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Forex Forum Archive for 11/08/2014

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Mtl JP 21:57 GMT November 8, 2014
Bundesbank Fading ECB Puppetmaster? - November 9, 2014

I give little credence to Central Bankers' activism (Kuroda and Draghi) as a genuine expression of concern for unemployment and economic growth in their respective sandboxes - also never mind Yellen screaching from the sideline to �employ all available tools, including unconventional policies, to support economic growth and reach their inflation targets.�. In reference , even MSM headlines screamed "desperation" - but never really clearly specifying desperation about what exactly.

I struggle believing the Bank Stress Tests. Rather just because they are paraded about raises my suspicions in this world of fakes : �Nobody can predict how long governments can get away with fake growth, fake money, fake jobs, fake financial stability, fake inflation numbers and fake income growth. ... When confidence is lost, that loss can be severe, sudden and simultaneous across a number of markets and sectors,� to borrow from Paul Singer via BBRG. But acts of desperation would suggest that some sort of reset is nearer than is being let on.

Dillon AL 21:41 GMT November 8, 2014
Bundesbank Fading ECB Puppetmaster? - November 9, 2014

If that be the case John then come election time they will rue the day cos Meine Damen und Herren will not stand for it. They acquiesced to the transfer to the Euro precisely not to lose control and precisely not to have a weak but a strong (relatively) currency. You forget that Germany and Austria still live very much in the shroud of the Weimar years. The BUBA may have agreed to allow Draghi to have his way for now but in no way have the ceded control. If they had then full QE would already have been implemented - which btw is strictly against the ECB charter and constitution - hence why his body language is not good.

GVI Forex john 20:29 GMT November 8, 2014
Bundesbank Fading ECB Puppetmaster? - November 9, 2014

When "Dim Wim" Duisenberg and Trichet were in charge, the ECB was thought to be the new Bundesbank. Talk was the Germans called all the shots from behind the scenes. Germany has a slow growth low inflation economy. Therefore the the Bundesbank hawks favored a monetary policy suited to their economy.

The problem is that policy is not suited for developing economies that prefer faster growth and need job creation, especially in the southern tier of the Eurozone. It appears that Draghi and his ECB allies have stood up to the Bundesbank saying that the slow growth policies don't suit the bulk of counties in the EZ and they have come out on top.

This suggests to me that the strong EUR policy of the Bundesbank (Strong DM) is now history.

Dillon AL 20:25 GMT November 8, 2014
Bundesbank Fading ECB Puppetmaster? - November 9, 2014

Nothing in Europe happens without the good German sanctioning it and this time I'm sure its political pressure (Merkel) on the BUBA (Weidmann) to not rock the boat rather than any transfer of power. Hence why Draghi looked ill at ease etc cos his head is now firmly on the block for when the proverbial happens

Mtl JP 19:40 GMT November 8, 2014
Bundesbank Fading ECB Puppetmaster? - November 9, 2014

GVI Forex john 15:06 re "days where the ECB was the Bundesbank's puppet are drawing to a close", exactly what are you suggesting about some shift of power and control of European geo-econo-political integration ? Can you put some names of folks / organizations that are gainers and losers ?

GVI Forex john 19:19 GMT November 8, 2014


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GVI Forex john 19:17 GMT November 8, 2014

Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

17:00 TRY 30yr Auction
CA/US Holiday
9:30 GB Employment Major statistic
9:30 GB BOE Inflation Report insight to BOE policy
15:30 US EIA Crude
17:00 TRY 10-yr Auction
5:30 JP Ind Out construction
7:00 DE HICP German CPI
13:30 US Initial Claims Weekly jobs data
17:00 UST 30-yr Auction
7:00 DE GDP key German statistic
10:00 EZ 3Q14 GDP key EZ statistician
10:00 EZ HICP final EZ October CPI
13:30 US Retail Sales consumer demand
14:55 US U Mich prelim Key sentiment Survey

GVI Forex john 15:06 GMT November 8, 2014
Bundesbank Fading ECB Puppetmaster? - November 9, 2014

What Did Mario Say?
When European Cental Bank President Draghi appeared before the press after the policy board meeting last Thursday, he appeared to be frazzled and irritable. The ECB was keeping up appearances by publicly patching over its internal differences. Who knows what went on behind closed doors. There is little doubt that the philosophical divide over QE persists in the governing council, but President Draghi pledged to do whatever is needed to support the economy. The days where the ECB was the Bundesbank's puppet are drawing to a close. The EURUSD is poised for additional weakness to 1.20 or below.

U.S. Jobs Miss Expectations
The Street had been touting...

Bundesbank Fading ECB Puppetmaster? - November 9, 2014

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:30 GMT November 8, 2014
euro long

AL posted this on GVI Forex

Dillon AL 14:16 GMT 11/08/2014 - My Profile

EurUsd: It's very interesting to watch, listen and see people's perceptions about price action. So far this month It's a small range and yet many want to suggest that either the trend is over or a reversal is imminent without really presenting any evidence. Just a few days ago the ECB kept its rhetoric basically the same IE a green light to continue selling the single currency and until IMHO it hits 1.1744 I doubt they will let up and yet somehow I detect many market punters seemingly wish to talk the currency back up in the face of both fundy and tech reasons to actually do the opposite.
Why I ask myself ..sure we had a 100+ rally off this week's lows but we had a 385 pip bounce 4 weeks ago so I scratch my head as to why so many seemingly want to sell USDs.
I look at the other majors and yes there are minor signs of a slight excess on the weekly in that we did not close on the dead extremes but the reality is that until we see more evidence then the current trend is firmly entrenched and not about to be turned around.
I suspect that part of the reason is the multi year in-vogue anti-usd that people just cannot shake (and in that respect I presume it's still all Bush's fault which is a blatantly unfair statement but with the possibility that Jeb will run I assume this negative rhetoric will return)
and the main reason probably is because so many have missed out on a major trend opportunity and possibly only jumped on the bandwagon over the last 2+ weeks but with a maximum 400 pip downdraft of which I doubt they have caught much more that 125 they take fright at what appears to be a speed move but in reality is rather pedestrian and so once again should we get a rally I suspect that we will get a crescendo of pain when it turns back down. The alternative of course is an early drift where they just will not be able to bring themselves to hit the bid creating the opposite reaction IE btfd which will also create a disbelief style trade
Just in case the bulls are actually right I am prepared to
UsdJpy still remain with a bid at 112.57 (yes this is ahead of the gap but for a good reason. 50dma on the 5hrly)
UsdCad but around 1.1127
Kiwi looking for much deeper erosion to at least a 72-73 handle
Swissy well my view is well known the hidden hand line in the sand is going to be tested so the risk is UsdChf is to around 1.01-1.02 with risk to 1.1111
GbpUsd sell around 1.6020 for 1.5730 then 1.46 then 1.41
EurUsd ideally they buy it up early and create the conditions for an outside down week

tokyo ginko 13:50 GMT November 8, 2014
Aussie property

what's the opinion on Australia 108 ?

heard the project just been launched and already more than 10% taken up..

prague viktor 05:12 GMT November 8, 2014
euro long
Entry: Target: Stop:

this the first friday since a very long time the euro been longed ,,is the show for the usd is over for now


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