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Forex Forum Archive for 11/14/2014

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nw kw 22:23 GMT November 14, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

QQQ-CHART STILL LEADES must be dividends if so s&p to up side and flight to safety aud,cat,nzd but I still need jpy to revers? same trading as 3years of so ago

GVI Forex john 21:31 GMT November 14, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

CLOSING LEVELS...


london red 21:09 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade

no worries Cape Town, hope you made a few bucks off it

Cape Town LV 21:01 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade

It does not seem to me as if this pair is very concerned about the pivot levels.

GVI Forex john 20:58 GMT November 14, 2014
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Cape Town LV 20:58 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade

Hahaha

Mtl JP 20:56 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade

haha... r u talking about sharks - FX sharks and great whites feeding ?
oh you one lucky dawg indeed

Cape Town LV 20:51 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade

Mtl JP 20:46 GMT 11/14/2014 - My Profile
LV - a sidenote: trading from CapeTown is enviable from the time zone point of view , straddling two busy trading session as you do.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Absolutely - and not only from that view point but also the View in Cape Town is enviable

GVI Forex john 20:48 GMT November 14, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report
Reply   

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions



Click on chart for COT Details






Click on chart for COT Details



Mtl JP 20:46 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade

LV - a sidenote: trading from CapeTown is enviable from the time zone point of view , straddling two busy trading session as you do.

Cape Town LV 20:45 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade

Thanks Red. I do study the levels you give and it is very usefull

london red 20:43 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade

Cape Town, today you had the perfect storm for eurgbp upside. weak gbp throughout the day and then later on a strong euro. nxt week the levels to watch will be the weekly trendline (nxt week 8007 currently 8019) and the prev high at 8065 with the 200 day ma just below at about 8054 on monday. on the downside, fib at 7951, daily trendline at 7925 and 7874 prev low.
its like any pair in that you have to watch the tech and use it to get you in the prevailing trend for the timeframe you're looking at.

Cape Town LV 20:43 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade

Thanks JP. I will stay single then

Mtl JP 20:40 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade

how to trade EUR/GBP
-
- if you use technicals or just priceaction , take off the label on your instrument(s) to eliminate/limit some potential internal personal bias
- with 50+ instruments that your dealer offers to trade, no reason to force trade anything
- this is a whore business, dont get married to anything

Montreal Hesham 20:20 GMT November 14, 2014
Buy USD/CAD
Reply   
Buy USDCAD
Entry: market Target: 1.17 and higher Stop:

It is time to buy this pair!

Cape Town LV 20:15 GMT November 14, 2014
EUR/GBP- how to trade
Reply   
I am trying to figure out how to trade EUR/GBP. I do not seem to figure out how this one ticks :(
Anybody here with experience who can give some advice please?

Mtl JP 20:06 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

I am told time is good to whack the mole as apparently "price is drifting at this point, the pro traders are off to play racquetball or tennis, or swimming, or whatever the hell it is they play"

Mtl JP 20:00 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

thx LV 19:58 ! add a billion or two pretty plz

Cape Town LV 19:58 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

Mtl JP 19:21 GMT 11/14/2014 - My Profile
do I dare to put a few pips at sl risk shorting eurusd now for back under 1.2507
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
I short EUR @ 1.2540
SL on BE now

Mtl JP 19:39 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

yes , I like a short gbpusd s/term as long as it is under 1.570x

Mtl JP 19:33 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

it appears s spreading propaganda that OPEC will be cutting production

Mtl JP 19:30 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

the 5% risk should be R3 at 2572

london red 19:29 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

just watch cable here, its 30 points off the 15721 fib. a weekly close below was well on the cards here and a move thru will have them scrambling again.

london red 19:28 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

if you fancy countering the underlying moves, you can normally get away by fading a fresh high or low. yen for eg should yield something off 115.88.

london red 19:26 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

you should see 12503 at some stage on monday JP, but they had their balls chopped off and handed back to them, so this late on its paralysis mode and drift the way of least resistance.

Minneapolis DRS2 19:23 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

If you feel like gambling, sure...

Mtl JP 19:21 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

do I dare to put a few pips at sl risk shorting eurusd now for back under 1.2507

Mtl JP 19:15 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD

opps .. not pips. points.

Mtl JP 19:13 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD



gc sf 18:38 thx bro
here is gaming for one such directional move
if it pans out ... 300 pips more or less

Paris ib 19:07 GMT November 14, 2014
GDP qq 3Q14 Report on Sunday - Importance?

The credibility of the inmates in the asylum will viewed against the prism of these Japanese GDP numbers. Which is kind of funny considering all these numbers are pretty much made up.

Paris ib 19:06 GMT November 14, 2014
GDP qq 3Q14 Report on Sunday - Importance?

Yeah but given the recent madness of the BoJ and the chances of a snap election, the confusion about whether they want to raise the sales tax and whether the Abe stuff has worked OR NOT it's going to be watched very closely.

GVI Forex john 19:02 GMT November 14, 2014
GDP qq 3Q14 Report on Sunday - Importance?

its an important number but it is not likely to impact BOJ policy at this juncture.

GVI Forex john 18:57 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
00:50 JP GDP qq 3Q14 0.50% -1.80%
MONDAY
08:00 EZ Draghi Testimomy in Brussels
14:15 US Ind Production manufacturing Output
TUESDAY
09:30 GB CPI BOE targets inflation
13:30 US PPI inflation measure
21:00 US TIC Net Flows  capital flows
WEDNESDAY
04:30 JP Bank of Japan  policy
09:30 GB BOE Minutes
13:30 US House Starts/Permits Housing data
18:00 FRB Fed Minutes
THURSDAY
01:45 CN HSBC flash PMI key sentiment measure
08:00 FR MFG PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:00 FR SVC PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:28 DE MFG PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:28 DE SVC PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:58 EZ flash MFG PMI key sentiment measure
08:58 EZ flash SVC PMI key sentiment measure
09:30 GB Ret Sls consumer demand
13:30 US CPI Fed targets inflation
13:30 US Initial Claims weekly jobless
14:45 US Mfg MKt PMI flash key sentiment measure
15:00 US Existing Homes Top Housing Statistics
15:30 US EIA Crude impacts crude prices
FRIDAY  
13:30 CA CPI BOC targets CPI
14:00 EZ Draghi

Cape Town LV 18:52 GMT November 14, 2014
GDP qq 3Q14 Report on Sunday - Importance?
Reply   
How important is the GDP qq 3Q14 report on Sunday?

FW CS 18:49 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD

Next euro resistance is 20 day ma which is also near last week's high. Qindex made a great call with his 1.2360 support

gc sf 18:38 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD

JP - we are coming into the end of the year

I don't think we will be watching distribution ranges too often it should be more directional moves with such important news upcoming.

If there was a batting cage down the street - I'd be going there right now to get warmed up -- this is going to be the "perfect storm" of trading.

all the best.

Gaza Ibiza 18:38 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

Tallin, out of curiosity, why keep a stop loss 30 pips from the monthly high? TIA.

Mtl JP 18:35 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD

gc sf 18:30 // "tonne of money to be made" = noble idea
I wait for your timely trade ideas
tia

gc sf 18:34 GMT November 14, 2014
Eur/Jpy

GVI John - posted some charts showing the relationships between various markets

basically what it showed was that most markets moved opposite to $yen moves ... but the last 2-3 days

its all been "+" euryen audyen nzdyen and selling gbpusd

I'm not sure anyone can truly predict such things and say cause-effect
....... markets have more factors in them that that.

gc sf 18:30 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD

seems someone put a pretty big bet on Japanese GDP and FOMC for next week

it is not so much getting into trades that is ever the problem - but getting the liquidity to get out always proves more challenging.

a tonne of money to be made next week.... imo .. can't wait.

london red 18:17 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD

loonie 11243 breakout lvl and 11267 fib, ok to reach them as long as weekly close abv 11278. for remainder of session risk of downside ever present while under 113.

Belgrade Knez 18:03 GMT November 14, 2014
Eur/Jpy
Reply   

Eur/Jpy will either follow eur/usd or usd/jpy. Is there a way to know which pair will it follow, or that is simple unpredictable?

Thank you.

Mtl JP 17:55 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD

usdcad about to test 1.1280 , previous low

london red 17:51 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD

cable close under 15721 on the week bearish. look to sell 15770 next week.

Paris ib 17:42 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD

The Pound did worse.

Brock 17:37 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD

DXY headed south some today.

GVI Forex john 17:35 GMT November 14, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk


14 November--  17:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
European markets are ending the week in  MIXED RISK posture .Friday saw early better than expected European GDP data. Final HICP data for October were barely changed from the flash estimates. Dealers continued to unwind GBP positions.

In the Far East, equities ended higher. European bourses ended mostly higher. U.S. shares are mixed. U.S 10-yr note yield is down. 10-yr bund yields are lower  Gilt yields are down. European peripheral bond yields are mixed to lower.




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


GVI Forex Blog 17:30 GMT November 14, 2014
Week Ahead
Reply   
MPC and FOMC minutes watched for further hints on policy
•US and UK data to show inflation tame but activity continuing to strengthen
•Q3 Japanese GDP growth to fuel debate on next sales tax hike

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - CENTRAL BANKS TO WEIGH LOW INFLATION AGAINST SIGNS OF RISING ACTIVITY

USA YV 17:22 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD

most definitely USD move in deference to all other majors; aside from the countermoves in Gold and Bonds equity markets worldwide are stagnant - very unusual.

Paris ib 17:20 GMT November 14, 2014
Scramble out of the USD
Reply   
This does not look like a Euro move. This looks like a USD move and the USD is moving down. USD/JPY joining the party. Gold is now up 2.14%!! How long did that take?

The artificial calm on the U.S. bond market continues.

Paris ib 17:15 GMT November 14, 2014
Observations

USD/JPY starting to take a hit. Gold up nearly 2 percent. Russian purchases were well timed !!

Real Demand For Gold

Paris ib 17:10 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

Here is the article. So maybe Japan is the only place in the world with real live falling costs????? Who knows? Ginko u there?

Eat Cheap in Tokyo

London Misha 17:07 GMT November 14, 2014
Observations
Reply   
Caution - Potential for a Key Reversal Up on EURUSD Daily Chart today!

Paris ib 17:05 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

No traditional Japanese meals. There was an article in the New York Times the other day, but I can't find it. People I know already told me this.

Check out the Euro !!! And Gold. Meanwhile the prices of U.S. Government bonds look painted on. Wonder why?

Cheap Eats in Japan

PAR 17:03 GMT November 14, 2014
$ & £
Reply   
Both getting crushed against €

PAR 17:01 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

McDonalds ?

london red 17:01 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

Stops likely abv 12503 and 20. Likely to be a fast move there if first one gets done. Fibs at 60/70 with stop abv prev high 77 should work at least once but have to look to buy a dip next week if breached.

Paris ib 16:56 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

Yeah but you can eat out in Tokyo for less than 5 euros.

Mtl JP 16:54 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation

manipulation: "to control or play upon by artful, unfair, or insidious means especially to one's own advantage" - webster

"We are Canada's central bank. We work to preserve the value of money by keeping inflation low and stable." - Bank of Canada, home page.
-
SCC establishes duty of honesty between contracting parties -

the Supreme Court of Canada today established a general doctrine of good faith between parties and a specific duty of honesty — opening up the civil courts to a potential wave of lawsuits based on perceived deceptions. .../..
--
maybe a crowd-fund cause ?

PAR 16:53 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

Room in Sheraton Tokyo. € 782 for one night . Thats expensive

Paris ib 16:50 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

Just checked Norway's corporate tax rate is 27% so that was a bit of bulls.hit information. Its private sector debt is up there with the best of them though. The Scandinavian private sector is labouring under a huge debt burden. Government debt in Norway is essentially zero, thanks to a well placed Iraqi emigre' - and they don't have the Euro or the EU - but I can't see myself moving to Norway ;-).

Artificially low interest rates have created a world awash in debt - just EVERYWHERE - so even a small shift higher in rateswill not be well received. Prepare for the fall out.

Paris ib 16:47 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

PAR - I'm not sure that is true. I know people who go there often. Costs are not high. Homelessness has risen. Wages have taken a beating. What I would like to know is: is deflation really still happening or are costs going up like everywhere else?

PAR 16:43 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

After 25 years of deflation Tokyo is still one of the most expensive cities in the world .

Tallinn viies 16:42 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
selling over 1,2490 with stop at 1,2540 should give potentially 200 pips before november is over

Mtl JP 16:40 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation

dc CB my earlier "300 point loss" (JP 19:21 Nov 13) SnP target still not invalidated, still in play.

Paris ib 16:38 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

Yeah and once the market manipulation of the bond market fails - as it will - and rates rise, how does that leave you? High government debt countries will resort to open confiscation I suppose - tax of some kind - high private debt countries will see an implosion in private sector demand. Is there any country out there without a mountain of debt of some kind? Anyone know of any? Norway maybe? I hear they have corporate tax rate in the 70s in Norway. I have done no verification on that whatsoever. ;-)

David Stockman

dc CB 16:35 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation

It seems the machines are in full stop-hunting mode today. One wonders when regulators will sniff around these 'hunts' finally (just as they did in FX markets - which banks paid minimally for this week).

Extending beyond highs and lows by a tick or two each time and hinging around VWAP, the machines are running the show again today...

(chart)

Stop-Hunting Algos Dominate S&P 500 Today

Tallinn viies 16:34 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
eurusd trading like day traders paradise

Mtl JP 16:32 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

the "something bigger" is debt on banks and finoutfits books
bad debt that is.
simmering, growing, enduring...

Paris ib 16:32 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

I'd be interested to hear from Ginko if prices in Japan are actually falling or not. Japan was the deflationary poster child. Do they at least have low inflation over there?

GVI Forex Blog 16:29 GMT November 14, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
Data out this morning showed US retail sales rose 0.3% in October, a nice recovery after September's 0.3% contraction. October import prices posted their largest monthly decline in more than two years on thanks to the continuing drop in crude oil prices.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Mixed Econ Data Drives Choppy Trading in Europe and the US

Paris ib 16:29 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

Bond yields in the 2-5 year area in the States have moved steadily higher over the last 14 months or so but there has been no real panic. We all know the manipulators are at work, the question is when / if they lose control of the market, what happens then? And I believe that at some point they WILL lose control of the bond market. Which would be real ugly.

Government Borrowing

Mtl JP 16:29 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation



euro still within 5 day 101 range

Paris ib 16:23 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

CS - I don't think the Euro is the whole story, it's just part of something bigger. Personally I am watching bond yields more closely than the Euro.

london red 16:22 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation

price action of a market caught short as price retraced to pre data level. i seem to say this regularly but the market never gives you a second opportunity, if you believe it does then the price is going the other way. I suggested they would scramble if 40 broke. The trendline is now at 12457 and is the up/down pivot.

FW CS 16:22 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

IB
such a place does not exist least none of the g20 countries. I agee with you -but anothet possibility is that big asian buy order could have been a big short covering profit taking. Euro still in recent range.

Paris ib 16:16 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

And I would really like to know from the forum is ANYONE living in a low inflation / falling price environment out there?

Anyone?

Paris ib 16:11 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation

YV - Yes I think so. I think that market manipulation has just about reached the limit of its capacity. Which makes this an extremely dangerous market. But I don't believe the narrative. I don't think inflation is low, interest rates have been held artificially low - which if they're not careful will lead to capital flight - and that won't be good for stocks. Currency markets are a mess which is why we have this move into holding physical gold. This is far from a benign financial market environment out there and the attempt to get the USD up seems like a self defeating policy to me. What do they think they will achieve? A massive influx of new capital. They gotta be kidding themselves. All they do is create a more hostile environment for U.S. business. Maybe that's the point? God knows. These people are insane.

USA YV 16:06 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation

...question for ib

Paris ib 16:06 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

The Russians are moving away from holding currency reserves, as are the Chinese.... obviously the confidence in global paper money is not high.

Russia buys Gold

USA YV 16:05 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation

agree with much of your recent post re: long term approach; are you suggesting that strong sentiment was a trigger for the unusual triumverate trade that occured an hour ago?

Paris ib 16:02 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation

ab - no idea but there is a h.ell of a lot going on at the moment.

"Beijing advanced its blueprint for "all-round connectivity" (in Xi's words) across Asia-Pacific - which implies a multi-pronged strategy. One of its key features is the implementation of the Beijing-based US$50 billion Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. That's China's response to Washington refusing to give it a more representative voice at the International Monetary Fund than the current, paltry 3.8% of votes (a smaller percentage than the 4.5% held by stagnated France)."

We won't know if the tanker is turning around until it's turned.

There is a power struggle going on. And us little guys just have to be careful not to get caught up in the cross fire. :-)

The Chinese Plan

Mtl JP 16:01 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

ib , PAR... comedy break for your stress relief:

Attorney-general nominee Lynch could face questions on prosecuting banks

..."questions not only about whether banks are too big to jail but whether individual prosecutions will be pursued."...
-
jail banks ?

hk ab 15:57 GMT November 14, 2014
manipulation
Reply   
Could it be due to the RMB sneaking out to HK starting from next week?

Paris ib 15:55 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Jay it's interesting to hear what the explanations are that are given out. The order does not explain the bounce in gold, the sell off on bond markets.....

It seems to me that a huge part of what is going on is a shift away from the Western domination of the global economy. Or at least an attempt to shift away. So we have the BRICs setting up their own development bank recently, the consistent move away from the use of the USD as a commercial currency and all the bilateral currency agreements being made by China, who is also purchasing all the deliverable Gold there is out there (though apparently Russia recently joined that train). And then we have the push back from the West or better Washington.... which (let's face it) has lived off Asian capital inflows for way too long. The readjustment might be painful but it is necessary.

Lame Duck

GVI Forex Blog 15:52 GMT November 14, 2014 Reply   
November 14, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, November 17. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- GDP, EZ- Draghi, US- Industrial Production

GVI Forex Data Outlook for Novemer 17, 2014

GVI Forex john 15:49 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



November 14, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, November 17. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- GDP, EZ- Draghi, US- Industrial Production

  • Far East: JP- GDP
  • Europe: EZ- Draghi.
  • North America: US- Empire PMI, Industrial Production.


Mtl JP 15:45 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

exactly what is a "drive buy order" ?
tia

PAR 15:45 GMT November 14, 2014
Manipulation
Reply   
Forex market is more manipulated than before all those banks were fined .

Can Central Banks get fined ?

Mtl JP 15:43 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

the operation was successful (said the surgeon)
the patient died (said the patient file)

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:43 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

ib, just passing on what I heard - large drive buy order. maybe there is more to it but whatever the case, it caught the market with perfect timing.

Paris ib 15:39 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Real tradeable assets: that is bullion.

Tallinn viies 15:38 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
well prepared attack .

GC gcm 15:32 GMT November 14, 2014
short dead

Central Kwun......got caught with your imitation gold pants down again......you never learn....Confucius say " Man with gold pants always get bend over by market"

Oh ....and that euro buy was mine...lol....enjoy it..
WIZARD OF oZ....

GVI Forex john 15:31 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)



ALERT
+40 vs. +35 exp vs. +91 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

PAR 15:30 GMT November 14, 2014
short dead

Yellen or Bullard or Dudley or Fisher said something ?

Paris ib 15:30 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Jay that's a bit glib as an explanation. I think we have larger and darker forces at work here. We have clear and obvious attempts to manipulate the market and that's been true for a while now. The latest attempt being the madness of the Japanese authorities. But they are far from alone in this insanity. Sooner or later attempt to manipulate the market fail. And anyone who is reasonable is sitting here waiting for the fall out and hoping not to get burnt.

What I know: sooner or later lending to world governments will look incredibly stupid, inflation will become obvious despite the best efforts of the statistics departments, the price of real tradeable assets will rise reflecting real demand and a very real and widespread lack of confidence in the 'authorities'. Currency markets are likely to go mad. Stocks are at risk.

UK CH 15:30 GMT November 14, 2014
short dead

Look at eurgbp.....and eurjpy

Central Kwun 15:27 GMT November 14, 2014
short dead
Reply   
what happened!!!

PAR 15:26 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Rumors of SNB buying EUR before moving to negative interest rates . Better make some money on inside information ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:20 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Large buy order in EURUSD out of Asia caught this market short.

USA YV 15:19 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Can I hear comments on the recent anomoly of Positive Sentiment news spiking bonds and gold while trashing USD? Thanks a bundle.

GVI Forex john 15:10 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

I never know what to make of the Sentiment surveys. If I were in manufacturing I feel it would be in my self interest to reply positively.


Maybe someone like nh has a good feel about whether sentiment surveys have much validity?


The U.S. election results just over a week ago were a very negative "sentiment survey"!

BD MI 15:05 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Is there news out?????????????????

GVI Forex john 15:03 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

University of Michigan-Conference Board Sentiment. Preliminary September Michigan Survey up strongly. Data subject to revision in about two weeks.





GVI Forex john 15:01 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Business Inventories September 2014




ALERT
+0.30% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.20% (r +0.10%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Central Kwun 14:56 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

shame on US! so fake

GVI Forex john 14:55 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index November 2014





NEWS ALERT
89.4 vs. 87.5 exp. vs. 86.9 prev


RELEASE: Index of Consumer Sentiment



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 14:49 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

and thus it is best ignored

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:47 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U of M sentiment gets released to subscribers before we see it.

GVI Forex john 14:46 GMT November 14, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

10-yr 2.363% +1.4bp

GVI Forex john 14:42 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

University of Michigan Survey up next. Market expecting a stronger number. This is the first reading for November.

GVI Forex john 14:40 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

Pivot Point neutrality os 1.2467

Mtl JP 13:50 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

I show this week's euro low at 1.2393
blocks attempt at 1.2356 , the long-time low set the week before that

GVI Forex john 13:49 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

1.2377 pivot support #3. Below support #3 statistically unusual (less than 5% of the time over last three years).

london red 13:48 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

import prices just taken the froth off the retail sales. no signs of inflation. but growth and no inflation is better than neither of either.

FW CS 13:46 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

Red
for me to maintain bearish eur must close below 1,2438. 1.2390 close more bearish.

Tallinn viies 13:45 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
imho minimum target for today 1,2365.

london red 13:41 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

12419 is a sell level if they can rebound here. mkt will not move back abv 40 if going down. a break of 2395 target 2377 and 2363. abv 2440 and they scramble, probably trendline and 200 hour wont cap. its a scenario but unlikely and not worth considering its consequences unless into 2419-40 range.

GVI Forex john 13:39 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Retail Sales. Stronger than expected.

GVI Forex john 13:32 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Advance Retail Sales October 2014




ALERT
+0.30% vs. -0.00% exp. vs. +0.60% pre
Ex-Auto: +0.60% v +0.30% exp. v -0.30% pre


PRESS RELEASE: U.S. Advance Retail Sales



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 13:32 GMT November 14, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

john 12:50 - does eurchf S3 at 1.2008 have a 5% odds attached as well ?
TIA!

GVI Forex john 13:31 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Import Prices October 2014




NEWS ALERT
-1.30% vs. -1.20% exp. vs. -0.50% (r -0.60%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

london red 13:24 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

hourly trendline at 2455 and 200 hour at 2461. they should act as a pivot on any miss rebound. if cleared they do some upside, but id still be a sell north of 125 as noted below.

london red 13:04 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

50% of 8050-7750 7915
23.6 of 8800-7750 8013

worth noting move up from 7750 to 8800 and back down to 7750. first low was 7764 the most recent 7766, so technically not a lower low. but need to move and stay abv 8013 before any possibility of a longer more drawn out rebound. the fundamentals probably wont allow for such a move though.

Mtl JP 13:04 GMT November 14, 2014
Eurozone GDP Data Better Than Expected. The U.S. Data Calendar is Active

the point , me thinks, is that MSM headlines are not screaming EZone in Recession. A secondary point , just slightly less important, is that EZ economy is doing a balancing act on the rim of a toilet. ECB self-proclaims its continued and maybe increased meddling (they call that "help") is essential.

Cape Town LV 12:55 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

Thank you Red

Singapore SC 12:53 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

Red can you tell us what charts you use for your fibs so we can follow your logic. tia

GVI Forex john 12:52 GMT November 14, 2014
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GVI Forex john 12:50 GMT November 14, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System



EUR Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels, Support and Resistance. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



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london red 12:49 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

LV, currently eurgbp rebounding, has taken the trendline at 7925 today. we havent tested it yet today. may be there will be a test, then buy 25 with stop under fib and 100 day ma at 7915. LT trendline at 8019 and 23.6 fib at 8013 probably the main targets while trendline holds on a daily close. interim are 7987,94. below 144 month ema at 7908, you want to look start for selling opportunities for a recommencement of downtrend, confirmed for me under 7874.

GVI Forex john 12:45 GMT November 14, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
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london red 12:41 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

in addition, looks like euro options comfort zone is 12410-12490. anything outside of there should increase volatility. if we move outside of this zone but then return, youd expect the price to reach the other extreme.

Cape Town LV 12:37 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

Hi Red, what is your view on EUR/GBP please?

london red 12:35 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

mkt probably pricing in a slight beat to retail sales. with the usdjpy at a new high they are going to want to move the euro to a new low on a good beat, particularly if yen can stay abv 116.40 odd.
on a miss, euro sales from 12490-12520 with stops abv 12530 should be safe. cable fib at 15721 is going to be hard to beat so sales from 157 upwards make sense. weekly close below 15721 points to 15507 support and bigger from 15350-15300. trendline just abv 152 fig. of course not today but in coming weeks.
on a side note nzdjpy has a couple of channel lines 91.97 and 92.13. the longterm trendline support (broken in july this year) comes in at 91.70 today.

Paris ib 12:20 GMT November 14, 2014
E-Money risk according to BoC

JP - yeah they sure don't want people to find away around the Central Bank monopoly.

Mtl JP 12:08 GMT November 14, 2014
E-Money risk according to BoC
Reply   
E-Money Not Big Enough To Pose Risk, Says Bank Of Canada

- isn’t widespread enough to pose a risk to the financial system at this time

- use of cryptocurrencies carries risks including theft, fraud and the potential for money laundering

- widespread acceptance would also create issues for the central bank because transactions wouldn’t be denominated in Canadian dollars

- “This would reduce the bank’s ability to influence macroeconomic activity through Canadian interest rates,” Wilkins said. “Let me be clear, we are nowhere near this point today but if we were, it would be even more important to determine whether issuing e-money is a role that should be done by the central bank.” — Bloomberg

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:57 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

US retail sales data for October will provide the first official reading on consumer spending in Q4. Retail spending fell by 0.3% in September possibly due in part to an earlier than usual Labor day holiday. We forecast a 0.4% rebound in October, driven by stronger car sales. Dealer reports already suggest that these rose last month.

Lloyds Bank Daily Economic Outlook

Tallinn viies 11:55 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
I think it is common sense that retail sales and consumer confidence should be better if oil is falling like stone from the sky.
front running numbers

gc sf 11:50 GMT November 14, 2014
Eurozone GDP Data Better Than Expected. The U.S. Data Calendar is Active

honestly from someone on the sidelines

it sure looks like someone already has the US Numbers for today - and they are expecting some decent results.

Gold Lower - GBP offered - Eur weakish - AUD haven't seen it this offered for some time -- $YEN doesn't seem any fear in buying it at all.

GVI Forex Blog 11:30 GMT November 14, 2014
Eurozone GDP Data Better Than Expected. The U.S. Data Calendar is Active
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: US- Import Prices, Retail Sales, University of Michigan, Business Inventories

Highlights today include U.S. Retail Sales Data and the preliminary University of Michigan Survey. German and Eurozone GDP data were a bit better than expected. Some of the "whisper numbers" before the data had been for a miss.

Eurozone GDP Data Better Than Expected. The U.S. Data Calendar is Active

GVI Forex Blog 11:29 GMT November 14, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
and egging the SNB to show its hand on defending the currency floor - USDJPY rally continued with the pair hitting fresh 7-year highs. The debate regarding the future shape of policy in Japan continued and should get further light with Monday's key Q3 GDP release (seen as most likely time for PM Abe to decide whether to call a snap general election and delay the next stage of the sales tax hike)

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Fragile position of the Euro Zone economy highlighted by today's release of the 3Q GDP data;

GVI Forex john 11:15 GMT November 14, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Reply   

14 November--  11:00 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Europe markets are in a  MIXED RISK posture early in Europe markets digest better than expected European GDP data. Final HICP data for October were barely changed from the flash estimates. A focus today could once again be the SNB EURCHF 1.2000 peg.

In the Far East, equities ended higher. European bourses are mostly lower. U.S. share futures are up. U.S 10-yr note yield is steady. 10-yr bund yields are lower  Gilt yields are down. European peripheral bond yields are mixed to lower.




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


Paris ib 10:30 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

PAR - this whole thing is so ex Soviet Union style denial of reality that it's scary.

We got these Central Bankers no longer content with setting overnight rates, attempting to manipulate the bond market... and all the mainstream media PUNDITS calling for more from the 'authorities'. The idea that the 'authorities' do MORE scares the bejesus out of me.

PAR 10:26 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

Every person has his own personal inflation profile depending on his lifestyle .

The official figures ( hedonic adjustments) are just made up for policy purposes ( to keep rates on government debt down- financial repression) and no longer reflect reality .

Paris ib 10:26 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

The officially deemed level of inflation out there bears no relation to the actual rise in prices. As for petrol prices, they are high and have not gone down. In Italy extra taxes have pushed them up to record levels. Deflation? Not a chance.

Of course as long as inflation is 'deemed' to be low 'real' GDP growth is higher than it would otherwise be. What's not to like?

GVI Forex john 10:16 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

EZ 3Q14 GDP. Preliminary data stronger than expected.




Global-VIew EZ and German Charts

GVI Forex john 10:14 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

EZ Final HICP. Headline HICP unrevised. Headline CPI ECB target.




Global-VIew EZ and German Charts

GVI Forex john 10:04 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Final EZ HICP (CPI) October 2014





ALERT
mm: -0.10% vs. +0.00% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.
yy: +0.40% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.

HICP core
yy: +0.70% vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 10:01 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Eurozone GDP 3Q2014





ALERT
qq: +0.20% vs +0.10% exp. vs. -0.20% (r ) prev.
yy: +0.80% vs. +0.70% exp. vs. +1.20% (r ) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


target="_blank">Eurozone GDP Data

GVI Forex john 09:32 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

German GDP data were as expected...

EZ GDP at the top of the hour

Paris ib 09:19 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

'there is inflation everywhere right now'...

ZeroHedge needs to learn how to spell steak.

Fertitta again

GVI Forex john 09:17 GMT November 14, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

German GDP 3Q14




Earlier NEWS Release
QQ: +0.10% vs. -0.10% exp. vs. -0.20% (r %)prev.
yy: +1.20% vs. +1.10% exp. vs. +1.20% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Paris ib 09:13 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

Fertitta on inflation... 'every single cost is up'.

Tilman Fertitta on Inflation

Paris ib 08:58 GMT November 14, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.
Reply   
"Well go buy something, whether at the grocery store, the drug store, the broom and mop store, and there is inflation everywhere. I have so many types of businesses so I buy everything from labor, to mops, to food, to shrimp, to stake and everything is more expensive. We are raising prices: that's why right now you pay more for an airline ticket, you pay more for a hotel room, you pay more for a pot of coffee. There is huge inflation going on right now." Tilman Fertitta

I think we all know this is true. It's true in Europe. It's true in Australia. I don't live in Japan or Asia so I couldn't tell you. I'd be interested to see if anyone out there has experienced the non-existant 'deflation' the Central Bankers and the MEDIA seem to be sooooo concerned about. From where I stand deflation is simply A LIE.

So what does this mean? It means the monetary policy is entirely divorced from inflation and probably from employment or even the real economy. Which brings back the idea that monetary policy is solely aimed at keeping the cost of rolling over existing government debt down (ie. manipulating bond yields) and possibly influencing the exchange rate (Japan take a bow). Central bank set rates are likely to remain lower than they ordinarily would but the power of the Central Banks to set rates is eroding. At some point we could see a disaster on government bond markets. And currency markets won't be far behind. The attempt to fool around with the price of real assets (Gold for example) is unlikely to dampen demand for the real thing regardless of where the price is (who believes prices any more anyhow?).

This attempt at manipulating financial market prices will only increase volatility and market instability in the long run.

Inflation? What inflation?

gc sf 08:46 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia

JP - we had the Russian Spammers invade GV for a while there - so you never know ! : )

Hong Kong AceTrader 08:45 GMT November 14, 2014
AceTrader Nov 14: Intra-Day News Market Moving and Views (EUR/USD)
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

14 Nov 2014 08:08GMT

EUR/USD - ....... The release of slight better-than-expected German GDP triggered intra-day broad-based short covering in the euro earlier. Reuters reported the German economy grew by just 0.1% in the 3rd quarter of 2014, narrowly avoiding a recession thanks to a strong rise in consumer spending n small boost from foreign trade.

Some economists had feared Europe's largest economy would sink into recession in the July-September period after a 2nd quarter contraction, but Germany managed to match a consensus forecast for 0.1% growth in a Reuters poll.

The Statistics Office said the main positive impulse came from private households "which sharply increased their spending" while foreign trade provided "a slight positive effect on GDP".

Investments declined overall, the Statistics Office said, with investment in equipment declining sharply, investment in construction down slightly and a clear reduction in inventories.

Euro pares intra-day losses as early release of slightly better-than-expected French & German GDP triggered minor short-covering in the euro. As mentioned in previous update, st specs sold the euro at Asian open in anticipation of downbeat GDP readings from France, Germany, Italy & then EZ.
Intra-day decline accelerated in post-Tokyo lunch session on dovish comments by ECB Council member Noyer, euro fell to 1.2427 ahead of European open b4 rebounding to 1.2456 after the German GDP data.

Range trading above 1.2427 is expected until release of Italy's GDP & later EZ GDP at 18:00GMT.
Offers are tipped at 1.2455/60 n more above with fairly stops reported above 1.2510.
Bids are noted at 1.2430-20 with stops below 1.2390.


PAR 08:31 GMT November 14, 2014
France - Stock Markets
Reply   
France growth above expectations . Fueled by government spending. Not exactly what Europe wants .


For French stockmarket Hollande has been an excellent president , giving plenty of perks and taxbreaks to stock lised companies.

Also Obama has been among the best presidents ever for the US stockmarkets and his beloved Wall Street .

PAR 07:29 GMT November 14, 2014
GERMANY
Reply   
Germany Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) came in at 1.2%, above expectations (1%) in 3Q
2014-11-14 07:00 GMT - FXStreet.com

Mtl JP 04:41 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia

gc sf 02:48 / 100% odds it is not going to happen

GVI Forex Blog 03:46 GMT November 14, 2014 Reply   
Dow (17,652.79, +0.23%) made another new high in a rather volatile trade. The immediate

Morning Briefing : 14-Nov-2014 -0346 GMT

gc sf 02:48 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia

I suppose you guys will be the first too know if I see Russian Troops storming the beaches here in Surfers Paradise lol.

gc sf 02:44 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia

that's good I'm glad there is interest in Asia - I know it can be real boring many days . but sometimes the markets make more sense during the trading times.

we are now seeing about +70 bounce in Nikkei and $yen held 78-80 which is normal support in bullish $yen markets once we test above 10.

canmore clops 02:39 GMT November 14, 2014
gc sf
Reply   
gc sf >>> even though I am on the other side of the world, I probably look forward to your posts, more than anybody else here. Not that I am dishing everybody else, or anybody else, just from my point of view I get the most benefit from yours. I have been wanting to thank you for a long time now. So THANK YOU

nw kw 02:32 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia

I have jpy strength slightly
might not play its strength until yen rebalanced

nw kw 02:23 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia

jp- have look at poss trade
yen rebalancing/gbp/jpy --aud/jpy--gbp/aud

Mtl JP 02:08 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia

Japan stocks probably need to see more weakness in yen

nw kw 02:07 GMT November 14, 2014
Correlation

directional imbalance building in GBP, monitoring for the soft side move

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:02 GMT November 14, 2014
AceTrader Nov 14: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

14 Nov 2014 01:32GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The pair continues to take centre stage in hectic Tokyo trading as comments by Japan's ECONMIN Amari (see early MMN) led to renewed broad-based selling in the yen, intra-day gain to fresh 7-year highs in the Nikkei (N255 index rose to 17520) boosted risk sentiment and pushed price to a fresh 7-year peak at 116.20 after tripping stops above 115.90, then 116.10.

However, intra-day retreat in the Nikkei has prompted liquidation in speculative longs, dlr retreated to 115.89, suggesting choppy trading below 116.20 would be seen.
Initial bids are noted at 115.90-85 with stops below there, more buying interest is reported at 115.60-55 with stops below yesterday's NY low at 115.21.
On the upside, offers are reported at 116.10/20 and more at 116.40/50.

Statement from Japan's Chief Gov't Spokesman Yoshihide Suga (Chief Cabinet Sec) says Japan economy in recovery trend through gov't's economic policies.

While Japan FinMin Aso comment:
economy continuing a moderate recovery on the whole;
gov't must continue with efforts on fiscal reform;
private consumption stalling but employment, incomes investment improving; it would be become hard to halve primary budget deficit in FY2015/16 as planned if sales tax hike delayed.'
Japan sales tax hike is delayed, gov't may need to consider if economic stimulus steps are needed;
rising sales tax and delaying sales tax hike both carry risks, up to gov't to take steps to reduce these risks;
if Abe delays sales tax hike, he will do utmost to achieve primary budget deficit reduction targets;
not possible Abe to delay sales tax hike indefinitely; cannot allow trust in Japanese gov't debt to be damaged.'


Friday will see the release of France GDP, Germany GDP, Italy GDP, UK construction output, EU GDP, CPI, U.S. retail sales, export prices, import prices, business inventories, U. of Michigan sentiment and Canada manufacturing sales.

gc sf 01:51 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia

for sure - the early range - and then the afternoon move

today we just got out of sync here - due to Nikkei - which happened once before.

its midday for me time wise - so seems we have a lot more London/NYK traders in the Forum... so wait and see what you guys think later on.

FW CS 01:43 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia

St
early Asia seems always been this way. Biggest moves seem to start in london open.

gc sf 01:40 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia

If no-one is dealing in Asia - I won't bother posting updates .. for those not having Nikkei prices

but its down 220 from the high now - and as you can see $yen died out quickly.

gc sf 01:13 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia

Nikkei down 160 from high now .. new low

gc sf 00:34 GMT November 14, 2014
Asia

so looks like the demand was there -- but the problem they are having is the Nikkei is down 100 from the high

pity didn't dip off the bat - but thats the way it is sometimes.

FW CS 00:27 GMT November 14, 2014
eurusd

Viies euro due for correction north. If we go down now then it might be the last down wave down before a longer term bottom.

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
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Tue 28 May 2019
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AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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