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Forex Forum Archive for 10/31/2014

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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dc CB 20:32 GMT October 31, 2014
Free Money on the Highway: White Haired female spotted
Reply   
It was still being determined how much money flew out.

Drivers stopped, got out of their vehicles and started grabbing the cash, police said. So many vehicles stopped that they essentially shut down the northbound lanes of the road. No one was injured. When a fire official also stopped and turned on the emergency lights of his vehicle, drivers fled onto Route 80 with money, police said.

By the time troopers arrived on the scene, “there wasn’t much to pick up,” said Greg Shipley, a spokesman with the state police.

Anyone who took the money should turn it in to the state police barracks in Frederick, officials said.

“Sorry folks, it is not your money,” Shipley said. “If you picked it up and turn it in, you’re being a good citizen.”

And if not?

The highway money grabbers could be charged with theft, according to police. Shipley said investigators would be looking at area traffic cameras to try to identify people.

Money flies on I-270 north

GVI Forex john 20:23 GMT October 31, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

CLOSING VALUES....



HK [email protected] 20:16 GMT October 31, 2014
Support for Swiss gold referendum falls in latest poll
Reply   


By REUTERS
PUBLISHED: 11:21 GMT, 31 October 2014 - UPDATED: 11:21 GMT, 31 October 2014

ZURICH, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Support for a proposal to prohibit the Swiss National Bank from selling any of its gold reserves has waned, according to a poll published on Friday by the free Swiss newspaper 20 Minuten.
The right-wing Swiss People's Party (SVP) has put forward a popular initiative called "Save our Swiss gold" which aims to prevent the central bank from offloading its gold reserves, obliging it to hold at least 20 percent of its assets in gold.
The initiative has sent jitters through both the gold and currency markets, since it would require the SNB to massively bolster its holdings of the precious metal.
Such a buying spree could push gold prices significantly higher, market watchers say. It could also endanger the central bank's three-year-old cap on the franc's value against the euro, by giving the bank less flexibility to buy foreign currency to defend the minimum exchange rate.
The SNB said on Friday euro-denominated assets made up 41 percent of its balance sheet compared with the 7 percent it currently holds in gold.
The poll showed 38 percent of respondents were in favor of the initiative, down from support of 45 percent in a poll in the paper last week. Some 47 percent of those survey opposed the proposals, while 15 percent remained undecided.
The authors of Friday's poll said the survey was conducted online on Oct. 27 with 12,491 voters. Results were then weighted by voter demographics, geography and other political variables in order to better represent the Swiss voting population.
Still, the method of polling is seen as less reliable than that of Berne-based research and polling institute gfs.bern, which published a survey last Friday showing the gold initiative had the support of 44 percent of the public


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-2815635/Support-Swiss-gold-referendum-falls-latest-poll.html#ixzz3HkuMHWzb
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter - DailyMail on Facebook

GVI Forex john 19:57 GMT October 31, 2014
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 19:44 GMT October 31, 2014
COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT
Reply   

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader

Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions





Click on chart for COT Details







Click on chart for COT Details




GVI Forex Blog 18:51 GMT October 31, 2014
Week Ahead
Reply   
•US payrolls to set tone for interest rates expectations

•No policy changes expected for BoE or ECB policy meetings

•UK data watched for indications that economic growth is slowing

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - US PAYROLLS WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF FURTHER LABOUR MARKET TIGHTENING

GVI Forex john 18:46 GMT October 31, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

10-yr 2.330% +1.1bp
DJ +160
SP +18

GVI Forex 18:40 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Virgin Galactic said its SpaceShipTwo rocket plane suffered an "in-flight anomaly" during a powered test flight on Friday — and other sources said ...

GVI Forex john 17:54 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Next Tuesday 4 November
1/3 of the Senate is up for election
entre House is in play

Current forecasts favor Republicans taking control of the Senate by a small margin. Many races are very very close so any result is possible

Republicans are expected to increase their control of the House and pick up a few seats.

Bottom line, Obama could face a hostile legislature in his final two years.



One week from today. She could touch on policy

November 7 Speech--Chair Janet L. Yellen
Policy Since the Onset of the Financial Crisis
At the International Symposium of the Banque de France: Central Banking: The Way Forward?, Paris, France
10:15 a.m. ET

Prague JIT 17:18 GMT October 31, 2014
eurusd

To Tallinn/viies: Hi, old friend. Have you any idea about usd/rub? I took auto-contra-trade above 43 two days ago and got good amm. of pips. Thank you. Regards. :-)

GVI Forex 17:08 GMT October 31, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On

10-yr 2.337 +1.8bp
SP +20
DJIA +174

Strong Friday afternoon trade.



dc CB 16:23 GMT October 31, 2014
Referendum Could Force Central Bank to Buy Gold and Never Sell

yeh that's why Comex Gold and Silver are getting pounded today.

GVI Forex Blog 16:15 GMT October 31, 2014 Reply   
October 31, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, November 3. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Mfg PMI CN- PMIs, EZ- Mfg PMI's CH- PMI, GB- PMI, CA- PMI, US- PMI's

GVI Forex Data Outlook for November 3, 2014

GVI Forex john 16:13 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



October 31, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, November 3. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Mfg PMI CN- PMIs, EZ- Mfg PMI's CH- PMI, GB- PMI, CA- PMI, US- PMI's

  • Far East: AU- Mfg PMI CN- PMIs
  • Europe: EZ- Mfg PMI's CH- PMI, GB- PMI
  • North America: CA- PMI, US- PMI's, Consumer Spending


Livingston nh 16:05 GMT October 31, 2014
Great Rotation???
Reply   
BoJ and Gov Pension Fund add new deck chairs and reorganize their arrangement -- is this the beginning of the Great Rotation out of bonds into stox? -- $200 bio directly into non Japanese stock markets and just in time - all of that has to be converted from yen into some other currencies -- I mentioned no new money into the stox rally but there should be some floating this way soon - meanwhile, some folks might like to buy now so sell FI and buy, buy, buy equities

Hmmm, and I thought the Japanese economy was the problem - I'm sure it will be different this time

Mtl JP 15:52 GMT October 31, 2014
Of Endurance of Debt
Reply   
Britain to repay First World War bonds

LONDON—The U.K. treasury plans to repay part of the debt issued to finance Britain’s role in the World War I.

The treasury said Friday that it would on Feb. 1 repay bonds worth £218 million ($348.8 million) that were issued by Winston Churchill in 1927 to refinance debts the U.K. racked up during the four-year conflict, which claimed millions of lives. .../..
-
side note / US 30-yr treasury note currently pays 3%... pre-tax.

GVI Forex john 15:52 GMT October 31, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Reply   

16:00 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Late in Europe, markets are in a RISK-ON  posture following the policy easing by the Bank of Japan overnight . In response, the JPY is sharply weaker on the news and equities have soared.  Markets are also now hoping for ease from the ECB Thursday. In the Far East, equities ended higher.  European bourses are ending up sharply as well. U.S. share futures are higher at this hour.

U.S. 10-yr yields are higher on data. 10-yr bund yields are down sharply and gilts yields are easier. Peripheral European bond yields are mixed. Political instability see Higher Greek yields




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


Provo John 15:45 GMT October 31, 2014
eurusd

As this came across the newswire, eur$ stopped dead in it's tracks and reversed...

ECB sources say eur 3trl balance sheet target is not on the cards,. says FED has noticed eur slide and ECB must not push too far.

This may just stall things considering it is Friday. Books profits and take you ball home.

GVI Forex john 15:29 GMT October 31, 2014
eurusd

Yes. I would guess their major sales would probably come from the excess EUR they have accumulated supporting the EURCHF cross at 120.00??

Tallinn viies 15:26 GMT October 31, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
GVI Forex john 15:20 GMT - as I understand people are afraid that if they need to buy gold then they need to sell euro.

GVI Forex john 15:20 GMT October 31, 2014
Referendum Could Force Central Bank to Buy Gold and Never Sell
Reply   
National referendum on November 30

"...a ruling in favor of the motion would force the Swiss National Bank to hold some 20% of its about $547 billion assets in the precious metal, returning to the weighting it last held in gold in 2008."

Markets Nervous Ahead of Swiss Gold Vote

Mtl JP 15:09 GMT October 31, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

short-term , if you want to go long euro, wait for >1.2535+

GVI Forex john 15:06 GMT October 31, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD last ~1.2505

S1 1.2561 broken
S2 1.2509 clearly breached but currently in play
S3 1.2470 holding (LOD 1.2486)

Let's see what happens with S3 thats the 5% trade. I don't know what's going to happen but I exclude nothing.



The key play for the first part of the new week will be the set-uo fir the ECB on Thursday. Will Super-Mario capitulate next? My guess is that many will want to be short EURUSD in the lead up into the meeting. Sometimes you can position for the ANTICIPATION rather than the actual event.

Thoughts?

london red 14:46 GMT October 31, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

yen.might stall at 62/68. anything abv 80 targets 114.66

GVI Forex john 14:19 GMT October 31, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

10-yr 2.328% +0.9
SP +19

GVI Forex john 14:01 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

University of Michigan Sentiment Survey. Final data revised up from strong preliminary.





GVI Forex john 13:55 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

University of Michigan Sentiment Index Final October 2014




ALERT
86.9 vs. 86.4 exp. vs. 86.4 preliminary


RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex 13:54 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Clearly Chicago PMI outperformed

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Chicago PMI September 2014




ALERT
66.2 vs. 59.5 exp. vs. 60.5 prev.

RELEASE: Chicago PMI



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex 13:44 GMT October 31, 2014
Chicago PMI
Reply   
Said to be above consensus - it gets released to subscribers early

dc CB 13:42 GMT October 31, 2014
HALLOWEEN

Nikkei futures halted limit up

CME tweet

jkt abel 13:30 GMT October 31, 2014
buy usdjpy
Reply   
so euro below 1.25 so forget about 105-110 usdjpy, 110-120 welcome

london red 13:19 GMT October 31, 2014
USDCAD

cad can go a long way. res 93 1315. hope for pullbacks there if not yet long. support 43. but i doubt there will be many pullbacks today. plenty of short calls throughout the week so theyll be buying every dip however small. absolutely no reason to be long cad.

GVI Forex 13:14 GMT October 31, 2014
USDCAD
Reply   
Oil down => CAD finally paid notice

london red 13:14 GMT October 31, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

treasuries slightly left behind. dec 10 needs to move below 126.16 to give buck a further boost and i suspect euro will at least test the figure. said to be some month end buying might surface prior to the fix but barrier under pressure no doubt about it.

NY JM 13:12 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

I call this using crosses to trade spot 101:

What was holding up the other currencies was offsets from JPY crosses. When the JIY crosses paused, other currencies lost their bids.

GVI Forex john 13:05 GMT October 31, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

10-yr 2.344% +2.5
SP +22

london red 12:42 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

euro. sup 47, below there risk to 15/00
cad. first support 38/43. if stays abv there can move much higher. watch oil.

dc CB 12:40 GMT October 31, 2014
HALLOWEEN

I always thought that Gammy would make this run happen, but maybe she came to the party dressed as KURODA

emni new high

GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS


Canada: GDP August 2014





ALERT
m/m -0.10% vs.0.00% exp. vs. 0.00% prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 12:30 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Personal Income/PCE Deflator September 2014




ALERT
Personal Income +0.20% v +0.30% exp v +0.20% pre
PCE Defl +1.40% vs. +1.50% exp. vs. +1.50% prev.


RELEASE: Personal Income



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Amman wfakhoury 11:55 GMT October 31, 2014
AUDUSD 0.8880 confirmed
Reply   


Amman wfakhoury 19:14 GMT October 29, 2014
AUDUSD 0.8888 confirmed : Reply
AUDUSD 0.8888 confirmed will be reached..starting and return level 0.8800 and decline below it will return to it.

___________________________
Check how many time price returned to 0.8800

jkt abel 11:34 GMT October 31, 2014
yen

shanghai bc, if you are around, usdjpy is now above 110 does that mean euro will go below 1.25 soon also?

london red 11:24 GMT October 31, 2014
yen

my thoughts are for intraday. maybe some sideways trade between 11128/67 if supports get done. for now its strongly bid and the first support at 67 has yielded a reasonable bounce, lets see if they can move it thru the trendline or if they flip it back lower. if they can break higher youve got a trade to hold onto, if not your rushing to locking in profit.
as for 110 if we see that today then we've got a top and theres nothing to warrant that. market never reverses a move like this morning to go back up again. as for buying the prev high its a good strat only theres going to plenty of folk jumping in earlier, so not sure we'll see that level until the dusts settles and even then its going to need some bad news from either the US or some kind of skirmish/ebola.

jkt abel 11:00 GMT October 31, 2014
yen

red, what sort of consolidation you think? 110-112?

london red 10:57 GMT October 31, 2014
yen
Reply   
daily trendline at 111.82 done just enough to hamper. support 67 and 50. if below there period of consolidation.

manila tom 10:28 GMT October 31, 2014
Where's Ginko?

where is Soros now? reversing his negative view on stocks?

manila tom 10:25 GMT October 31, 2014
Where's Ginko?

Buy USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

so usdjpy heading to 120 with 110 being support?

GVI Forex Blog 10:23 GMT October 31, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Policy divergence among the G3 central banks has kept the USD on a firm tone. The surprise additional easing from the BOJ sent the USD/JPY above the 111.50 for a 7-year high. The BoJ shocked markets with expansion in annual asset purchases from ¥50B to ¥80B coupled with tripling in its purchases of exchanged-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (REITs).

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Monetary policy divergence intensifies as BOJ eases further

GVI Forex john 10:04 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

EZ headline flash HICP (CPI) higher as expected. Core falls. Well below ECB"just below 2.0%" target.


HK [email protected] 10:02 GMT October 31, 2014
Breaking Bad


...........................................................................................
HK [email protected] 15:40 GMT 10/30/2014


Silver will most-probably hit 16.0, which may provide a terra firma.
..........................................................................................

So now it is suggested to watch this level for some recoil(if any) side by side with gold at 1160/65 area.

GVI Forex john 10:00 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

EZ Unemployment September 2014





ALERT
11.50% vs. 11.50% exp. vs. 11.50% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 10:00 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

flash HICP (CPI) October 2014





ALERT
Headline
yy: +0.40% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.
CORE
yy: +0.70% vs. vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 09:56 GMT October 31, 2014
hicp
Reply   
market is expecting a weaker than f/c 0.4 after lower than f/c from germany and italy. so a 0.4 print may see a relief rally. think we need to see 0.2 or lower to sustain a run at 1.25. so far bonds havent moved lower, so dollar struggling to hold onto gains vs euro. hicp should free up the market a bit more and the move post the flash reaction will be the key in the short term trend.
sup 15/00 47, res 71 2614

GVI Forex Blog 09:38 GMT October 31, 2014
BOJ Shocks Markets With Policy Easing. JPY Broadly Weaker. German Retail Sales Miss. Active Calendar
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ- HICP, Unemployment, CA- GDP, US- Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, University of Mich

Today sees Eurozone flash HICP, U.S. Personal Income data and the final October University of Michigan Survey. Over the weekend, North American clocks are turned back one hour. The BOJ surprised the markets by openly admitting that its policies have not been working and announcing a significant increase in policy ease. The JPY is sharply weaker.

BOJ Shocks Markets With Policy Easing. JPY Broadly Weaker. German Retail Sales Miss. Active Calendar

Hong Kong AceTrader 09:28 GMT October 31, 2014
AceTrader Oct 31: DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major - USD/JPY
Reply   

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK USD/JPY - 111.30

Update Time: 31 Oct 2014 08:19 GMT

Dollar's intra-day rally above October's peak at 110.09 to a fresh near 7-year high of 111.53 in European morning after BoJ's surprise easing confirms long-term uptrend has resumed and further gain to projected obj. at 111.98 is likely after consolidation, however, o/bot condition should prevent sharp move beyond there today and risk has increased for a much-needed retreat later.

On the downside, only a daily close below 110.09 (previous resistance) would signal a top has been made and yield correction towards 109.47.

GVI Forex john 09:26 GMT October 31, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Reply   

09:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Early in Europe, markets are in a MIXED RISK posture following an unexpected easing of monetary policy by he Bank of Japan. The JPY is sharply weaker on the news.  Markets are also digesting weaker than expected German retail sales data. In the Far East, equities ended higher.  European bourses are trading higher as well. U.S. share futures are up at this hour.

U.S. 10-yr yields are steady. 10-yr bund yields are down sharply and gilts yields are easier. Peripheral European bond yields are mixed.




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


GVI Forex 09:10 GMT October 31, 2014
$yen

Here's the full story for the BoJ surprise

(Reuters) - The Bank of Japan surprised global financial markets on Friday by expanding its massive stimulus spending in a stark admission that economic growth and inflation have not picked up as much as expected after a sales tax hike in April.

BOJ shocks markets with more easing as inflation slows

GVI Forex john 09:03 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

EARLIER... Japanese CPI. The impact of the Sales tax increase still in these data.




GVI Forex john 08:49 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

EARLIER: German Retail Sales data mo/mo much weaker than expected.



GVI Forex john 08:32 GMT October 31, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

September 2014 German Real Retail Sales




Earlier NEWS Release

mm: -3.20% vs. -0.90% exp. vs. +3.50% (r) prev.
yy: +2.30% vs. +1.20% exp. vs. +0.10% prev (r).


TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 07:06 GMT October 31, 2014
HALLOWEEN
Reply   
Markets are getting disorderly . To the upside no problem,
but disorderly anyway .

Paris ib 06:52 GMT October 31, 2014
Where's Ginko?

tokyo ginko 17:32 GMT October 30, 2014
Where's Ginko?: Reply
Thanks ib.

Wouldnt stay short going into boj's statement ..which could send flying to 113.00/20.

GT all.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Meanwhile we had the guys over at ZeroHedge (and others) suggesting the BoJ statement was no big deal. :-)

gc sf 06:50 GMT October 31, 2014
property

it had the right pattern for a bullish day - but certainly was not expecting 111 lol

I know it is bid now but even Japanese hate to buy highs -- so if we see a few comments then we can see back down to 110.40 just as fast.

Provo John 06:38 GMT October 31, 2014
property

That is the truth! I had taken a $jpy long @109.20 not long after your comments and went about other business not really to concerned about it. I was watching a program with my daughter when I saw it pop.
110.64 I thought was going to tougher though. Time to just enjoy the ride.

I got whipped around earlier in the US session on gbp/$ however it finally worked out and I will close my shorts here.

Thank you for heads up.

GVI Forex Blog 06:36 GMT October 31, 2014 Reply   
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 PPI Q/Q: 0.2% V -0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: 1.2% V 2.3% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.5% (3-month high) V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 5.4% V 5.3%E - (JP) JAPAN SEPT OVERALL HOUSEH

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Japan CPI slows further ahead of BOJ growth projections and GPIF allocation u - Source TradeTheNews.com

gc sf 06:30 GMT October 31, 2014
property

I take my dog for a walk along the beach on GC -- and there will be large family groups of Chinese 10-15 walking as well enjoying the view .. this is definately where the demand is from atm.

general area is a little down - but cruise ship terminal / commonwealth games will be a larger boost.

John - when $yen gets busy like that - hard to sit down and type -- one minute it was 109.38 - next it wasn't lol.

Syd 06:26 GMT October 31, 2014
property
Reply   
Sydney ACC have a friend on the GC Estate agent , said that the Chinese dont ask the price, only when they can collect the keys ahahah - seems the market there picking up a bit. wonder what will happen if that Cruise Terminal gets approval, the Qld Government are keen !! another point if the Aud does drop considerably, will make the property market even cheaper for overseas investors - food for thought !!

Syd 06:15 GMT October 31, 2014
Aussie property
Reply   
Sydney ACC Hi
just noticed this article http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/australia-to-be-worlds-largest-lng-exporter-hsbc/story-e6frg9df-1227108582779
totally agree with your views on the property market , and as you say its hard to know whats happening a week ahead.
I have heard the Aud could go down as far as .60c but personally cant see it .. think a lot depends on the speed of the hikes by the Fed will be the game changer - agree with you the range for now 87 -89 but would be a seller in the mid 90's :-) nice to hear from you

Sydney ACC 06:01 GMT October 31, 2014
Aussie property

Michael Pascoe wrote a good article a couple of weeks ago about the property market. He wrote that Australia does not have a single property market it has tens, hundreds even thousands of property markets. He also stated tat the GC goes through a boom and crash every decade. Only a couple of years ago I believe up there it was difficult to find a buyer. I was up there in July over school holidays, things seemed to be much better.

I agree with you the capital inflow sustaining AUD at these levels is more than that going into housing.

Personally I think the best bet at the moment is Qantas its got all the elements in the right combination. It will benefit from a lower Aussie, cheaper oil and the fight with Virgin has ceased so it is now making money. Its appreciated 20% this week.

Provo John 04:54 GMT October 31, 2014
$yen

Finally my news services catches up. BOJ targets 80tln yen increase in monetary base.

Provo John 04:51 GMT October 31, 2014
$yen

anyone care to share what hit the fan?

gc sf 04:12 GMT October 31, 2014
$yen

18-43 range so far

I guess people were waiting on this BOJ stuff to finish off the distribution normally you don't have to wait that long .. anyway see how it unfolds as this comes out.

gc sf 04:07 GMT October 31, 2014
Aussie property

in Sydney it depends where you live .. just near where I had been living the entry level houses have risen this year from 1.2 mio to 1.6 mio and the longest a place is on the market is 7 days.

here on GC - a lot of offshore people are buying but the local market is pretty slow.

Also I get the impression that there is still people moving to Sydney so no matter what there is an underlying demand at some natural level.

I don't think property can be the only thing holding up the AUD @8700
.. really how much is coming in for that reason 1 bio tops ? that is about 1 cent worth.... it has to be something more along the lines of reserve types buying -- as it just seems sustained.

You mentioned 87-89 range honestly given just a couple of months to go - I'm not sure you can expect anything more than that.

Sydney ACC 03:43 GMT October 31, 2014
Aussie property

From what I've read in the last couple of weeks the Sydney market has gone off the boil. I suppose its a combination of things - sellers asking too high a price, or buyers - reluctant to pay what's being asked. There's a lovely house in our neighbourhood auctioned tomorrow I might go along and see what transpires, I also know the agent so will get a better idea from him.

As far as AUD is concerned there aren't many positives in my mind. Iron ore and coal are well known negatives. I saw a prediction iron ore will fall to USD 70 per tonne. But no one has written anything I've seen about gas exports. The price has fallen in line with oil prices and the producers need a much lower AUD as their cost base is so high.

It also seems the market traders and economists are living on different planets - maybe Venus and Mars. Well the traders have factored in a two-thirds chance of a rate cut while the analysts are calling for an increase. While these guys keep calling for an increase at the same time they keep pushing out the date. CBA I believe now seeing it in November next year, Give me a break its difficult enough to try and predict whats going to happen in five minutes never mind 12 months. Nevertheless if the RBA does backtrack and introduce new restrictions such as LVR changes on residential mortgages that eliminates the main support for the cash rate remaining where it is. On that note I saw where a Kiwi analyst did call that RBA will cut the cash rate by 50 basis points. GS still maintain there will be a cut, but they've been saying that for months.

So where does that leave Aussie probably ranging for the remainder of the year between 87 cents and 89 cents given what's happened so far. What's your prediction?

GVI Forex Blog 03:36 GMT October 31, 2014 Reply   
Better than expected US Q3 GDP (3.5%) and the much bigger contribution of government

Morning Briefing : 31-Oct-2014 -0336 GMT

Syd 03:24 GMT October 31, 2014
Aussie property
Reply   
Sydney ACC thats very interesting , do you see the lower aud helping the property market ?

Sydney ACC 02:42 GMT October 31, 2014
EUR + GBP

When the time comes for these offshore punters to sell their Australian properties they will be required to sell it to locals. I'd say many of these foreigners have overlooked this requirement. Be interesting if for one reason or another they turn out to be forced sellers en masse.

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:42 GMT October 31, 2014
AceTrader Oct 31: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 Oct 2014 00:08GMT

USD/JPY - .......Latest news: 'Japan government to approve GPIF reallocation on Friday, raising Japan equity target to 25% from the current target of 12%, two government sources said.'
Japan's economy minister Amari said that :
"Abe's cabinet is ready to take steps as needed, when asked about chance of compiling stimulus measures;
will consult with Abe whether stimulus package is needed, after scrutinising Jul-Sep data;
no decision yet on whether to complete stimulus package, also on size of any package."

Last night U.S. dollar rose to a fresh 3-1/2 week high of 109.36 versus the Japanese yen on renewed risk appetites due to the rally in Nikkei-225 index futures n U.S. stock markets.
Dow Jones index now rose by 221 point or 1.3% to 17196. Bids was located at 109.20-10 and more at 109.00. On the upside, some offers were tipped at 109.40 and 109.60.

Friday will see the release of Japan's all household spending, CPI and unemployment, GfK consumer confidence, Australia's PPI, Bank of Japan monetary statement, construction orders, housing starts, BOJ press conference, BOJ outlook report, EU inflation and unemployment, U.S. PCE price index, personal real consumption and income, core PCE price index, Canada's GDP and U.S. University of Michigan sentiment.

shanghai bc 01:25 GMT October 31, 2014
EUR + GBP


Relatively strong Aud has the constant Asian demand flow issue..Not very large market but India,China,Japan,Korea all want to invest there..And a very favourite place for second home for millions of nouveau riche from those places..Same as hot London property market..Some folks are just lucky or unlucky to be in the right place..

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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