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Forex Forum Archive for 11/21/2014

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Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Mtl JP 21:56 GMT November 21, 2014
Nota bene

Fed’s Bullard Says Markets Misread Him In October Bond-Buying Dustup - wsj
-
somebody pinch me

dc CB 21:51 GMT November 21, 2014
Nota bene

so I gotta renew my Passport

cauz, once upon a time. Back in my 20's. I could come up There easy

Not Any More.

Gonna cost me like @ $100 to renew.

So, Ask your Guy's WHOT'S that worth for my Money NOT comin' there to that GREAT UNDERGROUND Mall in Totonto... AKA Snow? yeh we be Below.....Can Still SHOP

GVI Forex john 21:36 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Reply   



dc CB 21:30 GMT November 21, 2014
Nota bene

OMG
I'm rich

lordy lordy lordy

Mtl JP 21:11 GMT November 21, 2014
Nota bene
Reply   
Retailers aren’t optimistic about holiday season sales

maybe why China dropped its int rate. Retail buyers should be demanding lower prices regardless of Draghi's or anyone else's "deflationary worry"

GVI Forex john 20:55 GMT November 21, 2014
CHART POINTS: Free Forex Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 20:40 GMT November 21, 2014
Commitment of Traders Report
Reply   

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP


Net EUR JPY COT Positions



Click on chart for COT Details






Click on chart for COT Details



Mtl JP 20:27 GMT November 21, 2014
Week Ahead



usd's break out

Mtl JP 19:54 GMT November 21, 2014
SnP

Someone once let me feel the heft of Nagant M1895 with an all too clear a Qtn in his eyes... it offers 14% chance of getting nailed (1/7)

KL KL 19:47 GMT November 21, 2014
Buy eurusd...sell to cover later

LOL

sheeze.....oh well cover the remaining 1/3 here of the eurusd long.... 1.2392....hind sight should have waited.....but no one has them even in the region of the rising Sun....LOL

dc CB 19:43 GMT November 21, 2014
SnP

Mtl JP 18:39 GMT
trading into Friday close is like playing with a Nagant M1895


is that like a STENgun or a Jaguar with Lucas Electrics?

dc CB 19:10 GMT November 21, 2014
SnP

JP,Cheers

2:15 eXPRESS

so with the weather change ...not to the beach...to the slopes

Mtl JP 19:02 GMT November 21, 2014
SnP

CB 18:35 tky ! u 've saved me from some pain

dc CB 18:59 GMT November 21, 2014
SnP

This one's for NYFED Pres

WILLIAM DUDLEY

"Total Mediocrity Award" - Mike Nichols and Elaine May at the 1959 Emmys

Mtl JP 18:55 GMT November 21, 2014
Buy eurusd...sell to cover later

so far Draghi is not Abe nor Ben - no beef
sofar he is just a windbag

KL KL 18:53 GMT November 21, 2014
Buy eurusd...sell to cover later

time to cover eurusd shorts....chased it to 1.2375...avg 1.2382..... out 1.23845 happy to take the 2 pips and long lower next week......in case Draghi does an ABE...or Ben.....print...print ...print $$$$$$

can sleep nicely over weekend without a worry....LOL....have a good weekend...Fire on Sunday for Sydney...Australia!!

dc CB 18:44 GMT November 21, 2014
SnP

so if you don't know already

Mike Nichols, Urbane Director Loved by Crowds and Critics, Dies at 83

Mike Nichols and Elaine May Sketches

Mtl JP 18:39 GMT November 21, 2014
SnP

trading into Friday close is like playing with a Nagant M1895

dc CB 18:35 GMT November 21, 2014
SnP

OPEX Trap

2000+ Adv
980 Decl
Vol 36xx Up
10xx Dn

will ramp UP

london red 18:34 GMT November 21, 2014
SnP

i use the index itslef for tech. taking a trendline from 2 july to 18 sept. gives me 2050 today. possible bull trap if we go below. futs are 2 pts below index so thats about 2048. it would give a pretty big wick on the daily candle. but this isnt any old asset. fwiw i only buy dips as far as us stocks are concerned, not a seller as its proved unwise. and that once every few months as dips tend to be shallow. so JP imo if goes under 2050 its all set to move lower, but its the s&p and that for me rules out selling as im not smart enough and its just easier to buy the dips.

dc CB 18:27 GMT November 21, 2014
SnP

NO

dc CB 18:26 GMT November 21, 2014
Where in the world is Carmen Segarra

I open my mouth and I get the yacht, the dock, the penthouse in Monaco

What's not to like. Baccarat anyone

Super Mario

Mtl JP 18:23 GMT November 21, 2014
SnP
Reply   


hanging in a hairline, go with breakdown ?
tia

Mtl JP 18:16 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

snagged first long euro on 75
prepared to risk my long usdcad profits but not much more

jkt abel 18:07 GMT November 21, 2014
sell usdjpy intraday

looks like they are after stops above 118 and then slowly wind down to close around 117.90-118

dc CB 17:55 GMT November 21, 2014
Where in the world is Carmen Segarra

don't know if any here watched the Dudley grilling, but mealy-mouthed is being kind. Very much reminiceeent of Timmmaaayyy.
Like you needed to match the Thumb(Ferrit)print to get the Job.

Mtl JP 17:55 GMT November 21, 2014
Week Ahead

so Lloyds too is amongst those who have swallowed Keynes' codswallop that prospects of lower prices will keep folks from making a purchase tomorrow and the day after that .

Hint at who profits in November 18 Bloomberg: Abe’s $1 Trillion Gift to Stock Market Shields Recession Gloom

KL KL 17:28 GMT November 21, 2014
Buy eurusd...sell to cover later

DFM - Don't Follow me

DLTM - Don't Listen to Me.....

its all a game of guessing and which time frame one trades...to each their own style and none are Universal!!... gt to you!!

GVI Forex Blog 17:26 GMT November 21, 2014
Week Ahead
Reply   
• Another decline in euro area inflation will heighten disinflationary concerns

• Ifo to provide a further gauge of the German economy after disappointing PMIs

• Q3 GDP growth in US and UK likely to be unchanged from initial estimates

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - EURO AREA INFLATION DATA TO HEAP PRESSURE ON THE ECB

Mtl JP 17:25 GMT November 21, 2014
Buy eurusd...sell to cover later

pardon my ignorance
what is DFM, DLTM in plain eng ?

jkt abel 17:21 GMT November 21, 2014
sell usdjpy intraday

can sense lots of stops piling up 117.90 and above, sharks smell blood?

london red 17:16 GMT November 21, 2014
friki friday trade

Loonie thru 43 now needs to hold onto this and has chance to test fib 66. They havent closed below this so will draw plenty of blood if moves abv. Close c. 11288/11303 if gets beaten.

KL KL 17:07 GMT November 21, 2014
Buy eurusd...sell to cover later
Reply   
Dooomsh....suprise I am awake.....LOL

Long Relentless EURUSD 1.2387.....hope to cover here at entry or 7-13 pips higher...lets see....into the close....DFM, DLTM, imvho and Good Morning from this part of the world where tomorrow have started ....LOL

london red 17:05 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

12377 38.2 fib stands in way of 12357 low then 200 month at 12230

jkt abel 17:00 GMT November 21, 2014
sell usdjpy intraday

hmm, 118 on the card by the close? let's see

bali sja 16:57 GMT November 21, 2014
sell usdjpy intraday

try some small usdjpy short also 117.72 adding near 117.90, while below 118 worth a try with stop 118.20ish

kl shawn 16:54 GMT November 21, 2014
sell usdjpy intraday

short usdjpy also 117.68, stop 118, i dont think 118 can be seen again today, if seen then i am completely wrong and thus the stop

kl fs 16:52 GMT November 21, 2014
sell usdjpy intraday
Reply   
sell usdjpy 117.68, stop 117.92

kl fs 16:46 GMT November 21, 2014
buy euro
Reply   
buy 1.2397, stop 1.2345

Mtl JP 16:38 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

so what ... do we do with Triple bottom:
expect it to hold seeing as it has proven itself or
expect it to break next time around on expectation of having been weakened by multi-attacks ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:36 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy



Triple bottom 117.35 (pointed this level out yesterday and again o/n)

HK Kevin 16:33 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

HK Kevin 10:55 GMT 11/21/2014
China rate cute is a negative signal for AUD
AUD under 0.8670 will see 0.8635 very fast. However, not much downside for the pair and may test 0.8760 next Mon.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 16:28 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

EURJPY last 145.86 vs, 145.68 close last Friday and Thursday high at 149.14

london red 16:27 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

euro prev lows at 98 and 94, below there theyll be scrambling again as ytd low in focus nxt.

perth wtr 16:15 GMT November 21, 2014
sell usdjpy

tom, it is friday, take what market has given you IMO, next week will offer more opportunities

london red 16:09 GMT November 21, 2014
sell usdjpy

just updated my hourly trendlines. now 11688 and 11625. upper channel now 11759 while below there the move below 11750 still on. needs to drop the 11735 prev low to accelerate downside.

Paris ib 16:07 GMT November 21, 2014
sell usdjpy

Only people hoping to sell at 120.00. :-)

manila tom 16:06 GMT November 21, 2014
sell usdjpy

yes ib, feel more comfy going short usdjpy then entering new long, who wants to buy at 119 i dont know

Mtl JP 16:02 GMT November 21, 2014
sell usdjpy

117.20 first support

Paris ib 15:55 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

red - I disagree that it is rate differentials. It is always buying and selling and ultimately capital flows. If money doesn't flow out of Japan the speculative USD/JPY buying - which has already taken place - will have to exit positions. But like I said the election could be a shocker and provide specs with a second wind. For now I can't see anything pushing new money into this position so unwinds will hurt the trend.

manila tom 15:55 GMT November 21, 2014
sell usdjpy

we have seen the top for usdjpy, keep the short

perth wtr 15:48 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

closed my usdjpy with some gain, probably will close around 117.80-117.90, looking for opportunity to short again next week, have a nice weekend everyone

london red 15:48 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

ib, the exchange rate is an amalgamation of many things i wont question that. but for me, the rate divergence is what is going to drive the pair ultimately, as its what the market chooses to focus on longterm. some might say data is adjusted or manipulated, but you have to play to the markets tune to make money each week. and im just here to make money.

Paris ib 15:39 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

red - yeah hindsight is a beautiful thing. For now pullback on USD/JPY.... there's not enough new information to keep the market buying more right now. The election might be crucial but that's a while away. As to EUR/USD... agnostic. It's Friday. Draghi just talked. So we go with Draghi for now.

london red 15:34 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

ib, think some pullback is due but not sure id say weve seen the high. if can go thru 11750 shortly, then maybe we can get to the 11706/11680 support zone. id be a buyer there into nxt week and look for a test of 11870/119.

manila tom 15:34 GMT November 21, 2014
sell usdjpy

yes, i think usdjpy is sell on rallies mode from now on

Mtl JP 15:33 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

ib so what... are u targeting the 200dma with a short from here ?

Paris ib 15:29 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

Looks to me like USD/JPY has entered 'sell the rally' territory. And maybe the Nikkei has topped out too. The feeding frenzy on European stock markets has a bit more to go - say 4% or so - but the U.S. market is now feeding on other people's leftovers. We got just a bit more than month to close the year so it's probably not worth getting too excited. Trends are unlikely to turn overnight, what with silly season coming. But I have never seem a market more frenzied on the back of so little.

Mtl JP 15:23 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

so watch out for an alleged twittered rumor about some Weidmann gumflap

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:17 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

I think Weidmann's speech where he did not make a reference to monetary policy as I took it as a signal that Draghi won the battle and is still driving the bus. As long as QE is on the table (as someone mentioned earlier), the EUR downside will be more exposed.

Mtl JP 15:06 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

euro in a bit of a t/p pause here between 25/30
if it breaks out and uP, 1.2530 is not out of radar range

dc CB 15:02 GMT November 21, 2014
Where in the world is Carmen Segarra

Bill Dudley - the president of the NY Fed - will face a very skeptical Senate Banking Committee this morning investigating so-called "regulatory capture."

Of course, their eyes were finally opened after Carmen Segarra, a former employee, leaked 47.5 hours of taped conversation ...

Dudley's defense (not denial) so far: "We understand the risks of doing our job poorly and of becoming too close to the firms we supervise. Of course, we are not perfect. We sometimes make mistakes."

Bill Dudley Explains Why The New York Fed Is Not A Subsidiary Of Goldman Sachs - Live Webcast

london red 14:55 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

JP, nothing new was said but it was enough to flip mkt psychology from trying to run more topside stops to refocusing on downside. while thats fresh in the mkts mind you have to sell rally i think. res at 39/42 48 60 80 2502 15. if can reverse abv 60 by close then it might reach the upper res mon/tues nxt week. last months low was 12485 so i expect it to close nxt week below that by some way.

Paris ib 14:55 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

So what? This is a talk fest. Have Japanese buyers shown up on foreign financial markets? No. No sign of capital outflow from Japan. But that doesn't matter, the market is front running the Japanese Pension Funds - and if they never turn up? Well we'll deal with that later. Slightly insane, but hey.

Mtl JP 14:41 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

Looks like NY players are realizing that Mario - “ready to do whatever it takes”, “believe me, it will be enough” & “will do what we must” - Draghi actually didn't put anything tangible on the table beside paroles

Mtl JP 14:29 GMT November 21, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

S&P Chartpoints
3 StdD 2103.33
2 StdD 2074.82
1 StdD 2046.30
20day 2017.79

jkt abel 14:29 GMT November 21, 2014
sell usdjpy

great, now have catalysts...
see you all next week

manila tom 14:27 GMT November 21, 2014
sell usdjpy

wtr, follow you sold 117.82, stop 118.25, target today's low

Mtl JP 14:23 GMT November 21, 2014
friki friday trade

tks red. already trailing

london red 14:21 GMT November 21, 2014
friki friday trade

loonie. 43/66 res. both imp lvls, if they busted them then they will scramble to cover and take it much higher to 113. but you need to be ready to pull out if cant be overcome as break of 66 and weekly close below suggests lower levels next week and 43 was the original breakout level when loonie climbed almost 1 and a half figures. 144 month ema at 11214 will be imp lvl next week.

Mtl JP 14:16 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

current longs against 1.2400/75 would probably like to tp around 25/30

Mtl JP 14:09 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.2375 and 1.2350 if seen Target: uP Stop: tight under 50

ready to risk some earlier pip
starting to think euro might be nearing bottom today
friskier trade would be to long here at just above 1.24

perth wtr 14:02 GMT November 21, 2014
sell usdjpy
Reply   
sold usdjpy 117.90, stop 118.12

dc CB 14:00 GMT November 21, 2014
friki friday trade II

this is OPEX day, so US Stox may dip and rip ...
or just camp out after the Cash market catches up to the futures ramp.

next week is basically a 2 1/2 day trading week....Wed PM "get out of town"
Fri 1/2 day also....the traditional post turkey ramp on No Volume

CME Thanksgiving holiday sched

Mtl JP 13:54 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

so far in NY euro not in a rush to test 1.2360

Mtl JP 13:43 GMT November 21, 2014
friki friday trade II
Reply   
Buy EURCHF
Entry: on or under 1.2010 print Target: 1.21+ Stop: print under 1.1975

.

GVI Forex john 13:42 GMT November 21, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Canada: Headline and BOC Core CPI hutter than expected. Core CPI above target.

Canada Charts

Mtl JP 13:36 GMT November 21, 2014
friki friday trade
Reply   
Buy USDCAD
Entry: market Target: UP Stop: under 1.1182

.

GVI Forex john 13:33 GMT November 21, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Canada: Bank of Canada Core and Consumer Prices October 2014





NEWS ALERT
yy: +2.30% vs. +2.10% exp. vs. +2.10% prev.
Headline
mm: +0.10% vs. -0.20% exp. vs. +0.10% prev.
yy: +2.40% vs. +2.00% exp. vs. +2.00% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

dc CB 13:29 GMT November 21, 2014
Where in the world is Carmen Segarra
Reply   
The announcement Thursday came less than 24 hours ahead of a Senate banking subcommittee hearing on the topic of regulatory capture

Citing concerns about weak oversight by the New York Fed, one of the panel's members, Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., introduced a bill this week to make the bank's president subject to Senate confirmation.
A private board currently selects the New York Fed president. In 2009, it picked Bill Dudley a former Goldman Sachs managing director. Dudley is expected to testify at the hearing.

In September, ProPublica and This American Life reported on secret recordings made by former New York Fed examiner Carmen Segarra that showed officials were reluctant to aggressively challenge Goldman Sachs over questions about its policies and transactions.

Segarra was not invited to testify and, through a representative, issued a statement expressing disappointment.

"She believes any official subcommittee hearing on regulatory capture will be incomplete without her firsthand accounts of what she saw during her tenure at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York," the statement said.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++br />
Hearing: Friday, November 21, 2014
10:00 AM - 12:00 PM

http://www.banking.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Hearings.Hearing&Hearing_ID=ba1c89dc-8a7b-4cad-9e16-514fd6e6a489

Federal Reserve Announces Sweeping Review of Its Big Bank Oversight

Mtl JP 13:29 GMT November 21, 2014
loonie

usdcad 50 day 1.1211 / 00 = support

GVI Forex john 13:25 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

10-yr 2.344% -1.2bp

SP Futures +18
DJ Futures +146

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:24 GMT November 21, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

To state the obvious, it is all about EUR crosses today, which have gotten crushed.

S3 (1,2438) is a minor day res blocking 1.2460

GVI Forex john 13:22 GMT November 21, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

EURUSD
"5% day"

S3 1.2438 (1.2416 LOD)

Mtl JP 13:04 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

paper Gold above $1200 now

nw kw 12:57 GMT November 21, 2014
loonie

BNN. can benefiting from the usa trading, and I have cheep car gas

Mtl JP 12:57 GMT November 21, 2014
Like Panasonic ("ahead of its time")
Reply   
"We’re in the midst of an international currency war, a general weakening of currency." - Guido Mantega, Brazil finance minister September 27, 2010

GVI Forex john 10:26 GMT July 24, 2014
EUR Heat Map: Reply
JP- It is so declared OFFICIALLY.
We are in the midst of currency wars.

-
Is anyone winning ? if y who is / will be losing ?
Got Gold ?

kl fs 12:56 GMT November 21, 2014
usdjpy
Reply   
i think pivot today 118.20 area will give some battle between the two sides

dc CB 12:48 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

Draggi doing the Chinese Two Step.

2100 by Dec 1

emini

london red 12:42 GMT November 21, 2014
loonie
Reply   
cpi up within an hour. so far firmer oil and china rate cut have boosted cad but still unable to sustain trade below 11266. firmer cpi would be a surprise and might make a perfect storm to run stops under 11243. think would then be worth long in 11203-13 region as BoC has on many occasions sided to the dovish side in letting short term inflation overrun if necessary. on the topside, res at 11303 and 24-35 likely to come into play on a miss.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:20 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy



As posted on GVI Forex

Looking at EURUSD 4 hour chart as that is the one that capped the upside.

1.2435 = Trendline broken today
1.2443 = Support broken today 1.2443

So 1.2435-43 blocks return to 1.2550, only firmly above puts focus back on 1.25. 5 minute chart shows key res at 1.2460

On downside, 1.2395 blocks recent low at 1.2358

Melbourne Qindex 12:05 GMT November 21, 2014
EUR/JPY : Critical Point 145.07

Buy EURJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:




EUR/JPY : Weekly Cycle Reference


... 142.367 - 142.982* - 143.598 - 143.905 // 144.213* - 144.520 - 144.828 - 1456.136 - 145.443* - 145.751 - [146.059] - 146.366 - 146.674* - 146.981 - 147.289 - 147.597 - 147.904* // 148.212 - 148.520 - 149.135* - 149.750 ...


Qindex.com

EUR/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 11:56 GMT November 21, 2014
EUR/JPY : Critical Point 145.07
Reply   
Buy EURJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:




EUR/JPY : The odds are in favour of taking a long position. The short term upside targeting range is 149.174 // 150.09.


Qindex.com

Quantum Index Analysis

jkt abel 11:52 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy

120.20 later tonight, c ya!

jkt abel 11:50 GMT November 21, 2014
sell euro, buy usdjpy
Reply   
again and again, this subject will prove so right!
follow the crystal ball
china cut rates, green light to go long usdjpy until xmas and and sell euro

GC gcm 11:45 GMT November 21, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

IB
re: Chinese GDP /export growth.
You are right about one thing. Export figures don't equate with the reported export growth. Want a more valid source: Figures from Chinas biggest port container terminal. Figures based on empty and full container traffic puts the real GDP @5.5%.This calculation is more than 6 months old. The figures should be a lower for the next count ( in 1 month). Chinese "break even " figure for their economy needs to be over 6.5%. Below that means recession.
You will hear a lot on this forum and other media comments and reports of how good Chinese economy is by brainwashed " local comrades", the fact is China is in recession.
I am looking forward to the next container traffic count.
p.s I use this data for all long term positioning of fund assets.
regards
The Wizard of Oz

london red 11:39 GMT November 21, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

watch this 11266 fib on loonie. many gone long this week and stops like under 11243.

GVI Forex john 11:25 GMT November 21, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System



EUR Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels, Support and Resistance. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System


Mtl JP 11:23 GMT November 21, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

where are the SKoreans ?

GVI Forex john 11:19 GMT November 21, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System

AUDUSD
R3 .8732
R2 .8686
R1 .8658
Pivot .8612

20-day .8715

GVI Forex john 11:16 GMT November 21, 2014
PIVOT POINTS: Trading System
Reply   


USD Pivot Points, Support and Resistance Levels. Chart Point tables. Click chart icon to store in browser tab.


Using Pivot Points in Forex Trading:
A Simple but Effective Trading System


Paris ib 11:13 GMT November 21, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

To be clear Chinese export related growth eats everyone else's lunch ie. everyone else's GDP.

Paris ib 11:11 GMT November 21, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

Absolutely. I was just looking at some stuff on China. China reported this big export surge that appears to be fake and tied more to capital flows. It doesn't tally with Hong Kong data (which was supposedly the big recipient of all these exports). In order to export capital from China that capital has to be export related. Questions about what is going on but signs of capital exodus - parking in Australian property for example. There is no way that the huge move in USD/JPY has not adversely impacted China. This rate cut tells us they are trying to address the issue but seriously what will it do? Not much. I still think we may see a devaluation which would not be good for the economy of the rest of the world. The idea that Chinese economic growth is good for the rest of the world (ex commodity exporters) is just not supported by the facts.

london red 11:06 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

paris, yes the yuan is pegged but any easing they do lifts other currencies. its stopped the rot for the euro and other as well. i dont think you can make a case for the yuan being overvalued, but they wont like depreciations elsewhere across the globe as you say.

GVI Forex john 11:04 GMT November 21, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

The rate was not completely out of the blue. I had heard vague chatter about a rate cut yesterday, but I did not think it was imminent.

Keep in mind that the AUD is the China proxy because of its large raw materials export relationship.

london red 11:00 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

and thats what makes a mkt folks!

GVI Forex john 10:59 GMT November 21, 2014
BREAKING NEWS

For the record
China cuts RRR rate

10:32*(CN) CHINA PBOC CUTS BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES; effective from Sat, Nov 22nd
- Cuts 1 year deposit Rate by 25bps to 2.75%
- Cuts 1-year lending Rate by 40bps to 5.60%

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Paris ib 10:57 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

In the sense that if China is in trouble and needs to cut rates then Australia is in trouble. Agreed. But right now the market is expecting this rate cut in China to fix China. Ha ha.

HK Kevin 10:55 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

China rate cute is a negative signal for AUD

london red 10:55 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

aussie support 80/85 if cant hold then its all over.

Paris ib 10:51 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

U.S. Treasuries not liking this. Why?

Paris ib 10:50 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

China is pegged to the USD. Unless they break their peg the drop in interest rates isn't going to achieve all that much if this is a currency war. I would think that the USD/JPY is their greatest concern. Draghi hasn't done or said much. And the EUR/USD is down a bit but off it's recent lows. The USD/JPY is at seven year highs or therabouts.

london red 10:48 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

not sure they are working together, but seems china not too happy about them jawboning euro lower either.

Paris ib 10:43 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

No this looks a bit co-ordinated. I guess they would have know that Draghi would have been dovish. So maybe they picked their moment. Stocks are going to go ballistic. At least in the Euro Zone.

london red 10:41 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

aussie short 55-60 stop over 80. if seen.
straight after draghi comments. a coincidence?

Paris ib 10:41 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

Yeah Australia has hitched it's wagon to China.

GVI Forex 10:39 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

Look at AUD teaction

Paris ib 10:38 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

The China response to the Japanese devaluation. This isn't over.

Paris ib 10:35 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

Are the looking to devalue? Stocks are loving this. More records in the U.S., European stocks powering ahead.

london red 10:33 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk

china just cut rates

GVI Forex 10:22 GMT November 21, 2014
eurusd

05:15(DE) ECB's Weidmann (Germany): No comments on monetary policy - comments from Frankfurt European Banking Congress
- Reiterates view of needing structural reforms over low interest rates
-Reforming tax treatment more... (related IXG EUECB)

- Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 10:16 GMT November 21, 2014 Reply   
TOP NEWS ITEMS: CA- CPI

Mixed Risk Early in Europe as ECB President Draghi Repeats Support For the Economy

GVI Forex john 10:13 GMT November 21, 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS: Mixed Risk
Reply   

21 November--  10:00 GMT- Current Market Conditions
:
ECB President Draghi reiterated today  that the Central bank is prepared to take action as needed. His supportive words have markets heading into the weekend in a MIXED RISK posture with equity values generally higher, but bond yields broadly lower.. Normally  the two have an inverse relationship since the two compete with one another for investor demand. Canadian CPI figures are the only key data today. ECB President Draghi reiterated that the Central bank is prepared to take action as needed.

  • In the Far East, equities ended mostly higher.10-yr JGB yields fell. 
  • European bourses are broadly higher at this hour. 10-yr bund and UK Gilt yields are lower. European peripheral bond yields are mixed to higher.
  • The U.S 10-yr note yield is down. U.S. share futures are up.



The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

london red 10:08 GMT November 21, 2014
eurusd

my stop done now look to sell any rebound to 12480-12502 unless goes under 12400 then lower offer to somewhere around 12435-45.

Tallinn viies 10:07 GMT November 21, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
got stoped out.

Frankfurt HH 10:02 GMT November 21, 2014
eurusd

Draghi put QE on the table but will Weidmann try to take it off???

london red 09:57 GMT November 21, 2014
eurusd

re weidmann only on monday he was against sovereign bond purchases. its worth watching for any change if the subject is touched.

london red 09:53 GMT November 21, 2014
eurusd

your q seems to have disappeared chris but Weidmann set to speak quarter past the hour and Nouy to i believe.

london red 09:44 GMT November 21, 2014
eurusd

re snb and the peg. snb probably the most credible no nonsense cb in the world today. so i doubt there has been much attempt to break it. but, theres a chance for someone to make the world forget about the soros pound. would make the yen move look trivial. but these days balls are chopped off before traders enter the building so i doubt we will see the peg go.

london red 09:39 GMT November 21, 2014
eurusd

JP snb releases figures next monday so you will find out then.

Mtl JP 09:30 GMT November 21, 2014
eurusd

me thinks if snb were "in" eurchf should be >1.21++

Plovdiv Gotin 09:28 GMT November 21, 2014
eur/usd
Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

This 1.2358 is en route to 1.3667/1.6038 or ....?10x for opinions.

London Chris 09:17 GMT November 21, 2014
eurusd

FRANKFURT—European Central Bank President Mario Draghi sent a strong signal Friday that the central bank is ready to “step up the pressure” and expand its asset-purchase programs if inflation fails to show signs of quickly returning to the ECB’s target.

“We will continue to meet our responsibility—we will do what we must to raise inflation and inflation expectations as fast as possible, as our price stability mandate requires of us,” Mr. Draghi said in a speech to a banking conference. WSJ

london red 09:15 GMT November 21, 2014
eurusd

viies, there were some comments on the wires earlier re supporting 1.20 from zurbruegg said must buy at 1.20

Tallinn viies 09:12 GMT November 21, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
eurchf moving up. is SNB in?

london red 09:12 GMT November 21, 2014
Europe

nothing we havent heard JP, but it may have changed market psychology which would put the whole euro retracement at risk. below 39 is the key for bears.

london red 09:06 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

yen. anything abv 11828/37 zone suggests bottom for this pullback is in. some hourly trendline res at 22 ahead of that.
gone long euro at 60 stop under 39. looking for hourly reversal back over 200 hour ma or will close, there should be no second chances to buy dip.

Tallinn viies 08:52 GMT November 21, 2014
eurusd
Reply   
got my long euro at 1,2485.
stop at 1,2435. target 1,2600sh

Mtl JP 08:51 GMT November 21, 2014
Europe

red did Mario make an offer to buy Buckingham palace ?

Hong Kong AceTrader 08:49 GMT November 21, 2014
AceTrader Nov 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Reply   
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Nov 2014 07:51GMT

USD/JPY - ...... .Japan PM Adviser Hamada said, quote:
'Abenomics working well but negative impact from April sales tax hike stronger than expected;
dlr/yen at Y120 positive for overall Japan economy but steps needed to ease impact on consumers;
consumer inflation around 1.5% is acceptable under current jobs mkt situation;
corporate tax rate should be cut to closer to 20%.'

The greenback briefly retreated to 117.60 after his comments. Earlier, dlr rebounded to 117.98 after intra-day sharp sell off to a fresh 1-week low at 117.36 in Tokyo morning as Nikkei turned from negative to positive territory and ended the day up 0.33% at 17357.

Bids are noted at 117.45/40 and then 117.25/20 with mixture of bids and stops emerging below 117.00, whilst offers are located at 117.80-90 and more at 118.15/20 and 118.30/35 with stops placed just above 118.50.

Earlier news reported that PM Shinzo Abe dissolved parliament's lower house for an election on Friday, seeking a fresh mandate for his struggling Abenomics revival strategy just two years after he returned to power promising that "Japan is Back".

The speaker of the lower house read the dissolution proclamation to a plenary session of the chamber.

No election for parliament's lower house needed to be held until late 2016. But Abe is hoping to cement his grip on power before his support ratings, now below 40 percent in some surveys but still sturdy by Japanese standards, slip further.

The date of the election, expected to be on Dec. 14, will officially be set at a cabinet meeting in the afternoon.

GVI Forex Blog 08:45 GMT November 21, 2014 Reply   
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND OCT CREDIT CARD SPENDING M/M: 1.3% V 0.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: 6.7% V 4.5% PRIOR***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***- Nikkei225 -0.8%, S&P/ASX -0.2%, Kospi +0.3%, Shanghai Composite +0.6%, H

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: JPY recovers ground as Fin Min Aso objects to high-speed decline - Source TradeTheNews.com

london red 08:37 GMT November 21, 2014
Europe

its an impressive move off the lows now approaching 250pts. todays low so far is the channel top which the index closed abv yest. so essentially a breakout if they can close abv 18th nov high.

Mtl JP 08:25 GMT November 21, 2014
Europe

stox a-rocking

london red 08:21 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

yen. some comments overnight which i warned about. they have whatever target they have, but the move needs to be orderly and slow enough to allow all corporates time to adjust their businesses and hedge for the move. the inflation rate is still stuck south of where they want it so its far to early to talk about intervention. the japanese will only intervene if pressed by the usa but this will only happen at much much higher levels if they are ever seen. possibly if abv 135 were seen maybe there would be some pressure from the usa, but it depends on a variety of factors such as the strength of the us economy at the time and the inflation rates in both us and japan.
so how to work within such a system. wait for a pullback, then buy and hold with a sensible stop looking for the next top to pull out. and repeat.
for now yen has some support from prev highs at 11706/00 then a couple of trendlines at 11677/80. a second from the post gap low comes in at 11617 but im not expecting to see that today. i only mention it because last weeks low is sub 114 so its within the realms of possibility.

Mtl JP 08:15 GMT November 21, 2014
Europe

what is the risk? high expectations and potential for disappointment :

"More than three-quarters of economists said that if the ECB does enlarge the program, it will buy corporate bonds; 43 percent said it will buy the debt of government agencies; and 57 percent predicted it will buy sovereign bonds. More than a fifth said it will add stimulus by making the targeted bank loans more attractive." - bloomberg Nov 17, 2014

Mtl JP 07:54 GMT November 21, 2014
Europe

"We can not imagine negative deposit rates for our private and corporate clients," said Commerzbank Chief Financial Officer Stephan Engels. - in der spiegel 06/11/2014

PAR 07:53 GMT November 21, 2014
Europe

Everybody seems to have already forgotten about the negative EUR interest rates . Hence the relative EUR strength .

Mtl JP 07:47 GMT November 21, 2014
Europe

Recall that Draghi's ECB already implemented negative interest on deposits - thereby re-shaping folk's amounts they deposit in a bank

Mtl JP 07:35 GMT November 21, 2014
Europe

and as traders we are about MONEY MONEY MONEY
preferably about not losing any / many

PAR 07:30 GMT November 21, 2014
Europe
Reply   
Is all about DRAGHI DRAGHI DRAGHI .

nw kw 06:59 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

usd/mxn trapped channel top poss usd strength for weekend

nw kw 06:49 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

cad strength from exports to usa/profitable from soft cat reported

gc sf 06:15 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

EUR + GBP

bids coming in again now 39 40 41 787980

gc sf 05:08 GMT November 21, 2014
yen

Nikkei making new daily high

GVI Forex Blog 03:52 GMT November 21, 2014 Reply   
Good set of economic numbers in US, milder numbers from Europe

Morning Briefing : 21-Nov-2014 -0352 GMT

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:42 GMT November 21, 2014
yen

Low so far 117.35

nw kw 02:34 GMT November 21, 2014
yen

USD Building Permits (MoM) (OCT)
Medium
4.8% 0.9% 2.8%

most aren't pricing this in I do have lumber retrace so I still see usd strength

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 02:30 GMT November 21, 2014
yen

As posted earlier:

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:39:27 GMT - 11/20/2014
117.36 post-minutes low according to this one hour chart

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:13 GMT November 21, 2014
AceTrader Nov 21: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Reply   

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Nov 2014 02:00GMT

USD/JPY - 117.51... Dlr went through a roller coaster session on Thursday as despite an initial rally to a fresh 7-year peak at 118.98 shortly European open, selling interest located below 119.00 level knocked price lower ahead of NY open.
The greenback eventually fell to 117.74 in NY morning after release of worse-than-expected U.S. jobless claims and soft inflation data before rebounding to 118.32 due to upbeat U.S. existing home sales figures.
Dlr briefly climbed to 118.37 in Friday Tokyo morning and then tumbled to 117.45 on risk aversion due to intra-day fall in Nikkei (currently down 0.9% to 17144) and comments from Japan FinMin Aso (see our prev. MMN).

Although dlr's intra-day sell off below 117.74 support signals further choppy trading below yesterday's top at 118.98 would continue and selling on recovery is recommended, price may find support near 117.00 level as growing divergence of economic and monetary policy developments between the U.S. and Japan should continue to provide support to the pair.

Bids are noted 117.40-30 n then 117.10-00 with mixture of bids and stops emerging just below 117.00.
On the upside, offers fm various accounts are placed at 117.90/00, 118.20-30 and more near 118.50 level.

Friday will release U.K. PSNCR and Canada CPI.

Provo John 02:10 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

I was really surprised that he said anything at all. And in fact the Finance Minster is not the one who decides whether to intervene. That is the privy of BOJ ( I think ).

I also think that this entire move will reverse itself. Maybe not in Asia or even today, but it will be reversed. IMHO.

nw kw 02:09 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/20/us-global-economy-idUSKCN0J41R620141120

next

gbp slightly soft

xagjpy rebalance poss u/j 115

gc sf 02:07 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

EUR + GBP

just t/p selling on the earlier range trade.

gc sf 02:04 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

good pick up John -- I had not seen that .. that is always a wildcard statement in Asian Time... you don't see in LDN or NYK.

gc sf 02:02 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

Everything was pretty quiet - then Nikkei dropped and next $yen broke the o/n lows and here we are .. no news I saw

just the $yen re-aligning itself to Nikkei.

Provo John 02:01 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

In fact there is news and I finally found it:

TOKYO, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The yen rose sharply on Friday
after Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said the currency's
weakening over the past week has been too fast and that rapid
currency moves are unwelcome, whether they are up or down.

The thing is they would NEVER intervene to stop the rise so this is just bluster. This is a buy imo.

LA RM 01:54 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

I was just going to ask if there was news on the jpy but guess it is just the Nikkei?

gc sf 01:45 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

Nikkei down to 17150 -150/160 from earlier high.

nw kw 01:44 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

same time all week some one is driving whith a plan

gc sf 00:51 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

I'm not sure it is worth sitting here today .. maybe better to come back in London .. as its looking like sideways price action with profit taking bias... the nikkei would have to break 17000 or 17500 for something drastic to occur.

gc sf 00:44 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

I believe Monday is holiday something like Labor Day.

Provo John 00:30 GMT November 21, 2014
Asia

Tokyo markets are closed today?

GVI Forex Blog 00:10 GMT November 21, 2014
Forex News
Reply   
The U.S. dollar paused for breath on Friday as its recent rapid ascent on the yen attracted profit taking, though the market mood remains bullish on the currency given the outperformance of the U.S. economy.

FOREX-Dollar takes a breather, upbeat data underpins

FW CS 00:02 GMT November 21, 2014
eurusd

Viies
agree on downside a close below 1.2438 and 1.2390 makes euro ugly. seems like we got a bit more to run on upside though first

 




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