gc sf 23:57 GMT November 18, 2014
$yen
If you missed FM's earlier Post - I believe he sold the Nikkei @17420 area ..
so the first 100 pts should be interesting.
MY CFD has it 17370 now
17360 - 17455 range since NY Close.
Northeast TB 23:22 GMT November 18, 2014
eurusd
How about 1.2460-1.2560?
Tallinn viies 23:09 GMT November 18, 2014
eurusd
Reply
range for today 1,2500 - 1,2600
GVI Forex john 21:37 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Weekly US API DatA
NEWS ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: +3.700 vs. -1.000 exp vs. -1.740 prev.
Gasoline: +0.520 vs. +0.500 exp vs. +1.800 prev.
Distillates: -3.000 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -2.800 prev.
Cap/Util: 89.90% vs. n/a exp vs. 90.10% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
Paris ib 21:24 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
According to this data foreigners increased their holdings of long term securities in the U.S. by 152 billion in the month of September alone BUT in the entire 12 months up to and including Sept the total buying was 51 billion. So foreigners bought way more in the month of Sept than in the entire year prior. This data is slightly strange IMVHO.
TIC data
Paris ib 21:16 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
"The figures released showed China and Japan, the two largest foreign holders of Treasuries, reduced their stockpiles in September 2014. China�s holdings dropped $3.4 billion to $1.27 trillion, while Japan�s fell $9 billion to $1.22 trillion, the data showed......"
gc sf 21:11 GMT November 18, 2014
$yen
I use Pepperstone where
$yen is 116.9111/116.916
but I pay a commission per trade
98% of my trades are performed by EA's running on VPS's running MT4
I just have a master screen in front of me watching the trades - enter/exit - and where they place there s/l - t/p
Also I use 2 other brokers - but the trades posted here are all the highest performing trade EA's on Pepp.
They are a mix of range trading and breakout trading strategies basically on FX + Gold.
Mtl JP 20:56 GMT November 18, 2014
$yen
sf 20:52 - "Bot sold more $yen @942 and bought GBP 353"
Bot = Robot (and not slang for bought?)
942 & 353 = u r using 5 decimal and not 4 decimal quotes ya ?
tia
gc sf 20:52 GMT November 18, 2014
$yen
Bot sold more $yen @942 and bought GBP 353
Mtl JP 20:50 GMT November 18, 2014
S&P 500 to USDJPY Correlation
today in NY s&p 500 gained +13.30 points or +0.65%
today in NY dlryen saw a low of 116.32 and close of 116.77
basically while US stocks galloped, usdyen wallowed
correlation in NYT session: lazy and lousy
PAR 20:35 GMT November 18, 2014
BOJ
Reply
BOJ may surprise
GVI Forex john 20:28 GMT November 18, 2014
S&P 500 to USDJPY Correlation
Lets start with this because it is already set up on my system. Others to follow
gc sf 20:22 GMT November 18, 2014
S&P 500 to USDJPY Correlation
would it be possible for you to overlay a chart
showing point movement in the Nikkei by hour vs point movement in the dow
that way we could see better the spread - and which is the better to trade at which times.
my thought would be Nikkei will be better for 16 hours of the day.
GVI Forex john 20:08 GMT November 18, 2014
S&P 500 to USDJPY Correlation
you can watch the Nikkei trade all day in the U.S. via their futures in Chicago. S&P futures trade all night as well and the two markets are also highly correlated. In fact all the major equity indices pretty much as a bloc, but time differences mask it.
Paris ib 20:07 GMT November 18, 2014
eurusd
viies - please take it to the political forum.
Tallinn viies 20:06 GMT November 18, 2014
eurusd
Reply
Paris ib 19:05 GMT - Putin is showing real class indeed.
So far he is showing almost similar class as stalin, hitler, saddam hussein, etc.
only one thing is missing from the puzzle - killing own people in russia. I think we just need to wait several years and he has done it real class there also
gc sf 19:59 GMT November 18, 2014
S&P 500 to USDJPY Correlation
John .. all s/p does is set the opening level for Tokyo
then the markets are driven solely by Nikkei.
We have seen 3 cases where they tried to buy $YEN but the Nikkei dropped 200 350 and 550 points and $yen dropped a lot more than people expected.
I would argue Nikkei is the most important market there is at the moment in terms of generating FX Volatility.
Also I would add despite many "+" S/P closes many a time Nikkei has dropped 200 points on the Open.
GVI Forex john 19:52 GMT November 18, 2014
S&P 500 to USDJPY Correlation
Reply
We mentioned over the weekend that our data over the past four weeks shows a correlation of a near perfect 0.96. Correlations run from -1 (perfect negative correlation) to 0 (no relationship to +1 (perfect positive correlation).
Statisticians warn that correlation is not causation. That is something we have to figure out ourselves.
The if there is causation, we have to figure out which are the dependent and which are the independent variables.
When it comes to USDJPY and the Nikkei. I think I can make a case for the exchange rate driving the index, and as a result Im thinking the USDJPY impacts the S&P rather than vice-versa.
The USDJPY to S&P chart today has been working exceptionally well today with the USDJPY apparently leading..
Any thoughts? Also is there way to trade this?
gc sf 19:50 GMT November 18, 2014
$yen
Reply
Bot just sold @893
to me though seems 68-70 is support - that has to break to see any real downside.
which obviously depends on the Nikkei.
So Tokyo Open is pretty important again today bit later on.
Paris ib 19:05 GMT November 18, 2014
He likes Koalas After All
Putin showed some class with his remarks which is more than can be said for some of the other goons.
gc sf 18:45 GMT November 18, 2014
He likes Koalas After All
Reply
"Russian President Vladimir Putin has praised the Australian government for the atmosphere at the G20 summit in Brisbane.
"(Our) Australian partners created an extraordinarily welcoming atmosphere for work. I was surprised by the warmth with which normal Australian citizens received our delegation," Putin told a forum of supporters in Moscow, according to an official transcript on Tuesday.
Putin also added praise for Prime Minister Tony Abbott.
Putin's comments defied media reports that the Russian president was so frustrated at being sidelined and subjected to tough talk by Western leaders that he left the summit early."
Lahore FM 18:38 GMT November 18, 2014
" Trade Ideas "
Sell
Entry: 4241 NASDAQ DEC Target: 3600 Stop: 4345
sold NASDAQ too
Lahore FM 18:36 GMT November 18, 2014
" Trade Ideas "
Sell OTHER
Entry: 17420 Nikkie dec CORRECTION** Target: 16500 Stop: 17560
Lahore FM 18:29:19 GMT - 11/18/2014
1720 = 17420
also sold intc 34.80,sl 35.40 target 32.00
Lahore FM 18:26:34 GMT - 11/18/2014
Sell OTHER
Entry: 1720 dec Nikkie** Target: 16500 Stop: 17560
sold now.
GVI Forex john 18:31 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
It can't be good for the USD if Obama continues to steer away from the center.
Lahore FM 18:29 GMT November 18, 2014
" Trade Ideas "
1720 = 17420
also sold intc 34.80,sl 35.40 target 32.00
GVI Forex john 18:28 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Obama spokesman says he will not support the Keystone XL pipeline bill.
Bill has passed House and is due for a Senate vote @ 18:00 EST. The Senate vote will be very close.
Obama playing to his left.
Lahore FM 18:26 GMT November 18, 2014
" Trade Ideas "
Sell OTHER
Entry: 1720 dec nasdaq Target: 16500 Stop: 17560
sold now.
Mtl JP 18:12 GMT November 18, 2014
New Record on S and P
dc CB 15:17 / can we short 2050 SnP into the close today without risking the shirt ?
Mtl JP 17:41 GMT November 18, 2014
ABE
re "Japan is arguably most fit for the job. Geostrategically, it is America's most valuable ally in countering China's growing "
I don't believe Japan has any such role in reality. It is much more preferable for power players to work together (by seeking to control money/banking/gov't) than to outright fight.
picture of how vulnerable Japan is to a match.
In peacetime, Japan's state stockpile equals about 92 days of consumption and the privately held stockpiles equal another 77 days of consumption for a total of 169 days or 579 million barrels - wiki. Under the mutual US/Japan defense/attack contract, Japan would be just a tactical liability.
Paris ib 17:30 GMT November 18, 2014
ABE
Watch TIC data released at the close. Though how reliable it is I don't know. What we know so far is that China stopped buying new U.S. Treasuries a while ago.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:26 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
JN, see my earlier post about EUR crosses. So far it has not made a serious attempt at 1,2550 despite the cross demand.
Perhaps the SNB defense of 1.20 (EURCHF currently 1.2010) is creating some EURUSD demand as well.
Paris ib 17:24 GMT November 18, 2014
ABE
JP - I'm sure China has noticed. The question is what and if there will be a response? And what type of response? When you think about this it is either just a great big case of theatre for us fools 'the public' (so we cower in fear and give the authorities more power and more money) OR this is real and there will be a response: China begins to defund the United States. Though that could be tricky. It would have to be done quickly but quietly. You wouldn't want to risk 'sanctions' and getting your 1 trillion USDs frozen in the United States FOREVER.
Mtl JP 17:19 GMT November 18, 2014
ABE
China has probably noticed 0bama's G20 sheriff-like proclamation that "the US would work �day in, day out, steadily and deliberately� to deepen its military, economic and diplomatic engagement � saying that by the end of the decade a majority of the US navy and air force would be based out of the Pacific because �the United States is and always will be a Pacific power" ... supposedly "a blunt message for China, raising the question of what role China wanted to play in the region and insisting China � currently engaged in territorial disputes in the South China Sea � must �adhere to the same rules as other nations, whether in trade or on the seas�. He underscored his assertion threatening that "America would have a bigger defence presence in south-east Asia, including Singapore, finalise new defence guidelines with Japan, deepen missile defence collaboration with the Republic of Korea, rotate more marines through bases in northern Australia and conduct more counterterrorism training with the Philippines".
Paris ib 17:12 GMT November 18, 2014
ABE
"Japan is arguably most fit for the job. Geostrategically, it is America's most valuable ally in countering China's growing assertiveness, while Abe possesses the political will to push for Japan's more prominent role in maintaining the region's security."
So Shinzo Abe supposedly works for the Japanese people (well of course all politicians represent their people ha ha) but works for the United States.
This being the case the policy of USD/JPY appreciation is likely to continue and to be warmly welcomed by 'the markets' and the United States. Why? Damage to China's economy.
Japan and the Asia Pivot
Paris ib 17:05 GMT November 18, 2014
ABE
Excuse me... that should read 'to match the JPY devaluation' the USD/JPY has (of course) risen quite dramatically.
I wonder how China likes that? I would suppose not at all.
Mtl JP 17:03 GMT November 18, 2014
Correlations
but unlikely to dissuade goremoron from his global warming bs
Paris ib 17:02 GMT November 18, 2014
ABE
JP - Will China unpeg from the USD ? If we have tit for tat devaluation then China would need to do unpeg its currency from the dollar to match the USD/JPY devaluation. Right now the rise in the USD/JPY puts China at a disadvantage trade wise.
Other scenario: China sell USD bonds and give the Japanese portfolio a good kicking.
How likely is either?
Paul Craig Roberts asserts Japan is merely a U.S. vassal state. So maybe what is going on in Japan is aimed at China, which the U.S. seems to have a problem with. In the current environment China suffers economically and there is potential military confrontation to be had if Japan rearms (another Shinzo Abe policy aim). Fun all round. I do believe they call it: Full Spectrum Dominance.
Full Spectrum Dominance
dc CB 16:57 GMT November 18, 2014
Correlations
Buried in Snow: Lake-Effect to Continue Into Friday.
south of Buffalo, calling for 5 to 7 feet.
Paris ib 16:56 GMT November 18, 2014
ABE
"Takao Toshikawa, editor-in-chief of InsideLine... said that the worst case for the LDP would be a loss of �30 to 40� of its 294 seats. That could still leave it with a comfortable majority in the 480-seat lower chamber of parliament, the more powerful of the two, given the 31 seats held by Komeito, its alliance partner."
Then Shinzo Abe gets to:
1) Turn on the Nuclear Power Plants
2) Kick off a bit or military spending
FT on Japanese election
Mtl JP 16:55 GMT November 18, 2014
ABE
ib 16:51 Japan toast
it will burn when China starts to screw Japan with the yuan
Paris ib 16:51 GMT November 18, 2014
ABE
"Abe�s ruling camp holds an absolute majority of 325 seats in the chamber and therefore has few technical obstacles to pushing through its bills......
A campaign as early as next month will likely strengthen the ruling camp and Abe himself.
The prime minister plans to submit controversial bills to the Diet in the spring, including those based on his reinterpretation of the Constitution to expand Self-Defense Forces� missions overseas."
Bit of geopolitics: Japan rearms. Buys weapons from the U.S. and puts pressure on China (a new emerging economic and regional power the U.S. has some problems with).
Japanese election
Mtl JP 16:51 GMT November 18, 2014
Correlations
yes Hawaii - where it was -7C atop Mauna Kea a dormant volcano
dc CB 16:44 GMT November 18, 2014
Correlations
Mtl JP 14:32 GMT
early morning weather news showed all 50 US States experiencing temps below freezing
Including Hawaii?? :)))
Shuffle off to Buffalo, NY State and the shores of Lake Erie. Got SNOW!
... Erie County...
Lancaster 48.0" 1015 am 11/18 amateur radio
1 S East Lancaster 42.0" 1000 am 11/18 near Como Park
Elma 37.2" 820 am 11/18 cocorahs
Alden 36.0" 930 am 11/18 social media
1 WNW Orchard Park 36.0" 910 am 11/18 dept of highways
hk ab 16:37 GMT November 18, 2014
ABE
PAR, when Abe is swept away, possible of avalanche style retracement.
dc CB 16:34 GMT November 18, 2014
DREAMER
one bank is already set to benefit from the ABS program no matter what its actual outcome and impact on the European economy: the same bank that spawned none other than ECB's head... Mario Draghi.
According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Group says it�s adding staff to its European asset-backed securities business as the bank prepares for a resurgence in the $305 billion market that shrank more than 40 percent over the past four years.
Why? Because the ECB is there as a backstop and will buy the worst of the worst as it rushes to become Europe's bad bank, pardon bad hedge fund.
The Biggest Beneficiary Of Mario Draghi's ABS-Purchasing Plan Has Been Revealed
GVI Forex john 16:33 GMT November 18, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
18 November-- 16:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Markets have moved to a RISK ON
posture following the much stronger than expected
German ZEW Survey. Also the JPY recovered after Japanese PM Abe
confirmed a postponement of
the Sales Tax increase by 18 months and called for a snap election for
December 21. U.K. inflation data were mixed.
In
the Far East, equities ended mostly lower. European bourses are ending
broadly higher.
U.S. shares are up. The U.S 10-yr note yield is a touch lower. 10-yr
bund yields and Gilt
yields are narrowly mixed. European peripheral bond yields are mixed.
The
heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.
Tallinn viies 16:33 GMT November 18, 2014
eurusd
Reply
eurusd now ready to test 1,2580 as long as 1,2500 contains. most likely see test of new monthly highs within next 24 hours.
Paris ib 16:28 GMT November 18, 2014
ABE
Politicians as a class are dangerous, that people who are seeking power over us are not, by definition, our friends.
James Bovard
Mtl JP 16:22 GMT November 18, 2014
ABE
PAR if you are positioned for it and the call comes in you will be a hero and make out like a top bandit
Paris ib 16:20 GMT November 18, 2014
ABE
PAR - Yeah but so what. Do you really believe that an election changes the direction of a country?
PAR 16:19 GMT November 18, 2014
ABE
Reply
Imho it is very unlikely ABE will be reelected after all the financial repression he imposed on Japanese housewives.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:17 GMT November 18, 2014
A Warning to All Forex Traders: The Market Isn't Your Enemy!
kl, this is a timely article and suggest reading it for a day like today.
One of the first articles I posted when we started GTA was entitled, The Market Isn�t Your Enemy. I was reminded of it last week when I saw a trader, one who is experienced, fall into the trap of treating the forex market like it was his enemy. This article is still one of my favorites in our role as a trader�s advocate and I will explain why as follows:
A Warning to All Forex Traders: The Market Isn't Your Enemy!
kl fs 16:16 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
save the bullet, better levels tomorrow probably after fomc
GVI Forex Blog 16:15 GMT November 18, 2014
Reply
November 18, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, November 19. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- BOJ Decision, GB- BOE Minutes, US- House Starts & Permits, Fed Minutes
GVI Forex Data Outlook for November 19, 2014
kl shawn 16:12 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
yes frustrating, no follow through though, just marginal new high, sell again?
GVI Forex john 16:04 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
November 18, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, November 19.
Updated: Trading News Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP- BOJ Decision, GB- BOE Minutes, US- House Starts & Permits, Fed Minutes
- Far East: JP- BOJ Decision.
- Europe: GB- BOE Minutes.
- North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, House Starts & Permits, Fed Minutes.
Paris ib 16:03 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
We're pretty close to the highs of the day in EUR/USD... more stops are likely above today's highs. You don't have to look far to guess where the stops are. We have levels published right on this forum. The market is still long USDs overall. This might be a move pushed by stops being triggered to start off with then we see what kind of follow on there is.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:55 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
As I posted on GVI Forex
Either there have been big flows or it is a market that is caught the wrong way on EURGBP as the cross remains bid and testing .8000+ again.
Offsets out of this cross + EURJPY (146+) have put a bid under EURUSD
My point is the EUR buying is not mainly vs. the USD, which is the conduit for the cross flows
It would take a solid move through 1.2578 to get the retracement calls going.
Paris ib 15:24 GMT November 18, 2014
New Record on S and P
So when does the Soros Fund close out its massive PUT ?
Paris ib 15:21 GMT November 18, 2014
New Record on S and P
CB - right. It's gonna be an interesting close to the year. We could see a lot of records. European markets have more upside, that's for sure. The opening next year should be even more interesting. :-)
perth wtr 15:18 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
oh well, very frustrating this euro, should have closed earlier and reload
anyway, so long as high of the day is not breached...
dc CB 15:17 GMT November 18, 2014
New Record on S and P
The 10Y auction was last week, Done.
There are 2s,5s,and 7s next week M,TU,WED. But the 10Y was the main one.
But End Of Month and Low Volume Holiday, 1/2Day Fri after Thanks
Did not change my mind.
Paris ib 15:06 GMT November 18, 2014
New Record on S and P
CB - Changed yr mind?
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Paris ib 16:31:42 GMT - 11/07/2014
CB - you think we charge up to 2050 now?
dc CB 16:45:30 GMT - 11/07/2014
no. there's Treas to sell next week.
What happened when Happy Day's Are Here Again, in Stocks.
Treas Yields went up.
GVI Forex john 15:02 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
NAHB Index continues to outperform. Homebuilders are perpetual optimists.
nw kw 14:36 GMT November 18, 2014
Correlations
Siberian HI has not set in im at 0
Paris ib 14:36 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
I wonder what the Japanese have to choose from in the way of politicians. Probably like the rest of us they have no real choice. Just a bunch of party apparatchiks going through the motions. Meanwhile taxes get levied, wages fall, wars are waged and the environment is destroyed.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.
It tolls for thee.
Mtl JP 14:32 GMT November 18, 2014
Correlations
early morning weather news showed all 50 US States experiencing temps below freezing
nw kw 14:28 GMT November 18, 2014
Correlations
opeck at the end of the month oil had draw down and failed to go up
Mtl JP 14:22 GMT November 18, 2014
Correlations
wti at 75 is off $1.50 from overnite high.
that is a 2% drop from 76.50
dlrcad has not moved anywhere near that percentage
something is not working
perth wtr 14:10 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
reload short euro 1.2525, as long as today's high intact....
Mtl JP 14:03 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
the musical chair risk would be screetching sound of "He is not risking much with the vote." - GVI Forex 13:24
I suppose it ll depend on how easily the Japanese collective can or not be bamboozled and fickle Japanese politics can be this time around with Abe promising even harsher anti-deflationary medicine for Japanese people.
hk ab 13:38 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
JP, we once experienced it in 1995 and 1998.... everyone knows the rule of the music chair......
Mtl JP 13:34 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
Japan is sooo screwed ... if an earthquake wont sink it, numbnuts will
Stakes in gaming Japan will offer players either massive gain or massive losses. Ladies and gentlemen... chose your weapons and take your positions.
nw kw 13:29 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
oil has the vote for pipe line looks like it will pass
Paris ib 13:28 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
The election: "He did not give a date for the election, but the media consensus is that it will be on Sunday, December 14."
Japanese Parliament will be dissolved November 21. And we get to guess the likely election date. This is gonna be fun. Not a lot of clarity from Japan. :-)
TIC data to be released in the States right on market close. So unlikely to get much press.
Abe and the Election
nw kw 13:27 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
https://www.google.ca/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=Abe+
has+asked+the+Finance+Minister+
to+prepare+a+stimulus+plan&tbs=qdr:d
GVI Forex 13:24 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
Opposition to Abe is in disarray. He is not risking much with the vote.
Mtl JP 13:20 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
"I need to hear the voice of the people. I will step down if we fail to keep our majority because that would mean our Abenomics is rejected." - numbnuts Abe
In polls the Japanese collective currently supports him at 50%
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:15 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
EURUSD tested 1.25 on Oct 3 vs. current bid 1.2511
USDJPY closed at 109.74 on that day vs. 116.58 current bid (+6.2%)
GVI Forex john 13:12 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
fwiw- I heard somewhere, but I am not sure where that PM Abe has asked the Finance Minister to prepare a stimulus plan. Can anyone confirm?
dc CB 12:54 GMT November 18, 2014
The New New Normal
Reply
In a flash, the bond market went wild.
When the day began on Oct. 15, an unprecedented number of investors were betting that interest rates would rise and U.S. government debt would lose value.
The shift came all at once. The sentiment that the Fed would raise rates reversed. Traders who�d bet against, or shorted, Treasury bonds had to buy as many as they could as quickly as they could to limit their losses. By 9:38 a.m., 10-year Treasury yields plunged 0.34 percentage point, the most in five years.
blame the herd mentality of electronic traders.
�A lot of these guys are focused on speed,� Bianco said. �They�re all uncreative and write the same program. When the stimulus comes in a certain way, every one of them comes to the same conclusion at exactly the same moment.�
Flash Boys Raising Volatility in Wild New Treasury Market
Hong Kong Qindex 12:36 GMT November 18, 2014
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2348
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR/USD : Weekly Cycle Trading Reference
--- 1.2222 - 1.2259* - 1.2296 - 1.2315 // 1.2334* - 1.2352 - 1.2371 - 1.2390 - 1.2409* - 1.2427 - [1.2446] - 1.2465 - 1.2483* - 1.2502 - 1.2521 - 1.2539 - 1.2558* // 1.2577 - 1.2596 - 1.2633* - 1.2670 ---
Qindex.com
Quantum Index Analysis
kl fs 12:26 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
tighten stop to BE, dont like if it is going above 1.2520 again
nw kw 12:24 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/business/international/auto-sales-europe.html?partner=socialflow&smid=tw-nytimesbusiness&_r=0
nw kw 12:23 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
Auto Sales in Europe Rise for 14th Consecutive Month
NY JM 12:00 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
Look at EUR crosses (e.g. EURJPY, EURGBP) if you are looking for a reason why EURUSD is at 1.25xx and not making a run at 1.24.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:44 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
I posted this on GVI Forex yesterday morning and it is now 8 out of 12 days and 3 days in a row that 1.25 has traded. It is also consistent with my week ahead outlook where I cited 1.24-1.26 as the range.
1.25 => has traded 7 out of 11 days in Nov. other days highs were 1.2470, 92, 98, 99
kl shawn 11:07 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
fs, i am trying this one once more also short 1.2520, stop 1.2547 should suffice
kl fs 11:03 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
got stopped out but reload short 1.25183, stop above today's high, then will reassess
singapore td 11:00 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
good luck those under 1.25 and 0.87, see you in a few months time
GVI Forex john 10:59 GMT November 18, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Reply
18 November-- 10:45 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Markets have moved to a RISK ON
posture following a much stronger than expected
German ZEW Survey and after Japanese PM Abe confirmed a postponement of
the Sales Tax increase by 18 months and called for a snap election for
December 21. U.K. inflation data were mixed.
In
the Far East, equities ended mostly lower. European bourses are higher.
U.S. share futures are lower. The U.S 10-yr note yield is down. 10-yr
bund yields and Gilt
yields are down. European peripheral bond yields are mixed.
The
heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.
london red 10:58 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
ib, they are printing money, they want to weaken their currency. they try this every few years and it always ends it tears but what else can they do. for me 120/12150 then i will reassess.
gc sf 10:56 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
hahaha no
Just $DEM was so much more fun/profitable.
This whole ECB and Draghi -- it is just like buying a $7 bottle of wine -- it is ok once or twice -- but in the long run you prefer something with more quality.
Paris ib 10:47 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
sf - hahahaahahahhaha
You could be waiting a while though. :-)
Why do you say that anyway? You want more crosses to trade or you have some economic / political point of view there?
gc sf 10:45 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
as for EUR .. the sooner the whole thing explodes and we get the $DEM back the better.
gc sf 10:40 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
on my CFD says Nikkei 17300 - the level we traded hours and hours today
during that time $YEN traded 116.50-60
so we are just back to where it all started basically.
for Asia tomorrow depends on the closing price of today.
Paris ib 10:39 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
John - sometimes the market just expects whatever just happened unexpectedly. Like a loop. But why new stimulus would be announced on the back of the surprise stimulus we just had doesn't make sense if you stop and think about it.
No announced new election date either. Bit of confusion over there in Japan it seems to me.
GVI Forex john 10:36 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Agree, I am not sure where those reports about a stimulus program were being sourced. I think he would have mentioned it by now?
Paris ib 10:36 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Calls of 145 and conspiracy theories:
"An easy explanation is that Japan is being ordered to destroy its currency in order to protect the over-printed US dollar. As a vassal state, Japan suffers under US political and financial hegemony and is powerless to resist Washington�s pressure."
Dr Roberts again
Paris ib 10:31 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
After recent developments the idea that EVEN MORE new stimulus is to be announced is a bit far fetched. The BoJ has already jumped the shark (perhaps they knew the GDP before hand) to do any more would look like outright panic. Let's face it they have already panicked. Not a good look. Now they have to look at least semi in control. Or at least business like.
Paris ib 10:28 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
red - 120? I've heard calls for 145 on this forum. Meanwhile Gold is up 1.46% today so if anything what's clear is the increased distrust in paper money. What floored me yesterday was the ECB official talking about the possibility of buying Gold, the point of which escapes me in terms of 'stimulation'.
ECB could buy Gold.
Amman wfakhoury 10:24 GMT November 18, 2014
AUDUSD 0.8682 confirmed
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 20:07 GMT 11/17/2014
AUDUSD 0.8682 cofirmed will be reached .return level 0.8738
any rise above it will return to it. sell and add sell @0.8785 .
___________________
0.8682 reached
The only one in the world who confirms the next level
Paris ib 10:24 GMT November 18, 2014
TIC data released today
Reply
Given the mumbling about disaccord between the U.S. and China it will be interesting to see if there is any change in the Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasuries. If there is not then the 'talk' of conflict is just that: talk.
"It was actually the Obama's administration's "pivot to Asia" that disrupted this process of common development and unnecessarily sowed discontent by pushing conflicts to the front and center."
Is China making trouble?
GVI Forex john 10:24 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
No surprises from Abe so far: 18 mo delay of consumption tax, Snap elections to be called on Friday for Dec 21.
Nothing on new stimulus yet.
bali sja 10:21 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
nervous belly buttons out there, just one fat finger rogue trader needed today?
london red 10:20 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
travelling and arriving ib, fx 101. were going to 120/121 just not in one week.
Dar Es Salaam FM 10:19 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
The effect of Abe talking saying that it will take 18 month to implement those selling tax and market react
nw kw 10:17 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
red-is FTSE 100 leading and is there dividends in FTSE
Paris ib 10:16 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
USD/JPY taking a belting. What's that about? Just USD selling emerging or is there more to it?
Paris ib 10:13 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
sja - Sure there is always a two way market. There is this unspoken assumption out there that any new Japanese foreign stock market buying will all be headed to the U.S.. When the market is biased in it's assumptions it's a fair call to question those assumptions. I'm not saying we have hit bottom in the Euro. But I would be cautious on Euro bearishness. Euro is headed higher on all the important crosses today (up nearly a percent against the AUD)......
london red 10:13 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
12439. past low. inverse shs until broken. eurgbp wkly trendline 8007 holding for now (7987 sup, below takes edge off move), keeping price action honest. a break there tgts lvls i mentioned yest. euro trendline 12492 again if below neutral.
Syd 10:10 GMT November 18, 2014
RBA�s Stevens: Likely further decline in AUD to come
Reply
Investors in FX markets underestimating risk of decline in aussie dollar
Yields on Australian assets attractive to foreign investors
Productivity needs to improve for quite a long time
RBA can�t fine tune transition from mining investment
Material risk AUD will go lower
Stevens comments coming in following the earlier release of the RBA minutes
AUD/USD slips to 0.8703 from 0.8745
Paris ib 10:09 GMT November 18, 2014
German ZEW Survey November 2014
On August 4 Credit Suisse released a report entitled: "Europe: Don't Believe the Bad News" which outlined why growth should rebound in Europe in coming months. That report is worth another look.
"While many banks have been reducing lending to strengthen their balance sheets ahead of the central bank�s impending Asset Quality Review process, that process will be over by autumn."......
So the jury is still out.
Credit Suisse
GVI Forex john 10:09 GMT November 18, 2014
German ZEW Survey November 2014
German ZEW Survey. Much stronger than expected. EURUSD higher.
DE charts=> http://goo.gl/cMwmm1
bali sja 10:05 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
ib, some stops triggered but still below 1.2550, still chance to go down...
Paris ib 10:03 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
Stops triggered. That didn't take long. Now we get to see if Friday was a warning sign or a blip. I note Gold is up strongly again. Like on Friday. Something in the market is changing.
singapore td 10:01 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
be careful of what you wished for re. subdued things, ciaooo...
Paris ib 09:59 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
I'd say the chances that the 1.2520 buy stops DON'T get triggered are pretty slim. European stock markets all strongly positive. Draghi was supportive of the EuroZone economy yesterday - i.e. supportive of expansionary policy - and judging by the posts here the majority is still in favour of selling the Euro and short.
kl fs 09:57 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
yes shawn, i will be worried if gbpusd climbs to 1.5720 again and audusd stay above 0.8760, still sell on pops so far
kl shawn 09:54 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
i think so too fs, fading this early London's euro bid, adding 1.2512
at least audusd and gbpusd are subdued
kl fs 09:52 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
adding short euro here 1.2515, above 1.2540 then all bets are off
london red 09:45 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
aldi and co continuing their invation of british supermarket space, causing a drag and no end in sight with brit firms alloting multi billion war chest to lower prices in combat. lower oil means continued lower ppi and cpi. weak eurgbp keeping inflationary prices at bay too.
great news for the xmas shopper.
GVI Forex john 09:42 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
PM Abe speaking now earlier than expected...
GVI Forex john 09:38 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
U.K. CPI & RPIX mixed to above expectations. GBPUSD up, but no new pressure on BOE to tighten.
U.K. Charts
GVI Forex john 09:35 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Inflation data a touch higher than expected, but they are seen lower in the near term as lower energy prices start to hit.
GVI Forex john 09:32 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
October 2014 UK CPI/RPIX
-- NEWS ALERT --
CPI mm: +0.10% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. 0.00% prev.
CPI yy:+1.30% vs. +1.20% exp. vs. +1.20% prev.
RPIX yy: +2.40% vs. +2.30% exp. vs. +2.30% prev.
UK Core Output PPI
yy: +0.90% vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +0.80% prev.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Indices
TTN: Live News Special Offer
london red 09:27 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
maybe better to travel than arrive in case of yen. hourly close not just spike abv new high 11706 would put that theory to bed, otherwise 11645/30 pullback maybe.
GVI Forex john 09:22 GMT November 18, 2014
BREAKING NEWS
Japan' PM Abe press conference due in an hour
Expect:
- Sales tax delay by 18mos
- Call for snap elections
- JPY 2-3 tlm stimulus package
Nothing new here USDJPY has already spiked higher.
london red 09:20 GMT November 18, 2014
morning view
eurgbp. daily trendline 8027, weekly lt trendline 8007, couple of fibs 8013. downside, fib at 7951 (fibs 51/54) then daily trendline at 7926 couple of fibs 22/23.
gc sf 09:12 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
Bot sold out of $yen @86
Range Bot sold some EUR @88
london red 09:01 GMT November 18, 2014
morning view
Reply
kiwi. once again approaching the 38.2 of 0.65/0.88 at 7970. there has been no daily close above this level despite many forays to 80 cents. its been bull trap after bull trap. in addition we have an upper channel line at 7998 today. a close above these two res argues for a retrace to 38.2 of 0.88/0.77 at 8108.
cable. cpi coming up and market is taking a pretty sanguine approach as normally this one has been frontrun lower. f/c are for 1.2/1.3 depending on who you talk to. given this mornings approach, you expect the market to run with any beat. but after the weekly close below 15721 (opening up 152/1535), you should be looking to sell rallies, with 15786 the main one and of course the 15721 below it.
perth wtr 08:49 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
adding previous short euro now at 1.2492, last addition, stop all still the same above 1.2520, this last one is 1.2538 i think will do
makassar alimin 08:25 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
try sell some euro here as well while below 1.25
manila tom 07:43 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
short euro 1.2485, add 1.2520-1.2530 if get there, stop above 1.2560, target open
manila tom 04:14 GMT November 18, 2014
sell audusd
Reply
give wfak a try, selling aud 0.8725, stop 0.8745, target 0.8680 and below
gc sf 03:57 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
we are just glued to 17300 level .. hopefully we get something moving here soon.
gc sf 02:39 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
your right that when AUD + NZD are bid the xxx/jpy tends to do better
but you have to open a trade somewhere -- you can always adjust it later.
nw kw 02:33 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
compare aud/usa to eur/aud and eur/gbp strang eur strength this time day
gc sf 02:29 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
EUR
B/Out style trading bot sells @73
target 1.2349 + 1.2272 / s/l is above yesterdays high
these type of strategies have a lot more risk due to much wider stops etc
Nikkei basically on my CFD Provider seen 17250 - 17350 .. now 17290
gc sf 02:21 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
$YEN
my bot went long @454 not even sure it qualifies as a trade given the events of today
overall we know that when 116.20 holds the market remains in bullish position .. so I guess for immediate bullish phase that would be the level to be watching ... hold vs break.
kl shawn 02:07 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
selll euro 1.2473, agree with viies' 1.2380-1.2480 today, it clearly does not like 1.25
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:38 GMT November 18, 2014
AceTrader Nov 18: Intra-Day News and Views (AUD/USD) & data to be released today
Reply
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Nov 2014 00:31GMT
AUD/USD - ........ statement from RBA minutes, quote:
- Australia C.bank minutes repeat outlook is for period of stability in rates
- A$ above estimates of fundamental value, providing less help to economy
- BoJ stimulus, Japanese pension fund flows could keep A$ above fundamental value
- RBA board cited considerable uncertainty over China property market, impact on economy
- domestic growth running at moderate pace, to remain below trend until late 2016
- very low rates, growing population to support housing market, home building
- higher home prices filtering through to household wealth and consumption
- RBA board noted lending to home investors rising noticeably faster than to owner occupiers
- mining investment still set to fall sharply, offset by rising resource exports
- RBA board noted non-mining investment not being hampered by cost or availability of finance
- labour market subdued, would be some time before unemployment fell consistently
- sluggish wage growth to help keep inflation in line with target range
Tuesday will see the release of Australia's CB leading indicator, Westpac leading index and RBA meeting minutes, China house prices, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. PPI, Redbook, NAHB housing market index, net L-T flows, overall net capital flows and foreign treasury buys.
FW CS 01:34 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
Kl
not sure if it will get there today but jpy I think will see those levels soon.
FW CS 00:43 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
1.25, 1.2438, then 1.2390. Closes in eur below in increasing bearish order. So far 1.2438 holding on closing basis.
kl fs 00:34 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
short euro 1.2464, stop 1.2525, thanks for the heads up Perth WTR
perth wtr 00:30 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
ok let me take the plunge short euro 1,2462, adding near 1.25, stop all 1.2520, target 1.22-1.23
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 00:27 GMT November 18, 2014
Asia Tuesday
Abel here is a suggestion, stick to your own trading and no reason to dump on others. Get the hint?
perth wtr 00:26 GMT November 18, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
Reply
ok, so looks like we all agree to make money on short euro and buy usdjpy today
jkt abel 00:24 GMT November 18, 2014
Asia Tuesday
true gc sf, afterall we dont want to kill this wonderful contra indicator, please post more often our friends from kaunas and praque, otherwise i dont know which position to take ;)
gc sf 00:13 GMT November 18, 2014
Asia Tuesday
I think today is perhaps simpler than yesterday because people will want to just see 1 main thing:
a. Abe still has a plan and has a future executing it.
b. Abe has no plan / no idea and no future
Traders will have a much tighter leash on trades today.
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