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Forex Forum Archive for 11/17/2014

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nw kw 22:58 GMT November 17, 2014
Asia Tuesday

Hang Seng had a big dead cat so 118.50 target is poss look at monthly has no retrace

dc CB 22:53 GMT November 17, 2014
Asia Tuesday

GVI Forex john 22:19 GMT
I think its important to understand that Japan is a consensus society. That is why the same story about the delay in the sales tax increase keeps getting released like its new news.

Call me a super-cynic. But News Reading Algo's don't wait to check the date/time or bother to cross ref the STORY.
A lot of this(Asia rips/dips) takes place during the Off Hours...after Europe is cocktailed out and the US is on their 4th 'tini or bong hit.

It works until it dosen't.

Mtl JP 22:49 GMT November 17, 2014
Asia Tuesday

john 22:19 present policies are not working, just like the past ones didn't neither will protracting present policies work tomorrow as publicly planned.

old men, old ideas running on an ancient Japanese fable of some 3 arrows. past-due date brains gone rancid , I used to think Japan's salvation possibly lies in a palace revolution by the young: chaos is variously estimated to be 3-5-7 meals away. But now that they are getting advice from Krugman (policy innovation is one of his recommendations, Kr praises Abenomics as a policy innovation ), things may hurry along faster they I ever imagined, never mind the misery these characters inflict on their ordinary folk

nw kw 22:41 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

jp-How a bought 76 fib 121.00

GVI Forex john 22:39 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



November 17, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, November 18. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: GB- CPI, DE- ZEW Survey, US- PPI

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: GB- CPI, DE- ZEW Survey.
  • North America: US- PPI, NAHB Index, API.


GVI Forex john 22:26 GMT November 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System



EUR Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels, Support and Resistance. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.

Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System




Mtl JP 22:22 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

Lets see if the usdyen puppy can pop thru 117.04
sub S1 partial-kills it

Tallinn viies 22:20 GMT November 17, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
imho eurusd range for today 1,2480 - 1,2380

GVI Forex john 22:19 GMT November 17, 2014
Asia Tuesday

I think its important to understand that Japan is a consensus society. That is why the same story about the delay in the sales tax increase keeps getting released like its new news. The same thing goes for "snap election" due to be announced on Tuesday(?). The purpose of the Lower House elections is to solidify support for the tax delay.

On balance, this looks to be JPY negative because it indicates that present policies are not working/

dc CB 22:13 GMT November 17, 2014
Asia Tuesday

Wait til the USA posts declining GDP...weather will be a good excuse...so cold in November nobody shopped on Black Friday:)))

UNEXPECTED....esp since Obama and Jack Lew have been making the rounds chastising the rest of the world..."America can't do it alone. Some of the rest of you Slacker Countries are going to have to step up and DO Something the Boost Your wimpy economies"...Get off the couch, put down that weed, get a job.

GVI Forex john 22:09 GMT November 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   



USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





gc sf 21:57 GMT November 17, 2014
Asia Tuesday

Abel.

all information is valuable in one form or another .. the main thing is for people to participate

otherwise we will just have GVI-John posting and that is all.

Also we have very active LDN + NYK Posters - but most days its quiet in Asia -- so while the market is moving - it would be good to Share as well.... there is no rule that says you have to be right every time... it is the internet after all ... LOL.

GVI Forex john 21:56 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
TUESDAY
09:30 GB CPI BOE targets inflation
13:30 US PPI inflation measure
21:00 US TIC Net Flows  capital flows
WEDNESDAY
04:30 JP Bank of Japan  policy
09:30 GB BOE Minutes
13:30 US House Starts/Permits Housing data
18:00 FRB Fed Minutes
THURSDAY
01:45 CN HSBC flash PMI key sentiment measure
08:00 FR MFG PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:00 FR SVC PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:28 DE MFG PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:28 DE SVC PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:58 EZ flash MFG PMI key sentiment measure
08:58 EZ flash SVC PMI key sentiment measure
09:30 GB Ret Sls consumer demand
13:30 US CPI Fed targets inflation
13:30 US Initial Claims weekly jobless
14:45 US Mfg MKt PMI flash key sentiment measure
15:00 US Existing Homes Top Housing Statistics
15:30 US EIA Crude impacts crude prices
FRIDAY  
13:30 CA CPI BOC targets CPI
14:00 EZ Draghi

GVI Forex john 21:45 GMT November 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

CLOSING LEVELS....




jkt abel 21:39 GMT November 17, 2014
Asia Tuesday

when the usual ones cry for 20-30 pips target with no stops, immediately go opposite, always yield good profit, proven indicator ;)

gc sf 21:38 GMT November 17, 2014
Asia Tuesday

I don't see a Scheduled Time for this Today - so it is a screen watching job.

When he announces the "Delay" it seems the consensus is that $YEN will rise ... but then it depends what else he says as to whether that continues or not.

Also I guess too .... people are going to read about Kuroda's comments - that he only eased because he thought the new Tax was coming.

Expecting another busy day here.

nw kw 21:36 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

Abe adviser calls for stimulus after 'shocking' GDP

http://www.japantoday.com/category/politics/view/abe-adviser-honda-calls-for-stimulus-after-shocking-gdp

http://www.japantoday.com/category/politics/view/abe-adviser-honda-calls-for-stimulus-after-shocking-gdp

london red 21:28 GMT November 17, 2014
Asia Tuesday

well those ipads are gonna get more expensive but they tried building roads and bridges and that didnt work. any solutions are political suicide, the best solution is time, a lot of it, a generation maybe, but no politician can sell that and stay alive. they all need to be seen doing something proactive. but its zero sum, at this party not all the kids can go home with a goodie bag.

gc sf 21:14 GMT November 17, 2014
Asia Tuesday

Last one on the "14,000 Kuroda Put"

"It is also worth remembering that, while Kuroda makes headlines, the BOJ's policy is not determined by the governor alone. At the latest policy board meeting, four of nine members voted against the extra monetary stimulus. That narrow margin can be taken as a lack of support for the Kuroda put; Greenspan, in contrast, used to push for unanimity and get it.

Should Kuroda find himself on the losing end of a vote, investors will suddenly find themselves unable to gauge the BOJ's policy direction. The stock market will likely get slammed."

This is worth keeping in mind as well .. that BOJ members are far from convinced even amongst themselves.

nw kw 21:13 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

The economic contraction has fuelled speculation that Mr Abe will call an early election to lock in support before making more unpopular moves. Next year he is expected to push ahead with controversial plans such as restarting reactors that went off-line after the Fukushima nuclear crisis and a shift away from Japan's post-war pacifism.

gc sf 21:07 GMT November 17, 2014
Asia Tuesday

Also this comment from the head of the Government Pension Fund Yesterday --> they haven't started to buy Assets external to Japan as yet - but they plan to do so and complete those purchases in the next 12 months.

"In addition, Yasuhiro Yonezawa, the head of the Government Pension Investment Fund's investment committee, said Tuesday that it may take less than a year to finish adjusting the fund's portfolio. Based on the GPIF's new investment strategy, announced on Oct. 31, the fund will increase the ratio of its asset holdings of foreign stocks and bonds to 40%, up from slightly more than 26% at the end of June. According to data released by Japan's finance ministry, the world's largest institutional investor has not yet boosted its purchases of foreign currencies for the yen as of the end of October. If players take his remark at face value, the yen can be seen remaining under selling pressure against other currencies." from Asia Nikkei

gc sf 21:00 GMT November 17, 2014
Asia Tuesday

"Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda commented that the additional easing announced at the end of October was made under the assumption that the consumption tax would go up next year as planned, putting the brakes on Tokyo stocks.

Foreign investors are growing more sensitive to the tax hike's timing, currently set for October 2015. Until the end of last month, they had expected the government to push through with the initial plans, but the BOJ's additional easing quickly convinced them otherwise.

"Initially, people expected the decision on the tax hike to come first, followed by easing by the BOJ and economic policies," said Shinichi Ichikawa of Credit Suisse. "But the bank made the move even without a hike, and many believe the Japanese economy will hold the line for now."

Foreign interest in Japanese stocks is only rising. Japanese stocks and the yen have seen big fluctuations lately, drawing investors' attention, said Y.K. Chan of Phillip Capital Management.

But not everyone supports pushing back the tax hike. A Singaporean newspaper quoted a market source Wednesday as saying Abe faces a serious dilemma concerning the tax hike: pushing it through damages his credibility, but postponing it will hurt his international reputation as a leader dedicated to Japan's fiscal health.

Investment money from other Asian markets may start flowing into Japan if it delays the hike, a Singaporean economist points out. But "Asian and other foreign investors are critical of Japan's fiscal position," said Hayato Nakamura of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. "If the government just postpones the hike, it could affect Japanese stock prices negatively."

Japan needs fiscal rebuilding in the long run, the temporary surge in share prices notwithstanding. Even if Abe decides to postpone the hike to gain a short-term boost, "stock prices could fall after rising toward the end of the year," Ichikawa points out. Retail investors should be aware that the wild ride will continue for a while."" Asia Nikkei


So that is why the Nikkei sold off late yesterday .. because Kuroda commented the only reason he eased was he thought the extra consumption tax hike was coming.

Also to my point yesterday the comments all point to Foreigners being very active in the Japanese Market .. as they are really following these markets every announcement.

"Overseas investors bombarded the Japanese branches of foreign securities companies with questions after Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga reportedly denied at around 11 a.m. any possibility of dissolving the lower house. Selling of Japanese stocks swelled, and the Nikkei average fell more than 130 points in the 10 minutes after the news broke."

gc sf 20:51 GMT November 17, 2014
Asia Tuesday
Reply   
Abe set to announce delay, early elections

"TOKYO -- Fearing further damage to an economy that has shrunk for two straight quarters, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will announce Tuesday that he intends to seek an 18-month delay to a consumption tax increase set for next October.

Abe will also declare his intention to dissolve the lower house and call a general election to hear the public's judgment on the delay.

"We mustn't let the chance to escape deflation slip through our fingers," Abe said Monday to members of Komeito, the junior partner in his coalition government. He also vowed to make a "cool-headed" analysis of the tax question.

Meeting with Komeito leader Natsuo Yamaguchi, the two agreed that Monday's preliminary data on third-quarter gross domestic product was shockingly bad. Abe shared his intention to postpone the tax hike and call a snap election with Yamaguchi, as he had with Finance Minister Taro Aso on the flight back from the Group of 20 summit in Australia.

Before formally announcing his decision Tuesday, Abe will consult with Aso and other cabinet members and order up an economic stimulus package.

Postponing the tax increase -- a 2-percentage-point step to 10% following this past April's 3-point hop -- requires new legislation. The current law allows the hike to be called off in the event of adverse economic conditions, but officials want to toss out that provision in the new law, which would set a new launch date of April 1, 2017. This would show the Abe government's commitment to raising the tax, acknowledging concerns about the impact of a delay on Japan's already-listing public finances.

Abe intends to dissolve the lower house as soon as this week, with campaigning kicking off Dec. 2 for a Dec. 14 election. By holding the vote as quickly as possible, he wants to minimize the stoppage in work on the fiscal 2015 budget."" from Asia Nikkei

nw kw 20:46 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

I did find jpy might have a stimulus plan for the market not to big?

GVI Forex john 20:45 GMT November 17, 2014
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Amman wfakhoury 20:07 GMT November 17, 2014
AUDUSD 0.8682 confirmed
Reply   
AUDUSD 0.8682 cofirmed will be reached .return level 0.8738
any rise above it will return to it. sell and add sell @0.8785 .


The only one in the world who confirms the next level

Paris ib 19:56 GMT November 17, 2014
China, Syria and Murky Geopolitics

JP - sorry I apologize to the pygmies. You are right. :-)

Mtl JP 19:50 GMT November 17, 2014
China, Syria and Murky Geopolitics

Paris ib I take exception to your derogation of Pygmy - a fabulous race of people whose characteristic is their relative short height - by associating them with politicians.

Mtl JP 19:41 GMT November 17, 2014
The Perfect Storm

SF Fed Paper Warns Fed May Not Hit Price Target Until After 2016 - wsj

- Fed’s official view is that inflation above or below its 2% is equally undesirable
- the 2% inflation objective may not be achieved until “after the end of 2016.”
- “There is little evidence that monetary policy constitutes a major source of inflation risk”

the paper: The Risks to the Inflation Outlook - frsbf

Paris ib 19:40 GMT November 17, 2014
China, Syria and Murky Geopolitics

"The remarks by Barack Obama at the University of Queensland on Saturday, delivered while he was in Australia for the G20 Leaders Summit, was a bellicose restatement that the US will use every means, including war, to prevent any challenge by China to American dominance over the Asia-Pacific."

Another pygmy.

China vs the USA

GVI Forex Blog 19:34 GMT November 17, 2014
Draghi EU Parliament Testimony Dovish AS Expected. Japan GDP Misses Big. ZEW & CPIs Tuesday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: GB- CPI, DE- ZEW Survey, US- PPI

Tuesday features U.K. and U.S. inflation data, German ZEW data, and several second-tier U.S. items. Japanese preliminary 3Q14 GDP fell well short of expectations, contracting by 0.40% (-1.6% pa). Falling inventories and weak retail sales data were blamed for the miss. Undoubtedly, the planned sales tax hike will have to be postponed and the JPY will remain at risk for additional weakness. Testimony by ECB President Draghi was mainly dovish, but broke no new ground. His answers to the European Parliament had no impact on the markets.

Draghi EU Parliament Testimony Dovish AS Expected. Japan GDP Misses Big. ZEW & CPIs Tuesday

Paris ib 19:19 GMT November 17, 2014
The Perfect Storm

JP - lol
Just when you think things can't get any worse a pygmy like Hollande takes the stage. Every where you look: politicians from hell.

Mtl JP 19:14 GMT November 17, 2014
The Perfect Storm

according to Hollande "One way to prevent conflicts and catastrophe is by taking decisions."

I guess he should know a thing or two about that given his history of philandering

Mtl JP 19:11 GMT November 17, 2014
The Perfect Storm

and here is Hollande: "We will meet again in Paris to sign a global agreement that will prevent the planet from experiencing global warming of as much as three or four degrees (Celsius), which could lead to catastrophe, if not war," with his battle cry

Paris ib 18:22 GMT November 17, 2014
A Warning to All Forex Traders: The Market Isn't Your Enemy!

Good article Jay. Nice reminder ! Thanks.

Paris ib 18:03 GMT November 17, 2014
The Perfect Storm

CB - European markets came back strongly today - with Draghi helping I guess. David Cameron was all doom and gloomy at the G20 - talking about red lights and warning signals and crashes up ahead. Thomas von Koch was certainly a bear in the link I posted and his reasoning was solid, which is a worry. This should be an interesting week in stocks. The Christmas period might put any correction on hold but the undercurrents in the market are concerning. Geopolitics is still very ugly. The calm before the storm?

dc CB 17:53 GMT November 17, 2014
The Perfect Storm

Today Stox Indexes are so far working on the old Algo POMO Sched.
Bottom put in 10:30-10:35 AM

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:42 GMT November 17, 2014
A Warning to All Forex Traders: The Market Isn't Your Enemy!
Reply   


One of the first articles I posted when we started GTA was entitled, The Market Isn’t Your Enemy. I was reminded of it last week when I saw a trader, one who is experienced, fall into the trap of treating the forex market like it was his enemy. This article is still one of my favorites in our role as a trader’s advocate and I will explain why as follows:

A Warning to All Forex Traders: The Market Isn't Your Enemy!

Paris ib 17:26 GMT November 17, 2014
eurusd

viies - a bit too early to say. Friday could have been a shot across the bow (that is a sign of things to come) or just a blip. The next couple of weeks will tell us.

Paris ib 17:24 GMT November 17, 2014
The Perfect Storm

"JPMorgan Chase & Co. told investors to dump U.S. equities in favor of their European counterparts...."

The JPMorgan Call

Tallinn viies 17:24 GMT November 17, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
euro miracle from friday all gone. even test of 1,2400 possible before asian open

Mtl JP 17:23 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

for reference recent usdyen high at 117.04

Mtl JP 17:23 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

for reference recent usdyen high at 117.04

Mtl JP 17:15 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

on deck this week:
19/11/14 4:30 A JP Bank of Japan 0.10% 0.10%

GVI Forex Blog 16:57 GMT November 17, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
USD/JPY fell hard from seven-year highs just above 117 down as low as 115.50 during the European session, but has gradually crept back up to 116.55. EUR/USD nosed below 1.2450 mid morning. FX traders are talking about a big bid in EUR/CHF around the 1.2010 level, on the order of €10 billion, presumably from the Swiss National Bank

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Equities Enter the Pre-Thanksgiving Doldrums

GVI Forex john 16:56 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

sf- agree 100% lots of moving parts...

gc sf 16:55 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

John - we may have no data tomorrow - but I'm pretty sure Abe will be speaking/making announcements - we should have another volatile session tomorrow in Asia.

there still seems split readings on what this all means -- but ultimately it will be decided by the Nikkei move again.

a close here @116.45 is the worst possible result in terms of maintaining momentum .. which would mean the initial move will just gap higher/lower.

GVI Forex john 16:55 GMT November 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Reply   

17 November--  16:50 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Markets have shifted to a  MIXED RISK posture as they move into the European close. Today has seen dovish comments by ECB President Draghi. Earlier in the day, we saw worse than expected Japanese GDP data which threw the economy into a technical recession.

In the Far East, equities ended sharply lower. European bourses are closing higher. U.S. shares are lower. The U.S 10-yr note yield is up. 10-yr bund yields are higher  Gilt yields are down. European peripheral bond yields are mostly lower.




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:54 GMT November 17, 2014
E/$

EURUSD

1.2450 remains pivotal, low 1.2445, intra-day res 1.2464 and 1.2482 (flipped between sup and res)


Draghi is still testifying and EUR has been soft since he started speaking

Paris ib 16:45 GMT November 17, 2014
The Perfect Storm

Not looking for growth in the Russian economy but bullish on Russian stocks.

Bullish on Russia

Paris ib 16:38 GMT November 17, 2014
The Perfect Storm
Reply   
Looking for trouble from Sweden. Thomas von Koch

Stock Bear

Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 16:26 GMT November 17, 2014
E/$

euro long 2495 stopped .1/2 - 15, 1/2 -53..
gl gt..

GVI Forex Blog 16:22 GMT November 17, 2014 Reply   
November 17, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, November 18. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: GB- CPI, DE- ZEW Survey, US- PPI

GVI Forex Data Outlook for November 18, 2014

GVI Forex john 16:20 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



November 17, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, November 18. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: GB- CPI, DE- ZEW Survey, US- PPI

  • Far East: No Major Data.
  • Europe: GB- CPI, DE- ZEW Survey.
  • North America: US- PPI, NAHB Index, API.


GVI Forex john 16:15 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

but bonds are in competition with stocks. Its axiomatic. When stock prices go up bond prices go down.

Mtl JP 16:08 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

stocks generally prefer cheaper n accessible money

NY JM 16:07 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Now stocks slipping...note JPY correlation

GVI Forex john 16:01 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

The classic relationship is for bond yields to rise when stock prices rise. The two are in competition for the investor dollar. Works the other way also then equity prices fall.

london red 15:59 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Mental note to sell 15786 res, thats all i have JP. But i often have more patience than market, so if below 156 I will be left hoping for a one off event rather than technicals to get my entry this week.

USA YV 15:58 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

I believe global wealth is restructurig until year end. Good for trading volatility, bad for reading synchronic markets

Mtl JP 15:49 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

JM bond yields higher, stocks recovering is incongruent.
one is wrong

Mtl JP 15:39 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

red 15:11 plz throw down a few billion here n there so that gbpdlr can reach my 76.4% fib on the daily...
x-mass s coming, need some toys and wnt 2 buy a pony for Livingston. tia

GVI Forex john 15:27 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Belgrade Knez 14:37 GMT 11/17/2014 John, can you post the link where one can watch Draghi speach please? Draghi Testimony

Draghi Webcast

NY JM 15:17 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

US bond yields higher, stocks recovering, fx following despite weaker than expected data today

london red 15:11 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

yen. possible bull trap thru intraday fib res at 11645. similar price action to bear trap thru 38.2 at 11607 earlier today.
euro. similarly bear trap in play thru 200 hour ma at 59. close abv at top of hour required to set it off, otherwise test of 39 pivot on the cards.

GVI Forex john 14:55 GMT November 17, 2014
Correlations
Reply   
I posted our expanded table over the weekend

For the last month Note the "perfect" (0.99) correlation between the Nikkei and JPY

also USDJPY to S&P relationship is a "near perfect" 0.96.


Mtl JP 14:47 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

good time for Beppe Grillo to win his referendum on leaving the euro as soon as possible

GVI Forex 14:39 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

No surprises from Draghi

09:11 (EU) ECB's Draghi: 2014 was a challenging year for monetary policy; outlook is increasingly sobering as growth weakened over the summer - quarterly update to EU Parliament
- Reiterates risks to economic outlook remain to the downside- Reiterates inflation in Euro Zone remains very low, reforms remain insufficient
- The turning point in credit growth is already behind us
- Reiterates ECB council in agreement that it can use more unconventional measures if necessary, but need more time to see the impact of the recent measures already taken- Sees early signs the credit package is delivering tangible benefits
- Additional measures to be taken could be changes in the size and composition of the balance sheet

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 14:39 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

u massochist..
c JP 13:39 for webcast link

Belgrade Knez 14:37 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS


John,
can you post the link where one can watch Draghi speach please?

jkt abel 14:37 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

:) thank you Draghi, selllllll euro

GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Draghi comments NOT EUR supportive.

GVI Forex 14:30 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Draghi Testimony:
EZ growth momentum has weakened
Lack of structural reform downside risk to EZ
Willing to take more unconventional measures

GVI Forex john 14:26 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Industrial Production miss

10-yy 2.306% -1.2bp

2.30% in play??

Singapore SC 14:18 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

eur$ weaker. Did Draghi say anything because US data was weak?

GVI Forex john 14:18 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization October 2014




ALERT
Ind Production: -0.10% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +1.00% (r +0.80%) prev.
Capacity Utilization: 78.90% vs. 79.30% exp. vs. 79.30% (r 78.90%) prev.

RLEASE: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization



TTN: Live News Special Offer



More Charts

Mtl JP 14:04 GMT November 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

I almost feel ridiculous posting
eurchf Pivot 1.2016
Sup 1 1.2008
Sup 2 1.2003
Sup 3 1.1995

Mtl JP 13:39 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

at Top of The Hour
Hearing at the European Parliament on 17 November 2014
At 15:00 p.m. CET Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, speaks in front of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament.
Webcast

GVI Forex john 13:35 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Empire PMI November 2014




ALERT
10.16 vs. 12.0 vs. 6.2 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer


U.S. Charts: http://goo.gl/tQwKPr

makassar alimin 13:33 GMT November 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

JP, i think you are right looking at eurgbp

GVI Forex john 13:28 GMT November 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

JP- Picking the direction in JPY is not difficult, but calling the timing is very tricky. It can hold steady for months before it suddenly moves.

GBP used to be like that, but its linkage to news has tightened.

Mtl JP 13:22 GMT November 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

john 12:28 - re "USDJPY a major focus"
does that make usdyen your preferred choice pair to allocate trading resources ?

Mtl JP 13:17 GMT November 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

I suspect euro is riski pony to play unless it makes a new low

Mtl JP 13:09 GMT November 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

for me every trade is a consideration and choice of allocating limited resources (I do not have legislated ability to print)

Hence... I chose gbpdlr. A short. Still think this puppy has +/- 200 southerly pips to go.

Sanibel Is. Fl sir Ignore 12:53 GMT November 17, 2014
E/$
Reply   
gm…now have long at 1.2495..the stop is for a cutback of 1/2 if
2480 seen and for all off if 2452 reached..169sma…in downtrend (daily) less weight against trend..but weekly trying to bottom again and monthly perhaps so also..
tp 2578 again..seems righteous..gl all..

GVI Forex john 12:28 GMT November 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

USDJPY a major focus
R2 117.38
Pivot 116.29
S2 115.19

wide range so far with S1 and R1 both breached

GVI Forex john 12:24 GMT November 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD
R1 1.2581 (HOD 1.2578)
PIVOT 1.2490 (Neutrality)
S1 1.2434


GVI Forex john 12:12 GMT November 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System



EUR Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels, Support and Resistance. Chart Point tables. chart icon to store in browser tab.



GVI Forex john 12:07 GMT November 17, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.



Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





manila tom 11:42 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

i think usdjpy is still going up until xmas

Mtl JP 11:34 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

numbnuts Abe and Kuroda are playing a confidence game with fiscal policy. MSM headlines were screaming shock and surprise when they opened the spiggot. Now for a second time MSM headlines are screaming shock and surprise. The third MSM shock and surprise screaming may very well come when market loses confidence.

manila tom 11:28 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

JP if usdjpy 145, euro will be below parity?

manila tom 11:27 GMT November 17, 2014
sell euro
Reply   
sold 1.2501, stop 1.2538, open target

jkt abel 11:25 GMT November 17, 2014
long eur/usd

those guys never use stop loss, only focus on target, that's why it is funny

GVI Forex Blog 11:25 GMT November 17, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The session was all about the JPY currency following the surprise contraction in Japan's Q3 GDP data. The weak GDP report had broadened the case for not hiking the tax, and instead argued for additional fiscal and monetary stimulus and for snap elections

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Japan data and weekend G20 highlight renewed concerns of a global economic slowdown

gc sf 11:09 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

thru 10 resistance @ 36 + 65

but the immediate downward bias is out of the market

tomorrow is going to be another busy Asia Session with Abe making a bunch of announcements obviously

so there is a big difference in closing NYK @ 115.85 or 116.45 .. in terms of what may happen tomorrow.

london red 11:03 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

not sure about that JP, have 120/12150 nxt yr not betting on higher til that tgt reached. abv 124 possibility of 135/140. lot of water to cross first.

GVI Forex Blog 11:02 GMT November 17, 2014
Big Japan GDP Miss. Draghi Testimony Due. Global Flash PMI's Start on Thursday
Reply   
HIGH IMPACT NEWS: EZ- ECB's Draghi, US- Industrial Production

Japanese preliminary 3Q14 GDP fell well short of expectations, contracting by 0.40% (-1.6% pa). Falling inventories and weak retail sales data were blamed for the miss. Undoubtedly, the planned sales tax hike will have to be postponed and the JPY will remain at risk for additional weakness.

Big Japan GDP Miss. Draghi Testimony Due. Global Flash PMI's Start on Thursday

Mtl JP 10:55 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

red - lets help it ... not weaken but collapse
how does 145 usdyen sound ?

london red 10:47 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

john, annualised -1.6% thats bad. exports continue to be subdued despite yen. they have no choice but to do more. it wont make any difference for japan, but they have to be seen doing something. so the yen will weaken further over the coming months.

GVI Forex john 10:46 GMT November 17, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply   

17 November--  10:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
European markets are opening the new  week in a  RISK OFF posture Today saw early worse than expected Japanese GDP data which threw the economy into a technical recession. Dealers continued to unwind long GBP positions.

In the Far East, equities ended sharply lower. European bourses are down. U.S. share futures are lower. The U.S 10-yr note yield is down. 10-yr bund yields are lower  Gilt yields are down. European peripheral bond yields are mixed.




The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.


Singapore SC 10:42 GMT November 17, 2014
long eur/usd

You guys have a stop for long eurusd?

GVI Forex john 10:10 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Blame inventories for the Japan GDP miss. Technical recession. Japan quarterly GDP reading of -0.40% is not annualized.

Paris ib 09:53 GMT November 17, 2014
China, Syria and Murky Geopolitics

"Should we really be worried about war between the United States and China? Yes." Michael Pillsbury

Obviously the guy has no idea about finance. If there were any preparations going on the Chinese would be bailing out of Treasuries FIRST. Which would dent the USD and the Treasury market and the U.S. economy. The war would be over without a shot being fired.

China and the U.S. preparing for war?

GVI Forex john 09:49 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

EARLIER: preliminary 3Q14 GDP misses. More doubts about JPN sales tax increase.

bali sja 09:49 GMT November 17, 2014
sell euro
Reply   
tried short euro 1.2496, stop 1.2528

Paris ib 09:45 GMT November 17, 2014
China, Syria and Murky Geopolitics
Reply   
"American and Chinese analysts... warned of a “tipping point” in China-US relations beyond which the two conclude conflict is unavoidable and begin preparing for war..... renowned Chinese military expert Michael Pillsbury penned a Foreign Policy article entitled “China and the United States are preparing for war.”"

I'm not sure what this article is on about. It adds to the murky information about Syria and Chinese nationals operating with ISIS or perhaps Assad or perhaps supporting BOTH sides in the current conflict? Who knows? What I do know is that the idea that China and the U.S. are preparing for war AGAINST EACH OTHER is bunk.

For as long as China hold 1 trillion in U.S. Government debt there is absolutely no chance of a war between the powers. In fact you could make the point that China is funding the U.S. war effort. What is 'murky' to me is this whole Middle East scenario. We don't even seem to really know who the 'players' are. But more scare mongering...... the point of which escapes me.

Syria, China and the U.S.

GVI Forex john 09:43 GMT November 17, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

BREAKING NEWS: Japan 3Q14 GDP





Earlier NEWS ALERT

qq: -0.40% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. -1.80% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

jkt abel 09:36 GMT November 17, 2014
long eur/usd

yes JP, very
seen high of the week on monday?

Hong Kong AceTrader 09:29 GMT November 17, 2014
AceTrader Nov 17: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY)
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

17 Nov 2014 08:06GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Although the greenback fell sharply from a fresh 7-year peak at 117.06 to as low as 115.48 in Asia on long-liquation and risk-off trade on the back of fall in Nikkei (N225 ended the day down 2.96% to 16973.80), price rebounded once the European traders entered the market and climbed back above 116.00 level in European morning.

Offers are noted at 116.15/20 and around 116.30 with mixture of offers and stops located at 116.50, whilst bids are placed at 115.80-70 and then 115.50 with stops emerging just below 115.46.

Japan EconMin Akira Amari said:
'given state of economy, high chance PM Abe to decide some form of economic stimulus;
any stimulus package wud need to balance growth n fiscal discipline;
may be difficult to compile an exceptionally large stimulus package;
measures to help low-income households one option but up to PM Abe to decide stimulus details.'

Japan Chief gov't spokesman said 'Abe to make decision tomorrow on economic measures.'
Also earlier Japan PM adviser Hamada said:
'Japan economy a little bit unstable;
April consumption tax hike negative direction for Abenomics;
important for Japan to cut corporate tax to attract foreign investors and keep Japanese investors;
sees some signs gov't is seriously considering sales tax hike delay;
sales tax should be gradually raised.'

london red 09:28 GMT November 17, 2014
long eur/usd

yen driving prices with eurjpy the drag on euro. once worked thru, euro can rebound. euro hourly trendline 12473, 200 hour 59. past low 39.

Mtl JP 09:27 GMT November 17, 2014
long eur/usd

abel you think that is funny ?

jkt abel 09:27 GMT November 17, 2014
long eur/usd

follow Lahore FM, keep buying king usd against everything else!

jkt abel 09:18 GMT November 17, 2014
long eur/usd

say goodbye to your money LOL

prague mark 08:53 GMT November 17, 2014
long eur/usd

Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.2520 Target: 1.2580 Stop:

also in

Kaunas DP 08:50 GMT November 17, 2014
long eur/usd

Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.2530 Target: 1.2555 Stop:

placed buy stops

1.2530
1.2535
1.2540

all for tp 1.2555

GL

PAR 08:40 GMT November 17, 2014
Japan

Collaps of Japan good for US markets as it pushes down already low US treasury yields . Yellan happy .

Kaunas DP 08:33 GMT November 17, 2014
long eur/usd
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.2525 Target: 1.2555 Stop:

long

london red 08:10 GMT November 17, 2014
euro
Reply   
marginal higher high made (25775 vs 25778 and 774 vs 776 on a couple of trusted providers), so you have to buy dip in euro. some supports at 12515 12502/99, hourly trendline at 12479 currently. former lower at 12439 is the pivot, switch to resumption of bear trend below there. for now, its possible that the region between 12686 and daily trendline currently at 12769 gets tested.
yen. 116.05/10 res. if they clear that you've got the former gap low at 116.36 and 116.83. had a good run and theyre out of bullets for now so need to look for some downside while high holds out. 200 hour might not be safe but prev low 11386 should be with hourly trendline currently at 114,79 a good place to rebuild. a failure to hold the prev low almost certainly takes us to fill gap down to 11247.

PAR 08:04 GMT November 17, 2014
Japan
Reply   
Another proof that zero interest rates , massive government debt and QE are a recipe for disaster.

The ultimate solution for Japan will be default on government debt of over 250% of GDP .

jkt abel 07:21 GMT November 17, 2014
sell euro
Reply   
i am and will be selling euro on upticks to 1.26, stop above 1.2650

gc sf 07:10 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

And if you start telling me that Russians are buying AUD - then that would probably give me a heart attack !

that would go down as the greatest fake out in History.

gc sf 07:01 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

I am retired - as I have enough money to not have to sit on a desk - or worry about what other people do anymore - so I guess if you still are - then you have some catching up to do .. LOL ... nothing you can do about getting old :(

but in saying that - I read from Westpac just last week - that Japanese buying of Audyen totalled 30 mio in the last period which was the lowest in 10 years ... so yeah I'll take Westpacs word over yours for now Martin. I would imagine obviously I don't know but if that is all they are doing in AUD - then EUR + GBP aren't significant either.

GT

GC gcm 06:54 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

That tells me that you have no idea about current Japanese flows, institutional or personal..don't kick yourself....99% of those here have no idea either...enjoy your retirement...lol
Wizard of Oz

gc sf 06:37 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

I don't think the average Japanese Person has the overseas assets to sell anymore .. and the prospect of them accumulating them has just been shown the door.

the only ones with foreign assets are the large companies who are there for life.

but it is the whole idea that all of a sudden the average person is going to make more money / spend more money and drive a recovery just isn't happening ... and that is hurting $YEN .. because all the expected flows are not going to come.

if we are in a bearish market it should turn lower and head down to 114.60 ... seems the bullish pattern for today has gone.

I suppose we could trade sideways 115.10-85 till more people digest what this actually means .. above 116.10 will mean something is changing... but it is bit quiet at moment to see how much energy this market has left.

dc CB 05:41 GMT November 17, 2014
AceTrader Nov 17: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

ZeroHedge view

UPDATE: The crazy-talk is out already...

AMARI: ABENOMICS HASN'T FAILED
SUGA: INVENTORIES, WEATHER, CONSUMER MINDSET CAUSED GDP FALL

Japanese GDP fell for the 2nd quarter in a row making it official - as we warned a month ago - that Japan has entered a triple-dip recession. Againstr hope-strewn expectations that the rebound from a sales-tax-driven slump would create a magical 2.2% (annualized) expansion, Japanese GDP slumped 1.6% in Q3 - missing by the most since March 2011.

So no tax increase... and thus fiscal responsibility goes out the window. Abe dissolves government and bails on another failure? The initial kneejerk reaction sent USDJPY surging back over 117.00 (and NKY followed) but that has quickly reversed

Abenomics Officially Leads Japan Into A Triple-Dip Recession - Weather Blamed

GC gcm 05:03 GMT November 17, 2014
jpy

When Japanese fear a recession or some sort of financial risk occurring domestically, they become risk averse and start to do 2 things: 1. spend less domestically and hoard more into their savings accounts and most importantly 2. they start to repatriate yen back home meaning they liquidate their most liquid foreign investment holdings ( which are mainly in USD,) convert them to Yen and bring them home.
That equates into a stronger yen as they buy yen and sell usd.
Just thought I share of over 20 years of first hand experience with dealing with this pattern.
signing off
Wizard of Oz

jkt abel 04:54 GMT November 17, 2014
jpy
Reply   
japan in recession and jpy strengthen? where is the logic?

Hong Kong Qindex 04:46 GMT November 17, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2348

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:




As shown in the weekly cycle analysis the next upside barrier is 1.2578. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to overcome the resistant point at 1.2636.


Qindex.com



==============================================


Hong Kong Qindex 15:46 GMT November 9, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2348 : Reply
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:



EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2348

As shown in the monthly cycle directional indicator the market was able to pickup some support at the critical range of 1.2348 - 1.2357. The next upside targeting points are 1.2556 and 1.2693. The market is stable when it is trading above 1.2880.

Qindex.com

Quantum Index Analysis

Cape Town LV 04:22 GMT November 17, 2014
Eurozone Economic Survey - Bloomberg (NOV)
Reply   
How important is this survey results for the EUR/USD?

Cape Town LV 04:07 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

My price is now 17080

Cape Town LV 04:04 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

Thanks sf. I understand that

gc sf 03:59 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

just keep in mind - there are differences between my prices and if your trading actual futures

the main thing is - to have something live that lets you know where the market is moving.

GVI Forex Blog 03:58 GMT November 17, 2014 Reply   
Expect much volatility in this data-packed week. Though we have started off on wrong foot with

Morning Briefing : 17-Nov-2014 -0358 GMT

Cape Town LV 03:56 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

Thanks

gc sf 03:54 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

I use Dec 14 N225 CFD Price

Cape Town LV 03:52 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

Areyou watching N100?

gc sf 03:36 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

ok - that is done

in a bearish mkt we would drop back to 65-68
in a bullish mkt we would move up to test 10

so we just wait on the Nikkei to move.

gc sf 03:05 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

we got down to 115.45 @ 17015

Nikkei now up to 17115 .. so we are trying to test that 85-90 breakdown point where things got accelerating.

Mtl JP 02:47 GMT November 17, 2014
AceTrader Nov 17: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

the "unexpected" is that someone forgot to fudge the numbers well enough to cover things up - dont expect rtrs to report everything
-
short gbpusd against R1

dc CB 02:40 GMT November 17, 2014
AceTrader Nov 17: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

"Reuters reported Japan's economy unexpectedly slipped into recession"

*****UNEXPECTEDLY????????????????

I thought that's why Kuroda and ABE were printing like made...to stop from slipping into recession. I thought that's why Draggiii want to print...what's this UnexPecTED crap.

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:33 GMT November 17, 2014
AceTrader Nov 17: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

17 Nov 2014 01:45GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Despite a brief jump above Fri's 116.82 top to a fresh 7-year high of 117.06 after Japan's Q3 GDP unexpectedly contracted, intra-day sell off in the Nikkei (N225 fell from 17409 to 17133) triggered broad-based buying of yen on risk aversion in Asia.

Reuters reported Japan's economy unexpectedly slipped into recession in Q3, setting the stage for PM Shinzo Abe to delay an unpopular sales tax hike n call a snap election just 2 years after he took office.

GDP fell at an annualised 1.6% pace in July-September period, after it plunged 7.3% in the 2nd quarter following a rise in the national sales tax.
The economy had been forecast to rebound by 2.1% in the 3rd quarter.

Abe had said he would look at the data when deciding whether to press ahead with a 2nd increase in the sales tax to 10% in October next year, as part of a plan to curb Japan's huge public debt, the worst among advanced nations.

Japanese media have said the PM, who returns from a week-long tour to China, Myanmar and Australia on Monday, could announce his decision to delay the hike as early as Tuesday and states his intention to call a poll, which ruling party lawmakers expect to be held on Dec. 14.

Etsuro Honda, an economic adviser to Abe who opposes the tax rise, has said that if growth was under 3.8%, raising the tax rate would be "out of the question".


This week will see the release of the following economic data:

New Zealand retail sales, Japan's GDP, U.K. Rightmove house price, EU eurostat trade, U.S. New York Empire state manufacutring, ECB Draghi's speech, U. S. industrial production on Monday;

Australia's CB leading indicator, Westpac leading index and RBA meeting minutes, China house prices, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. PPI, Redbook, NAHB housing market index, net L-T flows, overall net capital flows and foreign buys on Tuesday;

BoJ interest rate decision, EU current account, BoE MPC Vote outcome, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. building permits, housing starts, FOMC minutes on Wednesday;

Japan's export, imports, trade balance and manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, BoJ monthly economic survey, Germany's producer prices ad Markit service PMI, EU Markit PMI, U.K. retail sales, CBI trade, Canada's wholesale trade, U.S. CPI, Markit manufacturing PMI, Philly Fed business index, existing home sales, leading index change and consumer confidence on Thursday;

U.K. PSNCR and Canada CPI on Friday.

Provo John 02:28 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

Actually, just found one. Free Nikkei Live Chart

gc sf 02:23 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

testing 17000/10 level - which is -580

as you can see in $yen any intraday buyers have thrown in the towel thru the 85 level.

gc sf 02:19 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

mine is from my FX Broker - but your from the US so maybe they don't offer it to you.

maybe look for a UK cfd provider and see if they offer some live rates for the indexes - you can pop up on your screen.

gc sf 02:08 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

Nikkei going through the days low now -460 from the high

I'm not sure how much selling is left to do at these levels to be honest.

If you look for supports past where we are now 115.85 115.40 .. then not much until 114.60 after that.

to take the pressure off the downside we need to get above 116.35.

can't say much more at this point because the intra-day trend has been to sell any rally at all.

Provo John 02:00 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

What do you use for your feed?

nw kw 01:18 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

hang seng strength------------nzd

gc sf 01:04 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

-380 Nikkei now from the high.

nw kw 00:44 GMT November 17, 2014
eurusd

EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (NOV)
High
0.5 -3.6

eur can be getting good reports

nw kw 00:41 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (3Q P)
High
-1.6% 2.2% -7.3%

Tallinn viies 00:32 GMT November 17, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
as last week high is taken out I would turn more attention to upside from now on.
1,26 target for the week

gc sf 00:30 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

Nikkei down 300 now .. pushed $yen down again.

If your trading $yen - you really need a live Nikkei Feed - as Nikkei tends to move before $yen.

gc sf 00:26 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

the other point to note in Asia today - we actually are buying AUD and moving it higher .. really for the last 2-3 sessions it has spent more time going down.

nw kw 00:20 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen

see if chfjpy support gives looks supported ////I need feed back on usachf cot

gc sf 00:10 GMT November 17, 2014
$yen
Reply   
Nikkei sells off 230 points - $yen follows.

 




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