nw kw 22:23 GMT November 14, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
QQQ-CHART STILL LEADES must be dividends if so s&p to up side and flight to safety aud,cat,nzd but I still need jpy to revers? same trading as 3years of so ago
london red 21:09 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade
no worries Cape Town, hope you made a few bucks off it
Cape Town LV 21:01 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade
It does not seem to me as if this pair is very concerned about the pivot levels.
Mtl JP 20:56 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade
haha... r u talking about sharks - FX sharks and great whites feeding ?
oh you one lucky dawg indeed
Cape Town LV 20:51 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade
Mtl JP 20:46 GMT 11/14/2014 - My Profile
LV - a sidenote: trading from CapeTown is enviable from the time zone point of view , straddling two busy trading session as you do.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Absolutely - and not only from that view point but also the View in Cape Town is enviable
Mtl JP 20:46 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade
LV - a sidenote: trading from CapeTown is enviable from the time zone point of view , straddling two busy trading session as you do.
Cape Town LV 20:45 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade
Thanks Red. I do study the levels you give and it is very usefull
london red 20:43 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade
Cape Town, today you had the perfect storm for eurgbp upside. weak gbp throughout the day and then later on a strong euro. nxt week the levels to watch will be the weekly trendline (nxt week 8007 currently 8019) and the prev high at 8065 with the 200 day ma just below at about 8054 on monday. on the downside, fib at 7951, daily trendline at 7925 and 7874 prev low.
its like any pair in that you have to watch the tech and use it to get you in the prevailing trend for the timeframe you're looking at.
Mtl JP 20:40 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade
how to trade EUR/GBP
-
- if you use technicals or just priceaction , take off the label on your instrument(s) to eliminate/limit some potential internal personal bias
- with 50+ instruments that your dealer offers to trade, no reason to force trade anything
- this is a whore business, dont get married to anything
Montreal Hesham 20:20 GMT November 14, 2014
Buy USD/CAD
Reply
Buy USDCAD
Entry: market Target: 1.17 and higher Stop:
It is time to buy this pair!
Cape Town LV 20:15 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade
Reply
I am trying to figure out how to trade EUR/GBP. I do not seem to figure out how this one ticks :(
Anybody here with experience who can give some advice please?
Mtl JP 20:06 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
I am told time is good to whack the mole as apparently "price is drifting at this point, the pro traders are off to play racquetball or tennis, or swimming, or whatever the hell it is they play"
Mtl JP 20:00 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
thx LV 19:58 ! add a billion or two pretty plz
Cape Town LV 19:58 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Mtl JP 19:21 GMT 11/14/2014 - My Profile
do I dare to put a few pips at sl risk shorting eurusd now for back under 1.2507
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
I short EUR @ 1.2540
SL on BE now
Mtl JP 19:39 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
yes , I like a short gbpusd s/term as long as it is under 1.570x
Mtl JP 19:33 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
it appears s spreading propaganda that OPEC will be cutting production
Mtl JP 19:30 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
the 5% risk should be R3 at 2572
london red 19:29 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
just watch cable here, its 30 points off the 15721 fib. a weekly close below was well on the cards here and a move thru will have them scrambling again.
london red 19:28 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
if you fancy countering the underlying moves, you can normally get away by fading a fresh high or low. yen for eg should yield something off 115.88.
london red 19:26 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
you should see 12503 at some stage on monday JP, but they had their balls chopped off and handed back to them, so this late on its paralysis mode and drift the way of least resistance.
Minneapolis DRS2 19:23 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
If you feel like gambling, sure...
Mtl JP 19:21 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
do I dare to put a few pips at sl risk shorting eurusd now for back under 1.2507
Mtl JP 19:13 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD
gc sf 18:38 thx bro
here is gaming for one such directional move
if it pans out ... 300 pips more or less
Paris ib 19:07 GMT November 14, 2014
GDP qq 3Q14 Report on Sunday - Importance?
The credibility of the inmates in the asylum will viewed against the prism of these Japanese GDP numbers. Which is kind of funny considering all these numbers are pretty much made up.
Paris ib 19:06 GMT November 14, 2014
GDP qq 3Q14 Report on Sunday - Importance?
Yeah but given the recent madness of the BoJ and the chances of a snap election, the confusion about whether they want to raise the sales tax and whether the Abe stuff has worked OR NOT it's going to be watched very closely.
GVI Forex john 18:57 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Weekly
Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
00:50 JP GDP qq 3Q14 0.50% -1.80%
MONDAY
08:00 EZ Draghi Testimomy in Brussels
14:15 US Ind Production manufacturing Output
TUESDAY
09:30 GB
CPI BOE
targets inflation
13:30 US PPI inflation measure
21:00 US TIC Net Flows capital flows
WEDNESDAY
04:30 JP
Bank of Japan policy
09:30 GB BOE Minutes
13:30 US
House
Starts/Permits
Housing data
18:00 FRB Fed Minutes
THURSDAY
01:45 CN
HSBC
flash PMI key sentiment measure
08:00 FR
MFG
PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:00 FR
SVC
PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:28 DE
MFG
PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:28 DE
SVC
PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:58 EZ
flash MFG PMI key sentiment measure
08:58 EZ
flash SVC PMI key sentiment measure
09:30 GB Ret Sls consumer demand
13:30 US
CPI
Fed targets inflation
13:30 US
Initial
Claims weekly jobless
14:45 US
Mfg
MKt PMI flash key sentiment measure
15:00 US
Existing
Homes Top Housing Statistics
15:30 US EIA Crude impacts crude prices
FRIDAY
13:30 CA
CPI
BOC targets CPI
14:00 EZ Draghi
FW CS 18:49 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD
Next euro resistance is 20 day ma which is also near last week's high. Qindex made a great call with his 1.2360 support
gc sf 18:38 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD
JP - we are coming into the end of the year
I don't think we will be watching distribution ranges too often it should be more directional moves with such important news upcoming.
If there was a batting cage down the street - I'd be going there right now to get warmed up -- this is going to be the "perfect storm" of trading.
all the best.
Gaza Ibiza 18:38 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Tallin, out of curiosity, why keep a stop loss 30 pips from the monthly high? TIA.
Mtl JP 18:35 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD
gc sf 18:30 // "tonne of money to be made" = noble idea
I wait for your timely trade ideas
tia
gc sf 18:34 GMT November 14, 2014
Eur/Jpy
GVI John - posted some charts showing the relationships between various markets
basically what it showed was that most markets moved opposite to $yen moves ... but the last 2-3 days
its all been "+" euryen audyen nzdyen and selling gbpusd
I'm not sure anyone can truly predict such things and say cause-effect
....... markets have more factors in them that that.
gc sf 18:30 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD
seems someone put a pretty big bet on Japanese GDP and FOMC for next week
it is not so much getting into trades that is ever the problem - but getting the liquidity to get out always proves more challenging.
a tonne of money to be made next week.... imo .. can't wait.
london red 18:17 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD
loonie 11243 breakout lvl and 11267 fib, ok to reach them as long as weekly close abv 11278. for remainder of session risk of downside ever present while under 113.
Belgrade Knez 18:03 GMT November 14, 2014
Eur/Jpy
Reply
Eur/Jpy will either follow eur/usd or usd/jpy. Is there a way to know which pair will it follow, or that is simple unpredictable?
Thank you.
london red 17:51 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD
cable close under 15721 on the week bearish. look to sell 15770 next week.
GVI Forex john 17:35 GMT November 14, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
14 November-- 17:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
European markets are ending the week in MIXED
RISK posture .Friday saw early better than
expected European GDP data. Final HICP
data for October were barely changed from the flash estimates. Dealers
continued to unwind GBP positions.
In the Far East, equities ended higher. European bourses ended mostly
higher. U.S. shares are mixed. U.S 10-yr note yield is down. 10-yr
bund yields are lower Gilt
yields are down. European peripheral bond yields are mixed to lower.
The
heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.
USA YV 17:22 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD
most definitely USD move in deference to all other majors; aside from the countermoves in Gold and Bonds equity markets worldwide are stagnant - very unusual.
Paris ib 17:20 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD
Reply
This does not look like a Euro move. This looks like a USD move and the USD is moving down. USD/JPY joining the party. Gold is now up 2.14%!! How long did that take?
The artificial calm on the U.S. bond market continues.
Paris ib 17:15 GMT November 14, 2014
Observations
USD/JPY starting to take a hit. Gold up nearly 2 percent. Russian purchases were well timed !!
Real Demand For Gold
London Misha 17:07 GMT November 14, 2014
Observations
Reply
Caution - Potential for a Key Reversal Up on EURUSD Daily Chart today!
Paris ib 17:05 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.
No traditional Japanese meals. There was an article in the New York Times the other day, but I can't find it. People I know already told me this.
Check out the Euro !!! And Gold. Meanwhile the prices of U.S. Government bonds look painted on. Wonder why?
Cheap Eats in Japan
PAR 17:03 GMT November 14, 2014
$ & �
Reply
Both getting crushed against �
london red 17:01 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Stops likely abv 12503 and 20. Likely to be a fast move there if first one gets done. Fibs at 60/70 with stop abv prev high 77 should work at least once but have to look to buy a dip next week if breached.
Paris ib 16:50 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.
Just checked Norway's corporate tax rate is 27% so that was a bit of bulls.hit information. Its private sector debt is up there with the best of them though. The Scandinavian private sector is labouring under a huge debt burden. Government debt in Norway is essentially zero, thanks to a well placed Iraqi emigre' - and they don't have the Euro or the EU - but I can't see myself moving to Norway ;-).
Artificially low interest rates have created a world awash in debt - just EVERYWHERE - so even a small shift higher in rateswill not be well received. Prepare for the fall out.
Paris ib 16:47 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.
PAR - I'm not sure that is true. I know people who go there often. Costs are not high. Homelessness has risen. Wages have taken a beating. What I would like to know is: is deflation really still happening or are costs going up like everywhere else?
Tallinn viies 16:42 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Reply
selling over 1,2490 with stop at 1,2540 should give potentially 200 pips before november is over
Mtl JP 16:40 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation
dc CB my earlier "300 point loss" (JP 19:21 Nov 13) SnP target still not invalidated, still in play.
Paris ib 16:38 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.
Yeah and once the market manipulation of the bond market fails - as it will - and rates rise, how does that leave you? High government debt countries will resort to open confiscation I suppose - tax of some kind - high private debt countries will see an implosion in private sector demand. Is there any country out there without a mountain of debt of some kind? Anyone know of any? Norway maybe? I hear they have corporate tax rate in the 70s in Norway. I have done no verification on that whatsoever. ;-)
David Stockman
dc CB 16:35 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation
It seems the machines are in full stop-hunting mode today. One wonders when regulators will sniff around these 'hunts' finally (just as they did in FX markets - which banks paid minimally for this week).
Extending beyond highs and lows by a tick or two each time and hinging around VWAP, the machines are running the show again today...
(chart)
Stop-Hunting Algos Dominate S&P 500 Today
Tallinn viies 16:34 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Reply
eurusd trading like day traders paradise
Paris ib 16:32 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.
I'd be interested to hear from Ginko if prices in Japan are actually falling or not. Japan was the deflationary poster child. Do they at least have low inflation over there?
Paris ib 16:29 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.
Bond yields in the 2-5 year area in the States have moved steadily higher over the last 14 months or so but there has been no real panic. We all know the manipulators are at work, the question is when / if they lose control of the market, what happens then? And I believe that at some point they WILL lose control of the bond market. Which would be real ugly.
Government Borrowing
Mtl JP 16:29 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation
euro still within 5 day 101 range
Paris ib 16:23 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.
CS - I don't think the Euro is the whole story, it's just part of something bigger. Personally I am watching bond yields more closely than the Euro.
london red 16:22 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation
price action of a market caught short as price retraced to pre data level. i seem to say this regularly but the market never gives you a second opportunity, if you believe it does then the price is going the other way. I suggested they would scramble if 40 broke. The trendline is now at 12457 and is the up/down pivot.
FW CS 16:22 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.
IB
such a place does not exist least none of the g20 countries. I agee with you -but anothet possibility is that big asian buy order could have been a big short covering profit taking. Euro still in recent range.
Paris ib 16:11 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation
YV - Yes I think so. I think that market manipulation has just about reached the limit of its capacity. Which makes this an extremely dangerous market. But I don't believe the narrative. I don't think inflation is low, interest rates have been held artificially low - which if they're not careful will lead to capital flight - and that won't be good for stocks. Currency markets are a mess which is why we have this move into holding physical gold. This is far from a benign financial market environment out there and the attempt to get the USD up seems like a self defeating policy to me. What do they think they will achieve? A massive influx of new capital. They gotta be kidding themselves. All they do is create a more hostile environment for U.S. business. Maybe that's the point? God knows. These people are insane.
USA YV 16:06 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation
...question for ib
USA YV 16:05 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation
agree with much of your recent post re: long term approach; are you suggesting that strong sentiment was a trigger for the unusual triumverate trade that occured an hour ago?
Paris ib 16:02 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation
ab - no idea but there is a h.ell of a lot going on at the moment.
"Beijing advanced its blueprint for "all-round connectivity" (in Xi's words) across Asia-Pacific - which implies a multi-pronged strategy. One of its key features is the implementation of the Beijing-based US$50 billion Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. That's China's response to Washington refusing to give it a more representative voice at the International Monetary Fund than the current, paltry 3.8% of votes (a smaller percentage than the 4.5% held by stagnated France)."
We won't know if the tanker is turning around until it's turned.
There is a power struggle going on. And us little guys just have to be careful not to get caught up in the cross fire. :-)
The Chinese Plan
hk ab 15:57 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation
Reply
Could it be due to the RMB sneaking out to HK starting from next week?
Paris ib 15:55 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Jay it's interesting to hear what the explanations are that are given out. The order does not explain the bounce in gold, the sell off on bond markets.....
It seems to me that a huge part of what is going on is a shift away from the Western domination of the global economy. Or at least an attempt to shift away. So we have the BRICs setting up their own development bank recently, the consistent move away from the use of the USD as a commercial currency and all the bilateral currency agreements being made by China, who is also purchasing all the deliverable Gold there is out there (though apparently Russia recently joined that train). And then we have the push back from the West or better Washington.... which (let's face it) has lived off Asian capital inflows for way too long. The readjustment might be painful but it is necessary.
Lame Duck
GVI Forex Blog 15:52 GMT November 14, 2014
Reply
November 14, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, November 17. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- GDP, EZ- Draghi, US- Industrial Production
GVI Forex Data Outlook for Novemer 17, 2014
GVI Forex john 15:49 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
November 14, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, November 17.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- GDP, EZ- Draghi, US- Industrial Production
- Far East: JP- GDP
- Europe: EZ- Draghi.
- North America: US- Empire PMI, Industrial Production.
Mtl JP 15:45 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
exactly what is a "drive buy order" ?
tia
PAR 15:45 GMT November 14, 2014
Manipulation
Reply
Forex market is more manipulated than before all those banks were fined .
Can Central Banks get fined ?
Mtl JP 15:43 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
the operation was successful (said the surgeon)
the patient died (said the patient file)
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:43 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
ib, just passing on what I heard - large drive buy order. maybe there is more to it but whatever the case, it caught the market with perfect timing.
Paris ib 15:39 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Real tradeable assets: that is bullion.
Tallinn viies 15:38 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Reply
well prepared attack .
GC gcm 15:32 GMT November 14, 2014
short dead
Central Kwun......got caught with your imitation gold pants down again......you never learn....Confucius say " Man with gold pants always get bend over by market"
Oh ....and that euro buy was mine...lol....enjoy it..
WIZARD OF oZ....
PAR 15:30 GMT November 14, 2014
short dead
Yellen or Bullard or Dudley or Fisher said something ?
Paris ib 15:30 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Jay that's a bit glib as an explanation. I think we have larger and darker forces at work here. We have clear and obvious attempts to manipulate the market and that's been true for a while now. The latest attempt being the madness of the Japanese authorities. But they are far from alone in this insanity. Sooner or later attempt to manipulate the market fail. And anyone who is reasonable is sitting here waiting for the fall out and hoping not to get burnt.
What I know: sooner or later lending to world governments will look incredibly stupid, inflation will become obvious despite the best efforts of the statistics departments, the price of real tradeable assets will rise reflecting real demand and a very real and widespread lack of confidence in the 'authorities'. Currency markets are likely to go mad. Stocks are at risk.
UK CH 15:30 GMT November 14, 2014
short dead
Look at eurgbp.....and eurjpy
PAR 15:26 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Rumors of SNB buying EUR before moving to negative interest rates . Better make some money on inside information ?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:20 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Large buy order in EURUSD out of Asia caught this market short.
USA YV 15:19 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Can I hear comments on the recent anomoly of Positive Sentiment news spiking bonds and gold while trashing USD? Thanks a bundle.
GVI Forex john 15:10 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
I never know what to make of the Sentiment surveys. If I were in manufacturing I feel it would be in my self interest to reply positively.
Maybe someone like nh has a good feel about whether sentiment surveys have much validity?
The U.S. election results just over a week ago were a very negative "sentiment survey"!
BD MI 15:05 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Is there news out?????????????????
GVI Forex john 15:03 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
University of Michigan-Conference Board Sentiment. Preliminary September Michigan Survey up strongly. Data subject to revision in about two weeks.
Central Kwun 14:56 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
shame on US! so fake
Mtl JP 14:49 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
and thus it is best ignored
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:47 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
U of M sentiment gets released to subscribers before we see it.
GVI Forex john 14:42 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
University of Michigan Survey up next. Market expecting a stronger number. This is the first reading for November.
GVI Forex john 14:40 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Pivot Point neutrality os 1.2467
Mtl JP 13:50 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
I show this week's euro low at 1.2393
blocks attempt at 1.2356 , the long-time low set the week before that
GVI Forex john 13:49 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
1.2377 pivot support #3. Below support #3 statistically unusual (less than 5% of the time over last three years).
london red 13:48 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
import prices just taken the froth off the retail sales. no signs of inflation. but growth and no inflation is better than neither of either.
FW CS 13:46 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Red
for me to maintain bearish eur must close below 1,2438. 1.2390 close more bearish.
Tallinn viies 13:45 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Reply
imho minimum target for today 1,2365.
london red 13:41 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
12419 is a sell level if they can rebound here. mkt will not move back abv 40 if going down. a break of 2395 target 2377 and 2363. abv 2440 and they scramble, probably trendline and 200 hour wont cap. its a scenario but unlikely and not worth considering its consequences unless into 2419-40 range.
GVI Forex john 13:39 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
U.S. Retail Sales. Stronger than expected.
Mtl JP 13:32 GMT November 14, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
john 12:50 - does eurchf S3 at 1.2008 have a 5% odds attached as well ?
TIA!
london red 13:24 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
hourly trendline at 2455 and 200 hour at 2461. they should act as a pivot on any miss rebound. if cleared they do some upside, but id still be a sell north of 125 as noted below.
london red 13:04 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
50% of 8050-7750 7915
23.6 of 8800-7750 8013
worth noting move up from 7750 to 8800 and back down to 7750. first low was 7764 the most recent 7766, so technically not a lower low. but need to move and stay abv 8013 before any possibility of a longer more drawn out rebound. the fundamentals probably wont allow for such a move though.
Mtl JP 13:04 GMT November 14, 2014
Eurozone GDP Data Better Than Expected. The U.S. Data Calendar is Active
the point , me thinks, is that MSM headlines are not screaming EZone in Recession. A secondary point , just slightly less important, is that EZ economy is doing a balancing act on the rim of a toilet. ECB self-proclaims its continued and maybe increased meddling (they call that "help") is essential.
Cape Town LV 12:55 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Thank you Red
Singapore SC 12:53 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Red can you tell us what charts you use for your fibs so we can follow your logic. tia
GVI Forex john 12:52 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
GLOBAL-VIEW FORUMS ARE EASY TO USE!
Click on the title of any post and you can see the complete discussion of a topic.
For Example, Click on the BREAKING NEWS title and you will get all the data news, charts, calendar posts, etc. for the current week.
london red 12:49 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
LV, currently eurgbp rebounding, has taken the trendline at 7925 today. we havent tested it yet today. may be there will be a test, then buy 25 with stop under fib and 100 day ma at 7915. LT trendline at 8019 and 23.6 fib at 8013 probably the main targets while trendline holds on a daily close. interim are 7987,94. below 144 month ema at 7908, you want to look start for selling opportunities for a recommencement of downtrend, confirmed for me under 7874.
london red 12:41 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
in addition, looks like euro options comfort zone is 12410-12490. anything outside of there should increase volatility. if we move outside of this zone but then return, youd expect the price to reach the other extreme.
Cape Town LV 12:37 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Hi Red, what is your view on EUR/GBP please?
london red 12:35 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
mkt probably pricing in a slight beat to retail sales. with the usdjpy at a new high they are going to want to move the euro to a new low on a good beat, particularly if yen can stay abv 116.40 odd.
on a miss, euro sales from 12490-12520 with stops abv 12530 should be safe. cable fib at 15721 is going to be hard to beat so sales from 157 upwards make sense. weekly close below 15721 points to 15507 support and bigger from 15350-15300. trendline just abv 152 fig. of course not today but in coming weeks.
on a side note nzdjpy has a couple of channel lines 91.97 and 92.13. the longterm trendline support (broken in july this year) comes in at 91.70 today.
Paris ib 12:20 GMT November 14, 2014
E-Money risk according to BoC
JP - yeah they sure don't want people to find away around the Central Bank monopoly.
Mtl JP 12:08 GMT November 14, 2014
E-Money risk according to BoC
Reply
E-Money Not Big Enough To Pose Risk, Says Bank Of Canada
- isn�t widespread enough to pose a risk to the financial system at this time
- use of cryptocurrencies carries risks including theft, fraud and the potential for money laundering
- widespread acceptance would also create issues for the central bank because transactions wouldn�t be denominated in Canadian dollars
- �This would reduce the bank�s ability to influence macroeconomic activity through Canadian interest rates,� Wilkins said. �Let me be clear, we are nowhere near this point today but if we were, it would be even more important to determine whether issuing e-money is a role that should be done by the central bank.� � Bloomberg
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:57 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
US retail sales data for October will provide the first official reading on consumer spending in Q4. Retail spending fell by 0.3% in September possibly due in part to an earlier than usual Labor day holiday. We forecast a 0.4% rebound in October, driven by stronger car sales. Dealer reports already suggest that these rose last month.
Lloyds Bank Daily Economic Outlook
Tallinn viies 11:55 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Reply
I think it is common sense that retail sales and consumer confidence should be better if oil is falling like stone from the sky.
front running numbers
gc sf 11:50 GMT November 14, 2014
Eurozone GDP Data Better Than Expected. The U.S. Data Calendar is Active
honestly from someone on the sidelines
it sure looks like someone already has the US Numbers for today - and they are expecting some decent results.
Gold Lower - GBP offered - Eur weakish - AUD haven't seen it this offered for some time -- $YEN doesn't seem any fear in buying it at all.
GVI Forex john 11:15 GMT November 14, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Reply
14 November-- 11:00 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Europe markets are in a MIXED
RISK posture early in Europe markets digest better than expected European GDP data. Final HICP
data for October were barely changed from the flash estimates. A focus today could once again be the SNB EURCHF 1.2000 peg.
In the Far East, equities ended higher. European bourses are mostly
lower. U.S. share futures are up. U.S 10-yr note yield is steady. 10-yr bund yields are lower Gilt
yields are down. European peripheral bond yields are mixed to lower.
The
heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.
Paris ib 10:30 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.
PAR - this whole thing is so ex Soviet Union style denial of reality that it's scary.
We got these Central Bankers no longer content with setting overnight rates, attempting to manipulate the bond market... and all the mainstream media PUNDITS calling for more from the 'authorities'. The idea that the 'authorities' do MORE scares the bejesus out of me.
PAR 10:26 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.
Every person has his own personal inflation profile depending on his lifestyle .
The official figures ( hedonic adjustments) are just made up for policy purposes ( to keep rates on government debt down- financial repression) and no longer reflect reality .
Paris ib 10:26 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
The officially deemed level of inflation out there bears no relation to the actual rise in prices. As for petrol prices, they are high and have not gone down. In Italy extra taxes have pushed them up to record levels. Deflation? Not a chance.
Of course as long as inflation is 'deemed' to be low 'real' GDP growth is higher than it would otherwise be. What's not to like?
GVI Forex john 09:32 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
German GDP data were as expected...
EZ GDP at the top of the hour
Paris ib 08:58 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.
Reply
"Well go buy something, whether at the grocery store, the drug store, the broom and mop store, and there is inflation everywhere. I have so many types of businesses so I buy everything from labor, to mops, to food, to shrimp, to stake and everything is more expensive. We are raising prices: that's why right now you pay more for an airline ticket, you pay more for a hotel room, you pay more for a pot of coffee. There is huge inflation going on right now." Tilman Fertitta
I think we all know this is true. It's true in Europe. It's true in Australia. I don't live in Japan or Asia so I couldn't tell you. I'd be interested to see if anyone out there has experienced the non-existant 'deflation' the Central Bankers and the MEDIA seem to be sooooo concerned about. From where I stand deflation is simply A LIE.
So what does this mean? It means the monetary policy is entirely divorced from inflation and probably from employment or even the real economy. Which brings back the idea that monetary policy is solely aimed at keeping the cost of rolling over existing government debt down (ie. manipulating bond yields) and possibly influencing the exchange rate (Japan take a bow). Central bank set rates are likely to remain lower than they ordinarily would but the power of the Central Banks to set rates is eroding. At some point we could see a disaster on government bond markets. And currency markets won't be far behind. The attempt to fool around with the price of real assets (Gold for example) is unlikely to dampen demand for the real thing regardless of where the price is (who believes prices any more anyhow?).
This attempt at manipulating financial market prices will only increase volatility and market instability in the long run.
Inflation? What inflation?
gc sf 08:46 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia
JP - we had the Russian Spammers invade GV for a while there - so you never know ! : )
Hong Kong AceTrader 08:45 GMT November 14, 2014
AceTrader Nov 14: Intra-Day News Market Moving and Views (EUR/USD)
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Nov 2014 08:08GMT
EUR/USD - ....... The release of slight better-than-expected German GDP triggered intra-day broad-based short covering in the euro earlier. Reuters reported the German economy grew by just 0.1% in the 3rd quarter of 2014, narrowly avoiding a recession thanks to a strong rise in consumer spending n small boost from foreign trade.
Some economists had feared Europe's largest economy would sink into recession in the July-September period after a 2nd quarter contraction, but Germany managed to match a consensus forecast for 0.1% growth in a Reuters poll.
The Statistics Office said the main positive impulse came from private households "which sharply increased their spending" while foreign trade provided "a slight positive effect on GDP".
Investments declined overall, the Statistics Office said, with investment in equipment declining sharply, investment in construction down slightly and a clear reduction in inventories.
Euro pares intra-day losses as early release of slightly better-than-expected French & German GDP triggered minor short-covering in the euro. As mentioned in previous update, st specs sold the euro at Asian open in anticipation of downbeat GDP readings from France, Germany, Italy & then EZ.
Intra-day decline accelerated in post-Tokyo lunch session on dovish comments by ECB Council member Noyer, euro fell to 1.2427 ahead of European open b4 rebounding to 1.2456 after the German GDP data.
Range trading above 1.2427 is expected until release of Italy's GDP & later EZ GDP at 18:00GMT.
Offers are tipped at 1.2455/60 n more above with fairly stops reported above 1.2510.
Bids are noted at 1.2430-20 with stops below 1.2390.
PAR 08:31 GMT November 14, 2014
France - Stock Markets
Reply
France growth above expectations . Fueled by government spending. Not exactly what Europe wants .
For French stockmarket Hollande has been an excellent president , giving plenty of perks and taxbreaks to stock lised companies.
Also Obama has been among the best presidents ever for the US stockmarkets and his beloved Wall Street .
PAR 07:29 GMT November 14, 2014
GERMANY
Reply
Germany Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) came in at 1.2%, above expectations (1%) in 3Q
2014-11-14 07:00 GMT - FXStreet.com
Mtl JP 04:41 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia
gc sf 02:48 / 100% odds it is not going to happen
gc sf 02:48 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia
I suppose you guys will be the first too know if I see Russian Troops storming the beaches here in Surfers Paradise lol.
gc sf 02:44 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia
that's good I'm glad there is interest in Asia - I know it can be real boring many days . but sometimes the markets make more sense during the trading times.
we are now seeing about +70 bounce in Nikkei and $yen held 78-80 which is normal support in bullish $yen markets once we test above 10.
canmore clops 02:39 GMT November 14, 2014
gc sf
Reply
gc sf >>> even though I am on the other side of the world, I probably look forward to your posts, more than anybody else here. Not that I am dishing everybody else, or anybody else, just from my point of view I get the most benefit from yours. I have been wanting to thank you for a long time now. So THANK YOU
nw kw 02:32 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia
I have jpy strength slightly
might not play its strength until yen rebalanced
nw kw 02:23 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia
jp- have look at poss trade
yen rebalancing/gbp/jpy --aud/jpy--gbp/aud
Mtl JP 02:08 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia
Japan stocks probably need to see more weakness in yen
nw kw 02:07 GMT November 14, 2014
Correlation
directional imbalance building in GBP, monitoring for the soft side move
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:02 GMT November 14, 2014
AceTrader Nov 14: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Nov 2014 01:32GMT
USD/JPY - ...... The pair continues to take centre stage in hectic Tokyo trading as comments by Japan's ECONMIN Amari (see early MMN) led to renewed broad-based selling in the yen, intra-day gain to fresh 7-year highs in the Nikkei (N255 index rose to 17520) boosted risk sentiment and pushed price to a fresh 7-year peak at 116.20 after tripping stops above 115.90, then 116.10.
However, intra-day retreat in the Nikkei has prompted liquidation in speculative longs, dlr retreated to 115.89, suggesting choppy trading below 116.20 would be seen.
Initial bids are noted at 115.90-85 with stops below there, more buying interest is reported at 115.60-55 with stops below yesterday's NY low at 115.21.
On the upside, offers are reported at 116.10/20 and more at 116.40/50.
Statement from Japan's Chief Gov't Spokesman Yoshihide Suga (Chief Cabinet Sec) says Japan economy in recovery trend through gov't's economic policies.
While Japan FinMin Aso comment:
economy continuing a moderate recovery on the whole;
gov't must continue with efforts on fiscal reform;
private consumption stalling but employment, incomes investment improving; it would be become hard to halve primary budget deficit in FY2015/16 as planned if sales tax hike delayed.'
Japan sales tax hike is delayed, gov't may need to consider if economic stimulus steps are needed;
rising sales tax and delaying sales tax hike both carry risks, up to gov't to take steps to reduce these risks;
if Abe delays sales tax hike, he will do utmost to achieve primary budget deficit reduction targets;
not possible Abe to delay sales tax hike indefinitely; cannot allow trust in Japanese gov't debt to be damaged.'
Friday will see the release of France GDP, Germany GDP, Italy GDP, UK construction output, EU GDP, CPI, U.S. retail sales, export prices, import prices, business inventories, U. of Michigan sentiment and Canada manufacturing sales.
gc sf 01:51 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia
for sure - the early range - and then the afternoon move
today we just got out of sync here - due to Nikkei - which happened once before.
its midday for me time wise - so seems we have a lot more London/NYK traders in the Forum... so wait and see what you guys think later on.
FW CS 01:43 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia
St
early Asia seems always been this way. Biggest moves seem to start in london open.
gc sf 01:40 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia
If no-one is dealing in Asia - I won't bother posting updates .. for those not having Nikkei prices
but its down 220 from the high now - and as you can see $yen died out quickly.
gc sf 01:13 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia
Nikkei down 160 from high now .. new low
gc sf 00:34 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia
so looks like the demand was there -- but the problem they are having is the Nikkei is down 100 from the high
pity didn't dip off the bat - but thats the way it is sometimes.
FW CS 00:27 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Viies euro due for correction north. If we go down now then it might be the last down wave down before a longer term bottom.
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