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Forex Forum Archive for 10/17/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


dc CB 23:47 GMT October 17, 2014
Said it before Why Janet...next Hitlary
Reply   
Ignition?

DOH #3 for the Week

Michael Millikin, Top Lawyer for G.M., Is Retiring

GVI Forex john 22:01 GMT October 17, 2014
Weekly Trading Planner
Reply   
MONDAY
05:00 JP Lead Indicators-- forecast of economy
TUESDAY
00:30 JP Trade-- key economic sector
02:00 CN GDP-- critical economic measure
14:00 US Existing Homes-- top housing measure
WEDNESDAY

01:30 AU CPI -- RBA target   
08:30 GB BOE Minutes-- key part of policy
12:30 CA Retail Sales--  key demand measure  
12:30 US CPI -- Fed targets inflation
14:00 CA BOC Rates+MPR -- policy seen steady
23:45 NZ 3Q CPI RBNZ-- targets inflation
THURSDAY
01:45 CN HSBC flash PM-- universal economic survey
07:28 DE MFG PMI flash-- universal economic survey
07:28 DE SVC PMI flash -- universal economic survey
07:58 EZ flash MFG PMI -- universal economic survey
07:58 EZ flash SVC PMI -- universal economic survey
08:30 GB Ret Sls --key demand measures
12:30 US Initial Claims--freshest jobs data  
13:45 US Mfg MKt PMI flash-- universal economic survey
FRIDAY
08:30 GB GDP-- broadest measure of economy
14:00 US New Homes Sales-- housing measure


dc CB 21:08 GMT October 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On

Many market participants are looking dumbstruck at the miraculous surge in Dow Transports, Small Caps, and Homebuilders this week off the bond-short-puke lows of Wednesday morning. The answer - sadly for those who believe this is presaging new new highs and utopia once again - is that this was the biggest weekly short-squeeze in 11 months... and more troubling for the bulls - it ran out of steam today

WTForced Buy In: Shorts Crucified By Biggest Squeeze Since 2013

dc CB 20:45 GMT October 17, 2014
Ebola in the USA




Don't expect a replay of last week


WmBanzai7

Mtl JP 20:45 GMT October 17, 2014
FHFA Said to Plan Steps to Ease Lending to Riskier Buyers

IMF worries, Yellen worries , Credit Swiss worries

Growing wealth gap could trigger next recession: report

so what do they prescribe to ward off the recession threat ? Not education, not owning a business but
Asset prices: Strong equity markets a key source of wealth growth .pfd


GVI Forex john 20:31 GMT October 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On

Closing Levels...



GVI Forex Jay Meisler 20:29 GMT October 17, 2014
Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead
Reply   
Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

Don't expect a replay of last week

dc CB 20:22 GMT October 17, 2014
Ebola in the USA



PAR 16:37 GMT
What about playing golf ?

there was a question about that

WmBanzai7

GVI Forex john 19:55 GMT October 17, 2014
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

dc CB 19:53 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

Ms. Yellen expressed concern about "lower-income families without assets" that "can end up, very suddenly, off the road." She therefore advised families to "take the small steps that over time can lead to the accumulation of considerable assets." She did not, however, explain how they were to accumulate these assets, in light of falling incomes and zero interest rates.

This uncomfortable disconnect between theory and reality also came out during her Senate confirmation hearings last fall. Given the predicament of "the little person out there who is just trying to pay the bills and maybe put a buck away for retirement," Ms. Yellen was asked to "explain to the senior citizen who is just hoping that CD will earn some money" the impact of "a policy that says, for as far as the eye can see ... keep interest rates low." She replied: "I understand ... that savers are hurt by this policy, [but] savers wear a lot of different hats...They may be retirees who are hoping to get part-time work in order to supplement their income."

In essence, despite a zero interest rate policy that mainly helps the wealthy, struggling families with falling incomes ought to take steps to accumulate "considerable assets,"

Yellen Translated: "Let Them Eat Cake"

dc CB 19:49 GMT October 17, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report

unfortunately the Big Moves took place on Wednesday, which as most know, will show up next in friday's COT

GVI Forex john 19:43 GMT October 17, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report
Reply   

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP



Net EUR JPY COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details









Click on chart for COT Details




Mtl JP 19:07 GMT October 17, 2014
FHFA Said to Plan Steps to Ease Lending to Riskier Buyers

on 18 Sep 2014 Yellen gave "The Importance of Asset Building for Low and Middle Income Households" speech in which she revealed her "mission" .. "to encourage families to take the small steps that over time can lead to the accumulation of considerable assets.".../..
-

PAR 18:58 GMT October 17, 2014
FHFA Said to Plan Steps to Ease Lending to Riskier Buyers

Would Bernanke qualify ?

GVI Forex john 18:37 GMT October 17, 2014
FHFA Said to Plan Steps to Ease Lending to Riskier Buyers

I thought they tried this already? plus ca change...

GVI Forex Blog 18:17 GMT October 17, 2014 Reply   
October 17, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, October 20. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Leading Indicators

GVI Forex Data Outlook for October 20, 2014

PAR 18:14 GMT October 17, 2014
IMF & Lagarde Stock Market Advisors INC
Reply   
Lagarde & IMF to follow DSK in investment banking .

Lagarde already has some experience dealing with Bernard Tapie which has cost France a fortune .


IMF: Market sell-off may have been 'over-reaction'

PARIS (AP) — The head of the International Monetary Fund says market turmoil this week may have been an "over-reaction," as leading economic figures met to discuss Friday the global economy and worries about another recession in Europe.

Christine Lagarde described the week as a "correction on the markets, and perhaps at this stage, an over-reaction."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/france-urged-reform-top-finance-140701721.html

Mtl JP 18:05 GMT October 17, 2014
Charges for Euro Deposits

anyone see some new trading opportunities from the nega-deposit fees ?
tia !

GVI Forex 18:00 GMT October 17, 2014
Charges for Euro Deposits
Reply   
Report Big Banks to Start Charging Clients for Euro Deposits in excess of EUR 10 mln. due to ECB negative interest rates

GVI Forex john 17:50 GMT October 17, 2014
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data News
Reply   


October 17, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, October 20. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Leading Indicators

  • Far East: JP- Leading Indicators
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • Noth America: No Major Data


dc CB 17:36 GMT October 17, 2014
Ebola in the USA

The situation started at around 9:10 a.m. when the woman started vomiting in the Pentagon Parking Lot around lanes 17-19, officials said.

Arlington County Fire Department transported the woman to the Virginia Hospital Center, but she did not exit the ambulance there. She was then taken to Fairfax Inova Hospital, officials said.

Possible Ebola 'situation' near Pentagon; South Parking Lanes Closed

dc CB 17:11 GMT October 17, 2014
FBI Says
Reply   
Companies like Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Google Inc. (GOOGL) should be required to build surveillance capabilities into their products to help law enforcement with their probes, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Providers of new communication services should create a “front door” method to intercept data as certain technology isn’t covered by legislation that requires telecom companies to have monitoring capabilities, FBI Director James Comey said yesterday at a Brookings Institution event in Washington.

Surveillance Tabs Should Be to Added to Devices

Mtl JP 17:09 GMT October 17, 2014
Ebola in the USA

PAR 16:37 as a leader concerned with legacy, golf is just a smokescreen while he is in a secret workshop building an ark

dc CB 17:03 GMT October 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed RisK

from the cynical ZH:
Welcome to the Dow-Data-DependentTM Fed. Because What a difference 1,100 Dow points makes!.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
To answer John's ques yesterday about Why don't the Fed Yappers have a consistent message.

here's your answer. How much did the Never-a-Losing Trading Day for the Quarter "Banks" book on this one.

Charting the FedYapper

Mtl JP 16:58 GMT October 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On

today players mock Gartman and BIS warns on 'violent' reversal of global markets - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, 14 Oct 2014 in Telegraph

Investors take zero-rates for granted and unwisely believe that central banks will protect them, says the capital markets chief of the Bank of International Settlements

PAR 16:58 GMT October 17, 2014
Week Ahead

Imho CHINA is doing much better than everybody is thinking;

GVI Forex Blog 16:52 GMT October 17, 2014
Week Ahead
Reply   
Recent market volatility risks pushing back timing of first UK and US rate hikes

China GDP and euro area PMIs both set to soften, but only modestly

Drop in oil price to push US CPI to 1.5% - a six-month low

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - CHINA GDP AND EURO AREA PMIS TO PROVIDE GLOBAL HEALTH CHECK

PAR 16:37 GMT October 17, 2014
Ebola in the USA

What about playing golf ?

dc CB 16:34 GMT October 17, 2014
Ebola in the USA

this will also allow Obama to get back to his real job, flying around the country on the in AirForce One and appearing at Democratic fundraisers...he's missed many this week. $10,000 a-plate without the draw of the O...not likely. Oh what a loss for the party.

Mtl JP 16:28 GMT October 17, 2014
Ebola in the USA

Klain "will report directly to the president's Homeland Security Adviser Lisa Monaco and ... National Security Adviser Susan Rice as he ensures that efforts to protect the American people by detecting, isolating and treating Ebola patients in this country are properly integrated but don't distract from the aggressive commitment to stopping Ebola at the source in West Africa." - according to some WH official

Mtl JP 16:21 GMT October 17, 2014
Ebola in the USA

and thus Obama shoves aside Dr. Nicole Lurie, who has served as assistant secretary for preparedness and response (ASPR) at the Department of Health and Human Services since July 2009 and slaps Frieden and his $6.6 billion / yr CDC - "the global leader in protecting Americans and
people around the world from infectious diseases."
- in the face.

GVI Forex john 16:18 GMT October 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On

fwiw- S&P 200-day average is back in view at 1902.23. (last 1891).

Once broken, trades on either side of the 200-day average start to lose their punch each time it is penetrated. The longer we remain above or below it, the more momentous its penetration becomes.

GVI Forex john 16:05 GMT October 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk On
Reply   

15:50 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
As European trading markets closed. It appears that traders were in a short-covering frame of mind ahead of the weekend. Having seen similar situations before, the key could be if we through next week unscathed. Far East equities closed mixed.  Bourses in Europe closed up sharply. U.S. share futures are higher. .

The U.S. 10-yr yield has returned to pre-crash levels. 10-yr yields in the bund remain depressed while and gilts yields have normalized as well. Peripheral bond yields are lower, Greek yields are back to 8.00%




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:59 GMT October 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

John called this dead on today and while there is no one size fits all system, this one works when things line up like they did today. We would like to see comments, questions or discussion as we work together to bring good risk/reward trade ideas.

PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
GVI Forex john 10:47 GMT 10/17/2014 - My Profile
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Here are some initial parameters on which to focus today:

EURUSD LOD 1.2781 is its pivot point (1.2782).
I would be looking for stops to be building at that level.

R1 1.2859 (1.2837 HOD) is intact.

Trading Ideas? Perhap take a short on the short side of EURUSD with a close stop. if 1.2782 gets approached again?

dc CB 15:53 GMT October 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed RisK



Treas Bond Bears song of the week:
"the tracks of my tears"
2 years worth

GVI Forex john 15:53 GMT October 17, 2014
OTC
Reply   
FINRA trading halt on some OTC securities due to quoting issues.

GVI Forex Blog 15:43 GMT October 17, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The equity snap-back has been general over the European and US sessions. Stock indices in Europe are looking to close up around 3% a piece, while most leading US indices are up more than 1.5% a piece

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Correction? What Correction?

london red 15:41 GMT October 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed RisK

s&p 200 day 1907.

dc CB 15:18 GMT October 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed RisK

nh
"I note Gartman is calling BEAR"

that was the kiss of death and put the guarentee on the OPEX Shorts Killer Rally today.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:13 GMT October 17, 2014
EURUSD

I gave two good clues this week for trading this pair.

I pointed out 1.27 as the midpoint of 1.25-1.29 and a pivotal bias setting level + potential support as it was making a run at it Wednesday when the low was 1.2706

I have been pointing out 1.29-1.30 as the tough zone and it never really made a serious run at it after the high set at 1.2887 on Tuesday. I also showed my side as long as it did not get above 1.2850.

Then all you needed to do today was take a cue from 1.28 and John guided you to the daily pivot.

I hope my charts are of help painting the picture as this is what I use to trade.

dc CB 15:03 GMT October 17, 2014
Ebola in the USA

Lawyer/Political Operative put "in charge" of Amurika's response to ebola.

Mr. Klain is known for his ability to handle high-stakes and fast-moving political crises.

Ron Klain, Chief of Staff to 2 Vice Presidents, Is Named Ebola ‘Czar’

PAR 14:59 GMT October 17, 2014
eurusd

This may be euro positive as all banks will promote euro deposits to be able to charge their clients 0.20 and then park that monet in high risk euro bonds.

dc CB 14:58 GMT October 17, 2014
CNBC

I bought the bottom yesterday. I filled up my gas tank at under $3. :))))

tokyo ginko 14:57 GMT October 17, 2014
Where's Ginko?

sorry been busy for a while, trading the nk..(buying 14500/600s, selling above 14700 the last few session)

close out my
yen/sgd , USD/sgd , nzd/sgd, GBP/USD, aud/USD, nzd/USD positions

oil close a little early at 94..short above 100s level

gold still holding shorts

long equities future portfolio took a slight hit so have to hang in there a while

usd jpy still long at 107..targetting 109.30

GT all..

Livingston nh 14:56 GMT October 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed RisK

STOX - traders have been conditioned over the last year to expect quick rebounds on pullbacks (I have consistently expected a second test of lower lo that never came) -- so maybe this time is different (AAArgh) - there should be a time element if this is a real correction

I note Gartman is calling BEAR -- JP - maybe he is the convert we needed

Mtl JP 14:55 GMT October 17, 2014
eurusd

what service benefit do the bank's clients receive for the "0,20 percent" fee ?

Mtl JP 14:53 GMT October 17, 2014
Crude oil

crude oil's price drop, orchestrated or not, might have one unusual un-intended consequence of closing down the high cost of production and low low lifespan of fracker's wells, the benefit being that of curbing the rape and spoil of America's land, water and air. Could not happen to nicer folks.

Tallinn viies 14:50 GMT October 17, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
BNY Mellon Corp world largest custody bank, said on friday it began charging client 0,20 percent on their euro-denominated deposits. initiated the charge on Oct 1.

Paris ib 14:48 GMT October 17, 2014
CNBC

Lol. Soros maybe?

Paris ib 14:46 GMT October 17, 2014
Where's Ginko?

There u are! :-)

PAR 14:38 GMT October 17, 2014
CNBC

Makes me wonder . Who was the lonely loser who sold at the bottom and refused to appear on CNBC or Bloomberg ?

My pension fund ?

tokyo ginko 14:38 GMT October 17, 2014
Where's Ginko?

good evening all, ginko here

Paris ib 14:38 GMT October 17, 2014
CNBC

It must be fun to trade the bond market. Heart attack city.

Mtl JP 14:37 GMT October 17, 2014
Ebola in the USA

Ebola unlikely to hurt economy, Goldman Sachs says

Mtl JP 14:33 GMT October 17, 2014
CNBC

interest yield UP and SnP UP is incongruent

HK [email protected] 14:32 GMT October 17, 2014
Consumers have high sentiments....
Reply   


But with lower spending.

From what I sense around, this is a not an accurate index.




Paris ib 14:29 GMT October 17, 2014
Where's Ginko?

Ginko was early but had a point.

GVI Forex john 14:26 GMT October 17, 2014
CNBC

PAR- Could be. Central Banks should not be in the business of managing stock prices. That often ends in tears.

ny ny 14:25 GMT October 17, 2014
CNBC

I spoke to a cab driver and he put money in at the low.

I spoke to the doorman in my building and he put money at the low.

I spoke with the security card at work and he put money in.

I spoke to a homeless man and he put money in at the low.

My 6 year old son bought at the bottom.

Everyone claims to have caught the low.

GVI Forex john 14:23 GMT October 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed RisK

JM- I think the primary RISK indicator is stocks. In this environment bond yields are just a follower.

PAR 14:22 GMT October 17, 2014
CNBC

Hearing Buffett also put more money in the stock market at the low yesterday morning.

Looks like everybody and their friends coordinated to buy just before Bullard spoke . Maybe Bullard or someone else at the FED made some discreet calls ?

NY JM 14:12 GMT October 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed RisK

Perhaps 2.20% becomes the risk on/risk off indicator?

GVI Forex john 14:11 GMT October 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed RisK

10-yr 2.218% RISK-ON??

PAR 14:07 GMT October 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index October 2014

Hearing Bullard to make new statement next week . LoL

GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT October 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index October 2014

I guess the U.S. economy was not falling out of bed?

Guess What? The stock market is NOT the economy!!

Livingston nh 14:01 GMT October 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index October 2014

Treasury yields are popping along the curve -- spreads favoring USD again absent panic moves

GVI Forex john 13:59 GMT October 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index October 2014

University of Michigan-Conference Board Sentiment. Preliminary September Michigan Survey up strong. Data subject to revision in about two weeks.





GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:59 GMT October 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System



Good alert by John. Notice the break of the daily pivot (1.2782) in this 5 minute chart

PAR 13:58 GMT October 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index October 2014

FED officials surprised by strong consumer sentiment data .

Livingston nh 13:57 GMT October 17, 2014
Crude oil

There are estimates starting to circulate about the spending effects of the oil price decline - winter heating oil in the NE should save significant large chunks of monthly cash - the extra free cash will be redirected into retail

So the Fed "preferred inflation" rate will not decline but increase much faster -- 'real' GDP will benefit because the deflator doesn't exclude energy or food -- hoisted on their own petard
-------
John as an aside - President is now in his Katrina moment w/ ebola -- we will probably get pipelines from Congress after election

GVI Forex 13:49 GMT October 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

There was thar spike through the pivot point that we flagged earlier in this thread. That was a trade with a nice risk/reward pay-off.

GVI Forex john 13:44 GMT October 17, 2014
Crude oil

That's the objective of the White House as best I can tell.

PAR 13:34 GMT October 17, 2014
Crude oil
Reply   
Below $ 75 most US independent oil companies will be bankrupt . Is that the objective of Saudi Arabia ?

GVI Forex john 13:28 GMT October 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EUR PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:

EURUSD pivot 1.2782 (LOD ~1.2781)

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:27 GMT October 17, 2014
EURUSD



One hour chart - note the line drawn at 1.2845 and how it held...

PAR 13:25 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

FED speakers . What you say depends on where you sit .
Fed speakers just want to keep their job and all the pleasanteries ssociated with it . If you get it wrong you can keep your job . In the real economy that is different .

Livingston nh 13:24 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

JP - first the president has a direct impact and the Congress is the ultimate arbiter -- there are three constitutional branches of government -- the Fed and other agencies are not among them

Mtl JP 13:20 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

nh and who might "her bosses" be .... names plz
tia

Livingston nh 13:12 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

Par - turn that around -- when you listen to the Fed speakers they are the addicts - always a New excuse so they can't quit - markets just enable this addiction

Yellen speech equates monetary policy w/ social policy -- unfortunately, her bosses agree with her

Mtl JP 13:11 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

PAR 13:07 what if you considered that the FED is determined this time around to end QE regardless of players loosing some feathers in their tempter tantrum

PAR 13:07 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

Marketsv are addicted to QE and ZERO rates . Without that markets go into delirium tremens. A psychotic condition typical of withdrawal in chronic alcoholics, involving tremors, hallucinations, anxiety, and disorientation.

houston st 13:05 GMT October 17, 2014
Shanghai bc


Been thinking about you of late...nice to see you back in the fold...gl/gt.

GVI Forex john 13:01 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

I think Fed Governors want to get away from Asset Purchase Program asap. With the 10-yr note at 2.18% at the moment, I'm not sure what QE4 would accomplish? I think QE is dead and buried.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:01 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

No Q&A so her speech is a non-event despite all the market anticipation.

PAR 12:59 GMT October 17, 2014
US Economy
Reply   
US economy really strong despite all the FED actions and comments . US real economy would have been much stronger without all the FED interventions.


EURUSD on its way to 1.2777.

Mtl JP 12:50 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

re Economic mobility : when something is mobile, it can go forward or reverse, up or down.
what exactly is yellen whinning about ?

Livingston nh 12:47 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

I think the Fed is in blackout period re: interest rates -- QE4ever is probably ok to talk about (hmm)

Hong Kong Ahe 12:47 GMT October 17, 2014
Shanghai bc

Really nice to see you back Shanghai bc, 14 years you have been participated here if I recall those old days. Well time flies by. ;)

PAR 12:46 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at the Boston Fed economic conference on Inequality of Economic Opportunity president Janet Yellen doesn't comment on monetary policy in her prepared remarks.

• She expresses her grave concern about the extent and growth of income inequality in the US and asks whether this is compatible with American values
The widening of inequality, which halted during the recession has resumed in recovery.

• U.S. is one of the few advanced economies that does not fund public education through national taxes.

• Economic mobility is lower in the US than in most advanced economies.

GVI Forex john 12:45 GMT October 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) September 2014

Starts and Permits. Data have improved. USD positive?


GVI Forex john 12:42 GMT October 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices September 2014

Canada: Headline and BOC Core CPI. Core CPI steady..

GVI Forex 12:41 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

Waiting to see if there is a Q & A

Central Kwun 12:38 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

the speech is finished?

GVI Forex john 12:35 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

Nothing in Speech about the economy. Not Surprising....

GVI Forex john 12:34 GMT October 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices September 2014
Reply   




NEWS ALERT
yy: vs. +2.10% exp. vs. +2.10% prev.
Headline
mm: +0.10% vs. +0.00% exp. vs. 0.00% prev.
yy: +2.00% vs. +2.00% exp. vs. +2.10% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

PAR 12:33 GMT October 17, 2014
FED COMEDIA DELL ARTE

Fed officials surprised by really strong US housing data .

GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT October 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS: U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) September 2014
Reply   



NEWS ALERT
Starts: 1017 vs. 1002 exp. vs. 956 (957) prev.
Permits: 1018 vs. 1032 exp. vs. 1003 (unch) prev.


New Residential Construction



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 12:27 GMT October 17, 2014
EURUSD

Chris 12:21 round number at 1.30 is good one

PAR 12:27 GMT October 17, 2014
FED COMEDIA DELL ARTE
Reply   
Fed worried about Europe ? Draghi worried about USA ?



FXStreet (Łódź) - Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren said in an interview for CNBC on Friday that it was too early to decide whether the end of QE3 should be delayed due to the recent turmoil on stock markets and worse economic data.

"I would remind you though that just a couple months ago we were talking about how little turbulence there was. It's going to take us a little time to fully process what exactly is the reason for the turbulence," he said.

Rosengren pointed to mid-2015 as still the most probable time for the first rate hike and added that further QE wasn't expected although not totally ruled out.

Rosengren added that what worries the Fed is the deteriorating situation in Europe.

London Chris 12:21 GMT October 17, 2014
EURUSD

It would be nice to have access to an order book to see whether there are stops overhead.

GVI Forex john 12:21 GMT October 17, 2014
Shanghai bc

So nice to see you back. Your wisdom has been missed!

Mtl JP 12:21 GMT October 17, 2014
EURUSD



euryen is an alternative trade consideration

HK [email protected] 12:17 GMT October 17, 2014
CNBC



PAR

Probably looking for some peripheral money to bail them.

shanghai bc 12:16 GMT October 17, 2014
Shanghai bc


Thanks. All the best to you.

Mtl JP 12:14 GMT October 17, 2014
EURUSD

Jay I currently only have a up bias, so no for me.

HK [email protected] 12:13 GMT October 17, 2014
Shanghai bc


Will definitely deliver a big improvement to the forum.

Mtl JP 12:09 GMT October 17, 2014
Shanghai bc

Hola shanghai bc

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:09 GMT October 17, 2014
EURUSD

JP, would a move below the pivot reverse that view?

Mtl JP 12:08 GMT October 17, 2014
EURUSD

Res 3 1.2998 = Traget
Res 2 1.2921
Res 1 1.2859
Price: 1.2825
Pivot 1.2782 = Support
-
Bottom Line
bias is UP and preferable trade side is long

Prague viktor 12:07 GMT October 17, 2014
Shanghai bc

wellcome back sir we missed ur wisdowm here

PAR 12:07 GMT October 17, 2014
CNBC
Reply   
All US investment managers interviewed on CNBC today, put more money to work in the stock market at yesterdays low . Unbelievable ?

PAR 12:03 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

Interest rate comedia dell arte continues forever.

Imho Bernanke and Yellen have been so often wrong in the past ( remember no Nationwide housing crisis possible ) that the FED cannot and will not raise rates before 2020 and will print money everytime the stock market moves down more than 5 %.

Yellen put in place .

shanghai bc 12:03 GMT October 17, 2014
Shanghai bc


Thanks,Jay,for warm welcome. Happy to be back again.

All the best to you.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:02 GMT October 17, 2014
EURUSD



4 hour chart - same levels on top

1.28 will set the tone going forwards

UK CH 11:50 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

After the volatility this week I have the feeling many will stay sidelined today unless Yellen gives a clear dovish signal. This is my plan.

Mtl JP 11:50 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

Too much reverence being allocated to FED gang leader member Yellen

her prattle with jobseekers at some job referral outfit was just fog n smokescreen to mask her singular concern of protecting the financial and banking system from collapse: out of headlines , out of mind.

If you are looking to make a (hopefully) profitable trade of Yellen's back , better to discuss trading tactics such as OCO or FOK brackets

GVI Forex john 11:38 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

The wise move for Yellen would be to say nothing re policy unless the markets turn south again. The Fed meets in the week after next.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:37 GMT October 17, 2014
Shanghai bc
Reply   
ALERT
Entry: Target: Stop:

I just heard from Shanghai bc and after a long absence he will be returning to Global-View. We are thrilled to have him back as he is one of most respected and valued members.

Welcome back bc.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:05 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen

Maybe the question I should have asked is whether a dovish Yellen is a USD negative?

Please post your thoughts during this lull

GVI Forex john 11:05 GMT October 17, 2014
CALENDAR: Fed Chair Janet Yellen

Markets are waiting for the Yellen Comments on the NY Open. Former Fed Chair Bernanke would typically stick to his topic in cases like this.

If she does choose to comment, she runs the risk of disappointing the markets no matter what she says.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:02 GMT October 17, 2014
Yellen
Reply   
...
Entry: Target: Stop:

Markets are on hold until Yellen speaks. In the meantime, feel free to suggest trading scenarios for what she might say, such as

1) Rates likely to stay low for longer

2) Economic recovery remains on track (suggests rate hike path is unchanged)

3) Low inflation, modest wage growth gives Fed flexibility

4) Any others?

GVI Forex john 11:02 GMT October 17, 2014
CALENDAR: Fed Chair Janet Yellen
Reply   
October 17 Speech - Chair Janet L. Yellen
Economic Opportunity
At the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Economic Conference: Inequality of Economic Opportunity, Boston, Massachusetts
8:30 a.m. ET (12:30 GMT)

Webcast: Economic Opportunity

Paris ib 10:53 GMT October 17, 2014
Addicted Markets

The politicians are beholden to the largest demographic. And they ruthlessly go for divide and conquer by appealing to selfishness. I wouldn't want to be an out of work Australian right now given the hideous changes made to the already inadequate dole. Slave labour anyone? Jeez.

GVI Forex john 10:47 GMT October 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Here are some initial parameters on which to focus today:

EURUSD LOD 1.2781 is its pivot point (1.2782).
I would be looking for stops to be building at that level.

R1 1.2859 (1.2837 HOD) is intact.

Trading Ideas? Perhap take a short on the short side of EURUSD with a close stop. if 1.2782 gets approached again?

Sydney ACC 10:45 GMT October 17, 2014
Addicted Markets

And capital is eroded through inflation and drawdowns to meet living expenses.
Australian superannuation accounts have one of the highest ratios of funds invested in equities. Over the least three years that has helped maintain high rates of return for those with a major proportion of their funds in equities. On the other hand those with their capital invested in a secure fund are getting almost nothing. After the fund takes their commission (1% to 3%) and government income tax of 15% on earnings is paid there is little to no return to the accountholder. The ramifications of the zero interest rate policy will be felt for years to come. Regardless whether workers are required in future to work until they are older, when they eventually retire they aren't going to have an income sufficient to maintain a decent lifestyle.
I'd say "that when the chickens come home to roost" our children and grandchildren will see at as another example of the babyboomers milking the honeypot again.

Paris ib 10:44 GMT October 17, 2014
Addicted Markets

John I'm pretty sure QE isn't even supposed to help the economy. That's just the publicity. What it does is allow the Government to fund itself at low rates and thus avoid a debt spiral.

GVI Forex Blog 10:32 GMT October 17, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Risk appetite found its groove again after numerous central bankers seem to go out of their way to express dovish views to help calm the markets over the past 24 hours (Fed's Bullard, BOE Haldane and ECB's Coeure the most notable). Equity markets rebounded while peripheral yield finally edged lower. The USD was marginally softer against the European pairs as the NY morning approached.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Central bankers seem to go out of their way to express dovish views to help calm the markets

GVI Forex john 10:19 GMT October 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


USD PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:

UPDATED: USD & EUR Pivots. Complete Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System




GVI Forex john 10:05 GMT October 17, 2014
Bank of England Chief Economist Haldane

I'm not sure if the BOE is putting the early 2015 rate hike on ice?

GVI Forex john 10:03 GMT October 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

implied open
DJ +140
S&P +40

10-yr 2.192%

GVI Forex john 09:58 GMT October 17, 2014
Bank of England Chief Economist Haldane
Reply   
On preventing long-term U.K. stagflation...

"Put in rather plainer English, I am gloomier," Haldane said. "This implies (UK) interest rates could remain lower for longer, certainly than I had expected three months ago."... REUTERS

GVI Forex john 09:50 GMT October 17, 2014
Addicted Markets

ACC- bank CD's in the U.S. pay below 1.00% on a one year deposit. This has been for over 5 years now and is particularly burdensome on those living on a fixed income. Of course in Japan rates have been near zero for two decades. My problem is I don't see QE helping any economy.

SaaR KaL 09:48 GMT October 17, 2014
Bullard perfect timing before option expiration

Bullard / Stalin...Hamana Gugu
crashing NXD...Like right now
Very bad people

Paris ib 09:37 GMT October 17, 2014
Addicted Markets

If she's got 500k in cash and a fully paid off family home she's not poor. The Australian government needs to reassess its asset test.

Amman wfakhoury 09:37 GMT October 17, 2014
EURJPY ,EURUSD , GOLD big move

all movements are consolidation

PAR 09:36 GMT October 17, 2014
Bullard perfect timing before option expiration
Reply   
"The big event from yesterday’s trading session was of course the comment from St Louis Fed President Bullard who suggested the Fed should consider delaying the end of QE3 when it meets on 28th-29th October. The comment helped reverse renewed dollar gains after Wednesday’s sell-off while 10-year US Treasury yields moved higher and the equity markets stabilised."

"While the comment is certainly notable it remains questionable whether Bullard’s view implies a real chance of a delay being agreed. Of course a lot depends on how the markets are behaving in the days of the meeting but Bullard’s views on the economy and policy are at the very least best described as “fluid”! I’ve seen this morning a description of Bullard as an “arch hawk” – we disagree with that description."

"Bullard is best described as sitting more centrally with a tendency to swing from hawk to dove and back again. He went from hawk to then earlier this year shifting to a more dovish stance due to concerns over inflation."

"Then as recently as 3rd October he argued that the Fed had shown considerable patience already in not raising rates and repeated that rates should be raised in Q1 2015. Indeed, while suggesting a QE delay yesterday Bullard was not willing to change his view on a Q1 2015 rate increase."

"So we’re not convinced that Bullard is indicative of FOMC thinking and believe the FOMC will at this stage still be leaning for a QE3 end later this month. Of course, the meeting is still just under two weeks away, so a lot will depend on financial market developments between now and then."

Amman wfakhoury 09:36 GMT October 17, 2014
EURJPY ,EURUSD , GOLD big move

no level confirmed yet

Sydney ACC 09:13 GMT October 17, 2014
Addicted Markets

While QE benefits the rich, the poor and not so wealthy are not the only ones getting hit.
Here's a real-life example.
My mother-in-law lives off the interest earned from a term deposit.
In December 2009 I invested her money for three years at 7.5% which generated $37,500 per annum. She was entitled to a part pension but had to pay income tax. At current rates she would have been square.
In December 2012 the term deposit was renewed for a further three years at 4.5%. Her income declined to $22,500. Since then she receives $12,000.
Next year the deposit falls due again. Current three year rate is 3.7%. Her income will reduce to $18,500, She will then receive $15,000 from the government.
There's also an assets test for Australian pensions. A single person can own $772,000, excluding the family home and still claim a pension. At the interest rate in 2009 the pensioner would have paid the taxman $10,000.
In 2012 the pensioner receives $3,500.
In 2015 the pensioner receives $ 8,100.
This is happening as the population ages and government finances are stressed.

SaaR KaL 09:11 GMT October 17, 2014
Day's Trades

again if you use that equation for EURGBP
you get
0.8084 0.7987 ...
I am bullish till 0.82 area
so I am buying :)

GVI Forex Blog 09:02 GMT October 17, 2014
Markets Appear to be Cautious Into the Weekend. North American Calendar Active
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CA- CPI, US- Yellen, Housing Starts & Permits, University of Michigan (preliminary)

Fed Chair Yellen speaks early today. It is uncertain if she will comment on the markets or stick to her topic. The focus today will be on North America with Canadian CPI data in the spotlight.

Markets Appear to be Cautious Into the Weekend. North American Calendar Active

SaaR KaL 08:59 GMT October 17, 2014
Day's Trades

if you use that equation...eurusd
should give an output of this
1.2907 1.2707

SaaR KaL 08:56 GMT October 17, 2014
Day's Trades

For those that want a Level to work with to accumulate only..
use this on excel with daily data in descending order...with last date in cell a1...again this is only to accumulate...not a general rule


High=INDEX(LINEST($C$2:$C$5,$A$2:$A$5,1,1),1,1)*$A$1+INDEX(LINEST($C$2:$C$5,$A$2:$A$5,1,1),1,2)

Low=INDEX(LINEST($D$2:$D$5,$A$2:$A$5,1,1),1,1)*$A$1+INDEX(LINEST($D$2:$D$5,$A$2:$A$5,1,1),1,2)

Polokwane CdP 08:56 GMT October 17, 2014
EURJPY ,EURUSD , GOLD big move

Dear Sir

Any numbers confirmed ?

We really appreciated your calls !

GVI Forex john 08:52 GMT October 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed RisK
Reply   

08:50 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Early in European trading, markets appear to be taking a cautious MIXED RISK posture into the weekend.  Far East equities closed mixed. At this hour,  key  bourses in Europe are higher. U.S. share futures are now  pointed higher. .

In overseas activity,  the U.S. 10-yr yield has returned to pre--crash levels. 10-yr yields in the bund remain depressed while and gilts yields are normalizing as well. Peripheral bond yields are lower, Greek yields are now pressing 9.00%




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


PAR 08:25 GMT October 17, 2014
Addicted Markets

ECB MERSCH: EVIDENCE QE WIDENS INCOME INEQUALITY, NON-STANDARD MEASURES HAVE TO BE TEMPORARY - MNI

PAR 08:15 GMT October 17, 2014
Addicted Markets
Reply   
Stock markets sharply higher on James Bullard promisses that more drugs will be coming . Markets stay addicted on free central bank money and can no longer functions as captitalistic free markets . It is all about central bankers helping the rich and that has killed creative destruction .

TREVISO Kilian 08:02 GMT October 17, 2014
EURJPY ,EURUSD , GOLD big move

up or down.. what do you think?

Amman wfakhoury 07:23 GMT October 17, 2014
EURJPY ,EURUSD , GOLD big move
Reply   
EURJPY ,EURUSD , GOLD all ready for big move.

SaaR KaL 06:33 GMT October 17, 2014
Day's Trades

Cable for today
9/26/2013 1.6137 1.5956

For Monday
1.6244 1.6084

SaaR KaL 06:24 GMT October 17, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
wrote a small algorithm this morning...to find a historical day ...like the day before...That is nearest in shape (Open High Low Close)...as the day before...then to take one more day from that (To call it today)
gives this date as very similar for today (Including Error)

11/22/2012 1.28279 1.28977 1.28215 1.28822

Include error gives this as worst range for High and Low
11/22/2012 1.2941 1.2778


GVI Forex Blog 03:55 GMT October 17, 2014 Reply   
A quiet day for Dow but a sharp intraday recovery of Dax, just like the US index a day back

Morning Briefing : 17-Oct-2014 -0354 GMT

sd sf 03:02 GMT October 17, 2014
Morning

pretty much the story of Asia - was initial short covering in xxx/jpy

171.50 gbpyen 93.50 audyen

but since hitting those points - its cooling off .. in terms of the USD it was selling first and buying back second - the opposite of what would have been a more ideal trade... going into Europe.

we will have to see from here.

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:58 GMT October 17, 2014
AceTrader Oct 17: Intra-Day News and Views(USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

17 Oct 2014 01:33GMT

USD/JPY - ....... Statement from BoJ Kuroda, quote:
'there is no doubt BoJ will end QQE if Japan hits 2% inflation and this price level is maintained stably;
too early to debate exit strategy for QQE now, how to exit will depend on market, economic developments at the time;
talking about specific exit strategies now could cause confusion when communicating with market.'

While statement from BoJ Deputy Gov Iwata quote:
'BoJ is internally making ssimulations on exit strategy, but too early to consider one now;
Japan still half way in meeting boJ's 2% inflation target.'

Japan's FinMin Taro Aso said no plan now to review Japan's foreign reserves.

Friday will see the release of Japan's Tankan, Germany's whole price index, eurozone GDP, U.S. building permits and housing starts, Canada's CPI and preliminary U.S. University of Michigan sentiment.

Syd 01:29 GMT October 17, 2014
GBP/USD Biased Up as Sterling Demand on Cross Trades Support -- Market Talk
Reply   
GBP/USD is likely to trade in a higher range Friday, supported by waning investor risk aversion and sterling demand on cross trades versus major currencies. But GBP/USD gains are tempered by improved USD sentiment. The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD & stochastics are bullish. Resistance is at 1.6126-1.6135 (Monday's high-Oct. 10 high); a breach would expose the upside to 1.6226 (Oct. 9 high). Support is at 1.6009 (hourly chart), then at 1.5940 (Thursday's low). Spot GBP/USD is at 1.6083.

Syd 01:27 GMT October 17, 2014
USD Possibly Overvalued Compared With Treasury Yields -- Market Talk
Reply   
The USD fell against rivals other than the JPY in New York trading hours despite upbeat U.S. economic indicators, in a sign that the greenback at the moment is possibly overvalued compared with the level of Treasury yields, says J.P. Morgan in a morning note. "The USD shows only a limited decline, when compared with the magnitude of recent falloff in U.S. interest rates." Even assuming an end to the cycle (in which negative surprises from U.S. economic indicators diminish hopes for the Fed's monetary tightening and then pulls down U.S. bond yields), it is uncertain if the USD will strengthen against its rivals across the board. The USD/JPY is now at 106.37 against 106.33 late Thursday in New York.

GVI Forex 01:21 GMT October 17, 2014
Do You Want to be a Successful Forex Trader? Part Two



In Part one we discussed the importance of having a business plan and suggested a strategy that would help achieve it. In Part one we focused on the revenue side. In Part two, the focus will be on the cost side, perhaps the most important factor in being a successful trader. As with any business, revenue has to exceed costs to be profitable. It is no different in trading.

Do You Want to be a Successful Forex Trader? Part Two

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:43 GMT October 17, 2014
EURUSD



4 hour chart- see key levels above 1.2850 and why 1.29-1.30 is the tough zone

GVI Forex Blog 00:23 GMT October 17, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
7:30pm EDT * Demand for yen softens as Wall St finds a floor

* Sterling broadly firmer as euro stays on defensive

* Speeches by ECB's Coeure and Fed's Yellen next in focus

FOREX-Yen steps back as some calm returns to markets

dc CB 00:19 GMT October 17, 2014
Ebola in the USA

it's gonna be 72deg in DC tom...I want to hit the links...this Ebola stuff is a real pain.

dc CB 00:17 GMT October 17, 2014
Ebola in the USA

In Oval w/ Adviser Lisa Monaco (left) and @SecBurwell (center), Pres Obama recommends everyone get flu shots.

Pres Obama says the risks of catching Ebola "remain low for ordinary folks."

If experts recommend travel ban or other steps, "we'll do it," says Pres Obama.

Pres Obama says it may be appropriate to appoint a person to oversee Ebola response. Will let us know if he does.

Mark Knoller Verified Twitter acnt CBS News White House Correspondent

Syd 00:12 GMT October 17, 2014
Aussie dollar and where it might be headed
Reply   
For a look at what's going on with the Aussie dollar and where it might be headed, currency analyst Jo Masters joins Switzer TV

AUD

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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