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Forex Forum Archive for 10/20/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex 23:50 GMT October 20, 2014
Can Forex Trading Be Made Simple?




I am not sure the word simple should be in a forex trading dictionary or any trading dictionary for that matter but there is a way to look at the market that should make it clearer to trade. There are some in the market who like to project themselves as fortune tellers, but in the end all they are doing is pointing out the risks. There is no crystal ball for forecasting the future but there is a way to look at the market that should make it simpler to trade.

Can Forex Trading Be Made Simple?

GVI Forex john 21:43 GMT October 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



October 20, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, October 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Trade. CN- GDP US- Existing Homes Sales

  • Far East: JP- Trade. CN- GDP
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • Noth America: US- Existing Homes Sales, API Energy


dc CB 20:53 GMT October 20, 2014
IBM

AAPL repurchased $17 Billion in stock in the quarter

GVI Forex john 20:38 GMT October 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
TUESDAY
00:30 JP Trade-- key economic sector
02:00 CN GDP-- critical economic measure
14:00 US Existing Homes-- top housing measure
WEDNESDAY

01:30 AU CPI -- RBA target   
08:30 GB BOE Minutes-- key part of policy
12:30 CA Retail Sales--  key demand measure  
12:30 US CPI -- Fed targets inflation
14:00 CA BOC Rates+MPR -- policy seen steady
23:45 NZ 3Q CPI RBNZ-- targets inflation
THURSDAY
01:45 CN HSBC flash PM-- universal economic survey
07:28 DE MFG PMI flash-- universal economic survey
07:28 DE SVC PMI flash -- universal economic survey
07:58 EZ flash MFG PMI -- universal economic survey
07:58 EZ flash SVC PMI -- universal economic survey
08:30 GB Ret Sls --key demand measures
12:30 US Initial Claims--freshest jobs data  
13:45 US Mfg MKt PMI flash-- universal economic survey
FRIDAY
08:30 GB GDP-- broadest measure of economy
14:00 US New Homes Sales-- housing measure

GVI Forex john 20:30 GMT October 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

CLOSING LEVELS...




sd sf 20:07 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

for sure Red - I don't see it differently than that.

Today here we do have important date though so if it is out of line - the market will react.

Mtl JP 20:00 GMT October 20, 2014
Ebola in the USA

amazing

Nigeria declared Ebola-free in 'spectacular success story'; doctors say fluids saved lives

simply amazing (to me at least)
and hopefully an inspiration

london red 19:56 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

sf, as you say, they retrace but buy the dip. all on an upward tilt for now. high of day pretty much as you expect and now that below 06, you fancy them to test the downside asia/london am. below 2792 brings on 12748 test. maybe they can touch the trendline if under there, or maybe we need another day or two. but you fancy it to get done before another upside run to take the high on this particular pullback.

Livingston nh 19:54 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

Depending on what Republicans get elected the Yellen Fed could be toast - everybody needs a scapegoat // Ben got out of Dodge just in time but he took his map out of the Money Swamp

LAME DUCKS all around?

GVI Forex john 19:45 GMT October 20, 2014
CHART POINTS- Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

sd sf 19:44 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

don't get me wrong PAR - if Yellen says - well we don't look like hiking for 12 months - because everything could collapse at any minute - then I'm sure EUR would be a buy

but to me the US is not about to Fade away - just things aren't moving as fast as the market would like... so it rallies and it retraces.

sd sf 19:39 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

every EUR rally seems to get retraced .. doesn't appear the safest currency to be in.

GOLD is above 1245 - so $yen probably has to test this 75-76 level soon and perhaps drop down to 58-60

which is going to boost AUD + NZD

Its all CHINA here in Asia today + RBA Minutes .. so some money to be made if your around to trade it.

Paris ib 19:38 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

Plus the market is mega long USDs already.

PAR 19:35 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

Yellen also more and more involved in helping democrats win mid term elections e.g. all that inequality talk .
Definitely no pro dollar .

Livingston nh 19:30 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

If the FOMC stays dovish after Weds CPI it may have a problem into Q3 GDP fig - credibility is key - the predictive ability of the FOMC has always been questionable // week before US elections can FOMC still be downbeat?

PAR 19:25 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

EURUSD trading higher as market afraid of another dovish Yellen surprise at the next Fed meeting .

Paris ib 19:25 GMT October 20, 2014
AUD and a bit of geopolitics

“We are in a really tough period,” Mr Stokes said.

Another bear

Livingston nh 19:22 GMT October 20, 2014
STOCKS

SPX 1875 at some point tomorrow ?? Probably coming out of Europe -- ECB purchase program?? Peripheral yields higher on news that all sovereign is not equal?; AQR countdown

Paris ib 19:21 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

It's a relative game. Whose balance sheet do you prefer? The FED's or the ECB's?

For now and going into the FOMC and the Mid Term elections risk is history.

Don't Worry

PAR 19:16 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

ECB planning to buy all assets of bad bank Espirito Santo and all assets which Montei Di Passchi was unable to sell .
Should be good for Euro .

Paris ib 19:16 GMT October 20, 2014
AUD and a bit of geopolitics

"China consumes about 60% of global iron ore production, an extraordinarily high share probably unmatched in history..... I adjusted my outlook downwards and proposed that iron ore prices would fall below $50 a ton before the end of the decade."

Bearish on the Australian economy, commodity prices but not necessarily on the AUD, where he sits undecided.... hence the possible Spain analogy where the currency was not the adjustment mechanism.

Makes interesting reading.

Australia is the New Spain

london red 19:04 GMT October 20, 2014
STOCKS

s&p 200 day 1908 (emini about 6 pts less)

Livingston nh 19:02 GMT October 20, 2014
MIXED RISK: IBM Earnings Report weighs on DJIA. Key Data Tuesday

re: IBM - old rule used to be $10 earnings marked a market watershed - post split $20 was the marker -- I don't think Big Blue slips into the fade of the other hi-tek folks - it still has more on the shelf than it can market yet

dc CB 18:57 GMT October 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

two people "wrote" this short report and to the joy of all, neither used the word "fraud" or any other Thesaurus implicated words or phrases. That's why 2 were assigned. One to keep watch on the other.
_______________________________________________________

A federal housing regulator on Monday announced a plan that could ease tight credit and allow more people to qualify for mortgages in an attempt to get the nation’s housing market back on track.

The plan, announced at a convention of mortgage bankers, includes offering reassurances to lenders that fear they could suffer unpredictable losses on the loans they sell to the government.

The move in large part is intended to reassure banks that have had to pay tens of billions of dollars to settle legal cases in the wake of the housing crisis and buy back bad loans sold to Fannie and Freddie. To avoid having to make those payments again, many lenders now demand borrowers meet stricter requirements for loans known in the industry as overlays.

Federal Housing Finance Agency Unveils Plan to Loosen Mortgage Rules

Livingston nh 18:36 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

any news on ECB purchases

Livingston nh 18:33 GMT October 20, 2014
STOCKS

PAR - treasurys are still not sure as yield drops - rates are still the key to currency and stock -- tomorrow tells the tale for stox (post opex) // full disclosure - I have looked for a second downmove since JAN w/o joy

GVI Forex Blog 18:32 GMT October 20, 2014
MIXED RISK: IBM Earnings Report weighs on DJIA. Key Data Tuesday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Trade. CN- GDP US- Existing Homes Sales

With the trading focus on equities, a disappointing earnings report by IBM weighed disproportionately on the fundamentally-flawed DJIA

RISK-OFF: IBM Earnings Report weighs on DJIA. Key Data Tuesday

dc CB 18:30 GMT October 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

I guess saying that there were way too many Short and they all got their a#s handed to them wouldn't make for much of a column...and it would make the Hallowed Bond Market seem too much like a casino.

Instead:

Across Wall Street, a search for explanations has begun.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The white-knuckle move by the 10-year Treasury continues to stun traders and investors. “If you are steeped in bond market lore, you will be telling your grandchildren about this move,” James A. Bianco, president of Bianco Research, said.

In some ways, the wild ride could be shrugged off as one of those inexplicable things that occasionally happen in markets. But the plunge in the Treasury yield could be a sign of structural weakness in the market. And this volatility caught the eye of Wall Street’s main regulator, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. At an already-scheduled meeting on Thursday with representatives of Wall Street bond-trading firms, Wednesday’s movements in the Treasury market were discussed....

The so-called Treasury Market Practices Group meets nine times a year at the New York Fed. It publishes an agenda and, after delays of several weeks, releases minutes of its meetings. The minutes for the September meeting, for instance, noted that the group had discussed market reactions to certain events, as well as failed trades in Treasuries.

Seeking a Cause After 10-Year Treasury Bond’s Unnerving Move

PAR 18:19 GMT October 20, 2014
STOCKS
Reply   
James Bullard squeezed all the shorts out of the market just before the option expiration . So there are no sellers left in the markets .

london red 18:07 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

Jay fwiw i use charts which combine sunday night session with monday. that way you get the full 24 hours for the monday session.

PAR 18:04 GMT October 20, 2014
CHINA
Reply   
As seen often recently, China will save the world . Chinese economic growth will be much stronger than expected . Chinese stock market has been performing very well , expectations of GDP growth came down to 7.2.-7.5 so annual growth around 8% will be greeted with excitement by the markets .

dc CB 17:43 GMT October 20, 2014
POMO
Reply   
3 this week

1 done today $1.135
Tues $1.40 - $1.70 billion
Thurs $1.35 - $1.65 billion

Last one next Mon $0.85 - $1.05 billion

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:41 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd



Daily chart

london red 17:31 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

daily. 6th and 15th october lows. not 5th which was the ltd as it would cross the 6th.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:23 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

Red, what time frame for the trendline? I show 1.2700 on the daily chart and current 4 hour trendline is 1.2690.

london red 17:11 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

euro making lower daily highs recently pulling back to trendline test today at 12670. tomorrow the trendline is at 12686, thats not far below tomorrows 20 day ma.
you fancy a test of todays low tomorrow, before an attempt to the topside. often euro shakes the tree to lose the weak fruit before any run up. as long as todays high is no higher than 12820/25 which is looking to be the case, we should test the downside tomorrow early to mid session and then we either continue or reverse to the topside.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:02 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

If you count 2 days when the high was 1.2699, it has been 19 days in a row that a big figure has traded in the EURUSD.

See now if 1.28 can trade to make it 20 days -- just traded so 20 days in a row. Incredible pattern on a day where it looked like 1,.27 would be the big figure that would trade.

Tallinn viies 16:54 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
sold euros at 1,2794. stop at 1,2844
target 1,2690

dc CB 16:22 GMT October 20, 2014
IBM



I have always wondered what IBM does? I guess we got an answer today?

It issues debt and buys back its stock...

Or why going forward the end of QE and ZIRP will hurt "earnings"/share on Stox. After all IBM is a Bellweather.

IBM buys

dc CB 16:15 GMT October 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off



all better now.

GOT PK 15:58 GMT October 20, 2014
USDJPY

red - it´s a long term play. funds will likely be remitted on a purchase-to-purchase basis, so I don´t know if any impact at all in the larger scheme.
john - it´s 43b gbp, not jpy.

london red 15:47 GMT October 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

i have 12792 as a mini pivot to take us to 12806

Provo John 15:39 GMT October 20, 2014
USDJPY

Then that makes a lot more sense with 7b from stocks and 43b from bonds.

london red 15:37 GMT October 20, 2014
USDJPY

fwiw. euro has a negative yield but quite a lot of european property has a depressed price but a good yield in prime location, beating any western bonds hands down. capital gains are nice to have but may not been seen for a while (but will in time) and the juicy yield helps, while capital risk can be hedged away leaving a good yield, beating bonds (and you are not buying anywhere near the top of the market which is the risk with sovereign bonds). if you looking beyond prime location (or prime sites in secondary locations as i call them), yields move to double figures but more hands on work require to milk it.
this investment will be a buffer to the outflows from euroland, not enough to stop the euro falling longer term as a return to growth will be required for that, but just smooths out the downside a bit.

Miami JN 15:32 GMT October 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

I just saw a comment on cnbc that one reason why European stocks are weaker is that the eurusd has stopped falling.

GOT PK 15:29 GMT October 20, 2014
USDJPY

john - as I understand it, from existing domestic funds. part of the plan to diversify out of domestic bonds.

Provo John 15:24 GMT October 20, 2014
USDJPY

PK, are those new funds or diversification of existing foreign assets?

GVI Forex john 15:23 GMT October 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk


15:25 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Heading into the close of European trade, markets have shifted into a MIXED RISK posture as U.S.  equity markets have held. A large part of the decline in the DJIA is attributed to weakness in IBM. Equities in Far East trade ended broadly higher. A highlight of European bourses has been DAX weakness. U.S. share futures are mixed at this hour.

The U.S. 10-yr yields are steady. 10-yr yields in the bund are steady while gilt yields are down. Peripheral bond yields are up, Greek yields remain close to 8.00%




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


GVI Forex Blog 15:19 GMT October 20, 2014
Global markets
Reply   
The S&P500 and Nasdaq are seeing modest gains this morning after a wild week, while the DJIA is being weight down by the 8% slide in IBM shares.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: After the Storm

GOT PK 15:09 GMT October 20, 2014
USDJPY

to add; they are also diversifying overseas, including alternative assets. right now in the process of establishing a London office, covering purchasing commercial real estates all over Europe and with a small warchest of £43b!

Dillon AL 15:01 GMT October 20, 2014
USDJPY

hrly close < >106.80-90 will set the bias for the rest of the week

Provo John 14:57 GMT October 20, 2014
USDJPY

Thanks Jay.

I think the gap up was a bit of overreaction as the foreign asset allocation is only going to increase by at most 7% (8bln) whereas the domestic investment is double that. The gap is filled so we shall see where we go from here.

GVI Forex john 14:51 GMT October 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Equities broadly recovering after there has been no follow-through on initial weakness. I don't have a good handle on how much of the DJIA weakness is IBM.

Forex markets look reluctant to react immediately to the higher S&P

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:43 GMT October 20, 2014
USDJPY

John, great to see you.

We posted that last night and was one reason USDJPY gapped higher at the opening (click on this thread to see discussion)

Provo John 14:35 GMT October 20, 2014
USD Pivot Points

As for jpy Jay, overnight the Japanese Government Pension Fund (1.2 trl in assets) stated it would boost its investments in domestic stocks from 12% to 25% and reduce its bond portfolio. By law they can hold at max 30%. They now hold ~14b and can increase up to 36b. This MAY encourage some repatriation (especially via eurjpy).

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:23 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd



I posted this earlier on GVI Forex and note the pause below 1.2784 (last 1.2765)

Monday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:11 GMT 10/20/2014 - My Profile
Trapped like a rat

EURUSD risk still on downside as long as it stays below 1.2784 with downside limited as long as 1.2750+

london red 14:20 GMT October 20, 2014
IBM

most growth stocks eventually become utilities.

GVI Forex john 14:12 GMT October 20, 2014
IBM

I gather IBM accounts for the entire DJIA decline. Stocks are driving RISK-OFF or RISK-ON.

GVI Forex john 14:05 GMT October 20, 2014
IBM

I have always wondered what IBM does? I guess we got an answer today? Nothing! I hate to see a once great company go the way of Xerox, Kodak or HP.

GVI Forex Blog 13:57 GMT October 20, 2014 Reply   
October 20, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, October 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Trade. CN- GDP US- Existing Homes Sales

GVI Forex Data Outlook for October 21, 2014

GVI Forex john 13:55 GMT October 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



October 20, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, October 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Trade. CN- GDP US- Existing Homes Sales

  • Far East: JP- Trade. CN- GDP
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • Noth America: US- Existing Homes Sales, API Energy


Livingston nh 13:37 GMT October 20, 2014
QE4

The Fed has consistently refused to guide the market with respect to its reinvestment of earnings on massive portfolio - this is a mini QE (the hidden Stash), but unknown in duration or target (equal re-allocation to source of funds or perhaps rebuild the s/t positions) -- maturity of most of the FED holdings is well beyond five years

MBS commitments as of last Thursday are for $53 bio - Taper, maybe not so much --- ADDICTS, all of them


london red 13:35 GMT October 20, 2014
USD Pivot Points

thru 77 john and likely to be touched

GVI Forex john 13:30 GMT October 20, 2014
USD Pivot Points

Key to path of USDJPY may be if DJIA and S&P trade significantly lower.

Recall short USDJPY and long EURUSD are RISK-OFF trades.

GVI Forex john 13:26 GMT October 20, 2014
USD Pivot Points

USD PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:

USD
JPY pivot today is 106.63. Waiting to see if it comes into play? thoughts?

london red 13:18 GMT October 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

yen. 106.64 broken fib. kicked off nasty drop last week.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:16 GMT October 20, 2014
Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

I suggest watching my video update for the week ahead

As part of our trader advocacy, we have added my video outlook for the week ahead to give our members an inkling into how I look at the market. I take a common sense approach that has served me well over the years and hope it helps in your trading journey.

Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

Don't expect a replay of last week

london red 13:16 GMT October 20, 2014
QE4

john, the idea of printing money to kick start the economy is sound, except giving every one a cheque for a thousand bucks was deemed too RECKLESS. it was thought it would be better to recapitalise the RISK AVERSE banks that would then lend accordingly in order to make a profit for themselves whilst giving people the loans they wanted to expand their business/buy a property. hold on...

Mtl JP 13:07 GMT October 20, 2014
QE4

JM there is only one Q in my mind: are the "wise and courageous" being overtaken by events

Mtl JP 13:03 GMT October 20, 2014
QE4

Federal Reserve holds steady amid market volatility - Hilsenrath in WSJ

NY JM 12:58 GMT October 20, 2014
QE4

All these monetary officials are acting like they are rock stars. What happened to these central banks speaking with one voice.

Mtl JP 12:56 GMT October 20, 2014
QE4

Fed's Fisher supports ending QE3 next week

GVI Forex john 12:29 GMT October 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Yes. Thank you! Dax getting slammed -134

GVI Forex john 12:18 GMT October 20, 2014
QE4

JP- In my first my first intermediate economics course in the late 1960's, we learned about the "liquidity trap". In essence, you can't get out of a deep recession by printing money. They figured this out after the 1930's depression. It should come as a surprise to no one that QE does not work.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:11 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

A pity party

Mtl JP 12:05 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

Jay 11:56 re hangover: was there a party ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:56 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd



EURUSD One Hour chart.

This chart show 1.2778 as a pivotal level (suggests using 1.2780) with key resistance not until 1.2835-45 and supports at 1.2732 and 1.2705 (also around the 20 day mva)

Price action suggests market still suffering from a hangover from last week. Otherwise stocks would be higher and EURUSD would be closer to 1.27 than 1.28.

GVI Forex john 11:53 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd

viies- we did get a 9 pip pop when the 1.2781 pivot was taken out. You can't epect much more than that this early in the week when a lot of positions have not been accumulated yet.

Mtl JP 11:48 GMT October 20, 2014
QE4

QE didn't, doesn’t and will not work as promoted.
Not in Japan. Not in US. Not in Europe.

What printing money out of thin air does is dilute confidence and instill fear. Sometimes panic.

Tallinn viies 11:41 GMT October 20, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
seems there was no meaningful stops at 1,2780.
back down to the lows now? expect euro to test 1,2705/10 before new test higher

Zurich EG 11:36 GMT October 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Look at the DAX.....

GVI Forex john 11:26 GMT October 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Since our earlier snapshot equity futures in the
U.S. have turned south
DJ -99
SP -6

10-yr 2.197%

GVI Forex john 11:22 GMT October 20, 2014
USD Pivot Points

USD PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:

UPDATED: USD & EUR Pivots. Complete Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System




Mtl JP 11:20 GMT October 20, 2014
QE4

World economy so damaged it may need permanent QE - telegraph
Markets are realising that the five-and-a-half year recovery since the financial crisis may already be over, says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

..."The global slowdown has caught the global authorities off guard, as it always does." ... .. ..."Morgan Stanley calculates that gross global leverage has risen from $105 trillion to $150 trillion since 2007. Debt has risen to 275pc of GDP in the rich world, and to 175pc in emerging markets. Both are up 20 percentage points since 2007, and both are historic records. The Bank for Settlements warns that the world is on a hair-trigger. The slightest loss of liquidity can have "violent" effects"... .. .. "We will find out soon whether or not this a replay of 1937 when the authorities drained stimulus too early, and set off the second leg of the Great Depression." ...
--
Authorities... we do know who the "wise and courageous" - names and adresses - are, don't we .... lets nominate them for some Nobel prize or perhaps lay the blame on them for having sown the seeds for the Ninth Circle (Treachery) of H3ll ... ringed by classical and Biblical giants, who perhaps symbolize pride and other spiritual flaws lying behind acts of treachery

PAR 11:14 GMT October 20, 2014
IBM
Reply   
IBM so obsessed with buying back it own shares that they forgot to look after their real business .

One of the problems of zero rates, extreme financial engineering .

PAR 11:10 GMT October 20, 2014
Central Bankers became Stocbrokers

Sell USD .

GVI Forex 11:05 GMT October 20, 2014
USDJPY

USDJPY trying to fill the gap to 106.89

GVI Forex john 11:00 GMT October 20, 2014
QE4

Pushing on a string

Mtl JP 10:53 GMT October 20, 2014
QE4

GVI Forex john 10:41 - watch the FED's balance sheet and for

"The Federal Reserve, consistent with its responsibilities as the Nation's central bank, affirmed today its readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system"

style headline(s)

London Chris 10:43 GMT October 20, 2014
Central Bankers became Stocbrokers

PAR How can we turn your posts into a trade or an idea for trading?

GVI Forex john 10:41 GMT October 20, 2014
QE4

By this point in time, monthly bond purchases have tapered to almost nothing, plus overnight rates are still near zero. What difference would it make if they delay the final tranche of tapering? Who would even know?

PAR 10:19 GMT October 20, 2014
Central Bankers became Stocbrokers
Reply   
Central bankers have become stockbrokers obsessed with " The stock of the week " and any minor movement in the stockmarket.

Yellen thinks she is the " Wolf of Wallstreet " and the markets needs all pep talk she can give .

And ... it seems to be working .

GVI Forex 10:11 GMT October 20, 2014
QE4

Fed's Bullard suggestion to continue bond purchases unlikely to gain traction

Quotes from Standard Chartered:

-Turning to our expectation for the 28-29 October FOMC meeting, we do not think that James Bullard's suggestion to continue bond purchases, rather than cease them as the Fed had previously telegraphed, will gain traction.

-QE tapering will probably come to an end as expected and we do not foresee any dissention among the doves. Bullard does not vote on the FOMC this year, but we cannot rule out the possibility of a "dissenting statement" to be released shortly after the meeting, a practice increasingly common among dissatisfied non-voters.

Source: FXWire Pro - Research & Analysis

20-October-2014 06:00:26

Hong Kong AceTrader 10:06 GMT October 20, 2014
AceTrader Oct 20: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY)
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

20 Oct 2014 08:43GMT

USD/JPY - ...... BoJ Nagoya branch manager was quoted saying 'many firms in Tokai central Japan region feel rapid fx moves, whether it's yen rise or fall, are undesirable; hard to judge now how recent choppy yen moves affect economy in Tokai region.'

Earlier, comments by Japan's junior coalition party Komeito official, quote:
don't expect gov't to resort to FX manipulation to correct yen weakening; excessive yen weakness wud be unwelcome, nagtive eefects emerging in economy; extra budget needed to deal with stalling economy regardless of decision on next sales tax hike.

Dlr finally pares intra-day gain after opening high abv Fri's 106.95 top to 107.27 in NZ, then climbing to session high of 107.39 in Tokyo as a sharp rally in the Nikkei boosted risk sentiment (Nikke closed up by 578 points at 15111). However, present retreat in the Nikkei futures in Europe (down 80 points at 14040) triggered broad-based buying of yen, price retreated to 107.05, suggesting sideways trading is in store.
Offers are tipped at 107.30/40 n more abv with stops abv 107.50. Initial bids are noted at 107.00/106.90 with some stops below there, however, more buying interest is touted at 106.70/60, suggesting buying dlr on dips is still favoured.

Prague viktor 09:57 GMT October 20, 2014
Q4
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Q4 its just a dream the FED will not take a risk with Q4

PAR 09:54 GMT October 20, 2014
Stoks
Reply   
Looks like FED James Bullard created a bottom in the world stock markets.

With hyperdovish Yellen new highs are coming . Every FED meeting Yellen managed to be more dovish than expected . More worried about USA than about Europe .

GVI Forex Blog 09:32 GMT October 20, 2014
RISK-OFF: Dealers in a Cautious Posture Leading Up to Important Key Fed Meeting Next Week
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: No Major Data

The markets are already starting to set up for the Fed meeting in just over a week's time. As a result, this is an important period for confidence in the financial markets. Those who bought the mid-week dip are hoping that the worst of the correction is in the rear-view mirror. We will be watching how fixed income markets trade as well.

RISK-OFF: Dealers in a Cautious Posture Leading Up to Important Key Fed Meeting Next Week

PAR 09:18 GMT October 20, 2014
QE4

What you say depends on where you sit . Yellen sitting on Blankfeins lap .

GVI Forex john 09:17 GMT October 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply   
09:15 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Early in European trading equity markets remain the focus with no major data set for release today. Equities in Far East trade ended broadly higher on the back of the Friday U.S. stock rebound. The key this week could be if we get through the week unscathed. Bourses in Europe are trading weaker. U.S. share futures are higher. .

The U.S. 10-yr yields steady. 10-yr yields in the bund are lower while gilt yields are down as well. Peripheral bond yields are up, Greek yields remain close to 8.00%




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


Mtl JP 09:10 GMT October 20, 2014
QE4

PAR 07:47 - according to Blankfein: Fed 'wise and courageous' - cnbc

sd sf 08:31 GMT October 20, 2014
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the China Data is the most crucial for Commodity and Stock Markets tomorrow ... so yeah today's move is important --> but tomorrows can either crush it or extend it.

sd sf 08:26 GMT October 20, 2014
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$yen isn't going to trade on its own - its going to be xxx/jpy - so I'm not too bearish on $yen at the moment - despite some initial selling on Europe Open.

Gold as well this 1245 is tough - so that plays a role in $yen as well.

Kolkata 08:22 GMT October 20, 2014
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london red 08:18 GMT October 20, 2014
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gap has just about been filled on usdjpy. res at 107.50 going to take some beating but important to stay abv 106.76 to keep momentum otherwise you can see it tail off pretty fast below there.

Belgrade Knez 08:17 GMT October 20, 2014
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London London

why do you require broker name and MT4 account number for registering to your signals?!?

London London 08:05 GMT October 20, 2014
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Reply   
Sell USDJPY
Entry: 107.026 Target: 106.400 Stop: 107.350

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GVI Forex 08:04 GMT October 20, 2014
USD Pivot Points

USDJPY 107.39 = R2 = TODAY'S HIGH

Coincidence or does this system dork?

london red 07:49 GMT October 20, 2014
Early Europe

eurgbp. multiple supports (ma's fibs trendline) in 7912-17 region. possible inverse shs. pair has bounced well initially off this support and is keeping cable capped under 16130. while eurgbp stays firm euro stays firm and cable under 16130, its a cross play, but if abv 16130 then i suspect dollar will by then by weakening across the board and cable could stretch its legs to 16185.
s&p? surely bull trap at 200 day ma?

PAR 07:47 GMT October 20, 2014
QE4
Reply   
Expectations of QE4 supporting US futures and putting pressure on USD .

sd sf 07:29 GMT October 20, 2014
Early Europe
Reply   
just some of these early stock markets are 0.5%-0.7% weaker

offering $yen some and pushing up Gold a couple of dollars -- this contrasts to the Asia Session where Nikkei was up almost 4%

Mtl JP 07:08 GMT October 20, 2014
Williams Says Fed Faces Greater Downside Risks -- Market Talk

according to the nikkei (up 4%) risk has disappeared
Is Williams or Nikkei the joke ?

Syd 06:06 GMT October 20, 2014
Williams Says Fed Faces Greater Downside Risks -- Market Talk
Reply   
The Federal Reserve has said it believes the risks to the economic outlook are generally balanced. But recent experience clearly makes some policy makers more worried about a renewed deterioration in economic growth than some sudden boom. San Francisco Fed President John Williams said in an interview: "The risks are somewhat asymmetric. Not only are there downside risks that are obvious and we're thinking about them a lot, but they are also asymmetric because of the zero lower bound [referring to short-term nominal interest rates being at or near zero]. I take the downside risk very seriously and I think about them very carefully in thinking about the appropriate time for liftoff."

Syd 05:58 GMT October 20, 2014
American Businesses Are Worried About Europe, Again -- Market Talk
Reply   
Faltering growth, double-digit unemployment and a looming threat of deflation in Europe are causing American businesses to worry--again--about the eurozone's economic woes. According to a survey of corporate economists released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics, 51% of respondents believed the eurozone slowdown would have a "significant" or "minor" negative impact on their businesses. It found that 46% of respondents thought Europe's woes would have no impact, and 3% thought it would have a "minor" positive effect.

GVI Forex Blog 05:50 GMT October 20, 2014 Reply   
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT PERFORMANCE SERVICES INDEX: 58.0 V 57.7 PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND OCT ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 123.4 V 127.7 PRIOR (1-year low) - (KR) SOUTH KOREA SEPT PPI Y/Y: -0.4% (2nd

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Rally led by Nikkei225 on GPIF reallocation chatter - Source TradeTheNews.com

Cape Town LV 04:25 GMT October 20, 2014
meta trade station

HK REVDAX 02:01 GMT 10/20/2014
Is the Metatrade station down today?
TIA
-------------------------------------------
With which broker are you?

GVI Forex Blog 03:40 GMT October 20, 2014 Reply   
Friday turned out to be a boom day for the global equities just as expected, with the Asian

Morning Briefing : 20-Oct-2014 -0339 GMT

Mtl JP 03:14 GMT October 20, 2014
WEEKLY LOOK AHEAD: Stock Correction - October 20, 2014

john 16:19 re "One problem this week was that recent government regulations, which were well-intended but not well thought out, removed needed liquidity from the markets..."
-
Lack of liquidity ... a very very important notion, impressive market reaction to it when players become suddenly gripped by it. The fact that "they" sent out Bullard speaks volumes about many things, not least how fragile and dependent not only the market but the entire US bubble economy is on the QE teet. MSM was quick with assuaging messages of how the correction was necessary and good and that now is yet again time to stop the panic and buy again.

The current rout in oil pricing has been variously bandied about as a political effort to injure Putin to prediction of darkening global economic prospects. But the price rout is not limited to just crude: other commodities are undergoing similar dynamic. FED's overdue tightening of the liquidity tap is bound to reveal the extent of mal-investments .

Me thinks you have touched a very important fundamental point. Odds are we will see a lot more of blood-letting induced by FED's policies - presenting some good profit generating trading opportunities.

HK REVDAX 02:01 GMT October 20, 2014
meta trade station
Reply   
Is the Metatrade station down today?
TIA

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:44 GMT October 20, 2014
AceTrader Oct 20: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY)
Reply   


Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

20 Oct 2014

USD/JPY .......Statement at a quarterly meeting of the central bank's regional branch managers BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, quote:
-Japan's economy continues to recover moderately as a trend
- effect of sales tax hike on economy likely to gradually ease
-Japan banking system maintaining stability
-QQE exerting intended effects
-BOJ will maintain qqe for as long as needed to achieve 2 pct inflation in stable manner
-BOJ will adjust policy as needed, looking at upside, downside risks to economy, prices
-some weakness seen in output

The main driver of today's gap-up open on the dlr in NZ was a w/end report by Bloomberg citing source from the Nikkei.

Bloomberg reported Japan's $ 1.2 tln retirement fund will increase its allocation target for shares to about 25% from 12%, the Nikkei newspaper reported today without attribution.

Nikkei also said GPIF will also boost its holdings of foreign bonds n stocks to about a combined 30% from 23%, while reducing domestic notes to the 40% level from 60%.

Takatoshi Ito, a member of the panel said that the GPIF would be "stupid? to announce its new investment strategy before adjusting asset allocations. Publishing targeted weightings in advance would move markets, forcing the fund to buy at highs and sell at lows, he said in an interview on Oct. 14.

The fund's asset review could come as late as December, as GPIF officials, members of its investment committee n the health ministry have different views on the best timing and approach, Ito said.

Mtl JP 01:38 GMT October 20, 2014
History Flash Blast From the Past
Reply   
October 19, 1987 (aka "Black Monday")
DJIA dropped 508 points to 1738.74 (22.61%)
srce.: wikipedia
It does not mention that US Treasury bond rallied 11 points

GVI Forex 00:47 GMT October 20, 2014
USDJPY

... The greenback got a further lift against the yen after reports that Japan's $1.2 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) could boost foreign asset holdings, seen spurring demand for foreign currencies....RTRS

 




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Mon 27 May 2019
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Tue 28 May 2019
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