Forex Forum Archive for 11/15/2014

shanghai bc 23:57 GMT November 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk


JP..Let me put it this way..China does not need IMF..IMF may or many not need China..Who cares..Then,how many divisions or battalions does IMF have,to block traffic in Eurasion land mass against the wishes of Russia and China..Just look at the Eurasian map..Obama deserves a people's hero medal for permanently pushing Russia towards China..Chinese are still scratching their heads for timley god-send opportunity..Some people are simply stupid and some people are simply lucky..

Mtl JP 21:56 GMT November 15, 2014
Correlations

john 18:10 potentially an astute observation with potentially very rewarding or very painful consequences.
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I had an offline conversation with a trader colleague exactly about that and in reference to my S&P chart with 300 point potential that I have posted on the forum maybe 2x already.

Essentially the preponderance of odds rests with stocks going up further if only on the $80 billion/month juice being currently officially provided by the Japanese printer. The printing can be considered, and probably is, a formidable negating force to my chart trendlines-inspired 300 point pullback.

On the other hand, 2 factors that could be posi-force are:
1) 300 points off 2040 is only an 8.5% pullback - a healthy tiny cleansing fire.
2) S&P is yielding a 1.89% dividend, with all the risks associated with holding stocks. Compared to the current 10-yr note yield of 2.318% - very noteworthy 22.5% superior yield.

I look at this situation as a perfect illustration of the nefariousness of Central Bank activist meddling in the market which hinders fair free market valuation and pricediscovery and causes massive mispricing and mis-allocation.

Noone can dispute the power that printer CBanks have in the market. But no one can also dispute that some/one/thing is bigger than the market. Activist CBanks are playing with fire. One day they will cause the market go "woosh-wamp" like a bottle of exploding oxygen. Then my 8.5% 300 point pullback will look tame. Even compared to a 25% dump that would see 1530 price level.

There is a 3rd point, albeit it is one whose timing is impossible to predict: the moment when folks stop trusting one of the CB's money.

Mtl JP 20:49 GMT November 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

bc 14:31 - not if IMF & Co establish a govt seat in Kiev and military tollbooth to collect transit fees on the so-called silk road

GVI Forex john 18:10 GMT November 15, 2014
Correlations

Note "perfect" (.99) correlation between JPY and Nikkei and near perfect (.96) relationship with S&P.

GVI Forex john 18:00 GMT November 15, 2014
Correlations
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Latest Correlations...
We continue to build out this table. NZD items have now been included. Bottom line, its all about equities and U.S. interest rates.

GVI Forex john 15:50 GMT November 15, 2014
FOREX FUNDAMENTALS FOR TRADING

Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: Relative economic positions clear in these Manufacturing PMI's:

USD and CAD are trending up together. It is logical that these two economies should be intertwined.

Then there is CNY and AUD. AUD is very much tied to export demand from China. These two remain soft and that is reflected in a soft AUD.

shanghai bc 14:31 GMT November 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk


JP..Eurasian powers and Atlantic powers have always had different perspective of the world..Different environment breed different folks and perspectives..

China may be more oriented towards Eurasian economic bloc for the coming decades with Beijing-Moscow-Berlin axis via new Silk Road..It has always been a Eurasian land power and will remain that way..

If Obama can afford it towards Asia,he is free to go anywere with a chewing gum in his mouth..

GVI Forex john 14:11 GMT November 15, 2014
FOREX FUNDAMENTALS FOR TRADING
Reply   
Fundamentals for Trading. EXCLUSIVE CHART: prior to flash PMI data this week. Relative economic strengths are clear: there is the USD and then everyone else (GBP, EUR and JPY). We got our tip-off here a month ago that GBP was vulnerable a fall.

The EUR is now looking a little vulnerable.

We use three month moving averages to smooth the monthly swings and the manufacturing PMI's because they are more sensitive to business cycles.

GVI Forex john 13:43 GMT November 15, 2014
Mixed Economic Messages - November 16, 2014
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Bank of England Sends a Dovish Signal
Over the past few years, the U.K. has been economy that had been the furthest along on the recovery path. Six moths ago there had been chatter that the Bank of England was the central bank most likely to hike its interest rate first. If not in November the talk was that for sure rates were headed higher in 1Q15. Recent data have shown the economy slowing down, and this week, the latest quarterly Inflation Report suggested that market interest rates would not be hiked until the end of 2015 or maybe not until 2016. in response to these shifting economic winds, the GBP has lost significant ground vs. the EUR, USD and other major currencies....MORE

Mixed Economic Messages - November 16, 2014

Mtl JP 11:35 GMT November 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

shanghai bc 10:39 - Now that China is doing its own balancing act on the rim of economic toilet it is pulling out and recycling the same sh!t Greenspan peddled 12 years ago:

..."The development of our paradigms for containing risk has emphasized, and will, of necessity, continue to emphasize dispersion of risk to those willing, and presumably able, to bear it. If risk is properly dispersed, shocks to the overall economic system will be better absorbed and less likely to create cascading failures that could threaten financial stability."... - Chairman Alan Greenspan , September 25, 2002

And If risk is NOT properly dispersed ? There is the reason China needs to learn between the lines the meaning of what it means for Barry to remind people that he sees US engagement in Asia as key in the 21st Century.

Mtl JP 11:14 GMT November 15, 2014
Ukraine

driving the hryvnia currency down by some 17 percent this month, Ukraine's PM says main task is to build army to stop Russia

KIEV (Reuters) - Ukraine's top priority is to build an army strong enough to stop Russian military aggression, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk said on Friday. ... One of the first tasks of a new government would be to come up with a new budget that he promised would be "very tough." The new government would implement reforms required under a $17-billion International Monetary Fund loan program. .../..
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17% in one month... do that 12x and what was 100 becomes 10.69 in one year on straight line. What a profit opportunity - if only the hryvnia was retail-tradable.

shanghai bc 10:39 GMT November 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk


From next Monday，via Shanghai-Hongkong Connect System,Mainland investors can buy HK stocks in China and HK investors can buy Mainland stocks in Hongkong..In other words,Shanghai stock market is open to the whole world retail investors to trade and invest..Another step to globalization of Mainand assets market..

dc CB 00:56 GMT November 15, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

QQQ-CHART STILL LEADES

it's Apple, it's weight is so large. If it were in the DJIA, we's be at 25000 or higher

With Apple at record highs, its market capitalization is now bigger than Russia's entire stock market (the 20th largest market in the world).

As Bloomberg adds,

If you owned Apple Inc., and sold it, you could purchase the entire stock market of Russia, and still have enough change to buy every Russian an iPhone 6 Plus.

Russia, the 20th largest among the world�s major markets, is not the only one Apple has surpassed. The company, which forecasts a record holiday-sales quarter and has $155 billion in cash, is also bigger than 17th-ranked Singapore and 18th-ranked Italy.

Apple Now Worth More Than Entire Russian Stock Market