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Forex Forum Archive for 11/20/2014

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Tallinn viies 22:47 GMT November 20, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
plan to buy euros today at 1,2480-85 with stops at 1,2435 if there is possibility.
otherwise expext range 1,2510-1,2610. max highs near 1,2640 if going wild.
weekly close over 1,2500would be positive sign for euro correction up to 1,3000.
move under 1,2440 turns picture extremely ugly with immidiate downside target 1,2250 during this month and 1,18sh next

GVI Forex john 22:46 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



November 20, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, November 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Draghi, CA- CPI

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ- Draghi
  • North America: CA- CPI, US- COT


GVI Forex john 22:41 GMT November 20, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System



EUR Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels, Support and Resistance. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System




GVI Forex john 22:35 GMT November 20, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System




GVI Forex john 22:08 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
FRIDAY  
13:30 CA CPI BOC targets CPI
14:00 EZ Draghi expect a dovish tone

GVI Forex john 22:06 GMT November 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed RisK

CLOSING LEVELS...



gc sf 21:31 GMT November 20, 2014
Asia

EUR + GBP

just seeing range bots bidding for these now - I assume they are anticipating 33-63 + 85-15

GVI Forex john 21:24 GMT November 20, 2014
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 20:04 GMT November 20, 2014
EURUSD
Reply   


This daily chart puts the price action in perspective

Since 1.25 first traded wide range has been 1.2887-1.2358

Past 9 days have essentially been in a 1.24-1.26 range

Trendlines have narrowed the range to 1.2447-1.2610

1.2538 = 20 day mva

1.2550 sets the tone (currently a magnet) while within 1.25-1.26

Only above 1.2600-10 would suggest a greater risk of a retracement.

Paris ib 20:02 GMT November 20, 2014
Asia

sf - I agree. The lack of follow through has been disappointing. We'll have to see how the Nikkei does on the back of this. Still we may have come into a new era. Sell the rally as opposed to buy the dip. USD/JPY down 1 big figure from the high and no new reasons to buy. The Japanese elections are nearly a month away (though no official date yet). Nothing else biggish on the horizon. I think Kuroda is done. No new tax changes, so all quiet and the market is still way long.

gc sf 19:52 GMT November 20, 2014
Asia
Reply   
IB - I just thought based on the pattern yesterday if Stocks played ball we could see down to 117.10-30 area

but Stocks didn't play ball overnight and it is clawing its way back above 118.

Right now for me it is a more neutral market than it was late yesterday.

Tokyo Open / Nikkei ...... we need to see these before making an updated decision for today.

PAR 19:22 GMT November 20, 2014
US Stocks
Reply   
Lower dollar and higher crude oil pushing US stocks to new record high .

Mtl JP 18:37 GMT November 20, 2014
Global Markets News

why could it be fun ? because Schäuble is supposed to be there too.
Schäuble is the character who has, in the past, warned Mario to mind ECB's constitutional limits on his eagerness to fund governments
-
But I ask what banker in his right mind would not want to expand the debts outstanding book ?

Mtl JP 18:05 GMT November 20, 2014
Global Markets News

ieeha .. just checked the econ calendar (14:00 A EZ Draghi - i.e. 3am NYT) and compelled to check the ecb site to see what about:
Friday, 21 November 2014
Board member: Mario Draghi
Event: Keynote speech by the President at 24th European Banking Congress “Reshaping Europe” in Frankfurt, Germany.
Time: 9 a.m. CET
Venue: Alte Oper, Opernplatz, Frankfurt
-
in no lesser place than Frankfurt. could be fun.

Mtl JP 17:54 GMT November 20, 2014
Global Markets News

PAR if you wait just a little more than half hour, currently voting hawk Mester is going to gumplap about "forward guidance" in London

as if somehow she had a patent on crystal ball

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 17:45 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



JP, I am using the 4 hour chart where the trendline is currently at 1.2591, yesterday's high 1.2600 and the 200 period mva at 1.2603 (last time above it was on Oct 29).

1.2538 = 20 day mva, which reflects the current consolidation that has tried but so far failed to turn into a retracement.

As I noted this week, EURUSD 1.2500 first traded on Oct 3 and after over a month in a half has not been able to establish below despite a low set at 1.2358.

The hope trade is for seasonal USD weakness to take over and setup a better level to go short but trading based on hope is always a long shot.

PAR 17:40 GMT November 20, 2014
Global Markets News

Phily FED not in line with other US data . Sampling error ?

Mtl JP 17:32 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

on the upside euro would probably need to see action above the 50 day 1.2668 to cull some of the +/- 28 billion in COT positions

GVI Forex Blog 17:29 GMT November 20, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The Philly Fed's manufacturing outlook crushed expectations and delivered the highest headline figure since December 1993. Expectations of 18.5 were down slightly from last month's 20.7 reading.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Strong US Data Pull Equities Out of the Ditch

Mtl JP 17:27 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

every racehorse needs a rest at some point
eurdlr will take off either out of 1.2450 or 1.26 breakout

suggest crack open a beer or brew some tea in the meantime
-
gbpusd still in nega-bias mode, 1.56 and lower likely

GVI Forex john 17:25 GMT November 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed RisK
Reply   
20 November--  17:00 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Markets are currently in a MIXED RISK posture Today saw stronger than expected U.S. data and first round of global PMI readings for November. Flash PMI data from the U.S., EZ, China and Japan were disappointing. U.K. Retail Sales data handily beat street expectations.

  • In the Far East, equities ended mostly lower.10-yr JGB yields fell and the Nikkei was steady. 
  • European bourses are closing mixed. 10-yr bund and UK Gilt yields are down by about 4bps. European peripheral bond yields are mixed to higher.
  • The U.S 10-yr note yield is down despite the U.S. data . U.S. share prices are up.



The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

Paris ib 17:23 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Yeah I think 150 EUR/JPY is doable. I just wonder if there is a target for the EUR/USD out there. I haven't heard any numbers but I'm pretty sure there must be a target of some sort.

Prague JIT 17:12 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

ib: JPY target was good. But the traders took it as the lesson: Buy this pair as long as possible. On every Friday evening I am a pip-picker-fisher. Saw it and trading 160 and 76 as well. To trade it, do not look how it was. Two or three digits.... For now I see the tgt. 120 USD and 150 EUR ag. the JPY is still possible. Good round number for all. Next holiday week will be important. Above 124/126 USD/JPY is their CB in the deep trouble. 100 pips daily. We have the silly same cb here. Happy w/e gl Regards,

Paris ib 16:31 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

JIT - with the cover of the '2% inflation target' Japan has devalued the USD/JPY nearly 50% - from 80 to the USD/JPY to today at 118 (119 this morning). No concern has been expressed by the USA about this manoeuvre and some pundits are encouraging the ECB to follow suit. A 50% devaluation and no mention of currency manipulation? In an era where inflation is "anything the statistics departments say it is".... an inflation target makes no sense. But I'm still trying to figure out what these Central Banks are gunning for.

They have currency targets. That's for sure. Originally Japan cited 100 - 110. We are way past that. Euro? What's the target there?

PAR 16:19 GMT November 20, 2014
"Bullard effect".

European markets benefitting from the "Draghi Effect " .

dc CB 16:18 GMT November 20, 2014
"Bullard effect".

According to the NY Times, which broke the story, this is what happened:

From his desk in Lower Manhattan, a banker at Goldman Sachs thumbed through confidential documents — courtesy of a source inside the United States government.

The Latest Scandal: Goldman, Fed Employees Busted For Illegally Sharing Confidential Information

Prague JIT 16:17 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Paris / ib.: Trying to answer all your questions shortly: Is the 2% dogma target ok for all old-good-economies? Why not 1,2? The motor settled to this? Why not 0,5? Everything above zero works. Below.....

dc CB 16:15 GMT November 20, 2014
"Bullard effect".
Reply   
As the chart below shows, of the 165.3 point jump in the S&P, EPS growth has accounted for 1.24 of those S&P points, or about 0.7%. The rest, or 164 points is due to nothing less than Multiple expansion

Here Is The Reason For The Market's Vertical Rebound From The October Lows

PAR 16:10 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Rates need to stay at zero or close to zero to keep the cost of financing the budget deficits down , to keep the balance sheets of the central banks looking good and to keep the stock markets pushing higher helping the 1% and hoping for some trickle down effects.

I see no other reasons why in an economy growing at +3% like the USA ,rates should be at zero

GVI Forex Blog 16:07 GMT November 20, 2014 Reply   
November 20, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, November 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Draghi, CA- CPI

GVI Forex Data Outlook for November 21, 2014

GVI Forex john 15:52 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS



November 20, 2014 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, November 21. Updated: Trading News Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT NEWS RELEASES: EZ- Draghi, CA- CPI

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: EZ- Draghi
  • North America: CA- CPI, US- COT


GVI Forex john 15:31 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Inventories (bcf)

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
-17 vs. -10 exp vs. +40 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Tallinn viies 15:22 GMT November 20, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
seems that 1,2505/10 impossible to break today.
target 1,2610 before NYC close

Paris ib 15:15 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Why not March? Is there a recovery? Zero rates have to be an anomaly historically and only justified by an emergency. If there is a recovery in the States why can't rates move up from zero. We're not talking a huge move. 10 basis points or so. Somebody has to explain to me why that is not possible or justified because I just don't get it.

GVI Forex john 15:15 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Odds on an early rate hike remain very low. Fed focus is on new job creation, average earnings and inflation. Government said today that price falls due to falling oil prices ore in the pipeline.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:13 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Soon is a relative term (June 2015?)

Tepid reaction to the data so far.

Paris ib 15:10 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

So odds on for a rate hike soon?

GVI Forex john 15:10 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Existing Homes Sales is by far the most significant housing statistic. Data were better than expected.

PAR 15:09 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

US rates stay low even after somewhat better than expected US economic data .

GVI Forex john 15:05 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Strong U.S. data across the board USD higher.

GVI Forex john 15:03 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Consumer Confidence preliminary November 2014





ALERT
-11.6 vs. -10.8 vs. -11.1 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 15:02 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Leading Indicators October 2014

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
+0.90% vs. +0.50% exp. vs. +0.80% (r +0.70%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 15:00 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Philly Fed Index November 2014

U.S. Data Charts




NEWS ALERT
+40.8 vs. +18.0 exp. vs. +20.7 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 15:00 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Existing Homes Sales (mln) October 2014

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
5.260 vs. 5.150 exp. vs. 5.170 r. 5.180) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Paris ib 14:58 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Ironically if we do get hikes it will be in an attempt to stop a slide in a currency. Right now everyone is cheering the BoJ but wait around a bit. News from the Ukraine today telling us that prices are going through the roof as the currency collapses.

GVI Forex john 14:51 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Just about every PMI missed today. Global economy slowing? Will ANY Central Bank ever tighten?


For the record I don't see the PMI's as good economic forecasters...

PAR 14:50 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

That will send US treasury yields sharply lower . Yellen happy .

GVI Forex john 14:47 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. flash Markit Manufacturing PMI misses expectations and weakens.

PAR 14:47 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Strong dollar starting to hit US economy .

GVI Forex john 14:45 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

thats a big miss!

GVI Forex john 14:45 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Markit flash Mfg PMI November 2014

U.S. Data Charts




ALERT
54.7 vs. 56.5 exp. vs. 55.9 prelim


Markit PMI Press Release


TTN: Live News Special Offer

dc CB 14:40 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

GVI Forex john 13:32
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

WASHINGTON — Up to four million undocumented immigrants who have lived in the United States for at least five years can apply for a program that protects them from deportation and allows those with no criminal record to work legally in the country, President Obama is to announce on Thursday, according to people briefed on his plans.

Obama’s Immigration Plan Could Shield Four Million

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:39 GMT November 20, 2014
yen



117.36 post-minutes low according to this one hour chart

london red 14:38 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

Couple of hourly trendlines at 11768 and 40. But would expect to 11700/10 to be more supportive with a test of 11770/95.

PAR 14:37 GMT November 20, 2014
Dollar
Reply   
Dollar and US yields down after dovish FED and rather bad US economic numbers . Jobless claims approaching 300.000 yet again .

london red 14:36 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

Couple of hourly trendl

Singapore SC 14:29 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

What do you guys show as the post fomc mins low? I have 117.35-40 but do not trust my source.

hk ab 14:24 GMT November 20, 2014
dlr/jpy
Reply   
When the balance is tilted one-side, watch out.

A close under 117.80, inverted hammer?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:20 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

USDJPY low so far at 117.84 is 2 pips above the 117.82 pivot. 118 clearly sets the tone

Paris ib 14:17 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

sf - 100% yes. So major top in USD/JPY today. With other land marks likely. Buckle up people. :-))

Mtl JP 14:16 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

apparently "the Bills are paying around $10 an hour plus a ticket to Sunday’s game for the privilege of clearing off the stadium" from snow

Mtl JP 14:05 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

pray tell how does Joe's last day on Friday at JPM and starting at GS on Monday matter to FX ?
tia

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:56 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

117.82 = daily pivot
117.64 = 38.2% of 115.46-118.98

GVI Forex john 13:54 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Google definition: "the unemployment which exists in any economy due to people being in the process of moving from one job to another."

GVI Forex john 13:52 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

"frictional unemployment" means there is a level below which unemployment will not go due to people moving typically in and out of jobs for reasons other than the economy. Otherwise, zero mathematically would be the floor.

hk peter 13:51 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

Support level in usdjpy pls?

Mtl JP 13:47 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

gap now closed
see what a short gbpusd against 1.5720 will do

GVI Forex john 13:47 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. October CPI a touch hotter than expected, but it is seen lower later...

U.S. Data Charts

Mtl JP 13:45 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

what does "frictional" mean ?
tia

GVI Forex john 13:43 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims about at frictional lows...




Click on chart for over ten-year history

PRESS RELEASE: U.S. Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims

Mtl JP 13:39 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

gap at 1.2536

GVI Forex john 13:34 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Consumer Price Index October 2014

U.S. Data Charts





ALERT
Headline:
m/m: 0.0% vs. -0.10% exp. v +0.10% pre
y/y: 1.70% vs. +1.60% exp. v +1.70% pre
Core:
m/m: +0.20% vs. +0.10% exp. v +0.10% pre
y/y: +1.80% vs. +1.70% exp. v +1.70% pre


RELEASE: Consumer Price Index


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 13:32 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

U.S. Data Charts





NEWS ALERT

Initial Claims (000)
291K vs. 280K exp. vs. 290K (r 293 K) prev.
Continued Claims (mln)
2.330 vs. n/a exp. vs. 2.341 (r 2.403) prev.
Press Release




TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mtl JP 13:25 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

gbpusd struggling to make a new high (i.e break and hold above 1.5720) gives it currently nega bias

london red 12:54 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Cable. Couple of channels at 15717,18, fib 21. Prev high 36 200 hour 37. Then biggie 15780/86. Support at 15675/80.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:29 GMT November 20, 2014
Are Forex Broker Bonuses Achievable or a Sucker Bet?

Thanks red. What I am looking for is feedback from those who opened accounts to get a bonus and how it worked out. This is research for a follow up article. All names will be kept confidential.

So those who have gone this route, please contact me with details of how it worked out by EMAIL

london red 12:17 GMT November 20, 2014
Are Forex Broker Bonuses Achievable or a Sucker Bet?

*dont over drink regularly

london red 12:16 GMT November 20, 2014
Are Forex Broker Bonuses Achievable or a Sucker Bet?

easy answer to that Jay, if you limit making money to collecting bonuses then better to go to the bookies and put a tenner on a horse.
if you want to trade for a living for you its not about percentage return or beating an industry index. its about the bottom line. how many dollars you can make.
buckets are fine, they really do have their uses (just make sure you get one that pays out and over drink regularly) but anyone wanting to trade for a living must avoid them as far as primary/secondary accounts are concerned. you should be looking at a commission based broker offering a spread of 0.3/0.5 during liquid hours with a 5/6/7 dollar commission per round turn on a 100k.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:08 GMT November 20, 2014
Are Forex Broker Bonuses Achievable or a Sucker Bet?


I have written articles about broker bonuses and this latest offer I received by email caught my attention. The promotion was for using a robot and offered a 100% bonus for a $1000 deposit. Typically an offer like this would make me run for the hills but this time it raised a topic for an article on whether bonuses are achievable.

Are Forex Broker Bonuses Achievable or a Sucker Bet?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:01 GMT November 20, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

Also 4 pips above S1

GVI Forex john 11:55 GMT November 20, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD
S1 1.2501 (LOD 1.2505)

so 1.2500 is a key level again

gc sf 11:55 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

Abel .. the main thing for tomorrow is we get our 150 points regardless of direction - see how it goes o/n.

GVI Forex john 11:50 GMT November 20, 2014
yen



EUR Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels, Support and Resistance. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System




GVI Forex john 11:46 GMT November 20, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System





jkt abel 11:36 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

Nothing to worry about. Today, if anything, just provide a very good entry to go long some more, tomorrow will see a good blast to finish the week in a strong higher high.

GVI Forex Blog 11:34 GMT November 20, 2014
Global Markets News
Reply   
The EUR/USD saw its marginal gains in the session dissipate after German PMI Manufacturing came in below expectations and barely stayed in growth territory.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI data continues to disappoint

london red 11:32 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

nikkei and yen stopped holding hands a couple of days ago but this mornings sell off in the nikkei kicked off selling in the usdjpy. a currency keeps going and going until it reaches a support or resistance it cant break and then pulls back. you take profits and ask questions later. the strongest trend can change every single second of the day.
dont think the barriers at 119 were anything special. it was more overbought at 119 than 117 and thats probably a big factor why the bears managed to win their first fight for a while as markets can be overbought for a while but dont move in a straight line for long. added to the fact that we can expect jawboning c. 120. you have to remember that moves of these speeds dont allow corporates to hedge properly, thats why people start commenting. little things, worries, start to build up the higher you go. thats why im looking at just 120/12150 initially and will reassess once up there.
61.8 of 11740 leg at 11801. normally these give a bounce even if small. but a move lower and it will cascade as i think stops are going to be under 11795. if you bought break of 11795 yest, then you pulled your stopped higher to c. breakeven on the 11850 break. now 119 didnt get done so stops still likely to be at entry. yup these so called fast acting specs move quite slow.

gc sf 11:31 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

100% yes imo -- Friday is usually the biggest day in $yen where the market never deviates by more than 20 pips... in direction.

so in NYK we will see Stocks align with $yen or $yen align with Stocks .. and we will see our 150 points tomorrow.

117.15/118.65 or 118.50/120 ... there really is nothing in between for me.

Also in xxx/jpy 185 148 102 93 ... just about every major cross big figure is in play today.

nw kw 11:17 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

compare xaujpy to xauusd //xaujpy is at channel resistance so xaujpy needs to go to the xstream I dowt it

Paris ib 11:15 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

sf - It's been a huge trend. You think we resolve this today?

Paris ib 11:14 GMT November 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

kw - Sure. China is a trading nation. A lot of European trade is done internally. But to be a reserve currency you need to be a
store of value as well. I don't buy into the publicity of China as the next reserve currency. What we are most likely going to get is a basket. Look up what Robert Fisk had to say on the matter (in print and on Youtube). Discussions have been underway (in secret) for some time.

Fisk

gc sf 11:10 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

this will be answered today .... is $yen really a bull market or not .. it will make a new high near 119.10 if yes and close near there -- if not it will top out @65 and run down to 117.15-20.

I don't see how the resolution will be a close in this 118.20-50 area -- the flows/buying has been relentless - so either they double/triple up and force this back up .. or it is a liquidation.

nw kw 11:10 GMT November 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

In December 2013, the RMB overtook the euro to become the second most-used currency in global trade finance after the US dollar, according to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT).[22]

As of August 2014; (i) more than 10,000 financial institutions are doing business in RMB up from 900 in June 2011 (ii) from just 3% in 2010, the RMB is now used to settle 18% of China’s total trade (iii) China has currency swap agreements with 25 central banks with the total amount of over ¥2.7 trillion (iv) there are now eight official offshore RMB clearing centres – Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Singapore, London, Germany, Korea, and the latest is Canada (signed November 2014).

Paris ib 11:04 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

red - so what you think is leading here? Stocks or currency?

london red 11:03 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

should test the bids at 118 eventually while no hourly close abv 11850. 117/11750 would probably mean nikkei down to shs neck just abv 17000, so both likely to bounce. nikkei to 200 hour maybe, yen to 11795 initially then decision to be made on further pullback or recommencement of main uptrend.

Paris ib 11:02 GMT November 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

kw - seriously not happening. It's a distraction. There is no way in the world a centrally planned command economy is going be the supplier of the world's reserve currency. It's a distraction. It's like saying: see there IS no alternative to the USD. Which is bu.lsh.it anyhow.

nw kw 11:00 GMT November 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

convertible currency yes it using cad as new large banking hub deal from 6 munts ago

GVI Forex john 11:00 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

UK CBI Industrial Output Trends October 2014

U.K. Charts





-- NEWS ALERT --

+3 vs. -5 exp. vs. -6 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Paris ib 10:57 GMT November 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

kw - that's the meme. In my opinion there is no way that China can be a reserve currency. Seriously it doesn't even have a fully convertible currency. This idea is so flawed it's a joke. But it does play into the idea - on some level - that there can be no replacement for the USD. I think that's why this crappy idea keeps getting headlines.

nw kw 10:54 GMT November 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

https://www.google.ca/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=china+world+reserve+currency&tbs=qdr:w

GVI Forex Blog 10:53 GMT November 20, 2014
Flash PMI Data from EZ, China and Japan Miss. Solid U.K. Retail Sales Data. Full U.S. Calendar
Reply   
TOP NEWS ITEMS: EZ- Consumer Confidence, US- CPI, Weekly Jobless, flash mfg PMI, Philly Fed, Existing Homes Sales

Flash PMI Data from EZ, China and Japan Miss. Solid U.K. Retail Sales Data. Full U.S. Calendar

nw kw 10:52 GMT November 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off

China devalues if it keeps out of usa Treasuries //this week reading cad and rest of cb are adding reserves in cny or china for its to be a reserve currency

GVI Forex john 10:45 GMT November 20, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Risk-Off
Reply   


20 November-- 10:35 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
Today has been the first round of global PM readings for November. So far, flash data generally from the EZ, China and Japan have been disappointing and have given the USD a lift. U.K. Retail Sales data handily beat street expectations. Markets are currently in a RISK OFF posture
  • In the Far East, equities ended mostly lower.10-yr JGB yields fell and the Nikkei was steady. 
  • European bourses are mostly lower. 10-yr bund and UK Gilt yields are down by 3bps. European peripheral bond yields are mixed to higher up.
  • The U.S 10-yr note yield is down. U.S. share futures are down.


The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

Paris ib 10:39 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

kw - it all depends on when the market stops listening to the 'talk' and starts focusing on the facts on the ground. If we have a stock market correction FIRST U.S. Treasuries will rally - yields will fall - after the correction and provided we don't get a huge bounce (how many bounces can you get?) then we may have a sell off in Treasuries but only if the USD comes under significant selling pressure.

Right now all the pin heads are talking about this imaginary DEFLATION and how clever and brave the Japanese are. Ho. Ho.
If China devalues that might change things... or maybe we have a reassessment regardless. Let's see.

nw kw 10:35 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Japanese were net sellers of U.S. Treasuries in September 2014//can now get u/j retrace for has no support from U.S. Treasuries

soft us indexs

Paris ib 10:32 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

While they 'talk' about buying in offshore markets the Japanese were net sellers of U.S. Treasuries in September 2014.

Japan sells Treasuries

Paris ib 10:29 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

And all this in the name of fighting what? deflation? Don't make me laugh.

Ginko still hasn't told us if prices are actually falling in Japan in JPY terms or not. There are no deflation anywhere else.

Top marks to Kuroda and co. for public relations. What a con.

nw kw 10:28 GMT November 20, 2014
euro cable

via China will support gold

nw kw 10:26 GMT November 20, 2014
euro cable

via China will support eur //Hang Sang in trouble still dropping

Paris ib 10:25 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

John what if China devalues? What then?

What gets me is the Japanese have devalued the Yen (massively), actually repatriated funds (while telling everyone they were about to start sending money overseas), boosted exports (at the expense of their Asian neighbours) and actually managed to be PRAISED by other countries for their actions. Is this the greatest scam, or what?

Everyone has front run these Japanese Pension funds (who so far have not turned up buying on foreign markets) and pushed the USD/JPY up. Japan gets an export boost and gets to repatriate funds (see recent TIC data) at a fabulous exchange rate. I think this manoeuvre makes the rest of us look like the greatest bunch of plonkers.

Meanwhile the China slowdown continues, impacting the Aussie. But seriously the fact that China has export competition in NO WAY impacts the Euro. As far as the Euro is concerned any slowdown in a country like China which is a huge net exporter to the world - thus extracting GDP from everyone else - is no concern at all.

GVI Forex john 10:17 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

I suggest you stand back a little and see the larger trends in the two EZ, the Chinese and Japan PMIs. To me they all look heavy, although that is not as definitive for Japan?

Implies more EUR weakness,and pressure on JPY and AUD (via China). Agree??

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:15 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

SF great insight just now on USDJPY and EURJPY

gc sf 09:48 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

just too much profit taking in the eur/jpy for the $yen to handle on its own.

GVI Forex john 09:40 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

U.K. Retail Sales data increase and beat expectations. GBPUSD higher.



UK Charts=> http://goo.gl/qhfE28

GVI Forex john 09:34 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Retail Sales beat. GBP higher.

GVI Forex john 09:33 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

GB Retail Sales October 2014




-- NEWS ALERT --

mm: +0.80% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. -0.30% (-0.40%) prev.
yy: +4.30% vs. +4.20% exp. vs. +2.70% (+2.30%) prev.

x-fuel
Mfg mm: +0.8% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. -0.30% prev.
Mfg yy:+4.60% vs. +4.20% exp. vs. +3.10% (+2.80%) prev.


RELEASE: UK Retail Sales


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 09:28 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

EARLIER: Japan flash PMI. Data miss.


http://goo.gl/YKFTSK

GVI Forex john 09:26 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Japan flash PMI November 2014





EARLIER NEWS ALERT
52.1 vs. 52.7 exp. vs. 52.4 prev.

Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 09:22 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Earlier: HSBC flash PMI misses...



More Charts: http://goo.gl/YKFTSK

GVI Forex john 09:19 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

China missed earlier

GVI Forex john 09:18 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

China flash HSBC PMI November 2014





Earlier

HSBC: 50.0 vs. 50.2 exp. vs. 50.4 flash


TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 09:17 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

impressive rally but just come up to res at prev high of 71. needs to clear this for second test of 119 barrier otherwise 50 retest.

GVI Forex john 09:11 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

EZ, GE, FR flash Mfg PMIs weaker.



EZ, German and French flash Services PMIs. Mostly weaker

gc sf 09:09 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

You can see people have the mindset to buy $yen at every chance

but these xxx/jpy can chew you up and spit you out - if you overbuy them too much.

it really is going to boil down to what NYK does with these Stock Markets... and whether those re-align or not with $Yen.

london red 09:04 GMT November 20, 2014
euro cable
Reply   
now pmis out of way planning long at bottom end of that trade with stop under the imp past low of 39.
cable. uk sales up soon. brc shop and sale surveys dont suggest a big downside surprise. warmer weather may have held off winter clothing sales but falling prices at pump should allow other areas to make up the fall. cable failed twice yest at key fib of 15721 so on a beat you dont want to chase it unless it breaks the fib and even then with a tight stop for 15770/80. i am planning sales at 15770-158 if seen this week for a return to sub 157.

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

A number of misses in PMI data.

GVI Forex john 09:00 GMT November 20, 2014
BREAKING NEWS


EZ Flash PMI Estimates November 2014






ALERT
EZ
mfg: 50.4 vs. 50.6 exp. vs. 50.6 prev.
svc: 51.3 vs. 52.3 exp. vs. 52.3 prev.

France
mfg: 47.6 vs. 48.5 exp. vs. 48.5
svc: 48.8 vs. 48.5 exp. vs. 48.3

German
mfg: 50.0 vs. 51.5 exp. vs. 51.4
svc: 52.1 vs. 54.5 exp. vs. 54.4


Markit PMI Press Release



TTN: Live News Special Offer

gc sf 09:00 GMT November 20, 2014
EUR
Reply   
I take it some of these euro numbers were pretty bad ?

Paris ib 08:27 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

Trade data released overnight confirmed that Japan is eating Asia's lunch post Kuroda.

The China slowdown continues (surprise NOT), the iron ore slump accelerates and Aussie takes another hit. We have a full on currency based trade war taking place in Asia and the ramifications are likely to be ugly. Does China devalue next?

China Flash PMI

Interesting about the Nikkei. High was on the 14th of this month while other markets continued the celebration (of what?) of beggar-thy-neighbour currency devaluations? I forgot Japan was supposed to send all this money overseas. Yeah right.

Japan's Exports rise

gc sf 08:12 GMT November 20, 2014
yen

seems short term range

28/33 - 65/66 .. till this Nikkei Situation is resolved.

if that support broke i'd agree we would at least see down to 82-85.

turned into a much more interesting day than normal.

(still say the closing level will signal what happens tomorrow)

london red 08:00 GMT November 20, 2014
yen
Reply   
role reversal and usdjpy is dragging nikkei lower. nikkei stopped moving higher some time ago. vs nikkei alone fair value is around 117.10. a break of support at 118.38 suggests temporarary top.

PAR 07:48 GMT November 20, 2014
Assymetric central banks
Reply   
With rising oil prices central banks convinced us that it did not have an impact on inflation , with falling oil prices central banks convince us that it leads to deflation.

gc sf 06:35 GMT November 20, 2014
Asia

when you look at Abels target of 120.20

basically that would mean NYK today would need to close 118.70 or higher - because the largest day range we have seen has been 150 points.

the last 2 days we have been around the 90 mark and gone up each day -- so if it is a bullish day tomorrow - we should walk in Asia Open @118.90-95 +

if we see something different than that - then we know something is up.

Just putting it out there.

hk ab 06:12 GMT November 20, 2014
gold
Reply   
mman wfakhoury 07:27 GMT November 18, 2014
Gold ready for 30-40 $ move: Reply
Gold is ready to move big .
--------------------------------------------------------------------
So tamed.

GVI Forex Blog 05:51 GMT November 20, 2014 Reply   
(CN) CHINA HSBC NOV FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.0 V 50.2E (6-month low)- (CN) China ANZ Roy Morgan Nov Consumer Confidence Index: 157.1 v 155.1 prior (21-month high) - (JP) JAPAN OCT MERCHANDISE TRAD

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China Flash manufacturing PMI dips to 6-month lows - Source TradeTheNews.com

gc sf 05:04 GMT November 20, 2014
Asia

good call Abel - you had stuck with that for a few days now

I definately think we see 119.10 soon - way too much momentum in the market - and just a wipe out for those still short over the last couple days.

Maybe one dip to 28-30 but that would be it... or it could be there in 15 minutes lol .. anyway lets see.

jkt abel 04:22 GMT November 20, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
Reply   
here you go, usdjpy closing on 118.50, after that 120.20 i mentioned already
this puppy is just money making machine

GVI Forex Blog 04:12 GMT November 20, 2014 Reply   
Equity markets have rallied for long now on back of benign Central bank policies but policies are

Morning Briefing : 20-Nov-2014 -0412 GMT

Provo John 04:06 GMT November 20, 2014
JPY
Reply   
It is interesting how gbp/jpy is not participating as well as eur/jpy and $jpy. It is acting like the child who does not want to Uncle Bubba's wedding and has to be dragged along kicking and screaming.

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:22 GMT November 20, 2014
AceTrader Nov 20: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Reply   
20 Nov 2014 02:03GMT
EUR/USD - ...... The single currency swung wildly on Wednesday as despite ratcheting higher from Asian low at 1.2513 to a fresh near 3-week high at 1.2602 in NY after release of FOMC minutes, renewed broad-based buying in greenback emerged and quickly knocked price down to 1.2525.
Later, euro recovered to 1.2556 in Thursday's Australia before retreating to 1.2530 in Asian morning.

The overnight sell off and failure to close above 1.2600 level yesterday suggest initial choppy trading with downside bias would be seen and selling euro on recovery ahead of the release of a slew of PMI reports from EU and its member countries in European morning is the favorable strategy.
Offers are placed at 1.2550-60 and then 1.2575/80 with mixture of offers and stops emerging just above 1.2600.
On the downside, bids are placed at 1.2510-00 and around 1.2480 with stops located just below 1.2450.

Last night the single currency briefly rose to 1.2602 after the release of FOMC minutes which showed many Federal Reserve policy makers last month said they should be on the lookout for signs of a decline in expectations for inflation, however, renewed dollar's strength knocked price lower.

Thursday will see the release of Japan's export, imports, trade balance and manufacturing PMI, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, BoJ monthly economic survey, Germany's producer prices ad Markit service PMI, EU Markit PMI, U.K. retail sales, CBI trade, Canada's wholesale trade, U.S. CPI, Markit manufacturing PMI, Philly Fed business index, existing home sales, leading index change and consumer confidence.

Provo John 02:20 GMT November 20, 2014
Email for direction

Samuel,

I am not sure who would recommend me as I am still trying to figure this out myself. I know enough to be a danger to myself. There are better people here to get help from.

However, here are a few things to keep you busy until you talk with GVI John or GVI Jay

Check out the "Learn" link above.
Also, This too

In addition, regarding the postings here. Ignore the comments that do not relate to actual trading ideas ( like how dumb some CB or economist, politician, etc is ). Pay attention to what people trade and why. Watch to see if it works. Those are the ones you pay attention to. If you do not know why someone is taking a trading position ASK.

Most important, DO NOT TRADE WITH YOUR CAPITAL right now.

dc CB 02:04 GMT November 20, 2014
Yen
Reply   
these are Noody Girl days

where is that Vatican trader?
Athens?

What a Trend...78 to 118
Privat Islands get bought with this

23401 01 01:32 GMT November 20, 2014
Asia

Thanks

23401 01 01:31 GMT November 20, 2014
Email for direction
Reply   
Hi john, this is samuel I was directed to send my mail to u so u can help me out in learning to trade n giving me trading signals.

23401 01 01:26 GMT November 20, 2014
New fx
Reply   
What do I need to do to be able to read or study candle stick

Provo John 01:24 GMT November 20, 2014
Asia

23401

1) Stop trading using your capital
2) Get a demo account
3) Send an email to Jay or John ( the head guys here ) and they will get you going in the right direction.

Provo John 01:21 GMT November 20, 2014
Asia

I think it is highly unlikely BOJ is concerned about quickness of the move up. They may give some lip service ( which I doubt ). It has ALWAYS been and will ALWAYS be about the exporters. And the better the level to bring their profits home the better especially before year end. And the same for end of 1st qtr next year.

23401 01 01:18 GMT November 20, 2014
Asia

Hi all someone should please save me. Am new in forex trading and I have almost lost my capital. Can I meet a mentor here.

gc sf 01:11 GMT November 20, 2014
Asia

seems your right on the money there John

when the Stocks hit their low that was the 118.00 test and you seem to be about right - the tolerance before worry seems to be on the upper band of 200-300

up 15 pts in stocks and $yen back to being better bid.

Gold broke 1180 just now ... but AUD so far can't hold below 8600

Really the only concern is the random "speed of the move is excessive" ... type thing we sometimes get in this time-zone... that you don't see in London or NYK.

Provo John 00:42 GMT November 20, 2014
Asia

As of yesterday, I was considering closing my accumulated short jpy positions (from 109 and 140). Now, I am reconsidering as there seems to be some new momentum. So any dip to 117.50-117.80 is a gift. Even if the Nikkei were drop 2-300 pts the drop in $jpy is a gift.

Picking up long $jpy and eur/jpy have been the no brainer play while every where else has been harder to play for me.

gc sf 00:19 GMT November 20, 2014
Asia

Nikkei CFD 17375 -100 from earlier.

NY JM 00:13 GMT November 20, 2014
Asia

It is the pace of a move more than a level that prompts a CB concern comment. In this case G20 gave Japan a free pass and BoJ did not comment yesterday but will nevertheless be on alert.

GVI Forex 00:08 GMT November 20, 2014
Japan
Reply   
MNI: JAPAN OCT TRADE DEFICIT Y710.0 BLN; MNI MEDIAN -Y1.022 TRLN

 




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