dc CB 23:48 GMT November 11, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
APEC
WilliamBanzai7
GVI Forex john 23:38 GMT November 11, 2014
Using Correlations When Trading Forex
Reply
You owe it to yourself to be aware of how other markets interact will forex currency pair, Knowledge of how markets work together can enhance your understanding of how markets work. We publish current correlation tables on www.global-view.com to keep readers abreast of current trends in the markets. We take a four week time frame to keep up with current market conditions. Keep in mind, past correlations are not necessarily indicative of how the markets will behave in the future. When analyzing the markets, it is critical to be aware of when expected correlations are not working, because that can be a key signal that something might be changing.
Using Correlations When Trading Forex
tokyo ginko 23:10 GMT November 11, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Japan will only sink when there is no more tuna to eat.
Mtl JP 23:06 GMT November 11, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Japan will be news when it sinks and disappears.
Either into an economic black hole or into a crevice in the ocean.
NY JM 23:03 GMT November 11, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Abe news is not news. Market traded on it already.
Mtl JP 22:50 GMT November 11, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
john 21:46 lol, in an indirect and subtle way you are calling currency warrior Abe a political whore. As long as he sticks to ccy war and does not wake up harsh feelings in other spirits that would engage numnuts Abe's Japan in a financial war to destroy it economically or, more dramatically, to find the real reason why Japan sits on The Ring of Fire (Susano)
Tallinn viies 22:34 GMT November 11, 2014
eurusd
Reply
imho range for today 1,2440 - 1,2540.
dc CB 22:32 GMT November 11, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
The ABE WOOOOOOOO
aided by the Kurda (sp) BOJ Captain of the Cheerleading Squad
11633 and BEYOND. 120 121 125 130 140 150 180 200
Kirk: engines full. It's on ...Currency War.
WARP Speed Cptn, don't know it I can hold her!
USD/JPY
GVI Forex john 21:46 GMT November 11, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
REPORT: Japan's PM Abe to delay Sales Tax increase to April 2017.
May call snap elections within a month.
Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 21:38 GMT November 11, 2014
Euro
Thanks, John�was correct direction..and now ongoing trade management�.the important stuff..
will post each change..
GVI Forex john 21:29 GMT November 11, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
November 11, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, November 12.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: GB- Unemployment, BOE Inflation Report, EZ- Industrial Production, US- 10-yr Auction
- Far East: No Major Data
- Europe: GB- Unemployment, BOE Inflation, EZ- Industrial Production.
- North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Wholesale Inventories, 10-yr Auction.
USA ZEUS 21:23 GMT November 11, 2014
USD Correction
dc CB 18:15 GMT 11/11/2014
Very kind of you- thx!
gc sf 21:01 GMT November 11, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
well thanks John - that just means we wont be doing much till tokyo then .. may as well go walk the dog now.
GVI Forex john 20:52 GMT November 11, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
RBNZ: Kiwi remains elevated. Exchange rate could fall further.
gc sf 20:27 GMT November 11, 2014
nzdjpy
really the Key to everything from here is AUD + NZD and if they shoot up 20-25 pts and then everything else follows.
gc sf 20:19 GMT November 11, 2014
nzdjpy
YEN
the market seems bit confused - Gold moved up further as well as EUR and 20-25 has already been tested .. without the Nikkei moving back down to 17100 currently 17250
we might see that same pattern today where we have an opening Nikkei Sell Off - and a rally back in the afternoon.
Think the market will pause @45-50 and probably try back down towards 10 level.... till we see what the other markets do.... and as caution takes over.
tokyo ginko 19:39 GMT November 11, 2014
nzdjpy
sure, if the trader is targeting price at 93/94 levels
GVI Forex john 19:16 GMT November 11, 2014
Euro
Sir Ignore and Zeus great calls today.
Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 19:05 GMT November 11, 2014
Euro
2420 long 1/2 off at 2490�stop to 2465 rem
Lahore FM 18:41 GMT November 11, 2014
USD Correction
USD Correction
dc CB 18:15 GMT 11/11/2014
DC CB ,many thanx !
tokyo ginko 18:38 GMT November 11, 2014
nzdjpy
close half Nikkei 17240
dc CB 18:15 GMT November 11, 2014
USD Correction
USA ZEUS 06:20 GMT
Lahore FM 18:10 GMT
Euro and Oil respectively.
few posts but major trends identified.
The "rock stars" of GV 2014
Cheers
Lahore FM 18:10 GMT November 11, 2014
" Trade Ideas "
Sell OTHER
Entry: FTSE AND DAX and CAC 40 Target: sevral hunred to more than 1000 points Stop: to yout tolerance
short on european bourses next three months.
refrence
FTSE 6611 dec futures.will move to further months later
CAC 40 4226
DAX 9349
Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 17:35 GMT November 11, 2014
Euro
2420 long stop moved to at BE..current 2449.reached 57
2440 might be bag em up area.
GVI Forex john 16:52 GMT November 11, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Weekly
Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
WEDNESDAY
9:30 GB Employment Major statistic
9:30 GB BOE Inflation Report insight to BOE policy
17:00 TRY 10-yr Auction
THURSDAY
5:30 JP Ind Out construction
7:00 DE
HICP
German CPI
13:30 US
Initial
Claims Weekly jobs data
16:00 US EIA Crude
17:00 UST 30-yr Auction
FRIDAY
7:00 DE GDP key German statistic
10:00 EZ
3Q14
GDP key EZ statistician
10:00 EZ
HICP
final EZ October CPI
13:30 US
Retail
Sales consumer demand
14:55 US
U
Mich prelim Key sentiment Survey
�
gc sf 16:51 GMT November 11, 2014
$yen
Reply
Gold Up and things like AUD + NZD rising just slowing the level of $yen bids.
I know it is not going to get there in the next 3 hours - but think we see 115.20-25 again where I'm sure there will be bids and that should stop the EUR rise as well.
The thing too with the $yen rallies is people have different interests -- if your a buyer - you can't allow double tops - you need to keep higher highs/higher lows and you need to absorb any shocks along the way .. so far that has worked out for them .. the only negative about today's rally is that it was a thinner market so it may need some consolidation before heading more strongly towards 118.
london red 16:42 GMT November 11, 2014
eurusd
sell 84-91 stop abv 09 or 30 depending on tgt 2442/2377
Tallinn viies 16:26 GMT November 11, 2014
eurusd
Reply
as long as last week high at 1,2577 will hold Im bearish. 1,2210 target for tis month.
PAR 16:17 GMT November 11, 2014
EUR
EUR to test above 1.2500 again . Cold winter weather to slow down US economy and prevent FED from raising rates.
GVI Forex john 16:14 GMT November 11, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
11 November-- 16:15 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Markets remain in a MIXED RISK posture
Late Tuesday in Europe. This was a mixed holiday in several
countries. In the U.S., banks and government offices were closed,
but the stock markets are open. Canada is closed. The data
calendar picks up Wednesday but is generally light this week.
In the Far East, equities ended mixed
European bourses are closing broadly higher. U.S. share futures
are about flat.
U.S.bond markets are closed 10-yr bunds are steady Gilt yields
are up.
European peripheral bond
yields are mostly lower.
The
heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.
FW CS 16:01 GMT November 11, 2014
EUR
Meant Viies sorry spell check. Also maybe EUR/jpy may pull up or stabilize eurusd
FW CS 15:48 GMT November 11, 2014
EUR
Reply
Vines
If that EUR 1.2360 low is visited again probably will not hold.
Tallinn viies 15:06 GMT November 11, 2014
eurusd
Reply
1,2440 held again. now need to check 1,2395 and then down to 1,2360 then daily range is done for me
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:48 GMT November 11, 2014
USDJPY
Reply
USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
Classic in USDJPY where dip held first test of the breakout level.
By the way, for those who did not read my retracement articles, I suggest doing so.
GVI Forex Blog 14:35 GMT November 11, 2014
Reply
November 11, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, November 12. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: GB- Unemployment, BOE Inflation Report, EZ- Industrial Production, US- 10-yr Auction
GVI Forex Data Outlook for November 12, 2014
GVI Forex john 14:33 GMT November 11, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
November 11, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, November 12.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: GB- Unemployment, BOE Inflation Report,
EZ- Industrial Production, US- 10-yr Auction
- Far East: No Major Data
- Europe: GB- Unemployment, BOE Inflation, EZ- Industrial Production.
- North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, Wholesale Inventories, 10-yr Auction.
NY Global Traders Association 14:22 GMT November 11, 2014
Forex Trading Tip: Why do Retracements Work (follow up)
Reply
I posted an article yesterday that included a video explanation of one of my favorite trading tips, Why do Retracements Work? It turned out to be timely as I will illustrate in this follow up article. One of our roles as a traders advocate is to pass on our insights and you will see in this real-time example why I say this trading tip is one of my favorites. In it I will show how to use retracemnents to your trading advantage.
Forex Trading Tip: Why do Retracements Work (follow up)
Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 14:13 GMT November 11, 2014
Euro
Banks and gov closed today US..something just feels right about that..should be 3/4 times per week perhaps..
Livingston nh 13:54 GMT November 11, 2014
Correlations
John - "you're gonna need a bigger boat" - interest rates correlation is probably the most complex problem - the relative level between countries, the term and yield curve plus the "real rate" at each point, etc. // altho pointy head economists dislike the word "sometimes" it seems appropriate regarding interest rate effects
speaking of which -- from the Telegraph LINK - a novel idea
dk ky 13:54 GMT November 11, 2014
Euro
test
Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 13:47 GMT November 11, 2014
Euro
Reply
GM..a shout out to all Veterans and their families..thanks.
The i hr signal momo trade is in at 1.2416/20 Long with 1.2472 tp
with a stop at 1.2493 risking 25 approx.
4 hr signal will go off when rate opens and closes abv 1.2431 (8sma)
soon maybe..
if ever thinking about visiting southwest Florida gulf side, Sanibel Is/Naples/Ft Myers having the perfect weather now for us�.we just paid for it by tortuous heat this summer�so there you have it.
GVI Forex john 13:33 GMT November 11, 2014
Correlations
Red- Good Point. I agree 100%. it is both useful when they are working and when they aren't. When they aren't it usually tells you that something special is afoot. The "fun" thing about trading forex is discovering each day which of the various market factors are working.
london red 13:27 GMT November 11, 2014
Correlations
different day, different correlation. so trying to second guess which is going to work on what day is like chasing the end of a rainbow.
you need to keep an eye on all the major assets day in day. intraday micro spikes in various assets often signal the start or end of a correlation with another asset. position taking for an upcoming event often has a habit of breaking a working correlation.
GVI Forex john 13:23 GMT November 11, 2014
Correlations
USDJPY vs. U.S. interest rates. Clearer relationship than EURUSD. It seems to be more a question of direction of interest rates than their levels.
GVI Forex john 12:51 GMT November 11, 2014
Correlations
It takes a little imagination to see this, but you can see two distinct uplegs (August thru September and October-November) 2-yr yields that fueled rallies in the EURUSD. Note the EURUSD is on a reverse scale.
It appears the markets ignored the early-October tumble in the 2-yr yield because it was seen as temporary. You can see EURUSD traded sideways during that period.
GVI Forex john 12:29 GMT November 11, 2014
Correlations
LV good point. One interest rate relationship that DOES work very well is the EURUSD to the U.S. 2-yr note. Actually most USD relationships are strongly correlated to the 2-yr.
jkt abel 12:22 GMT November 11, 2014
nzdjpy
ginko, i think you will be keep adding until 117.30
Cape Town LV 12:13 GMT November 11, 2014
Correlations
I do not have the data, but my guess would be that maybe the relationship between interest rates and Forex are not linear (which is what correlation test for)?
GVI Forex john 12:05 GMT November 11, 2014
Correlations
One thing that I should have pointed out yesterday was how strongly correlated (both positively and negatively) forex markets are to equities. (Look at the top block of figures).
I think it is safe to infer that equity markets are closely correlated to each other!
On the other hand, interest rate correlations with forex are not nearly as strong. This surprises me.
Any insights on this??
GVI Forex john 11:56 GMT November 11, 2014
Correlations
Reply
Repost from yesterday...
correlation is not causation. Its just an indication that there is a relationship between two items
1 = perfect positive correlation
0 = no correlation
-1 = perfect negative correlation
GVI Forex john 11:03 GMT November 11, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
11 November 10:55 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Markets remain in a MIXED RISK posture
early Tuesday on a holiday marking the end of WWI in several
countries. In the U.S., banks and government offices are closed,
but the stock markets are open. Canada is closed. Today should be a
quiet session. The data calendar this week is light.
In the Far East, equities ended mixed
European bourses are trading broadly higher. U.S. share futures
are
higher at
this hour.
U.S. 10-yr yields are steady 10-yr bunds are unchanged, but Gilt yields
are up.
European peripheral bond
yields are mostly lower.
The
heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.
tokyo ginko 09:47 GMT November 11, 2014
nzdjpy
sold Nikkei 17315 !
gt all!
tokyo ginko 07:44 GMT November 11, 2014
nzdjpy
add short 115.78
gt all
Mtl JP 06:53 GMT November 11, 2014
Mixed Risk Session. Equities Rise on Hopes Central Bank Ease to Persist. Light Calendar Week
nh I like the Koreans only because , as history shows, they can act harshly , almost panic-like.
china yuan is relatively strong proclaim certain voices. to fix that inconvenience, maybe china could start dumping its mountain of us treasuries (as it is buying not paper stock but hard assets like mines and manufacturing / technology companies) and we could see us int rate start to pop... and as stocks don't like more expensive money... never mind Japanese GPIF sucking em up
USA ZEUS 06:20 GMT November 11, 2014
USD Correction
Reply
EUR/USD at 1.2420 and GBP/USD at 1.5840 are poised to rise.
Let's roll, soul
NY BOB 05:59 GMT November 11, 2014
nzdjpy
Yes you are correct. But yen want to go down to begin a fresh down next week.
gc sf 05:52 GMT November 11, 2014
nzdjpy
the Nikkei is 17170 .. your going to need a Stock Sell Off to see that level again
something in the order of 250 points.
you need a new factor that isn't in the market yet... to push it back down.
NY BOB 05:47 GMT November 11, 2014
nzdjpy
expecting to hit todays low once again.
gc sf 05:45 GMT November 11, 2014
nzdjpy
it has met the intraday targets already - what sort of target are you looking for ? .. its also a holiday in the US tomorrow so things are going to slow down somewhat from here.
NY BOB 05:31 GMT November 11, 2014
nzdjpy
Hi sf and ginko,
What would be the target for $/yen
tokyo ginko 04:58 GMT November 11, 2014
Typical Monday?
close out SNP 2038.75,
GT all
gc sf 04:36 GMT November 11, 2014
nzdjpy
YEN ...bots are placing their offers @32-35 and trailing stops @82
so it is evenly poised here... since they are looking for it to move a little further than I had thought this morning.
tokyo ginko 04:13 GMT November 11, 2014
nzdjpy
reload short usdjpy 115.05
GT
gc sf 03:59 GMT November 11, 2014
Mixed Risk Session. Equities Rise on Hopes Central Bank Ease to Persist. Light Calendar Week
I stepped away for a bit given it was bit boring -- but have seen the bots sell EUR @37 and buy more $YEN @ 82
so I guess a few signals have generated since earlier in the session and looking at Nikkei its up testing 17000 which is really just +50 from when I last sat down.
not much else to say - afternoon Tokyo can be a bit of a wildcard with moves.
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:36 GMT November 11, 2014
AceTrader Nov 11: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Nov 2014 02:08GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Dlr pares intra-day gain after an initial brief rise to 115.01 but offers at 115.00/10 capped upside and pushed price back down to 113.64.
Although dlr showed muted reaction to a sharply higher trade surplus (September surplus was 963 bln yen vs forecast of 534 bln, this represents a near 62% jump vs the same period in 2013) as yesterday's another record closings in the Dow & S&P 500 boosted risk sentiment, prompting another round of yen selling but 115.00 res seems to a tough nut to crack.
Looks like range trading is in store n teh strong bounce from yesterday's 113.86 low in Europe suggests consolidation with upside bias remains. Offers are reported at 115.00/10 with stops above there, more selling interest is noted below Friday's 7-year peak at 115.62.
On the downside, bids are noted at 114.60 and more at 114.45/40 and more below with stops touted below 113.80.
Earlier Japanese PM Shinzo Abe's approval rating fell in a public opinion poll published on Mon amid speculation the gov't is considering calling a snap election.
National broadcaster NHK surveyed 1,527 people and found support for Abe's gov't had fallen 8 percentage points from last month to 44%, the lowest since Abe's gov't began 2 years ago.
Of those surveyed, 38% said they disapproved of Abe, up 4 percentage points from last month.
Abe's popularity has been sliding since 2 members of his cabinet resigned last month over political scandals. Abe also has to decide before the end of the year whether to raise the sales tax next year and some media are reporting that he could delay this plan and call an election.
Tuesday will see the release of Japan trade balance, current account, tertiary industry index, Australia home price index, NAB business confidence. France, Canada and U.S. markets will be closed on Tuesday due to holiday.
Livingston nh 02:01 GMT November 11, 2014
Reclassifying the Internet in the US
We need to eliminate AGENCIES - the SEC encourages Rating agencies, mandates them in some instances -- FCC permits internet monopolies, local entitities benefit by awarding exclusive contracts, AT&T would have been better (1 monopoly vs multiple smaller regional) BUT Feds thot better (hooray!!) // this whole idea of agencies defeats legislative intent
Bottom line = government increases the cost and reduces the benefit of any Activity
dc CB 01:49 GMT November 11, 2014
Reclassifying the Internet in the US
The worst news on or idea on the day is the Obama idea to regulate the internet through the Federal Communications Commission.
This is an organization of conflicted individuals most likely leaning to the politically connected Google�s and Facebook�s and etc.
The rest of us will pay.
A patently political move destined to screw up the one thing that works well and needs no government interference thank you very much!
Dave's Daily ETF Digest
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:44 GMT November 11, 2014
Forex Trading Tip: Why Do Retracements Work?
Reply
This is a timely article.
This is the first of a series of articles in a video format explaining the rationale behind and showing how one might use my forex tips for trading. This one is entitled,
Why do Retracements Work? but it could read
How to Use Retracements to Your Forex Trading Advantage. It is one of my favorite tips and you will see why.
. Forex Trading Tip: Why Do Retracements Work?
Livingston nh 01:39 GMT November 11, 2014
Mixed Risk Session. Equities Rise on Hopes Central Bank Ease to Persist. Light Calendar Week
Since the US blew up Bretton Woods no major country has had to worry about its currency - it became self correcting (see UK)// all the correction pressure moved to smaller developed and EM countries -- this is one of the reasons "analysts" get the yen wrong ("oh no debt to GDP !!!" foolishness)
Widget based currency fared poorly relative to fiat based currency -- the EU is a quasi widget based currency
gc sf 01:21 GMT November 11, 2014
Mixed Risk Session. Equities Rise on Hopes Central Bank Ease to Persist. Light Calendar Week
the problem with commodities is that most information is stale.
but the one thing I get is that - the large producers around the world are squeezing out the new players - because their costs are significantly lower and they have the infrastructure in place - so they don't need capital which some of the new players do.
China is striking these long term deals with Russia - which takes away the buying power into other countries.
Honestly I have no idea what trade to put on in that space - I don't even have any Gold Positions at the moment.
My EA's are quiet so far really they just buy $yen 65-70
EUR / GBP / NZD / AUD have to do more to generate any signals... which I doubt will happen during our time here.
gc sf 00:43 GMT November 11, 2014
Mixed Risk Session. Equities Rise on Hopes Central Bank Ease to Persist. Light Calendar Week
I'm not sure on the Korean thing tbh
$yen is one of those things - where it can absorb large flows at times and not move a muscle - or it can just catch everyone off guard and on the wrong side of the trade and get really one sided.
so far we are trying to distribute the range rather than just move through the 95 mark .. but I'm just wary of one comment during Tokyo Lunch or something like that and its 40 points higher and the Nikkei is 17100.
gc sf 00:19 GMT November 11, 2014
Mixed Risk Session. Equities Rise on Hopes Central Bank Ease to Persist. Light Calendar Week
Also what we have being seeing in the Nikkei is opening near 17000 17050 17100 and selling off 200 points
today we see 16900 start so same deal it could run up to 17100 during the day .. which would break this 95 level as well.
anyway lets see how we treat these things as the day wears on.
so Far I have Nikkei Range CFD 16900 /16960 now 16950.
GT
gc jf 00:14 GMT November 11, 2014
Mixed Risk Session. Equities Rise on Hopes Central Bank Ease to Persist. Light Calendar Week
the one thing to be careful of in $YEN today - is any random Japanese Comment on Economy/Stocks etc can send this higher.
With the overnight dip holding 113.85 - those buyers in the 113.50-60 or what should have been the bottom of the range will need to lift their bids to 114.30-40 .. and in Asia anyway provide more support than normal.
we could trade a quiet higher range today -- or if something like that happens then we run the risk of 115.20-25
GVI-Johns table overnight makes it pretty clear just how correlated alot of these markets are to YEN movements.
if it is a quiet day then 65-95 -- if some comment comes or something like that then that will see 115.20-25
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