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Forex Forum Archive for 11/04/2014

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GVI Forex Blog 23:42 GMT November 4, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar index falls after four straight sessions of gains

* Euro rebounds amid uncertainty about more ECB action

* Kiwi among best performers, further aided by local data

FOREX-Dollar rally pauses as euro finds some support

GVI Forex john 23:14 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



November 4, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, November 5. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- BOJ Minutes, EZ- service PMI's GB- Service PMI, US- ADP Private Payrolls, Service PMIs, Weekly Crude

  • Far East: JP- BOJ Minutes.
  • Europe: EZ- service PMI's GB- Service PMI,
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Private Payrolls, Service PMIs, Weekly Crude.


gc sf 23:07 GMT November 4, 2014
nzdjpy

funny morning isnt it - NZD broke through 3 resistances and opened up some general USD selling.. totally against what would be a more normal day for us.

tokyo ginko 22:56 GMT November 4, 2014
nzdjpy

added 88.86

tokyo ginko 22:33 GMT November 4, 2014
nzdjpy
Reply   
good morning
could not resist
sold nzdjpy 88.80
GT all

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:32 GMT November 4, 2014
My Greatest Forex Trading Story Never Told
Reply   

I have put on paper my 21 Forex Trading Tips that I (and you can) use in everyday trading. This does not mean all the trading tips can be used at once but there is enough there that you should find one (or more) to fit whatever market you are trading. One of my favorites is I Love Repeat Trades that I will illustrate in what I call My Greatest Forex Trading Story Never Told

My Greatest Forex Trading Story Never Told

GVI Forex john 21:51 GMT November 4, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

CLOSING VALUES...



GVI Forex john 21:39 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Weekly US API DatA



NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: -0.639 vs. +2.000 exp vs. +2.010 prev.
Gasoline: +0.240 vs. -0.500 exp vs. -1.210 prev.
Distillates: +0.150 vs.-2.000 exp vs. -5.300 prev.
Cap/Util: 89.2% vs. 82.30% exp vs. 86.60% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

gc sf 21:20 GMT November 4, 2014
Asia
Reply   
$YEN multiple tests down @113.20 but with no Stock Market weakness further than what we saw yesterday here we are back @64

xxx/JPY crosses are higher than Asian Close also a worry for short $YEN positions.

I personally can't sit short this market today - you have to expect at some point in our day we are going to try that 83-85 area and if it is overcome then stops probably carry us back to 114.10

sometimes in Asia instead of just doing the obvious we do nothing for 8 hours and then do all the trading in 30-45 minutes -- so that maybe some risk as well... just like we saw last Friday.

RED says this GBP number could potentially derail GBP later so one eye on that.

EUR Draghi stuff - I can see why it shot up because the market wants to see action not inaction .. but at the same time I don't think it changes the overall trend - perhaps just the levels to trade at.

NZD - all these M>A are moving lower .7780 .7808 .7830 - that is about as far as that can rise.

wish there was some low hanging fruit out there - but seems today more of a grinding type day... on back of Nikkei .. then onto the Europe Data.

nw kw 21:17 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

eur/jpy might run from soft usd .monthly hot

Livingston nh 21:01 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

If the ECB is neutralized we may have seen a hint of EU market reaction - stox down, divergence in FI (German rally Spanish down) and a bounce in EUR - BUT the FI divergence will increase as "whatever it takes" becomes meaningless and peripherals come under more pressure - so the EUR inevitably suffers

GVI Forex john 20:44 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

WEDNESDAY
00:50  JP BOJ Minutes detail on BOJ decision
08:50  FR SVC PMI final closely followed survey
08:55  DE SVC PMI final closely followed survey
08:58  EZ SVC PMI final closely followed survey
09:28  GB SVC PMI closely followed survey
13:15  US ADP Jobs NFP predictor
14:45  US Markit SVC PMI closely followed survey
15:00  US ISM SVC PMI closely followed survey
15:30 US EIA Crude impacts Oil prices
THURSDAY
01:30 AU Jobless employment data
09:30 GB Ind/Mfg Output production
11:00 GB Bank of England no changes seen
12:45  EZ Europe Cntl Bank key decision
13:30 EZ ECB Webcast press conference
13:30  US Productivity key to growth
13:30  US Initial Claims weekly data
15:00 CA Ivey PMI closely followed survey
FRIDAY
09:15  CH CPI SNB targets inflation
09:30 GB Trade External accounts
13:30 CA Jobless Key growth measure
13:30 US Jobless Top U.s. indicator
15:15  FRB Yellen Paris key speech
 

GVI Forex john 20:36 GMT November 4, 2014
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

USA ZEUS 19:36 GMT November 4, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

USA ZEUS 23:58 GMT November 3, 2014

...Not good for USD in USD/JPY EUR/USD GBP/USD and AUD/USD.

________________________________________________________

Perfect.

GVI Forex john 19:19 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

I read an article about the ECB discord. It said that the Fed or BOE can have a 5-4 decision, and thats OK and will be accepted by the respective boards. On the other hand, the ECB is a collection of countries, not individuals, and works best when it is run by consensus and there is none now.

The ECB is fairly evenly split between the QE and non-QE forces. Apparently, Chancellor Merkel met separately with Weidman and Draghi recently and asked them to play nicely, but she failed to get them together. The Q&A Thursday should be "interesting", i doubt Draghi will air the ECB dirty laundry.

GVI Forex Blog 19:08 GMT November 4, 2014
Report of Internal ECB Leadership Strife. U.S. Election Results on Tuesday Evening. ADP Jobs Wednesd
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- BOJ Minutes, EZ- SVC PMI's GB- SVC PMI, US- ADP Payrolls, SVC PMIs, Crude

Wednesday sees the second wave of global PMI data and U.S. ADP Private Jobs data. Late Tuesday features results from U.S. elections for one third of the Senate and the entire House of Representatives. A change in the balance of power in the Senate to the Republicans is expected, but many key races are very close..

Report of Internal ECB Leadership Strife. U.S. Election Results on Tuesday Evening. ADP Jobs Wednesday

london red 18:55 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

lets hope the journos are on the ball and press him on the consensus issue and the reuters report

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 18:49 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

All that matters is whether the market is forced to scale back the risk of QE.

london red 18:46 GMT November 4, 2014
Global Markets News

brent. mkt moved a buck below recent low. a close or not below that daily low will indicate what we do from here.

Mtl JP 18:44 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

do u think the acrimony is so serious that Mario should employ a food taster ?

GVI Forex Blog 18:44 GMT November 4, 2014 Reply   
November 4, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, November 5. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- BOJ Minutes, EZ- service PMI's GB- Service PMI, US- ADP Private Payrolls, Service PMIs, Weekly Crude

GVI Forex Data Outlook for November 5, 2014

NY JM 18:41 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

This increases attention on Draghi's press conference.

GVI Forex john 18:41 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



November 4, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, November 5. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- BOJ Minutes, EZ- service PMI's GB- Service PMI, US- ADP Private Payrolls, Service PMIs, Weekly Crude

  • Far East: JP- BOJ Minutes.
  • Europe: EZ- service PMI's GB- Service PMI,
  • North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Private Payrolls, Service PMIs, Weekly Crude.


london red 18:27 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

well tomorrow is the 5th, if i was him i would avoid any bonfires or he could end up as the Guy!

Mtl JP 18:04 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

now that we ve been informed about a potentially acrimonious dinner, contemplating the next euro play shrt or long
eurgbp
eurdlr
euryen

GVI Forex Blog 17:14 GMT November 4, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
There are reports of serious discord on the ECB governing committee this morning. According to reports citing sources, committee members are planning to challenge President Draghi and critique his leadership style at the governors' dinner on Wednesday, Nov 5th.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: ECB Discord Hits Equity Markets

Mtl JP 17:03 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

nh alternately Your millennial kid could earn $10,000 a month playing video games

shows how out of the loop "leaders" like Poloz are... just another one not listening to Sara "The World has Changed" Stevenson

Livingston nh 16:52 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Unemployment - there are a number of ways to adjust employment hours (manufacturing/mining/industrial used shifts) - 40 hours is a standard for overtime but 60 was the norm for many years - the workweek varies by industry - 3 days of 10 hrs per day would cure many ills // much of the outsourcing could be eliminated if the workforce in the US wasn't so rigid

Mtl JP 16:46 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

john 16:41 BoC's Poloz claims to know how:

Mtl JP 11:33 GMT November 4, 2014
...consider working for free...

Mtl JP 16:42 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

JM 16:32 IF there is "Fat chance Germany tampers with its fiscal budget." that would make the German an anti-US and anti-IMF rebel

GVI Forex john 16:41 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

The problem that just about every major economy faces is structural unemployment. Central Banks have the tools to address cyclical economic swings, but no one knows how to solve structural unemployment.

Mtl JP 16:37 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Kwun 16:23 fwiw that flurry came about just ahead of London fix

GVI Forex john 16:37 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

red- simply put. A one size fits all currency union is doomed to failure absent a strong central government, taxing & spending authority, etc. It could never work. How do you smoothly coordinate all these disparate economies?

In the U.S., the different states support one another via the Federal government. I don't see how Germany agrees to support other EZ members.

NY JM 16:32 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

And now they want Germany to spend its surplus to boost the rest of Europe. Fat chance Germany tampers with its fiscal budget.

Mtl JP 16:31 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Canadian Scotia Bank takes a $451-million writedown in the fourth quarter

GVI Forex john 16:30 GMT November 4, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply   

16:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Early in European trading hours, markets are in a RISK-OFF posture as markets digest reports that ECB President Draghi is facing opposition from factions in the board of the ECB.  In the Far East, equities ended mixed. Japan played catch-up after its Monday holiday.  European bourses are ending lower. U.S. shares are weaker at this hour.

U.S. 10-yr yields are down. 10-yr bund and gilt yields are lower.The Peripheral European bond yields are mostly higher.




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


london red 16:24 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

john, the germans didnt sign up to this euro business to bail out others. the whole point was usddem was too high, everytime there was a crisis in the world everyone piled in and whoops those volkswagens cost that bit more for foreigners to buy while those renaults were getting cheaper and cheaper. dem was the swissy mk2 back in the day when the swissy really was the land of secrets and cuckoo clocks.
so the germans looked over the fence to italy spain etc and dreamed of owning such beat up currencies. and then came the plan. launch the euro. get everyone involved ie. get everyone to give up their competitive advantage (where do you think the french franc would be now vs the dem) by giving them some nonsense about one europe, but when they ask about borrowing rates, tell them for now everyone has there own bonds but that in the future there will be eurobonds where everyone gets the same rate. thats the carrot on the stick hung out in front of the donkey. and we all know how that plays out. all the while german is the one that continues to get ultra low borrowing rates but benefits from a beat up currency. and not a bullet fired.

Central Kwun 16:23 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

how come suddenly have so many breaking news, ukraine, EU... who making the noise? manipulate?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:16 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

See this

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:43 GMT 11/04/2014 - My Profile

Opposition to Mario has been building

GVI Forex john 16:12 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

I think Mario's opposition comes from a lot closer, namely Frankfurt and Berlin.

Mtl JP 16:09 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

john 16:04 maybe it is all part of Mario's "whatever it takes" tactics
this time maybe against countering the numnuts nutballs from Japan

Mtl JP 16:06 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

what ... they don't all want to be trillionaires ?

GVI Forex john 16:05 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

NATO's Stoltenberg: Russian troops moving closer to the border with Ukraine.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:04 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

High so far 1.2577, cluster of res loom above it

Res 1.2590 (1 hour), 1.2595 (R3), 1.2605 (50% of 1.2770-1.2440)

GVI Forex john 16:04 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

The problem is we never know how well these stories are sourced. Even if it is accurate, you have to wonder if the true story will ever get out.

If it does, it is in the realm of possibilities that Draghi COULD resign? I doubt it, but who knows?

A split in the leadership of the ECB would have to be EUR negative?

Suggests that QE must be off the table?

london red 16:04 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

below 61 takes some steam off risk then towards 43. but the longer it stays up, the less likely it is to retrace below 30 by the rollover.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:53 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Thanks to John for the alert. Here is the story:

10:16 (EU) Reportedly ECB committee members are planning to challenge President Draghi and critique his leadership style - financial press
- Reportedly ECB members were upset that Draghi kept key aides in the dark on new policy steps
- The members are said to be planning to raise concerns at the ECB governors' dinner on Wednesday, Nov 5th
- Dispute may make it more difficult for ECB to take stronger steps to fight the crisis
- Draghi may have a difficult time politically pushing through QE with only a sliight majority of support among the council; and just less than half of the members are not in favor of QE, leading to disagreements

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 15:45 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.255x Target: 1.2535 and lower Stop: 30 pips

red 15:40 I play

london red 15:45 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

still long from trendline JP, will close under 30 (asia and london high) unless i see one of the sell lvls hit. as they stopped in low 60's and no direct run to 71, the 71 level is at risk, but the shs neck usually gets tested so a move to (want to be short no later than 12590 on way back down) 12605/10 is a move well within the confines of the trend.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:43 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

I posted a link to this article on GVI Forex on Oct 1.

Merkel has a duty to stop Draghi’s illegal fiscal meddling

london red 15:40 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

30 needs to hold for this move to have legs. otherwise back to hourly trendline below there, now at 12507.

Mtl JP 15:40 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

are we short against the high ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:38 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

High was 1.2561.......

New York LR 15:37 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

The Empire (Germany) Strikes Back!

GVI Forex 15:34 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Report: ECB members to challenge Draghi on his secretive management style.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:33 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

1.2662 = 100 hour mva

Mtl JP 15:32 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

the 5% play is at Res 3 1.2595

SaaR KaL 15:31 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

Longing USDCHF at 0.9612

Mtl JP 15:30 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD

r u or not playing the 1.2555 - R2 ?

london red 15:29 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

12570 (prev low) 12605/10 (fib + prev shs neck) 12651 (fib) 12686 (pivot and trendline). last high 12770. likely only 2570 gets done, but i like to be prepared in advance.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:25 GMT November 4, 2014
EURUSD
Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

I posted this earlier on GVI Forex

- Consolidating Tuesday
- EURUSD 1.25 trades for 3rd day in a row - obvious bias setter while within 1.2450-1.2550
- Little between 1.25-1.26 so 1.2550 becomes pivotal
- Levels:
Res:
1.2555 - R2
1.2566 = 50% of 1.2770-1.2440
Sup:
1.2470 (minor)
1.2440 (Monday low)
- Potential Monday Effect as long as above 1.2440 but event risks (ECB, NFP) argue against it. Yellen on Friday is the wild card.

SaaR KaL 15:07 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

EURUSD Could End Up Thursday close around 1.2450 for it's high..Low might be 1.2380

Not sure about this output

GVI Forex john 15:00 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Factory Orders October 2014



ALERT

-0.60% vs. -0.50% exp. vs. -10.10% (r -10.0) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 14:47 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

specs sold the fib break at 125/12460. stops over 12530/50. they have been safe since everybody jumps on any uptick. most plan to sell ecb blip higher into nfp. thats my plan too. but rarely so easy, so market may push lower on ecb first, but only after pmis tomorrow are out of way.

SaaR KaL 14:41 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

I placed orders between 1.2532 to 1.2550
Target 1.2476 to 1.2450

Mtl JP 14:39 GMT November 4, 2014
according to Bullard

"We're in good shape"

NY JM 14:36 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

red, that assumes there are stops on the upside and there are no obvious levels to go after between 1.25-1.26 other than today's high. There is currently as 3 day pattern where 1,25 has traded each day.

london red 14:30 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

euro. hourly trendline at 12506 touched. fib at 12502. youd expect a quick move to 75/83 if below, but i think with ecb expected to offer little on thursday and servs pmis tomorrow (generally firmer side of economy), maybe we get another run higher.

SaaR KaL 14:28 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

GBPAUD
Range (1.8469 , 1.8262) Date (11/4/2014 9:20:00 AM)
Range (1.8594 , 1.8386) Date (11/5/2014 6:10:00 AM)

NDX
Range (4180.6993 , 4143.622) Date (11/4/2014 9:25:00 AM)
Range (4197.6414 , 4160.8515) Date (11/5/2014 6:15:00 AM)

Mtl JP 14:15 GMT November 4, 2014
according to Bullard
Reply   
- Fed should be able to hike rates next year
- backs Fed decision to end QE3 last month
- Markets have moved away from view of global recession

SaaR KaL 14:04 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

SHort NZDUSD
NZDUSD
Range (0.7775 , 0.7676) Date (11/4/2014 5:05:00 AM)
Range (0.7724 , 0.7626) Date (11/5/2014 1:55:00 AM)

GVI Forex john 13:56 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

a larger trade deficit is a net deduction from GDP the figures today will be impact the next revision to 3Q14 GDP. These figures are estimated until the final components are released.

GVI Forex john 13:39 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Trade Deficit widens.

GVI Forex john 13:32 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

BREAKING NEWS: U.S. (USD bn) & Canada (CAD bn) Trade September 2014



ALERT
-43.0 vs. -40.0 exp. vs. -41.0 (-39.99) prev.
Canada Trade C$ bln
+0.70 vs. -0.70 exp. vs. -0.61 (-0.463)prev.

U.S. Balance on Goods and Services

Canadian Trade Balance


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 13:24 GMT November 4, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


USD & EUR Pivots. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System


Mtl JP 13:18 GMT November 4, 2014
if still short audusd next resonable target: Sup 1 0.8656

Mtl JP 13:13 GMT November 4, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

"tumbled" is a charitable adjective

in French a better description is be merde en fut
(flows like crap on tap)
-
I have also taken liberty with a similar to some CB academic formula to project the following:
June 25 - Nov 02 = 17 weeks (we have a timeline)
from $107 to $78 = 29 bux (we have a trend)
17weeks x 5days = 85 days
round it off to a 50 cent per day slide
from current 78 bux , on straight line 50cent/day projection, crude will be NO CHARGE in 156 days

london red 13:13 GMT November 4, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

loonie. monthly upper channel line at 11449. they may take profits there if seen today but a break indicates an acceleration of uptrend with a target of anything from 11540 to 11690. support is at 11335/15 and v imp pivot at 11243.

NY JM 13:10 GMT November 4, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

... and dragged CAD (USDCAD higher) with it

GVI Forex john 13:08 GMT November 4, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

fwiw JP mentioned earlier on GVI Forex that crude (wti) has tumbled today.
76.39 -2.42 (LOD 75.84)

Mtl JP 12:53 GMT November 4, 2014
probably a good ide to either tp the short aud dlr or at least pull down the sl to cost +1

Mtl JP 12:48 GMT November 4, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

early merry x-mass greeting
Scotiabank to cut 1500 jobs amid restructuring charges - CBC.ca
Scotiabank will 1,500 jobs, including about 1,000 in Canada, as it reduces head-office staff and cuts some of its international branches.

GVI Forex john 12:10 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

EARLIER: Final Japanese PMI. flash PMI revised down slightly...

GVI Forex john 12:09 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

BREAKING NEWS: Japan final PMI October 2014




EARLIER NEWS ALERT
52.4 vs. 52.8 exp. vs. 52.8 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 11:57 GMT November 4, 2014
Sell AUDUSD
Entry: 8740 Target: 20 pips south Stop: 20 pips north

not an outstanding RR

GVI Forex Blog 11:48 GMT November 4, 2014 Reply   
AUD trading was volatile during the Asian session amid a set of economic data and a policy statement from the RBA. The currency was hammerd by another revision in its unemployment data was rebounded after the RBA removed the language that "AUD remained high by historical standards"

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: EU Commission cuts 2014 and 2015 growth and inflation outlook

Mtl JP 11:33 GMT November 4, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

current conditions in Canada, according to
Poloz Sees Kids in the Basement as Recovery Barometer - bbrg

How bad are things in Canada’s job market? Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz says bad enough for young people to consider working for free. .../..

Mtl JP 11:00 GMT November 4, 2014
Reserve Bank of Australia Keeps Policy Steady; Talks Down AUD. UK Construction PMI Weakens

and... EU's economic clouds are apparently growing darker as
EU Cuts Eurozone Growth Forecast - wsj
Commission Cites Tensions in Ukraine, Middle East

The 28 EU countries are now expected to grow on average 1.3% this year, down from 1.6% growth seen in the spring. Next year, EU GDP is expected to rise 1.5%, also below the 2% previously forecast. In 2016, growth is seen reaching 2%.

GVI Forex Blog 10:55 GMT November 4, 2014
Reserve Bank of Australia Keeps Policy Steady; Talks Down AUD. UK Construction PMI Weakens
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: CA & US- Trade, US- House & Senate Elections, Trade, Factory Orders

Today features major U.S. elections for the Senate and House of Representatives. A change in the balance of power in the Senate to the Republicans is expected. Results will start to arrive in the evening. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates steady as widelly expected ans also continued to talk the curency lower. U.K. Construction PMI data were weakr than forecast, but still remained at elevated levels. .

Reserve Bank of Australia Keeps Policy Steady; Talks Down AUD. UK Construction PMI Weakens

GVI Forex john 10:33 GMT November 4, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Reply   

16:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Early in European trading hours, markets are in a MIXED RISK posture as markets continue to consolidate after a recent bout of instability. Recent  BOJ actions are expected to intensify the pressure on the ECB to ease on Thursday. In the Far East, equities ended mixed. Japan played catch-up after its Monday holiday.  European bourses are mixed. U.S. shares are lower at this hour.

U.S. 10-yr yields are steady. 10-yr bund and gilt yields are down slightly. Peripheral European bond yields are higher.




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


SaaR KaL 10:22 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

AUDUSD is da test
Range (0.8754 , 0.8633) Date (11/4/2014 5:20:00 AM)
Range (0.8692 , 0.8572) Date (11/5/2014 2:10:00 AM)
...Lets see

SaaR KaL 10:17 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

GBPCHF
Range (1.5448 , 1.5387) Date (11/4/2014 5:15:00 AM)
Range (1.5495 , 1.5435) Date (11/5/2014 2:05:00 AM)

I just do not know guys

SaaR KaL 10:11 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

USDCAD
Range (1.1454 , 1.1291) Date (11/4/2014 5:10:00 AM)
Range (1.1511 , 1.1347) Date (11/5/2014 2:00:00 AM)

anything could happen

SaaR KaL 10:07 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

would be nice too be a day trader
considering every possiblity on the menu and easily react to it before it happens
NZDUSD
Range (0.7775 , 0.7676) Date (11/4/2014 5:05:00 AM)
Range (0.7724 , 0.7626) Date (11/5/2014 1:55:00 AM)

GVI Forex john 10:05 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Eurozone PPI October 2014





ALERT
mm: +0.20% vs. 0.00% exp. vs. -0.10% (r ) prev.
yy: -1.40% vs. -1.50% exp. vs. -1.40% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

SaaR KaL 10:03 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

Cable
Range (1.6026 , 1.5956) Date (11/4/2014 5:00:00 AM)
Range (1.6024 , 1.5955) Date (11/5/2014 1:50:00 AM)

funny

SaaR KaL 10:02 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

Not sure how you guys taking my posts today..but
GBPNZD
Range (2.0813 , 2.0578) Date (11/4/2014 5:00:00 AM)
Range (2.0949 , 2.0713) Date (11/5/2014 1:50:00 AM)

would be nice if works

london red 10:01 GMT November 4, 2014
euro

some bigs sales just now on the gap fill. so thats the first pivot at 1.60/15998. then as mentioned prev. but its had a bid feel last couple of days and looking slightly constructive technically although no higher breaks/closes as yet. im still bearish on this one but just wonder if we can get a blip to sell at better levsl 16088-162. a better pmi tomorrow would certainly be the surprise side, but with inflation non existant, you have to sell the blip.

SaaR KaL 09:59 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

USDCHF
Range (0.9669 , 0.9613) Date (11/4/2014 4:55:00 AM)
Range (0.97 , 0.9644) Date (11/5/2014 1:45:00 AM)

SaaR KaL 09:56 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

EURGBP
Range (0.7835 , 0.7799) Date (11/4/2014 4:50:00 AM)
Range (0.7808 , 0.7773) Date (11/5/2014 1:40:00 AM)

Red/
what do you think?
Possible?

gc sf 09:52 GMT November 4, 2014
euro

nikkei down 120 from the bounce off the low high... so some offers should come in.

interesting day really because in $yen there are bids now because people still see value in it

but if the US Stock Market has a bad day it is going to travel further than 113.20 potentially down to 112.65 as these bids prob have to stop out.

GBP if your right Red - gbp should be pretty offered into tomorrow.

Anyway we shall see Asian Open Tomorrow how it plays out during your day // GT.

GVI Forex john 09:51 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.K. October Services PMI weaker than expected, but still at a high level.




UK Charts=> http://goo.gl/qhfE28

SaaR KaL 09:51 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

if all works out then gold
Range (1172.4709 , 1160.3387) Date (11/4/2014 4:50:00 AM)
Range (1162.2663 , 1150.5373) Date (11/5/2014 1:40:00 AM)

SaaR KaL 09:46 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

USDJPY
Range (114.7992 , 113.0764) Date (11/4/2014 4:45:00 AM)
Range (116.402 , 114.6587) Date (11/5/2014 1:35:00 AM)

SaaR KaL 09:44 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

not sure of this either (5 Minutes data..so...??)

eurusd
Range (1.2543 , 1.2462) Date (11/4/2014 4:40:00 AM)
Range (1.2498 , 1.2418) Date (11/5/2014 1:30:00 AM)

GVI Forex john 09:43 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Construction PMI October 2014




-- NEWS ALERT --

61.4 vs. 63.5 exp. vs. 64.2 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

SaaR KaL 09:42 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

Not sure if this will work using 5 minutes data
NZDJPY
Range (88.387 , 87.6441) Date (11/4/2014 4:35:00 AM)
Range (89.0396 , 88.2981) Date (11/5/2014 1:25:00 AM)
I guess a buy

SaaR KaL 09:36 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

why?...what he do?
Nice guy Seth...Maybe someone got him angry somewhere.

EURJPY
Range (143.4395 , 141.4837) Date (11/4/2014 4:30:00 AM)
Range (144.9403 , 142.9726) Date (11/5/2014 1:20:00 AM)

probably a buy today

Cambridge Joe 09:33 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

KaL . Nice joke !

Off topic I know, so pls forgive.

My friend Seth went off the rails and is looking at possible 12 years max.

Trial 15 Nov Kansas.

Anyone everone spare a prayer. Please. Ask that he is given the strenght to survive.

Bye

Joe

SaaR KaL 09:31 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

That means
EURJPY
Range (153.6721 , 134.6845) Date (11/4/2014)
Range (183.3148 , 161.0589) Date (10/21/2015 12:14:33 AM)

SaaR KaL 09:30 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

I guess a buy year for usdjpy
Range (116.3621 , 98.8165) Date (11/4/2014)
Range (134.4216 , 114.1819) Date (10/21/2015 12:14:33 AM)

SaaR KaL 09:26 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades

This Model Includes every SMA from 100 to 400 Periods to do period close ranges in P.I at 3 sigma

USDCAD
Range (1.1381 , 0.9881) Date (11/4/2014)
Range (1.033 , 0.8953) Date (10/21/2015 12:14:33 AM)

EURUSD
Range (1.4542 , 1.2395) Date (11/4/2014)
Range (1.5014 , 1.2822) Date (10/21/2015 12:14:33 AM)

SaaR KaL 09:19 GMT November 4, 2014
Day's Trades
Reply   
An old couple from NJ went to the holy land in Jerusalem for 2 weeks.
During the visit the old woman died.

The old man had to make a decision to take the body back to NJ for $5000...or let her rest in holy land for $500.
he choose to to take her back to NJ...while the benefits (Holy land + Cost)...Seems no Economics at all...

a young Man asked why are doing this?..Old man replies

"Son.. you do not understand...Some 2000 years ago someone here resurrected from the dead...I aint taking any chances for that to happen."

london red 08:57 GMT November 4, 2014
euro

euro. if not making a short term bottom, than at least attempting to arrest the slide, with 76.4 fib of 120/140 acting as a support at 12502. we have an hourly trendline (current 12495) also offering support, while if below 61.8 short term fib at 12474, you look to a continuation of the trend confirmed by a break of low with stop over 12531 and target of 12377.
yen. they used the 11420 res as a profit take, now 113 stands in the way of a gap fill to 112.47. for the topside, id go with sf and put a marker at 11382/85, abv there they should have another go at 11420.
while supports at 11197 and 11165 are not expected to be tested, they should be treated as gifts if seen and i would expect nothing else but a fast reversal back up off them. a move below gap makes them more likely. theoretically a move below them would signal an end to the fast pace of the uptrend (and a return to 110-108), something that clashes with the nature of the boj action, so this scenario should be ruled out from base cases. an end of year 109/110 put is sufficient cheap protection for such an unlikely scenario.
cable. recent q3 data indicated a slowing in services (tomorrow) and that manufacturing and construction actually contributed in pulling up the estimate. the warm weather certainly helped and so todays construction numbers might benefit from that. how much is uncertain since they are at lofty levels and it might just mean a miss is avoided. tomorrows services are much more important. miss there and cable takes a leg lower despite the beginnings of a constructive nature on the charts today. a move abv 16024/28 brings 16088 into play, but that will probably cap into tomorrows servs pmi. ultimately anythijng below 16220/30 keeps the l/t downtrend in play.

gc sf 07:30 GMT November 4, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

Nikkei has a late sell off but has bounced abit - helping $yen off the lows

really depends on Europe Stocks and US Stocks quite abit from here.

GVI Forex Blog 05:37 GMT November 4, 2014 Reply   
(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 2.50%; AS EXPECTED (14TH STRAIGHT PAUSE) - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT TRADE BALANCE (A$): -2.3B V -1.78BE (largest deficit in 22 mont

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: RBA on hold, expects inflation to remain in target range; Aussie retail spending and trade deficit rise ***Economic Data*** - Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 04:23 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

RBA stays pat

Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 02:11 GMT November 4, 2014
euro

2500 sh stopped at BE..

gl all

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:58 GMT November 4, 2014
AceTrader Nov 4: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY AUS/USD) & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

04 Nov 2014 01:22GMT
AUS/USD - ....... Australia's official statistician released revised figures for employment showed that labour market was weaker than first report over Aug n September.
Australian September employment revised to -23.7K, from -29.7K, whilst Australian September unemployment rate revised to 6.2% vs 6.1% in August.

04 Nov 2014 00:28GMT
USD/JPY - ...... quoting comments from Japan EcoMin Amari when asked about weak yen, he said 'yen will no doubt move in that direction given divergence in U.S., Japan monetary polices.'
and 'believe PM Abe will like to take into account MOF's corporate survey, due early Dec, in making final decision on if to raise sales tax hike.'

Tuesday will see the release of Australia's trade balance and retail sales, RBA interest rate decision and statement, U.K. Halifax house price, Markit construction PMI, EU producer prices, U.S. international trade, Canada's exports, imports and trade balance, U.S. Redbook, ISM New York index, factory orders and durable goods.

gc sf 01:31 GMT November 4, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

USD vs EUR+GBP+YEN

in Asia we have pretty much bought USD for some time - I can't remember the last real big anti-USD move we have had.

in fact it seemed the US tried to retrace every USD move we made here.

USD vs AUD + NZD ... bit if a different story here - we have seen large moves both sides driven by Data/Comments and Actual Selling by CB.

so from our perspective here in Asia the surprise move is Anti-USD vs the majors .. or as you say knee-jerk

in $YEN 113.85 seems to be the point where the bulls breathe a sigh of relief .. while it is under there it runs a risk down to 113.20

anyway we shall see how far this move travels or just stops moving at some point.

Provo John 01:02 GMT November 4, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

It does not matter which side controls the senate. Nothing will change. NOTHING. There will be 2 more years of partisan garbage with little of substance getting passed. Mostly just posturing for 2016. It will have 0 effect on the Fed.

As for the markets, what I look for is a knee jerk reaction. And the direction of that is the question in my mind. Until then, do we just watch the paint dry? And how much if any positioning before it?

Sydney BA 00:52 GMT November 4, 2014
AUD
Reply   
Why is audusd getting whacked?

USA ZEUS 00:39 GMT November 4, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

Livingston nh 00:07 GMT 11/04/2014

I still view USD as a safe haven. See contra-safe haven trades forming today, which yes may lead to higher rates if that means dumping treasuries in favour of risk appetite. Perhaps what it means is a two-way street led first with a pullback in USD interest...

GVI Forex 00:35 GMT November 4, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

MNI: AUSTRALIA SEP RETAIL SALES +1.2% M/M; MNI MEDIAN +0.4%

MNI: AUSTRALIA Q3 RETAIL SALES +1.0% Q/Q; MNI MEDIAN +0.4%

MNI: AUSTRALIA SEP TRADE BALANCE -2.3B; MNI MEDIAN -A$2.0B

MNI: AUSTRALIA SEP REVISED JOBLESS RATE 6.2% VS 6.1% PRIOR PUBLISHED

jkt abel 00:16 GMT November 4, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

chance to reload usdjpy today, golden chance

GVI Forex Blog 00:14 GMT November 4, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar index at four-year highs

* Yen, euro under pressure; commodity currencies also hit

* Upbeat ISM contrasts with disappointing China, euro zone PMI

FOREX-Dollar wins more fans, hits four-year high

Livingston nh 00:07 GMT November 4, 2014
USD/YEN Chart gazing

Zeus - wouldn't risk-on invite higher US RATES?

 




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