dc CB 23:59 GMT October 28, 2014
Goaaaaaaaaaaal!
One day at a time...esp with the margin of $5K++
hope you are enjoying the benfits of the free state of Colorado.
cheers
Dillon AL 23:56 GMT October 28, 2014
Goaaaaaaaaaaal!
Dillon AL 14:49 GMT June 24, 2014
Dillon AL 20:18 GMT June 10, 2014
Dillon AL 02:25 GMT May 30, 2014
Dillon AL 21:35 GMT May 12, 2014
upside tgt remains 2135
dc CB 23:47 GMT October 28, 2014
Goaaaaaaaaaaal!
end of day new target 2020
fly in the oinment. that Demark sell.
Not no much a Sell, more as a Don't Buy the High.....pause
number nine...number nine...number nine....
emini
Mtl JP 23:03 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
relating to FED and zirp and QE zh has this post :
Fireworks Fly As Peter Schiff Warns "An Economy That Lives By QE, Dies By QE"
-
Schiff makes one , what I think, is relevant and important observation, namely that "the Fed's total lack of willingness to allow stocks to fall (see Bullard 2 weeks ago) or a 'cleansing' recession leaves the nation's economy in far worse shape than it was before the Fed's intervention."
In my mind the If is not in Qtn, only the When of the death of a QE fuelled economy. Recall Yellen's 3rd mandate. That is about who she would prioritize saving.
GVI Forex john 20:48 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Weekly
Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
WEDNESDAY
18:00 FRB
Fed
Rates No Rate Change
21:00 NZ RBNZ Cash Rates
23:50 JP Ind Out Production
THURSDAY
08:55 DE unemployment
12:30 US
Initial Claims
12:30 US GDP broadest growth measure
FRIDAY
00:30 JP
Core
CPI BOJ target
04:30 JP
Bank of Japan No Rate change seen
07:00 DE
Ret
Sales Consumer demand
10:00 EZ
FL
HICP ECB target
12:30 US
PCE deflator Fed Target
13:55 US
U Mich final Key Sentiment Survey
Mtl JP 20:45 GMT October 28, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
US 10-yr price bounced from one end to other in range to end lower than at open (i.e. slightly higher int rate)
That is what I consider "correct" reaction to RISK-ON: lenders of money need to be paid first on expectation of rosy economic expectation.
Current problem that I have with lenders getting paid is that they are not demanding to be paid enough.
and so for now watching my range lines for a breakout alert
GVI Forex john 20:40 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Weekly US API DatA
NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: +3.200 vs. +3.000 exp vs. +7.100 prev.
Gasoline: -1.000 vs. -1.000 exp vs. +1.30 prev.
Distillates: -3.000 vs. -1.500 exp vs. +1.050 prev.
Cap/Util: 88.3% vs. 88.7% exp vs. 88.10% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Mtl JP 20:36 GMT October 28, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
SnP at 1980 and usdcad at 1.1165
against what is RISK-ON is USD positive ?
PAR 20:05 GMT October 28, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Dow above 17000. New record high by end of week . No sellers to be found, hence explosion to the upside . Santa Yellen to give more fuel to the rocket tomorrow.
GVI Forex john 19:46 GMT October 28, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Equities ending strong on pre-FOMC set-up.
Higher equities is RISK-ON and RISK-ON is USD positive.
sd sf 18:51 GMT October 28, 2014
Morning
1.2820 i/o 1.38 .. apols.
gc sf 18:51 GMT October 28, 2014
Morning
Reply
short term EUR + GBP go down 20 points
but after those small moves get washed out - still like EUR upside - stops won't kick in till >1.3820 from those signals/funds that sold @1.2650
so FOMC will give the go light for some sort of move like that if everything works out.
YEN - no idea as haven't been watching the mkt for a few days nor what Tokyo has been saying which is ultimately extremely important.
I did see also Russian Companies were not selling their foreign currencies for roubles anymore - and the Russian CB was the only buyer at the moment -- not sure how all that works - but I imagine doesn't help USD either.
dc CB 18:47 GMT October 28, 2014
FOOD for thought
Reply
How Da Game is Played.
____________________________
I read someone describe the October rally in corn and soybeans as a "needed rally." Naw. . .it wasn't needed. It was ill-timed. Most farmers have revenue crop insurance and the rally increased the harvest price set by the average price of December corn and November soybeans during the month of October used to calculate insurance indemnities.
The rally reduced the indemnitees that they will receive. Many will store corn and soybeans that now no longer are price protected by insurance. To date (10/23) the average corn price is up 22 cents and the average soybean price is up 29 cents from where prices started October 1st and climbing.
Farmers needed a rally "after" crop insurance indemnities were set. Instead now they will be at risk of declining cash prices.
dc CB 18:21 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Mtl JP 17:16 GMT
...IBM, +0.62% said Tuesday its board of directors authorized a new $5 billion stock buyback program.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Americans have experienced stagnant or falling wages despite increasing their productivity by 8 percent. One example shows the connection: Walmart spent $7.6 billion on buybacks last year, but for the same amount of money could raise all of its employees’ pay to at least $25,000 a year (as they have demanded) without hurting its business or raising its prices.
as Hillary sez: corporations don't ceate jobs
london red 18:10 GMT October 28, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
agree dovish is expected. they are going to need to add some caution to growth story or inflation for the market to hold on to something new for dollar weakness. when market was overly hawkish, fed regularly reined in euphoria by stating they have a long term view for inflation, lets see if they are true to their word. because they should not flinch at this meeting if they are actually following that line. if they buckle and start talking about balanced risks again then dollar will weaken but stocks will fall as well (by close) as market will start worrying that fed is worrying.
GVI Forex john 17:55 GMT October 28, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
DJIA in a strong rally +93pts
S&P +13
10-yr 2.276%
Looks like the markets are setting up for a dovish Fed statement tomorrow. Odds are they will end the Asset Purchase program, but the markets are already set up for that.
I'm thinking a dovish Fed is USD bullish.
Mtl JP 17:16 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
...IBM, +0.62% said Tuesday its board of directors authorized a new $5 billion stock buyback program. This adds to an existing share repurchase program, which had $1.4 billion remaining as of the end of September. Big Blue said it expects to request an additional share buyback authorization at the company's board meeting in April.../..
dc CB 16:16 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
JP
330/1850 at 18% makes a exciting conversation topic
Consumer Conf is a psych survey.
Pumping gas is a psych stress point, not a logical spreadsheet.
Most Americans drive SUVs and Pickups. Low 20s mpg, with 25 gallon tanks. Fillup at $3.70...ouch watch those #s roll $92.
dollars. FUp at $2.75 -- $69
GVI Forex Blog 16:16 GMT October 28, 2014
Reply
October 28, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, October 29. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: FOMC Decision
GVI Forex Data Outlook for October 29, 2014
GVI Forex john 16:12 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
October 28, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, October 29.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: FOMC Decision
- Far East: No Major Data
- Europe: No Major Data
- North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Weekly Crude, FOMC Decision
GVI Forex 15:38 GMT October 28, 2014
Beware of Currency Hedgers
Reply
After an extended period of low volatility the forex market has seen activity pick up and daily ranges widen. This has come as a relief to many as it has opened up opportunities to trade. For many retail traders, they treat the market the same no matter how conditions change. I feel it is important to understand the dynamics of the market so you can adjust when conditions change as I will explain in this article.
Beware of Currency Hedgers
GVI Forex john 15:37 GMT October 28, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
15:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Markets remain in a mild RISK-ON posture
Tuesday. Today U.S. data releases have been mixed, but the final two
pieces of data (Richmond Fed and Conference Board Survey), were
considerably stronger than expected . Most are now setting up for the
Fed policy decision
and statement tomorrow. In
Far East trade,
equities ended mixed.
European bourses are ending mostly higher. U.S.
shares are higher at this hour.
U.S. 10-yr yields are steady. 10-yr
yields in bunds are steady, while gilts are down. Peripheral bond
yields are mixed.
The
heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields.
Mtl JP 15:35 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
lets see...
Average Annual Miles per Driver by Age Group
lets take 15,000 miles / yr
lets assume 30 miles/gallon
annual fuel consumption = 500 gallons
500 x $3.70 = $1850
500 x $3.04 = $1520
assumes $330 nominally lesser annual fuel cost expense, ceteris paribus. Hardly a make or break amount, particularly when dived into weekly payments of $6 or $7. Wanna take that to a mortgage dispensing banker and put that on the application ?
-
330/1850 at 18% makes a exciting conversation topic ONLY for a dick-waving pundits.
dc CB 15:30 GMT October 28, 2014
October and Stocks
the high to far 1969 was tagged with 16,500 eminis traded in 5min at 4:15AM....Overnight low vol PPT ramp.
150pt in 9 trading days...impressive stick save
emini
Mtl JP 15:17 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
who are the "being cited" experts ?
names please
tia
NY JM 15:15 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Lower cost of energy, specifically gas at the pump, is being cited as a key reason for the better consumer confidence reading.
dc CB 15:13 GMT October 28, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
GVI Forex john 10:52 GMT
I haven't heard this much this year, but someone on CNBC just mentioned that October tends to be the fiscal yearend for equity mutual funds in the U.S.
Yes. back when Mutual Funds were the only other game in town...at Mutual Funds are "long only", this had a pronounced effect... Re-opening for the new year produced the storied "Santa Claus" Rally. This is before, HedgeFunds and ETFs...which put too many other variables into the mix.
Time was when you could just Buy on or after October 28 and hold into Jan. Look back at some Index charts from the 90's.
Mtl JP 15:13 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Speaking for myself I am not a big fan of operating a roof over one's head with a 3 or 5% down, on a 1 or 2 year teaser rate in a neighbourhood where 2 income household is precarious.
-
I have just been notified of a new municipal evaluation roll. I am facing a 50% hike in my property valuation for municipal taxation purpose. So far I am not hearing from the council that they will reduce the mill rate.
GVI Forex john 15:11 GMT October 28, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
R2 1.2755 was broken earlier, but we were not able to HOLD above it.
R3 1.2788
R2 1.2755
R1 1.2733
for me, where we wind up relative to R2 sets the tone
Note also we are well above the 20-day moving average:
1.2688
We need to break seriously below the 20-day average to rebuild the EURUSD downtrend.
dc CB 14:53 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
it's the price of gas-at-da-pump
on Oct 15th it was $2.9999, the big Woop break of the $3.00 mark.
In June it was $3.65
now look. AKA slealth printing of money For for the "Folks"
Maryland my Maryland
GVI Forex john 14:40 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
JP- the difference is that the cost of a roof over your head is mostly fixed. The significant variable costs are energy and food, which most central Banks conveniently exclude from their inflation calculations. Go figure!
london red 14:33 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
cad. fib 60. further down to 30. close below 65 v bearish longer term. they should hold this 65 into fed. so downside poss to 30-65 and then rebound to 90.
Mtl JP 14:23 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
cost of roof over one's head is arguably the biggest baudget part for most folks.
Shiller shows that folks's "asset" is curently again loosing in price.
GVI Forex john 14:19 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
PM As you suggested, it might be energy (not just gasoline!) prices. That is a big part of the budget of most consumers.
Chicago RM 14:13 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
CB must be polling a different country because that blockbuster number does not compute with what I read and hear and see. Ebola, school shootings, geopolitics, inept government. Perhaps it is falling energy prices that is inspiring confidence or maybe the pollsters live in Colorado where weed is legal and they were high when they did the poll.
GVI Forex john 14:08 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
CHART: Univ of Michigan & Conference Board Sentiment. Conference Board Survey much stronger than expected.
SaaR KaL 14:07 GMT October 28, 2014
Day's Trades
I doubt USDJPY goes higher then 108.48 this week
GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Both numbers beat. Consistent with mixed recent data flow from U.S.
london red 14:03 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
19 keeps 31/40 in the game but thats a ball buster of a number.
SaaR KaL 13:44 GMT October 28, 2014
Day's Trades
Short Cable EURUSD AUDUSD
EURJPY GBPJPY
Its a south bound day
NY JM 13:38 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Bad news = good news for stocks day
SaaR KaL 13:38 GMT October 28, 2014
Day's Trades
EURUSD Cable AUDUSD
More like south today
Livingston nh 13:34 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
durable goods fig is "orders" - this affects future GDP - Q3 may surprise to upside on trade figs (final n/a until next mo.) and lower deflator (Q2 knocked out 2 pts from nominal GDP) -- Service based economy
london red 13:29 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
euro. short set up once res tested. short by 68-80, test of 87-91 poss stop over 12806 fib. prev high of 91 will mark right shoulder of shs set up. market will work in these confines probably til end of week, only fed can give signal to move higher 128/129.
13 oct high 68 and trendline also at 68. abv these the res band to be tested. support remains 40 and 31, below back in line to prev band.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:28 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
JP, agree. My point is durable goods is not a # you expect to see follow through but in this case it has raised the dovish risk over the FOMC meeting.
Just watch 1.2750 now that stops have been run.
GVI Forex john 13:12 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
A major number this week is U.S. GDP @12:30 GMT on Thursday. GDP is seen at an annualized prelim 3Q14 3.00% vs. +4.60% in 2Q14..
GVI Forex john 13:12 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
A major number this week is U.S. GDP @12:30 GMT on Thursday. GDP is seen at an annualized prelim 3Q14 3.00% vs. +4.60% in 2Q14..
Mtl JP 13:11 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
now IF you want to play headlines, maybe use Durable Goods to guage a hint at player reaction to CB Consumer Conf exp 87 vs 86 prev will be at top of the hour
london red 13:07 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
cable. while 62 holds, the figure 162 possible. res at prev high 16226
london red 13:04 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
yen. trendline at 46 if 60 taken but they could reach 39, a good point for a quick rebound to 46 trendline and higher to 56/60.
Mtl JP 13:04 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Jay c Bottom Line in my 12:05
-
u (and I) will never out-trigger price reaction to a headline.
because you (and I) are NOT IN THE CIRCLE
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:59 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
There was a time when the durable goods orders report would be ignored since it was subject to wide swings and large revisions.
As with any news, it is the reaction that tells you more than the news itself.
NY JM 12:55 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
You can also use 1.2719-23 (suggests 1.2720) as support.
london red 12:50 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
yen. marginal break of trendline at 74 briefly, but back abv there.
euro. support at 31 and 40. below there as we were. if stays abv then 85.
GVI Forex 12:48 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Bloomberg on Durable Goods.
Durable Goods ".. figures may prompt some economists to cut forecasts for third-quarter GDP. A report later this week is projected to show the world’s largest economy grew at a 3 percent annualized rate from July through September after a 4.6 percent gain in the previous three months"
tokyo ginko 12:47 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
durable good data provide good daily entry level for usdjpy for test higher later...gt all !
Mtl JP 12:44 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
german index up 1.53% = please tell me: how inspiringly good is that ?
GVI Forex john 12:40 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
U.S, data, along with U.K. data recently have turned mixed. Is the economy slowing?
Mtl JP 12:38 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
as does Gold spike higher
GVI Forex john 12:33 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Durable Goods data a miss. Disappointing, EURUSD spikes higher. R1 1.2731 breached. R2 is 1.2755.
GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
U.S. Durable Goods Orders September 2014
NEWS ALERT
Headline: -1.30% vs. +0.30 exp. vs. -18.20% (-18.30%)prev.
Ex-Trans: -0.20% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.40% (+0.70%) prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Mtl JP 12:20 GMT October 28, 2014
Global Markets News
NY JM - see Hils' Grand Central: Fed Stays on Course
..."It adds up to a steady Fed that stays on course to end its bond-buying program and tries to avoid sending loud signals about the outlook for interest rates."
NY JM 12:11 GMT October 28, 2014
Global Markets News
JP, the question is how dovish and is that a USD negative or just a risk on positive?
Mtl JP 12:05 GMT October 28, 2014
Global Markets News
an alternative to "market looked ahead to Wed FOMC decision" is to watch Gold price action . currently SnP is climbing a wall of worry, sending a message to the FED gang to keep near zero rates for “considerable time”.
-
Bottom Line
If you can't not trade shut out the BS and "follow / respect the tape"
london red 11:45 GMT October 28, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
durables create a temporary flap sometimes but best to fade ahead of fed. 12650/12750.
yen. appears to have overcome its problems having bounced off support at 64 and off trendline overnight but needs to close abv 10856. im not sure it can and could top out at current levels. close abv 10856 more constructive look to it and a pretty good downside trigger/stop if necessary at 106.60.
PAR 11:23 GMT October 28, 2014
October and Stocks
Dow above 17000 during this week . S&P above 1900.
TINA
GVI Forex john 10:52 GMT October 28, 2014
October and Stocks
Reply
I haven't heard this much this year, but someone on CNBC just mentioned that October tends to be the fiscal yearend for equity mutual funds in the U.S. That means they wanted to lock in their profits for their year early in the month and also take tax losses for the benefit of their investors. I don't know the technicalities of the business, but this fiscal yearend effect is a major reason why October tends to be a bad month for shares.
This guy also mentioned how hard it has become to buy and sell small cap stocks since government interference has removed a lot of the depth (liquidity) from the markets. This has become a common theme recently.
SaaR KaL 10:24 GMT October 28, 2014
Day's Trades
AUDUSD wants a correction south folks
GVI Forex john 09:20 GMT October 28, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Reply
09:15 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
European markets are in a mild RISK-ON
posture early on Tuesday. There have been no major data
releases
from Europe today. Most are now setting up for the Fed policy decision
and statement tomorrow. In
Far East trade,
equities ended mixed.
European bourses are mostly higher. lower U.S.
share futures are higher at this hour.
U.S. 10-yr yields are steady. 10-yr
yields in bunds are steady, while gilts are down. Peripheral bond
yields are mixed.
The
heat map color scheme
of interest rates reflects yields.
GVI Forex john 08:55 GMT October 28, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
EARLIER; Japanese Retail Sales yy. Steady very recent improvement?
SaaR KaL 08:10 GMT October 28, 2014
Day's Trades
not a good idea holding cable longs above 1.6130 this week
IMO 1.6140 to 1.6180 is a short level
for 1.6000
SaaR KaL 07:43 GMT October 28, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply
Shorts on AUDUSD
0.8860
0.8888
0.8917
tgt 0.8700
Syd 03:28 GMT October 28, 2014
GBP/USD Buoyant Amid Weaker USD Sentiment -- Market Talk
Reply
GBP/USD is likely to consolidate with a bullish bias Tuesday. The pair is supported by weaker dollar sentiment, although gains are tempered by decreased investor risk appetite as caution prevails ahead of Wednesday's policy announcement from the Federal Reserve. Daily chart is tilting positive as MACD indicator is in bullish mode, while the slow stochastic measure is turning bullish. Resistance is at 1.6147 (Monday's high); a breach would expose upside to 1.6184 (Oct. 21 high), then to 1.6226 (Oct. 9 high).
Syd 03:27 GMT October 28, 2014
AUD/USD Biased Up, Buoyed by Weaker USD Sentiment -- Market Talk
Reply
AUD/USD is likely to consolidate with risks skewed higher Tuesday. The pair is supported by weaker dollar sentiment, although gains are tempered by subdued investor risk appetite and Aussie sales on the soft AUD/NZD cross. The daily chart is tilting positive as the MACD indicator is in a bullish mode, while the slow stochastic measure is turning bullish. Resistance is at 0.8823-0.8832 band (Monday's high-Oct. 21 high); a breach would target 0.8860 (Oct. 15 high), then 0.8898 (Oct. 9 high).
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:56 GMT October 28, 2014
AceTrader Oct 28: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Oct 2014 01:08GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Statement from BoJ Governor Kuroda, quote:
'-Japan's economy is showing some weakness mainly in output but positive cycle remain intact
-job, income conditions improving steadily
-private consumption solid as a trend with non-durable goods sales emerging from sales tax hike pain
-Tankan shows many firms expect effect of sales tax hike to be temporary
-Japan's economy likely to continue moderate recovery with effect of tax hike seen easing
-consumer inflation slowing somewhat due to recent energy price falls but likely to hover around 1-1.5 pct for time being
-QQE exerting intended effects, japan on steady path toward meeting boj's price target
-Japan only half way in meeting boj's price target
-won't hesitate to adjust policy should risks threaten achievement of boj's price target
-negative yields seen in boj's short-term bill auctions are sign of how powerful effect of boj's monetary easing is
-BOJ is not trying to guide yields to negative territory, it is only consequence of its stimulus policy
-yen weakness so far has been positive for Japan's economy '
Tuesday will see the release of Japan's retail sales, German import index, U.S. durable goods, Redbook, CaseShiller house price and consumer confidence.
GVI Forex 01:32 GMT October 28, 2014
USDJPY
Reply
107.91 = daily pivot
GVI Forex 00:59 GMT October 28, 2014
EURUSD
Reply
1.2723,= Monday high
1.2727 = 50% of 1.2840-1.2614
1.2731 = S1 and chart resistance
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