Forex Forum Archive for 11/12/2014

Livingston nh 23:19 GMT November 12, 2014
eurusd

Best thing for the Aussies is send a ship up close - Russians never do anything outside the sphere of influence - the Aussies and US are still pretty good friends - Putin is just playing a game

Livingston nh 23:01 GMT November 12, 2014
One CB is NOT printing

Every US President since Carter missed the opportunity to nuke these bastards out of a do-gooder mentality - there would be no blow back from the only two nations that mattered

shanghai bc 22:56 GMT November 12, 2014
One CB is NOT printing



A bit of history lesson is needed to understand Chinese unit in ISIS..A few hundred of the Uygur Chinese or Muslim Chinese are among ISIS units at present ..Bin Laden and his comrades were trained by CIA..Bin Laden later trained Uygurs to fight for pan-Islam state somehwere..

ISIS core units were trained by US military some years ago..When Bin Laden died some 10 years ago for illness,Uygur Chinese unit went to join ISIS..Uygur unit is on wanted list in China and will face firing squad on return..So better die for their cause somewhere outside China..Brief CV of ISIS folks..

dc CB 22:54 GMT November 12, 2014
Five Banks to Pay over $1.4 Billion in Penalties for Attempted Manipulation of Foreign Exchange

Explained In 1 Cartoon

How The Government "Punished" Wall Street

GVI Forex john 22:43 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



November 12, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, November 12. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Industrial Output, DE- final HICP, US- Weekly Jobless, JOLTS Survey, 30-yr Auction

• Far East: JP- Industrial Output
• Europe: DE- final HICP.
• North America: US- Weekly Jobless, JOLTS Survey, Weekly Crude, 30-yr Auction.

gc sf 22:31 GMT November 12, 2014
eurusd

quite a few resistances coming in bit lower today than yesterday

1.2370/1.2450 which is close to yours.

the only wildcard is $yen ... but euryen + gbpyen seemed capped on rallies .. and we know Friday is always the better day to buy $yen than today... so if that holds true - we can continue to see correction in the xxx/jpy ... AUD + NZD are stubbornly bid like their lives depend on it - so not sure there.

I don't know why Putin if he was concerned about his Safety just didn't bring extra security with him -- it certainly isn't necessary to park 4 warships off our coast ... it's not like Australia is threatening to send our 5 warships and 30 planes and 10,000 troops to over-run Moscow or anything.

Just see this whole thing as a warning that a serious confrontation is right around the corner.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 22:24 GMT November 12, 2014
GBPUSD
Reply   


Market tried to buy the dip all day and probably why there were sellers on any bounce (which were very modest) and why it closed around the low of the day in what was an ugly outside day for the currency.

Daily chart shows a void under 1.5790 (although 1.58 is most important setting the tone going forwards) so using a former breakout level at 1.5755 (I prefer 1.5750) as pivotal support as it needs to hold as there is little in the way of support below it.

Tallinn viies 22:23 GMT November 12, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
euro range for today: 1,2375 - 1,2475

Livingston nh 21:57 GMT November 12, 2014
Event Risk: Ukraine

full disclosure -- Putin may punkout but I'm short AUD anyway -- swissy is the simple one (neg interest rates?) vs Russian effect USD

Livingston nh 21:46 GMT November 12, 2014
Event Risk: Ukraine

Ha ha haw- suppose Putin the Terrible really wants to scare folks - he sends his "fleet" into Aussie waters == warn em and sink em or _______ // nobody fights the BULLY

GVI Forex john 21:39 GMT November 12, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


USD & EUR Pivots. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System

GVI Forex john 21:38 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Weekly US API DatA

NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: -1.500 vs. +0.500 exp vs. +0.460 prev.
Gasoline: +1.100 vs. +0.500 exp vs. -1.210 prev.
Distillates: -1.300 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -1.380 prev.
Cap/Util: 90.2% vs. N/A exp vs. 89.20% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Livingston nh 21:34 GMT November 12, 2014
Event Risk: Ukraine

JP - real world = scary // Putin cares not for US sanctions - some folks in his country might BUT so what who cares // the Russians have never responded to sticks but they have been known to respond to carrots // the Berlin Wall celebrants forgot this detail

Mtl JP 21:29 GMT November 12, 2014
Event Risk: Ukraine

nh 21:17 the Ukrainian is getting Dollars from the IMF , maybe also from EU. Vlad gets to claim some of it, but he probably does not even really want it coz it would provide him w/cheap causus belli

GVI Forex john 21:26 GMT November 12, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

CLOSING LEVELS...

Mtl JP 21:23 GMT November 12, 2014
Event Risk: Ukraine

nh, IF you would like to get a real life answer to that postulation, I would suggest to get plane ticket for Kiev and show up say with US$100K and start trading it directly at some Kiev bank. One or two weeks should deliver an (not the) answer.

Livingston nh 21:17 GMT November 12, 2014
Event Risk: Ukraine

JP - so in a financial war can Russia hold out against Ukraine and it allies?? Doesn't Russian debt have greater exposure to markets than Ukraine? Hence, Ukraine has less value to markets?

Mtl JP 21:13 GMT November 12, 2014
Event Risk: Ukraine

Ukrainian Hryvnia is not factor coz it not tradable by, I dare say, buy 99.95% of the gv crowd.
-
As an academic issue, Ukraine is turning out to be a classic example of the difference between currency war and financial war.

In ccy war, the issuer of the fiat simply tries to lower its relative value to some other ccy. In a financial war, one belligerent tries to push the economy of the other into abject collapse/destruction.

Livingston nh 20:56 GMT November 12, 2014
Five Banks to Pay over $1.4 Billion in Penalties for Attempted Manipulation of Foreign Exchange

Ah but JP - the defense is within the charge - ATTEMPTED -- motive motive motive - competence to task - could they have reasonably performed -- and DID THEY succeed??? BUT of course other people's money

Mtl JP 20:50 GMT November 12, 2014
Five Banks to Pay over $1.4 Billion in Penalties for Attempted Manipulation of Foreign Exchange

Global Traders Association 16:20 // penalties... penalties you say ?
it is nothing more than a permit (or licence) fee. On top of that it is being paid with Other People's Money.
-
What a JOKE !!

GVI Forex john 20:42 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

THURSDAY
5:30 JP Ind Out construction
7:00 DE HICP German CPI
13:30 US Initial Claims Weekly jobs data
17:00 UST 30-yr Auction
FRIDAY
7:00 DE GDP key German statistic
10:00 EZ 3Q14 GDP key EZ statistician
10:00 EZ HICP final EZ October CPI
13:30 US Retail Sales consumer demand
14:55 US U Mich prelim Key sentiment Survey
 

---

GVI Forex john 20:40 GMT November 12, 2014
CHART POINTS: Free Forex DatabaseA
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

HK RF@ 20:34 GMT November 12, 2014
Ill mannered president: Gum chewing Obama



Bad manners acquired from the Chicago NGO days.

Livingston nh 20:27 GMT November 12, 2014
Ill mannered president: Gum chewing Obama

That's the least of the things for them to worry about

HK RF@ 20:25 GMT November 12, 2014
Ill mannered president: Gum chewing Obama
Reply   

Link below

LINK

Livingston nh 20:21 GMT November 12, 2014
Five Banks to Pay over $1.4 Billion in Penalties for Attempted Manipulation of Foreign Exchange

As always as soon as you find the key to the markets' vault somebody goes and changes the Lock

dc CB 20:07 GMT November 12, 2014
Five Banks to Pay over $1.4 Billion in Penalties for Attempted Manipulation of Foreign Exchange

3:30 Express is now boarding on Track 15

If you are willing to put in another 30 minutes work per day... perhaps get that round of golf in after 1130ET and then come back for the close... in 17 of the last 21 days (14 of 14), the S&P 500 has rallied from 1530-1600ET...

Previewing Today's Closing Ramp: Can We Make It 15 Out Of 15?

Livingston nh 20:04 GMT November 12, 2014
USD/JPY
Reply   
The daily charts show a lot of white space between the 21 dma and spot (rising MACD) - the 4 hr chart shows the 21 ma has held well BUT MACD has Not been supportive over the past week -- next two days should see a break above 116 especially if MACD (4hr) breaks higher

GVI Forex Blog 19:44 GMT November 12, 2014
Dovish BOE Price Report Weight on GBP. U.K. Employment Figures as Seen. EZ Production Gains
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: JP- Industrial Output, DE- final HICP, US- Weekly Jobless, JOLTS Survey, 30-yr Auction

Key items Thursday are final German October HICP (CPI), U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, the JOLTS and a 30-yr auction. U.K. employment data were in line with estimates, but average earnings increased. The Bank of England inflation report seemed to keep the first rate hike pushed off to some time well in the future

Dovish BOE Price Report Weight on GBP. U.K. Employment Figures as Seen. EZ Production Gains

Livingston nh 19:22 GMT November 12, 2014
Five Banks to Pay over $1.4 Billion in Penalties for Attempted Manipulation of Foreign Exchange

All these bank investigations and payouts would argue for shareholder lawsuits -- Why settle? the settlements would buy you 20 years of litigation which never would survive the political cycle turnover - PLUS THE GOVERNMENT IS ALWAYS AT THE GREATER RISK OF LOSING (one of the reasons the IRS quietly settles when there is an expensive principle at some legal risk - better to settle with a well funded whacko than lose the revenue multiple compliant muppets)

Other People's Money

dc CB 19:12 GMT November 12, 2014
Five Banks to Pay over $1.4 Billion in Penalties for Attempted Manipulation of Foreign Exchange

"The banks have been allowed to investigate themselves," one source familiar with the investigation told Reuters. "The investigated decide what they want to investigate, what they admit to, and how much they will pay."

Banks pay up and carry on after FX fines

Livingston nh 18:50 GMT November 12, 2014
Event Risk: Ukraine

Markets shouldn't respond to the same event because theory says the worst case should get priced in and we move along -- Ukraine is finished, the only question is how much Russia decides to take

The only financial issue is the outstanding debt -- that may stir the IMF (and how many Divisions does LaGarde have??) or some banks -- the NEW US Senate might impose broader Russian sanctions but "so what, who cares" -- bear baiting is dangerous pasttime

london red 18:31 GMT November 12, 2014
Event Risk: Ukraine

kiwi. trendline at 83. thats your near term pivot. back abv and they do 7950-80 (there has been no close abv 7974 fib). stay below and quickly down a figure within 24hrs id suggest.

GVI Forex 18:26 GMT November 12, 2014
Event Risk: Ukraine
Reply   
Will this again become a factor?

3:21 (UR) NATO: Seeing a significant buildup of Russian forces in Ukraine, watching large convoys moving into the region, forces are a severe threat to the ceasefire

- Source TradeTheNews.com

dc CB 17:41 GMT November 12, 2014
Five Banks to Pay over $1.4 Billion in Penalties for Attempted Manipulation of Foreign Exchange

STOX Train schedule:

The 11:00AM Europe Express has replaced the 10:30 POMO Express, which was taken out of service at the end of October.

The 2:15 and the 3:30 Afternoon Trains are still operations

The "Europe Is Closing" Ramp

london red 17:39 GMT November 12, 2014
loonie
Reply   
thru 11243 gave us the break higher, logical for it to act as support along with fib at 53. stop below 30 for 11294 target or below 11203 fib for 11320/30.

FW CS 17:39 GMT November 12, 2014
eurusd

Agreed 1.2438. a close below 1.2390 though even better for bears. That would open up the recent low again

london red 17:34 GMT November 12, 2014
eurusd

close below 2440 bearish, for targets see comments yest. cable 38.2 at 15786. below there suggests 155/156 in coming week even if they bounce first (where 15950/160 should cap before lower break).

Miami JN 17:12 GMT November 12, 2014
eurusd

Is anybody long dollars?

Is anybody short cable?

Paris ib 16:28 GMT November 12, 2014
Five Banks to Pay over $1.4 Billion in Penalties for Attempted Manipulation of Foreign Exchange

Yeah the whole market is rigged: bullion, interest rates, foreign exchange, stocks I suppose....

Rigging of Bullion Prices

NY Global Traders Association 16:20 GMT November 12, 2014
Five Banks to Pay over $1.4 Billion in Penalties for Attempted Manipulation of Foreign Exchange
Reply   

CFTC Orders Five Banks to Pay over $1.4 Billion in Penalties for Attempted Manipulation of Foreign Exchange Benchmark Rates. Citibank, HSBC, JPMorgan, RBS, and UBS Coordinated Trading with Other Banks in Private Chat Rooms in Their Attempts to Manipulate...

Five Banks to Pay over $1.4 Billion in Penalties for Attempted Manipulation of Foreign Exchange

GVI Forex john 16:17 GMT November 12, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off


12 November--  16:20 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Europe markets remain in a  RISK OFF posture as equities have remained soft throughout the session. U.S. shares are soft as well. The  GBP took a hit after the BOE took a more dovish slant than expected in its quarterly inflation Report. data It appears a U.K. rate hike has been postponed until late-2015 or even beyond.

In the Far East, equities ended mostly up. European bourses are closing lower. U.S. shares are down modestly. U.S 10-yr Note yields are lower. 10-yr bund yields are lower  Gilt yields are down sharply. European peripheral bond yields are mixed.

---

Paris ib 15:52 GMT November 12, 2014
One CB is NOT printing

I just read an article by Robert Fisk about the ISIS debacle in the Middle East... and the thing that got me is the Syrians fighting ISIS suggest that these ISIS characters are foreigners speaking... wait for it.... Chinese. At which point you just throw up your hands and say: what the h.ell is going on out there?

"�We often don�t understand them because they are foreigners speaking their own language,� the general said. When I asked him which language he heard most frequently, he replied. �Well, it�s very strange, but we think many of them are speaking in a language which is Chinese.� He was not joking."

I wonder when or if we will ever find out what is actually going on in the world.

As to the statistics and the data... who knows? Trade at your own risk.

Fisk

Brock 15:52 GMT November 12, 2014
price fixing article
Reply   
Marketwatch.com
FYI article about Banking FX fixing.
Article. .."What Forex Traders Didn't want 'numty's ' to know".

Interest read about fixing prices and secret chat rooms.

Paris ib 15:41 GMT November 12, 2014
One CB is NOT printing
Reply   
In this weird moment here is a little chart.

Printing by Central Banks

Livingston nh 15:08 GMT November 12, 2014
eurusd

Bunds JGB yields converging ?? maybe meet at 0.6, ha ha -- get out of hole, first stop digging // also UK and US 10 yr yields widening as UK races toward 2%

CBs are like the flat earth folks

GVI Forex john 15:01 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Wholesale Inventories September 2014

ALERT
+0.30% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.70% (r +0.60% ) prev.

---

TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

UK CH 14:50 GMT November 12, 2014
GBP
Reply   
Market must be stuffed long gbp hoping for a rally.

GVI Forex Blog 14:41 GMT November 12, 2014 Reply   
November 12, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, November 13. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Industrial Output, DE- final HICP, US- Weekly Jobless, JOLTS Survey, 30-yr Auction

GVI Forex Data Outlook for November 13, 2014

GVI Forex john 14:38 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



November 12, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, November 13. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- Industrial Output, DE- final HICP, US- Weekly Jobless, JOLTS Survey, 30-yr Auction

• Far East: JP- Industrial Output
• Europe: DE- final HICP.
• North America: US- Weekly Jobless, JOLTS Survey, Weekly Crude, 30-yr Auction.

GVI Forex john 14:36 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

GLOBAL-VIEW FORUMS ARE EASY TO USE!

Click on the title of any post and you can see the complete discussion of a topic.

For Example, Click on the BREAKING NEWS title and you will get all the data news, charts, calendar posts, etc. for the current week.

GVI Forex 14:21 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

09:12 (EU) ECB's Draghi: level of unemployment in Euro Zone remains unacceptably high; reiterates interest rates expected to remain low for a long period of time
- High unemployment is hampering growth
- ECB remains committed to expanding its balance sheet, and can take additional unconventional policy actions if we see medium term inflation expectations worsen

. - Source TradeTheNews.com

Prague viktor 14:15 GMT November 12, 2014
EUR/CHF
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

i think the swiss will give us the EURO dirction in case the 1,20 break or not

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:11 GMT November 12, 2014
eurusd

EURUSD dip may be the market anticipating Draghi's speech. No idea what the topic may be.

Tallinn viies 14:04 GMT November 12, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
sellers still able to cap euro near 200 hour simple moving average. thought earlier euro daily range 1,2440-1,2540 then now need to reconsider I guess.
1,2500 -1,2400 more likely.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:56 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

NEWS ALERT
TTN reports Draghi may be speaking at a conference in Rome so stay alert.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:53 GMT November 12, 2014
Wednesday's Market
Reply   
I posted this on GVI Forex and it feels like many have stepped back or some are sitting underwater after several days of chop.

Wednesday's Trading Outlook
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:47 GMT 11/12/2014 - My Profile
EURUSD keeps flirting above its 200 hour mva (1,2475) but still cannot establish above it,.

It feels like 1.24-1.25 is a no man's land with key levels lying outside of it as this pair consolidates. Keep watching 1.2450 as it splits this range and sets the bias.

Otherwise, looking at the FF and the market chop, it feels like the volatility this week has taken a toll unless I read it wrong.

NY JM 13:23 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Double bottom around 1.5811

Mtl JP 13:20 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



gbp's risk / opportunity around 1.58
initial 1.5720-ish on the downside

Mtl JP 13:13 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

JM keep a close eye on your ol' favorite - whole number, 1.58.
If that cracks suggest using fibs for targets / support

NY JM 12:41 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

There were bottom pickers at 1.5872-75, 1.5847-50 and then again at 1.5810-15. The last ones have the best chance as long as 1.5790-00+ trades but must be some underwater longs hoping for a bounce

EURGBP offsets have kept EURUSD above 1.2450 but upside so far capped by 1.2480.

Mtl JP 12:31 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



some GBP levels 4 u 2 pick

GVI Forex 12:31 GMT November 12, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System



EUR Pivots. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:

A Simple but Effective Trading System

GVI Forex john 12:15 GMT November 12, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


USD & EUR Pivots. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System

UK CH 12:12 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

What the aargh!! GBPUSD down 130 pips --- key support is around 1.5790 so maybe we see 1.5800-20 holds. Nice bloodbath.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 12:11 GMT November 12, 2014
promise number
Reply   
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

gbp/usd have promise number that will be shown at 1.5854 and 1.5898 . now is at 1.5820. entry buy and just only wait till that number be shown.lets prove it !!!

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:22 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

This is not a USD centric market

Notice how EURUSD caught a bid when GBP slipped following the BOE inflation report as EURGBP firmed

USDJPY has barely moved as GBPJPY slipped as well as other GBP crosses

GVI Forex Blog 10:54 GMT November 12, 2014
U.K. Employment Data in Line. EZ Industrial Production Rise.
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- 10-yr Auction

U.K. employment data were in line with estimates, but average earnings increased. The Bank of England inflation report seemed to keep the first rate hike pushed off to some time well in the future. Eurozone Industrial Production figures were stronger than expected.

U.K. Employment Data in Line. EZ Industrial Production Rise. Japan Tax Hike Postponement

GVI Forex 10:39 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

GBP slips following BOE inflation report

GVI Forex john 10:39 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

BOE Inflation Report

-- NEWS ALERT --
BOE Inflation Report
Lowers CPI forecasts. Keeps GDP growth forecast at 2.50%. Says market sees first rate hike in 3Q2015. When rates rise, the increase will be gradual.

Bank of England

---

TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 10:29 GMT November 12, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply   

12 November--  10:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Early in Europe markets remain are in a  RISK OFF posture as equities  sell-off into the return of U.S. banks today. The data calendar is generally light this week. There is lots of chatter that a U.K. rate hike has been postponed until late-2015 or beyond. .

In the Far East, equities ended mostly up.   European bourses are lower. U.S. share futures are down. U.S 10-yr Note yields are lower. 10-yr bund yields are lower  Gilt yields are down slightly. European peripheral bond yields are mixed.

---

Mtl JP 10:19 GMT November 12, 2014
Mark "Rock Star Debt Endures" Carney
Reply   
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney vows to halt future bailouts for failing banks

..."The meeting of the G20 nations in Brisbane begins on Saturday. During the two-day conference, world leaders including David Cameron and Barack Obama will discuss how to fix the international financial system."...
--
out with bail-outs , in with bail-ins ?

GVI Forex john 10:02 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Eurozone Industrial Output September 2014

NEWS ALERT

mm: +0.60% vs. +0.70% exp. vs. -1.80% (r -1.40% ) prev.
yy: +0.60% vs. -0.20% exp. vs. -1.90% (r-0.50% ) prev.

---

TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 09:42 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.K. Charts

U.K. Claimant Unemployment falls exactly expected. Unemployment steady. (Declining Claimant Count is stronger and vice-versa).

GVI Forex john 09:32 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.K. Employment Data September/October 2014

-- NEWS ALERT --
Claimants (000): -20.4 vs. -20.0 exp. vs. -18.6 (r 18.4) pre
Unemployment: 6.00%vs. 5.90% exp. vs. 6.00% pre
Avg Earnings (x-bonus): +1.30% v +1.10% exp. v +0.90% pre
Avg Earnings (+ Bonus): +1.00% v +0.90% v +0.70% prev.

---

TTN: Live News Special Offer

London London 09:20 GMT November 12, 2014
New signal - Try our 8 days free trial
Reply   
Sell EURAUD
Entry: Target: Stop:

We will send you signals to your phone/email/MT4

New Signal: Sell EUR/AUD @ 1.43182. at 2014.11.12
S.L - 55
T.P + 55

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Hong Kong AceTrader 08:50 GMT November 12, 2014
AceTrader Nov 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Reply   

12 Nov 2014 08:25GMT

GBP/USD - ....... Cable rebounded in tandem with euro after early retreat to 1.5904/05 in Asia and price rose to 1.5940 in early Europe before easing.
Investors remain on the sideline ahead of the release of a slew of jobs reports from UK and important UK inflation report at 09:30GMT and 10:30GMT respectively.
Stops located just above yesterday's high of 1.5945 are now in focus but more selling interest from various accounts is seen in the region of 1.5970-90.
On the downside, bids are placed at 1.5915/10 and then 1.5900 with stops emerging below 1.5880.

This morning the British pound tracked intra-day movements in the euro closely again on Tuesday.
Despite intra-day's rally from Asian low at 1.5835 to as high as 1.5945 in thin NY afternoon, price retreated to 1.5915 in Australian morning n then 1.5905 after Asian open on renewed broad-based strength in greenback n profit-taking ahead of the release of UK jobs reports and BoE's quarterly inflation report in European morning.

Looks like choppy consolidation below yesterday's high of 1.5945 would be seen in Asia as investors remain cautious ahead of the BoE's inflation report after The Sun Times report earlier the BoE is expected to make a downward revision to its growth forecasts n signal that interest rates will rise later than expected (as mentioned in our yesterday's MMN).
Before the inflation report, UK will release average earnings, jobless claims change n ILO unemployment rate, economists estimate the data will show signs of improvement in the UK's job market.

gc sf 08:45 GMT November 12, 2014
Russian warships bearing down on Australia
Reply   
"7News can reveal a fleet of Russian warships is steaming towards Australia - a defiant show of force from the super power, ahead of this weekend's G20 meeting of world leaders.

Leaving China this morning, Tony Abbott had precious little to say about his exchanges with Vladimir Putin at APEC.

However, the Prime Minister likely already knew of a developing security issue that could take his problems with President Putin to a whole new level.

7News has been told four Russian warships are bearing down on Australian waters, led by the guided missile Cruiser, Varyag, the flag ship of Russia's Pacific fleet.

Also heading south is the destroyer, Marshal Shaposhnikov - it's not short of firepower either.

Defence has sent a P3 Orion Surveillance Aircraft to shadow the ships and an Anzac class frigate, HMAS Stuart to the Coral Sea.

"Defence is monitoring Russian naval vessels that are currently transiting through international waters to the north of Australia," the Defence Force said in a statement."

Australia has being playing hardball towards Russia for weeks over the lack of help in the Ukraine Disaster .. anyway I thought this was worth noting ... ramp up in Aggression.

Syd 08:13 GMT November 12, 2014
DJ EUR/USD Correcting Higher -- Technical Analysis
Reply   
Intraday EUR/USD: Tuesday's strength allows for more corrective EUR gains to 1.2545. Tuesday's bounce from 1.2394 brings Monday's 1.2509 high back into the immediate picture, and a wave equality target at 1.2545 would be signalled on a break through 1.2509. However, last week's Market Profile chart indicates strong resistance at 1.2540, suggesting meeting the 1.2545 target might be step too far for corrective EUR bulls. Loss of 1.2424 would concern near-term bulls, exposing 1.2394 and leaving Friday's 26-month low at 1.2358 vulnerable.

Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Bearish.

Intraday USD/JPY: Undergoes a corrective setback from Tuesday's new seven-year high at 116.11. Support at 115.01 is under threat, and a downside break would create additional corrective downside risk to 114.57/114.64 and 114.23. However, Monday's higher low at 113.86 is secure for now. Recapturing ground above 115.78 and 115.88 would prompt a return to the 116.11 high, and broader-term bulls remain on track for 117.00 and the cluster of Fibonacci targets straddling the 120 level.

Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bullish.

Intraday GBP/USD: Tuesday's strength created a wave equality target at 1.5960, which needs to be met if GBP bulls are to strengthen Friday's 14-month low at 1.5792. Tuesday's bullish outside day low at 1.5837 could also provide the springboard for gains above 1.60, opening last week's high at 1.6021. The 1.5837 higher low defines scope for corrective weakness, and GBP bears would regain control on a break below 1.5837, exposing the 1.5792 low.

Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.

Intraday USD/CHF: Pressure is building on support at 0.9617, and a push lower is expected. Friday's bull trap high at 0.9741 will be strengthened on a break below 0.9617, threatening the Nov. 4 intra-wave higher low at 0.9580 and creating downside risk to 0.9540. However, the move lower is still considered corrective in nature. Respite would be achieved on a break into new session highs above 0.9662, although only a sustained break above Tuesday's high at 0.9700 would lift the tone.

Syd 08:11 GMT November 12, 2014
USD Back on the Defensive, JPY Volatile -- Market Talk
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The U.S. dollar eased lower overnight while the yen strengthened in a whippy Asia session amid uncertainty over whether Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will delay the planned rise in the sales tax. The Nikkei closed 0.4% higher. Up ahead UK unemployment (0930 GMT) and the Bank of England Inflation Report

Syd 08:01 GMT November 12, 2014
DJ Fed's Plosser: Raise Rates Soon or Risk Falling Behind the Curve
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NEW YORK--Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser Wednesday said the U.S. central bank needs to raise short-term interest rates "sooner rather than later," in a speech that praised the Fed's recent move closer toward ending its easy-money policy stance.

Raising rates off of the current near-zero levels "may allow us to increase rates more gradually as the data improve, rather than face the prospect of a more abrupt increase in rates to catch up with market forces, which could be the outcome of a prolonged delay in our willingness to act," Mr. Plosser said.

"Waiting too long to begin raising rates--especially waiting until we have fully met our goals for maximum employment or attained our inflation target of 2%--is risky because doing so could put monetary policy behind the curve," he said.

Mr. Plosser, a voting member of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, made his comments in the text of a speech prepared for delivery in London. He spoke in the wake of the recent gathering of the FOMC. Then, officials continued to pledge that short-term rates will stay at near-zero levels for a "considerable time" to come. But other changes in the statement suggested more optimism about the outlook, and many interpreted the statement as moving the Fed a step closer to raising rates. Most expect that to happen some time next year.

Mr. Plosser said in his speech that while he had wished the Fed would have made more substantial changes in the policy statement, it nevertheless was an improvement. "While the Committee retained the 'considerable time' language, it added clarity by stressing the fact that the decision to lift the interest rate target would be driven by the data," Mr. Plosser said.

In his remarks, which repeated themes common to his recent addresses, the policy maker was upbeat about the economy. He expects to see continued job-market progress and noted that gains seen so far in labor markets have turned out notably better than what Fed officials had been expecting. He said growth will likely come in above the economy's long-term potential, at a 3% rise through the second half of this year and over 2015.

Mr. Plosser shrugged off inflation that has been persistently falling under the central bank's 2% price target. The long-running weakness of inflation has alarmed some Fed officials who think that the central bank isn't doing enough to vigorously defend its inflation target.

"While inflation remains somewhat below the Fed's target, the gap seems to be gradually closing," the official said.

"Over the next quarter or two, headline inflation is likely to ease somewhat, reflecting the decline in the dollar price of oil and other temporary factors," Mr. Plosser said. But he added, "looking through such transitory changes in relative prices, the FOMC sees underlying inflation gradually moving toward its 2% target."

Getting rates up helps lower the chance of price-pressure problems. "Beginning to raise rates sooner rather than later reduces the chance that inflation will accelerate and, in so doing, require policy to become fairly aggressive with perhaps unsettling consequences," Mr. Plosser said.

GVI Forex Blog 06:17 GMT November 12, 2014 Reply   
- (JP) JAPAN OCT M2 MONEY SUPPLY M2 Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.0%E; M3 Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.5%E- (JP) JAPAN SEPT TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M: 1.0% V 0.8%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 96.6 V 94

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Yen hits new 7-year lows on fresh speculation of postponed sales tax hike and snap polls - Source TradeTheNews.com

tokyo ginko 06:15 GMT November 12, 2014
nzdjpy

close out nk 17150..squared

gc sf 05:06 GMT November 12, 2014
$yen
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seems like there are $YEN buyers in Tokyo on the dips - but everytime it bounces seems like there's a heavy seller in AUDYEN GBPYEN + EURYEN

the Nikkei is up but to be honest hardly moving -- so its all traders back and forth at the moment .. I was more hoping for a directional afternoon but that is not what we are getting.

GVI Forex Blog 03:28 GMT November 12, 2014 Reply   
The momentum in Dow 30 (17,614.90, +0.01%) has drained away considerably as it tries to

Morning Briefing : 12-Nov-2014 -0328 GMT

Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 02:50 GMT November 12, 2014
Euro

in previous post is stochastics, not stocks.

and you can see now the rate is in the tunnel sma now (1.2465)..waiting for a signal, but 12 sma still on rise..if 12 turns and rate drops below tunnel by maybe 13.would be solid signal short with other side of tunnel good stop..

Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 02:30 GMT November 12, 2014
Euro

well.it is momentum system based on moving averages.
The 1 hr tunnel is formed by constructing on a chart the 144 and 169 sma, on 1 hr chart. The rate movements are measured from the tunnel with 11-13 from the tunnel a signal and the turn in direction of the 12 would signal the direction.
In heavy trending markets like back in the days of rapid interest rate movement this would be quite accurate but now always subject to tweaks like most systems I presume. and several filters are used to signal a trade, stocks, and others.
Then the distance from the tunnel is measured in fibo numbers, i.e. 55 pips from the center of the tunnel is always a take some off place, and then 89, 144, �.

So here is original 1 hr tunnel method
http://www.fxbetter.biz/VegasTunnelMethod.pdf

I have added my own small changes along the way..from ema to sma and back again sometimes.,depending on steepness of trend..and other indicators..

there you have it.

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:04 GMT November 12, 2014
AceTrader Nov 12: Intra-Day News and Views (NZD/USD) & data to be released today
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Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

12 Nov 2014

NZD/USD - ...... Statement from RBNZ, quote:
not appropriate to ease LVR lending limits;
risk of house inflation pick-up from strong immigration;
NZ dlr above sustainable, justified level;
NZ dlr may fall further on tighter u.s. policy, China slowdown;
dairy payout fall may see more loan defaults;
further rises in short-term rates may be needed in future years;
says risk of sharp china slowdown will hurt NZ, AU economies.
will likely ease LVR limits, rather than removing them;
LVR limits still meant to be temporary, not permanent;
NZ dlr still unjustified, unsustainable;
exchange rate still has 'further to go';
extent of further NZ dlr fall may depend on U.S. dlr.
pleased that NZ dlr has come down 12 pct vs U.S. dlr;
neutral rates still seen around 4.5 pct;
interest rates still at a low level, still expansionary.

Wednesday will sell the release of Australia Wage price index, UK average earnings, claimant count, ILO unemployment, BoE inflation report, EU industrial production, U.S. redbook retail sales, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales.

Mtl JP 02:03 GMT November 12, 2014
USD/JPY

Japan stox rise, usdyen somewhat lower

Mtl JP 01:51 GMT November 12, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

because hope springs eternal perhaps numbnuts Abe's political popularity (mis)fortunes will do him in

NY BOB 01:42 GMT November 12, 2014
USD/JPY
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hi, Any comment on $/yen please. Where is it heading towards.

Philly JS 01:17 GMT November 12, 2014
Euro

Sanibel can you show a chart with that tunnel. If not then can you explain what it a?

dc CB 01:16 GMT November 12, 2014
Holiday???
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???
where did all the STOX Traders go?

yest had only 63M

is this Christmas Week??

SPY via Dave's

gc sf 00:47 GMT November 12, 2014
Forex News

LOL - nice one - but I thought those announcements were already in the market a little bit ago ?

needless to say it flipped the market around here prior to Tokyo... from resistance @50 to supported @50.

Even yesterday in what turned out a really bullish market in $YEN we tried to distribute the range initially .. so maybe it is better to sit it out for now and wait for the afternoon directional move.... unless the Nikkei just gets totally out of hand.

Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 00:40 GMT November 12, 2014
Euro

ok on 2420 long remaining 1/2 stopped at 2463.first half at 2490..

on to the next setup where euro has retraced back to 1 hr tunnel pausing at 144/169 sma�with 2450 possible short entry.
current 2461

GVI Forex Blog 00:03 GMT November 12, 2014
Forex News
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* Yen stays on the backfoot on talk of early election

* Sankei says election in December, delay in sales tax hike

* Dollar choppy in thin trade, SNB eyed as Swiss franc nears 1.20

FOREX-Yen undermined by Japan election talk, dollar choppy