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Forex Forum Archive for 11/03/2014

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USA ZEUS 23:58 GMT November 3, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

Looks like a risk-on day. Not good for USD in USD/JPY EUR/USD GBP/USD and AUD/USD.

Livingston nh 23:49 GMT November 3, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

AUD/NZD 1.11 would be in range for a quick reaction trade?? AUD/USD 83 handle?

Don't think jawbones work in this environment

gc sd 23:43 GMT November 3, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

I know Currency Forecasting is difficult at best because you never are 100% sure which factors they will respond too and which factors the market will ignore.

But if I did a test - I feel pretty comfortable saying that AUD forecasting would be among the most unreliable.

gc sf 23:39 GMT November 3, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

if RBA Cut then AUDNZD would move lower by 250 points

but RBA isn't likely to cut - they are more likely to Hike .. this doesn't mean AUD would be a BUY ... as we have alot of home grown issues due to the way prior growth was generated.

it was just a couple of days ago we were saying how we didn't expect AUD to move outside of 87-89 and here we are a couple of events later right at the lows ... the FX market sure is fickle at times.

GVI Forex john 23:22 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



November 3, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, November 4. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- Retail Sales, Trade, RBA, JP- PMI, GB- Construction PMI, EZ- PPI, CA- Trade, US- House/Senate Elections, Trade, Factory Orders

  • Far East: JP-PMI, AU- Retail Sales, Trade, RBA.
  • Europe: GB- Construction PMI, EZ- PPI.
  • North America: CA- Trade, US- House/Senate Elections, Trade, Factory Orders, API Energy.


Livingston nh 23:16 GMT November 3, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

sf - what effect on NZD of RBA cut?

Livingston nh 23:09 GMT November 3, 2014
Currency Wars: Don't Fight the Central Banks

Jay - You've obviously shed the bad influences

gc sf 22:58 GMT November 3, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

GBPNZD already dropped almost 100 points since earlier -- we see this same pattern very often ... NZD rarely moves in same direction 2 days in a row... in its crosses anyway.

USA ZEUS 22:50 GMT November 3, 2014
USD/JPY

USA ZEUS 14:14 GMT December 20, 2013
Will consider taking some USD/JPY gains at 110, once the position is up 24 figures (2400 pips).
_____________________________________________________
More like 28 figures at 113.83

Cheers!

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:30 GMT November 3, 2014
Currency Wars: Don't Fight the Central Banks

nh I don't care about the outcome but the green light it is currently sending.

GVI Forex john 21:52 GMT November 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


USD & EUR Pivots. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





GVI Forex john 21:44 GMT November 3, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Closing levels...


Livingston nh 21:23 GMT November 3, 2014
Currency Wars: Don't Fight the Central Banks

haaha - So Jay hmmm, - that explains a lot and what would your favored model propose the ultimate outcome of all this QE to be??

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 21:18 GMT November 3, 2014
Currency Wars: Don't Fight the Central Banks
Reply   

This is my third article on this topic and I am posting it to emphasize the importance of not fighting central banks in the current environment. Any way you look at it we are in extraordinary times that would have classic economists rolling in their graves at the sight of central banks ramping up the printing press. I was an economics major in college and I would have been tossed out of class if I suggested printing money would become mainstream monetary policy. The latest central bank to jump in with both feet is the Bank of Japan, which sent a clear signal to sell the JPY.

Currency Wars: Don't Fight the Central Banks

Livingston nh 21:18 GMT November 3, 2014
Lame Ducks
Reply   
One of the critical features of the end of 2 term presidents is how much the Pres is willing to compromise - he doesn't need his BASE anymore - Pres Reagan was able to deal with the Soviets w/o concern for the BASE, Clinton was unconcerned in his last two years for the Left wing // Legacy becomes more important than re-election -- more can be done

Livingston nh 21:12 GMT November 3, 2014
PMI Data Generally Better. JPY Weakens Further Post-BOJ. Active Tuesday Calendar

The best thing for Republicans would be McConnell loss in KY - new majority leader w/o old animosities - AND blow away the super majority rule favor of just 51 votes (a risk but going into 2016 quite worthwhile) -- of course, both parties are hypocrites but once you have the upper hand you gotta kick the other side

GVI Forex john 21:06 GMT November 3, 2014
PMI Data Generally Better. JPY Weakens Further Post-BOJ. Active Tuesday Calendar

nh- I don't think it matters who wins Tuesday. I would be surprised if we do mot seen more gridlock.

If they lose the Senate, Democrats will not want to let the Republicans do well in 2016. If the Democrats win, the Republicans will not want to help the Dems. Obama has never wanted to work with the opposition.

GVI Forex john 20:57 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
TUESDAY
US National Elections Key to U.S. governance
10:30 A AU Retail Sales domestic demand
01:30 A AU Trade extremal accounts
04:30 A AU Australia Reserve Bank no change seen
09:28 A GB Construction PMI
13:30 A US Trade   impacts GDP
14:30 A CA Trade C$bn external accounts
15:00 A US Factory Orders industrial demand
WEDNESDAY
00:50  JP BOJ Minutes detail on BOJ decision
08:50  FR SVC PMI final closely followed survey
08:55  DE SVC PMI final closely followed survey
08:58  EZ SVC PMI final closely followed survey
09:28  GB SVC PMI closely followed survey
13:15  US ADP Jobs NFP predictor
14:45  US Markit SVC PMI closely followed survey
15:00  US ISM SVC PMI closely followed survey
15:30 US EIA Crude impacts Oil prices
THURSDAY
01:30 AU % Jobless employment data
09:30 GB Ind/Mfg Output production
11:00 GB Bank of England no changes seen
12:45  EZ Europe Cntl Bank key decision
13:30 EZ ECB Webcast press conference
13:30  US Productivity key to growth
13:30  US Initial Claims weekly data
15:00 CA Ivey PMI closely followed survey
FRIDAY
09:15  CH CPI mm SNB targets inflation
09:30 GB Trade External accounts
13:30 CA Jobless Key growth measure
13:30 US Jobless Top U.s. indicator
15:15  FRB Yellen Paris key speech
 

gc sf 20:56 GMT November 3, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

I am actually not Swiss Frank .. I'm just a guy sitting on the Gold Coast trading my own account like most people here.

Any levels I post are actual levels where my system has generated a trade signal and opened a trade - and any thoughts are just me looking at my book and observations from past experience.... so take them for what they are : Free ! LOL.

All the best.

GVI Forex 20:48 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Australia Tuesday

Event risk today: The Australian calendar is action packed today – retail sales, trade balance, and then the RBA meeting (followed by the Melbourne Cup). We are not expecting any significant shifts from the RBA today. Overnight there’s Eurozone PPI, US factory orders, and a dairy auction.

Westpac NZ

Mtl JP 20:42 GMT November 3, 2014
PMI Data Generally Better. JPY Weakens Further Post-BOJ. Active Tuesday Calendar

nh thx re "see a higher interest rates on WEDS" <- I am selling Gold
BUT if it suddenly goes sub 1000 I ll be buying

Provo John 20:40 GMT November 3, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

I was referring to gbp/nzd

Provo John 20:39 GMT November 3, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

Frank, that was a great call! You are on a roll.

GVI Forex john 20:39 GMT November 3, 2014
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Livingston nh 19:36 GMT November 3, 2014
If election goes as it looks now (some Repub pickups in Senate) - we could see a higher interest rates on WEDS - Yellen does not want any interference (i.e., Taylor rule, fixed rule based monetary policy) from Congress but the next Congress won't be sympathetic to that position // ironic that Republican administration set the stage for Fed expansion and is now beginning to realize panic is not usually conducive to quality decision making

GVI Forex Blog 19:30 GMT November 3, 2014
PMI Data Generally Better. JPY Weakens Further Post-BOJ. Active Tuesday Calendar
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Retail Sales, Trade, RBA, JP- PMI, GB- Construction PMI, EZ- PPI, CA- Trade, US- House & Senate Elections, Trade, Factory Orders

Tuesday features major U.S. elections for the Senate and House of Representatives. A change in the balance of power in the Senate to the Republicans is expected. Also, a policy decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia is awaited along with the U.K. Construction PMI.

PMI Data Generally Better. JPY Weakens Further Post-BOJ. Active Tuesday Calendar

Livingston nh 19:25 GMT November 3, 2014
USD/CAD
Reply   
If USD/CAD can close at this level it may be moving into the next leg carrying into 1.20+

Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 18:56 GMT November 3, 2014
euro

moving stop on 2500 sh to BE..

gl

gc sf 18:50 GMT November 3, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

GBPNZD

this trade is now +165/+170 .. suggest to close out now - as have seen this before ... one day allows it to climb because GBP stays bid + NZD weakens - but then the next GBP catches up and NZD doesn't move as much.

No thoughts on anything else - have had alot of system trades but they have been trading the small ranges .. and ntg directional enough to mention at this point.

Jeddah abb 17:07 GMT November 3, 2014
eur/try
Reply   
Sell eur/try 2.795 for target 2.70...

GVI Forex Blog 17:00 GMT November 3, 2014 Reply   
November 3, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, November 4. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- Retail Sales, Trade, RBA, JP- PMI, GB- Construction PMI, EZ- PPI, CA- Trade, US- House/Senate Elections, Trade, Factory Orders

GVI Forex Data Outlook for Nvember 4, 2014

GVI Forex john 16:58 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



November 3, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, November 4. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: AU- Retail Sales, Trade, RBA, JP- PMI, GB- Construction PMI, EZ- PPI, CA- Trade, US- House/Senate Elections, Trade, Factory Orders

  • Far East: JP-PMI, AU- Retail Sales, Trade, RBA.
  • Europe: GB- Construction PMI, EZ- PPI.
  • North America: CA- Trade, US- House/Senate Elections, Trade, Factory Orders, API Energy.


GVI Forex john 16:47 GMT November 3, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

Im not an equity guy, but I doubt finally moving off zero will matter much. I hear stock markets care more about the economy than the level of interest rates.

GVI Forex john 16:41 GMT November 3, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off


16:40 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Late in European trading hours, markets are in a mixed RISK-OFF posture as markets consolidated after the surprise policy easing by the Bank of Japan of Friday. The JPY has weakened further today. BOJ actions are expected to intensify the pressure on the ECB to ease on ac Thursday. In the Far East, equities ended mixed. Japan was closed  European bourses are ending lower. U.S. shares are mixed at this hour.

U.S. 10-yr yields are higher. 10-yr bund and gilt yields are up. Peripheral European bond yields are higher. Political instability continues to see higher Greek yields




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


Mtl JP 16:21 GMT November 3, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

john typically stocks do not like higher cost of money, everything else being equal

Mtl JP 16:18 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

114 is probably some resistance

jkt abel 15:50 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

here we go 114, no problem :)
tomorrow surely 115

GVI Forex john 15:42 GMT November 3, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

10-yr 2.364% +3.4bp

USD Positive

london red 15:19 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

JP, i hve 80.14 at 11375 on the daily 14. i dont tend to pay to much attention to it unless its in a trading note or something. often the rsi can turn while the underlying prices keeps moving in the same direction it was going.

Mtl JP 15:16 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

on the other hand , "no sign of inflation with prices paid benign" is not likely to please the 2% inflation pursuit-tionists gang at the CB

london red 15:13 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

v good set of numbers from ism. no sign of inflation with prices paid benign.

GVI Forex john 15:06 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

ISM Mfg better than expected. Final Markit PMI misses.

GVI Forex john 15:06 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

ISM Mfg better than expected. Final Markit PMI misses.

Sanibel Is. Fl Sir Ignore 15:03 GMT November 3, 2014
euro
Reply   
short euro/usd 2500 with 2524 stop and 2450 its tp..
and prospects lower seem probable

ma's stocks chart pattern trend all factors…

not much to wager

Mtl JP 15:01 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

what is your RSI reading on the daily usdyen ?

GVI Forex john 15:00 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Construction Spending September 2014




ALERT
-0.40% vs. +0.70% exp. vs. -0.80% (-0.50%) prev. rev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 15:00 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI October 2014




News ALERT

59.0 vs. 56.4 exp. vs. 56.6 prev.
RELEASE: ISM Manufacturing PMI


TTN: Live News Special Offer

jkt abel 14:49 GMT November 3, 2014
ism

agree red, i have placed another adder 113.45 for short term play, maybe hard to get there either
go straight to 114 by close today perhaps

GVI Forex john 14:45 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Markit FINAL Manufacturing PMI October 2014




ALERT
55.9 vs. 56.2 exp. vs. 56.2 prelim

Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 14:43 GMT November 3, 2014
ism
Reply   
markit then ism. ism normally has a summer lull. we didnt get this due to the q1 lull. so its possible we get a later than usual lull. im not forecasting it, but its possible and thats its just the lull that would have take place earlier, rather than the start of a downtrend. so there might be a buying op for usdjpy. i can see 113 support but not sure we get a gift like that, rather 40/60 might be as good as it gets.

GVI Forex john 14:35 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Canadian PMIs (Ivey and RBC-Markit). Markit mfg PMI stronger.


GVI Forex john 14:30 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Canada Markit PMI October 2014





ALERT
55.3 vs. n/a exp. vs. 53.5 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

jkt abel 14:18 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

but under what scenario will usd and jpy die at the same time?
ebola? LOL

Mtl JP 14:16 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

c link in PAR 09:00 post

jkt abel 14:14 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

JP, i thought this is the decade of usd?

Mtl JP 14:09 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

what sort of dip can one try to enter:
112.40/30
-
the gap, I submit, will not close only when the dollar and the yen die at the same time.

jkt abel 14:09 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

resurrection of jpy carry trade?

jkt abel 14:02 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

problem now is what sort of dip can one try to enter if already left out? this is not a simple market to trade eventhough the trend is clear

tokyo ginko 14:02 GMT November 3, 2014
Nikkei
Reply   
close out nk 17235
gt all!

jkt abel 14:00 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

agree completely red, forget about the gap, very unlikely to be filled
specs were left out so we can have cruise control to go up further

london red 13:53 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

JP, not much SK or anyone else can do esp since US have had to accept the move. but think 120 is the new 150. smaller moves in just abut all markets have bigger effects these days, so a move to 120 will have a similar effect that 150 did a 15 years ago. of course it will end in tears for some, as inevitably when the move ends someone will be left holding the parcel, but for now the move has some way to go. for today, it they get to 114.20 they may just take some profit there but nothing more than that. you have to buy the dips. fwiw there has never been a month in 30 years where the gap hasnt been filled - to fill it we need to fall to 112.47. given the policy change, this is unlikely despite the month being young. and when gaps arent filled, you tend to get a long candle in the direction of the breakout.

jkt abel 13:45 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

and the Chinese? they dont complain about it either?

Mtl JP 13:27 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

I want to see the S-Koreans freak out.
Like they are known to have done in the past on occasion

GVI Forex john 13:22 GMT November 3, 2014
AUD

I think RBA holds steady, but they usually talk the AUD down.

Livingston nh 13:19 GMT November 3, 2014
AUD
Reply   
Is the RBA likely to join the easing parade? seems to me a rate cut should have been implemented some months ago with so much cushion in the current rate

AUD/USD, AUD/JPY weaker

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:15 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

And Fed is doing its part. FX trends are strongest when there is economic/monetary policy divergence.

Don't believe those who say fundamentals don't matter.

GVI Forex john 13:03 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

U.S. is out to lunch. They don't care about anything!

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:49 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

An US is not objecting...

jkt abel 12:47 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

why not? currency war, everybody loves their currencies to be equal to toilet paper

GVI Forex john 12:45 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

I don't think the BOJ will be standing in the way of additional JPY weakness. Just my opinion.

jkt abel 12:07 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

chart projection says usdjpy 114.70 next

GVI Forex john 11:56 GMT November 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Pivot Point Support and Resistance are a function of the previous day ranges, and because of this, it is constantly adjusting to to the current volatility of the markets. Thus USDJPY has a very wide range for Support & Resistance today.

Dillon Al on GVI Forex gave me the very useful advice recently that when the ranges get too wide to cut them in half. That works for me!

GVI Forex Blog 11:45 GMT November 3, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The USD was in consolidation mode following last week's spat of encouraging global data and Japan's unexpected expansion in its QQE program. The greenback did hit fresh trend highs during the Asian session with dealers citing continued favorable yield differentials.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Markets consolidate after last's week euphoria following BOJ easing; Major EMU PMI Manufacturing were mixed

GVI Forex john 11:44 GMT November 3, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


USD & EUR Pivots. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System




jkt abel 11:23 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY

woohoo, by end of the month usdjpy 120? :)

GVI Forex Blog 10:29 GMT November 3, 2014
Final October Manufacturing PMI Data Mostly Have Had a Mildly Better Tone
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CA- PMI, US- PMI's

Monday has started off with the release of Manufacturing PMIs from a slew of economies. So far data have had a mildly positive bias. Monday was also a holiday in Japan. Tuesday features a policy decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the U.K. Construction PMI.

Final October Manufacturing PMI Data Mostly Have Had a Mildly Better Tone

London Chris 10:24 GMT November 3, 2014
JPY
Reply   
It looks like GBPJPY lis behind tne USDJPY move above 113

First GBPUSD moved and them USDJPY

There was some EURJPY going on too

GVI Forex john 10:10 GMT November 3, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply   

10:15 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Late in Europe, markets are in a mixed RISK-OFF posture as markets consolidate after the surprise policy easing by the Bank of Japan of Friday. It is expected to intensify the pressure on the ECB to take action this Thursday. In the Far East, equities ended mixed. Japan was closed for a holiday  European bourses are trading lower. U.S. share futures are lower at this hour.

U.S. 10-yr yields are easier. 10-yr bund and gilt yields are lower. Peripheral European bond yields are mixed. Political instability continues to see higher Greek yields




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

GVI Forex john 09:34 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.K. Manufacturing PMI improves from depressed levels.

GVI Forex john 09:31 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Manufacturing PMI October 2014




-- NEWS ALERT --

53.2 vs. 51.4 exp. vs. 51.6 (r 51.5) prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 09:29 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS


EARLIER: Swiss PMI stronger

GVI Forex john 09:25 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Swiss PMI September 2014





Earlier data

55.3 vs. 51.3 exp. vs. 50.4 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 09:09 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

EZ, GE and FR final Mfg PMIs. Mixed revisions from flash, better pattern overall. ECB Thursday.


perth wtr 09:05 GMT November 3, 2014
sell euro

followed you tom, short euro 1.2498 intraday, stop above 1.2540, adding near 1.2520

manila tom 09:03 GMT November 3, 2014
sell euro
Reply   
sold 1.2499, sstop 1.2529, target open

GVI Forex john 09:00 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

EZ- Final MFG PMI October 2014





ALERT

EZ- Final MFG PMI
50.6 vs. 50.7 exp. vs. 50.7 (flash)
France
48.5 vs. 47.3 exp. vs. 47.3 (flash)
Germany
51.4 vs. 51.8 exp. vs. 51.8 (flash)


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 09:00 GMT November 3, 2014
The FED isnt stopping QE
Reply   
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-02/newsflash-fed-isnt-stopping-qe

GVI Forex john 08:59 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

October China final HSBC PMI





Earlier

HSBC: 50.4 vs. 50.4 exp. vs. 50.4 flash


TTN: Live News Special Offer




Earlier: HSBC final PMI unchanged from flash estimate...


GVI Forex john 08:59 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

October China final HSBC PMI





Earlier

HSBC: 50.4 vs. 50.4 exp. vs. 50.4 flash


TTN: Live News Special Offer




Earlier: HSBC final PMI unchanged from flash estimate...


GVI Forex Blog 05:57 GMT November 3, 2014 Reply   
(CN) CHINA OCT NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.8 V 54.0 PRIOR (9-month low; 2nd decline) - (CN) CHINA OFFICIAL OCT MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.8 V 51.2E (5-MONTH LOW; 3rd decline) - (CN) CHINA OCT FINAL HSBC MANU

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China official PMIs slow further; AUD hits new lows on sliding building permits - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 04:07 GMT November 3, 2014 Reply   
Global equity markets surged after the announcements of Japanese stimulus and better than

Morning Briefing : 03-Nov-2014 -0406 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 03:00 GMT November 3, 2014
AceTrader Nov 3: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

03 Nov 2014 02:39GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr pares initial gain after rising to a fresh near 7-year peak of 113.00/01. The euphoria of broad-based yen-selling continued at Monday's open after Friday's close near the day's high of 112.48 together with the closing of the Dow & S&P 500 at their records highs (Nikkei futures were up 495 points on Fri) boosted risk sentiment even though markets are closed in Japan for Culture Day holiday.

Although dlr opened near said Friday's NY close in NZ, st specs sold the yen broadly, sending dlr to 113.00/01 in Australia, however, price eased to 112.65 on lack of follow-through buying.
Initial bids are reported at 112.50-40 with stops below there, however, more buying interest is noted above 112.00.
On the upside, offers are touted at 112.90/00 with some stops above there. As the w/end release of downbeat China official mfg PMI plus today's release of weaker-than-expected China official non-mfg PMI have not tempered risk sentiment in the yen, buy dlr on dips is the way to go.


The coming week will see the release of following economic data:

Australian building approvals, China NBS non-manufacturing PMI n HSBC manufacturing PMI, German and EU Markit manufacturing PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, U.S Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing employment index and manufacturing PMI on Monday;

Australia's trade balance and retail sales, RBA interest rate decision and statement, U.K. Halifax house price, Markit construction PMI, EU producer prices, U.S. international trade, Canada's exports, imports and trade balance, U.S. Redbook, ISM New York index, factory orders, durable goods on Tuesday;

New Zealand's HLFS unemployment rate, job growth and labour cost index, China's HSBC services PMI, Swiss CPI, German Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit services PMI, eurozone retail sales, U.S. ADP National employment, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and employment index on Wednesday;

Australia's unemployment rate and employment change, Japan's leading indicator, Swiss consumer confidence, Germany's industrial orders, U.K. industrial output and manufacturing output, BOE interest rate decision, ECB rate decision, Canada's building permits, U.S. labor costs and productivity and Canada's Ivey PMI on Thursday;

Swiss unemployment rate, Germany's imports, exports and trade balance, Swiss retail sales, U.K. goods trade balance and average earnings, Canada's unemployment and employment change, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, private payrolls, government payrolls and consumer credit on Friday.

GVI Forex 02:06 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

MNI: CHINA OCT HSBC FINAL PMI 50.4 VS FLASH 50.4; SEP 50.2

jkt abel 01:41 GMT November 3, 2014
EURUED

looks like liquidation market this week

NY JM 01:38 GMT November 3, 2014
EURUED
Reply   
Friday low was 1.2486, market sells blips as long as below it

GVI Forex 01:06 GMT November 3, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

CHINA DATA: OCT CFLP NON-MANUFACTURING PMI 53.8 VS 54.0 IN SEP

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:58 GMT November 3, 2014
November Newsletter

Suggest reading my newsletter to see key levels below EURUSD 1.25 and above USDJPY 113.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:56 GMT November 3, 2014
November Newsletter


In the November Issue

Did the Fed Give a Green Light to Buy Dollars?

Video: Forex Trading Outlook for November

November Newsletter - Thoughts from he Trading Trenches

GVI Forex Blog 00:40 GMT November 3, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Yen hits fresh seven-year low vs USD, 17-mth low on AUD

* But Aussie loses to USD after China PMI disappoints

* More Chinese data on offer before US ISM survey later

FOREX-Yen extends slide, Aussie eases on weak China PMI

gc sf 00:34 GMT November 3, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

so my post maybe bit confusing

but I would think +GBPNZD for 100-200 points with NZDUSD leading the way lower should that side of the mkt be the weaker one.

gc sf 00:29 GMT November 3, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

you just have to assume most people are going to trade with accumulation strategies and it will be bid at every support with 1st target now 115.

I thought we would see some warning signals about moving too quickly upsets the balance in markets etc -- but so far it has been fairly quiet.

as far as EUR + GBP + AUD + NZD -- they just have not found any significant selling down at these levels before .. so it may take Europe for better direction than Asia can provide.

If I had to identify 1 trade that would be the easiest to spot it would be GBPNZD.

should these other markets continue - the weakest currency should be the NZD and lead the way lower - so there maybe 100-200 pts in that before everything else follows.

 




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