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Forex Forum Archive for 11/19/2014

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KL KL 23:57 GMT November 19, 2014
Long Audusd

ok last post and Long audusd again .8595...super quick and keep repeating this 6-10 pips 100 times......today...that is my Fields of dream...too busy...too good to trade day!! gl gt ..

KL KL 23:31 GMT November 19, 2014
Long Audusd

covering 1/3 AUDUSD long here .8606...rest stop .8602....and lets see who dare sell come the Big Boyz time in 1.5 hour time.....bring it on.... ALL my Armada accounts are ready to launch counter attack to save the AUSSIE......LOL...or Gold plunge.....LOL

gc sf 23:22 GMT November 19, 2014
Asia
Reply   
Hopefully we get bit more action today than yesterday - as it took till after lunch for the USDYEN bids to get stronger

and we actually did a similar thing yesterday -- shot above 10 - sat here for a while then went down and tested 78-83 before moving back through 10 and not really falling below it again.

also this $YEN / Nikkei relationship need to see whether that gets back on track or we stay apart.

if you look at the most likely range in Asia for $yen its

117.80 / 118.50 then potentially 119 in London

if for some reason we did get under 117.80 then you would have to expect that 117.58-63 area to hold... and the only reason for it to go that low would be some comment by an official saying the market is moving too quickly or something like that.

Right now my Nikkei CFD level is 17475.

Anyone else trading Asia with thoughts / views please join in.

KL KL 23:14 GMT November 19, 2014
Long Audusd

ha ha... 2nd cherry bite long AUDUSD here .8599...Ultra relentless....cover same place or 7-10 pips higher.......

GVI Forex Blog 22:57 GMT November 19, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
* Yen slides as speculators gun for 120.00 target

* Fed minutes dovish, but see little danger in dollar gains

* Swiss opinion poll shows gold vote likely to lose

FOREX-Yen in full retreat, Fed unalarmed by dollar strength

GVI Forex john 22:42 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



November 19, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, November 20. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP & CN- flash PMI, EZ- flash PMIs, GB- Retail Sales, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- CPI, Weekly Jobless, flash mfg PMI, Philly Fed, Existing Homes Sales

  • Far East: JP & CN- flash PMI.
  • Europe: EZ- flash PMIs, GB- Retail Sales, CBI Ind Output, EZ- Consumer Confidence.
  • North America: US- CPI, Weekly Jobless, flash mfg PMI, Philly Fed, Existing Homes Sales, Lead Indicators, Nat Gas.


GVI Forex john 22:32 GMT November 19, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System




USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





GVI Forex john 22:27 GMT November 19, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   
EUR Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





GVI Forex Blog 21:39 GMT November 19, 2014
Fed Minutes Dovish Bias. Bank of Japan Steady. Bank of England Less Dovish than Seen
Reply   
TOP NEWS ITEMS: JP & CN- flash PMI, EZ- flash PMIs, GB- Retail Sales, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- CPI, Weekly Jobless, flash mfg PMI, Philly Fed, Existing Homes Sales

Fed Minutes Dovish Bias. Bank of Japan Steady. Bank of England Less Dovish than Seen

london red 21:34 GMT November 19, 2014
eurusd

not sure its a pivot in the traditional sense as dont use them either. just the label i use for a trend breaking/making level.
upside target, i have the former breakout level and filled gap at 12686. the next may or may not be reached and need 12686 to get done. an upper channel (12744) taken off recent lows c.125 and c.124. the second channel i have is off the 16 sept and 15 oct tops at 12758. these are falling a few points each passing day. a couple of fibs at 12727 and 12787 plus 3 monthly lows from 2013 in 12745/55 range make up the picture for me. was considering using the 89 day ema currently 12884 as a marker for any failed bull trap but even if we do a higher high abv last months 12887 youve still got monumental selling interest expected at 12965/13017.

GVI Forex john 21:16 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

THURSDAY
01:45 CN HSBC flash PMI key sentiment measure
08:00 FR MFG PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:00 FR SVC PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:28 DE MFG PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:28 DE SVC PMI flash key sentiment measure
08:58 EZ flash MFG PMI key sentiment measure
08:58 EZ flash SVC PMI key sentiment measure
09:30 GB Ret Sls consumer demand
13:30 US CPI Fed targets inflation
13:30 US Initial Claims weekly jobless
14:45 US Mfg MKt PMI flash key sentiment measure
15:00 US Existing Homes Top Housing Statistics
15:30 US EIA Crude impacts crude prices
FRIDAY  
13:30 CA CPI BOC targets CPI
14:00 EZ Draghi expect a dovish tone

Tallinn viies 21:08 GMT November 19, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
personally not using pivots but 1,2440 key level for me also. at least under this level downtrend resumes and may extend down to 1,18sh even this year.
so right now trying to play euro long side as long as 1,2440 contains and as monthly trading range too small still and only 6 working days to go. I expect euro to extend trading range from higher. would be possible to crawl even up to 1,27sh during next week.

GVI Forex john 20:38 GMT November 19, 2014
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 20:22 GMT November 19, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

10-YR 2.358% +2.0BP
virtually unchanged from before the minutes...

london red 20:19 GMT November 19, 2014
eurusd

sounds good viies. past low 12439 was the pivot. held it this week in low 40's so thats the line in sand for me. inverse shs in play (12686/12740) while that holds. interim support 12482. nothing changed really.

gc sf 20:17 GMT November 19, 2014
eurusd

so we maybe talking about EURYEN 150/150.50 by friday close then

as $YEN seems bullish . downside seems 117.60-70 for 118.50 /120

and you feel EUR supported between 10/30 for 1.26 +

GVI Forex john 20:15 GMT November 19, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


Tallinn viies 20:12 GMT November 19, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
if euro will be able to stay for next 2 hours over 1,2510 then plan for tommorow to buy euro with target 1,2650.
stop under 1,2460-

GVI Forex john 20:11 GMT November 19, 2014
CHART POINTS: Gold, Oil & S&P
Reply   
Pre-Closing...


dc CB 20:09 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

118+ ...yenny henny penny

less than 24 hrs....the 120 Express...at this rate by Friday close

Paris ib 20:05 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

CS - pretending they are ready to hike if needed and knowing they can not do that without cratering the economy. I still go with incompetence. The way economics is taught is near on criminal IMVHO and what we got here is a bunch of academics who believe what they read in their text books.

gc sf 20:04 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

we did have 2 BOE People vote for a Hike - so at least there is 2 honest people - about where some of these interest rates should be heading.

FW CS 20:01 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Ib
or Make a list of honest officials in power that list will be very short. Fed wants to talk hawk but unwilling to be a hawk. A paper hawk so to speak. Reversal day in euro today as well down. Hmmm. Up down up down up down. Euro not ready to resume downtrend

dc CB 20:01 GMT November 19, 2014
Gee Yields Just went higher???

charting the "Woids of Da Fed"

The Bullard Bottom

dc CB 19:54 GMT November 19, 2014
Gee Yields Just went higher???

the question remains...

there was no "embargo" on the Hilzie WSJ art.

but someone....someone...knew and was shorting Treas Futures and jsut made a bundle on "Blue Horseshoe likes..."

Paris ib 19:54 GMT November 19, 2014
AUD

sf - :-)
I prefer working with humans if at all possible.

Paris ib 19:52 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

sf - with the FED I always get the impression they know there is some kind of huge problem just under the surface which they are scared witless will come out. What could that be? All the Gold is gone? (Looks pretty darn likely.) The U.S. needs to maintain offshore investor confidence at all costs (even at the cost of getting the Japanese to destroy their own currency and encouraging the ECB to do the same). I often wonder if we will ever find out what is really going on. I don't believe the statistics (deflation is an outright LIE) so you end up having to collect clues here and there to try and work it out. All I can say though is thank god for the internet. :-)

gc sf 19:49 GMT November 19, 2014
AUD

IB - I thought your explanation was worth $250,000 a year as RBA Head rather than his ... with all the information he has at his fingertips he still struggles to figure out the market.

Paris ib 19:47 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

CS - well then they should all be in jail. Honest to god is there anyone out there in a position of public trust these days who shouldn't be in jail? Make a list, I'm sure everyone in every country could add a dozen or so names without even trying.

dc CB 19:45 GMT November 19, 2014
Gee Yields Just went higher???
Reply   
oh, yeh the Ear of the Chair, just clarified whot all the Algo thought was the trade.

WOOOPSSS more Headlines to Trade-on. WHOT A CIRCUS
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
as ZH explains (everything you know is wrong)

Instead of reading between the lines of the 28 page FOMC minutes, we have The Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath to explain to us what we should believe. His message is not dovish.


Hilsenrath Confirms Hawkish Fed Focused Domestically, Rate Hikes Coming

gc sf 19:44 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

the soviets tried to operate to a plan

the only plan I see from the FED is sheer panic every time the Stock Market drops.... they almost seem like AIG - trying to insure every risk at any price -- the only difference being they can print the money... and they are underwriting all the major players at the same time.

KL KL 19:42 GMT November 19, 2014
Long Audusd
Reply   
Dooomsh...Long relentless AUDUSD .8611.....

Bring it on!!! Hot or Cold.....who cares...Buy cover 10 pips higher or where I made this entry.....DFM..DLTM..imvho and gl gt

FW CS 19:42 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Ib
If the answer is incompetence than one of these times you think they would make a mistake in our favor but that rarely ever happens. Fed still in a corner. Probably will now see damage control by other fed officials watch the hawks come out again.

Paris ib 19:39 GMT November 19, 2014
AUD

sf - transmission mechanism? USD/JPY up (on very interesting BoJ decisions), China gets hit with a higher exchange rate while pegged to USD, China has a slowdown, Iron Ore gets slammed, mining gets slammed and the Aussie gets trashed.

He got it right in a convoluted sort of way.

london red 19:38 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

117.95 resisted once. if 70 holds will test again.

Sydney ACC 19:37 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Expecting top temperature of 35 centigrade in Sydney today. Its 6:37 and its already 23 degrees

PAR 19:35 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

FED is like the former Soviet Plan Bureau , they keep allocating capital to the wrong sectors .

Tallinn viies 19:35 GMT November 19, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
1,2530-1.2630 would say if new starts but NYC still few hours in

GVI Forex john 19:34 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

re: recent poor weather yesterday was the coldest November day in NORTH AMERICA in nearly 40 years!

50% snow cover on the continent is over a month early. Significant snow cover leads to seasonal cold weather. Upstate N.Y. is expecting six feet (2 meters) of snow!

No doubt this is the fault of "global warming" again!

gc sf 19:33 GMT November 19, 2014
AUD
Reply   
the RBA Guys whole argument for the AUD going down was based on the US Economy picking up and adjustments happening faster than anywhere else.

Really what he should have said was $YEN up AUD Down.

Paris ib 19:33 GMT November 19, 2014
$Yen

sf - you spoke too soon. :-)
Let's see what happens at 118.50.

gc sf 19:28 GMT November 19, 2014
$Yen
Reply   
not sure what to make of this

despite 117.80 holding - despite more dovish Fed news we still can't retrace down to 10-20

I suppose it shows that this market is v. well bid... full stop.

gc sf 19:25 GMT November 19, 2014
EUR
Reply   
Viies - what do you think for the EUR Range from here ?

you did very well with the 1.2500-1.2600 call yesterday.

Paris ib 19:23 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

CS - have you ever imagined what it's like to be in their shoes? I have. Either they are grossly incompetent and have no idea why 'things' are not working like they are 'supposed to' or they are deliberately taking down the economy. In the first case they are just totally confused and trying to look like they are in charge. In the second case they know their policies will have god awful results down the road and they have moved all their assets to Paraguay (or similar). Moi, I go with incompetence.

PAR 19:23 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Recent bad weather another reason to stay cautious .

FW CS 19:20 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

ib
I think the Fed will continue to talk tough but not raise or raise ONCE then that is it. They cant raise without destroying the economy/bond market and they know it. Loss of confidence as you said their credibility took a big hit.

Paris ib 19:19 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

JP - you may have noticed that economic conditions on what is casually termed 'the street' are not exactly stellar. This past decade and a half of FED speak and fiddling with short term rates and bond yields (QE) hasn't exactly yielded the results which were promised.

USD taking it on the chin. You a buyer then?

Mtl JP 19:17 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Rep. Steve Cohen, a Tennessee Democrat, at a House Judiciary Committee hearing, suggested a moat around the WH roughly six-feet wide may be “attractive” and “effective.”

Paris ib 19:15 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

CS - agreed. Japan wanted and GOT a massive currency devaluation - for reasons which are not altogether clear. I'm not sure that the U.S. can go in for something like that. Japan still has a savings glut. The U.S. certainly does not. Either way I think the FED has really sunk in status this past decade. Indeed, since towards the end of the Greenspan era. Now they are getting to be a bit of a laughing stock. Not a good look.

GVI Forex john 19:15 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Bottom-line: Dovish Fed tone...

dc CB 19:14 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



JP

they do give the Best Guidance.

WmBanzai7 needs to update this one with a Gammy Theme

Mtl JP 19:14 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

credibility issue ... about what issue exactly ?

Paris ib 19:12 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

PAR - I think u'll find the record was yesterday. So far today not so much.

Paris ib 19:11 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Out of bullets except for say backdoor QE which may or may not have an impact on the currency down the road. Do they have a credibility issue? God yes.

PAR 19:11 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Stocks at new record high after another round of extra dovish FOMC comments .

Mtl JP 19:11 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

"guidance" - as long as players breathlessly await it - is still a bullet

FW CS 19:09 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

ib
Their next move would be a Japan style QE announcement this current Fed is nothing but talk. They talk hawk but then do nothing at game time. So it was all a bluff

GVI Forex john 19:07 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

press release

final paragraphs...

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee anticipates, based on its current assessment, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program this month, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, October 28-29, 2014

Paris ib 19:07 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

So slightly dovish. Next FOMC meeting what are they likely to do? Nothing at all. And the meeting after that. Same. And after that. Same. But we could examine their little statements for a clue about what? About what type of economic conditions the U.S. is likely to face in say 6 months? Yeah right. On hold till we get new economic information. Which is not likely in the very short term. No room for further easing in any case. They're out of bullets.

dc CB 19:06 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

*FOMC OPTED NOT TO MENTION FINANCIAL MARKET TURMOIL AFTER DEBATE

they just sent Bullard Out to remind the markets about the Yellen Put..."The Bullard Bottom".

So what could they say in the Minutes...the Greenspan/Bernanke/ now Yellen PUT is alive and kicking the Short's Butt?

GVI Forex john 19:03 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Fed Policy Minutes






NEWS ALERT
U.S. Fed Policy Minutes
-- all but one was in favor of considerable time language

-- one opposed end of bond buying program in October

-- concern about lower inflation


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex 18:56 GMT November 19, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

10-yr 2.354% +1.6bp

Mtl JP 18:56 GMT November 19, 2014
FOMC Minutes

on the odd chance that we see pull back first

london red 18:56 GMT November 19, 2014
FOMC Minutes

watch 11795. needs to break (then 11850) to continue momentum else they might just take a bit of profit. initially to 117.10 and take it from there as that could be all. so youd want to buy that with a tight stop and if fails target 11630.

Paris ib 18:54 GMT November 19, 2014
FOMC Minutes

JP - so if it breaks up you're a buyer, if it falls you're a buyer. Why wait for the minutes? :-)

dc CB 18:50 GMT November 19, 2014
FOMC Minutes

by Reykjavík District Court earlier this morning for market manipulation between November 1, 2007 and October 3, 2008.

Nine months of the sentence are suspended for two years, visir.is reports. The period which Sigurjón was held in police custody will be deducted from his sentence.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

and in the US, as ZH reminds

Number of bankers jailed in FY 2014: 0
Number of bankers jailed in FY 2013: 0

Former Landsbanki CEO Sentenced to 12 Months Prison

Mtl JP 18:49 GMT November 19, 2014
FOMC Minutes

I think I may want to play the minutes via usdyen
go with a price break UP or
buy a dip
-
watch out for widening spread no matter what puppy you may be playing

Paris ib 18:33 GMT November 19, 2014
FOMC Minutes

Falling stocks and falling yields would do the trick. But we're not there yet.

Mtl JP 18:21 GMT November 19, 2014
FOMC Minutes

should not those minutes be floating around somewhere in cyberspace by now ?

Mtl JP 18:11 GMT November 19, 2014
FOMC Minutes

usdyen is a buy around (or against) 116.75/50
what would need to hit the newswires to actually turn the trend ?

Paris ib 17:59 GMT November 19, 2014
FOMC Minutes

CB - last night USD/JPY and the Nikkei decoupled. Developments from here on in might be interesting.

dc CB 17:53 GMT November 19, 2014
FOMC Minutes

The Algos will go bonkers as each "headline" goes on the wire.

fwiw: the USD/JPY is up 230 pips from the wacko Sell off Sunday nite when the "Unexpected Recession" hit.

There is not sense....US Stox will make New New Highs again today, no doubt. Gold and Silver bounced back.

Paris ib 17:52 GMT November 19, 2014
FOMC Minutes

JM - you gotta love a rigged market. :-)

NY JM 17:51 GMT November 19, 2014
FOMC Minutes

... and half the world got the minutes in advance.

Paris ib 17:47 GMT November 19, 2014
FOMC Minutes
Reply   
Bit of a joke expecting a surprise from these minutes. QE is over - at least officially - and there is no room to cut rates. So we have a monetary policy void with potential for rates and yields to rise over time. We all know this already.

GVI Forex john 17:01 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

CALENDAR CORRECTION: Fed Minutes are @ 19:00 GMT, NOT 18:00 GMT.

Sorry for the inconvenience!

GVI Forex Blog 16:58 GMT November 19, 2014 Reply   
November 19, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, November 20. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP & CN- flash PMI, EZ- flash PMIs, GB- Retail Sales, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- CPI, Weekly Jobless, flash mfg PMI, Philly Fed, Existing Homes Sales

GVI Forex Data Outlook for November 20, 2014

GVI Forex john 16:55 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



November 19, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, November 20. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: JP & CN- flash PMI, EZ- flash PMIs, GB- Retail Sales, EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- CPI, Weekly Jobless, flash mfg PMI, Philly Fed, Existing Homes Sales

  • Far East: JP & CN- flash PMI.
  • Europe: EZ- flash PMIs, GB- Retail Sales, CBI Ind Output, EZ- Consumer Confidence.
  • North America: US- CPI, Weekly Jobless, flash mfg PMI, Philly Fed, Existing Homes Sales, Lead Indicators, Nat Gas.


GVI Forex john 16:27 GMT November 19, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Reply   

19 November--  16:30 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Markets are in a MIXED RISK posture as European markets close for the day.The Latest Fed Minutes are due later today.  U.S..Housing data were mixed to stronger than expected. There was no change in the BOE 7-2 vote for the fourth straight month not to tighten policy  Member comments were less dovish than many had expected..The Bank of Japan did not surprise with its policy decision today to continue QE at its pre-existing pace. USDJPY is trading higher.

  • In the Far East, equities ended mostly lower.10-yr JGB yields closed steady. 
  • European bourses are closing mixed. 10-yr bund and UK Gilt yields are closing higher. European peripheral bond yields are mostly up.
  • The U.S 10-yr note yield is a touch higher. U.S. shares are down.



The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

dc CB 16:25 GMT November 19, 2014
Gold Slam

most likely it was the Swiss poll that was let out early...that got the PMs slammed.

Mtl JP 16:20 GMT November 19, 2014
Gold Slam

on second thought , if only half of gv members e-mailed a rectification demand to the FED ...

dc CB 16:18 GMT November 19, 2014
Gold Slam

11:05 Index Train left the Station.

Got Snow---

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23lakeeffect&src=hash&mode=photos

Mtl JP 16:06 GMT November 19, 2014
Gold Slam

ask the traders' advocate to take your complaint to ... the pope ?

GVI Forex john 16:05 GMT November 19, 2014
Gold Slam

Why would ANY private entity be on a list for direct receipt of Fed Minutes? I get an email about 15 mins AFTER Fed releases. I want mine when JPM gets theirs!

GVI Forex 16:05 GMT November 19, 2014
Swiss Gold Referendum

11:00(CH) SRF Switzerland gold referendum poll shows 38% of respondents in favor of "Save Our Gold" referrendum, 47% opposed, 15% undecided

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 15:58 GMT November 19, 2014
Swiss Gold Referendum

you mean besides the pollster ?

GVI Forex 15:57 GMT November 19, 2014
Swiss Gold Referendum
Reply   
I think I heard TTN report that a poll on the gold referendum is coming out shortly.

EURCHF just popped, suggests someone has the results.

Mtl JP 15:56 GMT November 19, 2014
Gold Slam

" inadvertently " - who are they kidding ?!

dc CB 15:53 GMT November 19, 2014
Gold Slam

Nanex:

Eric Scott Hunsader @nanexllc
10:48:31 - 2270 Gold futures and 596 Silver futures trade in 1 second $GC_F $SI_F
10:49 AM - 19 Nov 2014

dc CB 15:51 GMT November 19, 2014
Gold Slam
Reply   
and Old 10:30 POMO algo got lose.

or maybe the Fed Mins got early distribution to those "who need to Know"

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/04/10/who-got-the-fed-minutes-early/

Who Got the Fed Minutes Early?

GVI Forex john 15:32 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

US EIA Weekly Inventories




NEWS ALERT
Crude Oil: +2.610 vs. -1.000 exp vs. -1.740 prev.
Gasoline: +1.000 vs. + 0.500 exp vs. +1.800 prev.
Distillates: -2.100 vs. -1.500 exp vs. -2.800 prev.
Cap/Util: 91.2% vs. n/a exp vs. 90.10% prev.
Weekly Petroleum Status Report




TTN: Live News Special Offer

dc CB 15:31 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation

For 'years' the US stock market has traded on 'fun-durr-mentals' - tracking USDJPY tick for tick day in day out as algos tickle leveraged currency trades to ignote momentum in US equities and guarantee 'proof' in the recovery. The correlation, however, between USDJPY and stocks (US and Japanese) has begun to deteriorate rapidly since Kuroda unleased Godzilla QQE... and today it is very clear...

First Japanese algos broke...

(Charts)

Algos - We Have A Problem

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:25 GMT November 19, 2014
Are Forex Broker Bonuses Achievable or a Sucker Bet?
Reply   


I have written articles about broker bonuses and this latest offer I received by email caught my attention. The promotion was for using a robot and offered a 100% bonus for a $1000 deposit. Typically an offer like this would make me run for the hills but this time it raised a topic for an article on whether bonuses are achievable.

Are Forex Broker Bonuses Achievable or a Sucker Bet?

Mtl JP 15:20 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation

note that "the summation of trading that comes out after 4PM ET"
now if it were a forecast that comes out before 8am ET...

GVI Forex john 15:17 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation

CB- thanks for that info. Its precisely what our data show.

My question has always been does such a tight relationship make any sense, or is this a case that a correlation has developed BECAUSE of the correlation. In other words has it become circular argument?

In any case, it works and ALL USDJPY traders should be aware of it.

dc CB 15:09 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation

fwiw, at least since the fall of 2012, when Abe declared his desire for a lower Yen...in an effort to boost the Nik, there has been exhaustive discussions about the relationship, and the Algos.
Esp, on Zero Hedge. Including the Aud/Jpy, and the Eur/Jpy, and their effect.

Every day in the summation of trading that comes out after 4PM ET, there is a set of charts Always included is a chart of the Yen v the USD, and occasionally v the EUR or the AUD and how it moved with STOX

Amman wfakhoury 15:03 GMT November 19, 2014
EURUSD in buy mood
Reply   
Buy and add buy if decline.

Mtl JP 15:01 GMT November 19, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

and maybe not just on ccy pairs ...
I know a one-time observation does not make a trend... but note
Mtl JP 18:25 GMT November 18, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On: Reply
S&P Chartpoints
Res 3 2053.69
Res 2 2048.38
Res 1 2045.08
Pivot 2039.77

-
and the S&P high was...

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:53 GMT November 19, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD R1 = 1.2571 vs. 1.25707 high

Click on the subject (above) to see this post

GVI Forex john 11:19 GMT 11/19/2014

I am still amazed when our pivots work and they now have a place in my (and perhaps your) trading toolbox.

Mtl JP 14:50 GMT November 19, 2014
EURUSD

watch gagging eurchf ?

Minneapolis DRS2 14:48 GMT November 19, 2014
EURUSD

Sorry...No fancy watches for me, I'm a Timex guy. "It takes a licking and keeps on ticking!"

Dillon AL 14:44 GMT November 19, 2014
EURUSD

JP its likely a Chopard

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:31 GMT November 19, 2014
EURUSD

Now back to 1.2550 after not making a serious run at 1.2578. I ti hard to see big bets, especially on the USD sell side, ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Mtl JP 14:28 GMT November 19, 2014
EURUSD

DRS2 what is the brand of the watch u r using to order price to go up/down ? tia

Minneapolis DRS2 14:11 GMT November 19, 2014
EURUSD

re JN 13:47: One of the best pieces of trading advice I ever read came from a long-time poster who I shall leave nameless. I'm going from memory here, but they said "markets breathe in, and markets breathe out".

Basically, the price goes up and it goes down depending on the buying or selling activity at the moment. If you look at EUR/USD, you'll see that it went down a little bit, then the buying took over and price jumped up.

How does this help you? Well, if you can time your buying and selling to match the market, you can make some great money. This is not an easy task -- it takes skill and experience and can take a long time to master. But once you start to successfully do so, your trading will really take off. I don't know your experience level so I may be speaking out of turn, but hopefully this helps...

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:04 GMT November 19, 2014
EURUSD



Stops run above 1.2550.

See 4 hour chart for key levels (1.2578) and then trendline + 200 period mva in the 1.26s. Damage only fatal if 1.2578 is firmly taken out.

I have not seen any reason for the flows but EUR crosses have put a bid under EURUSD since yesterday.

Miami JN 13:47 GMT November 19, 2014
EURUSD
Reply   
I asked this question yesterday and still have no answer.

Why is the eurusd trading higher?

Mtl JP 13:46 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

more like euro positive lol
1.26 should be Res

GVI Forex john 13:38 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Starts and Permits. Mixed data. On Balance USD positive?

GVI Forex john 13:30 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. House Starts & Permits (000) October 2014




NEWS ALERT
Starts: 1009 vs. 1025 exp. vs. 1017 (r 1038) prev.
Permits: 1080 vs. 1038 exp. vs. 1031 prev.


New Residential Construction



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 13:01 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation

trade that correlation only if you are
1) - "in the circle"
or
2) - willing to use 100+ PIP or no stop/loss

GVI Forex john 12:54 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation

Riga -yes

We have to figure out what drives what. I think the USDJPY impacts the DJIA (or S&P) more than the other way around., but I am open to other opinions. I hear the stock traders on TV often look for stock price direction form the USDJPY pair.

I have no doubt that each feeds on the other. It doesn't really matter any more which is the driver. They definitely feed off each other and this relationship is now programmed into the mindless algo trading systems.

nw kw 12:52 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation

bund dropping poss eur/jpy

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:51 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation



USDJPY weekly chart

london yen 12:39 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation

Yen. If break 70 then 95. Thats a biggie that 95. Abv there 118.50 first.
But if not then 117.06/10

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:38 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation

Riga, see $yen
gc sf 10:59 GMT 11/19/2014

for a view on usdjpy.

I show 117,95 as next weekly key resistance (suggests using 118.00)

Riga 12:34 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation

USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

I mean does that Nikkei to DJ Correlation you start talking about effects on Yen?
Any ideas what to do on this pair USDJPY?

Mtl JP 12:32 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation

john to trade equity indecies that are subject to fiscal policies of monetary authorities whimsicals rather than to fundamental economics you have to be "in the circle". I am not "in the circle" - my confidence level in making correlation trade calls is zero.

GVI Forex john 12:27 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation

Personally, I prefer the S&P e-mini contract to the DJIA futures. The DJIA is a lousy index on several counts. The S&P emini is more active, better constructed and more representative index.

In Japan I believe they have a similar argument about the TOPIX vs, the Nikkei?

GVI Forex john 12:11 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation

JP- I would love to be able to trade on it, but I don't know how. Do you have an idea how t do it?

Riga 12:10 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation

USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

So what to do? SELL , BY??

GVI Forex john 12:06 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation



Same chart as below with the USDJPY added in. USDJPY line is green. You can see why the equity to forex correlation figures are so high! Much higher than interest rates.

How do we capitalize on this??

Mtl JP 12:05 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation

john 11:50 - "might play with it over the day" = live trade it ?

GVI Forex john 11:50 GMT November 19, 2014
Nikkei to DJ Correlation
Reply   


sf- I don't know if you are gone for the day, but here is the 24- hour Nikkei futures to DJ futures overlay chart you requested. If you are not around I will post it again at the end of our day. Nikkei futures is the dark line and DJ futures is the lighter one.

I had not run this chart before but the relationship looks pretty tight to me. I might play with it over the day.

Let me know what you think.

Cheers John

If anyone else would like us to run studies like this, let me know and realize it can take a little while to set them up if we have the data.

Paris ib 11:34 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

sf - The entire world is front running the Japanese pension funds, which is why USD/JPY is higher. No flows so far. In fact in September the Japanese sold nearly 10 billion in US Treasuries. JP has a point. In 1998 USD/JPY was at 139 and all the 'calls' were for a melt up. What we got was 80 !! The Japanese have over a trillion in US bonds. Does that make Japan poor? Don't think so. Weird stuff is happening in Japan but the real flows don't seem to be what the 'pundits' would have u believe.

GVI Forex john 11:30 GMT November 19, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD Pivot 1.2508 (1.2512 LOD)
so +/- ~1.2500 sets the bias.

GVI Forex Blog 11:30 GMT November 19, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The GBP/USD moved off 14-month lows after the Bank of England (BOE) Nov Minutes was less dovish as expected

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOE minutes not as dovish as anticipated

GVI Forex john 11:19 GMT November 19, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System



USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System




Mtl JP 11:17 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

ya, I seen some forecasts for yen 145 recently...
that would be the level at which it started it's ascent to 80 in 1998, almost 2 decades ago, everyone was predicting that it would hit 200 back then... after a decade of stagnation

gc sf 11:09 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

JP .. just reading a lot of investment firms changing $yen Forecast for next year from 120 to 140

they are saying the only reason its not higher now and may not go past 120 this year - is the trade is crowded.

But who knows where it can get too when the Japanese Pension Fund starts selling YEN agst everything - the Head Guy said they haven't even started yet.

GVI Forex john 11:09 GMT November 19, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   



EUR Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels, Support and Resistance. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





gc sf 10:59 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

I know it doesn't look like it at the moment - but I expect $yen to drop back to 10-20 again before rallying up thru 80

once it goes through 117.80 - it is almost the point of no return

so I'm sure there will be some profit taking prior to FOMC - some option selling - and the fact the market is moving so slowly - those markets can get some quick drops for no reason.

Mtl JP 10:42 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

good news ?

BoJ warns inflation could fall below 1% - FT
Central bank governor’s comments mark reversal from July

GVI Forex 10:31 GMT November 19, 2014
EurGbp

We show the 200 day mva at .8055 vs .8039 high

Global-View FX Chart Points

london red 10:21 GMT November 19, 2014
EurGbp

sf, just come off a test of 200 day ma. Minutes an excuse to take profit. Needs below 7927 to neutralise and below 7874 for bearish resumption. Nearterm support at 7981 52 47.
Cable 15675 15721 and 15786 res.
Euro only below 12482 bearish resumption

GVI Forex john 10:13 GMT November 19, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-On
Reply   

19 November--  09:50 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Markets are in a mixed RISK ON posture early in European trade. The Bank of Japan did not surprise with its policy decision today to continue QE at its pre-existing pace. USDJPY is trading higher. There was no change in the BOE 7-2 vote for the fourth straight month not to tighten policy  Member comments were less dovish than many had expected.

  • In the Far East, equities ended mostly lower.10-yr JGB yields closed steady. 
  • European bourses are broadly higher. 10-yr bund and UK Gilt yields are modestly lower. European peripheral bond yields are mixed.
  • The U.S 10-yr note yield is a touch lower. U.S. share futures are down.



The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

GVI Forex Blog 10:10 GMT November 19, 2014 Reply   
TOP NEWS ITEMS; US- House Starts & Permits, Fed Minutes

No Change in Bank of Japan Policy. Steady Bank of England Vote. Comments Less Dovish

gc sf 09:58 GMT November 19, 2014
EurGbp
Reply   
Red - is that the end of the eurgbp buying after the 2 people voted for a hike ?

KL KL 09:39 GMT November 19, 2014
Buy Audusd relentless

nice....chased it to .86225.....getting off here .8638 and wishing all good trades...and good night for me...leaving bombs to long AUDUSD under .861 and Short Gold above 1205.......No problem what ever happens...unless AUDUSD drop like 800 pips during GFC....I should be right...imvho ...

GVI Forex john 09:30 GMT November 19, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes

U.K. Charts



-- NEWS ALERT --

Rates:Tighten = 2 Unchanged =7 Ease =0
QE: Add = 0 Unchanged =9 Reduce =0


Bank of England




TTN: Live News Special Offer


KL KL 09:10 GMT November 19, 2014
Buy Audusd relentless
Reply   
in long .86335....cover when 10 pips or higher seen...busy busy day...all imvho...gl gt

Paris ib 08:50 GMT November 19, 2014
China, Syria and Murky Geopolitics

Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell in September, but nothing like what you would expect if there was a real geopolitical fight in the offing. What is surprising is that Japanese holdings also fell by quite a lot. Opens up questions of just where this expected outflow of Japanese capital is likely to be headed, IF it ever happens.

Foreign Holdings of Treasuries

Sydney ACC 05:21 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

Three observations:
1. AUD and NZD have moved pretty much in tandem versus USD since we opened this morning AUD/NZD has appreciated 10 pips.

2. Next Fibonacci retracement level on the move from 0.8910 on 29 October to 0.8540 on 7 November is 0.8628 being 23.6% above the bottom of the above move. After that looks like we're back to 0.8540.

3. Minor moves in AUD/USD today have been dictated by those in USD/JPY.

In any event AUD/USD retraced 10 pips while I typed this not - I am a slow typist however.

jkt abel 05:10 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

so are you buying here? share some levels?

Minneapolis DRS2 04:28 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

re: abel 04:15: If AUD/USD looks about to drop into a black hole, then it might be a good time to buy. The question I would ask myself is if the market is liquidating as before, or is it just shorting?

gc sf 04:20 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

honestly I have no idea on that one -- what it should do and what it will do are 2 different things.

I closed some short EUR @25 thinking that may rally later - and that has proven the wrong thing to do.

think I feel more comfortable in the $yen than some of those others.

jkt abel 04:15 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

sf, how about audusd? looks like on the brink of a big big black hole, big usd day today

gc sf 04:06 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

abel - this morning prior to it breaking 117.10 I could make a case for a chance at further retracements

but now it has broken that - I think the chances are your probably right.

118 118.50 120 are certainly possible with BOJ + FOMC ... BOJ is real important you know they really have to give the green light to this whole move shortly.

as long as we hold 117.10 it has immediate bullish bias... imo.

kl shawn 04:06 GMT November 19, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
Reply   
sold euro 1.2517, stop 1.2555

GVI Forex Blog 03:57 GMT November 19, 2014 Reply   
Dow (17,667.82, +0.23%) made new highs within the narrow range trades with good Producer

Morning Briefing : 19-Nov-2014 -0356 GMT

jkt abel 03:45 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

sf, how about usdjpy 118.50 tonight and close the week 120.20?

gc sf 03:23 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

$yen is not waiting for Nikkei Today

Stocks have done little while $YEN is still tracing out a bullish pattern.

Seems to be a bet on the BOJ possibly having to do more if everything just falls away.

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:05 GMT November 19, 2014
AceTrader Nov 19: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

19 Nov 2014 01:28GMT
USD/JPY - ........ Dlr swung wildly on Tuesday following Japan PM Abe said to dissolve parliament and postpone next year's sales tax hike.
Despite a brief sell off but sharp sell off from 117.05 to 116.35 after the announcement, speculation for new stimulus measures from BoJ after 2-day meeting on Wednesday pushed price higher in NY and dlr eventually rose to a fresh 7-year peak at 117.21 in Tokyo morning before retreating.

Today's focus in Asia will be on the BoJ's monetary policy announcement n then the conference in Asian midday.
BOJ board may call for a bleaker view to be given this time, however, any signs that Kuroda's conviction about the recovery is wavering may spur speculation of more easing early next year.

As dlr has resumed its recent strong ascent in Asia, buying on dips is recommended.
Bids are noted at 116.80-70 with mixture of bids and stops located at 116.55/50 and 116.25/20.
On the upside, offers are placed at 117.20-30 and further out at 117.50-60 with stops emerging above 117.80.

Wednesday will see the release of BoJ interest rate decision, EU current account, BoE MPC Vote outcome, Swiss ZEW investor sentiment, U.S. building permits, housing starts and FOMC minutes.

kl fs 01:24 GMT November 19, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

so afterall euro can go down, not bad, still sell on rallies for me today

tokyo ginko 01:06 GMT November 19, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

edit:

busy = been busy

tokyo ginko 00:57 GMT November 19, 2014
Inflation, Monetary Policy and how this ends.

sorry Paris ib, busy with some real estate deals in Japan.

Yes, falling prices in terms of other currencies , definitely...let me know if u are in town, will bring u to some hidden gem sushi places..

yes added more yen above 117..good call abel..

gc sf 00:47 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

that is a good point for sure.

normally or most of the time in $Yen the rallies come after lunch - not so much on the open + Nikkei stopped @17500

so we are sitting and waiting here for the next indication.

NY JM 00:30 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

Dollar should keep a bid ahead of the FOMC minutes IMHO

gc sf 00:20 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

I had some stale b/out eur short from yesterday - I just closed that as well for a loss .. if this turns into a EURYEN day - I don't really want to take that up to 1.2582.

gc sf 00:16 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

shot right up to 17505 - took out my stop @12

normally in $yen once 10 breaks it doesn't go back under 78-80 in a bullish market -- so really the Nikkei has to be front and center today as you would expect.

Mtl JP 00:03 GMT November 19, 2014
$yen

early Nikkei move is UP .. 17405ish

 




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