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Forex Forum Archive for 10/27/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex Blog 23:44 GMT October 27, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar broadly softer, retreats from near three-week high vs yen

* All eyes on Fed policy meeting outcome due mid-week

* Fed seen sticking to dovish script as it winds up QE stimulus

FOREX-Dollar struggles as Fed meeting looms, market subdued

Cambridge Joe 22:13 GMT October 27, 2014
A forum to be proud of !

Thanks John.

I'll be around and about from time to time ! :-)

GVI Forex john 22:07 GMT October 27, 2014
A forum to be proud of !

Joe- Nice to see you back! Hope you can sit down and stay a while ;-)

Cambridgd Joe 22:05 GMT October 27, 2014
A forum to be proud of !
Reply   
After some time away due to a number of issues, I have recently looked in on the forum from time to time.

The general tenor is one of good quality posts, good proffesional trading ideas and positive cooperation among respondants.

The politico fotum is also revitalised, lively and interesting.

Thanks to all who make GVI what it is and keep up the gennerosity of spirit !

GVI Forex john 21:40 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



October 27, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, October 28. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Retail Sales, US- Durable Goods, Case Shiller, Conference Board Consumer Confidence

  • Far East: JP- Retail Sales
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- Durable Goods, Case Shiller, Richmond Fed, Conf Bd Consumer Confidence, 2-yr Auction, API Energy


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 21:14 GMT October 27, 2014
USDJPY

Read this post as an example of finding levels to trade against that can produce low risk trades using tight stops.

USDJPY
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:44 GMT 10/27/2014 - My Profile

GVI Forex john 20:47 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS


Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
TUESDAY
00:50 JP Retail Sales Retail demand
12:30 US Dur Goods Mfg demand
14:00 US CB Consumer Conf Key Sentiment Survey
WEDNESDAY
18:00 FRB Fed Rates No Rate Change
21:00 NZ RBNZ Cash Rates
23:50 JP Ind Out  Production
THURSDAY
08:55  DE unemployment
12:30  US Initial Claims
12:30  US GDP broadest growth measure
FRIDAY
00:30 JP Core CPI BOJ target
04:30 JP Bank of Japan No Rate change seen
07:00 DE Ret Sales Consumer demand
10:00 EZ FL HICP  ECB target
12:30  US PCE deflator Fed Target
13:55  US U Mich final Key Sentiment Survey

GVI Forex john 20:45 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System



USD & EUR Pivots. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





GVI Forex john 19:40 GMT October 27, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:02 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD weekly pivot 1.2707. (Last 1.2708)

GVI Forex Blog 18:56 GMT October 27, 2014
U.S. Data Flat. German IFO Data Slump. European Bank Stress Tests Hold No Surprises
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Retail Sales, US- Durable Goods, Case Shiller, Conf Board Consumer Confidence

Tuesday sees a slew of U.S. data including Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence data. Both the U.S. flash Markit Services PMI and Pending Homes Sales data fell short of expectations ans were basically flat.. The key German IFO Survey was weaker than expected. IFO noted that recent better PMI data did not show up in their data.

U.S. Data Flat. German IFO Data Slump. European Bank Stress Tests Hold No Surprises

Livingston nh 17:59 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

sorry - hit the wrong reply

Livingston nh 17:52 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

In the upside down world of the Fed (I posted a chart over on poli forum that shows the 20 yr history of the Fed's "preferred inflation" level) - note the post 2005 PCE, XXX every thing, above 2% led to the PANIC -- and that's where Yellen wants to go // I'm sure it will be different this time

QE is over but deflation is unlikely -- look at the chart and note the 2 yr interest rate

NY JM 17:44 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Good day to use pivot point levels

Livingston nh 17:34 GMT October 27, 2014
USDJPY

SPX having a hard time clearing 21 dma ~1965 - yen needs to close above 108.50 to make it all good again

Livingston nh 17:26 GMT October 27, 2014
Ebola in the USA

AND if you don't have Ebola but get quarantined is that even a medical issue?? hahah - don't hurt the insurers or the pharma companies

Mtl JP 17:20 GMT October 27, 2014
Ebola in the USA

If you get Ebola, will you be covered by insurance?
... hospital bill for an Ebola patient will likely run between $18,000 to $24,000 a day ...

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:18 GMT October 27, 2014
USDJPY

Stocks recovering, USDJPY bouncing from above 107.55-57

dc CB 17:11 GMT October 27, 2014
About (Il)liquidity



Paleeeze don't turn off the machine

Mtl JP 16:53 GMT October 27, 2014
About (Il)liquidity
Reply   
"There’s a thin line to keeping the customer happy while also giving a level that you can at least get out of without taking a big loss right away” - Bloomberg
-
thin line about custy hapiness, thick gap between bid and ask
perro come perro

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:44 GMT October 27, 2014
USDJPY
Reply   


After the opening Far East spike, USDJPY has traded offered, low has been 107.60, current bid 107.63.

Note the one hour chart
- 100 hour mva currently 107.57
- S2 = 107.55, daily pivot 107.89
- Support is at 107.40-43
- As chart shows 107.10 is better support and the base for the move to 108.35 where there is around a double top
-

GVI Forex john 16:04 GMT October 27, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS:Mild Risk-Off
Reply   

15:15 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
European markets are in a mild RISK-OFF posture following the Sunday  Asset  Quality Review (AQR bank stress test results. Demand for equities appears to be light at best.  n Far East trade, equities ended mixed.  European bourses are ending lower U.S. shares are slightly negative at this hour.

U.S. 10-yr yields are lower. 10-yr yields in bunds are down, while gilts are steady. Peripheral bond yields are mostly higher.




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


GVI Forex john 15:33 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Calendar Item: Due to the change, Europe closes one hour later relative to North America until next weekend when North American clocks move back one hour.

GVI Forex Blog 15:31 GMT October 27, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The ECB stress tests unfolded mostly as expected over the weekend and this morning, however the sixth consecutive sequential decline in the October German IFO survey knocked European indices lower. The weak US October Markit services PMI reading did not help sentiment, although US indices bottomed out around 10:00ET and moved higher

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Just Another Manic Monday

Dillon AL 14:55 GMT October 27, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

....so far off....

Dillon AL 14:55 GMT October 27, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

But the EurChf is not bouncing. This pair is so far the vast majority trader's radar but what it is saying is that the current bounce in Euro is fresh longs not short covering. beware

GVI Forex john 14:46 GMT October 27, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

RISK-OFF ?
10-yr 2.257 -1.6

Risk-off is usually bullish for EUR and JPY

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:39 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

High 1.2723 vs. R2 at 1.2727

GVI Forex john 14:37 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



October 27, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, October 28. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Retail Sales, US- Durable Goods, Case Shiller, Conference Board Consumer Confidence

  • Far East: JP- Retail Sales
  • Europe: No Major Data
  • North America: US- Durable Goods, Case Shiller, Richmond Fed, Conference Board Consumer Confidence, 2-yr Auction, API Energy


london red 14:27 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

cable. should top out 16180-162 then its a sell.

london red 14:25 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

JP, im waiting for 47/48 but aware could miss out.
watch yen 64/65. done once. thats all it should take otherwise 39. below there trendline 107.19

dc CB 14:19 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

NAR chief economist, says moderating price growth and sustained inventory levels are keeping conditions favorable for buyers.
...“Additionally, the current spectacularly low mortgage rates should help more buyers reach the market.”

Despite improved housing conditions and low interest rates, tight credit conditions continue to be a barrier for some buyers. Of the reasons for not closing a sale, about 15 percent of Realtors® in September reported having clients who could not obtain financing as the reason for not closing1.

Mtl JP 14:17 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.270x Target: south Stop: above 1.2715

somewhat riski trade coz puppy could leap to 1.2740/50ish first

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:12 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

R2 = 1.2727, resistance levels 1,2731 and 1.2730-42, R3 - 1.2759

london red 14:10 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

also tokyo gap fill at 68

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:09 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD low at 1.2666 = dead on at today's daily pivot point

GVI Forex john 14:07 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Pending Homes Sales flat and thus weaker than forecast. They suggest flat upcoming Existing Homes Sales data. Investors are said to be out of the market.

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Pending Homes Sales September 2014




NEWS ALERT
+0.30% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. -1.00% prev.
RELEASE: Pending Home Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 13:51 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Focus is now on ISM PMI to see if it confirms the flash Markit report.

GVI Forex john 13:48 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. flash Markit Service PMI. down more than expected from September, but still at a high level.

london 13:47 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

you miss the point. its not about labour. ukip will outperform all polls. in the same manner as scotland no vote outperformed polls.
its not cool to back ukip, so people dont admit to it when polled. but in the privacy of a poll booth its a different matter.

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Markit flash Services PMI October 2014





ALERT
57.3 vs. 58.0 exp. vs. 58.9 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 13:41 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

crude price and retail price for refined gasoline not necessarily keeping proportional cadence.

deflation: the horror and nightmare of every keynesian CB adept

Dillon AL 13:40 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Cameron may not win the election...possibly could be another hung parliament but Ed is not an alternative and Clegg will be wiped out. There will be no change to the current SNP in Scotland and ultimately Ireland and Wales count for jack.

london red 13:36 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

yup deflationary. possibly nxt us cpi will be the eye opener. if not then def the following one. take a look at crude vs cpi chart.

as for uk tax demand. fwiw its not certain cameron will win nxt yrs election if he stands ground, but its almost certain he will losie it or not be in the position to stand (leadership challenge). so dont expect the payment to be made anytime soon since its his neck on the line.

GVI Forex john 13:22 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

from GVI Forex

WTI pivot points

S1 $80.46
S2 $79.89
S3 $78.85

GVI Forex john 13:20 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

fwiw wti through $80.00. Good for the consumer and producers other than crude. Last $79.60 -1.41.

In terms of inflation indices (except most ore measures) this is deflationary.

jkt abel 13:05 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

short euro too 1.2680, stop 1.2738

Kaunas DP 12:54 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.2686 Target: 1.2576 Stop: 1.2730

shorted

GVI Forex 12:44 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD pivot 1.2666

20 day mva = 1.2683

GVI Forex john 12:13 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



NEW CHART: Latest ZEW and IFO surveys "expectations" minus "current situation". This provides the implied forecasts. Both Surveys are SUB-ZERO AND THUS pessimistic for next six months. Has ZEW bottomed?

GVI Forex john 11:50 GMT October 27, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


USD & EUR Pivots. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System


GVI Forex Blog 11:30 GMT October 27, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
EUR currency registered only moderate gains following Sunday's bank stress test results which seemed to be 'baked in' given the release of the draft document on Friday.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: ECB stress tests offers brief respite in Europe; German IFO survey has specter of recession looming

SaaR KaL 11:07 GMT October 27, 2014
Crude Oil

LOL

PAR 11:04 GMT October 27, 2014
Crude Oil
Reply   
Crude may drop to below $ 50 on lack of demand .

GVI Forex john 11:00 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

October 2014 UK CBI Distributive Trades



-- NEWS ALERT --
+31 vs. +25 exp. vs. +31 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

SaaR KaL 10:51 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Red
EURGBP
Longs and tgt this week
0.7920 0.7843
0.7937 0.7825
0.7954 0.7807
0.7972 0.7789

Hong Kong AceTrader 09:47 GMT October 27, 2014
AceTrader Oct 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views


27 Oct 2014 08:21GMT

USD/JPY - ....... Despite initial gap-up open to a 2-week high of 108.37 in Aust. (NZ was closed for Labour Day holiday today), dlr's broad-based weakness in Asian morning pressured the pair to 107.86 b4 a recovery was seen ahead of European open.

As 108.09 has capped dlr's intra-day recovery, consolidation with nr term downside bias is in store. Dlr is likely to track intra-day swings in the Nikkei futures during European morning ahead of release of U.S. eco. data later in the day, these include U.S. services PMI, pending home sales and Dalla Fed mfg business index.

Offers are noted at 108.10/20 n more above with stops reported above 108.40, however, more offers are tipped at 108.55/65.
Initial bids are noted at 107.85-80 with stops below 107.75.

According to a poll published from Yomiuri on Sunday, public approval of PM Shinzo Abe's gov't slumped after the resignation of two high-profile cabinet ministers last week, adding more pressure on Abe as he struggles to turn around the Japanese economy.
Japan's biggest daily the Yomiuri surveyed 1,059 people by telephone on Fri n Sat n found support for Abe's gov't had fallen to 53% fm 62% in less than a month. Of those surveyed, 37% said they disapproved of the gov't, up fm a 30% disapproval rating in a previous poll on Oct 10.
In the biggest setback since he took office in December 2012, Abe lost two cabinet ministers on one day last week, complicating tough decisions on key policies, including whether to proceed with an unpopular sales tax hike n restarts of nuclear reactors shut down after the 2011 Fukushima disaster.

GVI Forex Blog 09:38 GMT October 27, 2014
German IFO Survey Weaker Than Forecast. No Major Surprise in European Bank Stress Tests
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- flash Service PMI, Pending Homes Sales

Today sees U.S. flash Markit Services PMI and Pending Homes Sales data. The key German IFO Survey was weaker than expected. IFO noted that recent better PMI data did not show up in their data.

German IFO Survey Weaker Than Forecast. No Major Surprise in European Bank Stress Tests

London London 09:37 GMT October 27, 2014 Reply   
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

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New Signal: Buy GBP/USD @ 1.61107. at 2014.10.27
S.L - 55
T.P + 55

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GVI Forex john 09:23 GMT October 27, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Reply   

09:15 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
European markets are in a mild MIXED RISK posture following the Asset Quality Review (AQR) bank stress test results released on Sunday. General results of the tests had been leaked on Friday. In Far East trade, equities ended mixed.  European bourses are mixed. U.S. share futures are about steady.

U.S. 10-yr yields are higher. 10-yr yields in bunds are down, while gilts are up slightly. Peripheral bond yields closed mostly lower.




london red 09:23 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

eurgbp. 1h chart. descending tirangle with base close to a big prev low of 74. area of 70-74 vital support as below there likely to break into lower range. last hourly high of 92 should cap if triangle to stay true. and currently making way down to triangle base of this high. we need to see the base tested even if rebounds again as a failure to test suggests triangle may fail and allow upside break.

GVI Forex john 09:10 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

IFo: Recent PMI jumps mot evident in their data.

GVI Forex john 09:05 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

German Ifo data: German data softer than expected across the board. This is a broadly followed report. EURUSD soft.


GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

IFo Misses across the board.

GVI Forex john 09:00 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Reply   
German IFO Survey October 2014



NEWS ALERT

Climate: 103.2 vs. 104.3 exp. vs. 104.7 prev.
Conditions: 108.4 vs. 109.9 exp. vs. 110.5 prev.
Expectations: 98.3 vs. 98.7 exp. vs. 99.3 prev.


IFO Climate Survey



TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 07:24 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

JM on the money as usual, watch the reaction on the data. for now past res becomes support at 86/82. today you have fib res at 2748 and trendline at 2751 (day) 2757 (1h/4h). early we stop 2 points shy of the 20 day at 2720, second time likely to break. motto is euro rarely gives you twice the chance to sell the high - if it does its going up not down!

SaaR KaL 07:03 GMT October 27, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Will short some AUDUSD today / Week
0.8820 to 0.8879
TGT 0.8710

SaaR KaL 05:18 GMT October 27, 2014
Fed Decision next Wednesday

Sold USDJPY about 4 hrs ago
expecting 106.6 this week

Mtl JP 04:24 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

China’s forex regulator reassured markets that there was no need to worry about a $100 billion fall in reserves in the third quarter — the largest such drop since 1996.

China’s foreign reserve pile fell to $3.89 trillion from $3.99 trillion at the end of June

GVI Forex Blog 03:47 GMT October 27, 2014 Reply   
The doubt over the US market is not going away and exactly that may fuel the rally towards

Morning Briefing : 27-Oct-2014 -0347 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:07 GMT October 27, 2014
AceTrader Oct 27: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

27 Oct 2014 02:00GMT

USD/JPY - 107.98... Although dlr 'gapped-up' higher to a fresh 2-week peak at 108.37 in Australia after Reuters reported Sun a Yomiuri poll showed public approval for Japan PM Abe's government has slumped, lack of follow-through buying n continued concerns over the Ebola case in NY prompted profit-taking. Dlr later retreated to 107.93 in Tokyo morning.

Today, dlr's retreat from 108.37 suggests initial consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen ahead European open but as long as 107.79 (Fri's low in NY) holds, outlook remains mildly bullish for marginal gain after consolidation n therefore, buying dlr on dips is the favoured strategy. Bids are noted at 108.00-107.90 with mixture of bids n stops at 107.80/75 n further out at 107.50/45. On the upside, offers are placed at 108.30-40 n then 108.50 with stops emerging just above 108.80.

The coming week will see the release of German Ifo business climate, U.K. CBI distributive trades, U.S. Markit services PMI flash, pending sales change and revised building permits change on Monday.

Japan's retail sales, German import index, U.S. durable goods, Redbook, CaseShiller house price, consumer confidence on Tuesday.

Japan's industrial output, New Zealand ANZ bussiness outlook, U.K. mortgage approval and mortgage lending, Canada's producer prices, FOMC rate decision and Fed's monetary policy statement on Wednesday.

RBNZ rate decision, Australia's HIA new home sales, import and export prices, U.K. Nationwide house prices, Swiss KOF indicator, German unemployment rate, EU business climate, economic sentiment and final consumer confidence, U.S. jobless claims, GDP in Q3 and core PCE, German CPI and HICP on Thursday.

Japan's all household spending, CPI and unemployment, GfK consumer confidence, Australia's PPI, Bank of Japan monetary statement, construction orders, housing starts, BOJ press conference, BOJ outlook report, EU inflation and unemployment, U.S. PCE price index, personal real consumption and income, core PCE price index, Canada's GDP and U.S. University of Michigan sentiment on Friday.

GVI Forex 02:04 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

EURUSD 1.2707 is weekly pivot

GVI Forex 00:20 GMT October 27, 2014
Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

Forex Outlook for the Week Ahead

Event filled week - ECB stress tests and the FOMC

NY JM 00:18 GMT October 27, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

The stress tests were a non-event and next up is the German IFO. EURUSD upside should be restrained ahead of it but then test comes after depending on how it reacts to what is expected to be a weaker report... see if it shrugs off the IFO. That's your clue

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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