reply   




Earlier News
CPI yy: +1.60% vs. +1.70% exp. vs. +2.00% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

sd sf 06:50 GMT October 15, 2014
Update

$yen - pattern broken

expecting test of 107.65 at some point - my system sold out earlier in the day though so have to be watcher at this point.

Amman wfakhoury 05:01 GMT October 15, 2014
EURUSD 12630 confirmed

Amman wfakhoury 09:33 GMT 10/14/2014

first 12689 already confirmed and reached ..and now 12630 confirmed will be reached starting and return level 12672 and rise above this will return to it.
_________________________
12630 reached ..and now back to 12670

GVI Forex Blog 04:29 GMT October 15, 2014 Reply   
(CN) CHINA SEPT CPI Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.7%E (lowest level since Jan 2010) - (CN) CHINA SEPT PPI Y/Y: -1.8% V -1.6%E (31st straight month of decline) - (KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) CUTS 7-DAY REPO RATE BY 25 BP

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China CPI slows to near 5-year lows; BOK cuts rates to record low 2% - Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 04:17 GMT October 15, 2014
Ebola in the USA

By Thin Margin, Many Think US Is Prepared for Ebola Virus
Wall Street Journal - ‎4 minutes ago‎
Only slightly more than half of Americans think the U.S. is prepared to handle an Ebola outbreak despite efforts by federal health officials to reassure the public the country can contain the virus, a new survey shows.
-
Raises the Q which is greater prob:
ebola or potential panic about it

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:43 GMT October 15, 2014
AceTrader Oct 15: Intra-Day News and Views(USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

5 Oct 2014 02:09GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Earlier Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari said today the gov't is not pursuing a policy to intentionally weaken the yen.
Amari, speaking in parliament, said it is necessary to monitor any negative impact from rising import prices.
Some cited his comments may have contributed to dlr's intra-day retreat from 107.41.

The greenback swung from gain to loss in volatile Tokyo trading on Wed as various comments from Japan officials have confused traders.

Despite climbing in Australia after touching a fresh 1-month low of 106.67 in Europe yesterday due to cross-buying of yen, anticipated rebound in the Nikkei prompted short covering, dlr easily penetrated NY high of 107.12 n rallied to intra-day high of 107.41 ahead of Tokyo open after tripping stops above 107.30. Present retreat on renewed cross-buying of yen possibly after Japan's Economy minister Amari's comment suggests choppy sideways trading is in store.

Offers are noted at 107.30/40 n more at 107.55/60 would stops touted above there. Initial bids have been raised to 107.05-00 n more below should keep dlr trading above said yesterday's low. Therefore, with the Nikkei now in positive territory after recent losing streak, buying dlr on dips is favoured.

Earlier, BoJ senior official said 'BoJ's QE has caused rates to fall, making it easier for banks to increase lending; increase in money stock helps support demand for funding, supports overall economy.'
'no comment on specific FX levels;
in general, weak yen is positive for exports and companies operating globally; weak yen can be negative for some small firms and importers;
weak yen can put pressure on real household incomes;
BoJ gov Kuroda thinks that as long as FX moves in line with fundamentals, weak yen is positive.'

Wednesday will see the release of China's CPI and PPI, Japan's industrial production, Germany's final CPI and HICP, U.K. ILO unemployment rate and claimant count unemployment change, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. retail sales, NY Fed manufacturing, core PPI final demand, business inventories and Fed's Beige book.

GVI Forex 01:43 GMT October 15, 2014
China CPI
Reply   
21:30 *(CN) CHINA SEPT CPI Y/Y: 1.6% (4-year low) V 1.7%E

- Sept CPI m/m: 0.5% v 0.2% prior.
- Food CPI y/y: 2.3% v 3.0% prior
- Non-food CPI y/y: 1.3% v 1.5%prior
- YTD CPI 2.1%

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex 00:57 GMT October 15, 2014
GBPUSD

See this chart on GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:03 GMT 10/14/2014

Targeting 1.5850?

GVI Forex Blog 00:27 GMT October 15, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Euro and sterling fall after disappointing local data

* German ZEW index falls below zero; UK inflation slows sharply

* Canadian dollar hits five-year lows * China inflation data takes centre stage in Asia

FOREX-Dollar prevails as euro, sterling come under pressure

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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