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Forex Forum Archive for 10/29/2014

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USA ZEUS 22:57 GMT October 29, 2014
NZD/USD

USA ZEUS 20:01 GMT 10/29/2014
$NZDUSD Long at .7771

Closed at .7816 for + 45 pips

Sydney ACC 22:01 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

The cash rate is 3.5%. The latest 12 months CPI was 1.3%. That leaves NZ together with NZ as the only countries with positive real rates of return. Australia has, however, only 0.2% real rate of return. This alone makes NZD really attractive.
On the other hand fundamentals are weak. Plus China and other emerging market economies are weakening. Its possible that with FOMC now behind us the market may concentrate on the fundamentals.
AUD/NZD is probably the best indicator.

GVI Forex john 21:50 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Bottom-line, the RBNZ is trying to jawbone its currency lower again. Do the markets care?

I don't think so, any other thoughts?

GVI Forex john 21:32 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

OCR unchanged at 3.5 percent

Statement issued by Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler:

The global economy is growing at a moderate rate although recent data suggests some softening in the major economies, apart from the United States. Monetary policy is expected to remain supportive for longer in all the major economies.

Growth in the New Zealand economy has been faster than trend over 2014, reducing unemployment and adding to demands on productive capacity. Strong construction sector activity, high net immigration, and interest rates, which remain low by historic standards, continue to support the expansion. Output growth is expected to moderate over coming years, towards a more sustainable rate.

Lower commodity prices and increased global financial market volatility have taken some pressure off the New Zealand dollar. However, its current level remains unjustified and unsustainable and continues to constrain growth in the tradables sector. We expect a further significant depreciation.

CPI inflation remains modest, and was 1 percent in the year to September. Contributing factors are subdued wage inflation, well-anchored inflation expectations, weak global inflation, falls in oil prices, and the high New Zealand dollar. House price inflation has fallen significantly since late-2013, in part due to interest rate increases and the LVR restrictions.

The economy appears to be adjusting to the policy measures undertaken by the Bank over the past year. CPI inflation is currently at a low level despite above-trend growth. However, inflation is expected to increase as the expansion continues. A period of assessment remains appropriate before considering further policy adjustment

GVI Forex john 21:27 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



October 29, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, October 30. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: NZ- RBNZ decision, DE- Unemployment, US- Weekly Jobless, GDP, 7-yr

  • Far East: NZ- RBNZ decision
  • Europe: CH- KOF Index, DE- Unemployment, EZ- Consumer Confidence
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, GDP, Natural Gas, 7-yr.


Tallinn viies 21:22 GMT October 29, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
not planning t buy euro at 20 anymore.
sell order loewred to 1,2650 with stop at 1,2700.
we will see 1,2550 before 1,2700

GVI Forex john 20:43 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

THURSDAY
08:55  DE unemployment
12:30  US Initial Claims
12:30  US GDP broadest growth measure
FRIDAY
00:30 JP Core CPI BOJ target
04:30 JP Bank of Japan No Rate change seen
07:00 DE Ret Sales Consumer demand
10:00 EZ FL HICP  ECB target
12:30  US PCE deflator Fed Target
13:55  US U Mich final Key Sentiment Survey

GVI Forex john 20:42 GMT October 29, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


USD & EUR Pivots. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System



GVI Forex john 20:26 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

BOC's Poloz:
- Continued policy stimulus needed to close output gap
- Considerable excess capacity in economy
- Current policy appropriate

GVI Forex john 20:19 GMT October 29, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

Closing Values...

GVI Forex john 20:06 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

RBNZ: NZD level is still unjustifiable and unsustainable..

USA ZEUS 20:01 GMT October 29, 2014
NZD/USD
Reply   
$NZDUSD Long at .7771

GVI Forex john 20:00 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

BREAKING NEWS:October 2014 Reserve Bank of New Zealand





NEWS ALERT
Keeps rates steady at 3.50%, as expected


RELEASE: Reserve Bank of New Zealand


TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 19:50 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

cable. 15994. below here extends the downside. people will start talking 15750/15850. if they can stay abv into the close, there might be a little relief rally london am but stops abv 16090 are unlikely to be troubled.
kiwi. market forced me into short after fomc and will be going flat into meeting. last low at 7793 in focus and if you squint you can see a shs. 4h shows this up well. anything below 7790 takes us below the neck with an eventual target of c. 7600. even if they bounce 7974 should continue to prove an infallible for bears on a closing basis over the coming days.

PAR 19:45 GMT October 29, 2014
Stock Markets

Comrades at PPT did a great job today . They shoulg get a big bonus as will the rest of Wallstreet.

GVI Forex john 19:43 GMT October 29, 2014
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 19:38 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

RBNZ due at 20:00 not 21:00 as indicated at top of page.

GVI Forex Blog 19:34 GMT October 29, 2014
Fed Policy Decision As Expected, But Tone of Economic Comments More Bullish Than Seen
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: NZ- RBNZ decision, DE- Unemployment, US- Weekly Jobless, GDP, 7-yr

Key items Thursday include German unemployment data and U.S. GDP.A RBNZ policy announcement is due very shortly. The latest FOMC decision saw he central Bank put an end to its Asset Purchase Program and kept rates steady as widely expected. The tone of the statement was seen as more hawkish than expected. Some felt the comments move forward the data for the first rate hike to Spring 2015.

Fed Policy Decision As Expected, But Tone of Economic Comments More Bullish Than Seen

Amman wfakhoury 19:14 GMT October 29, 2014
AUDUSD 0.8888 confirmed
Reply   
AUDUSD 0.8888 confirmed will be reached..starting and return level 0.8800 and decline below it will return to it.



The only one in the world who confirms the next level


SaaR KaL 19:06 GMT October 29, 2014
Day's Trades

Syd/
So what?

Sydney ACC 19:03 GMT October 29, 2014
Day's Trades

RBNZ interest rate statement in two hours.

SaaR KaL 19:02 GMT October 29, 2014
Day's Trades

NDX TGT is < 3860
in 2 days

Mtl JP 19:01 GMT October 29, 2014
calling on all non-chickens

stocks now have one hour to prove me right (i.e. close green)
DJIA off 0.32%
SnP off 0.36%

SaaR KaL 18:57 GMT October 29, 2014
Day's Trades

More happy longing NZDUSD Then AUDUSD

will wait for AUDUSD Next day

Mtl JP 18:41 GMT October 29, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

something eerie freeki spooki about my dlryen R3 sl

SaaR KaL 18:41 GMT October 29, 2014
Day's Trades

AUDNZD
is good short

SaaR KaL 18:38 GMT October 29, 2014
Day's Trades

USDCAD SHorts
will keep adding from above 1.12
USDJPY adding above 108.7

Tallinn viies 18:37 GMT October 29, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
sell order to 1,2682. stop at 1,2732

Mtl JP 18:32 GMT October 29, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

scratched the dlryen R3 play
so now it will probably turn lower

PAR 18:29 GMT October 29, 2014
Stock Markets
Reply   
Comrades ordered PPT to bring market back in positive record territory .

Paris ib 18:28 GMT October 29, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

3 year up 10 basis points

london red 18:28 GMT October 29, 2014
eurusd

right, price is the news.
dec 10 just a whisker ahead of 61.8. if they move below then 12606/13 and risk of last line in sand 12570. you want to be short thru that if not yet on board.

GVI Forex john 18:27 GMT October 29, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

10-yr 2.350% +5bp

Mtl JP 18:26 GMT October 29, 2014
eurusd

those who must/like to play follow priceaction
and ignore BS

SaaR KaL 18:26 GMT October 29, 2014
Day's Trades

NDX Might do another 3800 again

Longing EURUSD for 1.2780 again

Tallinn viies 18:25 GMT October 29, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
what they did not mention today is the QE4 which will come to "cinemas" next year :)

Paris ib 18:25 GMT October 29, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Jay you were right.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:24 GMT October 29, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

I posted this on GVI Forex earlier

It feels like a setup for an FOMC disappointment (= uber dovish) but only gut talking

Paris ib 18:22 GMT October 29, 2014
eurusd

Yessir. Slightly more hawkish than the entire world anticipated. And given the reaction you can imagine just how one sided the market was going into this.

Mtl JP 18:20 GMT October 29, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

john I am taking u up on that dlryen R3, 13pip sl

Tallinn viies 18:17 GMT October 29, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
in my view this sentence pushing euro down - They mentioned that the likelihood of inflation below 2.0%
had diminished somewhat.

so bond guys who talked about deflation trends in the world to reach in US shores at the end got it wrong

LUX. JB 18:16 GMT October 29, 2014
eurusd

SL level?

Paris ib 18:15 GMT October 29, 2014
Hawkish FED

"The Committee judges that there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market since the inception of its current asset purchase program. Moreover, the Committee continues to see sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing progress toward maximum employment in a context of price stability."

GVI Forex john 18:15 GMT October 29, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

USDJPY
R3 108.78

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:14 GMT October 29, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Outside day in eurusd, focus back to diverging monetary ;policies.

GVI Forex john 18:12 GMT October 29, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD
S1 1.2692 broken
S2 1.2649
S3 1.2612

Tallinn viies 18:11 GMT October 29, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
order to go long euro at 1,2620

Paris ib 18:11 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Why John? The FED is slightly more hawkish. The short end is getting creamed. EURO is softer. The ECB will be OK with a softer Euro and needs no reason to ease with short term market rates in the States heading higher. ECB sits pat.

SaaR KaL 18:11 GMT October 29, 2014
Day's Trades

Cable Longs as well

GVI Forex john 18:09 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

No major surprises from the Fed will keep pressure on the ECB to ease.

PAR 18:07 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Almost no market impact. Dollar marginally stronger , stocks marginally lower , PPT in full control . Central committee and the comrades happy with decision of comrade Yellen.

GVI Forex john 18:07 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Press Release

Paris ib 18:07 GMT October 29, 2014
Hawkish FED
Reply   
Statement mildly more hawkish than usual. Dollar loves this. Bonds not so much, in fact they are getting creamed. Stocks not liking this at all.

dc CB 18:05 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

*KOCHERLAKOTA DISSENTS AT FOMC, SEEKING QE CONTINUATION

SaaR KaL 18:04 GMT October 29, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
Buying gold an silver

GVI Forex john 18:04 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

FED:
Rates near zero for a considerable time
Significant improvement in employment

PAR 18:02 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Did Bullard ask for QE4 ?

GVI Forex john 18:00 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Fed Policy Decision October 2014




NEWS ALERT
Rates: Unchanged
Asset Purchases: ENDED

RELEASE: Policy Statement


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 17:58 GMT October 29, 2014
It Doesn't Matter What the Fed Says

JP - a panic QE might trigger a rally but all the juice has been squeezed out of the QE lemon - unless money moves more QE is like a big mountain, impressive because of size but generally useless and an impediment to progress

dc CB 17:58 GMT October 29, 2014
It Doesn't Matter What the Fed Says

the first move is always wrong

Paris ib 17:57 GMT October 29, 2014
It Doesn't Matter What the Fed Says

CB - lol. So that just leaves us, the great unwashed to tosh around in the waves of whatever comes.....

dc CB 17:55 GMT October 29, 2014
It Doesn't Matter What the Fed Says

you can be pretty sure that Hilzey has the Statement now and is busy writting his take on What It all Means.

odds on that others have the info too and have set their computers to fire a few milliseconds before the Hour

Paris ib 17:54 GMT October 29, 2014
Long Droning Press Conference?

No presser. Bit of a relief that. That voice doesn't do a lot for me. Right so we have the privilege of pouring over a dull statement for clues about what? The fact that interest rates are on hold for the immediate future (let's say 6 months at least) and that nothing will or can be done in the meantime? Right, great.... why do we even care? Anyhow thanks CB.

Paris ib 17:52 GMT October 29, 2014
Bond Traders Having Fun
Reply   
Being a Trader on the U.S. Treasury Market these days must be lots of fun. NOT. Heart attacks all round.

Mtl JP 17:52 GMT October 29, 2014
It Doesn't Matter What the Fed Says

nh you would probably "see the white of their eyes" if stocks puke 15-20+%

dc CB 17:52 GMT October 29, 2014
Long Droning Press Conference?

no presser

Yellen speaks tom at 9AM
Due to deliver opening remarks at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System's National Summit on Diversity in the Economics Profession, in Washington DC;

Paris ib 17:46 GMT October 29, 2014
Long Droning Press Conference?
Reply   
Is that what they have planned for us this evening?

Paris ib 17:42 GMT October 29, 2014
It Doesn't Matter What the Fed Says

"There is no plan"...... quite. Very reassuring. When do these guys go to jail?

Livingston nh 17:37 GMT October 29, 2014
It Doesn't Matter What the Fed Says

No DOTS and no QE extensions today so with the demise of QE the only tool the Fed has left is an announcement re: the investment allocation of the interest and maturing proceeds on the massive balance sheet -- everything else is market interpretation of promises -- no guarantees and no actions // even language changes "considerable, extended or whatever period" can change interpretation but it is mere conjecture (and certainly not binding on this Crew) -- so until you see the whites of the eyes of an actual rate hike nothing actually changes

There is no plan for an exit or for control if balance sheet leakage occurs - the ship is on automatic pilot

Mtl JP 17:34 GMT October 29, 2014
calling on all non-chickens

Babsom Break (3% puke) would be:
DJIA: 16490
SnP : 1919.6
-
10% DJIA puke off 17,000 would be => 15,300
10% SnP puke off 1979 would be => 1781
--
ps / these are not predictions; just using mental calculator

GVI Forex john 17:30 GMT October 29, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

Pre-Fed 10-yr 2.328% +2.8bp
DJ -18pts
SP -4

SaaR KaL 17:30 GMT October 29, 2014
calling on all non-chickens

12 sigma is 1/12^2

PAR 17:29 GMT October 29, 2014
QE Didn't Work Anyhow

Regardless, QE3 clearly was a boon for financial markets. Since the Fed announced a third round of quantitative easing in September 2012, the Dow has risen 26% while suffering no declines of 10% or more. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has risen to a modest 2.284% and the price of Nymex crude-oil futures has tumbled 17%.

The question now is what comes next. The Dow fell after previous stimulus rounds amid weak global growth. Signs that Europe is struggling with deflation could hit stocks around the world in coming months, analysts say.

For now, the Fed will continue buying bonds only to replace maturing debt. Officials have made clear they don’t expect to resume full-scale stimulus soon. But they also have left the door open just in case.

PAR 17:26 GMT October 29, 2014
QE Didn't Work Anyhow

As housing market struggles, the rich are refinancing.

Maybe even Bernanke ?

Mtl JP 17:01 GMT October 29, 2014
calling on all non-chickens

12 sigma ... is that 16% ?

dc CB 16:47 GMT October 29, 2014
calling on all non-chickens

It is here where as Brean Capital's Peter Tchir shows in the table below, that the Fed is now the proud owner of over half of the total outstandings in the entire 10-15 Year bucket!

(chart)

In short: the simple reason why there is no more liquidity in cash Treasury securities (Treasury futures are a different matter entirely) is because the Fed is now the proud owner of a majority stake of what once was the most liquid maturity across the most liquid bond market in the world.

So the next time the market freaks out and bonds have a 12 sigma move, once the shock and awe passes, fee free to send your thank you cards to the Marriner Eccles building for destroying what once upon a time was the deepest, most liquid market in the world.

The One Table That Explains Why There No Longer Is Any Treasury Liquidity

dc CB 16:32 GMT October 29, 2014
calling on all non-chickens

remember remember the 15th of Oct. the death of the Bond Shorts. 30Y-Dec 148 00 down today to 140 30...remarkable.

dc CB 16:20 GMT October 29, 2014
Auction
Reply   
there is a 5y that anncs just after the top of the hour 1PM

london red 16:13 GMT October 29, 2014
euro refresh

i rarely front run particularly on big bang stuff like fomc. will play the lvls for euro and cable, but side issues will be loonie which i touched on and kiwi which i mentioned loosely earlier. kiwi has failed to close abv the 23.6 of 88/77 (7974) despite numerous forays abv. depending of fomc playout, could be another op to short this one abv the fib after fomc, with the rbnz statement coming before the rollover, giving the mkt plenty of time to get this one up and down before the bell. i expect rbnz will disown the kiwi abv 80 cents/dovish fed. they dont mince their words and want this puppy much lower.

london red 16:05 GMT October 29, 2014
calling on all non-chickens

stocks looking good now well abv 75/76 but 10yr not liking it, yields on the creep. so hard to call before fed. one of them is going to be wrong. dec 10 has retraced more than 50% of gains sept/black wed. if was a normal instrument you expect a first rebound to come at 61.8 or top of prev range, so 126.36/16. so they can get down to there, reverse and finish higher. fomc speak, that could mean hawkish fed (relative to expectations) and stocks down so they buy bonds on fear trade after initial sell off/spike.

Miami JN 16:01 GMT October 29, 2014
euro refresh

red do you have a strategy or preference for the fomc or are you just going with your levels?

london red 15:55 GMT October 29, 2014
euro refresh
Reply   
trendline today at 83, fib 86 (61.8 120/140), these should cap euro ahead of fed. another fib 2806 (61.8 125/130), nxt trendline 2835. a prev high at 2791 keeps shs in play so a break here should bring said upper lvls into play. imp support at 12686, 12570 test in coming days if broken. ahead of this main support is 12719, another pivotal lvl.
cable. last high at 16185, going to v imp lvl. a break higher implies 16220/33 (you can add thru 162) then 16280 if broken. on the downside 16088/90, below there we are looking at retest of lows.
there is no conference today so should be a case of following the trend and using lvls to continuance or end.

Mtl JP 15:55 GMT October 29, 2014
calling on all non-chickens
Reply   
that want to predict today's stocks close:
Green or
Red ?

Paris ib 15:28 GMT October 29, 2014
QE Didn't Work Anyhow
Reply   
"the volume of applications for home purchases is the lowest since August 1995".... so the lowest in a fairly long time.

QE has not 'helped' the economy. I remain of the view that the intent of QE was never to 'help' the economy but rather to ensure that the Government could roll over existing debt at extremely low levels of interest. That happened. Now bond yields are starting to creep higher (at the short end where it counts). The question is: now what?

I think we all know what the answer is to that and it's ugly.

The Charts

GVI Forex Blog 15:26 GMT October 29, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The FOMC decision drops later today, and there is little chance the committee will not end the QE bond buying program as expected. All eyes are on whether the "considerable time" language remains a part of the statement or gets removed. Whether it goes now or in December, Fed watchers expect it to be replaced by something similar in spirit but without any calendar-based overtones.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: FOMC Poised to Pull the Plug on QE

GVI Forex john 15:12 GMT October 29, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On


15:20 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Markets remain in a RISK-ON posture heading into the FOMC policy decision in a short while. Equity traders have been buying stocks on seasonal reasons and expectations for a dovish Fed policy statement. The Bank is seen  ending  its asset purchases, which is being phased out.  In Far East trade, equities ended higher.  European bourses are higher. U.S. shares are down at this hour.

U.S. 10-yr yields are higher. 10-yr bund and gilts yields are higher as well. Peripheral bond yields are mostly down.




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


nw kw 14:36 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Iran oil was selling cheaper and dragged oil down, might subside

GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

US EIA Weekly Inventories




NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +2.060 vs. +3.000 exp vs. +7.100 prev.
Gasoline: -1.240 vs. -1.000 exp vs. +1.300 prev.
Distillates: -5.300vs. -1.500 exp vs. +1.050 prev.
Cap/Util: 86.6 vs. 86.8% exp vs. 88.10% prev.

Weekly Petroleum Status Report



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 14:29 GMT October 29, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

10-yr 2.305% +0.5bp

DJ +18
SP 0

nw kw 14:28 GMT October 29, 2014
USDCAD

cad and the commodity index are correlated last I heard crb looking for support I haven't checked the cart but it can help bit, if usa gdp was bad cad gdp will be soft

GVI Forex Blog 14:11 GMT October 29, 2014 Reply   
October 29, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, October 30. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: NZ- RBNZ decision, DE- Unemployment, US- Weekly Jobless, GDP, 7-yr

GVI Forex Data Outlook for October 30, 2014

london red 14:09 GMT October 29, 2014
It Doesn't Matter What the Fed Says

dec 10yr. 126.36, top of prior range. within range if fed disappoints (isnt dovish enough)

Livingston nh 14:08 GMT October 29, 2014
It Doesn't Matter What the Fed Says

FOMC - Fear Of Monster (in) Closet

WATCH what they DO; NOT what they SAY

GVI Forex john 14:07 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



October 29, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, October 30. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: NZ- RBNZ decision, DE- Unemployment, US- Weekly Jobless, GDP, 7-yr

  • Far East: NZ- RBNZ decision
  • Europe: CH- KOF Index, DE- Unemployment, EZ- Cpnsumer Confidence
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobless, GDP, Natural Gas, 7-yr.


Mtl JP 13:54 GMT October 29, 2014
It Doesn't Matter What the Fed Says



early 10-yr note price (slips some)

UK AT 13:45 GMT October 29, 2014
AUD risk

How about audjpy at 100?

dc CB 13:44 GMT October 29, 2014
It Doesn't Matter What the Fed Says



“The exit protocol has been so well documented for the last nine months that the market has fully priced it in,” said Barbara J. Cummings, who manages a $3.5 billion fixed-income portfolio for the Boston Private Bank & Trust Company. “I don’t anticipate any movement. I feel as though this is one meeting where they almost don’t need to hold it because they have made it perfectly clear.”

Fed Plans Next Phase as End to Stimulus Program Is Expected

london red 13:33 GMT October 29, 2014
USDCAD

2.5 yards 1.1075 at cut today. 38.2 at 11094, lowest close of last low 11104, couple of big trendlines clash at 11020.

GVI Forex 13:30 GMT October 29, 2014
USDCAD
Reply   


Daily chart shows next support at 1.1070-85

Mtl JP 13:29 GMT October 29, 2014
Subprime revisited

low and lower price is yet another "solution"

HK REVDAX 13:25 GMT October 29, 2014
Subprime revisited

What is the solution to the solution to pay higher wages? Print more cash? Starting strikes? or raise the productivity of the workers so that they can compete internationally?

HK REVDAX 13:21 GMT October 29, 2014
Subprime revisited

A saying goes like this:"Big fortunes come from destiny, while small fortunes come through saving." Still an idiot to save?

london red 13:16 GMT October 29, 2014
Inequality

another important lesson. the news is the price. for mere mortals, the news will always be too late to enable digestion (making the trading decision) and then reaction (execution). the best you can do is eye the headline and follow the money (the break). thus the news is the price.
but for this you need razor sharp execution, tight spreads, ample hardware and subzero hesitation. GV has touched on the broker aspect not once. get in touch with them for more broker info.

PAR 13:11 GMT October 29, 2014
Subprime revisited

With interest rates at ZERO and real inflation at 1.7 % you need to be an idiot to save .

shanghai bc 13:09 GMT October 29, 2014
Subprime revisited


House ownership has a lot to do with savings rate of that society..For example,Chinese salary is not high but savings rate is one of the highest in the world..The result is 85% house ownership in the cities..

PAR 13:04 GMT October 29, 2014
Subprime revisited

Americans wages are so low that they can no longer afford to buy a house . Only solution is to pay higher wages and salaries , not to lower lending standards .

PAR 13:01 GMT October 29, 2014
France & Italy
Reply   
BRUSSELS (AFP) -
France and Italy may have scraped through an initial review of 2015 budget plans but they and others running excessive deficits may still have to do more to meet EU rules, the European Commission said Wednesday.

A more detailed assessment next month will show whether other measures are needed and "it cannot be excluded" that the Commission may have to take further steps to ensure compliance, EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Jyrki Katainen said.

Mtl JP 12:56 GMT October 29, 2014
Subprime revisited

Homeownership drops to two-decade low

PAR 12:54 GMT October 29, 2014
Inequality
Reply   
WASHINGTON—Hedge funds and other rapid-fire investors can get access to market-moving documents ahead of other users of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s system for distributing company filings, giving them a potential edge on the rest of the market.





Two separate groups of academic researchers have documented a lag time between the moment paying subscribers, including trading firms, newswires and others, receive the filings via a direct feed from an SEC contractor and when the documents are publicly available on the agency’s website.

The studies found a wide variation in the lag time, from no delay to one lasting more than a minute—a considerable advantage for computer-driven traders. The ability to get the information before it is on the SEC site can give traders precious seconds to act on the news.

GVI Forex 12:43 GMT October 29, 2014
AUD risk
Reply   


AUD at key resistance level (daily chart)

GVI Forex john 12:26 GMT October 29, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

USDJPY
pivot 108.00
R1 108.31
S1 107.83

USDJPY also at neutral pivot point levels ahead of the Fed.

GVI Forex 12:15 GMT October 29, 2014
It Doesn't Matter What the Fed Says
Reply   

Part of our advocacy is to pass on insights to our members that will hopefully help with trading. This is one of those times as all global traders are fixated on today’s FOMC decision and accompanying statement. The key focus is on the statement as each change in the language will be scrutinized under a microscope for any hints of what maybe ahead. But, does it matter? Is this just an excuse to move markets?

It Doesn't Matter What the Fed Says

SaaR KaL 12:13 GMT October 29, 2014
Day's Trades

NDX...Expect the un expected on the south side

GVI Forex john 12:06 GMT October 29, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD pivot 1.2729 (more a neutral level today)
R1 1.2772
S1 1.2692

Livingston nh 12:06 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

thanx, red

london red 12:03 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

loonie. interesting opening, move straight lower through yesterdays 65 support. leaves daily candle with two options. first option a sharp move to 11094/11104. generally, when we fail to retrace a good portion of the previous periods range, we tend to get a sharp move in the prevailing direction. normally i would expect to see 11190-11206 (the second option ie. we do some back towards the end of the session), but given the early price action a move to the suggested range of 11094-11104 is quite possible. its fomc night and we could do the extension down to 1.11, then they see or hear something they dont like and we go to 11206 plus. this is a possibility and i will certain be looking for a rebound as a base view from 1.11.

Livingston nh 11:59 GMT October 29, 2014
USD/CAD
Reply   
Anybody ideas on CAD strength? - dropped below 21 dma and looks lower today

GVI Forex john 11:33 GMT October 29, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   



USD & EUR Pivots. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System


PAR 11:10 GMT October 29, 2014
Subprime revisited

United States MBA Mortgage Applications declined to -6.6% in October 24 from previous 11.6%

GVI Forex Blog 11:03 GMT October 29, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
FX price action was in a pause mode ahead of the FOMC rate decision. The Fed was posed to end its QE3 program but dealers noted that bond buying would remain a tool in the central bank's monetary-policy arsenal and could employed again in times of deep economic trouble

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Waiting for the Fed

LUX. JB 10:56 GMT October 29, 2014
Day's Trades

For the next few months? Are you a prophet?

PAR 10:34 GMT October 29, 2014
Subprime revisited
Reply   
FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at a business forum in South Africa US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said that the current positive trend in US economy should continue, although he expressed concerns about the weak rebound on the housing market.

He called for easing lending conditions to boost mortgages. He also pointed to the need of a tax reform and improvements in the US infrastructure.

Moreover the suggested that Europe needs a more responsible fiscal policy while China should concentrate on implementing the necessary economic reforms, making its policy more market oriented. However, the Chinese growth slowdown woes are exaggerated, Lew stressed.

GVI Forex john 10:08 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

I agree 100%. I thought you were thinking about a tightening. I don't understand the RBNZ tightening bias with rates at a lofty 3.50%!

london red 10:02 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

john if you mean room for a cut i agree, but tightening is way off the radar. i bet there base view privately is no tightening at all next year.
so if fed gives the kiwi a bump higher i would fade into rbnz meet.

GVI Forex john 09:53 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



Red - I think the RBNZ is worried about deflation. I feel the attached chart is driving policy. There is no room for a policy tightening now.

london red 09:38 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

john i expect the rbnz to fade any fed dovish slant.

GVI Forex john 09:11 GMT October 29, 2014
BREAKING NEWS





RBNZ Decision early Thursday

"In tomorrow's OCR Review, we expect the OCR to remain unchanged at 3.50%, the pause duration to extend, and the resumption of the tightening cycle to become conditional. All this is currently priced in, such that 2yr swap rates should not move materially in response." -- Westpac NZ

SaaR KaL 09:09 GMT October 29, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
NGAS and OIl are bullish for a few months IMO

So In general for next few months
Short NDX, USDCAD, USDJPY , USDZAR
Long Cable, EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, Long Gold and SIlver



GVI Forex Blog 08:57 GMT October 29, 2014
Dovish Fed Policy Decision Seen Later Today. Quiet Data Calendar
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- FOMC Decision

The focus today is the latest FOMC decision and late in the U.S. day a RBNZ policy announcement. Markets are setting up for a dovish policy statement from the Fed on Wednesday. An end to the Asset Purchase Program is already priced. Key items Thursday include German unemployment data and U.S. GDP.

Dovish Fed Policy Decision Seen Later Today. Quiet Data Calendar

london red 08:57 GMT October 29, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

cable. bounced of trendline at 16123 and circling fib at 16125. i can see a second support at 16111 which i would prefer to back. could result in a test and rebound to create a bear trap through broekn trendline mentioned.

Sydney ACC 08:53 GMT October 29, 2014
QE - The end which is not the end

Federal Reserve accounting rules call for net income to be remitted to the Treasury, after covering operating expenses, paying dividends to member banks, and reserving funds to equate surplus capital to paid-in capital. Remittances were nearly $80 billion in 2013.

GVI Forex john 08:47 GMT October 29, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Reply   

08:45 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Markets remain in a RISK-ON posture heading into the FOMC policy decision today. Equity traders have been buying stocks based on expectations for a dovish policy statement later today. The Bank is widely expected to announce an end to its asset purchase program, which it steadily has been phasing out.  In Far East trade, equities ended higher.  European bourses are higher. U.S. share futures are steady at this hour.

U.S. 10-yr yields are lower. 10-yr yields in bunds are steady, while gilts are unchanged as well. Peripheral bond yields are lower.




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


PAR 08:39 GMT October 29, 2014
EURUSD
Reply   
FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team remark that the SEB sees the recent rise in EUR/USD as just a correction to the earlier decline.

Key quotes

"Even though our call yesterday for a potentially completed upward correction was proven wrong we continue to see the climb as merely a correction to the preceding descent."

"Resistance above 1.2740 should be firming so we doubt to find strength enough to stray away too far from that area."

london red 07:43 GMT October 29, 2014
euro
Reply   
not much movement overnight ahead of fomc, expect a little backfill towards 12719 with buyers probably coming in the to move it a bit higher again. outside chance of 12686, but we shouldnt see below that, shock events excepted.

PAR 07:02 GMT October 29, 2014
QE - The end which is not the end
Reply   
As with the end of the war in Iraq which was not the end of the war in Iraq , the end of QE3 will not be the end of QE.

Santa Claus Yellen keeps reinvesting the interest collected on the FED s $ trillion bondporfolio , + $ 160 billion a year.

As Bullard said if the stock market should ever correct by 10% a new QE4 may be announced .

Contrary to what she says Yellen is pro income inequality and will do whatever it takes to reactionary keep the status quo and protect her banker and hedge fund friends happy.

What is good for JoeSixpack , falling oil , has Yellen worried .She doesnt want Joe to be happy as shown in US consumer confidence .

GVI Forex Blog 05:05 GMT October 29, 2014 Reply   
***Economic Data***- (JP) JAPAN SEPT PRELIMINARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 2.7% V 2.2%E (8-month high); Y/Y: +0.6% V -0.1%E - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND OCT ANZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK: 37.8 V 37.0 PRIOR; ANZ BUSINES

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan industrial output recovers; Facebook follows Twitter with steep post-earnings drop - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:50 GMT October 29, 2014 Reply   
Volatility across markets has reduced considerably in run-up to FOMC meeting. Markets will be

Morning Briefing : 29-Oct-2014 -0350 GMT

nw kw 02:56 GMT October 29, 2014
AceTrader Oct 29: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

xaujpy puling up away from gold pack can have strong momentum building in strong usa/usd, gbp/jpy ,eur/jpy, lutes see //xaugbp on weekly support can have xauusd strength

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:47 GMT October 29, 2014
AceTrader Oct 29: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

29 Oct 2014 02:08GMT

USD/JPY...... Despite dlr's volatile trading in Tuesday's NY session after release of mixed U.S. eco data, price rebounded after meeting renewed buying at 107.70 and traded firmly against the yen in NY afternoon.
Dlr rose above European high of 108.17 to a fresh intra-day high of 108.19 near NY close and then marginally higher to 108.23 in Tokyo morning on the rally in Nikkei index (currently up 1.36% to 15538).

Although cross-selling in yen on improved risk appetite after yesterday's rally in global stocks suggests buying on dips is recommended, sharp gain above Monday's 2-week peak at 108.37 is not envisaged as market participants are reluctant to enter large position ahead of the release of FOMC statement later in NY afternoon today.
The Fed is widely expected to announce the end of its bond-buying program today, though uncertainty as to whether or not the statement will contain dovish or hawkish language surrounding interest rates. As no press conference is scheduled, market won't hear any comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

At present, bids are noted at 108.00-107.90 and around 107.80 with mixture of bids and stops emerging below 107.60.
On the upside, offers are placed at 108.30-40 and then 108.50 with stops located just above 108.70, however, heavy selling interest from various accounts is touted in the 108.90-109.10 region.

Wednesday will see the release of Japan's industrial output, New Zealand ANZ business outlook, U.K. mortgage approval and mortgage lending, Canada's producer prices, FOMC rate decision and Fed's monetary policy statement.

dc CB 00:50 GMT October 29, 2014
Goaaaaaaaaaaal!



Closing Summary

All one can conclude from today’s bizarre rally is “no news is good news” and that’s about the sum of it. Bulls did cherry-pick Consumer Confidence but not for the reasons one would suspect. They believed the nonsense that respondents to the survey saw better income ahead. That is probably due to the savings coming from gas expenses period. There may also be some idea that the senate will fall to republicans which may or may not be the case.

Anyway, we’re quickly overbought ahead of the Fed meeting.

Dave's Daily ETF

GVI Forex 00:49 GMT October 29, 2014
Beware of Currency Hedgers


After an extended period of low volatility the forex market has seen activity pick up and daily ranges widen. This has come as a relief to many as it has opened up opportunities to trade. For many retail traders, they treat the market the same no matter how conditions change. I feel it is important to understand the dynamics of the market so you can adjust when conditions change as I will explain in this article.

Beware of Currency Hedgers

GVI Forex Blog 00:26 GMT October 29, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* U.S. dollar softens as market braces for dovish message from Fed * Fall in demand for U.S. capital goods disappoints dollar bulls * Swedish crown hit by dovish Riksbank

FOREX-U.S. dollar wary ahead of Fed, Swedish crown bruised after rate cut

dc CB 00:22 GMT October 29, 2014
Goaaaaaaaaaaal!

at least they don't tax the rain in Col.
oh I forgot, you don't have any rights to the rain in Col.
Ain't America great.

last time out there was 92, the Poudre and the Big South.

Best time out there was 87, my peak...you peak in your 40's so they say. Animas, Silverton to Durango, into the Box.

(that's why I keep an eye on gas-at-da-pump. Weekend trips to the WVa mt's...fun for $70 vs (back in the day) fun for $20.

Dillon AL 00:11 GMT October 29, 2014
Goaaaaaaaaaaal!

and apparently where I am 80+ miles west of Denver up at 10+k feet its priced at the same level as Gold !!!

Dillon AL 00:07 GMT October 29, 2014
Goaaaaaaaaaaal!

lol. actually I am allergic to it. as soon as I smell it it gives me almost an instant headache.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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