sd sf 23:17 GMT October 23, 2014
Morning
Reply
our PM here pointing out the risks of a terror attack here at some point this morning on radio.
"Prime Minister Tony Abbott concedes the Australian War Memorial could be a target for terrorists wanting to attack a symbol of the nation's identity.
Mr Abbott said there was a "copy cat tendency" among people who thought they were called by God to kill.
"It's difficult to be constantly on top of this," he said.
"We must be constantly vigilant because it only takes a very small number of fanatical extremists that are reckless as to their own life and prepared to kill without mercy or pity to cause mayhem."
As far as Asia goes - not trading any automated strategies for today or monday .. the only thought I have is in $yen we will have some exporters come in and sell initially and once it finds a base probably rise again.
This Ebola rumor is a concern which is why I'd think people will wait for any early selling to end .. and look for that base to start buying from.
Mtl JP 23:02 GMT October 23, 2014
Yes or No
any idea if or not
http://www.fdic.gov/regulations/laws/rules/8000-1200.html#8000cla1014
§ 1014. Loan and credit applications generally; renewals and discounts; crop insurance.
is not only a valid law but is applicable and if yes but is not, why not ?
dc CB 22:49 GMT October 23, 2014
Yes or No
Once upon a time, those who made loans would profit only if the loan were paid back. If the borrower defaulted, the lender would suffer.
That idea must have seemed quaint in 2005, as the mortgage lending boom reached a peak on the back of mushrooming private securitizations of mortgages, which were intended to transfer the risk away from those who made the loans to investors with no real knowledge of what was going on.
Less well remembered is that there was a raft of real estate securitizations once before, in the 1920s. The securities were not as complicated, but they had the same goal — making it possible for lenders to profit without risking capital.
Banks Again Avoid Having Any Skin in the Game
dc CB 22:22 GMT October 23, 2014
Yes or No
There may be worse things to worry about.
__________________________________________
Just when you thought it was safe to assume that Ebola-in-America was fixed (one day into Ron Klain's tenure as Ebola Czar), NYPost reports some rather disquieting news. A New York City doctor - who returned from treating Ebola patients in Guinea 10 days ago - has been rushed under police escort to Bellevue Hospital... He is being tested for Ebola.
Market liquidity has dried up instantly!
*PATIENT BEING TESTED AT BELLEVUE FOR POSSIBLE EBOLA, NYC SAYS
*NYC HEALTH DEPARTMENT TO ISSUE STATEMENT SOON, SPOKESMAN SAYS
*NYC: PATIENT WITH FEVER, GASTROINTESTINAL SYMPTOMS AT BELLEVUE
*NYC SAYS PATIENT EBOLA TEST RESULTS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS
*NYC TRACING ALL OF PATIENT'S CONTACTS
*NYC HEALTH DEPARTMENT ALSO WORKING CLOSELY WITH HHC
Update #2:
POSSIBLE NYC EBOLA PATIENT DID NOT SELF-QUARANTINE: CNN
POSSIBLE NYC EBOLA PATIENT TOOK UBER TO BOWLING ALLEY YDAY: CNN
New York's First Ebola Case?
GVI Forex john 22:16 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
October 23, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, October 24.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB- GDP, US- New Homes Sales
- Far East: No Major Data
- Europe: GB- GDP
- North America: US- New Homes Sales, COT
Livingston nh 22:16 GMT October 23, 2014
Yes or No
I reference the AIG case here and on the poli forum because it is evidence to refute the conspiracy theorists who attribute mystical powers to gov't employees most of whom couldn't begin to spell conspiracy -- why does regulation fail because one smart ass can outwit twenty of these dweebs -- the banks would never settle for the extortion if it was their money - they would hire good lawyers who would destroy the gov't droids in court
Mtl JP 22:12 GMT October 23, 2014
Yes or No
Fed lays out scenarios for 2015 bank stress tests - RTRS
(Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Thursday it would assume wider corporate bond spreads and a higher oil price in the most strenuous scenario it will use in next year's run of its annual check of banks' health. ... . .. the Fed said its "severely adverse" scenario was largely similar to the one it had used in its 2014.../..
-
Qtn to myself: were the banks loaded with $2 trillion worth of bonds and more liabilities (i.e deposits) than "assets" (i.e. performing loans) then they are today and will be tomorrow ?
Livingston nh 22:01 GMT October 23, 2014
Yes or No
AND NO it wasn't a thought out response to send this to the FED - it was Hank and Ben with their hair or lack thereof ON FIRE panic response
Livingston nh 21:56 GMT October 23, 2014
Yes or No
CB - they only went bankrupt because the Gov't didn't direct the funds to a US entity - the morons didn't understand the problem so the solution was wrong -- every "bad" mortgage could have been bought out for a lot less than the various QE solutions - for reference see the Fed balance sheet
the AIG case is representative of the clueless folks decision making ability
Mtl JP 21:55 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
I ve been wondering about some lurking version of Stuxnet , sitting waiting for some trigger : what would go up in price and what down if cell comm were shut down for ... some time
Mtl JP 21:51 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
nh 21:45 ok. not good nuff for profit generation as no way to put some sort of meter / toll on that. so I wait for new improved version.
dc CB 21:47 GMT October 23, 2014
Yes or No
Livingston nh 21:15 GMT
One of the problems w/ housing/mortgage since 2007 was the failure to use Fannie Freddie as the primary conduit for MBS and new mortgage money
in case you hadn't noticed, Fannie and Freddie went bankrupt.
I made a bit of change on them. FNM traded on the NYSE at $35 a share, when I shorted it....went to 0
Livingston nh 21:45 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
JP - when I want the attention of the next generation I merely unplug the router - BUT I am open to other ideas
GVI Forex john 21:44 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Weekly
Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
FRIDAY
08:30 GB GDP-- broadest measure of economy
14:00 US
New
Homes Sales-- housing measure
Livingston nh 21:42 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
JP - sorry I missed your plague inquiry - yes // another reason to sell EUR - the spread of Ebola beyond previous outbreaks is a do-gooder problem in Europe - Trading vessels (and occupants) might be burned in prior centuries - this is no longer ACCEPTABLE -- the new improved Europe allows refugee immigrants so the spread should be quick
In the US we think the do-gooder volunteers should be allowed to spread the virus and the pres, always reluctant to offend, agrees - hence no travel ban or containment until (WAIT FOR IT) the pharma companies gear up (no cure but a daily pill)
the Great Unwashed won't panic because all previous alerts (swine, HK, bird flu etc.- faux science) have been false alarms -- ahh, but when the WOLF finally appears nobody takes warning seriously
ah but I'm sure it will be different this time
Mtl JP 21:37 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
nh 20:49 pray tell how far/close you are to "breaking bad social habits" . I might have a business proposal.
dc CB 21:36 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
The state Department of Health is closely monitoring this potential case and is working with the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene and the Federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to ensure that all appropriate protocols are being followed to protect public health and safety.
This patient is undergoing testing at Bellevue Hospital, which is one of the eight hospitals statewide that Governor Cuomo designated earlier this month as part of his Ebola Preparedness Plan to handle potential cases.
++++++++++++++++
So go about your business, spend, consume, walk around, use Uber... and we'll let u know in 12 hours if this chap that's been in NYC for 10 days is infected with a deadly disease
New York Department Of Health Issues Statement On Suspected Ebola Case
dc CB 21:21 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
GOPRO RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT OPPENHEIMER, PT $45: BBG
sorry Selfie Crowd...get a great shot of the flames and post it on Vimeo.
Livingston nh 21:15 GMT October 23, 2014
Yes or No
One of the problems w/ housing/mortgage since 2007 was the failure to use Fannie Freddie as the primary conduit for MBS and new mortgage money -- instead the Fed jumped into a situation it neither understood nor could help // everything the Fed bought in mortgages was not directed to new mortgages
tokyo ginko 21:01 GMT October 23, 2014
Where's Ginko?
I am long equity index..(asia/japan/USA) so it will be nice if hit 2000..on and off..I may buy/sell to lower my cost..but
first eyeing 109.30 levels..
cheers!
dc CB 20:54 GMT October 23, 2014
Yes or No
Mtl JP 17:54 GMT October 23, 2014 -
what The Banks want in this new deal is a "clause or guarentee" from Freddie/Fannie, that when they write more crappy mortgages with that 3% downpayment, and those mortgages, when package and resold and resold, some to Fannie and Freddie...when that pile of crap blows up again.....THEY CANNOT BE FORCED TO BUY BACK THOSE MORTGAGES.
That's the jist of all this....we must make money available to the commoner so that we can sell off all these old, haven't been lived in for years, houses.
In my area, the northern reach of the Balt Wash DC commuter run(not the Northern Most tho), the builders are putting up $600K to $1.5M houses on what was pristine farmland. Whlie right down the road, houses sit empty, many houses, middleclass stuff that got sold for well over $350K during the Boom...now on some bank's books at Full Value, But it sits empty...for years.
Livingston nh 20:49 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
jp - hehehe I see that lack of response in verbal communication with my grandchildren (my kids know better) - they come into house, say hello and sit at the dining room table and TEXT, PLAY or whatever
I'm working on breaking bad social habits
Mtl JP 20:44 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
dc CB what d u think: where is this heading ?
Livingston nh 20:43 GMT October 23, 2014
Sometimes
Reply
I usually use candlestick chart but sometimes a simple line chart close is useful to simplify things especially when comparing levels thru timeframes - for example, the USD/JPY shows the daily as the weakest chart of the hrly, 4 hrly and wkly - MACD or RSI indicator may help depending on your time trading bubble
dc CB 20:39 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
but AMZN gets a dime for every business they put out of business, and a quarter for every bookstore...
plus 50cents for every Amurican they keep Stupid by shutting down all those bookstores.
all that goes into Jeff's private acct.
GVI Forex john 20:13 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
MSFT beats
Livingston nh 20:09 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
John - but what about EBITDA?? we lose a nickel on every sale but we make it up in volume
one born every minute
GVI Forex john 20:05 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Amazon big miss.
dc CB 20:03 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
POSSIBLE NYC EBOLA PATIENT DID NOT SELF-QUARANTINE: CNN
but all you have to do is drink plently of liquids...yeh that's the ticket.
Mtl JP 20:03 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
nh r u refering to Black Death of 1348/50 which saw the great unwashed lose faith in their then rulers ?
So far I don't see enuff distrust and much less panic sufficient to pull down current social overlord order.
Livingston nh 19:48 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
14th century Europe provides some medical guidelines for dealing with the problem and Monty Python shows the consequences of failure
dc CB 19:42 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
reported as 12hrs for results.
see my NY Post
dc CB 19:07 GMT
he's apparently not just "a healthcare worker" (but maybe that's the Czar at work on the "Story")
Mtl JP 19:36 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
how long for ebola tests results - 15 minutes ?
Livingston nh 19:29 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Nervous markets and the slightest breeze
GVI Forex john 19:28 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Officials say a healthcare worker in New York City is being tested at Bellevue Hospital for possible Ebola- CNBC
News hit Stocks...
Livingston nh 19:27 GMT October 23, 2014
RISK ON: U.S. Equity Markets Rebound as Investors Jump Back in. Flash PMI Data Mixed
the interesting AQR issue is not the number of banks that FAIL but their location and the amount of Capital needed to make them good - where does the money come from?
France and Italy telling EU that budget compliance is unlikely next year - does EU agree or do the miscreants explain the meaning of Sovereignty?
and the ECB and Bundesbank may need to air their laundry in public -- who's in charge here?
LINK
dc CB 19:18 GMT October 23, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
fwiw. the 5 is the only one of the Big 3 (5,10,30) that hasn't closed the Columbus Day Gap
Paris ib 19:14 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
rafe - I don't know what you are talking about. The U.K. establishment wanted a job done. Soros did the job. And he got paid for it. He wasn't betting or guessing or investing. He had the full force of the establishment behind him. He worked for them. People who lost would have been small business people, industry.... the usual non insiders.
Caribbean! Rafe... 19:09 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
IB// I know what your saying but the ground reading was in Soros favor which is why he won in the first place, and the truth is that he made a profit, had they listened to him they would not have been in such a predicament, ground reality is that it's their loss... LOL.
Paris ib 19:02 GMT October 23, 2014
U.S. Stocks Fading
Reply
Sell off on U.S. bonds keeps going. It sure has been an interesting move. Higher rates are not stock market supportive in a 'liquidity driven' rally.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:02 GMT October 23, 2014
STOCKMARKET
Great call!
STOCKMARKET
london red 18:35 GMT 10/23/2014
75/76 s&p. futs 6 pts lower. i bet they pause up there.
Paris ib 18:58 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
rafe - Soros was insider trading for the BOE. That's not possible for most people. It was a h.ell of a time to be in the market o/n rates went up to 500% - you couldn't make money even if you got the direction right. So you know, feed the legend but remember the reality on the ground was different.
Caribbean! Rafe... 18:54 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
The point is that front running the BOE the point is now matter if your a tech, a speck or a fleck, the point is to get on the train before everyone realizes where the moneys flowing, it is known as smart money or FIFO. The public uses the LICO technique, Last In, Candles out...
Caribbean! Rafe... 18:48 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
I'm off boys... see you all in a couple months...
A small piece of motivation for the true bloods.
I'll be reading occasionally but no more posting of targets or clarifying the mysterious adages of "you can only be an analyst or a money manager but not both" which is an erroneous excuse (as that is only creating space for failure). It just depends on what your blood is made of. I speak from experience, I treasure my anonymity, less is more... Long live Soros!!
gl gt.
Paris ib 18:45 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
"the "Soros put" is a legacy hedge position that the 84-year old has been rolling over every quarter since 2010"
That Put
PAR 18:44 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Imho got out at the low last thursday ,as did everyone else interviewed on CNBC and Bloomberg . in current market there are just no sellers, everybody afraid of Yellen & Bullard .
Paris ib 18:38 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
red - yeah it would be good to get details on the Soros put. It's been around a while and keeps going up in value even as its mark to market value must have sunk like a stone.
The Put
Mtl JP 18:35 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
CB 18:11 for the cad$ nothing yet
london red 18:35 GMT October 23, 2014
STOCKMARKET
75/76 s&p. futs 6 pts lower. i bet they pause up there.
PAR 18:33 GMT October 23, 2014
STOCKMARKET
Reply
Dow up more than 300 points . Who is buying . I taught all the smart guys bought last week thursday below 16000 almost a 1000 points lower .
london red 18:33 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
the put is probably only one side of the trade. i was once introduced to some folk that where usually short the index and individual components, the laggards i think,were changed from underweight/overweight at the end of the days trade (or on the open i forget which now). now this was supposed to perform in a bull market amongst others. really its immaterial what they did but i suppose they lost on the short index side.
its also unheard of to have a naked 2 yard position. there ia always the other side. well unless you're jerome and worked for paribas of course.
Paris ib 18:24 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Actually old doesn't cover it. Decrepit does.
Paris ib 18:21 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
He is old. He is finished.
Paris ib 18:21 GMT October 23, 2014
Strategy of Tension
Reply
What it is is 'The Strategy of Tension'. "The strategy of tension is a concept for control and manipulation of public opinion through the use of fear, propaganda, agents provacateurs, terrorism, etc. The aim was to instill fear into the populace while framing communist and left-wing political opponents for terrorist atrocities."
So same old, same old.
The Strategy
PAR 18:17 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
He is rich . Money can buy everything , central bankers , politicians, inside tips etc
dc CB 18:11 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
JP,
what's the story on this?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Reuters reported moments ago, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said on Thursday the government will expedite plans to give more powers of detention and surveillance to security agencies in the wake of an attack on Parliament.
"They need to be much strengthened, and I assure you, Mr. Speaker, that work which is already under way will be expedited," he told the House of Commons, one day after a gunman launched an attack on Parliament and was shot dead.
On the other hand, instead of giving the government even more authoritarian power to do with civilian liberties as it sees fit and appropriate, perhaps the government's agencies could have simply done their work better under the existing laws and regulations, especially after the Sky News report that the Ottawa shooter, Canadian born Michael Zehaf-Bibeau, was already on a terror watch list:
The gunman who killed a soldier in Ottawa and stormed Canada's parliament had been put on a terror watch list, it has emerged.
The Canadian Patriot Act Arrives: Ottawa To Give Security Agencies More "Detention And Surveillance" Powers
Paris ib 18:06 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
rafe - I very much doubt the independence of Soros. He is an insider. The whole BOE thing is a joke. He didn't break the bank. He did what was required of him and got the U.K. out of the European Monetary System by front running the collapse of the pound. He has very deep links with colour revolutions in Eastern Europe. There is no question that right now major geopolitical unrest would work in his financial interests. He may be 'no fool' but that's really not enough of an endorsement.
Soros and political unrest
Caribbean! Rafe... 18:03 GMT October 23, 2014
SOROS
A lot of central bankers sit up at night worried about how much he will make if they decide to change macro policies and even more worried about how much more money he will make if they sit on their hands, some are worthy of nothing more than playing with their marbles or hiding with their Russian mistresses in Monaco.
dc CB 17:58 GMT October 23, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
today's POMO was $1.496bln...juice to kill a few more shorts.
ONE MORE LEFT...OMG!
Mon: $0.85 - $1.05 billion
Caribbean! Rafe... 17:53 GMT October 23, 2014
SOROS
BOE wants payback and they are not gonna get it not even in 100 years.
Soros... I first read a few things about him when I just started and observed some similarities in terms of FX etc.
PAR 17:48 GMT October 23, 2014
SOROS
Reply
Soros is no fool . He is smarter than all central bankers together . More importantly he is playing with his own money and faces the consequences of his actions .
BOE remembers Soros very well .
GVI Forex john 17:45 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Its my understanding that Soros has always used money managers, especially when he financed the run on the Bank of England, I don't know who he used when he got slammed on his equally famous JPY trade.
Caribbean! Rafe... 17:39 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
IB//, Soros is no fool, with many yards on the line he cannot afford to employ others to misguide his decisions, he'd be throwing good money after bad money.
He may lose 2 yards but will cover with 5 in the bank.
That is a guarantee...
gl gt.
Mtl JP 17:24 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
the linked bloomi piece is from oct 6th.
I note with great interest the Deposit Overflow part
coz as we all know , on a bank's book
deposits are in the liability column and
loans are in the assets column
"Lenders accumulated so much cash that deposits exceeded loans by the most on record last month. That gap has widened by more than $300 billion in the past year."
and as we all also know that when liabilities exceed assets, certain interesting things can happen.
london red 17:17 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
that trendline, good spot JP. they are less sure of uber dovish fed but should provide some sort of bounce at the v least all the same
GVI Forex john 17:16 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
SCHEDULING ITEM:
U.K. and Eurozone clocks "fall back" one hour to winter time early on Sunday. The U.S. follows suit one week later.
Mtl JP 17:14 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
with reference to the chart in JP 16:58
American Banks Stockpile Treasuries as Deposits Top Loans - BBRG
..."Commercial lenders increased their holdings of Treasuries (BUSY) and debt from federal agencies in September by $54 billion to an unprecedented $1.99 trillion, data from the Federal Reserve show. Banks have now been net buyers for 12 straight months. "... /..
-
gents I have a feeling ... this is not a good thing to put American banks at such risk. coz it brings closer to front Yellen's 3rd mandate of "can and must safeguard the financial system" - Yellen October 9, 2013
I welcome your comments and trade idea(s)
dc CB 17:13 GMT October 23, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Auction next week, 2s,5s,7s.
the gold smack down has begin with the FMOC meeting as the second bIG reason. Like clockwork.
Mtl JP 16:58 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
10-yr noteprice update
Livingston nh 16:31 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
jp - absolutely, usually accompanied by money velocity -- this taper period has been like the time between the last rate cut and first hike -- but now we have period between the end of taper and first hike (the behind the curve period) // we are still missing the rise in yields
NY JM 16:16 GMT October 23, 2014
cable
Hard to pick out the flows other than they are offset by jpy selling.
london red 16:12 GMT October 23, 2014
cable
Reply
cable moving thru hourly trendline and towards 200 hour ma. bid feel to it since fail at 1.60. is someone picking up some tesco i wonder. or a bet on gdp. 0.7 is a bit down on the year but there has been some slippage so while 0.8 is possible, 0.7 is probably a fair consensus.
Mtl JP 15:50 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
nh some claim that stocks rising and interst rising at same time is "very bullish if it continues as it indicates a strong economy"
Livingston nh 15:38 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
Europe stox closed higher - even FTSE recovered - so now we see whether US stox can hold in the face of higher treasury yields // if USD/JPY fades if stox fade or if USD/JPY rallies if yields hold or rise -- of course, the three could confound us all
GVI Forex john 15:32 GMT October 23, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
15:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Late in European trade, markets are in a RISK-ON
posture
following a slew of flash PMI releases that broadly have been mixed to
stronger than expected. In Far East trade, equities ended weaker.
European bourses are up strongly into their close. U.S.
shares are diving equities higher.
U.S. 10-yr yields are up. 10-yr
yields in bunds and gilts are up as well..
Peripheral bond yields are lower, Volatile Greek
yields are down sharply again.
The
heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields.
Paris ib 15:31 GMT October 23, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
On hold for the moment. We got FOMC, the November 4 elections, the Christmas rally and the Soros put squeeze. Let's get through all that then we can take another look at it.
london red 15:30 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
10yr dec low today is a whisker under 50% of sept low to black wed high this month (126.99). its a potential support but if it can move below then we can move to top of prev range and breakout lvl at 126.37. we are at 127.02 so worth keeping an eye on this today and friday.
Paris ib 15:26 GMT October 23, 2014
Where's Ginko?
Ginko you still gunning for 2000 ?
Paris ib 15:22 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Taking the other side of the Soros put anyone? ..... well for now the whole market is. The put is now apparently worth 2 billion USD. What I'd like to know is that mark to market? I mean considering he's been holding it for over a year (I don't know how long but easily at least a year) and considering he has lost time value and the market has gone against him over that time then he must have ADDED hugely to that position. Otherwise by now he would have a piddling little put. Of course if he could get WWIII going or something similar he might be able to make money. Want world peace? Bankrupt Soros. :-)
Mtl JP 15:20 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
john and on my chart it has been us int rate driving usdyen in an inverse ralationship.
GVI Forex john 15:19 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
Art Cashin says HF leading stocks higher. That could explain the JPY carry trade. This s a 5% day already for pivot point resistance in USDJPY.
GVI Forex john 15:16 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
As I indicated earlier S&P clearly is driving USDJPY higher when you look at the overlay chart. Bullish day for stox.
GVI Forex john 15:10 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
red so its likely to start to leak at any time? If I recall correctly U.S. banks got the results beforehand so they could prepare for the release, and those leaked.
tokyo ginko 15:07 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Warmonger....put him down...
maybe he got caught shorting global equities...
london red 15:06 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Banks get these today or tomorrow i believe john. Worth looking at the bank stocks
Livingston nh 15:04 GMT October 23, 2014
TIPS
Reply
Leap of Faith auction today - 7 bio of 30 yr inflation protected securities - some folks think the rates on these are evidence of level of inflation expectations
When Mr. Rubin introduced these I called them VAMPIREs (Variable Appreciation Money Purchase Interest Reduction EQUITIES) and I still do --- but at least they don't exclude food and energy
GVI Forex john 15:02 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
The bulk of the major data for the week is now behind us. Sunday sees the release of the European bank stress tests. I have seen no time for these announcements yet.
GVI Forex Blog 14:54 GMT October 23, 2014
Reply
October 23, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, October 24. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB- GDP, US- New Homes Sales
GVI Forex Data Outlook for October 24, 2014
GVI Forex john 14:52 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
October 23, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, October 24.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB- GDP, US- New Homes Sales
- Far East: No Major Data
- Europe: GB- GDP
- North America: US- New Homes Sales, COT
shanghai bc 13:58 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
Well-managed Kuroda's gambit so far..100-105 range for some months and watch others like Eur and Gbp..If Eur starts weakening,then move the range to 105-110.."Do not blame me mate" ..Yen is likely to stay in 110-105 range for the remainder of the year unless Eur makes new lows before year end..
GVI Forex john 13:54 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
I am still distrustful of the U.S.Markit PMI numbers. The ISM figures are the established survey from way back. I only trust them when the two are in line with each other.
GVI Forex john 13:50 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
U.S. flash Markit Manufacturing PMI misses expectations and weakens.
london red 13:49 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
nh 95 also 23.6 of 101/110. With 21 day there as well they need to close abv it as you say. But while yields on the up im not a seller. Nxt move is to buy 64 stop under 40 or trendline whichever comes first.
Livingston nh 13:49 GMT October 23, 2014
STOX
Reply
Stox popped on a no news day again - a reversal to test the opening gap - big gap at around 200 dma needs testing but August gaps took over a month to close
Livingston nh 13:44 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
On the daily 107.95 is the declining 21 dma and the first time above since the last failed run at 110 - should be "easy" to break above a declining ma if we are truly in a bull move - but it must hold above long enough to turn the 21 dma upwards
GVI Forex john 13:26 GMT October 23, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
RISK-ON
10-yr 2.262%
DJ +136
SP +15
USDJPY being bought on carry trade flows into stocks ??
EURUSD negative as well
R3 tested 108.02 trades...
london red 13:20 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
10 yr moving further dwn now well under black wednesday levels. Yen 61.8 at 10821 abv there i see 10900/10
Mtl JP 13:07 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
Sell USDJPY
Entry: 107.88 Target: south Stop: above R3
5% risk hard to find beter odds
GVI Forex john 13:06 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
USDJPY and S&P trading closely in synch. I'm not certain but it looks to me like S&P has been leading.
GVI Forex john 13:01 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
R3= 108.01 extreme resistance level
statistically R3 is not broken 95% of the time
Interestingly the pivot = 107.11 (LOD =107.11)
GVI Forex john 12:42 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
"frictional lows" means that there is a level below which claims cannot fall. This is because in the normal course of events there is a fairly constant number of people moving between jobs.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:39 GMT October 23, 2014
USDJPY
Reply
USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
107.97 = 20 day mva
GVI Forex john 12:37 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims about at frictional lows...
Click on chart for over ten-year history
GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
NEWS ALERT
Initial Claims (000)
283K vs. 285K exp. vs. 264K (r 266 K) prev.
Continued Claims (mln)
2.351 vs. 2.380 exp. vs. 2.389 (r none ) prev.
Press Release
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Mtl JP 12:10 GMT October 23, 2014
Chipping Away
ib, bc.. it takes a KID
to invent new money
PAR 11:50 GMT October 23, 2014
AMAZON
Reply
What would happen if AMZN as most other US companies bought back some of its own shares . The loss per share actually would become bigger .
What would happen if aapl as amzn did , almost sold no phones of it latest model ?
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/technology/amazon-spends-and-grows-but-still-wants-for-money.html?ref=business
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:34 GMT October 23, 2014
eurusd
EURUSD one hour
Paused above 1.2609 and also below 1.2680 - chart is pretty clear
sd sf 11:25 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
I was just looking at some strategy updates and saw this:
sold 100 eur @1.2550 - bought 100 eur @ 1.2820
sold 200 eur @1.2650
after reading this I am closing down my eurusd strategies till next week when all the tests etc are done... and see where it ends up... as that sort of trading record doesn't inspire me to stay short... its been a fun few days with it - but probably time to pull up stumps.
.. I agree on the $yen its broken up and should go to 80-90 on the day.
GVI Forex john 11:06 GMT October 23, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Pivot today in EURUSD 1.2673 so a cluster of key levels here. You can see on the 5 min charts how that level was run (I show 1.2677 high).
GVI Forex john 10:58 GMT October 23, 2014
EUR Heat Map
Reply
EUR-based Heat Map: Forex from a EUR point of view. Positive bias for the EUR. EURUSD is better.
london red 10:47 GMT October 23, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
yen. good res at 10764 (50% fib) bringing focus back down to support at 39/43. below there trendline at 107.20 with neck of inverse shs at 14. focus on upside still viable while that trendline holds. abv 10764 former fib at 10790.
london red 10:43 GMT October 23, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
some euro lvls. trendline today at 2718 as i 10 day ma. below there is pivotal res at 12686. higher up we have 30/47, possible bull trap high/target if trendline was to break intraday. yest high 39. below 12650 brings focus back on 22/17.
SaaR KaL 10:23 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
red
I am tgt 1.68 in Jan/2015 for cable BTW
GVI Forex john 10:22 GMT October 23, 2014
GLOBAL-VIEW FORUMS ARE EASY TO USE!
Click on the title of any post and you can see the complete discussion of a topic.
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SaaR KaL 10:21 GMT October 23, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply
Silver wants 25 next year
it's time to buy...tgt for now 18.20 area
Gold (From 1220) and silver is all year buy
and USDcad is all year sell
do an all year pos
london red 10:20 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
cable outperforming really despite poor data but needs to clear asia high 50/60 to make headway otherwise the risk of sub 1.6 remains. bit of an shs building targeting 1.59
Paris ib 09:27 GMT October 23, 2014
Chipping Away
bc - I absolutely agree. One of the problems in this shift is, I think, that everyone has worked out that being a sole reserve currency is not such a great idea so no-one wants the burden. Yet we are aways away from getting some sort of alternative basket reserve system worked out. Still the bilateral agreements which are taking place are early steps towards a multi lateral system which is likely to work out a great deal better for the world economy in general and even for the U.S. (provided that they drop their currently paranoid approach and embrace change). I've heard the SDRs touted as an alternative but I don't see that flying. It looks to me like this will take place slowly, a bit here and a bit there.... but an ad hoc approach is probably better in any case. I'm not a big fan of some big general plan.
shanghai bc 09:18 GMT October 23, 2014
Chipping Away
IB --Looking back，Prof.Keynes' idea of a truely international and non-national reserve currency was a far better idea..Neither Pound nor Dollar, but an independent world cuurency..China is not interested in making RMB a world reserve currency at all..But only interested in Keynes' truely independent international reserve currency..Nither Euro nor Dollar nor RMB..But an independent new world reserve currency..It may be better for USA in the long run too..Britain has done very well after Pound stopped being the only world reserve currency ..
GVI Forex john 09:07 GMT October 23, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Reply
09:15 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Early
in European trade, markets are in MIXED RISK posture
following a slew of flash PMI releases that broadly have been mixed to
stronger than expected. In Far East trade, equities ended weaker.
European bourses are modestly higher at this hour U.S.
share futures are up.
U.S. 10-yr yields are up. 10-yr
yields in bunds and gilts are up as well..
Peripheral bond yields are lower, Volatile Greek
yields are down sharply again.
The
heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields.
Paris ib 08:53 GMT October 23, 2014
Chipping Away
bc - I agree but the U.S. seems completely paranoid about any attempt to develop outside the current international financial framework. Indeed I think there has been a concerted effort by some elements of the media to suggest that should the USD stop being the world reserve currency then disaster will ensue. Personally I think a move away from the USD as a reserve currency is already underway and is likely to continue and I really don't see an economic disaster coming as a result. That said the level of paranoia on the issue is spectacular. :-)
shanghai bc 08:50 GMT October 23, 2014
Chipping Away
On Infrastructure bank,China is the largest trading partner of some 120 countries..Having one's own Banks to provide credit and finance for trade in each continent is a necessity..China obviously cannot ask IMF or World Bank to provide loans and credit to those countries to carry out China trade..
london red 08:49 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
yen. 64 res attempted twice hopefully a bit of consolidation into us session around 40 for another test and then break to 90.
london red 08:46 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
one of the reasons sales are being squeezed lower. price war will only increase as tesco needs to reduce prices further to stop the rot and with a quarter market share, its pricing will have an effect on uk sales.
London London 08:46 GMT October 23, 2014
New signal - Try our free trial
Reply
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Visit us for 8 days free trial
New Signal: Sell EUR/USD @ 1.26522. at 2014.10.23
S.L - 55
T.P + 55
Posted with permission of global-view.com
Daniel Jonson
Paris ib 08:41 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
"Tesco's share price dive-bombed today after it was revealed profits slumped 91.9 per cent, its chairman quit and a £250million accounting scandal was even worse than predicted."
"Police are also expected to launch a criminal investigation over an accounting scandal that saw its first half profits artificially inflated by £263million, more than the £250million estimated last month."
Don't know what is going on over there, but it sounds ugly.
london red 08:41 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
10yr dec now below yr low and black wed low. yen res 64 abv 90
GVI Forex john 08:40 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
U.K. Retail Sales data fall and miss expectations. GBPUSD lower.
GVI Forex john 08:35 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
weaker than expected.
GVI Forex john 08:34 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
GB Retail Sales September 2014
-- NEWS ALERT --
mm: -0.30% vs.- 0.20% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.
yy: +2.70% vs. +2.90% exp. vs. +3.90% (-3.70%) prev.
x-fuel
mm: -0.30% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.20% (+0.30%) prev.
yy: +3.10% vs. +3.50% exp. vs. +4.50% (+4.40%) prev.
RELEASE: UK Retail Sales
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Paris ib 08:21 GMT October 23, 2014
Chipping Away
Reply
"China will officially launch a new $50bn Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank on Friday as it steps up its challenge to global financial institutions like the World Bank that it feels are dominated by America and its allies."
Australia has yet to decide if it will sign on or not. Should it not it seems relations between the two countries are likely to be somewhat damaged, to the detriment of Australia.
China and Global Financial Infrastructure
GVI Forex john 08:17 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
EARLIER: Japan flash PMI. improved data.
Paris ib 08:13 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
"Other factors also augur for continued recovery. The fiscal drags on the economy that persisted during the crisis are dissipating. Drastic ECB easing programs including negative deposit rates and a low-interest loan program for Eurozone banks should spark more bank lending and thus more economic activity. While many banks have been reducing lending to strengthen their balance sheets ahead of the central bank’s impending Asset Quality Review process, that process will be over by autumn."
From Credit Suisse
GVI Forex john 08:10 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
EZ, GE flash Mfg PMIs. Mostly better, except France.
EZ, German and French flash Services PMIs. Flat to weaker
Paris ib 08:08 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Paris ib 18:07 GMT October 16, 2014
EUR/USD: Reply
"Although it sounds trivial, a calendar issue likely exaggerated the drop in industrial production. When bank holidays fall on a Thursday in Europe, workers tend to take Friday off as well to have a long weekend. But official statistics still count the Friday as a full working day, which puts a damper on output. Over the past 30 years, Eurozone industrial production has contracted an average of nearly 2 percent in May in years when May Day occurred on a Thursday."
I posted this on the 16th and it's still worth a read.
Right "the market" consensus seems to be: Europe is going down the toilet, it would be a tragedy for everyone if the USD stops being the world reserve currency, the U.S. economic recovery continues..... I would question pretty much all of that.
Don't believe the bad news
PAR 08:03 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Exception made for France , Europe is doing really well . After some weather related summer slowdown ,Europe is growing rather fast despite all the problems created by the ECB.
GVI Forex john 08:00 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
EZ Flash PMI Estimates October 2014
ALERT
EZ
mfg:50.7 vs. 49.9 exp. vs. 50.3 prev.
svc: 52.4 vs. 52.0 exp. vs. 52.4 prev.
France
mfg: 47.3 vs. 48.5 exp. vs. 48.8
svc: 48.1 vs. 48.3 exp. vs. 48.4
German
mfg: 51.8 vs. 49.9 exp. vs. 50.3
svc: 54.8 vs. 55.0 exp. vs. 55.7
Markit PMI Press Release
TTN: Live News Special Offer
sd sf 08:00 GMT October 23, 2014
eurusd
you can see today was a bit different - in terms of how they traded it.
we got the jam down to 10-20 and now we are seeing where the top is
given the range has been 50 pips then 15-65 probably.
(this would have been much easier if Asia had done it first though)
PAR 07:58 GMT October 23, 2014
FRANCE
Reply
France Markit Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (48.5) in October: Actual (47.3)
France Markit Services PMI registered at 48.1, below expectations (48.2) in October
PAR 07:56 GMT October 23, 2014
Germany
Reply
FXStreet (Łódź) - Preliminary German PMI Manufacturing increased to 51.8 in October, from 49.9 in September, according to data released today by Markit. The result is against market consensus of a drop to 49.5.
PMI Services fell to 54.8, following a 55.7 and below expectations of a slide to 55.0.
GVI Forex john 07:55 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
EARLIER: HSBC Headline flash PMI improves modestly.
london red 07:45 GMT October 23, 2014
eurusd
got short again at 50 stop abv flash high. if abv its doing 70-90. gap to 22 and reassess.
london red 07:06 GMT October 23, 2014
eurusd
if we dont do much of a retracement we could do some big downside today. historically candles/bars with minimal retracement tend to extend strongly to the opposite side. trigger below 18 for more, but beware consolidation thursday. often calm before the friday storm.
london red 06:57 GMT October 23, 2014
eurusd
just trying an outside hour here but needs to move thru 50 to have any chance of a bit of retracement. except everyone is looking to sell and thats the problem which is hampering any retracement. data starts shortly. more from germany later.
Haifa ac 06:24 GMT October 23, 2014
Day's Trades
SaaR KaL 01:55 GMT 10/23/2014 - My Profile
US Oil
is a great buy here folks..
True. and will be even a greater buy around 71.
sd sf 05:47 GMT October 23, 2014
eurusd
over the last 2 days in this period of roughly the next 3 hours from now
we traded 1.2790/1.2840 we started around 1.2810 and bought for about 2.5 hours
yesterday we traded 1.2685/1.2740 and we bought for about 2.5 hours and we started around 1.2723
so about 50 points basically ... interesting if we can do 50 3 days in a row.
sd sf 02:30 GMT October 23, 2014
eurusd
$yen just seeing range t/p offers coming in now @31 32 .. not expecting much more in Asia on this one.
EUR drifting lower that is about all you can say about it.
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:57 GMT October 23, 2014
AceTrader Oct 23: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Oct 2014 01:26GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Dlr pares Wed's gain in early Tokyo trading as intra-day retreat in the Nikkei (currently down 102 points at 15093 after yesterday's 2.5% rally) has led to intra-day renewed buying in yen.
Although the pair climbed in NY morning after U.S. CPI ticked higher and touched session high of 107.38, offers at Monday's 107.39 top checked intra-day gain and price edged lower near NY close.
Looks like range trading would continue in Asia, unless the Nikkei falls sharply, re-test of 107.28/39 is on the card.
Bids are noted at 107.00 and more below would stops below 106.80-75.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 107.45/50 with stops above there, however, more selling interest is reported at 107.80/00 area.
Thursday will see the release of New Zealand CPI, Japan manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, France business climate, manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Italy trade balance, UK retail sales, CBI trends, U.S. home price index, jobless claims, manufacturing PMI, leading index and consumer confidence.
SaaR KaL 01:55 GMT October 23, 2014
Day's Trades
US Oil
is a great buy here folks
I do not trade oil...Just that a friend asked me to do so..
a pick over the next day IMO
tgt > 100
GVI Forex 01:46 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
MNI: CHINA HSBC OCT FLASH PMI 50.4 VS SEPT FINAL 50.2
shanghai bc 00:55 GMT October 23, 2014
eurusd
Please contact Jay the boss via email..He will relay your mail to me..
All the best to you..
Livingston nh 00:54 GMT October 23, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
The EUR/USD closed below the 21 dma for the first time in a week - the next two days should see more weakness into the AQR weekend -- maybe the big drop in Greek yield has been last minute shoppers ?
GVI Forex 00:54 GMT October 23, 2014
eurusd
EURUSD upside limited ahead of PMI reports.
1.2650 clearly sets bias (and currently resistance) while within 1.26-1.27. 1.2609-25 targeted while below it, then 1.2580
On top, 1.2680 blocks return to 1.27.
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